BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted.  That said, Labour's performance in by-elections has improved somewhat since Starmer's resignation.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

(Lab defence)

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power has cost taxpayers around £5million to stage this by-election, which Labour is expected to win by a healthy margin.  Their candidate is Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

This election uses the supplementary vote system.  If no candidate achieves more than 50 per cent, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes (second choice votes) are then added to the existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.

Burnham did not need a run-off in 2024, as he achieved 63 per cent on the first count.  The second placed Conservative candidate was a whopping 351,803 votes behind.  Reform finished fourth on that occasion, but they are strongly tipped to force a run-off this time.  In the most recent More in Common poll, they were 20 points behind Labour on the first count and 30 points behind in the run-off.

A result here is not expected until Friday afternoon.

There were also five council by-elections, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.

TOON TUESDAY #112

A short and simple Toon Tuesday this week, in honour of all those retarded leftists who are so ideologically blinded that they cannot accept harsh reality even when it slaps them in their own faces.  Labour backbencher Kate Osborne was a prime example of this mindset.  In the wake of the latest vehicle ramming attack in Europe, she declared that it was all down to the rise of 'homophobic rhetoric', pushed by the likes of GB News and Reform UK.  She went to great lengths to avoid mentioning Islam or Muslims in relation to the attack, which of course was carried by an Islamist.

If you appreciate the work of SKS Cartoon, you can give them a follow on X.

MEME MONDAY #93

Facebook content has been intermittent as a direct result of Karl's hospitalisation.  Richey is trying his best to create and upload some content, but admittedly it has been a struggle thus far.

Mon 20 Jul - 172 shares

Mon 20 Jul - 62 shares

Mon 20 Jul - 119 shares

Fri 24 Jul - 5 shares.  The first meme uploaded by Richey was taking one of
Karl's graphics from last year and adding some text to commemorate an
amusing anniversary

Sun 26 Jul - 54 shares.  Richey's first original meme in the current run, the
font will become familiar

Sun 26 Jul - 9 shares

Karl produced two Facebook Stories ready for Monday's handover of power.  Richey will try his hand at Facebook Stories this week.

Richey's on his own for now, but you can show your appreciation by buying him and the poorly one a very reasonably priced pint each here 

THE BURNHAM PLOY

Earlier this month, Richey suggested on YouTube that a savvy Andy Burnham would start to row back on some of Starmer's dystopian policies.  Sure enough, the new PM is playing it smart and it's already paying off according to the most recent national poll conducted by More in Common.  The pollster has Labour now leading Reform, something the party has not achieved since April 2025.  It appears that the 'Burnham bounce' may be in play after all.

In Richey's latest video, he implores voters to shake their fickle ways and understand that in the long term - nothing will change.  Burnham is conning the electorate in order to get himself a full five year term, at which point he will begin taking us back down the same dark road of digital tyranny that Starmer had put us on.

Watch below (11 minute watch)

We are unable to edit videos throughout Karl's absence, including links to our fundraising pages, but you can help us out here with as little as £4.

BOATWATCH #69

An 11 day lull in boat pickups ended last Wednesday with a flurry of arrivals that continued into the weekend.  Among the pickups was a record number of boat colonists in a single vessel.  On Thursday, an astonishing 165 colonists were brought ashore by the laughably named 'Border Force', having sailed into the Channel in a 40 ft long dinghy.

This figure obliterated the previous all time record, which was set just over a fortnight ago on 10 July.  128 colonists squeezed into that particular dinghly.

A 19-year-old Sudanese man is due to appear before magistrates on Monday, charged with endangering life at sea, in relation to last Thursday's record crossing.

Total = 881

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.07.26

Five council seats were filled this week - three Tory defences across the south of England and a pair of Reform defences in Essex.  With Karl out of action, possibly for some time, head-to-head forecasts are on hold.

