Showing posts with label Brecon & Radnorshire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brecon & Radnorshire. Show all posts

Thursday, 1 August 2019

BRECON & RADNORSHIRE UPDATES

03:00

Signing off for the night.  This is the fourth time I've done the overnight coverage this year, so please do feel free to show your appreciation by tapping the donate button on the right hand side.  Thank you and goodnight.

RESULT

Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) 13,826 (43.5%) +14.4%
Chris Davies (Con) 12,401 (39.0%) -9.6%
Des Parkinson (Brexit) 3,331 (10.5%) +10.5%
Tom Davies (Lab) 1,680 (5.3%) -12.4%
Lady Lily (Loony) 334 (1.0%) +1.0%
Liz Phillips (UKIP) 242 (0.8%) -0.6%

02:55

Ed Davey just said that the result shows that the people of mid-Wales don't want a no-deal Brexit.  Hang on sunshine, you and your party claimed victory after the European elections by combining Remain party votes.  So by your own logic didn't you actually lose tonight?  If we add the Tory vote to the Brexit Party vote...

02:46

So there we have it.  The Parliamentary arithmetic moves even further towards Remain, removing a Leave MP and replacing him with a Remain MP.  If the Tories had ditched Davies perhaps they'd have held the seat, but they would surely have done so if they had cut a deal with the Brexit Party.  The Lib-Dem's Remain pact with Plaid Cymru and the Greens won the day for them.

It's interesting to note that the Brexit Party appeared to be less damaging to the Tories than the Lib Dems were to the Labour vote.  The Labour vote more than halved from almost 18% in 2017 to barely enough to save their deposit.  It's another hugely embarrassing night for Labour.

02:31

RESULT

Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) 13,826 (43.5%) +14.4%
Chris Davies (Con) 12,401 (39.0%) -9.6%
Des Parkinson (Brexit) 3,331 (10.5%) +10.5%
Tom Davies (Lab) 1,680 (5.3%) -12.4%
Lady Lily (Loony) 334 (1.0%) +1.0%
Liz Phillips (UKIP) 242 (0.8%) -0.6%

02:28

Labour have saved their deposit by 0.3%.  Jammy.

02:27

RESULT

Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) 13,826
Chris Davies (Con) 12,401
Des Parkinson (Brexit) 3,331
Tom Davies (Lab) 1,680
Lady Lily (Loony) 334
Liz Phillips (UKIP) 242

02:25

This is hilarious, no media outlet is carrying the result because they don't have any Welsh speaking correspondents.

02:21

Lib Dems have won, but the presiding officer gave some results in English and some in Welsh so only Welsh speakers know the full result.

02:14

The declaration is expected in the next five minutes.

02:13

Lib Dems are cock-a-hoop, so it's clear who the winners are.  It will be interesting to see by how much they've won, what happens to the Brexit Party and crucially, how badly Labour have performed.

02:09

Finally she arrives!

02:04

Hopefully the Lib Dem candidate (and probable winner) actually turns up.  Still no sign of her.

02:01

Result expected shortly, apparently.

02:00

About an hour ago I said this photo was a bad idea for this precise reason...


01:57

Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David admits his party may lose their deposit.

01:55

Tory candidate Chris Davies arrives at the count.  One person boos.

01:53

Sky reporter just mentioned the word "re-count".  If that happens I'm off to bed.

01:41

Interesting point...


01:37

Sky reporter tweets...


01:32

If, as expected, the Lib Dems win this contest, should we dare to add up the Tory/Brexit/UKIP votes and say that Leave won???

01:30

ITV reporter:  Brexit Party are happy with their likely third place and not worried about 'splitting the Brexit vote'.  Their aim is to remind the Tories they're there and willing to 'take them apart' if they don't deliver Brexit.

01:27

Looking at multiple sources it looks as if the parties will finish in this order

1)  Lib Dems
2)  Conservatives
3)  Brexit Party
4)  Labour (hopefully losing their deposit)

01:25

It sounds as if things are swinging slightly in favour of a Lib Dem victory.

01:17

Don't know who this guy is, but he claims to have letters after his name and has a very sound grasp of Corbynite mentality...


01:15

A very bitter Corbynista tweets...


01:13

More talk about that potentially lost Labour deposit...


01:10

Random Remainer...


01:07

Labour candidate Tom Davies:  “We know certainly from speaking to a lot of Labour voters, that some Labour voters feel that from looking at the previous history of the constituency and looking at the polling data from what we had beforehand that it’s safer to vote the Lib Dems so that Chris Davies doesn’t get back in”.

01:05

A UKIP voice...


01:03

Ouch!


01:01

Dr Ed Poole from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre says this is the highest turnout in a parliamentary by-election since Winchester in 1997.

00:59

This is probably not the greatest idea for a photo op...


00:57

Brexit Party candidate Des Parkinson told BBC Wales: "It looks as if we're running third at the moment.  Coming third is what we thought would happen when we arrived here this evening.  We've only been in existence for three and a half months".

 00:53

If it's as close as many are suggesting the Tories will be kicking themselves tomorrow that they did not ditch their disgraced candidate and replace him with another Brexiteer.  A deal with the Brexit Party would surely have guaranteed them victory either way.

00:45

Oh dear...


00:42

Lib Dem source tells Sky:  "The Labour vote is in deposit losing territory.  We will have been massive beneficiaries of that.  Lots bringing up Corbyn as a reason for switching to us on the doorsteps - more than just a tactical squeeze".

00:39

Labour candidate Tom Davies is speaking to Sophy Ridge on Sky.  Sophy is giving him some tricky questions, but he's handling it well.  Impressive posture, but he's freely admitting that Labour voters have largely drifted to the Lib Dems.

00:30

Apparently the Labour candidate has just arrived.  Not so much as a whimper.

00:29

Turnout confirmed at 59.72%.

00:28

Turnout is reportedly 59%.  That's impressive.  In Peterborough it was 48%.

00:25

The Monster Raving Loony Party make a low key entrance to the count...


00:22

Chris Wilkins, the former director of strategy for Theresa May: "I think at this stage of the evening it probably looks like a Liberal Democrats gain, but maybe with a smaller majority than they would have hoped.  I think that will allow the new prime minister to say that he has managed to get the Conservative vote up and squeeze the Brexit Party vote".

00:19


00:17

Big cheers at the count as a loony walks in.  No, it's not Jeremy Corbyn.  It's the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate.

00:15

Lid Dem failed leadership candidate Ed Davey:  "Every ballot box looks tight".

00:11

Taking in lots of different sources it appears that the Tory vote has held up more than expected and they could push the Lib Dems close.

00:07

BBC reporter tweets...


23:59


23:57

It just beggars belief that the Tories chose to stick with their disgraced candidate...


23:51

The constituency is so huge that the ballot boxes have apparently travelled an estimated 1,800 miles in total to get to the count in Llanelwedd.

23:48

ITV journalist:  A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th (but keeping their deposit).

23:44

It's taken almost one hour and 45 minutes to get all the ballot boxes in.  Thankfully the delay is due to the size of the constituency and rural roads (this isn't Peterborough again folks).

23:41


23:39

BBC reporter suggests Tories/Brexit Party vying for second place...


23:36

The exciting scene gripping the cattle shed...


23:33

Not good news going forward for the Brexit Party.  Their survival depends on whether or not they can do a deal with the Tories in those crucial Brexit betrayal seats in the Labour heartlands...


23:26


23:24

Conservative officials at the count are predicting a close vote tonight.  According to the BBC, one source said: "Tighter than we thought it was going to be".

 23:22


23:18

Ex-Tory and Ex-Change UK's Heidi Allen actually campaigned for the Lib Dems in this election.  She's not yet signed up, but it sounds like there's a strong possibility she'll follow Chuka to party number three...


23:15

Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine tells Sky News the party is "quietly optimistic".

23:13

Picture from the count.  Half expecting a cow to wander into the background.


23:08

Doesn't this look more like Brexit Party blue?  Hmm, crafty.  Perhaps if the Tories had done a deal with the Brexit Party (like the Lib Dems did with Plaid) they wouldn't have to resort to things like this...



23:05

This Lib Dem doesn't sound too confident...


23:01

Estimates for a declaration are currently somewhere between 2am and 3am.

