Thursday, 8 October 2026

BY-ELECTIONS 08.10.26


We had a major by-election this week, that to replace our dear departed Prime Minister.  Yes, that's right, it was the by-election to replace Sir Keir - despite the plank having previously promised to see out his Westminster term in full.  There were also four council seats up for grabs.

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTION

Holborn and St Pancras

Sagal Abdi-Wali (Lab) 12,292 (45.1%) -3.7%
Zack Polanski (Grn) 8,928 (32.8%) +22.4%
Ewan Cameron (Con) 1,922 (7.1%) -0.1%
Peter Newman (Ref) 1,612 (5.9%) -0.2%
Patrick Stillman (LDm) 924 (3.4%) -2.4%
Tyler Johnson (Res) 692 (2.5%) New
George Galloway (WPB) 314 (1.1%) New
Briony Kapoor (REU) 236 (0.8%) New
Barmy Brunch (Loon) 87 (0.3%) New
Helen Spiby-Vann (CPA) 63 (0.2%) New
Clare Fischer (Clm) 51 (0.2%) New
Ben Walker (UKIP) 51 (0.2%) New
Ketankumar Pipaliya (UKV) 23 (0.1%) New
Jonathan Silberman (CmL) 9 (<0.1%) New
Tom Darwood 7 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of a vile man, ostensibly - and ominously - to concentrate his efforts on 'international affairs'.  Like Blair and Johnson before him, Starmer went as far as he possibly could in decimating our nation, before jumping ship to spread the poison around the world on behalf of the globalist project.  Odds on favourite to replace him as an MP was a Somali refugee and the current leader of Camden London Borough Council.  She was only appointed council leader in May, after Labour had clung onto the council despite losing 17 council seats - 10 of which to the Greens, who are more dominant to the east of Camden.  Two local authorities over they demolished Labour in May to take control of Hackney (which now has a pink haired Alphabet Person for its council leader).  As to be expected for a Westminster by-election, the ballot paper in Holborn and St Pancras was a crowded affair on Thursday with 15 candidates vying for the position.  Candidates from across the political spectrum were represented, but with the vacancy located in woke north London this was always going to be a left-wing tussle, as Green Party leader Zack Polanski also looked to succeed Starmer.  As widely expected, Polanksi failed, but the Greens exceeded expectations.  They more than doubled their vote from 2024, slashing Labour's majority from 11,572 to just 3,364.  The Greens moved up into second, the spot vacated by hard left independent Andrew Feinstein, who stood here in 2024 and did a little majority slashing of his own.  All the main parties moved up a place, while maintaining the same 2024 order - the Tories, followed by Reform and the Lib Dems.  However, the Lib Dems lost their deposit on this occasion.  Reformers may feel slightly aggrieved with Restore, whose 692 votes probably robbed them of third place.  By alphabetical coincidence, the candidates for Restore Britain, Rejoin EU and Reform UK were all sandwiched together slap bang in the middle of the ballot paper, all complete with their varying shades of blue logos.  Rejoin EU campaigners may not get hounded and screamed at by crazed leftists when they are out leafleting, but they finished a pitiful eighth, one place ahead of the Raving Loonies and less than half the vote of Restore.  George Galloway, who was absent from the count (and the UK), finished in seventh and had little bearing on the result - as some Greens had feared.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

We also had four council contests, with a defence each for the SNP, the Conservatives, Labour and Reform.

Midstocket/Rosemount, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 861 (27.9%) -9.9%
Con: 743 (24.1%) -0.5%
Lab: 535 (17.3%) -4.2%
Grn: 330 (10.7%) +1.4%
Ref: 323 (10.5%) New
LDm: 192 (6.2%) -0.7%
Ind: 67 (2.2%) New
Ind: 37 (1.2%) New

SNP HOLD (elected at stage 8)

Triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who had represented this ward just north east of the city centre since 2007.  Aberdeen used to be solid Labour territory, with the party in control from 1980 up to 2002.  It has since been in the limbo land of no overall control, with multiple coalition authorities, including a highly unusual four year stretch of Lab-Con partnership.  The council has also had minority Lib Dem and SNP administrations, with these two parties sharing power since 2022.  The SNP managed to hold this seat on Thursday, despite an almost double digit drop in vote share.  There was a small swing to their pro-indy comrades the Greens, but surprisingly there appeared to be an additional swing to Reform UK.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔
Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley, Amber Valley Borough Council

(Con defence)

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, for unspecified reasons.  This rural ward is sandwiched between the market towns of Belper and Heanor, in a borough that has bounced between Tory, Labour  and no overall control since the 1980s.  The longest period of unbroken control was a 14 year Conservative run between 2000 and 2014.  It has gone blue twice more since then, but is currently run by a minority Labour administration.  There was a by-election here in May 2025, in which Labour were pushed into third by the Greens.  There is no independent or Lib Dem standing this time, but both Reform and Restore are new entries.  Will the latter cancel each other out again?

Karl - Con HOLD
Rich - Con HOLD

Myatt's Fields, Lambeth London Borough Council

Lab: 1,026 (46.7%) +10.3%
Grn: 815 (37.1%) -2.0%
LDm: 189 (8.6%) +1.5%
Con: 74 (3.4%) -1.8%
Ref: 58 (2.6%) -2.7%
CPA: 26 (1.2%) New
SPGB: 9 (0.4%) New

Lab HOLD

While all the attention was north of the river in Camden, there was a council seat up for grabs south of it - and another Labour defence.  This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, who died from cancer.  Her age is not known, but judging from photographs she was probably in her 60s.  This is a fairly mixed ward, with high levels of deprivation in some parts and heavily regenerated or 'gentrified' parts.  Like most London wards, the native population is a minority, but not overwhelmingly so.  The Greens gained one of two Labour seats here in May, with the Labour incumbent clinging onto her seat by just 17 votes.  There was no independent or Trade Unionist and Socialist candidate on Thursday, but entering the fray were the Socialist Party of Great Britain and the Christian Peoples Alliance.  The newcomers received pitiful numbers of votes, with Reform and the Tories not far ahead as the the left-wing frontrunners battled it out.  Once again, the Greens slipped further away from Labour, unable to repeat their May 7 gain in this ward.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Town, Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council

Lab: 431 (46.2%) +18.0%
Ref: 249 (26.7%) -0.4%
Grn: 115 (12.3%) -9.2%
Con: 110 (11.8%) -4.3%
LDm: 27 (2.9%) -4.0%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, citing various reasons, but stupidity appeared to be a significant factor.  She was elected on May 7 this year, but upon being informed of her victory (apparently she did not even attend the count) she rocked up at the council house for Kidsgrove Town Council - only to be informed she had not been elected to that authority.  She later sent her resignation letter to that same council and complained that she had received 'very little to no training for this role' (it is not clear if this was a dig at Reform or Newcastle-under-Lyne Council, or a combination of both).  Kidsgrove Council eventually forwarded her resignation to Newcastle-under-Lyme Council and she officially left office citing health reasons.  Reform took control of the council in May, ending a five year run of Conservative control, but the council is set to be abolished in 2028 anyway.  Perhaps just as well, judging by Thursday's result.  Reform did not disgrace themselves, but an 18 per cent jump in Labour support does not bode well.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Richey led Karl by five points going into this week's round of the head-to-head and that won't change with the pair having gone like-for-like across the board.

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