CANDIDATE'S REACTIONS

Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner have released video messages in response to their victories.  Keir Starmer was first up, releasing his before the official result had even become known.  This was a pre-recorded video due to the cancellation of the big unveiling.  Instead, the results were announced via email and the party's website, except the website crashed at around the time the announcement was due.

Sir Squeaky rattled on for more than eight minutes, mostly about coronavirus.  His leadership will surely provide great medicinal relief to insomniacs everywhere.

Keir Starmer (8min 39sec)

The new deputy leader was next up, speaking into her mobile phone.  Whereas Starmer comes across as slick and professional (albeit painfully dull), Angela Rayner's acceptance speech reveals the stark contrast between the two.  Her video is two minutes of blurry slurry cringe.

Angela Rayner (1min 52sec)

At the time of writing the only other candidate to release a personal video message has been deputy leadership candidate Richard Burgon.  As bubbly as ever, the grinning idiot was gracious in defeat and for once he avoided the socialist claptrap that had epitomized his comical campaign.  If Starmer has any sense he will send bungling Burgon packing to the backbenches.  Let's hope he doesn't.

Richard Burgon (1min 14sec)

Fourth placed deputy leadership candidate Ian Murray released a cheesy compilation video with captions, but he did not appear in it.  Rosena Allin-Khan, who finished second in the final round of the deputy contest, was very busy on Twitter today thanking her supporters in various tweets.  Lisa Nandy, who predictably picked up the wooden spoon in the main contest, tweeted a statement congratulating Starmer and Rayner.  She released her own thank you video two days ago after voting had ended.  Nandy will surely play a key role in Starmer's shadow cabinet.  Asides from her disastrous trans clash with Piers Morgan, she was easily the most consistent candidate during the campaign.

Heartfelt congratulations to @Keir_Starmer and @AngelaRayner. We will move forward together pic.twitter.com/zzfixL6s6H

— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) April 4, 2020

Rebecca Long-Bailey released a lengthy statement on her Facebook page minutes after the result was announced.  She screencapped the message and added it to a tweet a short time later (see below).  In the end Becky simply failed to inspire the membership in the same way that Corbyn did so decisively in both 2015 and 2016.  Her failure will undoubtedly lead to a period of hibernation for the hard left, but they will never go away entirely and nor will they relinquish their grip on the party easily.  Tough times are ahead for Starmer.

To those who supported our campaign, thank you for putting for your faith in me 🌹 pic.twitter.com/lNhkZ06QoF

— Rebecca Long-Bailey (@RLong_Bailey) April 4, 2020

Dawn Butler, who finished last in the deputy contest, had nothing to say.  Nothing at all.

LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS COMPARED

One of the headline facts about the Labour leadership result is that Keir Starmer received more votes than Jeremy Corbyn did when he was elected in 2015.  Both men received over 50 per cent of first preference votes meaning they were elected in the first round.  However, Corbyn's 2015 victory is still the most impressive because he was up against more candidates and received a greater share of the vote.  This is how the last three Labour leadership elections stack up...

2020

Keir Starmer 275,780 (56.2%)
Rebecca Long-Bailey 135,218 (27.6%)
Lisa Nandy 79,597 (16.2%)

2016

Jeremy Corbyn 313,209 (61.8%)
Owen Smith 193,229 (38.2%)

2015

Jeremy Corbyn 251,417 (59.5%)
Andy Burnham 80,462 (19.0%)
Yvette Cooper 71,928 (17.0%)
Liz Kendall 18,857 (4.5%)

LEADERSHIP RESULTS

Labour Leadership Election

First Round

Keir Starmer 275,780 (56.2%) - ELECTED

Rebecca Long-Bailey 135,218 (27.6%)

Lisa Nandy 79,597 (16.2%)

Deputy Leadership Election

First Round

Angela Rayner 192,168 (41.7%)
Richard Burgon 80,053 (17.3%)
Rosena Allin-Khan 77,351 (16.8%)
Ian Murray 61,179 (13.3%)
Dawn Butler 50,255 (10.9%) - ELIMINATED

Second Round

Angela Rayner 209,698 (46.5%)
Richard Burgon 88,664 (19.7%)
Rosena Allin-Khan 88,049 (19.5%)
Ian Murray 64,560 (14.3%) - ELIMINATED

Third Round

Angela Rayner 228,944 (52.6%) - ELECTED
Rosena Allin-Khan 113,858 (26.1%)
Richard Burgon 92,643 (21.3%)

LEADERSHIP VOTING (FINALLY) ENDS

Voting in the Labour leadership election finally closed today after five weeks of voting.  The absurdity of its length is perhaps best summed up by the fact last year's Tory leadership contest was wrapped up in six weeks from start to finish, including two weeks of voting.  The Labour contest has taken three months to complete.

The winner is expected to be announced on Saturday via press release.

Keir Starmer's odds have shortened even further since last week and he now stands odds on at 1/100 with all the major bookies.  Long-Bailey remains around the 33/1 mark while Lisa Nandy's odds have drifted to around 50/1.  Angela Rayner is expected to win the deputy leadership election.

Latest leadership odds (Ladbrokes)

Keir Starmer 1/100
Rebecca Long-Bailey 33/1
Lisa Nandy 50/1

Two days until we discover which loser wins

TWENTY REASONS LABOUR ARE SHIT

Ahead of the leadership election announcement a week from today, the following list was compiled by GQ magazine's George Chesterton.  Originally entitled the "20 Most Annoying Things About The Labour Leadership Contest", this is inspired...

1. Boasting about how working class they are.

If they were really working class, they wouldn’t be standing for leadership of the Labour Party.

2. Admitting they took drugs when they were students.

Nobody cares if they smoked something in Amsterdam.  And nobody cares if they didn’t, either.

3. Defending Jeremy Corbyn No1: "Jeremy inspired 300,000 people to join the Labour Party".

Perhaps, but does Labour really want to be the sloppy seconds of the Socialist Workers Party and the Stop The War Coalition?

4. "Labour will take action to tackle anti-Semitism in the party..."

...with an exciting new intake of MPs and party officials who have records of anti-Semitism.

5. Saying: "Tony Blair’s three victories don’t count because he wasn’t a proper socialist".

This is reason #173 why Labour is unelectable.

6. However, also saying: "We should be proud of Labour’s achievements under Tony Blair".

Make your mind up.

7. Defending Corbyn No2: "He smashed the post-war consensus".

No.  Thatcher did that for the other team in 1979.  Also, Corbyn lost.  Twice.

8. "We will defend our NHS".

You can’t, because you lost.  That’s why you need to win.  Jesus.

9. Insisting it would be a shame if the new leader is not a woman.

True, but not if they are all unelectable (OK, Lisa Nandy is pretty good.)

10. "Labour won’t win anything by lurching to the right".

Labour didn’t win anything by lurching to the left.

11. Defending Corbyn No3: "Jeremy was attacked by the media more than any other politician in history".

Not unfairly.

12. "Labour will always believe in comprehensive education".

Except for the children of Labour MPs.

13. Maintaining that Len McCluskey has an important role to play in the leadership contest.

Dominic Cummings may stop laughing by 2021.  May stop laughing.

14. Defending Corbyn No4: "Labour’s share of the vote in the 2017 general election was the largest since 1945".

Two words:  Theresa May.

15. Hating on Tory voters.

Hate really isn’t a great look.

16. Claiming that "our policies were popular on the doorstep".

Allow us to refer you to the general election.  And even if they were, doesn’t that make it worse?

17. Rating Jeremy Corbyn out of ten.

This is a totally pointless exercise, even if the answer is zero.

18. Saying they would stand up to Donald Trump.

They’ll never get the chance.

19. Defending Corbyn No5: "Jeremy’s legacy will last for generations".

Translation:  Labour will be out of power for generations.

20. Richard Burgon.

Reason 20 - no explanation required

DEAD CERT STARMER?

