COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.07.26

We had a county-wide election this week, but it wasn't for the council.  The position of Police and Crime Commissioner in Norfolk was up for grabs...

Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner

Colin Sutton (Ref) 32,647 (26.7%) New

Matthew Taylor (Con) 18,348 (15.0%) -18.9%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 16,907 (13.8%) -2.0%

Marcus Pearcey (Ind) 16,402 (13.4%) New

Beth Jones (Lab) 14,192 (11.6%) -23.6%

Mark Buckton (Res) 13,319 (10.9%) New

Christopher Brown (LDm) 10,499 (8.6%) -6.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Labour won this election in 2024, with a relatively narrow victory over the Conservatives.  This time the result wasn't even close and Labour crashed to fifth.  Police and Crime Commissioners are being abolished in two years time, with the responsibilities being transferred into the remit of elected mayors.  This announcement last year led to a backlash from Norfolk's PCC, who quit Labour in anguish, accusing the government of a 'lack of consultation'.  She continued in the role as an independent, before vacating the post last month due to a family illness.  She also left her role as a district councillor (see below).  There were a few new faces on the PCC ballot paper this time, all stumping up £500 for the privilege.  All four parties saved their deposits last time, as it proved this time around - every single candidate surpassed the required five per cent mark in order to get their deposit back.  This included Restore Britain, who were hoping for a decent result as Rupert Lowe's constituency falls entirely within the catchment area.  Any hopes they may have had of denting Reform's chances were not realised, as Reform won with an impressive majority of 14,299 (compared to Labour's 1,888 majority in 2024).  Reform's first ever PCC is highly respected former detective Colin Sutton, who led various high profile murder investigations during a long career.  This has been a costly election to the taxpayer, with a bill of £2million that on a 17.1 per cent turnout worked out at more than £16 per vote!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

There were also eight council seats to be decided this week, all of which fell inside England and all but one sit across a central belt from Staffordshire in the west to Norfolk in the east.  The only exception is a seat in the Rushmoor borough of Hampshire.

Dereham Toftwood, Breckland District Council

Con: 458 (45.8%) -1.7%

Ref: 369 (36.9%) New

Lab: 172 (17.2%) -35.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who simultaneously vacated her post as Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner (see above).  This ward was a straight head-to-head last time between Labour and the Conservatives.  Reform had won all three of the previous council by-elections held in Breckland, but their Turkish candidate could not persuade enough voters in this semi-rural ward to swing it for her party.  She did however enjoy a huge swing from Labour that dumped the incumbent party in last place and delivered a Conservatives gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Ramsey & Bury, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 506 (29.7%) -17.3%

Ind: 417 (24.5%) New

Con: 412 (24.2%) -5.2%

LDm: 126 (7.4%) +0.6%

Grn: 123 (7.2%) +1.2%

Lab: 118 (6.9%) -4.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform gained this seat from the Conservatives in last year's local elections, but the winner recently stood down, citing 'personal circumstances'.  Last year's defeated Conservative sought to get her former seat back at this by-election, but slipped to third place.  She was narrowly beaten by an independent, who took a significant swing from Reform.  Labour finished third here last year, but collect the wooden spoon this time around.  No Burnham bounce here!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Kidlington West, Cherwell District Council

LDm: 1,028 (58.8%) +13.7%

Ref: 331 (18.9%) -4.3%

Con: 232 (13.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 158 (9.0%) -5.4%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem incumbent, who gained this seat from the Conservatives in 2021.  She resigned for 'personal reasons', primarily to spend more time with her family.  The Lib Dems were very keen to hold here, as their coalition majority hung by a thread.  They did so with ease, garnering three times as many votes as second placed Reform, while their coalition partners the Greens picked up the wooden spoon.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Old Catton, Norfolk County Council

Con: 973 (34.6%) +8.5%

Grn: 921 (32.7%) +14.0%

Ref: 561 (19.9%) -10.1%

Lab: 147 (5.2%) -10.6%

LDm: 100 (3.6%) -5.6%

Res: 98 (3.5%) New

Loon: 13 (0.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent less than four weeks after he was elected in May, citing 'poor health'.  Did he not expect to win?  A very poor show that left his colleague with what turned out to be an insurmountable task of holding the seat.  The former Conservative councillor selected by Reform was heavily defeated by her old party, while the Greens pushed her into third.  This was the first ever local election fought in the name of Restore Britain, but it was disastrous.  Their candidate pulled out shortly after the nomination papers were handed in, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.  It's not going well is it, Rupert?

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Grn: 664 (41.2%) +3.4%

Ref: 479 (29.7%) +2.9%

Lab: 213 (13.2%) +3.7%

Con: 208 (12.9%) -3.2%

LDm: 37 (2.3%) New

YrP: 11 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

As often tends to be the case with the Banana Republic of Peterborough, this by-election was mired in controversy before a single vote had been cast.  Triggered by the resignation of a young native lady who was elected as a Labour councillor in the 2024 elections, she quit the party a year later after accusing her comrades of 'sustained bullying and marginalisation'.  Why was she targeted?  She simply called for CCTV to be installed in the city's taxis.  This led to her facing accusations of 'racism' from Muslim comrades, who also tarred her family with the same brush.  In resigning her seat recently, she accused the council of 'systemic cover-ups', which Labour's Muslim council leader denied.  As Peterborough wards go, this one is not overtly Muslim, but it did opt for the Greens in May.  An independent candidate who stood here in that election dropped out, while there was a rare outing for the Fruit and Nutters.  The Corbyn shitshow finished last with just 11 votes, while the party that stole their far left thunder roared into the lead and garnered more than three times the number of votes received by Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Wellington, Rushmoor Borough Council

Lab: 408 (42.1%) +9.2%

Con: 199 (20.5%) -3.0%

Ref: 196 (20.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 118 (12.2%) New

