It's by-election day in Gorton and Denton and this fascinating contest is going to keep plenty of Brits up into the early hours to see which way this tight election swings.
This is the second Westminster by-election in the current Parliament, the previous being Runcorn and Helsby. That seat was also vacated by a Labour MP (Mike Amesbury) and it was one of the closest fought elections in history, with Reform taking the seat by just six votes. Reform would take a similar result in Gorton and Denton, but this is a far more complex battleground.
Reform won't just be taking on Labour here, as the Green Party also pose a significant threat. In fact, in recent weeks the Greens have overtaken Reform in both polling and betting markets. However, the contest is reportedly so tight that the eventual winner is hard to predict.
First off, let's recap what happened in the general election.
Gorton and Denton, 2024 general election
Andrew Gwynne (Lab) 18,555 (50.8%) -16.4%
Lee Moffitt (Ref) 5,142 (14.1%) +9.2%
Amanda Gardner (Grn) 4,810 (13.2%) +10.7%
Amir Burney (WPB) 3,766 (10.3%) New
Ruth Welsh (Con) 2,888 (7.9%) -11.0%
John Reid (LDm) 1,399 (3.8%) -2.0%
As you can see, Labour will be defending a significant 13,413 majority. This should be an easily defensible majority, but such is the meteoric collapse in Labour support since the general election, there is every chance they will finish third in this by-election. For context, Labour were defending an even bigger majority in Runcorn and Helsby last May (14,696). Crucially, Labour are less popular now than they were at that time. Last May they were polling in a range of 20-26 per cent nationally, but they are now polling in a range of 16-22 per cent.
Labour's vote share in recent council by-elections has been routinely collapsing in double digits, with a figure around the 20 per cent mark representing a rough average. However, every seat is different and they have obviously poured national resources into Gorton and Denton for weeks on end. We would still expect Labour's share of the vote to plummet by at least 15 per cent, possibly up to 20 per cent. That is what makes this a three-way contest as a collapse in support brings both Reform and the Greens into play.
Few people expect Labour to hold here and betting markets clearly reflect this.
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| Latest odds according to oddschecker.com |
One cannot obviously read too much into betting markets per se, but they have proved time and again to be as reliable (or unreliable) as polling.
So, what do the polls say?
Two polls have been conducted recently, both of which favour the Greens. An earlier poll conducted by Find Out Now favoured Reform, but this was taken way back in January before any candidates had been announced and it also had an absurd sample size of just 143 from a constituency with more than 74,000 voters.
Omnisis poll, 13-19 February
Grn = 33%
Ref = 29%
Lab = 26%
Oth = 12%
Opinium poll, 16-24 February
Lab/Grn = 28%
Ref = 27%
Oth = 16%
These are tight margins, in particular the Opinium poll which ties Labour and the Greens. However, the Opinium poll has a caveat. It asked an additional question on voting likelihood. When this is considered, the result shifts towards the Greens.
Opinium poll, 16-24 February, those likely to vote
Grn 30%
Lab/Ref 28%
Oth = 15%
It is still extremely tight, but again we can't draw too much from these polls on their own.
Canvassing returns from both Reform and the Greens reportedly favour Reform, albeit marginally ahead of the Greens. Labour has remain tight-lipped on its own canvass returns, which could suggest they are not exactly flattering for the party. Labour has also gone to great lengths to ignore the Green Party in this by-election, painting it as a head-to-head battle in which only Reform can beat them. This could also suggest that their own canvassing does not reflect this campaign message and shows that the Greens are indeed a major threat.
It was interesting to note that when Keir Starmer visited the constituency earlier this week, he did meet any members of the public. Instead, he merely attended a private meeting of Labour activists. It is not clear whose decision this was, but it was almost certainly to avoid any damaging interactions with the public. Labour are toast here and they know it. Nigel Farage has had no issues pounding the streets with Reform activists, likewise Zack Polanski.
Much has been made in recent days of the Green Party's overtures to the Muslim community. It appears that they have fought so hard in this direction that it could actually backfire on them. The Muslim population here stood at 29.6 per cent according to the 2021 census. That could be enough to swing any tight by-election, but there is nothing to suggest that the Muslim community will abandon Labour in its entirety. There were plenty of Muslim faces present at the Labour meeting attended by Keir Starmer earlier this week. Furthermore, Labour has decades of experience fixing elections in these communities and they will have taken full advantage of the postal vote system, rendering the last week of Green campaigning meaningless with those postal votes already filled out en masse.
While Muslim voters could potentially swing the election in the Greens' favour, that community will clearly be split to some degree, while the majority of the constituency is neither Muslim or duty bound to vote for left-wing candidates.
That favours Reform. While Labour and the Greens desperately fight it out for Muslim votes, Reform have got out and explored all the other demographics at play. We know that white working classes largely tend to give Labour the cold shoulder these days, but turnout is notoriously low. The white middle class demographic will also be crucial to Reform, but we know that this is the only native demographic that still entertains Labour and the left to any significant degree. There is plenty of evidence from more affluent parts of the constituency that Reform has made headway.
While it would be easy to follow betting markets and the pollsters with their pathetic samples and dubious methods, we are looking at a major split in the left-wing vote as the deciding factor in the outcome. Yes, this area has returned Labour MPs and councillors for the best part of a century, but the game has changed. Labour is crumbling. And yes, the Greens will benefit here, but so will Reform.
It is a myth that Reform's vote is made up purely of defecting Tory voters. When one looks at the urban conurbations where Reform are winning seats, they can only do so by picking up defecting Labour voters too. There are still native and minority voters who have spent generations voting Labour and know nothing else. They are not always technically 'left-wing', do not necessarily share 'progressive' values and in some cases are not politically minded. Times are changing, thanks in no small part to the rise of social media and alternative news. This is why the establishment fears these things and is desperately looking to censor such outlets, particularly for youngsters. Labour and the left have had decades in control and they have failed to achieve anything positive for the masses.
That's why, all things considered, we are going to call this by-election very narrowly for Reform. This prediction is by no means delivered with any degree of confidence, but one of these three parties must triumph and whichever does so is unlikely to achieve it with a significant majority of anything more than a thousand votes.
We will bring you updates through the night and deliver the result here, on Facebook and X, no matter the time.
Council by-elections
There is also one council by-election taking place on Thursday, down on the south coast. Shirley is the birthplace of Rishi Sunak, but there will be no Tory surprises here. The result will almost certainly be a hold for the Lib Dems.
Shirley, Southampton City Council
(LDm defence)