22:59

BBC correspondent just questioned whether Labour would keep its deposit.  That this is even mooted shows how bad things are for Corbyn and co.

22:56

Tory chairman tweets (and he's spot on)


22:52


22:49

WalesOnline reports:  This is a tricky election for Labour.  It’s a seat they were never going to win.  However, those who have been on the ground say their traditional Labour voters are backing the Lib Dems.  Not because of Brexit or Jeremy Corbyn as you may expect but “overwhelmingly” because they are angry at Chris Davies’ criminal conviction.

22:46

Confident, but slightly batty Tory...


22:41

Lib Dem source tells the BBC they are "confident they can do this" but it is "not in the bag".

22:36

BBC correspondent asks whether UKIP could finish below the Monster Raving Loony Party.  Perhaps they should be asking whether Labour could finish below them.

22:30

Locals have said the Lib Dems sent a lot of activists to help win the seat.  They told Sky News the area was “swarming” with them.

22:27

The count is taking place at the same venue as the Royal Welsh Show and it does look more like a cattle market than an election count!


22:23


22:18

The results of the last ten elections in Brecon as follows (with majorities in brackets)

2017: Conservative (8,036)
2015: Conservative (5,102)
2010: Lib Dem (3,747)
2005: Lib Dem (3,905)
2001: Lib Dem (751)
1997: Lib Dem (5,097)
1992: Conservative (130)
1987: Liberal (56)
1985: Liberal (559)
1983: Conservative (8,764)
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BRECON BY-ELECTION LATEST ODDS

As Brecon and Radnorshire goes to the polls the Lib Dems are odds on favourites to take the seat from the Tories.  This would not be a great result for Brexit as the incumbent is a member of the ERG and it would replace a Leave voting MP with a Remain voter.  The Tories could have potentially avoided this scenario if they had ditched the disgraced Chris Davies with another Brexiteer candidate (and then agreed a deal with the Brexit Party, as the Lib Dems did with Plaid).  If, as expected, the Lib Dems take this seat then the Tories have only themselves to blame.

Latest odds

Ladbrokes - Lib Dems 1/8, Tories 5/1, Brexit Party 100/1, Labour 100/1
Unibet - Lib Dems 1/10, Tories 5/1, Brexit Party 40/1, Labour 50/1
Coral - Lib Dems 1/8, Tories 5/1, Brexit Party 100/1, Labour 100/1
bet365 - Lib Dems 1/9, Tories 5/1, Brexit Party 80/1, Labour 500/1

Brecon & Radnorshire by-election candidates
Chris Davies (Con)
Tom Davies (Lab)
Jane Dodds (LD)
Des Parkinson (Brexit)
Liz Phillips (UKIP)
Lady Lily Pink (Loony)

2017 General Election result

Chris Davies (Con) 20,081
James Gibson-Watt (LD) 12,043
Dan Lodge (Lab) 7,335
Kate Heneghan (Plaid) 1,299
Peter Gilbert (UKIP) 576
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Wednesday, 31 July 2019

GALLOWAY'S WELSH BLUNDER

The left's most self-righteous George Galloway appeared on his favourite media outlet today and took aim at his old party.  Speaking to Russia Today he claimed that Labour would take a hammering in tomorrow's Parliamentary by-election in mid-Wales, saying its vote would "collapse" on the back of the party's new-found Remain stance.  Galloway quite rightly denounced the First Minister's own anti-Brexit position, which is directly at odds with how Wales voted in 2016.  The former Labour MP said that by calling for Brexit to be overturned Mark Drakeford is saying that he knows best and Welsh Brexit voters were "stupid".  He also links Drakeford's Remain posturing to an astonishing poll this week that suggests that Labour support has now fallen behind the Tories in Wales.

However, while George claims to know it all and is never wrong, he got a key detail horribly wrong during his interview.  On talking down Labour's chances in the by-election he bizarrely refers to Denbighshire (north Wales), when the election is taking place in Radnorshire (mid-Wales).  In fact Denbigh is more than 120 miles from Brecon!  We tweeted George to point out his glaring mistake, but predictably he didn't reply.

Watch Galloway's interview with RT below.