LDm: 49 (5.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The retirement of the Labour incumbent triggered this contest.  He had served as a Rushmoor councillor on and off since 1976 and his successor scored an impressive hold for a party that is not used to expanding their vote share and moving further ahead of their rivals.  An independent candidate who stood here in May did not stand this time.  This area was historically a Conservative stronghold, but this all changed in 2024 when Labour took control of the council and won the local Aldershot Westminster constituency for the first time in history.  Labour lost outright control of the council following several defections last year, but they remain the largest party and run it as a minority administration.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Himley & Swindon, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 298 (43.2%) -21.0%

Ref: 187 (27.1%) New

Ind: 129 (18.7%) New

Lab: 28 (4.1%) New

Grn: 22 (3.2%) New

Ind: 16 (2.3%) -12.0%

LDm: 10 (1.4%) -20.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 82-year-old Tory incumbent, who had been council leader as recently as 2024.  He was re-elected to this ward in 2023, having bested the only two other candidates - a Lib Dem and an independent.  It was a much more crowded ballot paper this time and the votes were dispersed very thinly in this sparsely populated ward on the edge of the Black Country.  The Conservatives managed to hold off Reform by more than 100 votes.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Manor, Stafford Borough Council

Lab: 481 (36.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 414 (31.2%) New

Con: 237 (17.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 197 (14.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

As with the previous seat, this was triggered by the death of the 82-year-old incumbent.  The longstanding councillor had been re-elected most recently in 2023, when she topped the poll with both ward seats up for grabs.  She and her Labour colleague easily saw off the Conservatives, while a solitary Green candidate collected the wooden spoon.  The Greens finished last again this time, while there was a significant swing from both Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Richey has extended his lead further, with Karl suffering another poor performance.  Karl has now dropped below the 50 per cent accuracy rate and at best can only close the gap next week as there are only five by-elections.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.03.26

Five council seats were up for grabs this week, with one Labour defence taking place in Staffordshire.  That Tamworth by-election was a tough one to call, with both Reform and the Greens debuting in a historically Tory ward that was gained by Labour three years ago.  We said Labour wouldn't hold and they finished last, with the insurgent parties taking the top two spots.  We predicted a rare Tory gain here, but it was an impressive Reform gain, topping the poll with more than twice the number of votes as the second placed Greens.

Over in Essex, Reform narrowly gained a second seat at the hands of an independent group affiliated with the Greens.  The margin was 37 votes, but a win's a win.  We predicted an Independent hold.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Reform on the night, with a worrying defeat for the party in County Durham - a county council they control.  We thought Reform had got enough to hold, but astonishingly Labour stormed back in one of their old northern strongholds.  It wasn't even close as Reform slumped to second and Labour gained their first council seat since May 2025.  The result was the first to declare on the night, which led some morons on social media to celebrate a tad early.  They went quiet after the party gained two seats elsewhere, and overall the narrative around a burst bubble was opened up to ridicule - Reform finished either first or second in all five available seats.

As we expected, it was a routine hold for the Greens in their West Country stamping ground, while a free-for-all vacancy went to the Conservatives in Kent (not Reform as we predicted).

One out of five correct this week, it's just a blip!

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ref: 554 (30.7%) New

Ind: 517 (28.7%) -26.3%

Lab: 366 (20.3%) +4.4%

Con: 311 (17.2%) -12.6%

LDm: 55 (3.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Murton, Durham County Council

Lab: 1,004 (50.6%) +17.6%

Ref: 786 (39.6%) -4.5%

Grn: 95 (4.8%) New

Con: 61 (3.1%) -2.0%

LDm: 38 (1.9%) -2.3%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Hextable. Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 600 (38.9%) +19.3%

Ref: 406 (26.3%) New

LDm: 367 (23.8%) New

Ind: 108 (7.0%) New

Grn: 62 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Thrupp, Stroud District Council

Grn: 540 (67.5%) +3.1%

Ref: 132 (16.5%) New

Con: 58 (7.3%) -10.3%

Lab: 48 (5.8%) -12.3%

LDm: 22 (2.8%) New

UKIP: 2 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Spital, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 719 (44.6%) New

Grn: 337 (20.4%) New

Con: 319 (19.4%) -18.9%

Lab: 273 (16.6%) -23.4%

Ref GAIN from Lab

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 11.12.25

Nine seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with Labour on the defence in two.  As we predicted, they lost both seats.  In Darlington we saw either the Tories or Reform making the gain, with the SNP the likely winner in West Lothian.  Reform actually took both seats as newcomers, including a groundbreaking victory north of the border in which they took their first Scottish council seat.

Labour were pushed to fourth in Darlington, with more than half the votes cast for Reform.  Labour slid to a distant third in West Lothian, with Reform and the SNP way out in front.  Apparently, the SNP fielded a 'non-binary' candidate in this election, which probably helped Reform no end.  It was a bad night for the SNP, as they fell to the Lib Dems in the other Scottish seat.

It was another crushing set of results for Labour, whose vote tally ducked down into double digits in three seats.  They finished last in four seats and could not finish any higher than third place anywhere.

It wasn't a great night for the Tories either, who lost two of the four seats they were defending.  They slumped to third in Devon and missed out on a hold by just ten votes in Lincolnshire.  Reform were the victors in the latter, also gaining another seat on the same council by an even slimmer margin of two votes.  A win's a win, and with four gains on the night there is no doubt which party will be the happiest.

Penyrheol, Caerphilly County Borough Council

Pld: 956 (60.1%) +6.3%
Ref: 422 (26.5%) New

Lab: 114 (7.2%) -24.4%

Con: 66 (4.3%) -10.4%

LDm: 32 (2.0%) New

Pld HOLD

Red Hall & Lingfield, Darlington Borough Council

Ref: 341 (37.7%) New

Con: 157 (17.3%) -22.5%

LDm: 157 (17.3%) New

Lab: 152 (16.8%) -37.1%

Grn: 89 (9.8%) +3.6%

Ind: 9 (1.0%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Seaton, East Devon District Council

LDm: 789 (41.3%) +19.2%

Ref: 565 (29.6%) New

Con: 400 (20.9%) -5.6%

Ind: 156 (8.2%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

LDm: 925 (40.4%) +3.0%

SNP: 665 (29.1%) -4.4%

Ref: 220 (9.6%) New

Grn: 216 (9.4%) -0.2%

Con: 175 (7.6%) -2.4%

Lab: 87 (3.8%) New

LDm GAIN from SNP (elected at stage 5)

Armitage with Handsacre, Lichfield District Council

Con: 630 (46.7%) -6.2%

Ref: 431 (31.9%) New

Lab: 127 (9.4%) -23.5%

LDm: 99 (7.3%) -6.8%

Grn: 63 (4.7%) New

Con HOLD

Belmont, South Kesteven District Council

Ref: 239 (33.4%) New

Con: 237 (33.1%) +1.5%

Ind: 143 (20.0%) New

Grn: 61 (8.5%) New

Lab: 35 (4.9%) -14.5%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Aveland, South Kesteven District Council

Ref: 290 (41.0%) +26.5%

Con: 280 (39.5%) +19.0%

Grn: 115 (16.2%) New

Lab: 23 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Eaglescliffe West, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council

Con: 1,194 (60.9%) +4.4%

Ref: 470 (24.0%) +17.6%

Grn: 150 (7.6%) -0.2%

Lab: 147 (7.5%) -21.7%

Con HOLD

Whitburn & Blackburn, West Lothian Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,177 (32.0%) New

SNP: 1,028 (28.0%) -10.7%

Lab: 627 (17.1%) -20.3%

Ind: 484 (13.2%) New

Con 129 (3.5%) -15.0%

LDm: 102 (2.8%) +0.4%

Grn: 101 (2.7%) -0.3%

Ind: 27 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 8)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 07.08.25

It was a trio of vacant seats for the second week in a row, with Labour defending two and Reform defending yet another seat they only won in May.  It was an astonishing night for the latter, who not only managed to easily hold in County Durham, but took the two other seats from Labour.

In County Durham, Reform stormed to its first successful defence with more than twice the votes of their nearest challenger.  While Labour's vote share was stable in that election, presenting a marginal increase, it plummeted in its two defences.  In Staffordshire, Reform built on its previous result and surged past Labour to again receive more than twice the votes.

In the red wall of south Wales, Reform came from nowhere to push the Labour defender into third place.  Labour suffered a catastrophic fall in vote share of almost 40 per cent.  Recent results in the red wall here are indicative of a major shift ahead of next year's all important Senedd elections.  Current polling suggests that Labour's dominance is under serious threat from Reform, but Labour may cling to power as part of a formal coalition with their left-wing comrades in Plaid.  However, if the red wall crumbles, Reform will likely emerge as the largest party and seek a coalition of their own...

Hednesford Green Heath, Cannock Chase District Council

Ref: 525 (51.5%) +31.8%

Lab: 230 (22.6%) -18.6%

Con: 126 (12.4%) -13.1%

Grn: 101 (9.9%) -0.3%

Ind: 31 (3.0%) New

UKIP: 5 (0.5%) New

TUS: 1 (0.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Ref: 694 (43.1%) New

Pld: 489 (30.4%) -7.2%

Lab: 380 (23.6%) -38.8%

LDm: 26 (1.6%) New

Con: 14 (0.9%) New

Gwd: 6 (0.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Easington & Shotton, Durham County Council

Ref: 1,208 (46.7%) -3.5%

Lab: 523 (20.2%) +0.8%

Ind: 520 (20.1%) -1.6%

Ind: 179 (6.9%) New

Grn: 60 (2.3%) New

Con: 47 (1.8%) -2.6%

LDm: 27 (1.0%) -3.2%

Ind: 23 (0.9%) New

Ref HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Gwd = Gwlad

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.07.25

Seven seats were up for grabs this week, with Labour defending just the one (Cardiff), which they held despite losing more than a fifth of their vote.  Reform are the new challengers in that ward, surging into second place from scratch.

The Labour vote was down in all six of the seats the party contested and they finished a humiliating last place in two of them.

Reform gained a seat from the Tories in South London, but the Conservatives faired better elsewhere.  They managed to hold off challenges from Reform newcomers in three seats, while they nominally gained a seat from the Greens in Rutland.  The Greens failed to field a candidate in the latter, providing a free-for-all for the remaining parties.

Bromley Common & Holwood, Bromley London Borough Council

Ref: 1,342 (34.0%) New

Con: 1,161 (29.4%) -11.8%

Lab: 720 (18.2%) -10.4%

LDm: 540 (13.7%) -2.2%

Grn: 185 (4.7%) -9.7%

Ref GAIN from Con

Llanrumney, Cardiff Council

Lab: 755 (39.4%) -20.5%

Ref: 630 (32.9%) New

LDm: 281 (14.7%) +9.3%

Pld: 138 (7.2%) New

Con: 64 (3.3%) -14.2%

Grn: 47 (2.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Berkhamsted West, Dacorum Borough Council

LDm: 643 (56.4%) -2.0%

Con: 357 (31.3%) -8.5%

Grn: 99 (8.7%) -0.4%

Lab: 41 (3.6%) -6.1%

LDm HOLD

Swanage, Dorset Council

Con: 1,254 (35.4%) -0.4%

Ref: 748 (20.8%) New

LDm: 737 (20.8%) +12.8%

Ind: 415 (11.7%) -7.7%

Lab: 400 (11.3%) -19.4%

Con HOLD

Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 478 (29.6%) -18.7%

Ref: 394 (24.4%) New

Ind: 339 (21.0%) New

Lab: 295 (18.3%) -33.5%

LDm: 47 (2.9%) New

Grn: 37 (2.3%) New

Ind: 26 (1.6%) New

Con HOLD

Alrewas & Fradley, Lichfield District Council

Con: 690 (42.4%) -1.1%

Ref: 439 (27.0%) New

Lab: 314 (19.3%) -17.9%

LDm: 185 (11.4%) -7.9%

Con HOLD

Barleythorpe, Rutland County Council

Con: 209 (35.9%) +10.3%

LDm: 136 (23.4%) New

Ref: 123 (21.1%) New

Ind: 114 (19.6%) New

Con GAIN from Grn

Abbreviation

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.07.25

Nine council seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with action taking place from east to west.

Labour were on the defence in two seats, losing one and holding the other.  In Basildon they lost to Reform who came from nowhere to win fairly comfortably, taking votes from all the other parties.  Labour held in Neath Port Talbot, despite a significant dip in their vote share.  Labour's vote share was down in all nine seats.

The Tories had a mixed week, losing two seats to Reform and gaining two elsewhere, including a Reform defence...

Reform had been defending their third seat in as many weeks, following several resignations within just days or weeks of being elected in May.  They have now lost all three, primarily because the electorate doesn't appreciate being asked to vote twice in a matter of months.  They tumbled to third place in Staffordshire, where the Tories sailed into first for an easy win.

NOTE:  The Denbighshire hold for the Conservatives was previously a multi-seat contest in which the Green Party won the first seat and the Tories second.

St Martin's, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 1,057 (44.6%) New

Lab: 833 (35.1%) -3.2%

Con: 320 (13.5%) -7.1%

Grn: 82 (3.4%) -8.9%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -7.8%

TUS: 26 (1.1%) -6.3%

SDP: 13 (0.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 303 (53.7%) New

Con: 158 (28.0%) -40.7%

Lab: 71 (12.6%) -18.7%

Grn: 32 (5.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Stone House, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 475 (45.2%) New

Lab: 299 (28.4%) -12.8%

Con: 190 (18.1%) -31.4%

Grn: 87 (8.3%) -1.0%

Ref GAIN from Con

Prestatyn Central, Denbighshire County Council

Con: 230 (21.7%) -1.8%

Ind: 223 (21.1%) New

Ref: 195 (18.4%) New

Pld: 152 (14.3%) New

Grn: 144 (13.6%) -35.4%

Lab: 95 (9.0%) -14.5%

LDm: 19 (1.8%) New

Con HOLD

Market Harborough-Logan, Harborough District Council

Con: 410 (31.3%) +4.1%

LDm: 355 (27.1%) -19.8%

Grn: 290 (22.2%) +14.5%

Ref: 190 (14.1%) New

Lab: 44 (3.4%) -9.1%

Ind: 10 (0.7%) -4.8%

CPB: 9 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Sefton Park, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 468 (49.8%) -7.0%

Lab: 211 (22.4%) -11.1%

LDm: 193 (20.5%) +15.4%

Ref: 54 (5.7%) New

Con: 14 (1.5%) -3.0%

Grn HOLD

Baglan, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Lab: 708 (37.5%) -16.8%

Ind: 532 (28.2%) New

Ref: 447 (23.7%) New

Pld: 149 (7.9%) New

Con: 19 (1.0%) -14.1%

Grn: 18 (1.0%) New

LDm: 13 (0.7%) New

Lab HOLD

Pontypridd Town, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 540 (51.6%) -2.2%

Ref: 253 (24.2%) New

Lab: 203 (19.4%) -16.8%

Con: 27 (2.6%) -7.3%

Grn: 23 (2.2%) New

Pld HOLD

Eccleshall & Gnosall, Staffordshire County Council

Con: 1,689 (44.4%) +10.1%

Grn: 1,037 (27.3%) +8.2%

Ref: 938 (24.7%) -10.3%

Lab: 140 (3.7%) -3.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

CPB = Communist Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 26.06.25

A whopping ten by-elections were held this week, from Edinburgh in the north to Sussex in the south.  Labour were defending half the seats and finished the day on just one, a hold in Stevenage.  Labour's vote share was down in every single seat, from a marginal decrease of 1.7 per cent in Edinburgh to a crushing 34.3 per cent in Chorley, Lancs.

Reform continued their good form, with gains in Basildon and Rossendale from local independents and also taking a Labour seat in Sheffield.  In all three seats they came from nowhere to win first time round.

The other Labour losses came at the hands of the Greens in London, Conservatives in Chorley and Lib Dems in Edinburgh.  Labour enjoyed a narrow lead in Edinburgh on the first round, but eventually lost out to the Lib Dems thanks to Scotland's single transferable vote system.

Wickford Park, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 922 (40.6%) New

Con: 840 (37.0%) +6.1%

LDm: 171 (7.5%) -6.8%

Ind: 148 (6.5%) -25.4%

Lab: 146 (6.4%) -16.4%

Grn: 43 (1.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Buckshaw & Whittle, Chorley Borough Council

Con: 576 (35.5%) +3.2%

Ref: 530 (32.7%) New

Lab: 412 (25.4%) -34.3%

Grn: 103 (6.4%) -1.6%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart, Edinburgh City Council

(first preferences)

Lab: 1,293 (20.8%) -1.7%

LDm: 1,269 (20.4%) +13.3%

Grn: 1,133 (18.2%) -1.7%

SNP: 905 (14.5%) -8.2%

Con: 857 (13.8%) -12.8%

Ref: 489 (7.9%) New

Ind: 111 (1.8%) New

Ind: 39 (0.6%) New

Ind: 36 (0.6%) New

SFP: 34 (0.5%) -0.2%

SLP: 25 (0.4%) -0.1%

Ind: 25 (0.4%) New

Ind: 9 (0.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 13)

Shooters Hill, Greenwich London Borough Council

Grn: 869 (34.6%) +19.5%

Lab: 756 (30.1%) -29.1%

Ref: 402 (16.0%) +13.2%

Con: 288 (11.5%) -2.4%

LDm: 128 (5.1%) -3.6%

Ind: 57 (2.3%) New

Ind: 9 (0.4%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Crediton Lawrence, Mid Devon District Council

LDm: 540 (64.9%) +12.8%

Ref: 226 (27.2%) New

Lab: 66 (7.9%) -18.3%

LDm HOLD

Whitworth, Rossendale Borough Council

Ref: 733 (47.5%) New

Con: 449 (29.1%) -0.7%

Lab: 251 (16.3%) -4.8%

Grn: 110 (7.1%) -4.0%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Catsfield & Crowhurst, Rother District Council

