Thursday, 30 October 2025

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 30.10.25


A bit of a come down from last week's Senedd action, but there were still six council vacancies to decide this week.  Labour were defending one seat, in Hertfordshire, hoping that Reform and the Tories would cancel each other out.  As it turned out, Reform surged past the previously second placed Tories and straight into top spot.  The swing to Reform from both Tories and Labour was fairly even.

So, with their only seat lost, how did Labour fair elsewhere?  It was the same old story, with their vote share down in all five seats the party contested.

The Tories had a slightly better night, successfully holding off Reform in one of two defences.  They technically lost a seat in Stirling, but the outgoing councillor had won his seat as part of a triple vacancy and finished second to the SNP.  That's why the figures look a bit odd in that result.  Likewise, the figures look off in Thanet, the only seat in which the Tories increased their vote share.  Both they and Reform benefited from the absence of the local Thanet Independents, who secured more than 40 per cent of the vote last time round.

That Thanet seat went to Reform, in their second gain of the night.  However, they lost a seat in Worcestershire to the Lib Dems, despite only a marginal down turn in their vote share.  The outgoing Reform councillor was by all accounts useless, having failed to attend a single council meeting in her brief four months in office.

The Lib Dems enjoyed a routine hold in Kent.

Finally, we must address the 'Green surge' once more.  Results are still not reflecting their impressive polling numbers, which have them beating both Labour and the Lib Dems.  While this narrative continues to play out in the news, they have not won a single by-election and have lost the only  seat they were defending.  This week, the best that this supposed rising force in British politics could muster was a third place in Kent.  Their vote share in the five seats contested was up in two and down in three.  Where's the surge?

Hendon, Barnet London Borough Council

Con: 1,656 (46.8%) -2.5%
Ref: 1,069 (30.2%) New
Lab: 423 (12.0%) -14.8%
Grn: 201 (5.7%) -2.4%
LDm: 107 (3.0%) -2.2%
REU: 81 (2.3%) New

Con HOLD

Roebuck, Stevenage Borough Council

Ref: 513 (39.2%) New
Lab: 353  (26.9%) -12.4%
Con: 157 (12.0%) -11.4%
LDm: 148 (11.3%) -5.5%
Grn: 139 (10.6%) -4.9%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Stirling East, Stirling Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 808 (36.4%) +2.8%
Lab: 530 (23.9%) -1.6%
Ref: 517 (23.3%) +9.2%
Con: 147 (6.6%) -5.6%
Grn: 141 (6.3%) +1.2%
LDm: 79 (3.6%) +0.7%

SNP GAIN from Con (elected stage 6)

Garlinge, Thanet District Council

Ref: 348 (44.6%) New
Con: 250 (32.0%) +10.6%
Lab: 62 (7.9%) -12.3%
Grn: 61 (7.8%) -1.3%
LDm: 36 (4.6%) New
Ind: 24 (3.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

St John's, Tunbridge Wells Borough Council

LDm: 629 (53.3%) +2.1%
Ref: 177 (15.0%) -1.2%
Grn: 160 (13.5%) +6.3%
Ind: 105 (8.9%) +4.8%
Con: 90 (7.6%) -3.6%
Ind: 20 (1.7%) -0.1%

LDm HOLD

Bromsgrove South, Worcestershire County Council

LDm: 1,416 (51.9%) +20.3%
Ref: 911 (33.4%) -1.5%
Con: 309 (11.3%) -5.8%
Lab: 92 (3.4%) -4.1%

LDm GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative
Ref = Reform UK
Lab = Labour
Grn = Green
LDm = Liberal Democrat
REU = Rejoin European Union
SNP = Scottish National Party
Ind = Independents and local groups

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