COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.10.26

Six council seats were filled on Thursday, including a twin defence for the Tories and one each for Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform.  Nottinghamshire was a key battleground, with three seats available.

Labour stood in all five of the contests south of the border, with mixed results.  The Burnham bounce was evident in the Black Country and Cheshire, less so in Nottinghamshire.  They lost a seat to Reform, but gained one from the same party - albeit by the slender margin of two votes.  The downturn of the Greens continued, with the party collecting a wooden spoon in all four of the by-elections it fought.

There was much better news for Reform, who had been flagging of late with no wins or holds in six weeks going into this round.  There was bitter disappointment in Dudley, where they lost a seat by two votes, but they unexpectedly gained two seats elsewhere.

Mid Argyll, Argyll and Bute Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 820 (46.1%) +14.9%

LDm: 310 (17.4%) +14.1%

Con: 230 (12.9%) +1.3%

Ref: 151 (8.5%) New

Res: 124 (7.0%) New

ISP: 95 (5.3%) +2.9%

Ind: 50 (2.8%) New

SNP GAIN (elected at stage 5)

Triggered by the death of the 64-year-old incumbent, who passed away following a long cancer battle.  He topped the poll on first preferences the last time this colossal ward was contested, back in 2022.  Mid Argyll is by no means the largest council ward in Britain, but at 323 square miles it is 30 times larger than the average council ward and larger than many council authorities, such as Birmingham.  Don't be surprised if this is the last result out of the bag on Friday.  The ballot paper was a busy affair here in 2022, with nine candidates in total - four of which were independents.  This Thursday there are seven candidates and just the one independent.  Labour also dropped out this time, having finished fourth in 2022 with 157 votes.  The downturn in candidates, in particular the 2022 winner, meant that all the parties increased their vote shares on Thursday.  The SNP won the seat with more than twice the vote of the second placed Lib Dems.  The sixth-placed party (ISP) are the seldom heard of Independence for Scotland Party.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Worksop East, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 600 (45.9%) New

Lab: 485 (37.1%) -34.4%

Res: 91 (7.0%) New

Con: 89 (6.8%) -21.7%

Grn: 42 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who is also the Member of Parliament for Bassetlaw and a government minister.  Jo White stood down as a councillor last month, citing conflicts of interest between her council role and her role as a Home Office minister.  She was appointed a minister by Burnham in July, having been elected to Westminster in the 2024 general election.  Bassetlaw has been under Labour control since 2011, but there haven't been a round of elections here since 2023 when Labour won all three seats in this ward in a head-to-head against the Conservatives.  Reform had won the last four by-elections in Bassetlaw and sensationally made it five in a row on Thursday.  A shocking result for the Uniparty, more so considering that Restore Britain also entered the contest and it did not result in a Labour hold.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

St James's, Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 874 (38.0%) +16.2%

Ref: 872 (37.9%) -11.0%

Con: 317 (13.8%) -0.1%

Res: 159 (6.9%) New

Grn: 79 (3.4%) -7.2%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, after just four months in office.  He resigned due to a combination of 'personal and health-related' reasons, having easily unseated Labour in May with a majority of 903.  However, it was the Tories who suffered the most at the hands of Reform in Dudley, losing outright control of the council in that election.  They have continued in office as a minority administration.  The losing Labour candidate in this central ward managed to regain her seat on Thursday after a nail-biting recount and the wafer thin margin of just two votes.  Many will look to a swing from Reform to Restore as yet another example of a split vote on the right gifting victory to Labour.  Two parties did not stand on Thursday - the Lib Dems (fourth in May with 130 votes) and the Trade Unionist Socialist Coalition (last with 30 votes).

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Beechwood & Heath, Halton Borough Council

Ref: 750 (35.3%) -4.2%

LDm: 559 (26.3%) -18.3%

Lab: 535 (25.2%) New

Res: 134 (6.3%) New

Ind: 90 (4.2%) New

Con: 56 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in her late 70s.  She had served on the council continuously since 1997.  She had last been re-elected in 2024, when Labour were runners-up.  The most recent election here was back in May this year, when Labour did not stand and Reform surged into second spot behind her Lib Dem colleague.  This suburban Runcorn ward was one of the few seats that Reform did not win at that election.  They demolished Labour, but as only a third of seats were being filled, Labour maintained control of the council.  Despite dropping slightly, both in terms of votes and vote share, Reform overtook the Lib Dems to win the seat.  The absence of the Greens (third in May with 356 votes) and the Libertarian Party (last with 69 votes) did not help the Lib Dems.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Dover Beck, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Con: 409 (41.7%) -29.5%

Ref: 328 (33.5%) New

Lab: 148 (15.1%) -13.7%

LDm: 73 (7.4%) New

Grn: 22 (2.2%) New

Con HOLD

Thursday's second Notts contest was triggered by the death of the 70-year-old incumbent, following a lengthy cancer battle.  He had served on the council since 2003, also serving concurrently on Nottinghamshire County Council since 2013 (triggering a separate by-election, see below).  This rural ward was last contested in 2023, when the Tories emerged victorious in a head-to-head against Labour, receiving more than twice the Labour vote.  The Conservatives lost control of the council in 2023 to no overall control and it has been run since by a chaotic minority coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and independents.  There will be a full election here next May, despite plans to abolish the council in 2028 and absorb it into a new unitary authority for Nottinghamshire.  Thursday's result saw a big swing from the Conservatives to Reform, but the defending party hung on.  This ward falls in the Sherwood Forest constituency, a major target seat for Reform at the next general election, currently held by Labour's Michelle Welsh.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Southwell, Nottinghamshire County Council

Con: 2,019 (45.3%) +7.8%

Ref: 1,159 (26.0%) +1.8%

Lab: 646 (14.5%) +1.1%

LDm: 545 (12.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 88 (2.0%) -3.2%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was serving concurrently on Newark and Sherwood Council and triggered a separate by-election there (see above).  Notts County Council was also previously held by the Conservatives, but a colossal shift to Reform in the 2025 local elections gave control to Farage's party.  Reform gained a whopping 39 seats in that election, 19 of which were gains from the Conservatives.  Most of these gains were in the north and west of the county, with Southwell lying to the east and remaining firmly in Tory hands.  The Conservatives extended their lead here on Thursday, which will be of some concern to local MP Robert Jenrick, having jumped the Uniparty ship for Reform.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

The one differential in their head-to-head predictions proved pivotal for Karl, who beat Richey by a single point to draw level overall.  It was the fifth consecutive week that Karl has beaten Richey.

TOON TUESDAY #113

It's been several months since we last indulged in some cartoons and this is by no means a return to a weekly feature, but we will do our best in between work shifts and GP visits.

The theme here is PANIC!  Remarkably, none of the major newspapers featured Mr Potato Head telling the nation to be afraid.  With the exception of The Mirror's Pete Songi - an unpublished toon featured below - there was no Wes Streeting in sight.  In fact, despite the obvious plethora of opportunities for a state engaged in such rampant scaremongering, most cartoonists opted to depict events in France or the forthcoming Budget.  The latter is scheduled to land tomorrow, so perhaps we will revisit that theme next week.

Pete Songi on X

Nick Newman for The Sunday Times

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Morten Morland for The Times

Matt Pritchett for The Daily Telegraph

Guy Venables for Metro

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Jeremy Banks for Financial Times

Chris Riddell for The Observer

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

MEME MONDAY #106

Slim pickings last week...

Mon 19 Oct - 58 shares

Fri 23 Oct - 1,328 shares

Sat 24 Oct - 36 shares

Sun 25 Oct - 505 shares

Sun 25 Oct - 2 shares.  Featuring a scene from Paris

Five Facebook Stories were published last week, including a new Scottish version of 'Diversity Is Strength'...

BOATWATCH #82

Very poor weather led to a second successive week of zero crossings, which is perfectly normal at this time of year.  No boats have been picked up since October 7, but calmer weather is on the way...

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.10.26

There were five council seats up for grabs on Thursday - two Labour defences, a defence each for the Greens and Conservatives, plus a free-for-all in Lincolnshire.

If recent weeks were about the Burnham bounce, this week was very much a Badenoch bounce.  The Conservatives gained three of the five seats, while holding their solitary defence.  Reform are now five weeks without a single election gain or hold.

Is the Uniparty well and truly back from the brink?

Saron, Carmarthernshire County Council

Pld: 397 (43.9%) +4.2%

Ref: 253 (28.0%) New

Lab: 159 (17.6%) -21.6%

Con: 44 (4.9%) New

Ind: 41 (4.5%) New

LDm: 11 (1.2%) -6.5%

Pld GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who had served this rural ward in two separate spells dating back to 2004.  No cause of death was provided, but the chap was clearly in his 70s judging by his council portrait.  He lost his seat to Plaid Cymru in 2017, but regained it in 2022.  Plaid again topped the poll in 2022 - albeit narrowly by eight votes - but he got himself ahead of their other candidate to take the second available seat.  Despite the prevalence of the Welsh language in Carmarthenshire (or Sir Gaerfyrddin to give its Welsh name), Plaid have only briefly held outright control of the council - between 2022 and 2024 - and until Thursday had to rely on support from independents to run the council.  Their gain here on Thursday gives them outright control, while Welsh Labour will be alarmed by their slide to third place behind newcomers Reform.

Karl - Pld GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Hertford Kingsmead, East Herts District Council

Con: 575 (35.3%) +8.9%

Grn: 529 (32.4%) -4.4%

Ref: 253 (15.5%) New

Lab: 164 (10.1%) -5.8%

LDm: 110 (6.7%) -14.3%

Con GAIN from Grn

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who stood down for a variety of reasons.  Her resignation letter bemoaned local government reforms and also personal abuse suffered in her role as planning officer.  There appeared to be a general overall frustration with the workings of local government.  She had been elected in the 2023 election as the third placed candidate alongside her two Green colleagues, as the party swept up all three seats in this ward on the eastern side of the county town.  The Greens emerged from that election as the largest party on East Herts and they went on to form a coalition with the Lib Dems.  That coalition will continue, despite Thursday's defeat to the Conservatives.

Karl - LDm GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Calverley & Farsley, Leeds City Council

Con: 2,330 (40.2%) +3.6%

Lab: 2,134 (36.8%) +9.5%

Ref: 693 (12.0%) -4.8%

Grn: 341 (5.9%) -10.4%

Res: 151 (2.6%) New

LDm: 92 (1.6%) -1.5%

Yrks: 57 (1.0%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, due to both physical and mental health issues.  He had served this semi-rural ward to the north of Leeds since 2018.  However, it was the Tories who emerged victorious in this ward back in May this year, when a third of seats were up for election.  Labour lost outright control of the council in that election, but continue to run it as a minority administration.  Thursday's defeat to the Tories does not change that, as Labour remain far and away the largest party on the council.  The Yorkshire Party - which campaigns for a devolved Yorkshire parliament and has no elected representatives anywhere - collected the wooden spoon.

Karl - Con GAIN ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven District Council

Con: 437 (38.3%) +4.6%

Ref: 286 (25.1%) New

Ind: 149 (13.1%) New

Lab: 141 (12.4%) -3.8%

Grn: 74 (6.5%) -7.1%

Ind: 54 (4.7%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, officially for 'personal reasons'.  However, in a statement posted to social media, he had expressed frustration with the mechanics of local government.  Perhaps his exasperation wasn't helped by the composition of the council, which is unusual in that it is controlled by a disparate bunch of independents - which included himself.  The council had slumped into no overall control in 2023, ending twenty years of outright Tory control.  Thursday's action took place in the birthplace of Margaret Thatcher and she would have been pleased to see her party regain a seat on the council in this free-for-all contest on Thursday.  The Lib Dems did not field a candidate this time (they finished fourth last time, with 135 votes).

Karl - Con GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Hartlebury, Wychavon District Council

Con: 315 (49.9%) -7.6%

Ref: 238 (37.7%) New

Lab: 78 (12.4%) New

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who stood down prior to disqualification for not having attended a single council meeting in six months.  He had been elected in 2023, the last time voters went  to the polls in this rural ward to the south of Kidderminster.  He received 444 votes in a four way contest against a Green (157), a Lib Dem (122) and an independent (49).  On Thursday the Tory candidate looking to replace him will be up against just two candidates - both of whom new entries - Labour and Reform.  The Conservatives have controlled Wychavon since 1999 and that won't change were they to lose this seat.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Karl bested Richey for the fourth week in a row, cutting Richey's lead to just a single point.

MEME MONDAY #105

A mixed bag of circulation last week, ranging from just 11 shares to an impressive 4,271...

Mon 12 Oct - 1,288 shares

Tue 13 Oct - 18 shares

Tue 13 Oct - 53 shares

Wed 14 Oct - 11 shares

Thu 15 Oct - 141 shares

Fri 16 Oct - 761 shares

Sat 17 Oct - 39 shares

Sun 18 Oct - 4,271 shares

Six Facebook Stories were published last week, all but one focusing on the increasingly laughable establishment propaganda tag line of 'diversity is strength'.  All three convictions showcased this week are from our highly enriched Second City...

BOATWATCH #81

The pre-winter rush gave way to a big lull in crossings that began back on October 8.  This was followed by zero crossings last week, which may or may not have been largely down to choppy conditions in the Channel.  These poor weather conditions culminated in near gale force winds towards the end of the week, making crosssings impossible.  Mixed conditions are expected this week, with more strong winds expected again towards the end of the week.  It could be a while before the next crossings.

BUT THEY WILL COME!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 15.10.26

There were five by-elections this week, including a Cotswold vacancy that was decided on the unorthodox polling day of Tuesday.  The four seats being decided on Thursday consisted of two Lib Dem defences, one Reform and one free-for-all.

Reform continued to strike out for a fourth successive week, losing yet another seat to Labour.  Restore Britain were present again, as they have been in three out of the four Reform losses to Labour during this period.  Reform's slide coincides with a poll boost for Labour, who are now holding and gaining seats under Burnham.  No wonder Starmer has skulked off to do his NGO thing...

Higher Kinnerton, Flintshire County Council

Ind: 566 (91.3%) New

Con: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref: 21 (3.4%) New

Hrt: 10 (1.6%) New

Ind: 2 (0.3%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

This vacancy was triggered in somewhat murky circumstances.  While Flintshire Council has stated that the incumbent resigned, other sources suggest that he passed away.  Of course, he could have resigned his seat and then passed away.  Either way, we had a free-for-all to replace an unaligned councillor, who was elected unopposed in 2022.  Independent candidates are very popular in Flintshire, with as many independent councillors as those belonging to the largest party - currently Labour.  Labour run Flintshire alongside 13 of these independents, but they did not contest this rural ward on Thursday.  In fact there were no left-wing parties standing.  Reform, the Conservatives and Heritage went up against two independents (one of which from local group the 'Flintshire People's Voice').  The Flintshire People's Voice triumphed, while Reform and the Tories tied for second place a considerable way off.

Karl - Ind GAIN (Flintshire People's Voice) ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Shepshed, Leicestershire County Council

Lab: 1,163 (32.8%) +14.9%

Ref: 1,110 (31.3%) -13.6%

Con: 819 (23.1%) -2.4%

Res: 228 (6.4%) New

LDm: 115 (3.2%) -3.4%

Grn: 112 (3.2%) -1.9%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, citing family commitments.  She had been elected in May 2025 by a considerable margin over the sitting Conservative.  Reform demolished the Tories in that election, taking 24 seats from the party that had controlled the council outright since 2001.  However, the newcomers were three seats short of a majority and have run the council as a minority administration since.  Reform's loss in this small market town on Thursday did not affect the status quo with regards to the administration.  As we have repeatedly seen in recent weeks, the addition of a Restore Britain candidate spells disaster for Reform.  Reform may well have held off Labour, were it not for the 228 votes that went to Restore.  Reform lost by 53 votes.

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Bradninch, Mid Devon District Council

LDm: 476 (72.6%) -9.6%

Ref: 91 (13.9%) New

Con: 37 (5.6%) -0.6%

Lab: 31 (4.7%) -6.9%

Grn: 21 (3.2%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who is relocating to the United States for work.  He was previously the council leader, but resigned that post back in May in preparation for his big move.  The Lib Dems have a strong grip on the council following the 2023 election, from which they emerged with 34 of the council's 42 seats.  This ended more than two decades of no overall control.  The party romped home in this rural ward in 2023 against Labour and the Conservatives.  A dip in vote share, as Reform jumped straight in at second, wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to cop defeat here.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Salisbury Milford, Wiltshire Council

LDm: 759 (45.6%) +1.8%

Con: 605 (36.4%) +12.4%

Ref: 189 (11.4%) -6.7%

Lab: 110 (6.6%) -2.1%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent for 'personal reasons'.  This was probably the most important by-election of the night, because its outcome could have affected what parties run the council.  In 2025, the Conservatives lost outright control of the council for the first time in 25 years.  The Lib Dems emerged the largest party and currently run the council as a minority administration.  They had to rely on support from independent councillors in order to form that administration, but defeat on Thursday to either Reform or the Tories would have tipped the numbers against them.  The Conservatives were four seats behind the Lib Dems and looked set to form either a minority administration of their own - with Reform support - or a formal coalition with Reform.  The scene for this decider was this upmarket ward that covers the enture eastern side of the city of Salisbury.  The Greens finished last here in 2025 with 81 votes and did not contest this time around.  The Tories delivered a valiant effort to try and take the seat - and the council - but the Lib Dem machine was too much for them.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

The following by-election was held on Tuesday.

Rodborough, Stroud District Council

Lab: 697 (47.0%) +13.2%

Grn: 470 (31.7%) +1.5%

Ref: 191 (12.9%) New

Con: 103 (6.9%) -3.9%

LDm: 23 (1.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, on health grounds.  This semi-rural ward to the south of Stroud has very much been a battle between Labour and the Greens in recent years, much like control of the council.  Stroud has been in no overall control since 2012, much of that period having a minority Labour administration.  However, since 2022 it has been a minority Green administration at the helm and they remain two seats away from outright control after Tursday's result.  With no independent standing this time, there had been a significant amount of independent votes up for grabs.  Labour scored another impressive result, extending their lead over the Greens and reflecting their recent national polling.  Reform bested the Tories as the best of the rest.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

Karl beat Richey for the third successive week to close the lead to three points.  Karl has been one short of a perfect score two weeks on the trot.

MEME MONDAY #104

Open borders and its disastrous consequences were prominent themes last week...

Mon 5 Oct - 3,302 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 529 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 231 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 4 shares

Wed 7 Oct - 89 shares

Thu 8 Oct - 38 shares

Sat 10 Oct - 21 shares

Sun 11 Oct - 13 shares

Sun 11 Oct - 115 shares

Another four editions of Diversity Is Strength were published last week, the series that will probably never end...