LDm: 267 (36.6%) -11.9%

Ref: 200 (27.4%) New

Con: 162 (22.2%) -10.9%

Lab: 101 (13.8%) -4.7%

LDm HOLD

Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Sheffield City Council

Ref: 1,789 (32.9%) New

LDm: 1,595 (29.3%) +12.1%

Lab: 1,324 (24.4%) -25.2%

Con: 332 (6.1%) -21.6%

Grn: 294 (5.4%) -7.1%

Yrk: 58 (1.1%) New

TUS: 43 (0.8%) -1.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Great Wyrley Landywood, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 358 (48.7%) +9.1%

Ref: 292 (39.7%) New

Lab: 55 (7.5%) -30.3%

LDm: 30 (4.1%) New

Con HOLD

Bedwell, Stevenage Borough Council

Lab: 506 (43.2%) -2.5%

Ref: 404 (34.5%) New

Con: 105 (9.0%) -9.9%

Grn: 79 (6.7%) -7.8%

LDm: 78 (6.7%) -8.6%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

Yrk = Yorkshire

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 15.05.25

Four seats were up for grabs on Thursday and it was another stunning week for the Reform UK juggernaut.  They were fighting all four seats for the first time and won two.  In Norfolk they took a seat from the Conservatives and in Stoke-on-Trent they completely annihilated the defending Labour party, receiving almost three times as many votes.  They also scored an impressive second place in Dunbartonshire, where they pushed the SNP all the way to the final round of counting.

So has Chairman Starmer's immigration rhetoric had an impact on voters?  Not judging by these results, where Labour's vote share plummeted by double digits in all four seats.

Whetstone, Barnet London Borough Council

Lab: 965 (33.5%) -18.0%

Con: 818 (28.4%) -7.8%

Ref: 592 (20.5%) New

Grn: 208 (7.2%) -5.1%

LDm: 176 (6.1%) New

REU: 65 (2.3%) New

TUS: 47 (1.6%) New

Ind: 13 (0.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Acle, Broadland District Council

Ref: 322 (33.2%) New

Con: 208 (21.4%) -25.4%

Grn: 200 (20.6%) New

Lab: 186 (19.2%) -23.2%

LDm: 54 (5.6%) -5.2%

Ref GAIN from Con

Birches Head & Northwood, Stoke-on-Trent City Council

Ref: 1,226 (58.5%) New

Lab: 449 (21.4%) -23.3%

Ind: 346 (16.5%) -14.0%

Con: 73 (3.5%) -16.7%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Clydebank Waterfront, West Dunbartonshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,039 (36.1%) -16.1%

Ref: 768 (26.2%) New

Lab: 739 (25.2%) -12.2%

LDm: 138 (4.7%) New

Con: 84 (2.9%) -4.8%

Grn: 76 (2.6%) New

Alb: 47 (1.6%) New

SFP: 25 (0.9%) -1.7%

SNP HOLD (elected stage 7)

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

REU = Rejoin EU

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

SFP = Scottish Family Party

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL RESULTS

23 council authorities held elections on Thursday, the vast majority of them county councils.  Labour were defending just one - the City of Doncaster - which they lost to Reform with a huge swing.  Ed Miliband and the rest of the local Labour MPs are likely to be toast based on these results, although a lot can change in four years.

The astonishing level of support for Reform meant that zero councils at the start of the day turned into ten by the end of it.  Eight of those gains came from the Conservatives, who had an exceptionally torrid day, losing control of every single council they were defending.  While Reform had an overall net gain of 677 council seats, the Tories had a net loss of 676.  It's no coincidence that these two figures are so close.  Reform are not just a threat to Labour, they are demolishing the Conservatives as well.

The only other party that won control of any councils on Thursday was the Lib Dems, who gained three in total.

The results are as follows.  The figures provided are the total number of council seats won per party and the difference in brackets from previous local elections.

Buckinghamshire County Council

Con: 46 (-31)

LDm: 27 (+19)

Ind: 13 (+6)

Lab: 5 (+1)

Ref: 3 (+3)

Grn: 3 (+2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Cambridgeshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+11)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Con: 10 (-18)

Lab: 5 (-4)

Grn: 3 (+3)

Ind: 2 (-2)

LDm GAIN from NOC

City of Doncaster Council

Ref: 37 (+37)

Lab: 12 (-28)

Con: 6 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Lab

Cornwall Council

Ref: 28 (+28)

LDm: 26 (+13)

Ind: 16 (n/c)

Con: 7 (-40)

Lab: 4 (-1)

Grn: 3 (+2)

MebK: 3 (-2)

NOC HOLD

Derbyshire County Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 12 (-33)

LDm: 3 (-1)

Lab: 3 (-11)

Ind: 2 (+2)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Devon County Council

LDm: 27 (+18)

Ref: 18 (+18)

Con: 7 (-32)

Grn: 6 (+4)

Ind: 2 (-1)

Lab: 0 (-7)

NOC GAIN from Con

Durham County Council

Ref: 65 (+65)

LDm: 14 (+1)

Ind: 12 (-14)

Lab: 4 (-38)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Con: 1 (-15)

Ref GAIN from NOC

Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 27 (+11)

Ref: 11 (+11)

Grn: 9 (+5)

Con: 6 (-24)

Ind: 1 (+1)

Lab: 1 (-4)

NOC HOLD

Hertfordshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+8)

Con: 22 (-24)

Ref: 14 (+14)

Grn: 5 (+4)

Lab: 5 (-2)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

Kent County Council

Ref: 57 (+57)

LDm: 12 (+6)

Grn: 5 (+1)

Con: 5 (-57)

Lab: 2 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-1)

RA: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Lancashire County Council

Ref: 53 (+53)

Ind: 9 (+9)

Con: 8 (-40)

Lab: 5 (-27)

LDm: 5 (+3)

Grn: 4 (+2)

Ref GAIN from Con

Leicestershire County Council

Ref: 25 (+25)

Con: 15 (-27)

LDm: 11 (+2)

Lab: 2 (-2)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (+1)

NOC GAIN from Con

Lincolnshire County Council

Ref: 44 (+44)

Con: 14 (-40)

LDm: 5 (+2)

Ind: 4 (-5)

Lab: 3 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

North Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 39 (+39)

Con: 13 (-37)

Grn: 8 (+5)

Lab: 4 (-8)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

LDm: 1 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Northumberland County Council

Con: 26 (-10)

Ref: 23 (+23)

Lab: 8 (-12)

Ind: 7 (-1)

LDm: 3 (n/c)

Grn 2 (n/c)

NOC HOLD

Nottinghamshire County Council

Ref: 40 (+40)

Con: 17 (-19)

Lab: 4 (-10)

Ind: 2 (-1)

RA: 1 (-9)

LDm: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Oxfordshire County Council

LDm: 36 (+12)

Lab: 12 (-3)

Con: 10 (-15)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Ind: 2 (+1)

Ref: 1 (+1)

RA: 1 (n/c)

LDm GAIN from NOC

Shropshire County Council

LDm: 42 (+29)

Ref: 16 (+16)

Con: 7 (-38)

Grn: 4 (n/c)

Lab: 4 (-5)

Ind: 1 (-2)

LDm GAIN from Con

Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 49 (+49)

Con: 10 (-46)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

Lab: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Con

Warwickshire County Council

Ref: 23 (+23)

LDm: 14 (+9)

Con: 9 (-33)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Lab: 3 (-3)

RA: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

West Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 17 (-35)

Lab: 9 (-9)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Ref GAIN from Con

Wiltshire County Council

LDm: 43 (+16)

Con: 37 (-24)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Ind: 7 (n/c)

Lab: 1 (-2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Worcestershire County Council

Ref: 27 (+27)

Con: 12 (-33)

Grn: 8 (+5)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Lab: 2 (-1)

NOC GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.01.25

Six seats were up for grabs on Thursday, four of which were north of the border and two of those were a double header in Edinburgh.

The Lib Dems and SNP were defending a seat each in Edinburgh, but lost to the Tories and Labour.  The Conservative vote did particularly well in this by election.  Elsewhere in Scotland, Labour lost to the SNP in Stirling, while the party did not even bother defending their Shetland seat.

South of the border it was a Lib Dem hold in Liverpool and a Labour hold in the Potteries.  The latter saw a very strong swing to Reform UK who had not previously contested the seat.

Colinton/Fairmilehead, City of Edinburgh Council

(two seats, first preference votes)

Con: 2,027 (32.6%) +12.9%

Lab: 1,146 (18.4%) -1.1%

LDm: 1,009 (16.2%) -20.0%

SNP: 840 (13.5%) +2.7%

Grn: 426 (6.8%) +1.5%

Ref: 345 (5.5%) +1.9%

Ind: 256 (4.1%) +1.8%

SFP: 65 (1.0%) +0.4%

Ind: 38 (0.6%) -0.2%

Ind: 30 (0.5%) +0.2%

Ind: 23 (0.4%) -0.3%

Ind: 13 (0.2%) New

Ind: 5 (0.1%) New

Con GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

Lab GAIN from SNP (elected at stage 13)

Much Woolton & Hunts Cross, Liverpool City Council

LDm: 1,011 (51.1%) -2.4%

Lab: 537 (27.1%) -4.2%

Ref: 218 (11.0%) New

Grn: 170 (8.6%) -2.0%

Con: 42 (2.1%) -2.3%

LDm HOLD

Bannockburn, Stirling Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 565 (35.9%) +7.2%

Lab: 376 (23.9%) +3.1%

Ref: 358 (22.7%) New

Con: 169 (10.7%) -8.4%

LDm: 55 (3.5%) +1.4%

Grn: 53 (3.4%) +1.0%

SNP GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 6)

Town, Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council

Lab: 309 (39.9%) -28.4%

Con: 226 (29.2%) -2.5%

Ref: 168 (21.7%) New

LDm: 78 (9.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Shetland North, Shetland Islands Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 887 (90.4%) New

Ind: 94 (9.5%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK
SFP = Scottish Family Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 26.09.24

Rhyl Trellewelyn, Denbighshire County Council

Con: 188 (51.4%) +33.8%

Lab: 127 (34.7%) -5.5%

Plaid: 36 (8.7%) -3.9%

LDm: 19 (5.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Stretton, East Staffordshire Borough Council

Con: 1,012 (70.8%) +25.3%

Lab: 304 (21.3%) -9.8%

Grn: 113 (7.9%) New

Con HOLD

Credenhill, Herefordshire Council

Ind: 201 (33.8%) New

Ind: 150 (25.3%) New

Con: 108 (18.2%) -20.5%

Ref: 89 (15.0%) New

LDm: 27 (4.5%) -12.7%

Lab: 19 (3.2%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Cromarty Firth, Highland Council (two seats)

(first preference votes)

LDm: 481 (20.3%) -7.6%

SNP: 403 (17.0%) -2.2%

Ind: 326 (13.7%) New

Ind: 323 (13.6%) New

Ind: 285 (12.0%) New

Ind: 162 (6.8%) New

Ind: 97 (4.1%) New

Grn: 89 (3.7%) +0.9%

Lab: 77 (3.2%) -0.9%

Con: 57 (2.4%) -4.3%

Ref (2): 52 & 23 (3.2%) New

LDm HOLD (elected at stage 11)

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 11)

Inverness Central, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 551 (31.8%) -9.5%

Lab: 479 (27.7%) +3.6%

LDm: 286 (16.5%) +10.1%

Grn: 158 (9.1%) +1.7%

Con: 150 (8.7%) -4.1%

Ref:  (5.4%) New

Lab HOLD (elected at stage 6)

