Six vacant seats were on Thursday, with two defences apiece for the Tories and Reform, one for Labour and a free-for-all. For the second week in a row, three of the vacancies arose through the death of the incumbent.
It was a fairly mediocre week for Labour, with vote share down in three of the five seats the party contested. Despite this, they emerged with three seats - including two gains from Reform in Northumberland. One of the latter had been vacated by a hapless short-lived Reform councillor, giving Labour an easy ride to victory. However, Labour were clearly helped across all three seats by the presence of Restore Britain candidates. In the other Northumberland seat, Reform missed out by 60 votes, with Restore garnering 76 votes in last place. In Blackpool, Reform missed out on a gain from Labour by just 39 votes, with Restore in third place with 79 votes.
Restore Britain are also eating into Reform's overall polling figures, extending Labour's lead in the polls. Whereas Reform were leading every single poll with Starmer at the helm, they have only led one poll in the last three weeks, and that was by a solitary point. In one recent poll, Reform trailed Labour by six points. In that very same poll, Restore garnered six points.
It is now more than two weeks since Reform last held or won a council seat. These are troubling times for Nigel Farage's party and there are worrying signs that the next general election could turn out to be just another Lab-Con Uniparty battle after all. That likelihood is made all the more likely by the entrance of Rupert Lowe's party.
Claremont, Blackpool Council
Lab: 458 (41.8%) -10.5%
Ref: 419 (38.2%) New
Res: 79 (7.2%) New
Con: 62 (5.7%) -15.9%
Grn: 44 (4.0%) New
LDm: 18 (1.6%) -10.4%
Ind: 16 (1.5%) New
Lab HOLD
Triggered by the death of the 86-year-old incumbent. He was the UK's longest serving councillor at the time of his death, having served the same council ward for a continuous period of 53 years. He was also Labour's first Blackpool council leader, from 1991-2000, and the party has maintained control ever since. A fat lot of good Labour have done for this incredibly deprived ward just north of the town centre. Despite rampant social problems, voters backed Labour again in 2023, with their candidates securing more than twice the vote of the Conservatives. On Thursday, they clung onto this seat by just 39 votes, thanks to a split vote on the right.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Wick & East Caithness, Highland Council
(first preference votes)
LDm: 1,522 (50.4%) +20.6%
Ind: 714 (23.6%) New
SNP: 424 (14.0%) -11.3%
Ref: 283 (9.4%) New
Con: 79 (2.6%) -12.5%
LDm GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 1)
The most northern council ward on mainland Britain, which includes the famed village of John o'Groats. The vacancy was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who was the first councillor to stand down in response to a very unsavoury scandal. He was one of six members on the council's licencing committee that voted to allow a convicted rapist - currently serving more than six years for raping a teenager in the back of his cab - to keep his taxi licence. Three others have also since resigned. All three seats were up for grabs here in 2022 and they were split between the Lib Dems, SNP and the disgraced incumbent. Labour dropped out altogether from Thursday's contest, while the Lib Dems stormed to victory with no need for secondary votes. They finished more than a thousand votes ahead of the SNP.
Karl - LDm GAIN ✔
Rich - LDm GAIN ✔
Long Whatton & Diseworth, North West Leicestershire District Council
Con: 576 (55.5%) -4.6%
Ref: 204 (19.7%) New
Lab: 147 (14.2%) -18.4%
Res: 55 (5.3%) New
Grn: 34 (3.3%) New
LDm: 22 (2.1%) -5.2%
Con HOLD
Triggered by the death of the 70-year-old incumbent, following a cancer battle. He had served an unbroken period of 27 years on the council, having initially been elected in the 1980s and regaining his seat in 1999. It was a three-horse race for this seat in 2023 and the incumbent improved his lead over Labour at a time in which the Tories were not particularly popular at large in the country. On Thursday, the Tory candidate managed to fend off Reform with relative ease, as Labour slipped to third with a significant swing to Reform.
Karl - Con HOLD ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Amble, Northumberland County Council
Lab: 439 (38.8%) +0.4%
Ref: 379 (33.5%) -10.9%
Con: 237 (21.0%) +3.8%
Res: 76 (6.7%) New
Lab GAIN from Ref
Triggered by the sudden death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who had been elected to this semi-rural ward last year. Northumberland is very much a battleground between Reform and the Conservatives, with Reform emerging from last year's election just three seats behind the Tories. These stunning gains for Reform tipped the council into no overall control, but they have since slipped further behind the Tories as a result of expulsions, resignations, a by-election defeat and now death. As predicted, Labour snuck to victory by the slender margin of 60 votes, helped by the presence of Rupert Lowe's project.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✔
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔
Hirst, Northumberland County Council
Lab: 350 (50.1%) +7.0%
Ref: 210 (30.0%) -20.0%
Res: 72 (10.3%) New
Con: 29 (4.1%) -2.8%
LDm: 27 (3.9%) New
Ind: 11 (1.6%) New
Lab GAIN from Ref
If the above Northumberland ward posed a tricky defence for Reform, this one was a mountain to climb. The trigger for this contest was the disqualification of the incumbent, who had failed to show up at a single council meeting in six months. He had been elected last year and like the above vacancy, it was a tight victory over Labour. However, he soon found himself without a party as he was expelled from Reform as a result of online remarks, which included an expressed desire to 'shoot Starmer' given the opportunity. It was a comfortable gain for Labour on Thursday, with a 140 vote margin over Reform.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✔
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔
Forth & Endrick, Stirling Council
(first preference votes)
Con: 1,188 (34.2%) -1.8%
SNP: 1,057 (30.5%) -4.8%
Lab: 380 (11.0%) -3.1%
Grn: 317 (9.1%) New
Ref: 298 (8.6%) New
LDm: 175 (5.0%) -0.7%
Ind: 55 (1.6%) New
Con HOLD (elected at stage 7)
Triggered by the death of the 76-year-old incumbent, who had been suffering from prostate cancer for the past two years. He won the second of three seats here in 2022, with the SNP topping the poll on first preferences. This is a vast sprawling council ward to the north of Glasgow that takes in much of the Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park, including the banks of the famed loch itself. The Scottish Family Party, who finished last in 2022, did not stand on Thursday. It took seven stages for the Conservatives to hold the seat, but pushing the SNP into second place on first preferences is the key takeaway.
Karl - SNP GAIN ✘
Rich - Con HOLD ✔
A good week for our tipsters, with Karl pulling another point back in the head to head. Both Karl and Richey are comfortably maintaining a 50 per cent plus accuracy rate.





















































