While the media focus remains on Makerfield, two other MPs will be elected the same day. Two Westminster elections north of the border have been triggered by SNP incumbents having been elected to the Scottish Parliament. Another reason for the general lack of interest is that both seats are very much expected to return more of the same.
The SNP does not have particularly large majorities in either seat, but with toxic Labour in second place last time around it is highly unlikely voters will swap one left-wing party for one that is currently tanking. Aberdeen South is marginally more interesting, with the seat having historically switched between Labour and Conservative up until the SNP surge of 2015. The Tories regained the seat briefly at the 2017 general election, but it returned to the SNP two years later and remained that way in 2024.
The Greens could squeeze Labour here, but then Reform will squeeze the Tories (and Labour). With all that happening it's difficult to see anything other than an SNP hold. The Alliance for Democracy and Freedom is a Unionist libertarian Christian party.
Aberdeen South by-election candidates
Nurul Hoque Ali (Labour)
David Ballantine (Alliance for Democracy and Freedom)
Jo Hart (Reform UK)
Douglas Lumsden (Conservative)
Jorg Shelton Eckstein (Green)
Mel Sullivan (Liberal Democrats)
Richard Thomson (Scottish National Party)
Aberdeen South 2024 general election result
Stephen Flynn (SNP) 15,213 (32.8%) -12.5%
M. Tauqeer Malik (Lab) 11,455 (24.7%) +15.9%
John Wheeler (Con) 11,300 (24.4%) -10.0%
Michael Pearce (Ref) 3,199 (6.9%) +6.5%
Jeff Goodhall (LDm) 2,921 (6.3%) -4.4%
Guy Ingerson (Grn) 1,609 (3.5%) +3.0%
Graeme Craib (SFP) 423 (0.9%) New
Sophie Molly (Ind) 225 (0.5%) New
SNP HOLD
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is a relatively new seat born from boundary changes set in 2023 and debuting a year later in the general election. Most of the new seat comes from the now defunct Dundee East, which historically swayed between Labour and the SNP. With a small majority of 859, this by-election presents a better chance for Labour usurping the SNP, aided further by the absence of a Green candidate splitting the left-wing vote three ways.
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry candidates
Tanvir Ahmad (Liberal Democrats)
Lara Bird (Scottish National Party)
Jack Cruickshanks (Conservative)
Heather Doran (Labour)
Bill Reid (Reform UK)
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry 2024 general election result
Stephen Gethins (SNP) 15,581 (35.3%) -15.6%
Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank (Lab) 14,722 (33.4%) +23.2%
Richard Brooks (Con) 6,841 (15.5%) -14.8%
Gwen Wood (Ref) 3,800 (8.6%) New
David Evans (LDm) 2,249 (5.1%) -2.9%
Ghazi Khan (Alb) 693 (1.6%) New
Moira Brown (Sov) 231 (0.5%) New
SNP HOLD


























































