COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.07.26

Five council seats were filled this week - three Tory defences across the south of England and a pair of Reform defences in Essex.  With Karl out of action, possibly for some time, head-to-head forecasts are on hold.

Labour contested four of the five seats, with all eyes on any signs of a 'Burnham bounce'.  The headline results will undoubtedly be two Labour gains from Reform, something unheard of during Starmer's reign.  However, those results were skewed by the circumstances surrounding the departure of the incumbents.  Elsewhere, there was nothing for Labour to crow about.  They suffered an almost double digit dip in vote share in Kent, as Reform came from nowhere to push them down from third to fourth.  They were new entries in Gloucestershire, but finished a distant fourth, while fellow newcomers Reform garnered almost three times as many votes.

Exmouth Brixington, East Devon District Council

Con: 537 (35.2%) -2.1%

LDm: 450 (29.5%) -3.1%

Ref: 439 (28.7%) New

Grn: 101 (6.6%) -2.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, for reasons that she did not make public.  The Conservatives won all three seats in this ward in 2023 and held one of them in a by-election the following year, albeit with a reduced majority.  They managed to increase their majority slightly this time, as the Lib Dems slipped further behind.  Labour, who finished third previously with 339 votes, dropped out this time.  Reform were the only party that benefited from Labour's absence.

Cuxton, Halling & Riverside, Medway Council

Ref: 838 (35.7%) New

Con: 726 (30.9%) -12.9%

Grn: 482 (20.5%) -11.4%

Lab: 269 (11.4%) -9.1%

LDm: 35 (1.5%) -2.3%

Ref GAIN from Con

Triggered by the death of the 74-year-old Conservative incumbent.  He had served as a councillor for more than 30 years, but had reportedly been suffering from vascular dementia for some time.  This begs the question as to why he did not stand down earlier.  He and his Tory colleague won both seats in this ward in 2023, a set of elections that ended 20 years of Conservative control in Medway.  Labour required a significant Burnham bounce in order to add this seat to their ruling majority, but in fact they slumped from third to fourth as all the parties ceded vote share to Reform.  A stunning gain from scatch for Farage's party.

Longwell Green, South Gloucestershire Council

Con: 951 (37.3%) -11.2%

Ref: 698 (27.4%) New

LDm: 511 (20.0%) -10.4%

Lab: 246 (9.7%) New

Grn: 143 (5.6%) New

Con HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, who quit his role in order to join the Royal Navy.  The Tories won both seats here in 2023, a contest in which they went up against only two Lib Dems and an independent.  The independent received more than 600 votes, but did not stand this time.  Of the three new entries, Reform topped the pile, with an underwhelming result for Labour.

Grays Riverside, Thurrock Council

Lab: 389 (30.2%) +3.8%

Ref: 362 (28.1%) -5.1%

Grn: 354 (27.5%) -1.9%

Con: 182 (14.1%) +3.1%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The first of an Essex double bill triggered by Reform councillors standing down just two weeks after being elected on May 7.  The newly elected Riverside candidate said he needed to focus on supporting a family member with a serious illness.  It must have been a sudden illness, either that or he didn't expect to win.  Reform swept to power in Thurrock on May 7, taking all but four of the council's 49 seats.  Labour went from controlling the council with 26 seats, to just two seats.  They managed to double that tally on Thursday, thanks to a poor show by Reform.  In Riverside, Labour sought to capitalise on historic social media posts by the defending Reform candidate.  These posts dated back more than 12 years and were mostly of a misogynistic nature, alongside the use of a racial slur and some anti-disabled comments.  It's difficult to present this result as evidence of a 'Burnham bounce'.

Grays Town, Thurrock Council

Lab: 673 (37.0%) +5.3%

Ref: 491 (27.0%) -7.8%

Ind: 235 (13.0%) New

Con: 224 (12.3%) +1.3%

Grn: 160 (8.8%) -7.3%

LDm: 34 (1.9%) -4.5%

Lab GAIN from Ref

The newly elected Reform councillor stood down after May 7, citing 'a change in personal circumstances'.  With just a fortnight having passed, those circumstances must have changed pretty damn quick!  As with the Riverside vacancy (see above), Reform chose one of its four unsuccessful candidates from May 7 in order to defend the seat.  He failed to do so, with Labour climbing from second place to take an unlikely gain.  Perhaps Reform activists had been diverted to Clacton during the campaign, or perhaps this really was a Burnham bounce.  Multiple factors were at play in the two Thurrock seats, not least an electorate unhappy with being asked to vote again so soon due to poor candidate vetting.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.07.26

Twelve seats were up for grabs on Thursday - four Conservative defences, two each for Labour and the Lib Dems, one each for Plaid Cymru and a local independent group, plus two free-for-alls.

Labour only contested eight seats this week and the apparent bounce they enjoyed last week on the back of Starmer's resignation was muted at best.  They collected three wooden spoons, which included tallies of just 14 votes in the Cotswolds and 15 votes in mid-Wales.  Their vote share was mostly down, they lost a seat to Reform in Leicestershire and only just held them off for a narrow hold in Shropshire.

Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 741 (36.5%) -10.0%

Ref: 465 (22.9%) New

Con: 431 (21.3%) -20.0%

Ind: 150 (7.4%) New

Ind: 132 (6.5%) New

LDm: 56 (2.8%) -9.4%

SFP: 54 (2.7%) New

SNP GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)

Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent, who had been serving as an independent since leaving the Conservatives a year after he was elected in 2022.  The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats.  Labour and the Greens remain absent from this ward, which helped the SNP to a relatively easy gain, despite a dip in vote share attributable to multiple newcomers in Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents.  One of the independents was ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.  He couldn't even beat the other independent and finished fifth on first preferences.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,186 (50.0%) +10.8%

Ref: 541 (22.8%) -2.8%

Lab: 343 (14.5%) +3.4%

Grn: 189 (8.0%) -4.1%

Con: 71 (3.0%) -2.3%

LDm: 27 (1.1%) -0.4%

Ind: 13 (0.5%) New

Ind HOLD

An easy defence for local independent group the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents.  The incumbent had been elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent.  He resigned from the council in May.

Karl - Ind HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind HOLD ✔

Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Ind: 1,365 (35.7%) New

Con: 974 (25.5%) +3.7%

Ref: 778 (20.3%) New

Lab: 564 (14.7%) -5.8%

LDm: 142 (3.7%) -11.9%

Ind GAIN from Con

Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'.  He was elected in 2023, having finished third and taking the third and final available seat.  Independent candidates have finished in first place here since 2019 and that remained the case on Thursday, with the Conservatives closing on them slightly, despite an impressive new entry from Reform.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✔

St Michael's, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 344 (58.4%) -10.0%

Con: 112 (19.0%) -12.5%

Ref: 91 (15.4%) New

Grn: 27 (4.6%) New

Lab: 15 (2.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Three new entries took votes away from the only parties that contested this seat in 2023, but it was a routine hold for the Lib Dems nonetheless.  A change of career led to the resignation of their incumbent, who had a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age.  He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years.  He simultaneously stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also held on Thursday (see Cirencester Park below).

