COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 27.08.26

Five council by-elections took place on Thursday, with two defences each for Labour and Reform, plus one Tory defence.  The latter went to the Greens, who scored a rare gain on the back of a split in the right-wing vote.  This seat was otherwise another impressive new entry for Reform who surged into second place and missed out on victory by only 34 votes.

In the other four contests it was swings and roundabouts for Reform and Labour.  For the second week in a row they gained seats from each other, including a stunning gain for Labour in St Helens.  Labour also technically gained ground as Reform took another seat from them in Sheffield.  Reform had won one of the other council seats in this ward emphatically in May, but their lead over Labour was cut from over a thousand votes to less than 300.  Labour held a seat in London on the back of the declining Green vote, while Reform held relatively easily in Newcastle.

A much better performance overall for Labour this week, with vote share up in three out of five seats.  The Burnham bounce may not be huge, but it is allowing Labour to compete with Reform in a way they could not under the Starmer millstone.  As things stand we are heading for a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party.

Guston, Kingsdown & St Margaret's-at-Cliffe, Dover District Council

Grn: 767 (28.8%) +2.7%

Ref: 733 (27.5%) New

Con: 456 (17.1%) -16.0%

Lab: 389 (14.6%) -9.2%

Res: 284 (10.7%) New

Ind: 35 (1.3%) New

Grn GAIN from Con

Triggered by the retirement of the Tory incumbent.  The Conservatives won both seats here in the 2023 election, but lost control of the council for the first time since 2007.  Labour took a very slender majority, which was lost within two years following various resignations and defections.  The slip into no overall control was caused by the defection of a Labour councillor to none other than the Conservatives.  Labour continue to run the council as a minority administration, despite now having less council seats than the aforementioned Tories.  There were plenty of changes to the ballot paper going into Thursday's contest, with no Lib Dem or Heritage Party candidates this time, but three new entries.  The appearance of Reform and Restore Britain looked set to damage the defending Tories and that proved to be the case, with the Greens taking full advantage of the split vote.  It can be argued that Reform's narrow defeat - by just 34 votes - is the first real damage that Rupert Lowe's party has inflicted on his old party.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn, Newcastle City Council

Ref: 901 (39.0%) -4.8%

LDm: 670 (29.0%) +24.3%

Lab: 534 (23.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 103 (4.5%) -9.2%

Con: 101 (4.4%) -4.4%

Ref HOLD

Another week, another short-lived Reform councillor.  The incumbent resigned two months after being elected on May 7, citing 'an abrupt change in her health, personal and work commitments'.  That's quite a lot to change simultaneously.  She had won the third seat here in May as Reform took all three of the ward's council seats following boundary changes.  The ward in its previous format historically returned Labour councillors and the party was looking to regain one of those seats on Thursday.  As it turned out, Labour slumped further behind as the Lib Dems surged past them into second place.  A relatively easy hold for Reform.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Southey, Sheffield City Council

Ref: 1,133 (50.6%) +0.6%

Lab: 836 (37.3%) +12.8%

Grn: 146 (6.5%) -6.4%

Con: 69 (3.1%) -1.7%

LDm: 56 (2.5%) -2.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since April of this year.  It is not clear why he left the Labour party, but he chose to stand down from the council altogether as a consequence of 'personal and family commitments'.  Labour numbers on Sheffield City Council have been in gradual decline since 2012, when they held 60 seats.  This dropped to 25 in May, while in the same period the Green party has gone from two seats to 20.  These two competing left-wing outfits are currently administering Sheffield as a coalition authority.  The incumbent in this ward won easily in 2024, finishing over a thousand votes ahead of the second placed Green.  Things changed dramatically here in May, when it was Reform who surged over a thousand votes in front of Labour.  It wasn't quite as dramatic a victory on Thursday, with Reform's lead cut to just under 300.  There was no independent or Trade Unionist candidate this time, who between them picked up almost 140 votes in May.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Billinge & Seneley Green, St Helens Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,158 (41.4%) +18.8%

Ref: 892 (31.9%) -2.6%

Ind: 496 (17.7%) -1.5%

Grn: 106 (3.8%) -9.2%

Con: 94 (3.0%) -4.5%

Ind: 60 (2.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Ref

Another departing Reform councillor triggered this by-election after just two months in office.  She cited 'personal reasons' for ending her short stint.  Her party demolished Labour in St Helens on May 7, ending 16 years of outright Labour control and leaving them with just two seats.  This was Reform's second by-election defence since that day, having successfully defended the Haydock ward in June.  It wasn't to be this time as Labour surged in front for an impressive gain.  Reform's candidate had come under fire for 'Islamophobic' and 'anti-vax' social media posts, but it is not clear if this had a major bearing on the result.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Trinity, Wandsworth London Borough Council

