It was two Tory defences and one each for Labour and the Lib Dems in Thursday's four contests. We predicted a trio of gains for Reform, but in actual fact it was the Conservatives who emerged with three seats. However, on closer inspection the results were not exactly inspiring for Kemi Badenoch. Her party's share of the vote plummeted by around 20 percentage points in all but one of the four seats, mustering a meagre 2.5 per cent increase to take a Lib Dem seat in Oxfordshire.
That seat in the Vale of White Horse was a hard one to call, but we predicted that Reform's presence would eat into the Tory vote enough to hand them a sensational gain in an overwhelmingly middle class battleground. In fact, what happened was Reform took a significant swing from the Lib Dems and helped deliver the seat to the Conservatives. This marked a return for the Tories to a council that has been dominated by Lib Dems and Greens in recent years. Perhaps we should now keep an eye out for the Vale of White Horse's solitary Tory councillor, judging by Lee Evans' sinister number of votes!
In Sevenoaks, Kent, we thought Reform would decide that seat as well - potentially gifting it to the Lib Dems, but more likely winning it outright. Instead, the Lib Dem vote went down and Reform took second place as the Tories held on, despite dropping more than 20 percentage points.
Having wrongly predicted two Reform gains, we finally hit some form in the two Lincolnshire seats. The two vacancies had arisen through the deaths of long-standing Lab-Con incumbents. In Axholme Central ward, we correctly forecast a Conservative hold, while in Brumby we felt that Reform may have too much for Labour. Labour's vote there collapsed by more than 33 per cent, allowing Reform to storm ahead from scratch with more than half of the vote.
Labour's vote also collapsed in the other Lincolnshire seat, by more than 25 per cent, and they finished last in the Vale of White Horse with just 13 votes. The Greens didn't exactly set the results on fire, mustering a couple of third places and collecting the wooden spoon in Kent.
Brumby, North Lincolnshire Council
Ref: 769 (52.3%) New
Lab: 410 (27.9%) -33.6%
Grn: 133 (9.1%) +4.2%
Con: 110 (7.5%) -21.9%
LDm: 37 (3.2%) -1.1%
Ref GAIN from Lab
Axholme Central, North Lincolnshire Council
Con: 928 (49.2%) -19.6%
Ref: 668 (35.5%) New
Grn: 157 (8.3%) New
Lab: 103 (5.5%) -25.7%
LDm: 28 (1.5%) New
Con HOLD
Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount, Sevenoaks District Council
Con: 561 (44.2%) -20.7%
Ref: 378 (29.8%) New
LDm: 266 (20.9%) -14.2%
Grn: 58 (5.1%) New
Con HOLD
Stanford, Vale of White Horse District Council
Con: 666 (45.9%) +2.5%
LDm: 395 (27.2%) -17.0%
Ref: 261 (18.0%) New
Grn: 115 (7.9%) -4.5%
Lab: 13 (1.0%) New
Con GAIN from LDm






















































