COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.04.26

Thursday delivered a set of fascinating results, with four gains from four wards and some spectacular shifts in voting.  We predicted a mixed bag of results and called one out of four correctly, a step down from our 50 per cent success rate last week.

The free-for-all in Devon was particularly difficult to predict, with no independent candidates in a ward that overwhelmingly backed them last time round.  The Tories were the closest political party on that occasion, but were more than a thousand votes behind the winning candidate.  We thought they would triumph in this well-to-do rural ward, but they slumped to fourth as newcomers the Greens and Reform pushed past them.  However, it was the Lib Dems who stormed to victory, thanks to a huge surge that easily bested second placed Reform.  Labour finished last with just 12 votes.

It was a notional Conservative defence in Bury, with the incumbent having left the party last year following an acrimonious split in the local party.  We predicted a Tory hold, with Reform polling well and Labour slumping to at least third.  Labour did indeed find themselves in third, but it was Reform who triumphed, coming from nowhere to deny the Tories a comeback.

In Luton there was a very strong Lib Dem ward up for grabs.  Their biggest problem in defending the seat was the nature of the incumbent's departure - he was kicked off the council for not attending a single meeting in six months.  Despite this, we saw the Lib Dems holding off a challenge from the independent.  As it turned out, the independent trailed in a pitiful last place and it was Reform who were victorious.  Once again they stormed into first place as newcomers to the ward.

Finally, we get to the Labour defence in Rossendale, Lancashire.  This seat was vacated by an incumbent who upped sticks and left Labour Britain to set up home in Sicily.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Starmer and Reeves.  We predicted a Green gain, with Labour plummeting to at least third and Reform a strong second.  We were spot on with this forecast, as the Greens saw off newcomers Reform by 54 votes.

The Greens did not fare particularly well in the other three seats, with two third places and a fourth.  Reform, on the other hand, were top two finishes all round.  The May elections are now just five weeks away and it's going to be very, very interesting.

Tottington, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 929 (39.5%) New Con: 627 (26.7%) -19.1% Lab: 346 (14.7%) -14.5% Grn: 257 (10.9%) New Ind: 193 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Wigmore, Luton Borough Council

Ref: 576 (32.9%) New

LDm: 533 (30.4%) -24.2%

Grn: 344 (19.6%) +10.5%

Lab: 170 (9.7%) -0.3%

Con: 116 (6.6%) -4.4%

Ind: 13 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Fremington, North Devon District Council

LDm: 752 (49.9%) +42.4%

Ref: 496 (32.9%) New

Grn: 131 (8.7%) New

Con: 116 (7.7%) -4.4%

Lab: 12 (0.8%) -7.8%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Hareholme & Waterfoot, Rossendale Borough Council

Grn: 636 (37.7%) +9.2% Ref: 582 (34.5%) New Lab: 324 (19.2%) -27.9% Con: 115 (6.8%) -17.6% LDm: 31 (1.8%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab