It was a trio of Labour defences on Thursday, with one week to go before the big day in Gorton and Denton. After accurately predicting last week's results, we got two out of three correct yesterday.
Plaid and Reform pushed Labour into third place in Caerphilly, while they fell to the Lib Dems in Cleveland. Technically, the latter seat was vacated by an independent, as the incumbent quit Labour last October.
The result we didn't see coming was a gain for the Greens in Leicester, which may be symptomatic of a shift away from Labour in certain ethno-religious communities. Stoneygate ward was 63 per cent Muslim according to the 2021 census.
It is probably for similar reasons that the smart money is going on the Greens to win in Gorton and Denton next week. The Muslim population in the constituency stood at almost 30 per cent in 2021 and in a tight three way contest, this could be enough for the Greens to edge it if there is a big swing from Labour in that demographic. This time next week we will know, but any predictions made will have been reached with very little degree of confidence. Gorton and Denton has become notoriously difficult to call...
Van, Caerphilly County Borough Council
Pld: 374 (43.3%) -1.9%
Ref: 246 (28.5%) New
Lab: 231 (26.8%) -28.0%
LDm: 12 (1.4%) New
Pld GAIN from Lab
Stoneygate, Leicester City Council
Grn: 1,195 (30.4%) +22.9%
Lab: 1,089 (27.7%) -12.8%
Ind: 638 (16.2%) New
Ind: 453 (11.5%) New
Con: 327 (8.3%) -15.3%
Ref: 106 (2.7%) New
LDm: 62 (1.6%) -5.9%
Ind: 61 (1.6%) New
Grn GAIN from Lab
Zetland, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council
LDm: 446 (50.5%) +15.2%
Lab: 191 (21.6%) -25.2%
Ref: 119 (13.5%) New
Grn: 65 (7.4%) New
Con: 62 (7.0%) -10.9%
LDm GAIN from Lab
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