Lab: 1,558 (47.5%) +8.8%

Con: 1,431 (43.6%) +9.0%

Grn: 168 (5.1%) -10.8%

LDm: 75 (2.3%) -3.0%

Ref: 51 (1.6%) -2.6%

Lab HOLD

The resignation of the incumbent triggered this vacancy.  She had been Labour's deputy group leader on the council, but there were conflicting reasons why she stood down.  She claimed to have taken a 'politically restricted' job that would automatically require her to relinquish her council role, while almost simultaneously declaring that it was her pregnancy and family commitments that drove her decision.  Either way, we have an intriguing contest between the red and blue half of the Uniparty.  Up until this year, Wandsworth Council was controlled outright by either red or blue.  On May 7, the council slipped into no overall control for the very first time, with the Conservatives taking over from Labour as a minority administration.  The fairly even split of the council was reflected in this ward, which in May divided its two seats between Labour and the Tories.  Once again, it was a closely fought battle between Uniparty candidates, with Labour emerging victorious.  Labour appeared to benefit from a significant swing from the Greens.  There was no independent or Trade Unionist candidate this time, but they only garnered a handful of votes in May.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Mixed results for our team this week, but it was Karl who came out on top.  He cuts Richey's lead down to six.

JESS THE RAPE DEFLECTOR

In January 2016, Jess Phillips belittled the wave of sexual assaults that swept German cities on New Year's Eve just a few weeks earlier.  She likened the horrific event to just 'something that could be described on Broad Street in Birmingham every week'.  Of course, if the sex crimes had been carried out by German men on Arab women, her response would have been very different.  As always, the left apply different standards to 'minority communities'.

It should come as no great surprise to see that Jess has come out once again to belittle and deflect attention away from foreign rapists.  In an interview with Times Radio, she went to extraordinary lengths to divert attention away from the now infamous Home Office pamphlet that is being handed out to boat colonists.  She even threw Polish people under the bus, because they are only white Europeans after all!

Watch below, with Richey's analysis (eight minute watch)

This was Karl's first major edit since major surgery in July.  You can show your appreciation here.

MEME MONDAY #97

OK, so it's now Tuesday and we are a day later than usual on account of time constraints and Karl's surgery.  He is on his feet again and has even had all his staples removed, but he is still a considerable way off a return to full health.  He is producing more, including a new video we'll publish here later.  Last week's meme output was severely limited compared to previous weeks, because Richey did not do as much to top up Karl's output on account of a busy work schedule.

Wed 19 Aug - 1,398 shares

Wed 19 Aug - 104 shares

Wed 19 Aug - 150 shares

Thu 20 Aug - 54 shares

Fri 21 Aug - 24 shares.  Richey's sole effort last week

Sun 23 Aug - 290 shares

Two Facebook Stories were published last week.  R.I.P. Professor Arday - who should not have died - but who should not have lied, either.

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BOATWATCH #73

The ebb and flow of this summer's arrivals has continued with another relatively quiet week.  Three boats were picked up on Monday and nothing since.  Compared to the high volume set by previous years, 2026 looks set to be a significantly quieter year all round, giving Andy Burnham and his wretched party something to crow about.  However, we must not forget that immigration is cumulative and it is not just restricted to the more than 200,000 colonists who have sailed into our waters since 2018.  Thousands of young male colonists are roaming our streets and their numbers are being bolstered weekly.

"Like the Roman..."

Total = 250 (down 578 from previous week)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.08.26

Four council seats were contested on Thursday, with two defences apiece for Reform and Labour.  It's more or less a dead heat between these two parties in the national polls and results were certainly mixed for both parties.  Reform suffered a net loss of one, while Labour flatlined with a loss, a gain and a hold.  Labour scored a 30.1 per cent average across the four wards, narrowly beating Reform's average of 29.6 per cent.  It is clear from this week's small sample size of results that Labour under Burnham are outperforming Starmer's regime, but they are far from indicative of a party that is set to win a general election outright.  Labour clung onto a seat in Nottingham with a dip in vote share of 33.8 per cent, which was largely down to voters switching to new options on the ballot paper like Reform and the Greens.  Labour also avoided a wooden spoon finish in Cambridgeshire by just two votes.

Penistone East, Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,728 (51.6%) +14.4%

Ref: 795 (23.8%) -6.7%

Con: 387 (11.6%) -7.6%

Res: 218 (6.5%) New

Ind: 87 (2.6%) New

LDm: 70 (2.1%) -3.6%

Grn: 59 (1.7%) -5.6%

Ind: 2 (0.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent after just eight weeks in the role.  She had been elected on May 7, but stood down due to unspecified 'personal reasons'.  Reform swept Labour aside in Barnsley that day, no mean feat considering the local authority had been in Labour hands for the entirety of its 52 year history.  Labour had maintained control in the 2024 elections with 48 seats, but were reduced to just 11 as the red wall town turned turqoise.  Penistone East resisted the Reform surge to a degree, with two of its three seats going to Labour (first and third).  With an impressive result on Thursday, all three of those seats are now red and the ward has lost its only Reform councillor.  Perhaps this is no great surprise given the circumstances of a resignation that cost local taxpayers a reported £35,000 to organise a by-election to replace her.  These rapid departures could get much worse for Reform after next May's elections, as most of their best people are now already councillors and at some point the barrel is going to be scraped.  Shout out to Restore Britain, who scored an impressive result here in a very rare local election outing, albeit once again failing to dent Reform's supremacy.  And spare a thought for that lowly independent candidate - just two votes!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Harraby South, Cumberland Council