Labour contested four of the five seats, with all eyes on any signs of a 'Burnham bounce'.  The headline results will undoubtedly be two Labour gains from Reform, something unheard of during Starmer's reign.  However, those results were skewed by the circumstances surrounding the departure of the incumbents.  Elsewhere, there was nothing for Labour to crow about.  They suffered an almost double digit dip in vote share in Kent, as Reform came from nowhere to push them down from third to fourth.  They were new entries in Gloucestershire, but finished a distant fourth, while fellow newcomers Reform garnered almost three times as many votes.

Exmouth Brixington, East Devon District Council

Con: 537 (35.2%) -2.1%

LDm: 450 (29.5%) -3.1%

Ref: 439 (28.7%) New

Grn: 101 (6.6%) -2.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, for reasons that she did not make public.  The Conservatives won all three seats in this ward in 2023 and held one of them in a by-election the following year, albeit with a reduced majority.  They managed to increase their majority slightly this time, as the Lib Dems slipped further behind.  Labour, who finished third previously with 339 votes, dropped out this time.  Reform were the only party that benefited from Labour's absence.

Cuxton, Halling & Riverside, Medway Council

Ref: 838 (35.7%) New

Con: 726 (30.9%) -12.9%

Grn: 482 (20.5%) -11.4%

Lab: 269 (11.4%) -9.1%

LDm: 35 (1.5%) -2.3%

Ref GAIN from Con

Triggered by the death of the 74-year-old Conservative incumbent.  He had served as a councillor for more than 30 years, but had reportedly been suffering from vascular dementia for some time.  This begs the question as to why he did not stand down earlier.  He and his Tory colleague won both seats in this ward in 2023, a set of elections that ended 20 years of Conservative control in Medway.  Labour required a significant Burnham bounce in order to add this seat to their ruling majority, but in fact they slumped from third to fourth as all the parties ceded vote share to Reform.  A stunning gain from scatch for Farage's party.

Longwell Green, South Gloucestershire Council

Con: 951 (37.3%) -11.2%

Ref: 698 (27.4%) New

LDm: 511 (20.0%) -10.4%

Lab: 246 (9.7%) New

Grn: 143 (5.6%) New

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, who quit his role in order to join the Royal Navy.  The Tories won both seats here in 2023, a contest in which they went up against only two Lib Dems and an independent.  The independent received more than 600 votes, but did not stand this time.  Of the three new entries, Reform topped the pile, with an underwhelming result for Labour.

Grays Riverside, Thurrock Council

Lab: 389 (30.2%) +3.8%

Ref: 362 (28.1%) -5.1%

Grn: 354 (27.5%) -1.9%

Con: 182 (14.1%) +3.1%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The first of an Essex double bill triggered by Reform councillors standing down just two weeks after being elected on May 7.  The newly elected Riverside candidate said he needed to focus on supporting a family member with a serious illness.  It must have been a sudden illness, either that or he didn't expect to win.  Reform swept to power in Thurrock on May 7, taking all but four of the council's 49 seats.  Labour went from controlling the council with 26 seats, to just two seats.  They managed to double that tally on Thursday, thanks to a poor show by Reform.  In Riverside, Labour sought to capitalise on historic social media posts by the defending Reform candidate.  These posts dated back more than 12 years and were mostly of a misogynistic nature, alongside the use of a racial slur and some anti-disabled comments.  It's difficult to present this result as evidence of a 'Burnham bounce'.

Grays Town, Thurrock Council

Lab: 673 (37.0%) +5.3%

Ref: 491 (27.0%) -7.8%

Ind: 235 (13.0%) New

Con: 224 (12.3%) +1.3%

Grn: 160 (8.8%) -7.3%

LDm: 34 (1.9%) -4.5%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The newly elected Reform councillor stood down after May 7, citing 'a change in personal circumstances'.  With just a fortnight having passed, those circumstances must have changed pretty damn quick!  As with the Riverside vacancy (see above), Reform chose one of its four unsuccessful candidates from May 7 in order to defend the seat.  He failed to do so, with Labour climbing from second place to take an unlikely gain.  Perhaps Reform activists had been diverted to Clacton during the campaign, or perhaps this really was a Burnham bounce.  Multiple factors were at play in the two Thurrock seats, not least an electorate unhappy with being asked to vote again so soon due to poor candidate vetting.

DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

Our campaign suffered a major blow earlier this week.  On Monday afternoon, Karl was taken ill at work.  He went home, but his condition did not improve overnight.  Having managed to obtain a GP appointment the following day, an ambulance was called upon examination.  On Wednesday he underwent extensive emergency surgery that lasted more than four hours.  One doctor informed him that if he had not gone to his GP when he did, complications from the diverticulitis would have probably killed him within days.

I have spoken with him this morning and he is understandably down, but glad to be alive.  He will remain in hospital for up to two weeks, after which it will take up to three months for his internal organs (what's left of them) to heal.  I will travel to the Midlands to see him over the coming weekend.

These unfortunate circumstances will immediately affect BTLP content across every platform, with the exception of X, which is largely my domain.  I will do what I can to keep content ticking over.  I have access to thousands of memes that Karl has produced over the years, including some generic unpublished memes that were intended for rainy days such as this.  I can also produce some very basic memes myself.  I can still film my occasional video monologues, but with no editing capablities they will be stripped to basics.  As the main author on this site, I expect that most of the regualar features will be unaffected.  Toon Tuesday was cancelled this week, but I hope to get it back on next week.  The return of Woke Wednesdays continues to be pushed back, but we hope that it will return one day, if only as a fortnightly feature.

In normal circumstances it is not possible to realise our ambitions, as we are severely restricted by work commitments and a lack of funding.  We are not monetised by either YouTube or X, and Meta only pays us for the main Facebook page (monetisation was removed for the backup page two years ago).  We have both invested money over the years and Karl was in the process of procuring me a sound-proof microphone for my outdoor monologues.  We don't like asking for money - no-one does - but it seriously helps and costs as little as £4.  You can do so here or via PayPal here.

The most important thing right now is for Karl to rest and recover.

Richey

MEME MONDAY #92

Today was to be the day Keir Starmer wrapped himself in England football glory and declared a bank holiday in celebration.  Never mind, Sir Squeaky!

Mon 13 Jul - 30 shares.  Fleet is from a coal mining family, which makes
her snooty comment particularly disrespectful.  She later deleted it and
apologised.  Some people in the comments liksaid there was more than a
little Cruela de Vil about her!

Tue 14 Jul - 36 shares.  It wasn't to be

Wed 15 Jul - 78 shares

Thu 16 Jul - 40 shares

Thu 16 Jul - 94 shares

Thu 16 Jul - 66 shares

Fri 17 Jul - 42 shares.  Time will tell if King Andy's reign will collapse as
quickly as that of his elected predecessor

Fri 17 Jul - 945 shares.  Our most popular meme after weeks of poor
distribution

Fri 17 Jul - 79 shares

Sat 18 Jul - 25 shares

Sun 19 Jul - 9 shares

Just the four Facebook Stories last week...

You can help us create more content and show your appreciation by purchasing a couple of metaphorical pints here or by donating via PayPal.  This helps fund our campaign and serves as a vital morale booster.  We can't do this without your support.

Thank you.

BEST STARMER MEMES 2020-26

Over the last three days we conducted a retrospective of Starmer's Labour leadership and premiership on our main Facebook page through the medium of Karl's memes.  This exercise was completed Monday lunch-time, in order to coincide with the handover of power from Starmer to Burnham.  Over a thousand Starmer-related memes were whittled down to a little over a hundred, in order to tell all the main events in the disastrous Starmer time-line.

Karl had intended to exhibit his all-time favourites here, including some that did not appear in the Facebook album, but was taken ill on Monday afternoon and is currently recovering in hospital.

The completed Starmer retrospective photo album can be found here.

BOATWATCH #68

A surprising mid-summer lull has kicked in, with eight straight days now since three boats were picked up on Friday 10 July.  With calm sunny weather in the Channel, one would expect crossings to be rampant.  Clearly, Starmer's close friendship with Macron is paying off.

