UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS
Aberdeen South
Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%
Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%
Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%
Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%
Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%
David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New
Con GAIN from SNP
A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign. This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month. The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015. The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019. Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion. The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections. Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).
Karl - SNP HOLD ✘
Rich - SNP HOLD ✘
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Lara Bird (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%
Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%
Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%
Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%
Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%
SNP HOLD
This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month. However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position. Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems. This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election. It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP. The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859. They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.
Karl - SNP HOLD ✔
Rich - SNP HOLD ✔
Makerfield
Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%) +0.7%
Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%
Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New
Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%
Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%
Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%
Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New
Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New
John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New
Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New
Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%) New
Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New
Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New
Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New
Lab HOLD
A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous. On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997. Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983. There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent. This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street. Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Lab HOLD ✔
POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS
Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council
(LDm defence x 3)
This election has been rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council. It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away. The Lib Dems usually romp home in this ward, although the boundaries were redrawn slightly for this election. Reform are the only newcomers.
Karl - LDm HOLD x 3
Rich - LDm HOLD x 3
Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council
Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%
Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New
WPB: 609 (18.4%) New
Grn: 200 (6.0%) New
Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%
Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%
Lab HOLD
Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate. The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents. Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform. George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.
Karl - Ind GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Springfield, Essex County Council
(LDm defence)
Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council seats, this was postponed after the passing of the incumbent. Reform are the only newcomers and will be looking to expand their existing majority on the council, alongside a second by-election elsewhere in the county.
Karl - LDm HOLD
Rich - LDm HOLD
Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council
(two seats)
Con: 1,084 (24.4%)
Con: 949 (21.3%)
Lab: 470 (10.6%)
Ref: 433 (9.7%)
Lab: 362 (8.1%)
Grn: 353 (7.9%)
Ref: 347 (7.8%)
Grn: 341 (7.7%)
LDm: 63 (1.4%)
LDm: 49 (1.1%)
Con HOLD x 2
This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away. Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share. The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent. The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.
Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔
Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1 ✘
COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS
Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council
Ref: 496 (33.8%) New
Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%
Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%
LDm: 178 (12.1%) New
Ref GAIN from Con
One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month. Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs. Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.
Karl - Con HOLD ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council
Ref: 357 (43.4%) New
Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%
Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%
Grn: 71 (8.6%) New
LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%
Ref GAIN from Con
The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way. There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Rayleigh West, Essex County Council
Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5%
LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9%
Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3%
Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%
Ind: 117 (2.7%) New
Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9%
Ind: 35 (0.8%) New
Con GAIN from Ref
This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections. Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office. Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below). Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out. The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✘
Rich - Ref HOLD ✘
Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council
Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%
Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%
Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%
LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%
Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%
Ind: 10 (0.3%) New
Grn HOLD
The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor. Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor. This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens. There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.
Karl - Grn HOLD ✔
Rich - Grn HOLD ✔
Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council
Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%
Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%
Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%
LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%
Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%
Con HOLD
A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote. This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.
Karl - Con HOLD ✔
Rich - Con HOLD ✔
Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council
Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%
Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%
LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%
Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%
Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%
Con GAIN from Ref
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details). The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion. There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out. Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✘
Rich - Ref HOLD ✘
Mumbles, Swansea Council
Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%
Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%
Ref: 458 (18.3%) New
Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%
Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%
Ind: 118 (4.7%) New
LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%
Con HOLD
A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd. The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025. Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour. It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - Con HOLD ✔
Morriston, Swansea Council
Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%
Ref: 882 (31.8%) New
Pld: 569 (21.9%) New
Grn: 107 (4.1%) New
LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%
Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%
Lab HOLD
Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78. His daughter became his successor, but only just. She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - Pld GAIN ✘
Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council
Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%
Ref: 300 (34.1%) New
Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%
Ind: 78 (8.2%) New
Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%
LDm: 8 (0.9%) New
Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%
Pld HOLD
This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd. Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council
Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%
Ref: 105 (22.0%) New
Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%
Ind: 22 (4.6%) New
YrP: 20 (4.2%) New
Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%
Grn: 11 (2.3%) New
LDm: 2 (0.4%) New
Pld HOLD
The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month. This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around. Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn. Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council
Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%
Ref: 86 (37.4%) New
Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%
Grn: 11 (4.7%) New
Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%
Pld HOLD
The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member. Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut. Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Karl leads Richey 4-1 going into week five and looks set to hold that lead, given that both have gone mostly like for like this week.
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