It's a real mixed bag this week, with a defence each for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems. There's also a free-for-all in Devon, which is by far the most difficult to predict. The Fremington ward of North Devon DC overwhelmingly backed independent candidates in its last election, with the closest political party (the Conservatives) trailing by more than a thousand votes. There are no independent candidates this time, making a forecast very tricky. Any party could win here and we expect the Greens to do reasonably well, but we'll plump for a Conservative gain.
Up in Bury it's a notional Conservative defence, with the incumbent having left the party last year following an acrimonious split in the local party. This is another tricky seat to predict, with Reform likely to poll well here. Reform's presence could potentially help Labour overtake the Tories, but we think the Conservatives will hold and Labour will end up no better than third (they were second last time round). The independent will also poll well.
Down to Luton next, where we have a very strong Lib Dem ward. Their biggest problem in defending the seat will be the nature of the incumbent's departure - he was kicked off the council for not attending a single meeting in six months. The main threat to them here will probably be the independent candidate, but we expect their electioneering machine to overcome all challengers and hold the seat.
Finally, we're back up to Lancashire for a Labour seat vacated by an incumbent who upped sticks and left Labour Britain to set up home in Sicily. We can see Labour plummeting to at least third here as this will come down to a straight fight between the insurgent parties - Reform versus the Greens. We expect the latter to triumph, largely thanks to the collapsing Labour vote.
Results will appear below.
Tottington, Bury Metropolitian Borough Council
(Con defence)
Wigmore, Luton Borough Council
(LDm defence)
Fremington, North Devon District Council
(free-for-all, was Ind)
Hareholme & Waterfoot, Rossendale Borough Council
(Lab defence)
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