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council

Con: 928 (37.9%) -25.0%

Ref: 823 (33.6%) New

LDm: 629 (25.7%) -11.4%

Grn: 68 (7.8%) +2.8%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s.  He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems.  The victorious candidate this time was the deceased's elderly widow, who finished comfortably ahead of second placed Reform despite a significant swing to the newcomers.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 1,369 (58.7%) +6.6%

Con: 429 (18.4%) +2.9%

Ref: 366 (15.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 111 (4.8%0 -1.2%

Lab: 59 (2.5%) -2.6%

LDm HOLD

The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously.  He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025 and his successor held with an expanded share of the vote.  Another wooden spoon for Labour.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council

Ref: 403 (28.2%) +21.5%

Con: 386 (27.0%) +4.5%

Lab: 271 (19.0%) -13.4%

LDm: 270 (18.9%) -11.6%

Grn: 97 (6.8%) -0.9%

Ref GAIN from Lab

This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79, which had a huge impact on the council.  His passing meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader.  The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration.  With Labour losing this seat to Reform, the finely balanced numbers remain in the Tories' favour and they can continue with their own minority administration.  All three of the rainbow parties saw their vote share take a dip here, with Labour plummeting to third.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Glantwymyn, Powys County Council

Pld: 513 (81.8%) -18.2%

Ref: 63 (10.0%) New

Con: 28 (4.5%) New

LDm: 23 (3.7%) New

Pld HOLD

The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7.  Plaid were elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022 and it was a routine hold for them on Thursday, despite the presence of three new entries.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council

Ref: 359 (41.6%) New

LDm: 226 (26.2%) -20.1%

Con: 210 (24.3%) New

Ind: 51 (5.9%) New

Grn: 18 (2.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

A nice result for Reform in rural Wales, turning a defection into a gain.  The incumbent vacated the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen.  She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election.  By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had left Abolish and was elected as an independent.  Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd.  Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council

LDm: 297 (39.7%) -1.1%

Ref: 259 (34.6%) New

Pld: 96 (12.8%) New

Con: 68 (9.1%) -50.2%

Grn: 15 (2.0%) New

Lab: 14 (1.9%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK.  Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025.  He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper was much more crowded on Thursday.  The Tories ended up slumping to fourth, while Reform went straight in at second and lost out by just 38 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 590 (42.9%) -32.2% Ref: 569 (41.4%) New Con: 104 (7.6%) -10.3% Grn: 76 (5.5%) New LDm: 35 (2.5%) -4.4%

Lab HOLD

A narrow 21 vote hold for Labour as they saw their majority crumble with a colossal swing to Reform.  The incumbent Labour councillor has been the town's MP for the last two years, but unlike Scotland and Wales - where Holyrood and Senedd members are forced to relinquish council roles - there is no such mechanism for Westminster MPs.  He only stood down from the council following his recent appointment as a government whip, and even then only after being 'advised' to do so.  His wife continues to serve as a councillor for the same ward.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council

Ref: 505 (42.7%) New Lab: 362 (30.6%) +3.4% Pld: 190 (16.1%) -1.6% Con: 58 (4.9%) New Grn: 49 (4.1%) -6.8%

LDm: 18 (1.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK.  And again, the new MS was never elected as a Reform councillor.  The journeyman was initially elected in 2017 as an independent, joined the Conservatives a year later and then quit the party the following year.  He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year.  Regardless of the incumbent's back and forth, Reform turned this contest into an impressive gain at the first time of asking.  No independents stood this time, while Labour selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.  Worrying that he finished a strong second.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Karl led Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from the 54 seats contested since May 7.  Richey has managed to claw a point back, correctly predicting nine results against Karl's eight and moving back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.03.26

Five seats were contested on Thursday, with this week's round being very much about the Lib Dems.  The party were defending three seats, all of which became vacant after the incumbents resigned.  Despite the resignations, we predicted three holds for the party.  Well, two out of three's not bad as the song goes.

The Lib Dems held in Cumbria and the Cotswolds, the latter featuring a particularly humiliating result for Labour who finished last with just seven votes.  Their third seat went to the Greens, who surged to victory in a middle class Liverpool suburb.  However, it was a mixed week for the new insurgents on the left.  

The swanky surroundings of Abingdon in Oxfordshire was the scene of another battle between the Lib Dems and Greens.  The Greens had won this seat previously when two seats were up for grabs, with the Lib Dems narrowly topping the poll.  The Greens would have fancied this one with all the media hype surrounding them.  However, as we predicted, the Lib Dems took the seat.  The Greens did not compete much beyond the two woke middle class seats, with finishes of 4/5, 4/7 and 3/4.

Finally, a local independent group slipped to defeat in Lincolnshire, a Reform gain as we predicted.  

Following last week's atrocious round of predictions - one out of five - we have returned to form this week with a more respectable four out of five.  Trumpet blown!

The Beeches, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 390 (52.7%) -3.0%

Ref: 168 (22.7%) New

Con: 122 (16.5%) -17.9%

Grn: 53 (7.2%) -3.0%

Lab: 7 (0.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Aigburth, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 782 (45.0%) +31.1%

LDm: 637 (36.7%) -13.6%

Lab: 177 (10.2%) -21.7%

Ref: 121 (7.0%) New

Ind: 12 (0.7%) New

Con: 8 (0.5%) -1.8%

Grn GAIN from LDm

Sleaford Westholme, North Kesteven District Council

Ref: 243 (45.1%) New

Ind: 87 (16.1%) -13.4%

Con: 81 (15.0%) New

Grn: 55 (10.2%) New

Ind: 49 (9.1%) -20.2%

Ind: 12 (2.2%) New

LDm: 12 (2.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Abingdon Abbey Northcourt, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 647 (43.7%) +3.3%

Grn: 480 (32.5%) -2.1%

Ref: 204 (13.8%) New

Con: 101 (6.8%) -7.3%

Lab: 47 (3.2%) -7.7%

LDm GAIN from Grn

Penrith South, Westmorland and Furness Council

LDm: 749 (43.1%) -1.5%

Ref: 588 (33.9%) New

Grn: 225 (13.0%) +2.6%

Con: 174 (10.0%) -15.5%

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.03.26

Five council seats were up for grabs this week, with one Labour defence taking place in Staffordshire.  That Tamworth by-election was a tough one to call, with both Reform and the Greens debuting in a historically Tory ward that was gained by Labour three years ago.  We said Labour wouldn't hold and they finished last, with the insurgent parties taking the top two spots.  We predicted a rare Tory gain here, but it was an impressive Reform gain, topping the poll with more than twice the number of votes as the second placed Greens.

Over in Essex, Reform narrowly gained a second seat at the hands of an independent group affiliated with the Greens.  The margin was 37 votes, but a win's a win.  We predicted an Independent hold.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Reform on the night, with a worrying defeat for the party in County Durham - a county council they control.  We thought Reform had got enough to hold, but astonishingly Labour stormed back in one of their old northern strongholds.  It wasn't even close as Reform slumped to second and Labour gained their first council seat since May 2025.  The result was the first to declare on the night, which led some morons on social media to celebrate a tad early.  They went quiet after the party gained two seats elsewhere, and overall the narrative around a burst bubble was opened up to ridicule - Reform finished either first or second in all five available seats.

As we expected, it was a routine hold for the Greens in their West Country stamping ground, while a free-for-all vacancy went to the Conservatives in Kent (not Reform as we predicted).

One out of five correct this week, it's just a blip!

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ref: 554 (30.7%) New

Ind: 517 (28.7%) -26.3%

Lab: 366 (20.3%) +4.4%

Con: 311 (17.2%) -12.6%

LDm: 55 (3.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Murton, Durham County Council

Lab: 1,004 (50.6%) +17.6%

Ref: 786 (39.6%) -4.5%

Grn: 95 (4.8%) New

Con: 61 (3.1%) -2.0%

LDm: 38 (1.9%) -2.3%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Hextable. Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 600 (38.9%) +19.3%

Ref: 406 (26.3%) New

LDm: 367 (23.8%) New

Ind: 108 (7.0%) New

Grn: 62 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Thrupp, Stroud District Council

Grn: 540 (67.5%) +3.1%

Ref: 132 (16.5%) New

Con: 58 (7.3%) -10.3%

Lab: 48 (5.8%) -12.3%

LDm: 22 (2.8%) New

UKIP: 2 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Spital, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 719 (44.6%) New

Grn: 337 (20.4%) New

Con: 319 (19.4%) -18.9%

Lab: 273 (16.6%) -23.4%

Ref GAIN from Lab

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.01.26

Five seats were contested on Thursday, with two additional by-elections held in Derbyshire on Tuesday.  In those earlier elections, the Greens finally got a result they could truly celebrate, with an impressive gain from Reform.  Tuesday was a mixed evening for Reform, with the party gaining from Labour in the other seat.  These were also the first electoral outings for Ben Habib's Advance UK, with mixed results.  They did not have a particularly damaging effect on Reform in either seat, but this could change over time.

Labour lost to Reform again on Thursday, losing a seat in north Wales.  Their vote share was down across the board, finishing last in Norfolk and pushed into distant third by Reform in an embarrassing result north of the border.

Despite their gain on Tuesday, the Greens failed to impress elsewhere and their vote share was down in the four other seats the party contested.  This included two wooden spoons that included a particularly disastrous result in which they lost a seat to the Lib Dems.

It was a better week for the Tories, despite the notion of their looming demise gaining traction.  They managed to hold onto two seats, in spite of a decreased vote share in both.  Straws clutched.

Willaston & Thornton, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Con: 997 (53.8%) -7.1%

Lab: 318 (17.2%) -9.3%

Ref: 299 (16.1%) New

LDm: 132 (7.1%) +2.4%

Grn: 107 (5.8%) -2.2%

Con HOLD

The Rissingtons, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 321 (37.5%) New

Con: 268 (31.3%) -11.5%

Ref: 221 (25.8%) New

Grn: 47 (5.5%) -51.7%

LDm GAIN from Grn

Glenrothes West & Kinglassie, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,167 (44.3%) -5.3%

Ref: 725 (27.5%) New

Lab: 413 (15.7%) -16.8%

Con: 182 (6.9%) -4.7%

LDm: 125 (4.7%) +0.9%

SFP: 25 (0.9%) New

SNP HOLD

Leeswood, Flintshire County Council

Ref: 160 (22.3%) New

Ind: 138 (19.2%) -5.6%

Ind: 135 (18.8%) +4.3%

Lab: 87 (12.1%) -48.5%

Ind: 79 (11.0%) New

LDm: 68 (9.5%) New

Con: 34 (4.7%) New

Ind: 17 (2.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Central Wymondham, South Norfolk District Council

Con: 545 (31.1%) -4.6%

Grn: 454 (25.9%) -3.7%

Ref: 363 (20.7%) +15.1%

LDm: 211 (12.0%) New

Lab: 182 (10.4%) -18.8%

Con HOLD

The following contests were held on Tuesday.

Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar, Amber Valley Borough Council

Ref: 595 (45.6%) +24.1%

Lab: 249 (19.1%) -20.8%

Adv: 161 (12.3%) New

Con: 130 (10.0%) -15.3%

Grn: 77 (5.9%) -5.5%

Ind: 50 (3.8%) New

LDm: 42 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Horsley, Derbyshire County Council

Grn: 1,341 (43.6%) +16.7%

Ref: 1,091 (35.5%) +0.6%

Con: 426 (13.9%) -8.9%

Lab: 116 (3.8%) -6.5%

Adv: 57 (1.9%) New

LDm: 43 (1.4%) -2.0%

Grn GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

Adv = Advance UK

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.07.25

Ten seats were up for election this week, all in England.  Labour were defending two seats and lost both to Reform, who also gained a seat from independents in Gloucestershire.  Labour's vote share was down in all seven seats it contested, ranging from a 4.6 per cent decrease in Surrey, to 27.8 per cent in Nottinghamshire.  The party finished last in two seats.

Elsewhere, there was no change as the Lib Dems held all four of its seats and the Greens successfully defended a seat in East Sussex, fending off Reform by 50 votes.

Ranskill, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 323 (52.7%) New

Lab: 89 (15.7%) -27.8%

Con: 66 (14.5%) -42.0%

Ind: 44 (7.2%) New

LDm: 40 (6.5%) New

Grn: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Ref: 595 (48.7%) +32.5%

Lab: 475 (38.8%) -23.7%

Grn: 62 (5.1%) New

Con: 59 (4.8%) -16.6%

LDm: 32 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Isle of Wight Council

Ind: 475 (48.1%) New

Ref: 225 (22.9%) New

Con: 153 (15.6%) -4.7%

LDm: 53 (5.4%) New

Vec: 46 (4.7%) New

Lab: 33 (3.4%) -8.9%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Bookham East & Eastwick Park, Mole Valley District Council

LDm: 1,056 (56.0%) -6.6%

Ref: 387 (20.5%) New

Con: 386 (20.5%) -10.1%

Grn: 56 (3.0%) -1.5%

LDm HOLD

Keppel, Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,160 (40.3%) New

Ind: 801 (27.8%) -1.9%

Lab: 558 (19.4%) -13.4%

Con: 105 (3.6%) -6.9%

Yrk: 100 (3.5%) -7.8%

LDm: 80 (2.8%) -1.4%

Grn: 77 (2.7%) -7.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Woking South, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,939 (63.8%) +5.8%

Ref: 584 (19.2%) New

Con: 291 (9.6%) -16.0%

Grn: 134 (4.4%) -2.5%

Lab: 91 (3.0%) -4.6%

LDm HOLD

Northway, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ref: 374 (41.4%) New

LDm: 279 (30.9%) +7.0%

Con: 116 (12.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 91 (10.1%) New

Lab: 44 (4.9%) -15.8%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Botley & Sunningwell, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 732 (71.5%) +7.9%

Con: 162 (15.8%) -1.8%

Grn: 130 (12.7%) +11.2%

LDm HOLD

Horam & Punnetts Town, Wealden District Council

Grn: 611 (35.9%) -29.0%

Ref: 561 (32.9%) New

Con: 336 (20.2%) -15.0%

Ind: 188 (11.0%) New

Grn HOLD

Hoe Valley, Woking Borough Council

LDm: 1,118 (63.3%) -8.1%

Ref: 379 (21.1%) New

Con: 130 (7.2%) -9.0%

Lab: 83 (3.8%) -8.6%

Grn: 69 (4.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Vec = Vectis

Yrk = Yorkshire

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.06.25

Seven council seats are up for grabs this week, with polling day falling on a Wednesday in Gloucestershire.  The other four contests took place on the traditional Thursday, including double vacancies in both Northamptonshire and Nottinghamshire.

Labour were defending two seats this week, losing both of them.  They lost to the Greens in Gloucestershire, slumping to a humiliating fourth place with a big swing to Reform.  They also lost a seat to Reform in Nottinghamshire, where two seats had been vacant.

Elsewhere, Reform continued to perform exceptionally well, taking seats from an independent group in Leeds and the other Nottinghamshire seat from the Tories.  They would probably have also won two new seats in Northamptonshire, except for some bizarre reason they fielded too many candidates.  Three Reform candidates appeared on the ballot paper, but there were only two vacancies!

Severn, Stroud District Council

(held on Wednesday)

Grn: 439 (27.8%) +10.0%

Con: 425 (26.9%) -6.6%

Ref: 421 (26.7%) New

Lab: 177 (11.2%) -21.3%

LDm: 112 (7.1%) -9.1%

UKIP: 5 (0.3%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Morley South, Leeds City Council

Ref: 2,119 (36.8%) +29.8%

Ind: 1,415  (25.2%) -12.9%

LDm: 1,009 (17,5%) +15.9%

Lab: 634 (11.0%) -20.3%

Grn: 314 (5.4%) -3.5%

Con: 230 (4.0%) -5.6%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden, Mid Suffolk District Council

Grn: 901 (64.1%) -11.4%

Con: 444 (31.6%) +7.1%

LDm: 61 (4.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Higham Ferrers, North Northamptonshire Council

(two seats, new boundaries)

Ref: 656, 556 & 335 (27.5%)

Con: 559 & 511 (23.4%)

Grn: 529 & 449 (22.2%)

Lab: 264 & 256 (11.1%)

Ind: 215 & 187 (9.0%)

LDm: 165 (6.9%)

Ref WIN x 1

Con WIN x 1

Mansfield North, Nottinghamshire County Council

(two seats)

Ref: 3,077 & 2,998 (59.3%) +57.5%

Lab: 1,259 & 1,211 (24.3%) -5.7%

Con: 500 & 426 (9.6%) -37.7%

Grn: 292 (5.6%) +2.8%

TUS: 62 & 39 (1.2%) +0.4%

Ref GAIN x 2 (1 from Con, 1 from Lab)

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

RESPITE FOR REFORM?

Farage and Yusuf unveil almost 30 new councillors

The very public mudslinging that has wracked Reform UK in recent weeks won't go away, but Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf hoped to get the fledgling party back on track with a major announcement on Monday.  The pair announced 29 council defections to Reform from other parties or having previously been independents or members of local residents' groups.  26 of the new members were in attendance at the press conference.

Some of the defections actually occurred up to a month ago, such as the defections of Conservatives Kirk Harrison, Joanne Monk and Stephen Reed, who announced their defections weeks ago.  Clearly, Monday's event was intended as a distraction from the rumblings within.

Of the defections, 15 were Conservatives, 12 were independents or from local residents' groups (two of which had previously been Conservatives) and one each came from Labour and the Lib Dems.  Most of the new Reformers are county councillors.

These are the new Reform councillors that Farage named...

• Cllr Heather Asker, Uttlesford District Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Atkinson, Ribble Valley Borough Council (was Conservative and leader of the council)
• Cllr Bill Barrett, Ashford Borough Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Felix Bloomfield, Oxfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Mandy Clare, Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council (was Labour, reportedly left in opposition to trans ideology)
• Cllr Stuart Davies, North Somerset Council (was independent)
• Cllr Emma Ellison, Blackpool Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Paul Ellison, Wyre Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Robert Gibson, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Kirk Harrison, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Manzur Hasan, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Cathy Hunt, Durham County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Paul Irwin, Buckinghamshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Claire Jonson-Wood, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Reg Kain, Cheshire East Council (was Liberal Democrat)
• Cllr Edward Kirk, Wiltshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Karl Lewis, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Graham McAndrew, Hertfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Iain McIntosh, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Joanne Monk, Worcestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Geoff Morgan, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Jan O'Hara, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Christine Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Richard Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Reed, North East Derbyshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Dirk Ross, Kent County Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Matthew Salter, Lancashire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Vernon Smith, Gloucestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Thomas Sneath, South Holland District Council (was independent)

A further defection was announced in the form of Julian Kirk, who has resigned his seat on Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council in protest at delayed local elections.  He was an independent, having previously been a Conservative councillor.

These announcements came just as another existing Reform councillor quit the party, a member of East Riding Yorkshire Council.  Still, a big net gain for Farage with the news of such a large influx.

There was quite possibly more important news for Reform on Monday.  Convict MP Mike Amesbury has officially stood down as the member for Runcorn and Helsby, triggering the by-election we've all been waiting for.  This will be a huge indicator of Reform's electoral prowess and ability to shake off its recent troubles.  They remain odds on favourites with the bookies to win the Cheshire seat and those odds have now stabilised, having previously been drifting a little in response to the infighting.

There is no date for the Runcorn by-election as yet.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.01.25

Council by-elections are back, but it's a slow start with just a couple of Lib Dem defences in the West Country to report.  It was 50 per cent success rate for the Europhiles, with an independent swiping a Somerset seat from them by the margin of just five votes...

Saltford, Bath and North East Somerset Council

Ind: 587 (29.8%) +5.4%

LDm: 583 (29.6%) -10.5%

Con: 375 (19.0%) -1.7%

Ref: 205 (10.4%) New

Grn: 159 (8.1%) +1.4%

Lab: 60 (3.0%) -5.0%

Ind GAIN from LDm

Chesterton, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 296 (48.1%) -15.8%

Ref: 152 (24.7%) New

Con: 106 (17.2%) -7.6%

Lab: 61 (9.9%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 28.11.24

Ten seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with two of those in the Village ward of Barking and Dagenham.  Only one of the ten seats changed hands - a Lib Dem gain from Labour in Sheffield, where Labour were pushed into third by an astonishing first time effort from Reform UK.  Reform were only ten votes behind the victorious Lib Dems.

Labour's vote share was down in all the seats contested, asides from a very marginal increase in Fife.  They held seven of the eight seats they were defending, but on the current trajectory they are heading for an electoral spanking in the next local elections.

Northbury, Barking and Dagenham London Borough Council

Lab: 561 (57.7%) -11.1%

Grn: 161 (16.6%) +2.0%

Ref: 101 (10.4%) New

Con: 100 (10.3%) -6.4%

LDm: 49 (5.0%) New

Lab HOLD

Village, Barking and Dagenham London Borough Council

(Two seats)

Lab: 776

Lab: 774

Con: 580

Con: 571

Grn: 103

Grn: 97

LDm: 70

LDm: 37

Lab HOLD x 2

Haxby & Wigginton, City of York Council

LDm: 1,847 (64.0%) +11.1%

Con: 435 (15.1%) -7.8%

Ref: 325 (11.3%) New

Lab: 203 (7.0%) -7.4%

Grn: 76 (2.6%) -2.6%

LDm HOLD

Jubilee, Enfield London Borough Council

Lab: 853 (39.4%) -13.9%

Con: 691 (31.9%) +8.7%

Ind: 208 (9.6%) New

Grn: 169 (7.8%) -2.4%

Ref: 149 (6.9%) New

LDm: 94 (4.3%) -1.8%

Lab HOLD

West Fife & Coastal Villages, Fife Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 881 (33.2%) +0.7%

SNP: 879 (33.2%) -2.7%

Con: 426 (16.1%) -1.0%

LDm: 227 (8.6%) +1.9%

Grn: 121 (4.6%) +0.4%

Ind: 64 (2.4%) New

SFP: 53 (2.0%) +0.4%

Lab HOLD (elected stage TBC)

Junction, Islington London Borough Council

Lab: 785 (40.4%) -22.0%

Ind: 550 (28.3%) New

Grn: 219 (11.3%) -11.2%

LDm: 156 (8.0%) +0.9%

Con: 113 (5.8%) -2.1%

Ind: 97 (5.0%) New

SPB: 22 (1.1%) New

Lab HOLD

Woodhouse, Sheffield City Council

LDm: 1,018 (33.0%) +26.8%

Ref: 1,008 (32.7%) New

Lab: 650 (21.1%) -36.8%

Con: 168 (5.0%) -9.5%

Grn: 153 (5.4%) -4.5%

TUS: 56 (1.8%) -1.0%

SDP: 33 (1.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

Frampton Cotterell, South Gloucestershire Council

LDm: 1,315 (49.3%) -2.4%

Con: 1,114 (41.7%) +8.1%

Grn: 160 (6.0%) -3.0%

Lab: 80 (3.0%) -2.7%

LDm HOLD

Kilpatrick, West Dunbartonshire Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 725 (42.7%) -13.4%

SNP: 514 (30.3%) -7.7%

Ref: 176 (10.4%) New

Con: 97 (5.7%) -0.2%

Grn: 73 (4.3%) New

LDm: 65 (3.7%) New

SFP: 25 (1.5%) New

CPB: 23 (1.4%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage 6)

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SPB = Socialist Party of Great Britain

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SDP = Social Democratic Party

CPB = Communist Party of Britain

Ind = Independents

BY-ELECTIONS 15.02.24

Labour have struck a double blow to Rishi Sunak with two huge Westminster gains in Thursday's two big by-elections.  In the Gloucestershire seat of Kingswood, Labour required an 11.4 per cent swing and achieved 16.4 per cent.  In Northamptonshire the result was even more impressive.  For victory in Wellingborough, the party required at least 17.9 per cent and they smashed it with a whopping 28.5 per cent.  Election guru Professor John Curtice says the latter was the second biggest swing from Tory to Labour since the Second World War and says the results show the government is in 'deep, deep electoral trouble'.  Keir Starmer 'still looks on course to be Britain's next Prime Minister', he added.

As the Tory vote plummeted, Labour were not the only beneficiaries.  Reform UK came from nowhere in both seats to easily hold onto their deposits.  The Lib Dems lost both of theirs.

The two Labour victories may be short-lived - boundary changes mean both constituencies will disappear at the next election - but even so, these results are a devastating reminder that a Labour government is almost certainly on the way.

Kingswood Parliamentary By-Election

Damien Egan (Lab) 11,176 (44.9%) +11.5%

Sam Bromiley (Con) 8,675 (34.5%) -21.7%

Rupert Lowe (RefUK) 2,578 (10.4%) New

Lorraine Francis (Grn) 1,450 (5.8%) +3.4%

Andrew Brown (LDem) 861 (3.5%) -3.5%

Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 129 (0.5%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Wellingborough Parliamentary By-Election

Gen Kitchen (Lab) 13,844 (45.9%) +19.4%

Helen Harrison (Con) 7,408 (24.6%) -37.6%

Ben Habib (RefUK) 3,919 (13.0%) New

Ana Gunn (LDem) 1,422 (4.7%) -3.2%

Marion Turner-Hawes (Ind) 1,115 (3.7%) New

Will Morris (Grn) 1,020 (3.4%) -0.1%

Kev Watts (Ind) 533 (1.8%) New

Alex Merola (BritF) 477 (1.6%) New

Nick the Flying Brick (Loon) 217 (0.7%) New

Andre Pyne-Bailey (Ind) 172 (0.6%) New

Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (Ind) 18 (0.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday and proceedings largely belonged to the Lib Dems with two strong holds and a gain from Labour.  The Tory vote was down in the three elections it contested, with Labour having mixed results, albeit they gained an independent seat in south Wales.

Tring West & Rural, Dacorum Borough Council

LDem: 899 (62.7%) +12.9%

Con: 303 (21.1%) -3.0%

Grn: 122 (8.5%) -9.6%

Lab: 109 (7.6%) -0.3%

LDem HOLD

Four Marks & Medstead, East Hampshire District Council

LDem: 1,212 (62.2%) +18.9%

Con: 736 (37.8%) -2.3%

LDem HOLD

Avenue, Hull City Council

LDem: 1,186 (45.7%) +4.3%

Lab: 1,029 (39.7%) -8.4%

Grn: 198 (7.6%) n/c

Ind: 139 (5.3%) New

Con: 43 (1.7%) -1.3%

LDem GAIN from Lab

Briton Ferry East, Neath Port Talbot Council

Lab: 287 (52.4%) +8.0%

Ind: 234 (42.7%) -1.9%

Grn: 27 (4.9%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Rhos, Neath Port Talbot Council

Ind: 494 (52.1%) New

Plaid: 242 (25.5%) -29.1%

Lab: 137 (14.5%) -30.9%

LDem: 60 (6.3%) New

Grn: 15 (1.6%) New

Ind GAIN from Plaid

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

RefUK = Reform UK

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

BritF = Britain First

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independent

LABOUR AT THE DOUBLE?

Labour candidates are hoping to succeed outgoing Tory MPs Chris Skidmore (left)
and Peter Bone (right)

Labour cannot now win in Rochdale next week, but they are still odds on favourites to pick up two morale boosting gains from the Conservatives this week.  These imminent Westminster by-elections centre on two shire towns - Kingswood in Gloucestershire and Wellingborough in Northamptonshire.  Labour victories here would be short-lived as both constituencies will cease to exist at the next election thanks to boundary changes.  Kingswood is being abolished altogether and Wellingborough will be redrawn as Wellingborough and Rushden.

The Kingswood constituency will bow out in its fiftieth year, having spent 23 years with a Labour MP (1974-79, 1992-2010) and 27 years with a Tory (1979-1992, 2010-2024).  From 2010 the seat has been represented by Chris Skidmore, a net zero fanatic who wanted to make the ultimate protest statement by resigning before his seat was abolished.  His claim to fame is that he was the minister who signed the government's net zero pledge into law.  That was back in 2019 under the premiership of Theresa May and since then he has become increasingly focused on net zero and so-called 'climate change'.

Skidmore departs the Westminster gravy train with his rattle firmly thrown out of the pram in protest at Rishi Sunak's relaxation of key net zero targets - the PM's 'greatest mistake' according to Skidmore.  The electorate clearly disagree, as we now see Labour too rowing back on their own insane climate pledges.  Is there an election around the corner?

For Labour to win in Kingswood, they require a swing of 11.4 per cent to overturn the Tory majority of 11,220.  There are six candidates in total.

Kingswood Candidates

Sam Bromiley (Con)

Andrew Brown (LDem)

Damien Egan (Lab)

Lorraine Francis (Grn)

Rupert Lowe (RefUK)

Nicholas Wood (UKIP)

The Wellingborough vacancy came about by way of a successful recall petition against its Tory MP Peter Bone.  Since the Recall of MPs Act in 2015, this mechanism has been used five times across the UK, four of which have reached the minimum 10 per cent of signatures required to dismiss the MP in question.  Bone is the second Conservative to be kicked out this way, with 13.2 per cent of his constituents as signatories.

Bone's downfall came after repeated allegations of bullying and sexual misconduct were upheld by an independent body set up specifically to tackle complaints against MPs.  The male complainant contacted the body in 2021 after the issue had been raised with former PMs Cameron and May without success.  The panel recommended that Bone be suspended from the Commons, an outcome that was upheld after appeal.  The suspension triggered the recall process and Bone was stripped of the Tory whip, although he still denies the accusations.

Bone gained the Wellinborough seat from Labour in 2005 and built a solid majority from 2010 onwards, the largest of which was in 2019 and stood at 18,540.  The selection of Bone's lover Helen Harrison as the Tory candidate means that he could still potentially retain the seat by proxy.

At 17.9 per cent, Labour require a bigger swing to win here.  The ballot paper will be a crowded affair, with eleven candidates and a couple of intriguing names.

Wellingborough Candidates

Nick the Flying Brick (Loon)

Ana Gunn (LDem)

Ben Habib (RefUK)

Helen Harrison (Con)

Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (Ind)

Gen Kitchen (Lab)

Alex Merola (BritF)

Will Morris (Grn)

Andre Pyne-Bailey (Ind)

Marion Turner-Hawes (Ind)

Kev Watts (Ind)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.10.22

Five council seats were up for grabs this week and despite overwhelmingly negative media coverage and dreadful polling, it was a good return for the Conservatives.  They not only held their one defence (Gloucester), they gained seats from both Labour and the Greens.

It was a narrow hold for the Tories in Gloucester, where the absence of an independent candidate appeared to help the Lib Dems almost surge to victory.  The winning margin was just 15 votes.

In Epping Forest the Greens were defending a seat they had previously gained in a head-to-head contest against the incumbent Conservatives.  It was a two-way battle again, but on this occasion the Tory candidate triumphed.  The most sensational result of the night came in Leicester where Labour were defending one of their 50 council seats (from 54 in total).  The Conservatives stormed to victory, doubling their existing tally of one council seat.  The Green Party also enjoyed a surge, leaving Labour trailing behind in third.

Labour managed to hold its other two defences, but lost ground to the Liberal Democrats in Stockport where the absence of a Conservative candidate appeared to benefit the Lib Dems.  Interesting to note that of the four seats Labour contested on Thursday, their vote share was down in three of them with the fourth presenting a meagre advance of 0.1 per cent.

Waltham Abbey South West, Epping Forest District Council

Con: 260 (55.2%) +17.2%

Grn: 211 (44.8%) -17.2%

Con GAIN from Grn

Tuffley, Gloucester City Council

Con: 502 (34.9%) -13.5%

LDem: 487 (33.8%) +28.3%

Lab: 451 (31.3%) -2.7%

Con HOLD

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Lab: 450 (50.8%) +0.1%

Ind: 280 (31.6%) +4.7%

Con: 124 (14.0%) -8.5%

LDem: 32 (3.6%) New

Lab HOLD

North Evington, Leicester City Council

Con: 3,441 (49.6%) +32.7%

Grn: 1,790 (25.8%) +20.0%

Lab: 1,563 (22.5%) -49.8%

LDem: 100 (1.4%) -3.5%

TUSC: 45 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Edgeley & Cheadle Heath, Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,172 (52.9%) -19.6%

LDem: 844 (38.1%) +32.1%

Grn: 200 (9.0%) +0.5%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 14.04.22

Four council contests this week and some signs of a further backlash over Partygate.  The Conservatives were defending two seats and lost both - one to Labour and one to the Lib Dems.  In County Durham the situation was far from clear cut as the Tory seat up for grabs had been won from a second place position (there were two seats available).  Labour extended their lead over the Tories and easily took the seat.

In Surrey the Tories were stunned by a Lib Dem surge, aided by the absence of other candidates including Labour.

The other two seats on offer were vacated by independents.  The Lib Dems surged to victory from nowhere in Maldon, while the other seat went to another independent as the Lib Dems tied with the Tories for second place.

Absentees this week were independents across all four seats, Labour in Surrey Heath and Tewkesbury and UKIP in Surrey Heath.

West Auckland, Durham County Council

Lab: 956 (56.3%) +12.2%

Con: 554 (32.6%) -10.2%

Ind: 187 (11.0%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Heybridge West, Maldon District Council

LDem: 269 (44.8%) New

Con: 107 (18.4%) -21.2%

Ind: 93 (16.0%) New

Ind: 72 (12.4%) New

Lab: 49 (8.4%) New

LDem GAIN from Ind

Bisley & West End, Surrey Heath Borough Council

LDem: 1,286 (66.0%) +48.8%

Con: 662 (34.0%) -0.8%

LDem GAIN from Con

Brockworth East, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ind: 346 (69.5%) New

Con: 76 (15.3%) -0.9%

LDem: 76 (15.3%) +2.5%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Ind = Independents

BY-ELECTIONS 03.02.22

The shoo-in to replace the murdered David Amess has been elected in Southend West.  All the main parties stood aside out of respect, leaving Anna Firth to win the seat for the Conservatives.  Firth is originally from Southend and vacated her council seat in Sevenoaks in order to take up office in Westminster.  This was her third attempt at gaining a parliamentary seat, having previously contested Erith and Thamesmead in 2015 and Canterbury in 2019.

Of the smaller parties to contest Southend West, the largest was UKIP, but they finished an embarrassing third place behind a candidate from the 'Psychedelic Movement'.  All the candidates lost their £500 deposit with the exception of Firth.

Southend West

Anna Firth (Con) 12,792 (86.1%) +26.9%

Jason Pilley (Psyc) 512 (3.4%) New

Steve Laws (UKIP) 400 (2.7%) New

Catherine Blaiklock (EngDem) 320 (2.2%) New

Jayda Fransen (Ind) 299 (2.0%) New

Ben Downton (Herit) 236 (1.6%) New

Christopher Anderson (Freedom) 161 (1.1%) New

Graham Moore (EngCon) 86 (0.6%) New

Olga Childs (Ind) 52 (0.3%) New

Con HOLD

There were also six council by-elections on Thursday - two Tory defences, two Labour defences and two Lib Dem defences.  The only seat to change hands was a stunning Lib Dem gain from Labour in Manchester, aided by growing public anger over the highly controversial Greater Manchester Clean Air Zone.  The scheme is due to begin on May 30.

It was a disappointing night all round for Labour with their vote share down in all five seats the party contested.  They very nearly lost to the Conservatives in Leicester, perhaps due in no small part to the campaign organiser having been a certain former MP...

Keith Vaz presided over a near disaster in the Evington ward of Leicester

UKIP did not contest Campden and Vale (Cotswolds) or Spital (Tamworth) this time

Campden & Vale, Cotswold District Council

Con: 1,180 (56.2%) +12.5%

Lib Dem: 920 (43.8%) +18.2%

Con HOLD

Berkhamsted West, Dacorum Borough Council

LDem: 924 (64.1%) +13.9%

Con: 318 (22.1%) -5.6%

Grn: 130 (9.0%) -5.8%

Lab: 69 (4.8%) -2.5%

LDem HOLD

Boxmoor, Dacorum Borough Council

LDem: 1,319 (60.5%) +18.3%

Con: 599 (27.5%) -4.3%

Lab: 171 (7.8%) -6.2%

Grn: 92 (4.2%) -7.8%

LDem HOLD

Evington, Leicester City Council

Lab: 1,557 (38.8%) -15.4%

Con: 1,382 (34.4%) +12.9%

LDem: 830 (20.7%) +12.5%

Grn: 200 (5.0%) -7.1%

ForBrit: 45 (1.1%) New

Lab HOLD

Ancoats & Beswick, Manchester City Council

LDem: 1,113 (53.2%) +31.0%

Lab: 793 (37.9%) -20.6%

Grn: 119 (5.7%) -5.3%

Con: 66 (3.2%) -5.2%

LDem GAIN from Lab

Spital, Tamworth Borough Council

Con: 613 (43.6%) -11.7%

Ind: 482 (34.3%) +16.9%

Lab: 311 (22.1%) -3.0%

Con HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Psyc = Psychedelic Movement

UKIP = UK Independence Party

EngDem = English Democrats

Herit = Heritage

Freedom = Freedom Alliance

EngCon = English Constitution

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

ForBrit = For Britain

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 18.11.21

There were nine by-elections this week across England, including three in the Labour stronghold of Liverpool.  While Labour held all three of those seats with ease, their vote share dipped considerably in each ward.  Labour were defending three seats elsewhere and held two - one in Ribble, Lancashire and another in Manchester.  They lost a seat to the Green Party in Canterbury.

There were no Conservative defences this week, but they sensationally gained a seat from the Lib Dems in Devon where they won by one vote.  In that contest the Lib Dems slipped to third, while a Labour surge fell short of victory by a single vote.

In other action there was a free-for-all in Gloucestershire and a defence for one of Britain's oldest parties.  The independently minded residents of Tewkesbury replaced one independent with another, while the Liberal Party held a seat in Ryedale, North Yorkshire.  The Liberals, as opposed to its descendent party the Liberal Democrats, only holds eight council seats across the UK.  However, it faired far better than the Lib Dems in two of the Liverpool by-elections held on Thursday, finishing second in both.

UKIP did not contest three seats it had previously stood in (Bamber Bridge East, Brockworth East and Bere Ferrer).

Gorrell, Canterbury City Council

Grn: 1,149 (43.9%) +10.3%

Lab: 803 (30.7%) -6.0%

Con: 608 (23.2%) +0.2%

WPB: 58 (2.2%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Anfield, Liverpool City Council

Lab: 604 (55.9%) -11.5%

Lib: 281 (26.0%) +15.0%

LDem: 73 (6.8%) +2.1%

Grn: 72 (6.7%) -0.9%

Con: 42 (3.9%) -1.4%

Ind: 9 (0.8%) -3.3%

Lab HOLD

Clubmoor, Liverpool City Council

Lab: 787 (54.5%) -7.6%

Lib: 324 (22.4%) +3.2%

Ind: 167 (11.6%) New

TUSC: 54 (3.7%) New

Grn: 45 (3.1%) -4.7%

LDem: 34 (2.4%) -3.2%

Con: 33 (2.3%) -3.0%

Lab HOLD

Kirkdale, Liverpool City Council

Lab: 852 (61.7%) -20.5%

Ind: 171 (12.4%) New

Grn: 160 (11.6%) +7.5%

TUSC: 84 (6.1%) +0.2%

Con: 57 (4.1%) +0.1%

LDem: 57 (4.1%) +1.1%

Lab HOLD

Chorlton, Manchester City Council

Lab: 1,581 (52.1%) -4.9%

LDem: 657 (21.7%) +8.9%

Grn: 608 (20.1%) -1.0%

Con: 93 (3.1%) -1.6%

WEP: 66 (2.2%) -1.1%

Ind: 27 (0.9%) New

Lab HOLD

Cropton, Ryedale District Council

Lib: 202 (39.6%) -15.5%

Con: 155 (30.4%) +10.9%

Grn: 121 (23.7%) New

Lab: 32 (6.3%) New

Lib HOLD

Bamber Bridge East, South Ribble Borough Council

Lab: 376 (53.7%) +7.2%

Con: 275 (39.3%) +9.5%

Grn: 49 (7.0%) New

Lab HOLD

Brockworth East, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ind: 499 (68.3%) New

Con: 110 (15.0%) -9.4%

LDem: 87 (11.9%) -1.0%

Lab: 35 (4.8%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Bere Ferrers, West Devon Borough Council

Con: 362 (32.5%) +2.4%

Lab: 361 (32.4%) +12.1%

LDem: 216 19.4%) -11.8%

Grn: 176 (15.8%) New

Con GAIN from LDem

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Lib = Liberal

LDem = Liberal Democrat

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

WEP = Women's Equality Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 04.11.21

Six by-elections to report and a bad night for the Tories.  They were defending three seats, but lost two to the Liberal Democrats.  They were obliterated in Gloucester, but fared much better in West Lancashire where they extended their lead over Labour and appeared to benefit from the absence of UKIP.

The Lib Dems held in Huntingdon where Labour did not even field a candidate this time.  Labour held in their Salford stronghold and gained a seat in Rutland.  The latter was a free-for-all following the resignation of an independent who'd previously been elected unopposed.  It was also the first time Labour had won a seat on Rutland County Council in over twenty years.

Longlevens, Gloucester City Council

LDem: 1,520 (60.3%) +15.1%

Con: 781 (31.0%) -17.8%

Lab: 135 (5.4%) New

Grn: 78 (3.4%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Huntingdon East, Huntingdonshire District Council

LDem: 813 (55.3%) +8.3%

Con: 656 (44.7%) +5.6%

LDem HOLD

Oakham North West, Rutland County Council

Lab: 293 (62.6%) New

Con: 175 (37.4%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Blackfriars & Trinity, Salford City Council

Lab: 408 (51.8%) -2.3%

Grn: 160 (20.3%) -6.4%

LDem: 152 (19.3%) +13.0%

Con: 68 (8.6%) +0.8%

Lab HOLD

North Meols, West Lancashire Borough Council

Con: 634 (64.9%) +15.6%

Lab: 343 (35.1%) -3.0%

Con HOLD

Bourne, West Sussex County Council

LDem: 1,180 (49.7%) +20.7%

Con: 893 (37.6%) -13.4%

Grn: 178 (7.5%) -3.4%

Lab: 125 (5.3%) -3.9%

LDem GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ind = Independents

LABOUR GAIN WEST OF ENGLAND

Labour's victorious Dan Norris (left) and Samuel Williams of the Tories

A shock result has been declared for the West of England mayor.  The Conservatives were expected to hold here, but Labour have taken the post after a run-off.  The incumbent mayor, Tim Bowles, retired ahead of the election.

UKIP did not contest this time round, nor did any independents.

West of England Mayor (Lab GAIN from Con)

Dan Norris (Lab) 84,434 (33.4%) +6.1%

Samuel Williams (Con) 72,415 (28.6%) +1.3%

Jerome Thomas (Green) 54,919 (21.7%) +10.5%

Stephen Williams (LDem) 41,193 (16.3%) -3.9%

Final Round

Dan Norris (Lab) 59.5% 

Samuel Williams (Con) 40.5%

KINDER, GENTLER FIRING SQUAD

Earlier this month a Gloucestershire Labour councillor responded to the general election defeat by suggesting that all Tory MPs should be shot.

Cllr Zac Arnold, a young Labour activist and member of Lydney Town Council, has since deleted the Facebook post.  It's not the first time he's courted controversy.  Earlier this year he was arrested after refusing to leave a council meeting and he was referred to the council's standards committee this month (prior to his Facebook post).  The committee is to investigate two complaints relating to councillors' code of conduct.

Arnold is listed as a 'youth officer' in his local Constituency Labour Party, clearly setting another fine example of 'kinder, gentler politics' to the Labour youth.

Cllr Zac Arnold

Thanks to David Baker for providing this story.

LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFECTS... TO THE TORIES!

Councillors come and go every week - they stand down, become independents and occasionally switch sides - but rarely do Labour councillors cross over to the Tories (or vice versa).  It happened this week in the Gloucestershire town of Patchway.  Cllr Roger Loveridge (pictured) will now sit as a Conservative councillor after ditching Labour with the following parting shot;

"I have been a Patchway resident for almost my entire life and my only reason for joining the town council was to serve our community. Sadly, I always found myself being shunned and at loggerheads with other Labour councillors when I tried to encourage positive change. I fought for more openness, as meetings were often unnecessarily behind closed doors, but the only people who would ever support me in this were the Conservative councillors, who I can see now care more about the greater good of Patchway than my previous colleagues".

The Bristol Post approached the council leader for comment, Labour's Eve Orpen, but she declined.  She also 'declined to comment' earlier this month when a damning audit of Patchway Town Council uncovered 'discrepancies in the accounts' among other things.  No wonder Cllr Loveridge binned the Labour Party!