RECORD BALLOT IN CLACTON

Nigel Farage campaigning in Clacton during the 2024 general election

The main parties may be absent from the Clacton ballot paper, but there will be plenty of candidates for voters to choose from in the August 13 clown show.  In fact, this by-election will have the most crowded ballot paper in British electoral history - a staggering total of 34 candidates.  This eclipses the previous record of 26 candidates, which was set in the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election.  That by-election was triggered in similar fashion by Tory MP David Davis, who resigned his seat and went on to win the resulting by-election.

Nominations for Clacton closed on Friday and the long list of candidates includes no less than 21 independents and the highly unusual presence of multiple candidates from the Monster Raving Loony Party - three in fact.  This was in part due to the already comical nature of the by-election, plus there are a few electoral records at stake - it's never been done before and the party leader (Howling Laud Hope) will break the record set by his predecessor (Screaming Lord Sutch) for most by-elections contested.

There are eight small parties standing, some of which we have never heard of, such as Consensus and Everyone is God.  The most prominent among these is Laurence Fox, whose Reclaim Party is standing for the first time since the 2023 Uxbridge by-election.  Fox lost his deposit that night, in fact his party have lost their deposit in every election they have ever contested - which isn't many, as this will be only their fifth outing.

The farcical nature of this by-election is epitomised by the litany of clown candidates standing.  Three Monster Raving Loons aside, we've got candidates calling themselves Joseph 77, Woke Trump Carzee and, of course, the establishment hope Count Binface.  The left-wing comedian who dons the costume was one of the earliest candidates to declare his intention to stand, which led to a media frenzy around him designed to present him as a potential challenger to Farage.  Labour donor Dale Vince offered to fund Binface's campaign to the tune of £180,000, while Andy Burnham said Binface "is carrying the hopes of the nation".

They are all desperate to frame the contest as a straightforward head-to-head, in an attempt to mock Farage and possibly unseat him or in the very least inflict a close call that would be a huge embarrassment to the Reform leader.  Defeat against Clown Binface would be career-ending for Farage and it's not beyond the realms of possibility - more people voted for other parties in 2024 than voted for Reform - and Brits do love a novelty act.  However, with 32 other candidates now in the hat, that possibility is greatly diminished.  It would also be highly unlikely that thousands of Tory voters would back a left-wing clown dressed as a bin.  The Conservatives finished second here in 2024.

No constituency polling has been published as yet, but betting markets strongly favour Farage.  He is currently odds on across the board, with most bookies only offering odds on him and Binface.  It does look incredibly likely that 32 candidates will lose their deposits, which will present the treasury with a tidy sum £16,000.

The full list of candidates is as follows.

Joseph 77 (Ind)

Adham Alkhatip (Forward)

Count Binface (Ind)

Nick The Incredible Flying Brick (Loon)

Tony Cane (Ind)

Woke Trump Carrzee (Ind)

William Clouston (SDP)

Rees Cowne (Ind)

Glenn Cummings (Ind)

Martin Davies (Freedom Alliance)

Andy Erlam (Ind)

Nigel Farage (Reform)

Attieh Fard (Ind)

Laurence Fox (Reclaim)

Tony Francis (Ind)

Robin Green (Ind)

Abi Hookway (Ind)

Howling Laud Hope (Loon)

Stephen Ingram (Ind)

Amy Morris (Ind)

Derrick Morris (Ind)

Martyn O'Brien (Ind)

Michael O'Keeffe (Ind)

Nick Pelas (Ind)

Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice)

Daniel Pocock (Ind)

James Ransley (Consensus)

Gerry Smith (Ind)

Kai Stephens (British Democrats)

John Stevens (Rejoin EU)

Baron Von Thunderclap (Loon)

Pamela Walford (Ind)

Marcus White (Everyone is God)

Marc Wilkinson (Ind)

Clacton 2024 general election result

Nigel Farage (Ref) 21,225 (46.2%) New

Giles Watling (Con) 12,820 (27.9%) -44.0%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (Lab) 7,448 (16.2%) +0.6%

Matthew Bensilum (LDm) 2,016 (4.4%) -1.8%

Natasha Osben (Grn) 1,935 (4.2%) +1.3%

Tony Mack (Ind) 317 (0.7%) New

Andrew Pemberton (UKIP) 116 (0.3%) New

Craig Jamieson (Clm) 48 (0.1%) New

Tasos Papanastasiou (Hrt) 33 (0.1%) New

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.07.26

We had a county-wide election this week, but it wasn't for the council.  The position of Police and Crime Commissioner in Norfolk was up for grabs...

Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner

Colin Sutton (Ref) 32,647 (26.7%) New

Matthew Taylor (Con) 18,348 (15.0%) -18.9%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 16,907 (13.8%) -2.0%

Marcus Pearcey (Ind) 16,402 (13.4%) New

Beth Jones (Lab) 14,192 (11.6%) -23.6%

Mark Buckton (Res) 13,319 (10.9%) New

Christopher Brown (LDm) 10,499 (8.6%) -6.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Labour won this election in 2024, with a relatively narrow victory over the Conservatives.  This time the result wasn't even close and Labour crashed to fifth.  Police and Crime Commissioners are being abolished in two years time, with the responsibilities being transferred into the remit of elected mayors.  This announcement last year led to a backlash from Norfolk's PCC, who quit Labour in anguish, accusing the government of a 'lack of consultation'.  She continued in the role as an independent, before vacating the post last month due to a family illness.  She also left her role as a district councillor (see below).  There were a few new faces on the PCC ballot paper this time, all stumping up £500 for the privilege.  All four parties saved their deposits last time, as it proved this time around - every single candidate surpassed the required five per cent mark in order to get their deposit back.  This included Restore Britain, who were hoping for a decent result as Rupert Lowe's constituency falls entirely within the catchment area.  Any hopes they may have had of denting Reform's chances were not realised, as Reform won with an impressive majority of 14,299 (compared to Labour's 1,888 majority in 2024).  Reform's first ever PCC is highly respected former detective Colin Sutton, who led various high profile murder investigations during a long career.  This has been a costly election to the taxpayer, with a bill of £2million that on a 17.1 per cent turnout worked out at more than £16 per vote!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

There were also eight council seats to be decided this week, all of which fell inside England and all but one sit across a central belt from Staffordshire in the west to Norfolk in the east.  The only exception is a seat in the Rushmoor borough of Hampshire.

Dereham Toftwood, Breckland District Council

Con: 458 (45.8%) -1.7%

Ref: 369 (36.9%) New

Lab: 172 (17.2%) -35.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who simultaneously vacated her post as Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner (see above).  This ward was a straight head-to-head last time between Labour and the Conservatives.  Reform had won all three of the previous council by-elections held in Breckland, but their Turkish candidate could not persuade enough voters in this semi-rural ward to swing it for her party.  She did however enjoy a huge swing from Labour that dumped the incumbent party in last place and delivered a Conservatives gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Ramsey & Bury, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 506 (29.7%) -17.3%

Ind: 417 (24.5%) New

Con: 412 (24.2%) -5.2%

LDm: 126 (7.4%) +0.6%

Grn: 123 (7.2%) +1.2%

Lab: 118 (6.9%) -4.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform gained this seat from the Conservatives in last year's local elections, but the winner recently stood down, citing 'personal circumstances'.  Last year's defeated Conservative sought to get her former seat back at this by-election, but slipped to third place.  She was narrowly beaten by an independent, who took a significant swing from Reform.  Labour finished third here last year, but collect the wooden spoon this time around.  No Burnham bounce here!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Kidlington West, Cherwell District Council

LDm: 1,028 (58.8%) +13.7%

Ref: 331 (18.9%) -4.3%

Con: 232 (13.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 158 (9.0%) -5.4%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem incumbent, who gained this seat from the Conservatives in 2021.  She resigned for 'personal reasons', primarily to spend more time with her family.  The Lib Dems were very keen to hold here, as their coalition majority hung by a thread.  They did so with ease, garnering three times as many votes as second placed Reform, while their coalition partners the Greens picked up the wooden spoon.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Old Catton, Norfolk County Council

Con: 973 (34.6%) +8.5%

Grn: 921 (32.7%) +14.0%

Ref: 561 (19.9%) -10.1%

Lab: 147 (5.2%) -10.6%

LDm: 100 (3.6%) -5.6%

Res: 98 (3.5%) New

Loon: 13 (0.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent less than four weeks after he was elected in May, citing 'poor health'.  Did he not expect to win?  A very poor show that left his colleague with what turned out to be an insurmountable task of holding the seat.  The former Conservative councillor selected by Reform was heavily defeated by her old party, while the Greens pushed her into third.  This was the first ever local election fought in the name of Restore Britain, but it was disastrous.  Their candidate pulled out shortly after the nomination papers were handed in, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.  It's not going well is it, Rupert?

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Grn: 664 (41.2%) +3.4%

Ref: 479 (29.7%) +2.9%

Lab: 213 (13.2%) +3.7%

Con: 208 (12.9%) -3.2%

LDm: 37 (2.3%) New

YrP: 11 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

As often tends to be the case with the Banana Republic of Peterborough, this by-election was mired in controversy before a single vote had been cast.  Triggered by the resignation of a young native lady who was elected as a Labour councillor in the 2024 elections, she quit the party a year later after accusing her comrades of 'sustained bullying and marginalisation'.  Why was she targeted?  She simply called for CCTV to be installed in the city's taxis.  This led to her facing accusations of 'racism' from Muslim comrades, who also tarred her family with the same brush.  In resigning her seat recently, she accused the council of 'systemic cover-ups', which Labour's Muslim council leader denied.  As Peterborough wards go, this one is not overtly Muslim, but it did opt for the Greens in May.  An independent candidate who stood here in that election dropped out, while there was a rare outing for the Fruit and Nutters.  The Corbyn shitshow finished last with just 11 votes, while the party that stole their far left thunder roared into the lead and garnered more than three times the number of votes received by Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Wellington, Rushmoor Borough Council

Lab: 408 (42.1%) +9.2%

Con: 199 (20.5%) -3.0%

Ref: 196 (20.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 118 (12.2%) New

LDm: 49 (5.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The retirement of the Labour incumbent triggered this contest.  He had served as a Rushmoor councillor on and off since 1976 and his successor scored an impressive hold for a party that is not used to expanding their vote share and moving further ahead of their rivals.  An independent candidate who stood here in May did not stand this time.  This area was historically a Conservative stronghold, but this all changed in 2024 when Labour took control of the council and won the local Aldershot Westminster constituency for the first time in history.  Labour lost outright control of the council following several defections last year, but they remain the largest party and run it as a minority administration.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Himley & Swindon, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 298 (43.2%) -21.0%

Ref: 187 (27.1%) New

Ind: 129 (18.7%) New

Lab: 28 (4.1%) New

Grn: 22 (3.2%) New

Ind: 16 (2.3%) -12.0%

LDm: 10 (1.4%) -20.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 82-year-old Tory incumbent, who had been council leader as recently as 2024.  He was re-elected to this ward in 2023, having bested the only two other candidates - a Lib Dem and an independent.  It was a much more crowded ballot paper this time and the votes were dispersed very thinly in this sparsely populated ward on the edge of the Black Country.  The Conservatives managed to hold off Reform by more than 100 votes.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Manor, Stafford Borough Council

Lab: 481 (36.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 414 (31.2%) New

Con: 237 (17.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 197 (14.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

As with the previous seat, this was triggered by the death of the 82-year-old incumbent.  The longstanding councillor had been re-elected most recently in 2023, when she topped the poll with both ward seats up for grabs.  She and her Labour colleague easily saw off the Conservatives, while a solitary Green candidate collected the wooden spoon.  The Greens finished last again this time, while there was a significant swing from both Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Richey has extended his lead further, with Karl suffering another poor performance.  Karl has now dropped below the 50 per cent accuracy rate and at best can only close the gap next week as there are only five by-elections.

IT'S FOR THE BEST

The England football team's World Cup exit will have been painful for many, but perhaps none more so than our outgoing Prime Minister.  Starmer was banking on a tournament victory, so much so that he had already planned out his movements across a tight window that would allow him to fly into the States to attend the final, before flying straight back to the UK in order to leave office on Monday.  An England victory in the final would have allowed him to go out on a positive note - by declaring a bank holiday in celebration and, of course, trumpeting the team's diversity.  Number Ten had been festooned in the Cross of St George ahead of the semi-final.

Starmer was joined in his opportunistic enthusiasm for the England team by his good friend Sadiq Khan.  Khan posted multiple messages of support across his social media accounts ahead of Wednesday's game and, like Starmer, wore an England shirt for recent high profile events.  However, this passion was not derived from any sense of patriotic instinct.  These are Labour politicians remember - in normal circumstances they despise the sight of the Cross of St George and displays of national pride repulses them.

The establishment's desire for an England victory was all about multi-culturalism, mass immigration and furthering the Great Replacement.  The England World Cup squad was crammed with black and mixed race players, as were many Western European teams at this tournament.  The sight of so many non-white faces in teams like England, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands showed the entire world that the demographic replacement of Europeans is no conspiracy theory.  And the establishment that has long sought to destroy our continent, its history, culture and people would have celebrated an England victory as a triumph for 'diversity'.

No person symbolises the 'Diversity Is Strength' mantra more than Khan, so it was no great surprise to see him embracing the team.  But diversity is not a strength, it is suicide.  Khan, Starmer and co would have declared it the most diverse England World Cup squad in history, but that simply translates as the most non-white England World Cup squad in history.  They would have weaponised the team's success against English people - and by that we mean English people, not people of African or mixed descent - furthering the immigration cause, hastening the demise of the native peoples of these islands and having us celebrate the fact.

Kebede is the general secretary of the National Education Union and a former partner of ex-Labour MP Laura Pidcock.  Unfortunately, for him, his multi-racial England team came unstuck against one of the least diverse teams in the tournament.  The overwhelming majority of the Argentine players are of European descent - including talisman Lionel Messi, who is of Italian and Spanish descent.

And let's not forget that the only major football tournament that England has ever won was achieved without a single black player.  That record still stands 60 years on, sorry Khan, Kebede and co!

TOON TUESDAY #111

Barring a miracle, Andy Burnham will be PM a week today, so no prizes for guessing what dominates this week's cartoons (again).  Somewhat disgracefully, not one mainstream cartoonist sought to address the assassination of Ann Widdecombe.

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Matt Pritchett for The Sunday Telegraph

Stanley McMurtry for The Mail on Sunday

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Pete Songi on X

Peter Brookes for The Times

Morten Morland for The Sunday Times

MEME MONDAY #91

Another week of poor distribution, we can only hope it is because everyone is outdoors enjoying this lovely weather!

Mon 6 Jul - 35 shares

Wed 8 Jul - 60 shares

Thu 9 Jul - 25 shares

Fri 10 Jul - 65 shares.  Starmer's legacy will be one of a tyrant who did incredible
harm to the proliferation of free speech in this nation, but we fear there is worse
to come if globalists continue to occupy 10 Downing Street

Sat 11 Jul - 97 shares

Sat 11 Jul - 35 shares

Sat 11 Jul - 92 shares.  The freak is reportedly now a member of Zack Polanski's
crazy gang.  No great surprise there.

Sat 11 Jul - 114 shares

Sun 12 Jul - 19 shares.  The media has gone to great lengths to report that both
of the arrests in relation to Ann Widdecombe's murder were
'white British nationals'

Karl continued with his Diversity Is Strength theme in last week's Facebook Stories, with a new Burnham design likely to be debuted next week.

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