COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.05.26

Four seats were up for grabs this week, the first council contests since Labour's drubbing on May 7.  The preview now takes on a little bit of a different format, with predictions given by Karl and Richey individually.  This is both a time saving exercise and also opens up a bit of competition, which after this round of by-elections favours Karl.  He predicted two out of four correctly, compared to Richey's paltry one.

Bridport, Dorset Council

LDm: 2,190 (43.6%) +8.2%

Ref: 1,164 (23.2%) New

Grn: 1,011 (20.1%) -11.9%

Con: 656 (13.1%) -4.0%

LDm HOLD

Dorset is run by a coalition of Lib Dems and Greens, and this contest looked set to be a showdown between the two parties.  The Greens selected their previous councillor for the seat, who lost to the Lib Dems in the 2024 local elections.  He was defeated a second time and pushed into third place by Reform.  The result wasn't even close, with the Lib Dems more than twice the amount of votes picked up by the Greens and over a thousand votes ahead of Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

Kirkham, Fylde Borough Council

Con: 1,185 (60.6%) +33.9%

Ref: 534 (27.3%) New

Lab: 129 (6.6%) -13.8%

LDm: 107 (5.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

This ward was very much into their independents, but there weren't any standing this time around.  The Tories usually finish distant runners-up here, but had to fend off newcomers in Reform and the Lib Dems to take the seat.  They did so with ease, polling more than twice the number of Reform votes.  Big fail for both of us here.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Castle, Lancaster City Council

Grn: 845 (70.0%) +4.9%

Lab: 190 (15.7%) -10.6%

Ref: 132 (10.9%) New

LDm: 41 (3.4%) n/c

Grn HOLD

The incumbent Green councillor had stood down after completing her studies at Lancaster University and moving away.  This was a solid left-wing affair, with the Conservatives not having bothered to even field a candidate this time.  Reform debuted nonetheless, but it was a routine hold for Zack's crazy gang.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Alfrick, Leigh & Rushwick, Malvern Hills District Council

LDm: 452 (25.8%) +10.6%

Con: 391 (22.3%) +3.2%

Ref: 340 (19.4%) New

Ind: 296 (16.9%) New

Grn: 190 (10.8%) New

Ind: 83 (4.7%) New

LDm GAIN from Ind

Another free-for-all, following the resignation of the incumbent Malvern Hills Independent.  His group did not contest this time, although there were two unaligned independents standing.  The Tories usually finish a distant second here and were up against newcomers Reform and the Greens.  The Lib Dems took advantage of a split in the conservative vote and surged through the middle to keep the Tories in second.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