Ref: 560 (46.2%) New

Lab: 469 (33.3%) -7.6%

Con: 236 (16.8%) -18.5%

Grn: 29 (2.1%) New

LDm: 23 (1.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Another by-election triggered by a resignation for unspecified 'personal reasons'.  The Labour incumbent won this seat in the inaugural Cumberland Council election of 2022.  This curiously named authority lends its name to an ancient county that ceased to exist in 1974 when it was replaced by the new entity of Cumbria.  While Cumbria still exists as the official county name, its county council was abolished and divided into two administrations for the 2022 election, one of which was Cumberland.  Labour won control of Cumberland with relative ease and were by far the largest party with 30 seats to the Conservatives' seven.  Labour have since lost five of those seats - through resignations and defections - and have now lost a sixth to Reform, who on Thursday surged into first place from scratch.  Interesting to note that Reform were not the only newcomers, but the Greens and Lib Dems could muster only 52 votes between them.  There was no independent candidate this time, having finished last in 2022 with 369 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Leen Valley, Nottingham City Council

Lab: 689 (30.5%) -33.8%

Ind: 523 (23.2%) New

Ref: 410 (18.2%) New

Grn: 378 (16.7%) New

Con: 189 (8.4%) -13.3%

LDm: 68 (3.0%) -11.0%

Lab HOLD

We're used to seeing Reform and Green novices disregard their duties, but this by-election was triggered by a lousy Labour councillor who failed to attend a single council meeting for more than six months.  Despite being warned in writing, the councillor did not respond and was automatically disqualified from office.  The hijab-wearing individual was elected in the 2023 election, but quit Labour six months later on account of Keir Starmer's position on Gaza.  She went on to serve for two and a half years as an independent.  Nottingham is about as red as it gets and we're not talking about the football team.  Labour have been in control here since 1991, and a split in their ranks last year did not seriously impact their majority.  Six councillors left to form the 'Nottingham People's Alliance' and they made Leen Valley their debut election.  It's fair to say they pushed Labour hard for victory, with Labour's majority crashing from almost a thousand votes to less than 200.  It was also an impressive new entry for Reform in a ward that has a huge Muslim population and a white minority of 42 per cent.  Despite these demographics, only Labour and the Nottingham People's Alliance fielded Muslim candidates.  It was therefore no great surprise to see these were the top two candidates as our country develops into an increasingly sectarian political landscape.  For the sake of consistency, the Nottingham People's Alliance are referred to in brackets as 'Independents', as per all localised groups.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

St Neots Eynesbury, Huntingdonshire District Council

LDm: 1,024 (47.9%) +29.8%

Ref: 647 (30.3%) +3.1%

Con: 143 (6.7%) -3.8%

Grn: 118 (5.5%) -12.5%

Lab: 104 (4.9%) New

Ind: 102 (4.8%) New

LDm GAIN from Ref

Another vacancy triggered by a departing Reform councillor, having only been elected seven weeks earlier.  In keeping with the secretive nature of this week's resignations, his decision was put down to those elusive 'personal reasons'.  There were three seats up for grabs here on May 7 and the incumbent topped the poll, with second place going to an independent and third place going to another Reform candidate.  Like Cumberland above, Huntingdonshire was an ancient English county that was also abolished in 1974.  It was incorporated into the county of Cambridgeshire and relegated to district status.  The Conservatives went on to control this new district between 1976 and 2022, when it fell into no overall control.  It is currently administered by a minority coalition of Lib Dems and independents.  The nature of the incumbents' rapid departure was always going to make this a tricky defence and so it proved to be, with Reform losing its second seat on the night.  The Lib Dems have a strong presence in these parts and it showed, with a huge surge.  Voters appear to be abandoning the Greens in ever greater numbers, but on this occasion they largely opted for the Lib Dems rather than reverting back to Labour.  The Labour candidate avoided a wooden spoon finish by the narrow margin of just two votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Richey led Karl by seven points going into week 12 and so it remains.  The pair had unusually diverged in their forecasts across the board, but merely cancelled each other out in a dead heat.

MEME MONDAY #96

We are once again operating a skeleton crew this week, with just a handful of memes produced and evenly split between Karl and Richey.  It is likely to be some weeks before output can return to anything like previous levels.

Mon 10 Aug - 230 shares.  Just to clarify that the leader of Cambridge City
Council - Cllr Katie Thornburrow - is the one on the right in this picture!

Wed 12 Aug - 559 shares

Fri 14 Aug - 80 shares

Sat 15 Aug - 2 shares

Sun 16 Aug - 320 shares

Sun 16 Aug - 61 shares

Sun 16 Aug - 4 shares.  Too soon?

