BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted since he was crowned PM.  Labour saw their majority more than halved in Greater Manchester, while simultaneously losing a council seat on that patch to a Muslim independent.  They were overtaken by Reform in an Essex council seat (unable to replicate the two gains they made in that county last week) and they entered a Hampshire contest only to finish last with 41 votes.

The Burnham bounce seen in recent polls is clearly not being reflected in actual elections.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

First preferences

Bev Craig (Lab): 251,449 (47.2%) -16.2%

Sian Astley (Ref): 111,928 (21.0%) +13.5%

Geraldine Coggins (Grn): 64,968 (12.2%) +5.3%

Marlon West (Res): 46,289 (8.7%) New

Phil Eckersley (Con): 41,021 (7.7%) -2.7%

Richard Kilpatrick (LDm): 14,702 (2.2%) -2.0%

Marcus Farmer (Ind): 2,969 (0.6%) New

Second round

Bev Craig (Lab): 309,525 (66.3%) 

Sian Astley (Ref): 157,178 (33.7%) 

Lab HOLD

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power cost taxpayers around £4.7million to stage this by-election, in which only one in four voters bothered to show up.  Burnham wants people to embrace devolution, but judging by this turnout, he's got a lot of work to do to.

This election deployed the supplementary vote system, in which voters record their first and second preferences.  If no candidate surpasses a 50 per cent vote share on first preferences, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes are then added to their existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.  Burnham never needed a run-off, as he received first preference votes of 63 per cent in 2017 and 2024, and 67 per cent in 2021.  Step forward to 2026 and things did not look as rosy for his successor.

The second placed Conservative was more than 350,000 votes behind Burnham in 2024, with Reform lagging further behind in fourth place.  This time around, the Tories slumped to fifth place as Reform surged into second and more than halved Labour's majority.  Even Restore Britain beat Kemi Badenoch's candidate, although both parties rescued their £5,000 deposit.  There was disappointment for the Greens, who finished a considerable way behind Reform in third place.

The count was somewhat controversial, in that it took the entirety of Friday to complete and first preference totals were not confirmed until after 19:00.  An initial declaration was expected by mid-afternoon and officials gave no explanation as to the delay.  A final declaration took a further four hours to arrive, with the Labour candidate beating Reform comfortably in the run-off.  Labour topped the poll in all ten of Greater Manchester's local authorities, with Reform second in all but two - Manchester itself, where the Greens finished with more than twice the Reform vote, and Trafford, where the Conservatives were runners-up.  Reform's best vote share was 30.2 per cent in Wigan, but the closest they came to Labour was in Oldham, where the gap between the two parties was 12.2 per cent.

The winning candidate was Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is a member of the Fabian Society and an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

Andy Burnham will be privately concerned about Labour's performance here.  The by-election was partially an indictment of his own mayoralty and partially an indictment on his new government.  Labour's majority crashed from 351,803 to 152,347.  The atrocious turnout meant that the cost of the election was almost £9 for every vote cast, suggesting widespread apathy with the kind of devolution that Burnham is currently pushing.

There was not even a Burnham bounce in the place where he was coined 'King in the North'.

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.07.26

Five council seats were filled this week - three Tory defences across the south of England and a pair of Reform defences in Essex.  With Karl out of action, possibly for some time, head-to-head forecasts are on hold.

Labour contested four of the five seats, with all eyes on any signs of a 'Burnham bounce'.  The headline results will undoubtedly be two Labour gains from Reform, something unheard of during Starmer's reign.  However, those results were skewed by the circumstances surrounding the departure of the incumbents.  Elsewhere, there was nothing for Labour to crow about.  They suffered an almost double digit dip in vote share in Kent, as Reform came from nowhere to push them down from third to fourth.  They were new entries in Gloucestershire, but finished a distant fourth, while fellow newcomers Reform garnered almost three times as many votes.

Exmouth Brixington, East Devon District Council

Con: 537 (35.2%) -2.1%

LDm: 450 (29.5%) -3.1%

Ref: 439 (28.7%) New

Grn: 101 (6.6%) -2.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, for reasons that she did not make public.  The Conservatives won all three seats in this ward in 2023 and held one of them in a by-election the following year, albeit with a reduced majority.  They managed to increase their majority slightly this time, as the Lib Dems slipped further behind.  Labour, who finished third previously with 339 votes, dropped out this time.  Reform were the only party that benefited from Labour's absence.

Cuxton, Halling & Riverside, Medway Council

Ref: 838 (35.7%) New

Con: 726 (30.9%) -12.9%

Grn: 482 (20.5%) -11.4%

Lab: 269 (11.4%) -9.1%

LDm: 35 (1.5%) -2.3%

Ref GAIN from Con

Triggered by the death of the 74-year-old Conservative incumbent.  He had served as a councillor for more than 30 years, but had reportedly been suffering from vascular dementia for some time.  This begs the question as to why he did not stand down earlier.  He and his Tory colleague won both seats in this ward in 2023, a set of elections that ended 20 years of Conservative control in Medway.  Labour required a significant Burnham bounce in order to add this seat to their ruling majority, but in fact they slumped from third to fourth as all the parties ceded vote share to Reform.  A stunning gain from scatch for Farage's party.

Longwell Green, South Gloucestershire Council

Con: 951 (37.3%) -11.2%

Ref: 698 (27.4%) New

LDm: 511 (20.0%) -10.4%

Lab: 246 (9.7%) New

Grn: 143 (5.6%) New

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, who quit his role in order to join the Royal Navy.  The Tories won both seats here in 2023, a contest in which they went up against only two Lib Dems and an independent.  The independent received more than 600 votes, but did not stand this time.  Of the three new entries, Reform topped the pile, with an underwhelming result for Labour.

Grays Riverside, Thurrock Council

Lab: 389 (30.2%) +3.8%

Ref: 362 (28.1%) -5.1%

Grn: 354 (27.5%) -1.9%

Con: 182 (14.1%) +3.1%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The first of an Essex double bill triggered by Reform councillors standing down just two weeks after being elected on May 7.  The newly elected Riverside candidate said he needed to focus on supporting a family member with a serious illness.  It must have been a sudden illness, either that or he didn't expect to win.  Reform swept to power in Thurrock on May 7, taking all but four of the council's 49 seats.  Labour went from controlling the council with 26 seats, to just two seats.  They managed to double that tally on Thursday, thanks to a poor show by Reform.  In Riverside, Labour sought to capitalise on historic social media posts by the defending Reform candidate.  These posts dated back more than 12 years and were mostly of a misogynistic nature, alongside the use of a racial slur and some anti-disabled comments.  It's difficult to present this result as evidence of a 'Burnham bounce'.

Grays Town, Thurrock Council

Lab: 673 (37.0%) +5.3%

Ref: 491 (27.0%) -7.8%

Ind: 235 (13.0%) New

Con: 224 (12.3%) +1.3%

Grn: 160 (8.8%) -7.3%

LDm: 34 (1.9%) -4.5%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The newly elected Reform councillor stood down after May 7, citing 'a change in personal circumstances'.  With just a fortnight having passed, those circumstances must have changed pretty damn quick!  As with the Riverside vacancy (see above), Reform chose one of its four unsuccessful candidates from May 7 in order to defend the seat.  He failed to do so, with Labour climbing from second place to take an unlikely gain.  Perhaps Reform activists had been diverted to Clacton during the campaign, or perhaps this really was a Burnham bounce.  Multiple factors were at play in the two Thurrock seats, not least an electorate unhappy with being asked to vote again so soon due to poor candidate vetting.

RECORD BALLOT IN CLACTON

Nigel Farage campaigning in Clacton during the 2024 general election

The main parties may be absent from the Clacton ballot paper, but there will be plenty of candidates for voters to choose from in the August 13 clown show.  In fact, this by-election will have the most crowded ballot paper in British electoral history - a staggering total of 34 candidates.  This eclipses the previous record of 26 candidates, which was set in the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election.  That by-election was triggered in similar fashion by Tory MP David Davis, who resigned his seat and went on to win the resulting by-election.

Nominations for Clacton closed on Friday and the long list of candidates includes no less than 21 independents and the highly unusual presence of multiple candidates from the Monster Raving Loony Party - three in fact.  This was in part due to the already comical nature of the by-election, plus there are a few electoral records at stake - it's never been done before and the party leader (Howling Laud Hope) will break the record set by his predecessor (Screaming Lord Sutch) for most by-elections contested.

There are eight small parties standing, some of which we have never heard of, such as Consensus and Everyone is God.  The most prominent among these is Laurence Fox, whose Reclaim Party is standing for the first time since the 2023 Uxbridge by-election.  Fox lost his deposit that night, in fact his party have lost their deposit in every election they have ever contested - which isn't many, as this will be only their fifth outing.

The farcical nature of this by-election is epitomised by the litany of clown candidates standing.  Three Monster Raving Loons aside, we've got candidates calling themselves Joseph 77, Woke Trump Carzee and, of course, the establishment hope Count Binface.  The left-wing comedian who dons the costume was one of the earliest candidates to declare his intention to stand, which led to a media frenzy around him designed to present him as a potential challenger to Farage.  Labour donor Dale Vince offered to fund Binface's campaign to the tune of £180,000, while Andy Burnham said Binface "is carrying the hopes of the nation".

They are all desperate to frame the contest as a straightforward head-to-head, in an attempt to mock Farage and possibly unseat him or in the very least inflict a close call that would be a huge embarrassment to the Reform leader.  Defeat against Clown Binface would be career-ending for Farage and it's not beyond the realms of possibility - more people voted for other parties in 2024 than voted for Reform - and Brits do love a novelty act.  However, with 32 other candidates now in the hat, that possibility is greatly diminished.  It would also be highly unlikely that thousands of Tory voters would back a left-wing clown dressed as a bin.  The Conservatives finished second here in 2024.

No constituency polling has been published as yet, but betting markets strongly favour Farage.  He is currently odds on across the board, with most bookies only offering odds on him and Binface.  It does look incredibly likely that 32 candidates will lose their deposits, which will present the treasury with a tidy sum £16,000.

The full list of candidates is as follows.

Joseph 77 (Ind)

Adham Alkhatip (Forward)

Count Binface (Ind)

Nick The Incredible Flying Brick (Loon)

Tony Cane (Ind)

Woke Trump Carrzee (Ind)

William Clouston (SDP)

Rees Cowne (Ind)

Glenn Cummings (Ind)

Martin Davies (Freedom Alliance)

Andy Erlam (Ind)

Nigel Farage (Reform)

Attieh Fard (Ind)

Laurence Fox (Reclaim)

Tony Francis (Ind)

Robin Green (Ind)

Abi Hookway (Ind)

Howling Laud Hope (Loon)

Stephen Ingram (Ind)

Amy Morris (Ind)

Derrick Morris (Ind)

Martyn O'Brien (Ind)

Michael O'Keeffe (Ind)

Nick Pelas (Ind)

Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice)

Daniel Pocock (Ind)

James Ransley (Consensus)

Gerry Smith (Ind)

Kai Stephens (British Democrats)

John Stevens (Rejoin EU)

Baron Von Thunderclap (Loon)

Pamela Walford (Ind)

Marcus White (Everyone is God)

Marc Wilkinson (Ind)

Clacton 2024 general election result

Nigel Farage (Ref) 21,225 (46.2%) New

Giles Watling (Con) 12,820 (27.9%) -44.0%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (Lab) 7,448 (16.2%) +0.6%

Matthew Bensilum (LDm) 2,016 (4.4%) -1.8%

Natasha Osben (Grn) 1,935 (4.2%) +1.3%

Tony Mack (Ind) 317 (0.7%) New

Andrew Pemberton (UKIP) 116 (0.3%) New

Craig Jamieson (Clm) 48 (0.1%) New

Tasos Papanastasiou (Hrt) 33 (0.1%) New

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

BY-ELECTIONS 18.06.26

It's an absolute bonanza this week, with no less than three Westminster by-elections and 18 council seats up for grabs.  The full list of results can be found below in three sections, beginning with the big three...

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS

Aberdeen South

Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%

Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%

Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%

Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%

Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%

David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New

Con GAIN from SNP

A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019.  Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion.  The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections.  Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).

Karl - SNP HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP HOLD ✘

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Lara Bird  (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%

Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%

Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%

Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%

Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%

SNP HOLD

This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position.  Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems.  This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election.  It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP.  The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859.  They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Makerfield

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%)  +0.7%

Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%

Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New

Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%

Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%

Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%

Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New

Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%)  New

Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous.  On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997.  Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983.  There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street.  Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

(three seats)

LDm: 2,784 (19.0%)

LDm: 2,746 (18.7%)

LDm: 2,714 (18.5%)

Ref: 1,582 (10.8%)

Ref: 1,573 (10.7%)

Ref: 1,528 (10.4%)

Grn: 237 (1.6%)

Grn: 229 (1.6%)

Lab: 208 (1.4%)

Grn: 204 (1.4%)

LDm HOLD x 3

This election was rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council.  It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away.  The Lib Dems usually romp home here, but the boundaries have been redrawn slightly for this election.  There was a small dip in their vote share, but they held off newcomers Reform with ease.  Intriguingly, Labour only fielded a single candidate.  They needn't have bothered at all.

Karl - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%

Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New

WPB: 609 (18.4%) New

Grn: 200 (6.0%) New

Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%

Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%

Lab HOLD

Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate.  The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents.  Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform.  George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Chelmsford Springfield, Essex County Council

LDm: 3,203 (54.6%) +8.6%

Ref: 1,616 (27.5%) New

Con: 723 (12.3%) -25.1%

Grn: 216 (3.7%) -2.3%

Lab: 110 (1.9%) -7.3%

LDm HOLD

Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council wards, this seat was postponed after the incumbent passed away.  The boundaries were redrawn slightly, which appeared to favour the Lib Dems.  There was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council

(two seats)

Con: 1,084 (24.4%)

Con: 949 (21.3%)

Lab: 470 (10.6%)

Ref: 433 (9.7%)

Lab: 362 (8.1%)

Grn: 353 (7.9%)

Ref: 347 (7.8%)

Grn: 341 (7.7%)

LDm: 63 (1.4%)

LDm: 49 (1.1%)

Con HOLD x 2

This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away.  Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share.  The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent.  The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.

Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔

Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1  ✘

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 496 (33.8%) New

Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%

Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%

LDm: 178 (12.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month.  Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs.  Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 357 (43.4%) New

Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%

Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%

Grn: 71 (8.6%) New

LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way.  There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Rayleigh West, Essex County Council

Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5% LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9% Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3% Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%

Ind: 117 (2.7%) New Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9% Ind: 35 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections.  Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office.  Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below).  Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out.  The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council

Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%

Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%

Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%

LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%

Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%

Ind: 10 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor.  Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor.  This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens.  There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%

Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%

Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%

LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%

Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%

Con HOLD

A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote.  This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council

Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%

Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%

LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%

Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%

Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details).  The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion.  There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out.  Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Mumbles, Swansea Council

Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%

Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%

Ref: 458 (18.3%) New

Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%

Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 118 (4.7%) New

LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd.  The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025.  Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour.  It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Morriston, Swansea Council

Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%

Ref: 882 (31.8%) New

Pld: 569 (21.9%) New

Grn: 107 (4.1%) New

LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%

Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78.  His daughter became his successor, but only just.  She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✘

Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%

Ref: 300 (34.1%) New

Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%

Ind: 78 (8.2%) New

Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%

LDm: 8 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%

Pld HOLD

This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd.  Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%

Ref: 105 (22.0%) New

Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%

Ind: 22 (4.6%) New

YrP: 20 (4.2%) New

Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%

Grn: 11 (2.3%) New

LDm: 2 (0.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month.  This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around.  Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn.  Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%

Ref: 86 (37.4%) New

Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 11 (4.7%) New

Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%

Pld HOLD

The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member.  Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut.  Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

With both lads going mostly like for like this week, Karl's lead was unlikely to be threatened.  Richey bested Karl this week by one seat, cutting his opponent's overall lead down to two.  Both now have more respectable success rates, above 50 per cent.  There are even more council seats up for grabs next week - a whopping 24 - so the numbers are set to change radically again.

PS. This is a bit of fun, but we fully acknowledge the absolute seriousness of these election results.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.03.26

Five council seats were up for grabs this week, with one Labour defence taking place in Staffordshire.  That Tamworth by-election was a tough one to call, with both Reform and the Greens debuting in a historically Tory ward that was gained by Labour three years ago.  We said Labour wouldn't hold and they finished last, with the insurgent parties taking the top two spots.  We predicted a rare Tory gain here, but it was an impressive Reform gain, topping the poll with more than twice the number of votes as the second placed Greens.

Over in Essex, Reform narrowly gained a second seat at the hands of an independent group affiliated with the Greens.  The margin was 37 votes, but a win's a win.  We predicted an Independent hold.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Reform on the night, with a worrying defeat for the party in County Durham - a county council they control.  We thought Reform had got enough to hold, but astonishingly Labour stormed back in one of their old northern strongholds.  It wasn't even close as Reform slumped to second and Labour gained their first council seat since May 2025.  The result was the first to declare on the night, which led some morons on social media to celebrate a tad early.  They went quiet after the party gained two seats elsewhere, and overall the narrative around a burst bubble was opened up to ridicule - Reform finished either first or second in all five available seats.

As we expected, it was a routine hold for the Greens in their West Country stamping ground, while a free-for-all vacancy went to the Conservatives in Kent (not Reform as we predicted).

One out of five correct this week, it's just a blip!

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ref: 554 (30.7%) New

Ind: 517 (28.7%) -26.3%

Lab: 366 (20.3%) +4.4%

Con: 311 (17.2%) -12.6%

LDm: 55 (3.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Murton, Durham County Council

Lab: 1,004 (50.6%) +17.6%

Ref: 786 (39.6%) -4.5%

Grn: 95 (4.8%) New

Con: 61 (3.1%) -2.0%

LDm: 38 (1.9%) -2.3%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Hextable. Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 600 (38.9%) +19.3%

Ref: 406 (26.3%) New

LDm: 367 (23.8%) New

Ind: 108 (7.0%) New

Grn: 62 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Thrupp, Stroud District Council

Grn: 540 (67.5%) +3.1%

Ref: 132 (16.5%) New

Con: 58 (7.3%) -10.3%

Lab: 48 (5.8%) -12.3%

LDm: 22 (2.8%) New

UKIP: 2 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Spital, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 719 (44.6%) New

Grn: 337 (20.4%) New

Con: 319 (19.4%) -18.9%

Lab: 273 (16.6%) -23.4%

Ref GAIN from Lab

BY-ELECTIONS 23.10.25

Plaid Cymru have taken the Senedd seat of Caerphilly in a crucial indicator of how next May's Senedd elections could pan out.

Labour's red wall in south Wales has never fallen, not even in the 2019 Brexit election that saw many seats in the red wall across northern England turn Tory blue.  However, recent council by-elections had seen Reform taking several Labour seats in the Valleys that make up the sturdiest red wall of all.

Reform were also expected to take the Senedd seat of Caerphilly on Thursday, but polls and bookmakers called it wrong.  The most recent poll conducted in the constituency found Reform leading on 42 per cent, closely followed by Plaid Cymru on 38 per cent.  Labour were way back on just 12 per cent.  Bookies put even more faith in Reform gaining this seat, making them odds on favourites, considerably ahead of Plaid, but miles in front of Labour who were languishing way back on 33-1.

It would have been a colossal victory for Reform, having previously finished last in 2021 with less than two per cent of the vote.  They still surged past every other party in this by-election - except for one.  Plaid Cymru emerged victorious with a fairly comfortable margin over Reform of 3,848.  Labour finished a distant third, as predicted, but they will take solace in the fact that their left-wing comrades in Plaid were the victors and not the dreaded Reform.

Labour had held Caerphilly since the dawn of what was then known as the Welsh Assembly.  Its first AM (now termed MS) was Ron Davies, the leader of Welsh Labour who led the charge for devolution back in the late 90s, before an infamous incident on Clapham Common in London brought him down in disgrace.

The most recent MS for Caerphilly was Hefin David, who was found dead in a suspected suicide two months ago.  In the 2021 Senedd election he secured Labour's biggest ever majority in the constituency, which has now been overturned by the fake nationalists of Plaid Cymru.  And check out that huge swing from Labour to Reform...

Caerphilly, Senedd

Lindsay Whittle (Pld) 15,961 (47.4%) +19.0%

Llŷr Powell (Ref) 12,113 (36.0%) +34.2%

Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.0%) -34.9%

Gareth Potter (Con) 690 (2.0%) -15.3%

Gareth Hughes (Grn) 516 (1.5%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 497 (1.5%) -1.2%

Anthony Cook (Gwd) 117 (0.3%) New

Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.2%) New

Previous result

Hefin David (Lab) 13,289 (46.0%) +10.7%

Delyth Jewell (Pld) 8,211 (28.4%) -1.1%

Steven Mayfield (Con) 5,013 (17.3%) +8.4%

Stephen Jones (AbAs) 1,119 (3.9%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 787 (2.7%) +1.3%

Tim Price (Ref) 495 (1.7%) New

There were also seven council contests taking place on Thursday, with Labour defending two seats - one each in south Birmingham and Colchester, Essex.  They were defeated in Birmingham by the Lib Dems, who were very much in the ascendancy overall.  The Moseley ward was previously contested for two seats, which is why the vote shares look a little off.  It is very much a left-leaning 'progressive' ward, which is why Reform and the Tories were nowhere to be seen.

Labour managed to cling on in Colchester, holding off a Lib Dem challenge, but saw their vote share plummet.  The Labour vote share was down in every seat contested, with the exception of Glastonbury in Somerset, where they were newcomers.

Reform made a gain in Portsmouth at the hands of an outgoing independent, garnering more than five times the vote of the second placed Tories.  Overall, Reformers would probably be disheartened by this election night, but the truth is that they are still taking the electoral landscape by storm.  From the other six council seats contested, they finished second in four at the first time of asking.

The Tories held a seat in Cambridgeshire, but lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Somerset.  The Lib Dems really were the success story of these council by-elections, gaining three and holding another.  There is still little evidence of a Green bounce, as per opinion polling, although they did marginally increase their vote share in three of five seats contested.

Moseley, Birmingham City Council

LDm: 1,634 (34.7%) -11.9%

Lab: 1,149 (24.4%) -14.1%

Ind: 923 (19.6%) New

Grn: 474 (10.1%) +1.5%

Ref: 345 (7.3%) New

Con: 101 (2.4%) -4.1%

Ind: 80 (1.7%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

New Town & Christ Church, Colchester City Council

Lab: 800 (29.7%) -27.6%

LDm: 657 (24.4%) +12.1%

Ref: 600 (22.3%) New

Grn: 401 (14.9%) +5.3%

Con: 200 (7.4%) -8.9%

Ind: 38 (1.4%) -3.1%

Lab HOLD

Whittlesey North West, Fenland District Council

Con: 483 (47.5%) -9.8%

Ref: 346 (34.1%) New

Ind: 127 (12.5%) New

Lab: 60 (5.9%) -16.2%

Con HOLD

Paulsgrove, Portsmouth City Council

Ref: 1,770 (64.2%) New

Con: 311 (11.3%) -4.0%

Lab: 289 (10.5%) -4.1%

LDm: 239 (8.7%) +5.7%

Grn: 143 (5.3%) +1.9%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Glastonbury, Somerset Council

LDm: 882 (36.4%) -0.7%

Ref: 523 (21.6%) New

Con: 506 (20.9%) -9.7%

Grn: 480 (19.8%) -7.5%

Lab: 35 (1.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Dunster, Somerset Council