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Thursday, 25 July 2019

ONE WEEK TO GO IN BRECON

One week today voters go to the polls in the mid-Wales seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.  The by-election was forced by the successful recall petition against incumbent Tory MP Chris Davies.  Davies had been convicted of false expenses claims and was brought down by 19% of his constituents, almost double the required 10% threshold.  Earlier this year Fiona Onasanya became the first MP to be sacked by recall petition, receiving 28%.

To further compound his disgrace, Davies sought re-selection as the Tory candidate.  Astonishingly the local Conservative association agreed to give him another chance and he was duly re-selected for the August 1st by-election.  With the Lib Dems chasing the seat and having made an electoral pact with other Remain parties this cowardly act could potentially have devastating implications for the Parliamentary arithmetic on Brexit.  By re-selecting the disgraced Davies the Tories have surrendered the constituency, ensuring that the Remainers gain another vote in Parliament, effectively two votes because there will be one less Brexiteer (Davies was a member of the ERG).

Davies currently holds an 8,000 majority, but historically the seat has been a close fought contest between the Tories and Liberals and has flip-flopped between the two parties over the last 40 years.  However, this time around the Lib-Dems have huge advantages.  Firstly, and most importantly, they are up against a disgraced incumbent.  Secondly, they have made a pact to ensure that other Remain parties are not standing in this election (no Plaid Cymru or Greens).  Thirdly, the presence of the Brexit Party will split the remaining Tory vote and hand Brecon to them on a plate.

The chances of the Brexit Party coming through the middle and surprising everybody to actually win the seat are slim.  It's not a big Leave seat (like Peterborough, remember), returning a 52% Leave vote in 2016.  Labour won't get a look in here and could potentially finish fourth.

Brecon & Radnorshire by-election candidates

Chris Davies (Con)
Tom Davies (Lab)
Jane Dodds (LD)
Des Parkinson (Brexit)
Liz Phillips (UKIP)
Lady Lily Pink (Loony)

2017 General Election result

Chris Davies (Con) 20,081
James Gibson-Watt (LD) 12,043
Dan Lodge (Lab) 7,335
Kate Heneghan (Plaid) 1,299
Peter Gilbert (UKIP) 576
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Saturday, 22 June 2019

BRECON & RADNORSHIRE RECALL

The third Parliamentary by-election of the year will take place after Tory MP Chris Davies was sacked via recall petition.  Earlier this year Labour's Fiona Onasanya made history by becoming the first MP to lose her seat in this manner.  Davies had been convicted of making false expenses claims and, like Onasanya, he refused to give up his seat on the Westminster gravy train.  Good riddance.  These two MPs epitomise everything that is wrong with our political system today.  In years gone by an MP might have the decency to stand down following a criminal conviction, but not any more.  Shameful.

Davies was brought down by 19% of his electorate, easily surpassing the 10% required in order to get rid of him.  This wasn't quite as impressive as the 28% who signed in Peterborough, but the result is the same.  We now await a by-election date.

Unlike Onasanya, Davies has indicated he wants to contest the seat again as the Tory candidate.  A recalled MP can rightfully stand again in the resulting by-election, but the Tories would be mad to re-select him after such a strong turnout against him.

2017 General Election result

Christopher Davies (Con) 20,081
James Gibson-Watt (Lib-Dem) 12,043
Dan Lodge (Lab) 7,335
Kate Heneghan (Plaid) 1,299
Peter Gilbert (UKIP) 576

In the 2016 EU referendum Brecon & Radnorshire returned a 52% Leave vote.  The Brexit Party has not yet indicated it will stand.  To do so will almost certainly gift the seat to the Lib Dems and this would replace a Leave vote in the Commons with yet another Remainer.  Davies was a member of the pro-Brexit ERG (European Research Group).  Pro-Remain Plaid Cymru have already suggested it may not contest the seat in order to boost the pro-Remain Lib Dems.  The bookies have the Lib Dems as 'odds-on' to win the seat, but then they had the Brexit Party as 'odds-on' in Peterborough.  Take note Labour - there aren't many Muslim postal votes to be had here!

The position of Brecon & Radnorshire in Wales
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