Barnfield, Luton Borough Council

LDm: 1,169 (63.5%) +11.4%

Lab: 321 (17.4%) 18.8%

Con: 209 (11.4%) -0.3%

Grn: 110 (6.0% New

Ind: 32 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

Wigmore, Luton Borough Council

LDm: 749 (54.6%) -28.2%

Ind: 209 (15.2%) New

Con: 151 (11.0%) New

Lab: 137 (10.0%) -7.1%

Grn: 125 (9.1%) New

LDm HOLD

Perth City North, Perth & Kinross Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 917 (44.7%) +10.5%

Lab: 313 (15.3%) -0.1%

Con: 296 (14.4%) -5.1%

Ref: 209 (10.2%) New

Alb: 133 (6.5%) +4.3%

LDm: 95 (4.6%) +0.4%

Grn: 87 (4.2%) +0.8%

SNP GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 5)

Strathallan, Perth & Kinross Council

(first preference votes)

Con: 1,045 (32.1%) -14.6%

LDm: 978 (30.0%) +18.6%

SNP: 568 (17.4%) -17.5%

Lab: 366 (11.2%) New

Ref: 194 (6.0%) New

Grn: 107 (3.3%) -3.7%

LDm GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)

Thurston, Mid Suffolk District Council (held on Tuesday)

Con: 579 (49.2%) +18.9%

Grn: 518 (44.0%) -10.6%

Lab: 79 (6.7%) -0.2%

Con GAIN from Grn

Godalming Binscombe and Charterhouse, Waverley Borough Council (held on Tuesday)

Con: 725 (40.6%) +19.7%

LDm: 714 (40.0%) +10.7%

Grn: 195 (10.9%) -16.3%

Lab: 151 (8.5%) -14.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

Ind = Independents

HUGE SWING TO VICTORIOUS LABOUR

Labour have taken two safe Tory Westminster seats in a devastating night for Rishi Sunak.  The Conservatives were defending majorities of 24,664 in Mid Bedfordshire and 19,634 in Tamworth.  The swing to Labour in Nadine Dorries' old seat was 20.5 per cent, while in Tamworth it was 23.9 per cent.  Both constituencies will now be Labour marginals going into the general election, with majorities of 1,192 and 1,316.  Turnout was 44.1 per cent in Mid Beds and 35.9 per cent in Tamworth.

While it is fair to say that both by-elections were brought about by acrimonious circumstances caused by two MPs clinging to the gravy train for as long as possible, this can barely dampen a huge turnaround by Keir Starmer's candidates.

The long drawn out departure of Nadine Dorries would have frustrated many of her constituents, with claims that she was neglecting them while continuing to take home her Westminster salary.  Dorries had previously announced her 'immediate resignation' back in June, but subsequently changed her mind in a protracted attempt to receive a peerage pledged to her by Boris Johnson.  As pressure grew on Dorries to make good her resignation, 'missing' posters were put up across her constituency.  She eventually resigned at the end of August, but as the Commons was in summer recess the by-election was delayed still further.

The new MP for Mid Bedfordshire is Alistair Strathern, a university graduate and ex-teacher.  He was serving as a Labour councillor on Waltham Forest Council until last month, when he resigned ahead of a move back to his native Bedfordshire.  It is not clear if this was linked to his candidacy, seeing as his chances of victory were obviously slim.

In Tamworth the resignation of Chris Pincher was also a long time coming.  Allegations of sexual misconduct first emerged way back in June 2022 and would become the straw that broke Boris Johnson's back.  Pincher had been appointed deputy chief whip, despite prior knowledge of the alleged misdemeanors.  The revelation that Johnson had appointed him anyway led to the PM's downfall.

While Pincher resigned his whips' post in June 2022, following a 'drunken incident' in which he is alleged to have sexually assaulted two men, his resignation as Tamworth MP did not transpire for another 15 months and only came about when it was clear he would face a recall petition.  Pincher had been the MP since 2010.

Tamworth's new MP is Sarah Edwards, an art school graduate and Unite union official from Birmingham.  She defeated local councillor Andrew Cooper, an army veteran who was raised on a council estate.

Labour's double by-election gains follow on from their crushing defeat of the SNP in Rutherglen earlier this month.  There is little to suggest that the general election will go anything but Labour's way.  Mid Bedfordshire had been held by Conservative candidates since 1931.

Mid Bedfordshire Parliamentary By-Election

Alistair Strathern (Lab) 13,872 (34.1%) +12.4%

Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 12,680 (31.1%) -28.6%

Emma Holland-Lindsay (LDem) 9,420 (23.1%) +10.5%

Gareth Mackey (Ind) 1,865 (4.6%) New

Dave Holland (RefUK) 1,487 (3.7%) New

Cade Sibley (Grn) 732 (1.8%) -2.0%

Ann Kelly (Loon) 249 (0.6%) -0.2%

Antonio Vitiello (EngDem) 107 (0.3%) New

Sid Cordle (CPA) 101 (0.2%) New

Alan Victor (True) 93 (0.2%) New

Alberto Thomas (Herit) 63 (0.2%) New

Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India (Ind) 27 (0.1%) New

Chris Rooney (Mstr) 24 (0.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Tamworth Parliamentary By-Election

Sarah Edwards (Lab) 11,719 (45.7%) +22.0%

Andrew Cooper (Con) 10,403 (40.6%) -25.7%

Ian Cooper (RefUK) 1,373 (5.4%) New

Ashlea Simon (BritF) 580 (2.3%) New

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 436 (1.7%) -0.1%

Sue Howarth (Grn) 417 (1.6%) -0.4%

Sunny Virk (LDem) 417 (1.6%) -3.7%

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 155 (0.6%) New

Peter Longman (Ind) 86 (0.3%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

The Tories did not fair any better in Thursday's council by-elections.  They lost all three seats they were defending - two to the Greens and one to the Lib Dems.  Again, these were huge swings away from the Conservatives.