LDm: 1142 (49.6%) +8.4%

Ref: 666 (28.9%) New

Con: 449 (19.5%) -22.8%

Lab: 44 (1.9%) -4.2%

LDm GAIN from Con

Milton & Tamarside, Torridge District Council

LDm: 428 (37.5%) New

Ref: 355 (31.1%) New

Con: 191 (16.7%) New

Ind: 101 (8.8%) New

Grn: 67 (5.9%) -23.9%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Gwd = Gwlad

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

AbAs = Abolish the Welsh Assembly

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.10.25

Seven seats were contested on Thursday and it was very nearly a clean sweep for Reform UK.  The party gained five, held one and lost out to Labour by 63 votes in Cheshire.  The latter saw a bruising drop of almost 33 per cent in Labour's vote share.

Reform made relatively easy gains - all as newcomers - from the Tories in Essex and they also took three formerly independent seats in Kent.  They also held a seat on the Isle of Wight with a marginal increase in vote share.

The Labour vote share was down in all four seats the party contested.

Hutton South, Brentwood Borough Council

Ref: 805 (45.8%) New

Con: 544 (30.9%) -14.5%

Lab: 234 (13.3%) -14.5%

LDm: 109 (6.2%) -9.6%

Grn: 66 (3.8%) -7.2%

Ref GAIN from Con

Strawberry, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Lab: 602 (35.8%) -32.9%

Ref: 539 (32.0%) New

Ind: 231 (13.7%) New

Con: 132 (7.8%) -16.8%

LDm: 121 (7.2%) +0.5%

Grn: 58 (3.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Lake North, Isle of Wight Council

Ref: 290 (36.8%) +0.7%

Con: 249 (31.6%) +2.8%

LDm: 118 (15.0%) +4.4%

Grn: 88 (11.2%) -0.9%

Lab: 44 (5.6%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

Harrietsham, Lenham & North Downs, Maidstone Borough Council

(3 seats)

Ref: 1,228, 1,226 & 1,153

Grn: 459, 452 & 430

Con: 342, 285 & 234

LDm: 236, 156 & 123

Hrt: 97

Ind: 74

Ind: 69

Ref GAIN from Ind (x3)

Wigan Central, Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,301 (47.2%) New

Lab: 970 (32.9%) -15.3%

Ind: 196 (6.7%) New

Con: 151 (5.1%) -9.4%

Grn: 130 (4.4%) -2.1%

LDm: 109 (3.7%) +0.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative
Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 31.07.25

Just three council vacancies were fought over this week, two of which were Labour defences.  They managed to fend off a challenge from Green newcomers in east London, where the Labour vote share plummeted by almost 26 per cent.  There was a large swing there from Labour to both the Greens and Reform, who were also newcomers in that ward.

Labour endured a similar collapse in their vote share in Warrington, where Reform UK gained their first seat on that council.  Elsewhere, the Lib Dems completed a routine hold in their south west stronghold, where Labour did not even bother putting up a candidate this time around.  That's understandable, as their 11 per cent last time would have guaranteed them last place, even without their now trademark slump...

Thames View, Barking and Dagenham London Borough Council

Lab: 334 (36.1%) -25.9%

Grn: 277 (29.9%) New

Ref: 197 (21.3%) New

Con: 117 (12.6%) -10.6%

Lab HOLD

Barnstaple with Westacott, North Devon District Council

LDm: 505 (40.5%) +0.5%

Ref: 383 (30.7%) New

Con: 205 (16.4%) -6.1%

Grn: 154 (12.3%) -2.4%

LDm HOLD

Bewsey & Whitecross, Warrington Borough Council

Ref: 752 (43.7%) New

Lab: 631 (36.6%) -22.6%

LDm: 223 (13.0%) -8.4%

Con: 116 (6.7%) -12.7%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.07.25

Nine council seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with action taking place from east to west.

Labour were on the defence in two seats, losing one and holding the other.  In Basildon they lost to Reform who came from nowhere to win fairly comfortably, taking votes from all the other parties.  Labour held in Neath Port Talbot, despite a significant dip in their vote share.  Labour's vote share was down in all nine seats.

The Tories had a mixed week, losing two seats to Reform and gaining two elsewhere, including a Reform defence...

Reform had been defending their third seat in as many weeks, following several resignations within just days or weeks of being elected in May.  They have now lost all three, primarily because the electorate doesn't appreciate being asked to vote twice in a matter of months.  They tumbled to third place in Staffordshire, where the Tories sailed into first for an easy win.

NOTE:  The Denbighshire hold for the Conservatives was previously a multi-seat contest in which the Green Party won the first seat and the Tories second.