Richey produced two Facebook Stories last week, one of which incorporated one of Karl's memes when the (Tory) government first introduced the 'emergency alert system'.  The red half of the Uniparty had no issues in adopting this Tory policy, because socialism is more naturally suited to invading the privacy of citizens and dictating to them in their own homes.  Opt out in your phone settings and tell the government to do one.

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BOATWATCH #72

Despite all of the rhetoric from Burnham and his party about boat crossings being down, records continue to be broken in 2026.  On Monday, the all time record number of migrants in a single boat was surpassed for the third time this year.  230 colonists were collected by a Border Farce vessel, many of whom were dangling one leg in the water as they entered British waters in a 49ft long inflatable.  This broke the previous all time record of 165, which was set on 23 July.  This in itself bested the 128  record number of colonists picked up a couple of weeks earlier on 12 July.

In a sign of how the French collaborate with the invasion - as opposed to honouring any of the multiple Anglo-French agreements and hundreds of millions sent their way by successive UK governments - a French Navy vessel failed to intercept the migrant boat on Monday.  In fact, the naval ship was in the process of escorting the boat into UK waters when two passengers called for their help.  The French Navy rescued the two migrants and returned them to Calais, but did nothing to prevent the remaining 230 passengers from continuing their journey into the hands of the UK Border Farce.

This all comes a couple of weeks after the Shadow Home Secretary filmed migrants boarding boats on a French beach, while police officers simply stood and watched.  Chris Philp expressed dismay at what he witnessed, despite having been a member of the government that let in the biggest wave of boat migrants this country has ever seen.  We see you, Mr Philp - just as we see you, Mr Jenrick.

Total = 828 (up 535 from previous week)

PETER LYNCH INQUEST SILENCE

The inquest into the death of Peter Lynch concluded on 5 August with a predictable silence from the legacy media.  Richey covered this in a video posted last week on Facebook, during which he explored the double standards of an establishment that is determined to erase the injustices meted out to the native peoples of these islands.  With the tragic death of the controversial ex-Cambridge professor Jason Arday currently dominating media headlines, this two tier reporting will once again be plain for all to see.

Professor Arday's cause of death has not been confirmed, but given the circumstances around his departure from Cambridge University, the general assumption is that he may have ended his own life.  Peter Lynch took his own life, too.  In time we shall see if Professor Arday's inquest is also roundly ignored by legacy media.  It is highly doubtful.

Richey discusses the Lynch inquest below, recorded prior to the death of Professor Arday (24 minute watch)

English lives matter, white lives matter, European lives matter, all lives matter.  That we have to say any of these things is incredulous, but the fact we are chastised for doing so and labelled 'racists' and 'bigots' is symptomatic of a creeping totalitarian and genocidal mindset that we must root out, expose and defeat.

BY-ELECTIONS 13.08.26

We had a Westminster by-election and two council seats up for grabs this week.  We begin with the Clacton clown show...

Clacton

Nigel Farage (Ref) 22,239 (63.3%) +17.1%

Count Binface (Ind) 9,455 (26.9%) New

John Stevens (Rejoin EU) 492 (1.4%) New

Tony Francis (Ind) 432 (1.2%) New

Pamela Walford (Ind) 371 1.1%) New

Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 347 (1.0%) New

William Clouston (SDP) 256 (0.7%) New

Nick Pelas (Ind) 202 (0.6%) New

James Ransley (Consensus) 192 (0.6%) New

Stephen Ingram (Ind) 159 (0.5%) New

Kai Stephens (British Democrat) 132 (0.4%) New

Attieh Fard (Ind) 126 (0.4%) New

Derrick Morris (Ind) 100 (0.3%) New

Michael O'Keeffe (Ind) 65 (0.2%) New

Martin Davies (Freedom Alliance) 60 (0.2%) New

Robin Green (Ind) 59 (0.2%) New

Rees Cowne (Ind) 50 (0.1%) New

Adham Alkhatip (Forward) 49 (0.1%) New

Amy Morris (Ind) 46 (0.1%) New

Andy Erlam (Ind) 44 (0.1%) New

Joseph 77 (Ind) 42 (0.1%) New

Nick the Incredible Flying Brick (Loon) 28 (0.1%) New

Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice) 21 (0.1%) New

Martyn O'Brien (Ind) 19 (0.1%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 18 (0.1%) New

Tony Cane (Ind) 17 (0.1%) New

Daniel Pocock (Ind) 16 (0.1%) New

Baron Von Thunderclap (Loon) 15 (0.04%) New

Abi Hookway (Ind) 14 (0.04%) New

Marc Wilkinson (Ind) 11 (0.03%) New

Marcus White (Everyone is God) 10 (0.03%) New

Gerry Smith (Ind) 9 (0.03%) New

Woke Trump Carrzee (Ind) 8 (0.02%) New

Glenn Cummings (Ind) 7 (0.02%) New

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of Nigel Farage, which could have been a career-ending calamity.  If he'd lost on Thursday to one of the many joke candidates, it would have been a difficult road back for the man whose party has led most of the polls since 2024.  Predictably, it was a routine hold and he received more votes than all the other 33 candidates combined.  However, his troubles are far from over in relation to the infamous £5million donation.  He can still be removed from office if he is found to be in breach of the MPs' code of conduct.  If he is suspended from the Commons for at least ten working days he will face automatically face a recall petition and if ten per cent of Clacton voters sign it there will be yet another by-election.  However, there are no rules that prevent Farage from standing again, even if he has been thrown out of office in this way.

Thursday's by-election was a record breaking contest for multiple reasons, most notably for the length of the ballot paper.  While all the main parties chose not to indulge Farage's ploy, 33 other candidates came forward - an all time record number.  All but one of them lost their £500 deposit and in doing so earned the treasury a grand total of £16,000.  The left-wing media and certain Labour donors had rallied around the character of 'Count Binface' in order to provide a potential upset, leading to a flurry of jokes and viral memes mocking the Reform leader.  Thanks to this publicity, Binface easily saved his deposit, but he did not come anywhere close to unseating Farage.

Other records set by this by-election summed up its farcical nature.  The Monster Raving Loony Party stood three candidates, which had never been done before, while its leader 'Howling Laud Hope' surpassed a record set by his predecessor - 'Screaming Lord Sutch' - for the most by-elections contested.  The three Loons amassed a paltry 61 votes between them, with Nick the Incredible Flying Brick coming out on top with 28 votes.  Third place went to the Remain outfit Rejoin EU, while Laurence Fox finished sixth and was the best placed of the remaining myriad of conservative and libertarian candidates.

Nigel Farage did not attend the count and made up some excuse about police advising him to keep away on the basis of a 'credible threat'.  Essex Police denied any such advice was given.  Farage clearly did not want to participate in the very bad optics of him standing alongside Loons and and loony bins.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

The following council vacancies were also decided on Thursday, incuding a tricky defence for Labour in which they slumped to fifth.  Once again, there was no sign of any electoral progress being made by Burnham and his party was propped up from finishing last in both seats by the presence of a couple of lowly independents.

Honiton St Michael's, East Devon District Council

LDm: 727 (45.5%) New

Ref: 401 (25.1%) New

Con: 321 (20.1%) -10.4%

Ind: 74 (4.6%) -16.0%

Lab: 55 (3.4%) -22.4%

Ind: 19 (1.2%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who had quit the Labour party last year and had been sitting as an independent.  He had been elected in 2023, becoming the council's first 'trans' member, masquerading as a woman called 'Violet'.  No reason was provided for his leaving the party or vacating his council seat, but his departure from Labour came a few weeks after the Supreme Court's ruling on the definition of what constitutes a woman.  With the party leadership having grudgingly accepted the ruling, it appears that 'Violet' spat his dummy out.  His exit from the council triggered a fascinating contest in a ward that was split three ways in 2023.  One of the Conservative candidates took first place, with Labour in second and the third seat going to a Liberal (not to be confused with the Lib Dems).  The Liberals did not stand this time and both of the newcomers surged past Labour and the Tories.  However, the Lib Dem's electioneering machine in the West Country proved too much for Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Almondbury, Kirklees Metropolitan Borough Council

LDm: 1,749 (43.9%) +14.5%

Ref: 1,078 (27.0%) -10.0%

Con: 528 (13.2%) +4.4%

Grn: 347 (8.7%) -8.0%

Lab: 181 (4.5%) -3.4%

Ind: 103 (2.6%) New

LDm GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, just 48 days after being elected on May 7.  Initially, no reason was given for his departure.  The local Labour party pointed to various politically incorrect social media posts, which eventually drew out a statement that the resignation was due to 'significant medical challenges'.  Clearly, this was yet another example of Reform's growth spurt outpacing its ability to procure quality candidates.  Reform emerged from the May elections as the largest party in Kirklees and they currently run the council as a minority administration, although they have already lost two seats, with a second councillor having gone independent.  Yorkshire and the north of England in general has never been fertile ground for the Lib Dems, but they sprung a surprise result on the outskirts of Huddersfield on Thursday.  It wasn't even close.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Richey led Karl by six points going into week 11 of their head-to-head.  Karl managed to claw a point back last week and that was the best he could hope for again this week.  As it turned out, that solitary differential went to Richey, who extends his lead to seven.

MEME MONDAY #95

Slim pickings again this week as Karl continues his recovery.  He did produce three original memes towards the end of the week, while the rest of the week was made up of Richey's combination of reworked memes and originals.

Mon 3 Aug - 39 shares. Richey took this old meme and simply changed
the text in the speech bubbles

Tue 4 Aug - 132 shares

Fri 7 Aug - 941 shares. Karl's second meme since leaving hospital was
also our most popular meme in some time

Sat 8 Aug - 189 shares

Sun 9 Aug - 176 shares.  Paid for by Cambridge taxpayers, some of
whom consistently support left-wing candidates like the Labour
council leader Katie Thornburrow (circled). The huge student
population in Cambridge who vote for Lab-Green clowns don't pay
council tax and don't care how other people's money is spent

Sun 9 Aug - 4 shares.  Another old meme that
Richey took and re-edited 

Sun 9 Aug - 29 shares

No Facebook Stories were published last week, but they will return soon.

BOATWATCH #71

Appearing a little later than usual, due to the fact Home Office staff appeared to be on holiday over the weekend and failed to update the figures.  As Burnham jetted off to an unspecified holiday destination, the numbers slumped in comparison to the previous week.  However, on Monday there has been an all time record broken for the third time this year - more on that next week.

Total = 293 (down 883 from previous week)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.08.26

This week we had three Conservative defences and one each for Plaid and Reform.  The head-to-head returned after a two week absence, with a 100 per cent accuracy rate for Karl.

It was an excellent polling day for Reform, who finished either top or second in all five wards.  This included two gains from the Conservatives in Norfolk and a hold on Tyneside.  It was not so great for Labour, whose best finish was a second place in that Tyneside contest.  Elsewhere, they collected no less than three wooden spoons and a double digit drop in vote share across four wards.  This was Labour's worst weekly performance since Starmer announced his resignation.

Hengoed, Caerphilly County Borough Council

Pld: 509 (49.9%) -4.9%

Ref: 371 (36.4%) New

Lab: 103 (10.1%) -35.1%

Con: 21 (2.1%) New

LDm: 16 (1.6%) New

Pld HOLD

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  All the other by-elections triggered in this way came and went weeks ago, which begs the question as to why it took Labour-run Caerphilly almost three months to hold the last remaining one.  The Hengoed ward is sandwiched between Plaid territory to the west and Labour territory to the east.  It was last contested in 2022, when it was a simple head-to-head between Plaid and Labour.  Reform's entrance in this by-election demolished the Labour vote, with a huge swing pushing Labour into third place.  However, it was not enough to dislodge Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Heacham, King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council

Ref: 289 (37.8%) New

LDm: 219 (28.7%) New

Con: 163 (21.3%) -3.8%

Lab: 93 (12.2%) -11.4%

Ref GAIN from Con

The first of two vacancies in neighbouring wards.  Both incumbents resigned their posts simultaneously, for similar reasons unrelated to party politics.  In Heacham, the incumbent had already relinquished his role as Norfolk county councillor in May and upon resigning his remaining council seat, stated he was pursuing 'a number of interesting opportunities'.  He had won the second available seat here in 2023, having finished a considerable way behind the first placed independent and only 31 votes ahead of the third placed Labour candidate.  There was no independent candidate this time, leaving Reform to sweep to victory as the Tories slumped to third.  The first of three wooden spoons for Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Snettisham, King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council

Ref: 229 (35.1%) New

LDm: 211 (32.3%) New

Con: 169 (25.9%) -25.8%

Lab: 44 (6.7%) -11.4%

Ref GAIN from Con

The incumbent here had been the leader of the council going into the 2023 election, at which the Conservatives lost overall control for the first time in 20 years.  He had his fingers in a few pies and resigned recently in order to pursue other professional and charitable work.  An independent candidate stood here in 2023 and finished second with 241 votes.  She was absent this time and, as with Heacham above, this appeared to benefit the two newcomers in what was an identical result in terms of party placings.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Hooley, Merstham & Netherne, Reigate & Banstead Borough Council

Grn: 934 (41.8%) +3.4%

Ref: 545 (24.8%) +14.0%

Con: 454 (20.4%) -3.7%

LDm: 166 (7.5%) +0.9%

Lab: 138 (6.2%) -14.0%

Grn GAIN from Con

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was only in his early 40s.  He had intended to stand down at next year's election anyway, having undergone three years of treatment for tongue cancer.  The Conservatives are the only party to have ever held outright control of Reigate and Banstead, but the council slipped into no overall control in 2024, with the Tories continuing to run it as a minority administration.  Dwindling Tory numbers over the years coincided with the steady rise of the Greens in this affluent borough.  Their success is very evident in this ward, which in 2022 had three Conservative councillors.  The Greens have won every election here since, wiping out all three of those Tory council seats.  They are now just one seat behind the Conservatives on the council, but unfortunately for the Greens, this authority is being abolished next year and merged into East Surrey Council.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Harton, South Tyneside Council

Ref: 628 (35.3%) -6.7%

Lab: 354 (19.9%) +5.1%

Grn: 312 (17.5%) -1.5%

Ind: 285 (16.0%) -8.2%

Ind: 119 (6.7%) New

Con: 57 (3.2%) New

LDm: 24 (1.3%) New

Ref HOLD

A case of poor candidate vetting by Reform was the trigger for this contest.  Reform obliterated Labour on South Tyneside in May, gaining 41 of the council's 54 seats.  Labour slumped from being the largest party on 28 seats to just one.  In the Harton ward of South Shields, Reform won all three seats and it was the second placed candidate that drew the attention of Hope Not Hate.  The so-called 'anti-fascist' organisation led by communist Nick Lowles, uncovered various politically incorrect online comments by the Reform councillor.  When he was approached by the local press, the new councillor said that he was under the impression he had resigned weeks earlier and complained that Reform had misled him about the amount of work involved in being a councillor.  Making certain his resignation, this could have been a tricky defence for Reform, but they managed to hold off Labour with relative ease.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Karl was lagging seven points behind Richey before his hospitalisation, but he has managed to claw one back on his return.  This was the team's best week yet, with just one incorrect forecast from a possible ten.  Karl is now back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark, but with only three by-elections next week, Richey's lead is safe for a wee while.