It would be no great surprise if you've forgotten about this, but a week tomorrow the new Labour leader will be announced.  It's only taken them four months to get around to it, but the end is finally in sight.  Exact details of how the announcement will be made are not clear as the planned conference has been cancelled due to coronavirus.  Suggestions that it will be done 'behind closed doors' has set alarm bells ringing among Labour moderates.  The election has already been dogged by claims that ballots have not been sent to newer members ie. those who have joined since the election and more likely to vote for Starmer.  There was also the question of an email that landed in member's inboxes urging them to vote for Long-Bailey - from none other than John McDonnell himself.

The bookies are clearly not impressed by suggestions of commie-style vote-rigging as they have now shortened Starmer's odds to outlandish figures.  He's been odds-on since the turn of New Year and was 1/20 three weeks ago.  He's now at 1/66 with Ladbrokes, although several bookies have got him at 1/100.  The best odds on a Long-Bailey win is 16/1 with Genting.  The best odds on a Nandy win are 18/1 with Spreadex.  Most bookies have Nandy slightly behind Long-Bailey, but Ladbrokes and Coral have them neck and neck.

Latest leadership odds (Ladbrokes)

Keir Starmer 1/66
Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy 33/1

If Starmer is really this far in front would Corbyn and co dare rig it?

DODGY DUDLEY VOTE ANNULLED

Labour has nullified the leadership and deputy leadership nominations from the Dudley North Constituency Labour Party.  The CLP met on February 7th to cast votes for its preferred candidates, but the meeting was mired in controversy.  More than twenty party members were told they couldn't vote, but were not given any reason.  Some were refused entry, while others were not.  Some members received invites to the meeting, others did not.  Crucially, in the final vote there were 96 votes cast, but reportedly only 90 eligible voters!

A lengthy and detailed complaint from local party member Abid Hussain was sent to Labour's regional office, leading to an investigation (see letter below, click to enlarge).

Hussain laid much of the blame on Cllr Shaukat Ali who was chairing the meeting.  Cllr Ali chaired the proceedings despite being a candidate in another vote held that evening, for a BAME vacancy on Labour's National Executive Council.  He was up against another candidate, but Mr Hussain claims that when the vote was announced the other candidate's name was mumbled.  This led to confusion with some members under the impression that only Cllr Ali was standing.

One wonders how many shambolic and clearly fixed votes are carried out in this way in CLPs up and down the country.  It certainly doesn't bode well for the leadership election results being announced next month.  With the hard left candidates struggling it appears that the only way they could win is via a huge fraud, but would the party dare?  Wouldn't it be too obvious?  Time will tell, and the party has certainly had plenty of time (three months and counting).

Incidentally, the two candidates nominated by Dudley North were Rebecca Long-Bailey and Richard Burgon.  Funny that.  The cancelled nominations will not affect their eligibility to stand as they had more than enough nominations to qualify for the ballot.  It does beg the question - why go to such lengths to ensure both were nominated when both had already qualified by the time Dudley North voted?  And finally, why has the party confirmed that no further action will be taken?

The nullified vote does not affect the eligibility of either candidate

McDONNELL'S BARE-FACED LIE

John McDonnell told Andrew Marr this morning that he'd "kept out of the leadership election".  Is that so John?  Funny that, because less than two weeks ago this email dropped into the inboxes of Labour members, endorsing Rebecca Long-Bailey.

The email sparked claims of a 'stitch-up' and with widespread reports of missing ballots alarm bells are ringing.  If the missing ballots are merely an innocent glitch then it makes a further mockery of this epic process.  McDonnell himself has said he'd support shorter leadership elections, but they can't get things right after three months (and counting).

In addition to his email, McDonnell also attended the recent 'Rally for Socialism', an event in support of the Long-Bailey and Burgon campaigns.  In the last week he has retweeted three Long-Bailey messages to his Twitter followers.  This is hardly 'keeping out of the leadership campaign' is it?

McDonnell's denial that the Corbyn regime wanted to 'crush' its opponents within the party is also laughable.  The dozens of moderate MPs driven out during the last Parliament can attest to that.

AUSTIN SLAMS CANDIDATES

Ian Austin

Former Labour MP Ian Austin quit the party in February last year and spent much of 2019 laying into Corbyn's hard left regime.  Unlike the others who quit around the same time, Austin went it alone and condemned Labour's lurch towards Remain.  He also stood down prior to the election, unlike the majority of the Change UK founders who guaranteed themselves a 'loss of office' golden handshake payment just by contesting their seats.  Austin is a cut above them.