St Martin's, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 1,057 (44.6%) New

Lab: 833 (35.1%) -3.2%

Con: 320 (13.5%) -7.1%

Grn: 82 (3.4%) -8.9%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -7.8%

TUS: 26 (1.1%) -6.3%

SDP: 13 (0.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 303 (53.7%) New

Con: 158 (28.0%) -40.7%

Lab: 71 (12.6%) -18.7%

Grn: 32 (5.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Stone House, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 475 (45.2%) New

Lab: 299 (28.4%) -12.8%

Con: 190 (18.1%) -31.4%

Grn: 87 (8.3%) -1.0%

Ref GAIN from Con

Prestatyn Central, Denbighshire County Council

Con: 230 (21.7%) -1.8%

Ind: 223 (21.1%) New

Ref: 195 (18.4%) New

Pld: 152 (14.3%) New

Grn: 144 (13.6%) -35.4%

Lab: 95 (9.0%) -14.5%

LDm: 19 (1.8%) New

Con HOLD

Market Harborough-Logan, Harborough District Council

Con: 410 (31.3%) +4.1%

LDm: 355 (27.1%) -19.8%

Grn: 290 (22.2%) +14.5%

Ref: 190 (14.1%) New

Lab: 44 (3.4%) -9.1%

Ind: 10 (0.7%) -4.8%

CPB: 9 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Sefton Park, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 468 (49.8%) -7.0%

Lab: 211 (22.4%) -11.1%

LDm: 193 (20.5%) +15.4%

Ref: 54 (5.7%) New

Con: 14 (1.5%) -3.0%

Grn HOLD

Baglan, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Lab: 708 (37.5%) -16.8%

Ind: 532 (28.2%) New

Ref: 447 (23.7%) New

Pld: 149 (7.9%) New

Con: 19 (1.0%) -14.1%

Grn: 18 (1.0%) New

LDm: 13 (0.7%) New

Lab HOLD

Pontypridd Town, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 540 (51.6%) -2.2%

Ref: 253 (24.2%) New

Lab: 203 (19.4%) -16.8%

Con: 27 (2.6%) -7.3%

Grn: 23 (2.2%) New

Pld HOLD

Eccleshall & Gnosall, Staffordshire County Council

Con: 1,689 (44.4%) +10.1%

Grn: 1,037 (27.3%) +8.2%

Ref: 938 (24.7%) -10.3%

Lab: 140 (3.7%) -3.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

CPB = Communist Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 26.06.25

A whopping ten by-elections were held this week, from Edinburgh in the north to Sussex in the south.  Labour were defending half the seats and finished the day on just one, a hold in Stevenage.  Labour's vote share was down in every single seat, from a marginal decrease of 1.7 per cent in Edinburgh to a crushing 34.3 per cent in Chorley, Lancs.

Reform continued their good form, with gains in Basildon and Rossendale from local independents and also taking a Labour seat in Sheffield.  In all three seats they came from nowhere to win first time round.

The other Labour losses came at the hands of the Greens in London, Conservatives in Chorley and Lib Dems in Edinburgh.  Labour enjoyed a narrow lead in Edinburgh on the first round, but eventually lost out to the Lib Dems thanks to Scotland's single transferable vote system.

Wickford Park, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 922 (40.6%) New

Con: 840 (37.0%) +6.1%

LDm: 171 (7.5%) -6.8%

Ind: 148 (6.5%) -25.4%

Lab: 146 (6.4%) -16.4%

Grn: 43 (1.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Buckshaw & Whittle, Chorley Borough Council

Con: 576 (35.5%) +3.2%

Ref: 530 (32.7%) New

Lab: 412 (25.4%) -34.3%

Grn: 103 (6.4%) -1.6%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart, Edinburgh City Council

(first preferences)

Lab: 1,293 (20.8%) -1.7%

LDm: 1,269 (20.4%) +13.3%

Grn: 1,133 (18.2%) -1.7%

SNP: 905 (14.5%) -8.2%

Con: 857 (13.8%) -12.8%

Ref: 489 (7.9%) New

Ind: 111 (1.8%) New

Ind: 39 (0.6%) New

Ind: 36 (0.6%) New

SFP: 34 (0.5%) -0.2%

SLP: 25 (0.4%) -0.1%

Ind: 25 (0.4%) New

Ind: 9 (0.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 13)

Shooters Hill, Greenwich London Borough Council

Grn: 869 (34.6%) +19.5%

Lab: 756 (30.1%) -29.1%

Ref: 402 (16.0%) +13.2%

Con: 288 (11.5%) -2.4%

LDm: 128 (5.1%) -3.6%

Ind: 57 (2.3%) New

Ind: 9 (0.4%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Crediton Lawrence, Mid Devon District Council

LDm: 540 (64.9%) +12.8%

Ref: 226 (27.2%) New

Lab: 66 (7.9%) -18.3%

LDm HOLD

Whitworth, Rossendale Borough Council

Ref: 733 (47.5%) New

Con: 449 (29.1%) -0.7%

Lab: 251 (16.3%) -4.8%

Grn: 110 (7.1%) -4.0%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Catsfield & Crowhurst, Rother District Council