R.I.P ROD LIDDLE

Last weekend Britain lost one of the great journalists and commentators of our time.  It was with great shock and sadness that news broke on Monday of Rod Liddle's death at the relatively premature age of 66, following an unspecified short illness.

Liddle was often tarred with various names, usually ending in 'ist' or 'phobe', and proudly lived up to the label of the 'most offensive columnist of his generation'.  However, he was not always a provocative voice on the right - in fact quite the opposite.

Roderick Edwin Liddle was born in the Kent town of Sidcup on 1 April, 1960, with April Fools' Day becoming an apt date for such a witty man.  Aged just eight, his family relocated hundreds of miles to the north and settled in Middlesbrough, where Liddle would attend a local comprehensive.  He progressed into further education and soon became embroiled in hard left politics, exacerbated by his attendance of the London School of Economics, where he ironically studied one of the 'useless fucking degrees' he would later go on to rail against - social psychology.

He was a self-professed Trotskyite in his teenage years, having joined the Socialist Workers' Party.  He later joined the Labour party and was on the payroll in the mid 1980s, primarily as a speechwriter.  As his career in journalism took off, he took a backseat from party politics, but remained a Labour member until his suspension in 2016.  He was suspended and later expelled after he used his Spectator column to attack what he perceived as a prevalence of anti-Semitism in some elements of the Labour party.  Because he had singled out Muslim activists in the article, he found himself outrageously accused of 'racism'.

The EU referendum of the same year further alienated him from the left and he went on to passionately campaign for the Leave mandate to be enacted.  He joined the Social Democratic Party in 2019 and stood for them in the 2024 general election.  He found the SDP's left-oriented economics, combined with socially conservative values, the perfect fit.  He finished fourth in his local constituency of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, 0.2 per cent shy of saving the party's deposit.

An uncompromising and witty journalist who was not afraid to tackle sensitive subjects, he was a strong critic of the establishment and a staunch defender of the Leave mandate.  A teenage socialist who developed into a complex political animal with a libertarian streak and conservative values, dismayed by Labour's abandonment of the working classes.  He never forgot his roots and passed away in a Middlesbrough hospital on Sunday.

Karl has lovingly compiled a video compilation of some of Rod's media appearances and comedy skits.  Watch below or on YouTube (32 minute watch)

Rod Liddle will be fondly remembered and sorely missed.

STATUS UPDATE

As regular readers will know, we are currently depleted due to a serious illness.  Although Karl was discharged from hospital last week, he is largely bed bound at home and under strict instructions to rest.  He has a 10 inch incision from his abdomen to his chest, held together by metal staples, with further complications that are too unpleasant to list here.  His partner is adamant that he take a complete break from BTLP, but Karl being Karl, he has already completed some work this week.

He has spent much of his waking hours trawling through footage of the late Rod Liddle over the course of the last few days.  Compiled into a half hour video compilation, we will post it to the site this afternoon, alongside a short obituary penned by myself.

Karl will also be participating in this week's by-election preview, which will appear later.

However, in order to placate doctors and concerned relatives, we will be continuing to scale back in some areas.  Toon Tuesday did not land this week and will be put on hold until further notice.  The return of Woke Wednesdays will also be pushed back.  I will try and keep some memes ticking over on Facebook, but late summer and early autumn are typically busy periods for me at work, so there will continue to be gaps in between.  I did film a video monologue last weekend on the Covid scamdemic, but there was a section in the middle that was not factually correct.  Without Karl to edit that section out, I did not post it.  I have sent him the video, but he is under no obligation to do anything at all right now.  I will continue to film bits and pieces as and when I get the time.

It's a long road back to recovery and we both thank you for your support and understanding in the mean time.

Richey

MEME MONDAY #94

It was another difficult week as a one man band, but Richey did his best in between jobs.  He managed to film a short video midweek, but the memes were on short supply during that period.  Hoping for more content this week, fingers crossed.

Mon 27 Jul - 65 shares

Mon 27 Jul - 35 shares

Fri 31 Jul - 7 shares.  14 hours it took!

Sat 1 Aug - 27 shares

Sun 2 Aug - 6 shares

Sun 2 Aug - 2 shares.  Richey uncovered this old meme and updated it

Sun 2 Aug - 100 shares.  Karl reworked this from his Starmer version and it marks
his first work since leaving hospital last week

Richey managed two Facebook Stories last week, both of which drew pushback.  Firstly, people complained that the poll was 'fake news' (it wasn't) and secondly, the migration lobby took issue with the Ceuta post - declaring that a) most of the migrants had been returned and b) Ceuta is not in Europe.  The first part is true, in that most of the invaders were returned, but not all of them.  Unaccompanied minors who claim asylum cannot legally be removed, many of whom from previous stormings of Ceuta have been transferred to the Spanish mainland and granted asylum.  Secondly, while the territory of Ceuta is located in north Africa, it is part of the European Union and the intention of the invaders is to use the Spanish territory as a stepping stone to the Spanish mainland, from where they can disperse across Europe.