Alveley & Claverley, Shropshire Council

LDem: 662 (58.8%) +36.6%

Con: 408 (36.3%) -33.1%

Lab: 55 (4.9%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Horsleys, Surrey County Council

RGV: 1,095 (39.3%) -8.5%

LDem:: 1,023 (36.7%) +25.2%

Con: 569 (20.4%) -17.0%

Lab: 99 (3.6%) +0.3%

RGV HOLD

Warndon Parish, Worcestershire County Council

Grn: 1,139 (44.2%) +28.7%

Con: 623 (24.2%) -36.9%

LDem: 579 (22.5%) +16.3%

Lab: 239 (9.2%) -7.5%

Grn GAIN from Con

Warndon Parish South, Worcester City Council

Grn: 733 (53.7%) +36.2%

Con: 340 (24.9%) -28.4%

Lab: 171 (12.5%) -11.1%

LDem: 92 (6.7%) +1.2%

RefUK: 29 (2.1%) New

Grn GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrats

RefUK = Reform UK

Grn = Green

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

EngDem = English Democrats

CPA = Christian People's Alliance

True = True & Fair

Herit = Heritage

Mstr = Mainstream

BritF = Britain First

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

RGV = Residents for Guildford & Villages

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.11.22

Nine council seats on seven authorities were up for grabs this week.  The Conservatives were defending six seats and held four of these.  They held two seats in South Kesteven, Lincolnshire, narrowly fending off an independent surge in the ward of Grantham St Wulfram's.  They also held in Broxtowe and Cannock Chase, despite a dip in their vote share.

The Tories lost two seats to Labour - one in Braintree, Essex and another in Cannock Chase, Staffordshire, where they slipped to distant third.

It was a tale of independents in the remaining seats, including a gain from the Lib Dems in Kington-upon-Thames.  The only absentees in this week's polls were two independent candidates, one each in Cannock Chase and East Devon.

Braintree South, Braintree District Council

Lab: 372 (45.2%) +15.6%

Con: 317 (38.5%) -10.3%

Grn: 134 (16.3%) -5.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ind: 576 (43.5%) -17.1%

Con: 451 (34.1%) +6.1%

Lab: 297 (22.4%) +11.0%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Greasley, Broxtowe Borough Council

Con: 637 (47.7%) -16.1%

Lab: 555 (41.6%) +5.4%

LDem: 143 (10.7%) New

Con HOLD

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley Borough Council

Lab: 372 (39.4%) +8.5%

LDem: 363 (38.4%) +9.9%

Con: 123 (13.0%) -18.6%

Grn: 87 (9.2%) +0.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cannock West, Cannock Chase District Council

Con: 688 (55.4%) -4.5%

Lab: 430 (34.6%) +7.1%

Grn: 124 (10.0%) +4.5%

Con HOLD

Newton Poppleford & Harpford, East Devon District Council

Ind: 560 (67.1%) New

Lab: 162 (19.4%) New

Con: 113 (13.5%) -0.3%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Green Lane & St James, Kingston-upon-Thames London Borough Council

Ind: 855 (46.3%) +9.0%

LDem: 647 (35.1%) -3.8%

Lab: 265 (14.4%) +3.3%

Con: 78 (4.2%) -8.4%

Ind GAIN from LDem

Bourne East, South Kesteven District Council

Con: 310 (43.5%) +5.6%

Lab: 154 (21.6%) +5.7%

Ind: 120 (16.9%) -29.3%

LDem: 78 (11.0%) New

Grn: 50 (7.0%) New

Con HOLD

Grantham St Wulfram’s, South Kesteven District Council

Con: 359 (39.2%) -20.6%

Ind: 307 (33.6%) New

Lab: 174 (19.0%) +2.1%

Grn: 75 (8.2%) -15.1%

Con HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 03.11.22

Seven seats were on offer this week in six by-elections.  The Conservatives were defending four and lost three.  They held in Croydon, but their vote share plummeted.  They lost to Labour in Lichfield, the Lib Dems in Wiltshire and an independent in Nottinghamshire.  In Wiltshire and Nottinghamshire they slipped to third place.

There was better news for the Tories in South Cambridgeshire, where they took one of two seats the Lib Dems were defending.

In Moray the SNP gained a seat from the Lib Dems in an intriguing contest.  In May's local elections the Lib Dems, SNP and Conservatives each put forward a candidate for three vacancies.  As they were the only three candidates, they were all elected unopposed.  The Lib Dem winner since resigned, hence the by-election.  The Lib Dems came nowhere, leaving the SNP to do battle with an impressive Tory turnout.

Absentees in this week's polls were the Greens in Nottinghamshire and Wiltshire, and the Lib Dems in Nottinghamshire.

Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, Croydon London Borough Council

Con: 983 (46.3%) -21.2%

Grn: 530 (24.9%) +8.8%

Lab: 372 (17.5%) +1.0%

Ind: 168 (7.9%) New

LDem: 72 (3.4%) New

Con HOLD

Chasetown, Lichfield District Council

Lab: 318 (73.3%) +15.2%

Con: 116 (26.7%) -15.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Buckie, Moray Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,172 (48.9%)

Con: 879 (36.7%)

Lab: 239 (10.0%)

LDem: 67 (2.8%)

Ind: 38 (1.6%)

SNP GAIN from LDem (elected at stage 4)

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire County Council

Ind: 1,223 (43.1%) New

Lab: 1,182 (41.7%) -0.1%

Con: 431 (15.2%) -31.2%

Ind GAIN from Con

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire District Council

(two seats)

LDem: 578 (16.9%) elected

Con: 566 (16.5%) elected

LDem: 534 (15.6%)

Ind: 422 (12.3%)

Lab: 411 (12.0%)

Con: 394 (11.5%)

Lab: 266 (7.8%)

Grn: 169 (4.9%)

Grn: 85 (2.5%)

LDem HOLD

Con GAIN from LDem

Salisbury St Paul’s, Wiltshire Council

LDem: 813 (64.8%) +34.8%

Lab: 237 (18.5%) -3.3%

Con: 213 (16.6%) -15.6%

LDem GAIN from Con