This week he wrote in the Evening Standard and once again declared his strong opposition to the Corbyn project.  He also had strong words for the contenders hoping to succeed Corbyn.  Read on.

by Ian Austin

It has been a year since I walked out in disgust at the extremism that poisoned the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn.  Eight other Labour MPs joined me.

I grew up listening to my dad - a Jewish refugee from Czechoslovakia - tell me how his family had been murdered in the Holocaust, and joined the party as a teenager to fight racism.  I still can’t believe I had to resign to fight it too.  Leaving was a huge wrench and destroyed friendships that lasted decades, but I have never regretted making a stand.  If you won’t do what’s right on something like racism, what are you in politics for?

Some Corbyn supporters were furious - others celebrated, as if driving people away helps win elections.  But people in Dudley, where I was an MP, could not have been more supportive.  I was stopped in the street, while shopping or in cafés by people telling me I was right.

Most Labour MPs quietly agreed, but kept their heads down.  What sort of leadership is that?  They hoped the public would solve the problem for them.

In the general election they certainly did, handing Labour a huge defeat.  It would have been even worse if Nigel Farage had not let Labour scrape by in 30 seats.  Listening to people in the Midlands and the north, I think Labour could fall even further, but there’s no sign they’ve begun to face up to the scale of the problem.

Labour lost because of Corbyn, Brexit, extremism and racism and much more besides.  Huge victories in Hackney or Islington don’t help if you’re hammered in Dudley, Bassetlaw and Bolsover.

Many former Labour voters don’t just think their party didn’t listen.  It’s much worse than that.  They think Labour’s leaders look down on them, sneer at their patriotism, ignore their anguish about industries they’ve lost and dismiss concerns about immigration.

The leadership debates are a joke.  The contenders blame the party’s defeat on the media, attacks on Corbyn or even the voters.  They seem to have spent longer debating trans rights than housing or jobs.  I’ve not heard a word about welfare reform or massive questions such as equipping Britain for artificial intelligence and globalisation.  And while Corbyn is going, the extremists who joined to support him haven’t gone away and many of the new MPs are much more left-wing than the moderates they replaced.  Even Sir Keir Starmer - supposedly the credible candidate - loyally served in Corbyn’s top team, said he backed him “100 per cent”, campaigned to make him prime minister and praised his radicalism.

All he seems to talk about is unity - but voters don’t want to see him uniting with Corbyn and the cranks and conspiracy theorists.  They want the extremists and racists booted out.  Labour is on life support and so far, none of the candidates seem to even understand that, let alone have a plan to bring it back as a credible alternative.

Austin pictured with John Woodcock, another disgruntled former Labour MP

When Austin says people stopped and congratulated him on the streets of Dudley, he's not lying.  One only has to look at the election result in Dudley North to see that Black Country voters were furious with Corbyn's Labour.  Following the 2017 election Austin had one of the narrowest majorities in the country - just 22 votes - and was always destined to fall this time.  However, the Tories didn't just win Dudley North, they took that tiny Labour majority and turned it into an 11,533 Tory majority.  It's now classed as a safe blue seat, all the more remarkable for the fact the Conservatives had never won here previously.

Dudley North 2019 general election

Marco Longhi (Con) 23,134 (63.1%) +16.6%
Melanie Dudley (Lab) 11,601 (31.6%) -14.9%
Ian Flynn (Lib Dem) 1,210 (3.3%) +2.4%
Mike Harrison (Green) 739 (2.0%) +1.4%

How much Ian Austin's astonishing call to vote Conservative had to do with this huge swing is unclear, but it seems that as long as Corbynism lingers he isn't going to back off.

BROWN BACKS STARMER

It was no great surprise to see Gordon Brown stepping up to endorse Keir Starmer for the leadership today.  More surprising was Starmer's enthusiastic response.  He is currently enduring a barrage of criticism and abuse from the continuity Corbyn camp over his refusal to publish a comprehensive list of his campaign donors.  The hard left are convinced that he is being funded by Tony Blair and in Corbyn's Labour that name is toxic.  Blair himself has said he won't endorse a candidate in the leadership election for that very reason, although he and Brown have both backed Ian Murray for the deputy role.

Labour in government can do - and has done - incredible things.

Privileged to have the support of Gordon Brown. pic.twitter.com/3B7h0uknvJ

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) March 5, 2020

Brown's assessment of everything that followed his brief premiership is predictably grim, but the blunt truth is that austerity is rooted in his premiership and the ten years of reckless borrowing he oversaw as Chancellor.  Before he was kicked out of office he admitted that austerity measures were necessary, regardless of whether he continued as PM or not.  In his video endorsement of Starmer he also says that young people are being denied opportunities in education as if this is a Tory phenomenon - it was a Labour government that introduced tuition fees and a government of which he was an integral part.  Brown is morally bankrupt and has no place lecturing post-Brown Britain.

Also backing Keir Starmer for the leadership is this lovely chap. 

We've come to expect such vile stuff from remoaners, but this was so bad that Twitter removed it.  In a later tweet he bemoaned that his "favourite Costas barista just told me she is going to move back to Poland due to Brexit".  With latte-sipping middle class metropolitan-types you're going to take the north by storm Sir Keir!

SILLY ODDS ON STARMER

In recent days Keir Starmer's leadership odds have shortened by a whopping 100 per cent.  He was odds on at 1/10 six days ago, but is now odds on at 1/20 across all major bookmakers.  The bookies' certainty mirrors the desperation of the Long-Bailey/continuity Corbyn camp.  With voting already well underway it seems there is little that can be done to stop Starmer.  Barring some huge internal fraud it appears that the dullest man in Westminster is nailed on for victory.

Latest leadership odds (Ladbrokes)

Keir Starmer 1/20
Rebecca Long-Bailey 16/1
Lisa Nandy 25/1

LEFT PILE ON STARMER

Things are getting pretty desperate for Labour's hard left.  They are now resorting to conspiracy theories about who is funding Keir Starmer's campaign.  The ploy was set in motion last week when Rebecca Long-Bailey published a list of major donations received by her campaign.  With the exception of Momentum all these donations were from trade unions including several from the Unite union totalling more than £200,000 (see below).

Unite Union £218,500

Momentum £119,869

Communication Workers Union £52,609

Fire Brigades Union £6,263

Once this list was published, Long-Baily's team put the onus on the other candidates to follow suit.  Another voice calling on Nandy and Starmer to reciprocate was none other than Len McCluskey, whose Unite union pumped that whopping £200k into Long-Bailey's campaign.  No coincidence.  Long-Bailey and her team know that centrist Starmer is not being funded by the likes of hard left trade unions, so this is where it's a win-win for her campaign and the far left balloon heads backing her.  If Starmer publishes his list of donors it would probably reveal sources ripe for criticism, but if he refuses to publish it leads to damaging speculation.

That's where we are now.  With Lisa Nandy having published her own list, Starmer is now the odd one out and the hard left are piling on.  They have two hashtags currently trending on Twitter - #KnowTheFacts and #DarkMoneyStarmer.  Someone has come up with a template that is designed to bombard Starmer with the same tweet (see below examples).  Once again the name Blair is thrown in, that hard left bogeyman who just happens to be the only Labour leader to have won a general election in 46 years.

.@Keir_Starmer, are you being funded by Tony Blair or any of his organisations? #KnowtheFacts #DarkMoneyStarmerhttps://t.co/KMxy8qHzas

— Councillor Nick Childs (@NickCouncillor) February 27, 2020

.@Keir_Starmer, are you being funded by Tony Blair or any of his organisations? #KnowtheFacts #DarkMoneyStarmerhttps://t.co/465yUyaLUT

— Kerry-Anne Mendoza (@TheMendozaWoman) March 2, 2020

This is all sheer desperation, but once again it shows that even if Starmer wins he is going to have Corbynista extremists on his back from the off.

THE WEEK IN CARTOONS 23-29 FEB 2020

23.02.20 - Scott Clissold, Sunday Express

23.02.20 - Bob Moran, Sunday Telegraph

23.02.20 - Martin Rowson, Sunday Mirror

24.02.20 - Brian Adcock, Independent

24.02.20

25.02.20 - Morten Morland, The Times

25.02.20 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph

25.02.20 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph

25.02.20 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard

26.02.20 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail

26.02.20 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph

26.02.20 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph

27.02.20 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard

28.02.20 - Ben Jennings, Guardian

28.02.20 - Bob Moran, Daily Telegraph

29.02.20 - Morten Morland, Spectator

29.02.20 - Peter Brookes, The Times

SURVATION BLOW TO LEFT

Pollsters Survation have dealt a blow to the hard left with a new opinion poll for the Labour leadership.  Survation's first poll in mid-January gave Rebecca Long-Bailey a narrow lead over Keir Starmer, but their latest poll gives Starmer an eleven-point lead.  His lead is precisely half the margin shown in YouGov's most recent poll, but both polls are very close when it comes to the second round.  YouGov calls it 66-34 while Survation calls 64-36.

Survation leadership poll (21-24 Feb)

First round

Starmer 45%

Long-Bailey 34%

Nandy 21% (eliminated)

Second round

Starmer 64%

Long-Bailey 36%

(sample size 1,196)

With Richard Burgon miles behind in the deputy leadership race it appears there will be no continuity Corbyn candidates at the helm after the results are announced in five weeks time.  Jeremy Corbyn's decision to come off the fence and demand that Keir Starmer publishes details of his donors shows that desperation and realisation is beginning to sink in.  The loony left are making good capital over Starmer's refusal to publish the details and will naturally jump to all sorts of conclusions and conspiracy theories.

So far the above tweet has got eight retweets.  Long live the revolution!

NANDY SMASHES IT

Last night's leadership debate

It was a wobbly start for the outsider in last night's leadership debate on Sky, but Lisa Nandy came back strong.  While Long-Bailey and Starmer reeled off their well-rehearsed introductory speeches, Nandy was clearly unprepared and her head bobbed up and down as she constantly referred to the notes in front of her.  Her poor start was soon vanquished as the audience began to deliver a series of awkward questions.

Starmer, who had delivered easily the most polished and confident opening speech, stuttered and stammered his way horribly through a couple of questions.  Long-Bailey, now sporting a hairdo that made her look more like a character from Desperate Housewives than a potential political leader, had little impact throughout the debate.  At one point she insulted the intelligence of northern Brexit voters, claiming they were mistaken in their 'belief' that Labour were trying to reverse Brexit.  It was not a question of 'belief' dear, the facts were there for all to see!  She later gave us an insight into her parenting skills - or lack of them.  An elderly blind woman in the audience asked the candidates for examples of how she could interpret their personalities.  Long-Bailey announced that she was a strong northern lass who didn't take any nonsense from anyone.  In the very next sentence she referred to her little boy and how when he gets home from school she waits on him hand and foot, giving in to his every demand.  Contradiction asides, what a horrible little twat he's going to grow up to be.

One third of the audience was made up of Labour members, another third Labour voters and a third former Labour voters.  One of the Labour members got very up tight about anti-Semitism, denouncing the Chief Rabbi as a Tory and suggesting it was all a fantasy concocted by right wingers.  At this point Nandy jumped in and took control of the situation.  However, her assessment led to the most exciting exchange of the entire debate as a flustered Keir Starmer lost his cool.  Sadly, even when he loses it he still comes across excruciatingly dull.  Watch their spat below.

At the end of the debate presenter Sophy Ridge asked the audience to raise their hands as to who they thought had won the debate.  A handful chose Starmer, a handful chose Long-Bailey.  The overwhelming majority chose Nandy, the candidate widely expected to come a distant third in this epic contest.  Most viewers will probably have agreed that none of them were particularly likeable or electable.  The future's bleak for Labour, regardless of who wins.

STARMER IN THE FIRST ROUND?

YouGov's latest poll of Labour members has Keir Starmer winning outright for the first time.  