It is a fucking invasion, numpties.

It's not been easy the last two weeks, but you can show your appreciation for Richey's efforts by buying him and the bed laden one a very reasonably priced pint each here.  The irony is that Karl won't be drinking alcohol of any descripion any time soon!

BOATWATCH #70

One of Burnham's first embarrassing gaffes occurred last week - first, if we exclude every single one of his excruciatingly cheesy social media video clips.  On Tuesday he declared that Shabana Mahmood's 'very rigorous plan' to bring down Channel crossings 'is working'.  The very next day a whopping 752 colonists arrived on nine boats - a record daily figure for 2026.  Impeccable timing one might say.

The numbers may be down in comparison to 2024 and 2025, but we are still heading for around 30,000 arrivals this year if the current trajectory is maintained.  This would surpass the Boris and Rishi waves of 2021 and 2023.  Burnham and his MPs can keep trotting out the line that crossings are 'down', but the British people want the boats stopped altogether.  30,000 people would eclipse the entire population of British towns like Bathgate, Great Yarmouth and Melton Mowbray.  And let's not forget that immigration is cumulative, meaning that every year tens of thousands are added to those that are already here.

For eight years our leaders have allowed this to happen unabated, acts of treachery there for all to see.  Last week four colonists drowned trying to cross the Channel and the government released the following familiar statement: "Every death in the Channel is a tragedy and a stark reminder of the dangers posed by criminal gangs exploiting vulnerable people for profit."

The same government says nothing when our own people are raped and murdered by colonists.

Total = 1,176 (an increase of 295 from the previous week)

BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted since he was crowned PM.  Labour saw their majority more than halved in Greater Manchester, while simultaneously losing a council seat on that patch to a Muslim independent.  They were overtaken by Reform in an Essex council seat (unable to replicate the two gains they made in that county last week) and they entered a Hampshire contest only to finish last with 41 votes.

The Burnham bounce seen in recent polls is clearly not being reflected in actual elections.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

First preferences

Bev Craig (Lab): 251,449 (47.2%) -16.2%

Sian Astley (Ref): 111,928 (21.0%) +13.5%

Geraldine Coggins (Grn): 64,968 (12.2%) +5.3%

Marlon West (Res): 46,289 (8.7%) New

Phil Eckersley (Con): 41,021 (7.7%) -2.7%

Richard Kilpatrick (LDm): 14,702 (2.2%) -2.0%

Marcus Farmer (Ind): 2,969 (0.6%) New

Second round

Bev Craig (Lab): 309,525 (66.3%) 

Sian Astley (Ref): 157,178 (33.7%) 

Lab HOLD

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power cost taxpayers around £4.7million to stage this by-election, in which only one in four voters bothered to show up.  Burnham wants people to embrace devolution, but judging by this turnout, he's got a lot of work to do to.

This election deployed the supplementary vote system, in which voters record their first and second preferences.  If no candidate surpasses a 50 per cent vote share on first preferences, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes are then added to their existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.  Burnham never needed a run-off, as he received first preference votes of 63 per cent in 2017 and 2024, and 67 per cent in 2021.  Step forward to 2026 and things did not look as rosy for his successor.

The second placed Conservative was more than 350,000 votes behind Burnham in 2024, with Reform lagging further behind in fourth place.  This time around, the Tories slumped to fifth place as Reform surged into second and more than halved Labour's majority.  Even Restore Britain beat Kemi Badenoch's candidate, although both parties rescued their £5,000 deposit.  There was disappointment for the Greens, who finished a considerable way behind Reform in third place.

The count was somewhat controversial, in that it took the entirety of Friday to complete and first preference totals were not confirmed until after 19:00.  An initial declaration was expected by mid-afternoon and officials gave no explanation as to the delay.  A final declaration took a further four hours to arrive, with the Labour candidate beating Reform comfortably in the run-off.  Labour topped the poll in all ten of Greater Manchester's local authorities, with Reform second in all but two - Manchester itself, where the Greens finished with more than twice the Reform vote, and Trafford, where the Conservatives were runners-up.  Reform's best vote share was 30.2 per cent in Wigan, but the closest they came to Labour was in Oldham, where the gap between the two parties was 12.2 per cent.

The winning candidate was Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is a member of the Fabian Society and an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

Andy Burnham will be privately concerned about Labour's performance here.  The by-election was partially an indictment of his own mayoralty and partially an indictment on his new government.  Labour's majority crashed from 351,803 to 152,347.  The atrocious turnout meant that the cost of the election was almost £9 for every vote cast, suggesting widespread apathy with the kind of devolution that Burnham is currently pushing.

There was not even a Burnham bounce in the place where he was coined 'King in the North'.

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.