Four council seats are being contested on Thursday, with two defences apiece for Reform and Labour. It's more or less a dead heat between these parties in national polls, so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in this latest round.
Results will appear below.
Penistone East, Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council
(Ref defence)
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after just eight weeks in the role. She had been elected on May 7, but stood down due to unspecified 'personal reasons'. Reform swept Labour aside in Barnsley that day, no mean feat considering the local authority had been in Labour hands for the entirety of its 52 year history. Labour had maintained control in the 2024 elections with 48 seats, but were reduced to just 11 as the red wall town turned turqoise. Penistone East resisted the Reform surge to a degree, with two of its three seats going to Labour (first and third). It has now lost its only Reform councillor with a reported by-election cost of £35,000 to local taxpayers. A tricky defence for sure, with a crowded ballot paper of eight jostling for position. Three new entries will join the main five parties - two independents and Restore Britain.
Karl - Ref HOLD
Rich - Lab GAIN
Harraby South, Cumberland Council
(Lab defence)
Another by-election triggered by a resignation for unspecified 'personal reasons'. The Labour incumbent won this seat in the inaugural Cumberland Council election of 2022. This curiously named authority lends its name to an ancient county that ceased to exist in 1974 when it was replaced by the new entity of Cumbria. While Cumbria still exists as the official county name, its county council was abolished and divided into two administrations for the 2022 election, one of which was Cumberland. Labour won control of Cumberland with relative ease and were by far the largest party with 30 seats to the Conservatives' seven. Labour have since lost five of those seats, through resignations and defections, but they will still remain safely in control should they lose this seat on Thursday. Reform, the Greens and Lib Dems are new entries, while there is no independent this time around.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - Con GAIN
Leen Valley, Nottingham City Council
(Lab defence)
We're used to seeing Reform and Green novices disregard their duties, but this by-election has been triggered by a lousy Labour councillor who failed to attend a single council meeting for more than six months. Despite being warned in writing, the councillor did not respond and was automatically disqualified from office. The hijab-wearing individual was elected in the 2023 election, but quit Labour six months later on account of Keir Starmer's position on Gaza. She went on to serve for two and a half years as an independent. Nottingham is about as red as it gets and we're not talking about the football team. Labour have been in control here since 1991, and a split in their ranks last year has not seriously impacted their huge majority. Six councillors left to form the 'Nottingham People's Alliance', who are standing in Leen Valley as their debut election. Reform and the Greens are also new entries. This ward has a huge Muslim population, but only Labour and the Nottingham People's Alliance are fielding Muslim candidates. For the sake of consistency, the latter will be referred to as 'Independents' in our results, as per all local groups.
Karl - Lab HOLD
Rich - Ind GAIN
St Neots Eynesbury, Huntingdonshire District Council
(Ref defence)
Another vacancy triggered by a departing Reform councillor, having only been elected seven weeks earlier. In keeping with the secretive nature of this week's resignations, his decision was put down to those elusive 'personal reasons'. There were three seats up for grabs here on May 7 and the incumbent topped the poll, with second place going to an independent and third place going to one of his Reform colleagues. Like Cumberland above, Huntingdonshire was an ancient English county that also ceased to exist in 1974. It was incorporated into the county of Cambridgeshire and relegated to district status. The Conservatives went on to control this new district between 1976 and 2022, when it fell into no overall control. It is currently administered by a minority coalition of Lib Dems and independents. The only new entry from May is the addition of a Labour candidate.
Karl - Ref HOLD
Rich - LDm GAIN
Richey leads Karl by seven points going into week 12, but the pair have put out an entirely different forecast, so there is lots of room for movement.
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