Starmer has significantly extended his lead in each of the three YouGov polls to date, but the only other poll carried out suggested a narrow victory for Rebecca Long-Bailey.  The Survation poll, carried out last month, took its findings from a much larger sample than YouGov.  It found that Long-Bailey would have a very slender advantage in the final round.  Survation are not mugs, they correctly predicted a Leave vote in 2016 when most pollsters (including YouGov) had Remain winning.  They also correctly predicted the Scottish independence referendum and all three of the last general elections.

This is how all four leadership polls stack up.

First round

YouGov (20-25 Feb)       YouGov (13-15 Jan)        Survation (8-13 Jan)        YouGov (21-31 Dec)

Sample: 1,323                Sample: 1,005                Sample: 3,835                 Sample: 1,059

Starmer 53%                 Starmer 46%                Long-Bailey 42%            Starmer 36%

Long-Bailey 31%           Long-Bailey 32%           Starmer 37%                  Long-Bailey 23%

Nandy 16%                    Phillips 11%                  Phillips 9%                     Phillips 12%

                                       Nandy 7%                      Nandy 7%                       Thornberry 7%

                                       Thornberry 3%              Thornberry 1%                Nandy 6%

Final round run-off

Note:  There would not be a run-off if Starmer received more than 50% in the first round, but as 53% is within the margin of error YouGov has included second preference findings

Starmer 66%                  Starmer 63%               Long-Bailey 51%              Starmer 61%

Long-Bailey 34%             Long-Bailey 37%          Starmer 49%                   Long-Bailey 39%

ODDS SHORTEN ON PLANK

Voting is now finally underway in the Labour leadership and deputy leadership contests.  This final stage in the epic saga will last six weeks.  Despite confirming that he is about as exciting as a plank of wood (see video, below), Keir Starmer's odds have shortened to record numbers.  He's been odds on with most bookies since New Year and those odds have gradually shortened as the contest has dragged on.  He is now at 1/10 with Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral.  Odds on a hard left victory have lengthened with Rebecca Long-Bailey now on 10/1, while Lisa Nandy's odds have shortened to 12/1.

Latest leadership odds (Ladbrokes)

Keir Starmer 1/10
Rebecca Long-Bailey 10/1
Lisa Nandy 12/1

FAR LEFT RATTLED

With Keir Starmer odds on leadership favourite, no sign of a surge for continuity Corbyn and voting set to open on Friday, the far left have organised a rally in London next week.  The imaginatively titled 'Rally for Socialism' will feature the headline speakers of McDonnell, Abbott, Burgon and Lavery.  What a line-up!  If this is the best they've got to offer no wonder the Tories are laughing.

Guest speakers include four of the new intake of hard left Corbynista MPs - all of which are backing Long-Bailey and Burgon in the leadership contests, naturally.  Sadly for Leicester East's MP, whoever designed the poster spelled her name wrong.  It's Webbe, not Webb.  More special guests are to be confirmed, presumably they are waiting to see if Billy Bragg can make it across from his lush Dorset pad.  It's free entry, but comrades are urged to make a £20 donation.  Does it go towards Dickie Burgon's leaflet fund?

MOST SHARED: WEEK 252

Nominations are in, the ballot papers are being printed and we'll find out who the next Labour leader is in seven weeks!  From start to finish the election process will have taken a mammoth four months to complete.  When the Conservatives elected Boris Johnson last year the process took just six weeks.

This BTLP original was shared 2,724 times via the Facebook page.

GRACIOUS NUGEE

Emily Thornberry released the following statement on Saturday in response to her failure to get on the Labour leadership ballot.

Click to enlarge

While Lady Nugee was very courteous towards the remaining candidates, only one of them paid tribute in return.  Lisa Nandy wrote on Twitter:  "Our leadership debate isn’t going to be as interesting, passionate or fun without Emily Thornberry.  She brought so much to this debate.  She’s a true fighter, a tough opponent, and a good friend".

Perhaps no great surprise to see any kind words from Long-Bailey after recent diatribes from Nugee during the campaign.

Further reading
Catfight In Nottingham
Nugee Feud Continues