COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 11.06.26

Three seats were up for grabs this week, a gentle warm-up for next week's mammoth round of by-elections (18 council and three Westminster).  The lads mostly favoured Reform for success this week, but Reform drew a rare blank.

Christleton & Huntington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Con: 1,214 (32.9%) +6.8%

Grn: 1,122 (30.4%) +7.8%

Ref: 635 (17.2%) New

Lab: 389 (10.5%) -9.8%

LDm: 331 (9.0%) -7.5%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, the Tories selected a former MP to defend the seat in his honour.  Stephen Mosley lost his City of Chester seat at Westminster after just one term in 2015 (Labour have held the seat since).  Mosley successfully held this time, albeit in the face of a strong challenge from the Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time, which appeared to benefit both parties, who not only increased their vote share, but their number of votes also.  The ward is only 30 miles from the Makerfield constituency, so Reform's campaign may have been diluted by their focus on the big Westminster by-election.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

Apsley & Corner Hall, Dacorum Borough Council

LDm: 742 (32.9%) -15.6%

Ref: 552 (24.5%) New

Con: 404 (17.9%) -14.9%

Ind: 213 (9.5%) New

Grn: 181 (8.0%) New

Lab: 161 (7.1%) -11.5%

LDm HOLD

This was a notional hold for the Lib Dems, with the incumbent having served as an independent for the last two years.  She resigned from the Lib Dems alongside several colleagues, following a row with the then Lib Dem council leader.  The Lib Dems lost their majority on the council as a result.  The party got the seat back on Thursday night, but with a much reduced majority.  Reform surged straight into second place, with the Tory and Labour vote share suffering also.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Cippenham Green, Slough Borough Council

Grn: 409 (24.5%) New

Con: 404 (24.2%) -19.9%

Lab: 355 (21.3%) -6.9%

Ref: 326 (19.5%) New

LDm: 176 (10.5%) +1.0%

Grn GAIN from Con

The Greens came from nowhere to stun the Conservatives, albeit by the slimmest of margins with just five votes in it.  This was a close run contest all round, with just 83 votes separating the Green victors from fourth place Reform.  The Tories had won this seat fairly easily in 2023 and were looking for a hold after the incumbent unexpectedly resigned.  The Greens clearly benefited from an electorate containing a significant Asian population, but curiously it was only the two right-leaning parties that selected Asian candidates.  The Reform candidate had the unfortunate surname Mahboob (which stems from a term of endearment in Arabic).

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Of the nine by-elections held since May 7th, these are the overall scores on the doors (look away Richey).  This could all change next week, with lots to play for (especially if your name's Andy and you love yourself and want the top job).

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.01.26

Five seats were contested on Thursday, with two additional by-elections held in Derbyshire on Tuesday.  In those earlier elections, the Greens finally got a result they could truly celebrate, with an impressive gain from Reform.  Tuesday was a mixed evening for Reform, with the party gaining from Labour in the other seat.  These were also the first electoral outings for Ben Habib's Advance UK, with mixed results.  They did not have a particularly damaging effect on Reform in either seat, but this could change over time.

Labour lost to Reform again on Thursday, losing a seat in north Wales.  Their vote share was down across the board, finishing last in Norfolk and pushed into distant third by Reform in an embarrassing result north of the border.

Despite their gain on Tuesday, the Greens failed to impress elsewhere and their vote share was down in the four other seats the party contested.  This included two wooden spoons that included a particularly disastrous result in which they lost a seat to the Lib Dems.

It was a better week for the Tories, despite the notion of their looming demise gaining traction.  They managed to hold onto two seats, in spite of a decreased vote share in both.  Straws clutched.

Willaston & Thornton, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Con: 997 (53.8%) -7.1%

Lab: 318 (17.2%) -9.3%

Ref: 299 (16.1%) New

LDm: 132 (7.1%) +2.4%

Grn: 107 (5.8%) -2.2%

Con HOLD

The Rissingtons, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 321 (37.5%) New

Con: 268 (31.3%) -11.5%

Ref: 221 (25.8%) New

Grn: 47 (5.5%) -51.7%

LDm GAIN from Grn

Glenrothes West & Kinglassie, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,167 (44.3%) -5.3%

Ref: 725 (27.5%) New

Lab: 413 (15.7%) -16.8%

Con: 182 (6.9%) -4.7%

LDm: 125 (4.7%) +0.9%

SFP: 25 (0.9%) New

SNP HOLD

Leeswood, Flintshire County Council

Ref: 160 (22.3%) New

Ind: 138 (19.2%) -5.6%

Ind: 135 (18.8%) +4.3%

Lab: 87 (12.1%) -48.5%

Ind: 79 (11.0%) New

LDm: 68 (9.5%) New

Con: 34 (4.7%) New

Ind: 17 (2.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Central Wymondham, South Norfolk District Council

Con: 545 (31.1%) -4.6%

Grn: 454 (25.9%) -3.7%

Ref: 363 (20.7%) +15.1%

LDm: 211 (12.0%) New

Lab: 182 (10.4%) -18.8%

Con HOLD

The following contests were held on Tuesday.

Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar, Amber Valley Borough Council

Ref: 595 (45.6%) +24.1%

Lab: 249 (19.1%) -20.8%

Adv: 161 (12.3%) New

Con: 130 (10.0%) -15.3%

Grn: 77 (5.9%) -5.5%

Ind: 50 (3.8%) New

LDm: 42 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Horsley, Derbyshire County Council

Grn: 1,341 (43.6%) +16.7%

Ref: 1,091 (35.5%) +0.6%

Con: 426 (13.9%) -8.9%

Lab: 116 (3.8%) -6.5%

Adv: 57 (1.9%) New

LDm: 43 (1.4%) -2.0%

Grn GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

Adv = Advance UK

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.11.25

Seven seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with Labour on the defence in the north Yorkshire borough of Redcar and Cleveland.  No-one had come close to unseating Labour in this ward previously, but the Reform juggernaut was new in town and they missed out on a gain by a margin of just 25 votes!

Labour were also on the defence in Macclesfield, where the disgraced incumbent was elected on their ticket in 2019.  Cllr Ashley Farrall was suspended by the party last year after being charged with assaulting his partner.  He was cleared of the charge, but later convicted of perverting the course of justice and is now serving a twelve month sentence.  Labour had a huge majority here, but the Green Party dislodged them with a huge swing.

Elsewhere, there were some interesting results.  North of the border, a free-for-all election went to the Conservatives, despite finishing second to Reform on first preference votes.  By the time all the transfer votes were whittled down, the Tory candidate pipped Reform to what would have been a stunning victory first time out.

Reform fared even better south of the border, taking two Tory seats - one of which by the ultra thin margin of three votes.  The merry-go-round continued in Greater Manchester, where the Tories usurped the Green Party.  Despite Trafford Council being under Labour for six years, they did not even bother contesting this seat.

Labour's vote was down everywhere they stood, including a pathetic nine votes in one of two Warwickshire seats.

Macclesfield Central, Cheshire East District Council

Grn: 750 (41.8%) +19.7%

Lab: 513 (28.6%) -25.7%

Ref: 283 (15.8%) New

Con: 164 (9.1%) -4.5%

Eql: 45 (2.5%) New

LDm: 40 (2.2%) -7.7%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Stranraer and the Rhins, Dumfries and Galloway Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,386 (34.4%) New

Con: 1,302 (33.5%) -7.4%

SNP: 541 (13.9%) -9.1%

Lab: 239 (6.1%) -3.7%

Ind: 207 (5.3%) New

Grn: 141 (3.6%) +1.1%

LDm: 96 (2.5%) New

Hrt: 27 (0.7%) New

Con GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 7)

Ashdown & Conquest, East Sussex County Council

Ref: 797 (32.2%) New

Grn: 607 (24.5%) +16.4%

Con: 494 (19.9%) -39.8%

Lab: 395 (15.9%) -7.4%

LDm: 129 (5.2%) -3.5%

Ind: 55 (2.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

South Bank, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council

Lab: 368 (47.4%) -17.8%

Ref: 344 (44.3%) New

Con: 64 (8.2%) -4.3%

Lab HOLD

Quinton, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

LDm: 437 (47.3%) +3.5%

Ref: 306 (33.1%) New

Con: 137 (14.8%) -26.2%

Grn: 35 (3.8%) -4.7%

Lab: 9 (1.0%) -5.7%

LDm HOLD

Salford Priors & Alcester Rural, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

Ref: 272 (33.3%) New

LDm: 269 (32.9%) +9.7%

Con: 227 (27.8%) -29.1%

Grn: 31 (3.8%) -5.3%

Lab: 18 (2.2%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Hale, Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,521 (46.5%) +9.8%

Grn: 1,245 (38.1%) -9.6%

Ref: 264 (0.1%) New

LDm: 101 (3.1%) -0.6%

Con GAIN from Grn

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Eql = Equality

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.10.25

Seven seats were contested on Thursday and it was very nearly a clean sweep for Reform UK.  The party gained five, held one and lost out to Labour by 63 votes in Cheshire.  The latter saw a bruising drop of almost 33 per cent in Labour's vote share.

Reform made relatively easy gains - all as newcomers - from the Tories in Essex and they also took three formerly independent seats in Kent.  They also held a seat on the Isle of Wight with a marginal increase in vote share.

The Labour vote share was down in all four seats the party contested.

Hutton South, Brentwood Borough Council

Ref: 805 (45.8%) New

Con: 544 (30.9%) -14.5%

Lab: 234 (13.3%) -14.5%

LDm: 109 (6.2%) -9.6%

Grn: 66 (3.8%) -7.2%

Ref GAIN from Con

Strawberry, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Lab: 602 (35.8%) -32.9%

Ref: 539 (32.0%) New

Ind: 231 (13.7%) New

Con: 132 (7.8%) -16.8%

LDm: 121 (7.2%) +0.5%

Grn: 58 (3.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Lake North, Isle of Wight Council

Ref: 290 (36.8%) +0.7%

Con: 249 (31.6%) +2.8%

LDm: 118 (15.0%) +4.4%

Grn: 88 (11.2%) -0.9%

Lab: 44 (5.6%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

Harrietsham, Lenham & North Downs, Maidstone Borough Council

(3 seats)

Ref: 1,228, 1,226 & 1,153

Grn: 459, 452 & 430

Con: 342, 285 & 234

LDm: 236, 156 & 123

Hrt: 97

Ind: 74

Ind: 69

Ref GAIN from Ind (x3)

Wigan Central, Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,301 (47.2%) New

Lab: 970 (32.9%) -15.3%

Ind: 196 (6.7%) New

Con: 151 (5.1%) -9.4%

Grn: 130 (4.4%) -2.1%

LDm: 109 (3.7%) +0.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative
Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 11.09.25

Six by-elections were held on Thursday, half of which were Labour defences.  In a humiliating night, Labour lost all three to Reform in spectacular fashion.  Labour slipped to third in Bedfordshire, while they crashed to fourth in both Suffolk and Glamorgan.  Another gain for Reform bodes well for their Senedd hopes next year.

It was a mixed night for the Tories as they lost two seats - one to the Lib Dems and one to Reform - but picked up a gain from a residents' group in Cheshire.

Talbot & Branksome Woods, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council

LDm: 910 (32.4%) -2.1%

Ref: 791 (28.2%) New

Con: 770 (27.4%) -4.9%

Lab: 170 (6.1%) -5.7%

Grn: 165 (5.9%) -6.6%

LDm GAIN from Con

Stotfold, Central Bedfordshire Council

Ref: 823 (30.8%) New

Con: 559 (20.9%) +1.3%

Lab: 532 (19.9%) -4.2%

Grn: 416 (15.6%) New

LDm: 339 (12.7%) +0.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Wilmslow Lacey Green, Cheshire East Council

Con:370 (29.8%) -8.4%

Lab: 300 (24.2%) New

Ref: 288 (23.2%) New

Ind: 215 (17.3%) -30.2%

Grn: 67 (5.4%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Illtyd, Vale of Glamorgan Council

Ref: 729 (31.3%) New

Pld: 657 (28.2%) +10.1%

Con: 445 (19.1%) -10.2%

Lab: 414 (17.8%) -22.7%

Grn: 85 (3.6%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Pelsall, Walsall Council

Ref: 1,231 (45.0%) +31.3%

Con: 1,176 (43.1%) -24.1%

Grn: 127 (4.7%) New

Lab: 125 (4.6%) -14.5%

LDm: 72 (2.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Newmarket East, West Suffolk Council

Ref: 343 (29.7%) New

Con: 288 (25.0%) +4.1%

LDm: 199 (17.2%) -3.1%

Lab: 176 (15.3%) -8.3%

Grn: 148 (12.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

MEME MONDAY #47

A quieter week for our meme maker, but some stirring efforts nonetheless...

Mon 4 Aug - 51 shares

Tue 5 Aug - 189 shares.  The original Facebook version has the wrong date on
it - the 25th.  Apologies for this oversight.  It came about because Karl took the
date of Tim Parry's death (the 25th) as the date of the attack.  However, while the
toddler Johnathan Ball died at the scene of the twin bombing, Tim Parry was
mortally wounded and his life support machine was sadly switched off five
days later

Tue 5 Aug - 1 share.  Not strictly a meme, but a poll, the result
of which was as follows
Yes = 50
No = 9

Thu 7 Aug - 247 shares

Thu 7 Aug - 25 shares

Thu 7 Aug - 424 shares

Thu 7 Aug - 200 shares.  Ali's resignation marked the tenth departure from
the Starmer ministry.  That's quite impressive given that the first anniversary
of his premiership was only last month

Fri 8 Aug - 62 shares

Fri 8 Aug - 153 shares

Sat 9 Aug - 67 shares

Sat 9 Aug - 37 shares

Sun 10 Aug - 170 shares

Sun 10 Aug - 52 shares

Just the one Facebook Story last week, but Karl says watch this space for the week ahead...

Do you appreciate what we do?  You can buy us a metaphorical pint each here - this helps fund our work and also provides a morale booster!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 31.07.25

Just three council vacancies were fought over this week, two of which were Labour defences.  They managed to fend off a challenge from Green newcomers in east London, where the Labour vote share plummeted by almost 26 per cent.  There was a large swing there from Labour to both the Greens and Reform, who were also newcomers in that ward.

Labour endured a similar collapse in their vote share in Warrington, where Reform UK gained their first seat on that council.  Elsewhere, the Lib Dems completed a routine hold in their south west stronghold, where Labour did not even bother putting up a candidate this time around.  That's understandable, as their 11 per cent last time would have guaranteed them last place, even without their now trademark slump...

Thames View, Barking and Dagenham London Borough Council

Lab: 334 (36.1%) -25.9%

Grn: 277 (29.9%) New

Ref: 197 (21.3%) New

Con: 117 (12.6%) -10.6%

Lab HOLD

Barnstaple with Westacott, North Devon District Council

LDm: 505 (40.5%) +0.5%

Ref: 383 (30.7%) New

Con: 205 (16.4%) -6.1%

Grn: 154 (12.3%) -2.4%

LDm HOLD

Bewsey & Whitecross, Warrington Borough Council

Ref: 752 (43.7%) New

Lab: 631 (36.6%) -22.6%

LDm: 223 (13.0%) -8.4%

Con: 116 (6.7%) -12.7%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

REFORM GAIN RUNCORN & HELSBY

SIX VOTES: Nigel Farage indicates the narrow margin in Runcorn

A huge swing from Labour to Reform has delivered a very narrow victory for the latter in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.  Reform's Sarah Pochin triumphed by just six votes, following a recount demanded by Labour.  Reform had led the first count by an even smaller margin of four votes.  The result was the narrowest Westminster by-election since the Liberal candidate unseated the Conservatives by 57 votes in the Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973.

Labour had been defending a 14,696 majority coming into this by-election, but the swing from Labour to Reform was a huge 17.4 per cent.

The Conservatives remained third, but fell further behind and finished just 27 votes ahead of the fourth placed Green candidate.  Turnout was 46.2 per cent.

Runcorn and Helsby By-Election 2025

Sarah Pochin (Ref) 12,645 (38.7%) +20.5%

Karen Shore (Lab) 12,639 (38.7%) -14.3%

Sean Houlston (Con) 2,341 (7.2%) -8.8%

Chris Copeman (Grn) 2,314 (7.1%) +0.7%

Paul Duffy (LDm) 942 (2.9%) -2.2%

Dan Clarke (Lib) 454 (1.4%) +0.3%

Michael Williams (Ind) 363 (1.1%) New

Alan McKie (Ind) 269 (0.8%) New

Peter Ford (WPB) 164 (0.5%) New

John Stevens (REU) 129 (0.4%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 128 (0.4%) New

Catherine Blaiklock (EDm) 95 (0.3%) New

Paul Andrew Murphy (SDP) 68 (0.2%) -0.1%

Jason Philip Hughes (Volt) 54 (0.2%) New

Graham Harry Moore (ECP) 50 (0.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

LABOUR'S LITTLE HELPERS

Labour's far left helpers in Runcorn (note the lack of diversity)

If you want an example of how important the Runcorn and Helsby by-election is to Labour, look no further than the deployment of their little helpers from far left third parties who are not standing in the election.  A group calling itself 'Stand Up To Racism' has been posting smear leaflets in the constituency and is currently holding a demonstration outside the count chanting: "Nigel Farage, we know you, you're a racist through and through".

As you can see from the clip below, while the chant is led by a Muslim woman, the rest of the group is almost exclusively white.  So much for diversity!

The homogeneously white make-up of these far left clowns is also plain to see from their group photo outside the Co-op at the top of this article, a 100 per cent white group complaining about a party which has a Sri Lankan Muslim as its chairman.  You couldn't make it up.

Labour has deployed these third party smear groups for decades now, with previous incarnations known as the 'Anti-Nazi League' and 'Unite Against Fascism'.  They are used wherever right-wing parties are seen as a threat to Labour dominance.  There is never an outcry about these explicitly anti-democratic exercises, because they serve the establishment.  Meanwhile, entire elections can be called into question or outright cancelled when the establishment does not get the result it wants - think Brexit, 'Russian interference' in the 2016 Trump victory, cancelled elections in Romania, outlawed candidates in France and elsewhere.

ODDS ON IN RUNCORN

Five of the 15 Runcorn candidates line up for a debate (l-r Chris Copeman (Grn),
Paul Duffy (LDm), Sean Houlston (Con), Sarah Pochin (Ref) and Karen Shore (Lab)

There are various layers of elections taking place on Thursday, but perhaps the one with most eyes upon it will be the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by the resignation of disgraced Labour MP Mike Amesbury.  Labour will be defending a 14,696 majority going into this by-election, which in normal circumstances would be a relatively easy seat to defend, but this by-election takes place in no such circumstances.

The nature of Amesbury's departure, combined with the wretched Labour government's plummeting approval ratings, has opened up the contest to a possible upset.  The bookies have Reform UK as odds on favourites, albeit their odds are drifting slightly going into election day, with Labour's odds shortening.  There is clearly some late money banking on a narrow Labour hold.

William Hill election day odds

Reform UK 3/10

Labour 12/5

Tories 200/1

Independents 250/1

All other candidates 500/1

Not surprisingly, given Amesbury's violent antics, Labour have opted for a female candidate.  Karen Shore is the former deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council.  Reform have also gone for a female, ex Tory councillor Sarah Pochin.  Pochin's selection will do nothing to dissuade critics that Reform are moving in a Uniparty direction.  Tory connections asides, she is a magistrate who has also worked for major multinational energy companies such as Shell.  She screams 'establishment'.

As per usual for a Westminster by-election, the ballot paper will be a crowded affair, with 15 candidates having coughed up a deposit.  Disaffected Labour voters will be spoiled for choice as to where to place their protest vote.

Runcorn and Helsby candidates

Catherine Blaiklock (English Democrats)

Dan Clarke (Liberal)

Chris Copeman (Green)

Paul Duffy (Liberal Democrat)

Peter Ford (Workers Party of Britain)

Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony)

Sean Houlston (Conservative)

Jason Philip Hughes (Volt)

Alan McKie (Independent)

Graham Harry Moore (English Constitution)

Paul Andrew Murphy (SDP)

Sarah Pochin (Reform UK)

Karen Shore (Labour)

John Stevens (Rejoin EU)

Michael Williams (Independent)

Reform already secured second place in last year's general election and Kemi Badenoch's somewhat uninspiring start to her Tory leadership will do Reform no harm this time.  The result will come down to just how many of those 22,358 Labour voters switch parties or don't show up at all.  Crucially, the size of the Labour swing to Reform will decide the outcome and we see the result being fairly tight.

Runcorn and Helsby 2024 general election

Mike Amesbury (Lab) 22,358 (52.9%) +4.1%

Jason Moorcroft (Ref) 7,662 (18.1%) +13.3%

Jade Marsden (Con) 6,756 (16.0%) -20.8%

Chris Copeman (Grn) 2,715 (6.4%) +3.5%

Chris Rowe (LDm) 2,149 (5.1%) -1.6%

Danny Clarke (Lib) 479 (1.1%) New

Paul Murphy (SDP) 116 (0.3%) New

RESPITE FOR REFORM?

Farage and Yusuf unveil almost 30 new councillors

The very public mudslinging that has wracked Reform UK in recent weeks won't go away, but Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf hoped to get the fledgling party back on track with a major announcement on Monday.  The pair announced 29 council defections to Reform from other parties or having previously been independents or members of local residents' groups.  26 of the new members were in attendance at the press conference.

Some of the defections actually occurred up to a month ago, such as the defections of Conservatives Kirk Harrison, Joanne Monk and Stephen Reed, who announced their defections weeks ago.  Clearly, Monday's event was intended as a distraction from the rumblings within.

Of the defections, 15 were Conservatives, 12 were independents or from local residents' groups (two of which had previously been Conservatives) and one each came from Labour and the Lib Dems.  Most of the new Reformers are county councillors.

These are the new Reform councillors that Farage named...

• Cllr Heather Asker, Uttlesford District Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Atkinson, Ribble Valley Borough Council (was Conservative and leader of the council)
• Cllr Bill Barrett, Ashford Borough Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Felix Bloomfield, Oxfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Mandy Clare, Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council (was Labour, reportedly left in opposition to trans ideology)
• Cllr Stuart Davies, North Somerset Council (was independent)
• Cllr Emma Ellison, Blackpool Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Paul Ellison, Wyre Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Robert Gibson, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Kirk Harrison, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Manzur Hasan, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Cathy Hunt, Durham County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Paul Irwin, Buckinghamshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Claire Jonson-Wood, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Reg Kain, Cheshire East Council (was Liberal Democrat)
• Cllr Edward Kirk, Wiltshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Karl Lewis, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Graham McAndrew, Hertfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Iain McIntosh, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Joanne Monk, Worcestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Geoff Morgan, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Jan O'Hara, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Christine Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Richard Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Reed, North East Derbyshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Dirk Ross, Kent County Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Matthew Salter, Lancashire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Vernon Smith, Gloucestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Thomas Sneath, South Holland District Council (was independent)

A further defection was announced in the form of Julian Kirk, who has resigned his seat on Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council in protest at delayed local elections.  He was an independent, having previously been a Conservative councillor.

These announcements came just as another existing Reform councillor quit the party, a member of East Riding Yorkshire Council.  Still, a big net gain for Farage with the news of such a large influx.

There was quite possibly more important news for Reform on Monday.  Convict MP Mike Amesbury has officially stood down as the member for Runcorn and Helsby, triggering the by-election we've all been waiting for.  This will be a huge indicator of Reform's electoral prowess and ability to shake off its recent troubles.  They remain odds on favourites with the bookies to win the Cheshire seat and those odds have now stabilised, having previously been drifting a little in response to the infighting.

There is no date for the Runcorn by-election as yet.

AMESBURY TO RESIGN

Convict MP Mike Amesbury has told the BBC that he intends to resign his Runcorn and Helsby seat 'as soon as possible'.  Amesbury says he will stand down once his staff are laid off:  "I'm going to step aside at the earliest opportunity.  I've got processes I must go through, there's a statutory process in terms of redundancies, so it's not only me out of a job".

The MP appeared to be on the verge of tears as he spoke.  He responded to a question surrounding criticism of his sentence:  "I am going to lose the family home, my livelihood and walk away with a criminal record - if people think that's [getting off] lightly, so be it".

It is two weeks to the day that Amesbury was convicted of assault.  In standing down, he avoids the recall process, which would have almost certainly resulted in his dismissal from Westminster anyway.

A by-election will be arranged once Amesbury officially tenders his resignation.  Bookies have got Reform UK as odds on favourites to win the seat, albeit the odds are drifting as the Farage-Lowe feud continues to undermine the party.

Runcorn and Helsby 2024 General Election

Mike Amesbury (Lab) 22,358 (52.9%)

Jason Moorcroft (Ref) 7,662 (18.1%)

Jade Marsden (Con) 6,756 (16.0%)

Chris Copeman (Grn) 2,715 (6.4%)

Chris Rowe (LDm) 2,149 (5.1%)

Danny Clarke (Lib) 479 (1.1%)

Paul Murphy (SDP) 116 (0.3%)

AMESBURY FREED ON APPEAL

MP Mike Amesbury has been freed from prison after serving just two days of a ten week sentence.  Having been sent down on Monday afternoon, he appeared at Chester Crown Court this morning for a lightning appeal hearing.  After being led into court in handcuffs, his original ten week sentence was suspended for two years, although he will now have to carry out 200 hours of community service, undertake 120 days of alcohol monitoring, complete an anger management course and 20 days of rehabilitation.

The decision by judge Steven Everett to spare Amesbury prison will spark widespread anger and renewed accusations of two tier justice.  During the hearing the judge questioned why a charge of affray had not been sought by the prosecution, which normally results in a longer sentence.  Sitting alongside two magistrates, Everett told the court:  "We came to the conclusion that, without in any way criticising the original sentence of ten weeks, because of the important change in the last three to four days - you are a realistic prospect of rehabilitation and therefore we will suspend the sentence for two years."

It's an outrageous statement that begs the question: What 'important change'?  What could have changed just two days into a ten week sentence, that warrants an urgent appeal resulting in the immediate suspension of his sentence?  Would one of his constituents have been treated with the same leniency?  What if it had been Amesbury who had been punched to the ground and viciously assaulted thereafter, would that constituent receive a ten week sentence and an immediate appeal?

It is understood that Amesbury's solicitor launched an appeal shortly after the MP was sentenced, but the speed with which it was heard will raise a few eyebrows.  A potential recall petition to force Amesbury out of office cannot proceed until all appeals have been heard.  Now a free man, he can opt to bite the bullet or appeal again and risk being returned to prison.

Amesbury's defence barrister told the court that his three nights in prison would be 'an experience he will never forget'.  He added that the MP 'will learn a painful lesson' following 'public shaming' and the 'embarrassment' caused by his self-inflicted predicament.

A Labour spokesperson confirmed that Amesbury would not be allowed back into the party and repeated calls for the MP to resign so that a by-election can be held in his Runcorn and Helsby constituency.

MIKE AMESBURY JAILED

Labour's Mike Amesbury has been jailed for ten weeks after pleading guilty to attacking constituent Paul Fellows back in October last year.  The shocking attack, in which the MP repeatedly punched the 45-year-old even after he'd been knocked to the ground, was caught on CCTV.  Amesbury pleaded guilty to the assault at a previous hearing last month.

Wearing a dark suit and red tie, the MP returned to Chester Magistrates' Court on Monday to hear his fate.  The court heard that Mr Amesbury had knocked his victim to the ground with a single punch to the face.  He then continued the assault as Mr Fellows lay in the road, punching him again 'at least five times'.  Mr Fellows sought medical attention after the assault and was left with a lump on his head and an injured elbow, although it is not clear if these were from Amesbury's fists or when he landed on the tarmac.

The prosecutor told the court that the MP had claimed he had acted in 'self defence' during a police interview, but that 'it was clear there was no aggression from Mr Fellows'.  Following the assault,  which was broken up by several members of the public, Amesbury returned to his victim as he lay injured in the road.  The MP repeatedly pointed his finger in an aggressive manner and told his victim that he would not 'threaten' him again.  No evidence of Mr Fellows having threatened Mr Amesbury was presented in court.

WATCH:  "You won't threaten me again"

The magistrate told the court that such an assault could carry a custodial sentence of 'up to 16 weeks', but given the 'limited injuries' in the case and Amesbury being at a 'lower risk' of reoffending, the sentence handed down was ten weeks.  The MP was also ordered to pay Mr Fellows' costs.  He stood in silence as the verdict was delivered, before being led from the dock and into custody.  A bail request was refused.

Amesbury had been serving as an independent MP following his suspension from Labour and his political career is now almost certainly over.  He will serve his sentence at HMP Altcourse in Liverpool and is likely to be released in around four weeks.

The Manchester-born MP was elected for the Cheshire constituency of Runcorn and Helsby last year.  The seat was previously known as Weaver Vale, which Amesbury had represented since 2017.  The custodial sentence handed down to the 55-year-old means that a recall petition can now be triggered.  Just ten per cent of his constituents are required to sign the petition in order to sack him and trigger a by-election.  The recall process can be avoided if the MP opts to resign, something that Reform chair Zia Yusuf has today demanded of Amesbury.

Amesbury's majority in Runcorn and Helsby is currently 14,696, up from the wafer thin 562 majority he obtained in the previous seat back in 2019.  Second placed Reform will be looking to add to their tally of five MPs by winning the seat from Labour, should the recall be successful.

Runcorn and Helsby 2024 General Election

Mike Amesbury (Lab) 22,358 (52.9%)

Jason Moorcroft (Ref) 7,662 (18.1%)

Jade Marsden (Con) 6,756 (16.0%)

Chris Copeman (Grn) 2,715 (6.4%)

Chris Rowe (LDm) 2,149 (5.1%)

Danny Clarke (Lib) 479 (1.1%)

Paul Murphy (SDP) 116 (0.3%)

AMESBURY 'FELT THREATENED'

Labour's Mike Amesbury is in serious deep water and he knows it.  With video footage from multiple angles, including the CCTV footage, there is zero doubt that Amesbury committed a sustained violent assault on a constituent in the early hours of Saturday.  With millions of Britons watching on in anticipation of how this plays out, if nothing is done it will further instill what we already know - Two Tier Britain is not a myth.

Amesbury's only public response to date is a statement on his social media accounts, in which he says he 'felt threatened'.  However, the video footage clearly shows that his victim was standing off Amesbury, with his hands down by his sides and he actually looks away the moment before Amesbury launches his attack.  There is no visible threat to the MP and even with reports that the man had been complaining about a local bridge closure and cuts to winter fuel payments, if the debate was so heated why is everyone else in the video standing well away and apparently minding their own business - and yet, crucially, immediately intervene when they realise an assault is in progress?  If the two were arguing so vociferously and the MP felt 'threatened', surely these people would have been surrounding the men and trying to calm them down?

As ever, there is a very apt social media post from the MP at the centre of this incident.  Less than three months ago, Amesbury posted about 'thugs and criminals' on X, sharing a Home Office graphic that threatened rioters with hefty sentences...

What sentence can we expect for you, Mr Amesbury?

MIKE AMESBURY SUSPENDED

Labour have suspended MP Mike Amesbury following an assault in the early hours of Saturday morning in Frodsham, Cheshire.

The Daily Mail have obtained CCTV footage which shows the 55-year-old MP for Runcorn and Helsby punching a constituent and then repeatedly punching him as he lay on the ground.  In a separate video filmed by a witness, Amesbury is heard pointing and telling the man: "You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?"  The man's body language in the CCTV footage does not appear threatening and he is not even looking at Amesbury when the MP sucker punches him.

Watch the clip below.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.09.24

With seven by-elections having taken place on Thursday, it seems as good a time as any to resume our weekly by-election report.  With a backlash against Starmer's nanny state already in progress, local election results can help us form a bigger picture as to how public opinion is shifting.

Three of the seats up for grabs were in Camden, two of which are situated in Keir Starmer's constituency of Holborn and St Pancras.  Turnout in one ward - Kilburn - was just 13 per cent.  Labour held all three, but with a reduced vote share.  In Camden Square and Kentish Town South there were big swings from Labour to Muslim independents, continuing a trend set in the general election and sure to cause Labour huge electoral problems in their old inner city and mill town heartlands as Britain's demographics continue to shift rapidly.

Labour also held a seat in Cheshire, but again with a reduced vote share thanks to a huge swing to Reform UK.  The pattern was repeated in Manchester where they held with a reduced share that went mostly to the Green candidate.  They gained an independent seat in south Wales, but lost a seat in North Yorkshire to the Conservatives, where the swing away from Labour was distributed across various newcomers, but mostly went to the victorious Tory candidate.

Camden Square, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 465 (47.7%) -27.8%

Ind: 164 (16.8%) New

Grn: 133 (13.7%) New

LDem: 89 (9.1%) -4.9%

Ind: 75 (7.7%) New

Con: 48 (4.9%) -5.5%

Lab HOLD

Kentish Town South, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 674 (46.8%) -12.0%

Grn: 327 (22.7%) +1.1%

Ind: 289 (20.1%) New

Con: 77 (5.4%) -2.4%

LDem: 72 (5.0%) -3.0%

Lab HOLD

Kilburn, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 583 (51.5%) -15.2%

Con: 253 (22.3%) +4.2%

Grn: 198 (17.5%) (New

LDem: 98 (8.7%) -6.5%

Lab HOLD

Crewe West, Cheshire East Council

Lab: 553 (43.3%) -18.5%

Ref: 333 (26.1%) New

Con: 217 (17.0%) -0.7%

Ind: 109 (8.5%) -11.8%

Grn: 63 (4.9%) New

Lab HOLD

Baguley, Manchester City Council

Lab: 623 (46.9%) -15.9%

Grn: 282 (21.2%) +8.6%

Con: 243 (18.3%) -1.6%

LDem: 110 (8.3%) +2.4%

SDP: 71 (5.3%) New

Lab HOLD

Bedlinog & Trelewis, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 411 (48.8%) +16.1%

Ind: 314 (37.2%) New

Plaid: 83 (9.8%) New

Con: 24 (2.8%) -2.3%

Ind: 11 (1.3%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Longbeck, Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council

Con: 384 (37.9%) +14.9%

Lab: 206 (20.4%) -19.4%

Ind: 119 (11.8%) New

Ref: 108 (10.7%) New

Ind: 105 (10.4%) New

Ind: 50 (4.9%) New

LDem: 40 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 08.02.24

It's been a while since we looked in on council by-elections, but with a big month for Westminster by-elections coming up we thought it was time to look in and see what's happening around the country.

This week there were four council seats up for grabs - two in England and two in Wales.  Every seat changed hands, with a gain each for the Tories, Plaid and Lib Dems.  The Crewe Central result raised a few eyebrows in the Twitterverse with the Conservatives taking a seat off Labour with a huge swing.

Ebbw Vale South, Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council

Ind: 239 (60.4%) New

Lab: 124 (31.3%) -11.0%

Grn: 33 (8.3%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Crewe Central, Cheshire East Council

Con: 335 (43.3%) +19.8%

Lab: 277 (35.8%) -18.9%

CFst: 128 (16.5%) +1.2%

WEP: 22 (2.8%) New

Grn: 12 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Criccieth, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Plaid: 381 (71.9%) +30.3%

Ind: 129 (24.3%) New

LDem: 11 (2.1%) New

Con: 9 (1.7%) New

Plaid GAIN from Ind

East Hunsbury & Shelfleys, West Northamptonshire Council

LDem: 820 (38.8%) +15.8%

Con: 746 (35.3%) -16.9%

Lab: 547 (25.9%) +1.1%

LDem GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Con = Conservative

CFst = Crewe First

WEP = Women's Equality Party

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Ind = Independent

BY-ELECTIONS 01.12.22

Labour have held the City of Chester following a by-election to replace the disgraced Chris Matheson.  Matheson resigned in October after a parliamentary watchdog upheld two claims of 'serious sexual misconduct' against him.  Despite the circumstances, Labour candidate Samantha Dixon extended her party's majority from 6,164 to 10,974.  The Tory runner-up saw her party's share of the vote shrink by almost 16 percentage points, making this their worst result in Chester since 1832 (yes, you read that correctly).  The turnout was just 41.2 per cent.

City of Chester Parliamentary By-Election

Samantha Dixon (Lab) 17,309 (61.2%) +11.6%

Liz Wardlaw (Con) 6,335 (22.4%) -15.9%

Rob Herd (LDem) 2,368 (8.4%) +1.6%

Paul Bowers (Grn) 787 (2.8) +0.2%

Jeanie Barton (RefUK) 773 (2.7%) +0.2%

Richard Hewison (Rejoin) 277 (1.0%) New

Cain Griffiths (UKIP) 179 (0.6%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 156 (0.6%) New

Chris Quartermaine (Frdm) 91 (0.3%) New

Lab HOLD

New Chester MP Samantha Dixon

The Labour victor in Chester is a local councillor and former council leader.  Samantha Dixon has been a member of Cheshire West and Chester Council since 2011.  A university graduate (par for the course it seems these days), she was awarded an MBE earlier this year for political service.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives did not fair much better in Thursday's council by-elections.  They were defending three seats and lost all of them - two to the Lib Dems and one to Labour.  Tory vote share was down in all five of the seats up for grabs.  Conversely, Labour's vote share was up in all but one.

The Conservatives plummeted to third place in Norfolk, where a Lib Dem surge pipped Labour to the gain by just eight votes.  In Southampton it was another tight race, with Labour taking the seat from the Tories by 13 votes.  In Waverley the Tories were trounced by a Lib Dem surge, aided by the absence of a Green candidate.

It was an easy hold for the Greens in Arun, West Sussex, while Labour held off the SNP in West Lothian and extended their lead in the process.  The latter by-election saw Alex Salmond's Alba Party finish last.

Absentees this week were the Lib Dems and UKIP in Arun, UKIP in Norfolk, the Greens in Waverley and the Scottish Family Party in West Lothian.

Arundel & Walberton, Arun District Council

Grn: 873 (48.3%) +22.4%

Con: 549 (29.2%) -2.5%

Lab: 407 (22.5%) +10.1%

Grn HOLD

Gaywood North & Central, Norfolk County Council

LDem: 364 (35.6%) +28.5%

Lab: 356 (34.8%) +1.3%

Con: 256 (25.0%) -31.0%

Grn: 46 (4.5%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Bitterne, Southampton City Council

Lab: 806 (46.0%) +4.6%

Con: 793 (45.2%) -1.9%

Grn: 66 (3.8%) -1.6%

LDem: 61 (3.5%) -0.9%

TUSC: 26 (1.5%) -0.3%

Lab GAIN from Con

Chiddingfold & Dunsfold, Waverley Borough Council

LDem: 652 (66.6%) +43.5%

Con: 297 (30.3%) -11.1%

Lab: 30 (3.1%) -5.1%

LDem GAIN from Con

Broxburn, Uphall & Winchburgh, West Lothian Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 1,783 (39.8%) +10.2%

SNP: 1,576 (35.2%) -6.7%

Con: 347 (7.8%) -10.0%

Ind: 275 (6.1%) New

LDem: 167 (3.7%) n/c

Ind: 125 (2.8%) New

Grn: 122 (2.7%) -1.6%

Alba: 81 (1.8%) +0.4%

Lab HOLD (elected at stage 8)

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

RefUK = Reform UK

Rejoin = Rejoin EU

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

Frdm = Freedom Alliance

TUSC = Trade Union and Socialist Coalition

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alba = Alba

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.11.22

Five seats were up for grabs in this week's council action.  On the unusual polling day of Wednesday, the Ashfield Independents held easily.  The following day it was a routine hold for Labour in Sefton, while there were three Conservative defences.  The Tories lost a seat each to Labour (Bassetlaw) and the Lib Dems (Isle of Wight).  They held their other defence by the wafer thin majority of three votes.

Absentees this week were UKIP in Ashfield, the Conservatives in Sefton and an independent in Warrington.

Hucknall Central, Ashfield District Council

Ind: 710 (54.5%) +17.9%

Lab: 397 (30.5%) +0.8%

Con: 195 (15.0%) -3.9%

Ind HOLD

Sutton, Bassetlaw District Council

Lab: 301 (56.1%) +35.8%

Con: 224 (41.7%) -21.9%

LDem: 13 (2.2%) -13.9%

Lab GAIN from Con

Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet, Isle of Wight Council

LDem: 526 (53.4%) +23.5%

Con: 239 (24.3%) -19.3%

Grn: 153 (15.5%) -11.0%

Ind: 36 (3.7%) New

Lab: 31 (3.1%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Linacre, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 636 (81.5%) +5.3%

Ind: 144 (18.5%) +1.2%

Lab HOLD

Rixton and Woolston, Warrington Borough Council

Con: 648 (42.9%) +2.7%

Lab: 645 (42.7%) +5.5%

LDem: 219 (14.5%) +5.0%

Con HOLD