LDm: 267 (36.6%) -11.9%

Ref: 200 (27.4%) New

Con: 162 (22.2%) -10.9%

Lab: 101 (13.8%) -4.7%

LDm HOLD

Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Sheffield City Council

Ref: 1,789 (32.9%) New

LDm: 1,595 (29.3%) +12.1%

Lab: 1,324 (24.4%) -25.2%

Con: 332 (6.1%) -21.6%

Grn: 294 (5.4%) -7.1%

Yrk: 58 (1.1%) New

TUS: 43 (0.8%) -1.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Great Wyrley Landywood, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 358 (48.7%) +9.1%

Ref: 292 (39.7%) New

Lab: 55 (7.5%) -30.3%

LDm: 30 (4.1%) New

Con HOLD

Bedwell, Stevenage Borough Council

Lab: 506 (43.2%) -2.5%

Ref: 404 (34.5%) New

Con: 105 (9.0%) -9.9%

Grn: 79 (6.7%) -7.8%

LDm: 78 (6.7%) -8.6%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

Yrk = Yorkshire

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

BY-ELECTIONS 05.06.25

It was a busy Thursday this week, with a major by-election north of the border, plus eight council by-elections south of the border.

In Hamilton there was an MSP vacancy following the death of the SNP incumbent.  Usually such elections are a walkover for the defending party, but the declining popularity of the SNP saw the party lose to Labour and narrowly avoid a third place finish.  The SNP had been defending a 4,582 majority.  

Once again, Reform UK came from nowhere to push the main parties in a tight three-way contest.  Reform also enjoyed a significant swing from the SNP, in line with recent polling that suggested even some pro-independence voters were considering a vote for Reform.  We live in interesting times.

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, Scottish Parliament

(first past the post)

Lab: 8,559 (31.5%) -2.0%

SNP: 7,957 (29.4%) -16.8%

Ref: 7,088 (26.2%) New

Con: 1,621 (6.0%) -11.5%

Grn: 695 (2.6%) New

LDm: 533 (2.0%) -0.8%

SSP: 278 (1.0%) New

SFP: 219 (0.8%) New

Ind: 109 (0.4%) New

UKIP: 50 (0.2%) New

Lab GAIN from SNP

While Labour will be cock-a-hoop with the Holyrood result, the story further south was dismal.  They lost all three seats they were defending to Reform.  The Labour vote share was down in every single ward, ranging from a marginal 0.2 per cent to a whopping 50.5 per cent.

Reform also gained a seat from the Conservatives, while it was also a good night for the Lib Dems who held two and gained two, both from the Tories.

Somercotes, Amber Valley Borough Council

Ref: 396 (45.3%) New

Lab: 346 (39.6%) -27.0%

Con: 53 (6.1%) -15.1%

LDm: 48 (5.5%) -1.1%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) -3.3%

Ind: 11 (1.3%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Fairstead, Borough Council of King's Lynn and West Norfolk

Ref: 289 (39.1%) New

LDm: 275 (37.2%) New

Lab: 118 (16.0%) -29.7%

Grn: 36 (4.9%) -16.9%

Ind: 21 (2.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

North Lynn, Borough Council of King's Lynn and West Norfolk

Ref: 278 (49.6%) New

LDm: 123 (22.0%) New

Lab: 107 (19.1%) -50.5%

Grn: 52 (9.3%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Frinton, Tendring District Council

Ref: 1,222 (57.2%) New

Con: 577 (27.0%) -15.0%

Lab: 168 (7.9%) -7.0%

Grn: 93 (4.3%) -8.0%

LDm: 78 (3.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Burgess Hill North, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 1,088 (40.9%) n/c

Ref: 707 (26.6%) New

Con: 618 (23.3%) -14.9%

Grn: 153 (5.8%) -5.4%

Lab: 92 (4.7%) -5.0%

LDm HOLD

Hassocks & Burgess Hill South, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 1,694 (55.3%) -6.6%

Ref: 762 (24.9%) New

Con: 310 (10.1%) -15.9%

Grn: 175 (5.7%) New

Lab: 123 (4.0%) -8.1%

LDm HOLD

St Leonard's Forest, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 644 (32.5%) +2.2%

Ref: 584 (29.5%) New

Con: 401 (20.2%) -34.3%

Grn: 259 (13.1%) New

Lab: 94 (4.7%) -10.5%

LDm GAIN from Con

Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, Wokingham Borough Council

LDm: 1,028 (31.2%) +3.2%

Lab: 793 (24.1%) -0.2%

Con: 788 (23.9%) -4.2%

Ref: 486 (14.8%) New

Grn: 189 (5.5%) -6.2%

TUS: 17 (0.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SSP = Scottish Socialist Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent