COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.07.26

Twelve seats were up for grabs on Thursday - four Conservative defences, two each for Labour and the Lib Dems, one each for Plaid Cymru and a local independent group, plus two free-for-alls.

Labour only contested eight seats this week and the apparent bounce they enjoyed last week on the back of Starmer's resignation was muted at best.  They collected three wooden spoons, which included tallies of just 14 votes in the Cotswolds and 15 votes in mid-Wales.  Their vote share was mostly down, they lost a seat to Reform in Leicestershire and only just held them off for a narrow hold in Shropshire.

Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 741 (36.5%) -10.0%

Ref: 465 (22.9%) New

Con: 431 (21.3%) -20.0%

Ind: 150 (7.4%) New

Ind: 132 (6.5%) New

LDm: 56 (2.8%) -9.4%

SFP: 54 (2.7%) New

SNP GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)

Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent, who had been serving as an independent since leaving the Conservatives a year after he was elected in 2022.  The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats.  Labour and the Greens remain absent from this ward, which helped the SNP to a relatively easy gain, despite a dip in vote share attributable to multiple newcomers in Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents.  One of the independents was ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.  He couldn't even beat the other independent and finished fifth on first preferences.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,186 (50.0%) +10.8%

Ref: 541 (22.8%) -2.8%

Lab: 343 (14.5%) +3.4%

Grn: 189 (8.0%) -4.1%

Con: 71 (3.0%) -2.3%

LDm: 27 (1.1%) -0.4%

Ind: 13 (0.5%) New

Ind HOLD

An easy defence for local independent group the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents.  The incumbent had been elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent.  He resigned from the council in May.

Karl - Ind HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind HOLD ✔

Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Ind: 1,365 (35.7%) New

Con: 974 (25.5%) +3.7%

Ref: 778 (20.3%) New

Lab: 564 (14.7%) -5.8%

LDm: 142 (3.7%) -11.9%

Ind GAIN from Con

Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'.  He was elected in 2023, having finished third and taking the third and final available seat.  Independent candidates have finished in first place here since 2019 and that remained the case on Thursday, with the Conservatives closing on them slightly, despite an impressive new entry from Reform.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✔

St Michael's, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 344 (58.4%) -10.0%

Con: 112 (19.0%) -12.5%

Ref: 91 (15.4%) New

Grn: 27 (4.6%) New

Lab: 15 (2.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Three new entries took votes away from the only parties that contested this seat in 2023, but it was a routine hold for the Lib Dems nonetheless.  A change of career led to the resignation of their incumbent, who had a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age.  He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years.  He simultaneously stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also held on Thursday (see Cirencester Park below).

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council

Con: 928 (37.9%) -25.0%

Ref: 823 (33.6%) New

LDm: 629 (25.7%) -11.4%

Grn: 68 (7.8%) +2.8%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s.  He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems.  The victorious candidate this time was the deceased's elderly widow, who finished comfortably ahead of second placed Reform despite a significant swing to the newcomers.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 1,369 (58.7%) +6.6%

Con: 429 (18.4%) +2.9%

Ref: 366 (15.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 111 (4.8%0 -1.2%

Lab: 59 (2.5%) -2.6%

LDm HOLD

The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously.  He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025 and his successor held with an expanded share of the vote.  Another wooden spoon for Labour.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council

Ref: 403 (28.2%) +21.5%

Con: 386 (27.0%) +4.5%

Lab: 271 (19.0%) -13.4%

LDm: 270 (18.9%) -11.6%

Grn: 97 (6.8%) -0.9%

Ref GAIN from Lab

This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79, which had a huge impact on the council.  His passing meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader.  The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration.  With Labour losing this seat to Reform, the finely balanced numbers remain in the Tories' favour and they can continue with their own minority administration.  All three of the rainbow parties saw their vote share take a dip here, with Labour plummeting to third.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Glantwymyn, Powys County Council

Pld: 513 (81.8%) -18.2%

Ref: 63 (10.0%) New

Con: 28 (4.5%) New

LDm: 23 (3.7%) New

Pld HOLD

The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7.  Plaid were elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022 and it was a routine hold for them on Thursday, despite the presence of three new entries.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council

Ref: 359 (41.6%) New

LDm: 226 (26.2%) -20.1%

Con: 210 (24.3%) New

Ind: 51 (5.9%) New

Grn: 18 (2.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

A nice result for Reform in rural Wales, turning a defection into a gain.  The incumbent vacated the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen.  She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election.  By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had left Abolish and was elected as an independent.  Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd.  Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council

LDm: 297 (39.7%) -1.1%

Ref: 259 (34.6%) New

Pld: 96 (12.8%) New

Con: 68 (9.1%) -50.2%

Grn: 15 (2.0%) New

Lab: 14 (1.9%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK.  Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025.  He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper was much more crowded on Thursday.  The Tories ended up slumping to fourth, while Reform went straight in at second and lost out by just 38 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 590 (42.9%) -32.2% Ref: 569 (41.4%) New Con: 104 (7.6%) -10.3% Grn: 76 (5.5%) New LDm: 35 (2.5%) -4.4%

Lab HOLD

A narrow 21 vote hold for Labour as they saw their majority crumble with a colossal swing to Reform.  The incumbent Labour councillor has been the town's MP for the last two years, but unlike Scotland and Wales - where Holyrood and Senedd members are forced to relinquish council roles - there is no such mechanism for Westminster MPs.  He only stood down from the council following his recent appointment as a government whip, and even then only after being 'advised' to do so.  His wife continues to serve as a councillor for the same ward.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council

Ref: 505 (42.7%) New Lab: 362 (30.6%) +3.4% Pld: 190 (16.1%) -1.6% Con: 58 (4.9%) New Grn: 49 (4.1%) -6.8%

LDm: 18 (1.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK.  And again, the new MS was never elected as a Reform councillor.  The journeyman was initially elected in 2017 as an independent, joined the Conservatives a year later and then quit the party the following year.  He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year.  Regardless of the incumbent's back and forth, Reform turned this contest into an impressive gain at the first time of asking.  No independents stood this time, while Labour selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.  Worrying that he finished a strong second.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Karl led Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from the 54 seats contested since May 7.  Richey has managed to claw a point back, correctly predicting nine results against Karl's eight and moving back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.04.26

It was all about Reform this week, with the party defending both of the two vacant seats.  After last week's surprise loss to the Greens, they were looking for a pair of holds and to prevent Polanski's crazy gang from hijacking their momentum.  Both vacancies arose through resignations of incumbents elected last May, both ostensibly on health grounds.  In Leicestershire the Reform councillor had been forced to issue a statement as to the motive for his departure, after it was linked to his poor attendance record.  The Northumberland councillor had also been accused of poor attendance, in addition to a lack of engagement with local residents.  Having confirmed he is being treated for kidney cancer, perhaps they could have cut him a little slack.

We expected podium finishes in Northumberland to go to Reform, the Conservatives and Greens, and probably in that order.  We also predicted a narrow Tory gain in Leicestershire, but as it turned out we got the results the wrong way around.  The narrow Tory gain actually came in Northumberland and Labour kept the Greens down in fourth place.

The Reform hold in Leicestershire was quite comfortable, with the party more than a thousand votes in front of the second placed Conservatives.  The presence of Advance UK did nothing to dent Reform's performance, with their rivals finishing in last place with just 28 votes.

Results have been slow to appear this week as we were both attending a funeral on Friday.

Narborough & Whetstone, Leicestershire County Council

Ref: 1,033 (33.0%) -9.3%

Con: 927 (29.6%) +5.1%

Grn: 884 (28.2%) +13.4%

LDm: 134 (4.3%) -3.6%

Lab: 124 (4.0%) -4.8%

Adv: 28 (0.9%) New

Ref HOLD

Cramlington South West, Northumberland County Council

Con: 278 (34.2%) +9.0%

Ref: 212 (26.1%) -13.3%

Lab: 187 (23.0%) -5.8%

Grn: 116 (14.3%) New

Ind: 13 (1.6%) New

LDm: 7 (0.9%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

DR SANDHER'S MELTING POT MYTH

If a general election were held now, Labour's Jeevun Sandher would be toast.  His fellow MP wife - Louise Sandher-Jones - would also be a goner.  Even if the Greens and Lib Dems stood aside in their East Midlands seats, this couple would be departing the Westminster gravy train forthwith, such is the seismic electoral shift against the establishment.

Hence Mr and Mrs Sandher are desperate to hold onto their seats and their lucrative joint political career.  As most Labour MPs are these days, they are the kind of privileged bourgeois university-educated types who have never had a proper job in their lives.  Like Karl Mark himself, they are the kind of people dictating policies for a demographic that is alien to them, and who they secretly regard with total disgust.

For Mr Sandher's part, he tends to pump out regime sketches on social media, supporting the Starmer regime and party policy.  He uses the title 'Dr', but he is not a medical doctor, otherwise he would have probably sorted out his sinus problem as he speaks like he has a permanently blocked nose.  No, his doctorate is in 'political economics'.  This is a source of amusement for many social media users who bear witness to his little video clips, which quite often revolve around the dire imposition of net zero.

Sandher is aware of how the tide is turning and the knock on effect of every significant defeat at the ballot box for Labour.  As did countless PLP comrades of the 'centrist' persuasion, Sandher got himself across to Gorton and Denton for the recent by-election.  As has become customary, he made a little video along the way.  Walking across what appears to be open moorland, the bearded Sikh smears Reform's by-election candidate Matt Goodwin as 'not very British'.  Yes, seriously.

Watch below (two minute watch).

With regards to Sandher's opening salvo, Matt Goodwin denies that he has ever defined British people in such a way.  Certainly to do so may incur the wrath of his party leader, who has been increasingly critical of ethnic nationalism recently (in truth, he always has been).

Sandher goes on to invoke Winston Churchill for the second time in recent weeks and repeatedly uses the word 'our' to describe a collective Britishness.  He appears to suggest that Churchill would not pass the 'Goodwin test' that he made up, presumably because one of Churchill's grandparents was American.  However, Churchill's grandfather was of Western European descent - a French Huguenot - who are closely related to English people in terms of ethnicity, religion and culture.  Contrast that with Sandher himself, who claims to be just as British as the rest of us.  If that's the case, why was he specifically singled out to chair the All-Parliamentary Committee on Indian Affairs?  Why does he appear in an article of The Economic Times listing a record number of 'Indian-origin MPs'?

Yes, Britain has always been made up of different communities, but if these had repeatedly 'come together' as he suggests, we would have become a melting pot a long time ago and regional differences would have disappeared.  Why then, after thousands of years, is Welsh and Gaelic still spoken in isolated communities?  Why has Cornish only recently been driven to the brink of extinction?  Why are regional dialects only now beginning to die out (due to mass immigration)?

Migrant communities that have sprung up in the last century are no different in their desire to maintain their own secluded existence, in fact even more so.  If one goes to any big town or city, one can clearly see that these communities have certainly not 'come together'.  Our cities are heavily divided on ethnic lines and the recent Gorton and Denton by-election is a prime example.

Yes, people came from across the British Empire to fight in World War II, but they did not 'come together' in multi-culti regiments as Sandher would have you believe.  As for that 'fascist' sleight towards Reform UK, the old 'Nazi' jibe against anyone who is right of Labour is getting a bit tiresome now.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 19.02.26

It was a trio of Labour defences on Thursday, with one week to go before the big day in Gorton and Denton.  After accurately predicting last week's results, we got two out of three correct yesterday.

Plaid and Reform pushed Labour into third place in Caerphilly, while they fell to the Lib Dems in Cleveland.  Technically, the latter seat was vacated by an independent, as the incumbent quit Labour last October.

The result we didn't see coming was a gain for the Greens in Leicester, which may be symptomatic of a shift away from Labour in certain ethno-religious communities.  Stoneygate ward was 63 per cent Muslim according to the 2021 census.

It is probably for similar reasons that the smart money is going on the Greens to win in Gorton and Denton next week.  The Muslim population in the constituency stood at almost 30 per cent in 2021 and in a tight three way contest, this could be enough for the Greens to edge it if there is a big swing from Labour in that demographic.  This time next week we will know, but any predictions made will have been reached with very little degree of confidence.  Gorton and Denton has become notoriously difficult to call...

Van, Caerphilly County Borough Council

Pld: 374 (43.3%) -1.9%

Ref: 246 (28.5%) New

Lab: 231 (26.8%) -28.0%

LDm: 12 (1.4%) New

Pld GAIN from Lab

Stoneygate, Leicester City Council

Grn: 1,195 (30.4%) +22.9%

Lab: 1,089 (27.7%) -12.8%

Ind: 638 (16.2%) New

Ind: 453 (11.5%) New

Con: 327 (8.3%) -15.3%

Ref: 106 (2.7%) New

LDm: 62 (1.6%) -5.9%

Ind: 61 (1.6%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Zetland, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council

LDm: 446 (50.5%) +15.2%

Lab: 191 (21.6%) -25.2%

Ref: 119 (13.5%) New

Grn: 65 (7.4%) New

Con: 62 (7.0%) -10.9%

LDm GAIN from Lab

WARMONGERING FABIAN NONSENSE

Labour backbencher Jeevun Sandher likes to do the media rounds and maintain a high profile.  He is a longstanding member of the Fabian Society and supports progressive globalist death cult values.  As such, he was a co-sponsor of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, the despicable attempt to introduce Nazi-style euthanasia to the UK with a long-term view to expand to more and more eligible groups.  Naturally, he is also a warmonger.

Last week the Loughborough MP made a shameful scaremongering video and posted it to his social media. He stood in front of the Churchill plinth in Parliament Square and declared that "Churchill was right", before embarking on a one minute geopolitical rant comparing Putin to Hitler and demanding that Britain and Europe prepare for war.

Watch the full clip below.

Sandher's absurd scaremongering routine falls apart demonstrably easy.  His bogeyman invaded the Ukraine four years ago and in all that time Russian forces have only managed to expand their occupation to a measly 20 per cent of the Ukraine's internationally recognised territory.  This includes the territory already in de facto control of Moscow following the Donbas War and its annexation of Crimea.

At this current rate of advance, it would take Russia around a hundred years to reach the Western borders of Ukraine and fully occupy the country, at which time Vladimir Putin would be aged 173.

For the record, Jeevun Sandher would be 135.

Presumably, at this point, Putin would finally engage his forces in Finland or Poland, and - following another 500 years of sluggish Russian advances across Europe - the 700 year old vampire Putin would finally bear down on Blighty.

When simple facts meet Sandher's distorted reality, they create science fiction at best.  Woeful and desperate stuff from the death cult.

Do one chancer, and get your sinuses checked out.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 18.12.25

There were five vacancies to fill in the final round of by-elections this year, with Labour defending a Lancashire seat.  They slumped to third as Reform surged into first place with more than twice the amount of Labour votes.  It was another good night for Reform, who obliterated the defending Conservatives in Suffolk, finishing with almost four times the number of Tory votes.  They also held in Cornwall.

Among the diabolical results for Labour was a tally of just nine votes in Cornwall.  They finished last or second to last in all but one of the five seats.

There are no further council by-elections scheduled until January 15.

Greenlands, Blackpool Council

Ref: 587 (44.4%) +38.4%

Con: 299 (22.6%) -17.2%

Lab: 289 (21.9%) -22.7%

Grn: 79 (6.0%) -2.5%

LDm: 45 (3.4%) New

Ind: 22 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

St Columb Minor & Colan, Cornwall Council

Ref: 408 (31.7%) -4.2%

Ind: 325 (25.3%) New

LDm: 296 (23.0%) +14.6%

Grn: 173 (13.4%) New

Con: 73 (5.7%) -11.2%

Lab: 9 (0.7%) -7.8%

Ind: 3 (0.2%) New

Ref HOLD

Market Harborough-Logan, Harborough District Council

Con: 461 (34.7%) +5.8%

Grn: 358 (26.9%) +18.8%

LDm: 268 (20.2%) -29.6%%

Ref: 195 (14.7%) New

Lab: 43 (3.2%) -9.9%

SDP: 4 (0.3%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Broad Oak, South Ribble Borough Council

LDm: 810 (65.9%) +0.4%

Ref: 263 (21.4%) New

Con: 95 (7.7%) -9.5%

Lab: 62 (5.0%) -12.2%

LDm HOLD

Pakefield, Suffolk County Council

Ref: 1,286 (49.2%) New

Grn: 508 (19.4%) +9.1%

Con: 357 (13.6%) -43.3% 

Lab: 328 (12.5%) -13.6%

LDm: 137 (5.2%) -1.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.11.25

Eight seats were contested on Thursday, including two notional defences for Labour that they were destined to lose.  Both of these seats had been won by the outgoing councillor, having finished second and picking up a seat by way of multi-vacancy elections.

In Scotland, this was achieved by Cllr David Graham, trailing in behind the SNP.  Graham was thrown out of office earlier this year when he was convicted and jailed for grooming and sexually abusing a 15-year-old girl.  The 43-year-old is now serving a sentence of two years and five months.  As expected, the SNP took the seat this time around, with Labour being pushed into third by Reform UK.

You'd be mistaken for thinking that Labour may have stood a better chance of holding in Derbyshire, where they previously trailed behind an independent.  Not so.  This had been a Tory seat up until 2021, but independents topped the last two polls.  We expected this to go either independent or Reform this time around, but it was no contest as the independent candidate romped home with more than twice the Reform vote.  Labour crashed into fourth place, behind the Conservatives.

Labour's vote share was down in all of the seats it contested on Thursday, and down by double digits in all but one.

It was another good week for Reform and the Lib Dems.  Reform either topped the polls or came second in all the seats it contested, gaining two from independents and one from the Conservatives.  The Lib Dems managed to gain two seats, one each from the Conservatives and Greens.  The latter could not even muster a candidate to defend their seat, making yet more mockery of the supposed 'Green surge' hyped up by the media.  The best the Greens could achieve this week was a third place finish in Nottinghamshire, in which only four candidates stood.

Buckhaven, Methil & Wemyss Villages, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,594 (42.6%) -4.8%

Ref: 1,080 (28.9%) New

Lab: 778 (20.8) -11.4%

LDm: 99 (2.6%) +0.3%

Alb: 83 (2.2%) +0.9%

Con: 64 (1.7%) -4.8%

Sov: 45 (1.2%) New

SNP GAIN from Lab (elected stage 6)

Fleckney, Harborough District Council

Ref: 551 (35.0%) New

LDm: 453 (28.7%) +2.1%

Con: 416 (26.4%) -6.0%

Grn: 102 (6.5%) -6.2%

Lab: 54 (3.4%) -11.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Balderton North & Coddington, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Ref: 545 (42.0%) New

Con: 480 (37.0%) +5.0%

Grn: 173 (13.3%) New

Lab: 101 (7.8%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Castle, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Ref: 204 (29.0%) New

Con: 193 (27.4%) -4.0%

Lab: 88 (12.5%) -21.3%

Ind: 74 (10.5%) New

LDm: 70 (9.9%) New

Grn: 61 (8.7%) New

Ind: 14 (2.0%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Seales, South Derbyshire District Council

Ind: 713 (55.7%) New

Ref: 309 (24.1%) New

Con: 105 (8.2%) -14.1%

Lab: 82 (6.4%) -20.0%

LDm: 72 (5.6%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Westway, Tandridge District Council

LDm: 539 (42.3%) -0.6%

Ref: 420 (33.0%) New

Con: 202 (15.9%) -13.3%

Lab: 112 (8.8%) -19.1%

LDm GAIN from Con

Lingfield,  Crowhurst & Tandridge, Tandridge District Council

Ind: 457 (38.0%) +3.2%

Ref: 329 (27.3%) New

Ind: 158 (13.1%) New

Con: 128 (10.6%) -1.3%

LDm: 90 (7.5%) -1.4%

Lab: 42 (3.5%) -13.4%

Ind HOLD

Okehampton South, West Devon Borough Council

LDm: 356 (57.1%) New

Con: 152 (24.4%) -5.9%

Ind: 116 (18.6%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

A further two by-elections were contested earlier in the week, taking place on the somewhat unorthodox day of Tuesday.  These were both Labour defences in Burnley, Lancashire.  The party lost both seats to independents and were pushed into distant third places by Reform in both seats.

Queensgate, Burnley Borough Council

Ind: 679 (55.7%) New

Ref: 240 (19.7%) New

Lab: 133 (10.9%) -9.1%

Grn: 71 (5.8%) New

Ind: 52 (4.3%) New

Con: 43 (3.5%) -7.2%

Ind GAIN from Lab

Lanehead, Burnley Borough Council

Ind: 706 (44.4%) New

Ref: 510 (32.1%) New

Lab: 262 (16.5%) -25.9%

Con: 61 (3.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 50 (3.1%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Alb = Alba

Con = Conservative

Sov = Sovereignty

Grn = Green

Ind = Independents and local residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.07.25

Nine council seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with action taking place from east to west.

Labour were on the defence in two seats, losing one and holding the other.  In Basildon they lost to Reform who came from nowhere to win fairly comfortably, taking votes from all the other parties.  Labour held in Neath Port Talbot, despite a significant dip in their vote share.  Labour's vote share was down in all nine seats.

The Tories had a mixed week, losing two seats to Reform and gaining two elsewhere, including a Reform defence...

Reform had been defending their third seat in as many weeks, following several resignations within just days or weeks of being elected in May.  They have now lost all three, primarily because the electorate doesn't appreciate being asked to vote twice in a matter of months.  They tumbled to third place in Staffordshire, where the Tories sailed into first for an easy win.

NOTE:  The Denbighshire hold for the Conservatives was previously a multi-seat contest in which the Green Party won the first seat and the Tories second.

St Martin's, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 1,057 (44.6%) New

Lab: 833 (35.1%) -3.2%

Con: 320 (13.5%) -7.1%

Grn: 82 (3.4%) -8.9%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -7.8%

TUS: 26 (1.1%) -6.3%

SDP: 13 (0.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 303 (53.7%) New

Con: 158 (28.0%) -40.7%

Lab: 71 (12.6%) -18.7%

Grn: 32 (5.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Stone House, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 475 (45.2%) New

Lab: 299 (28.4%) -12.8%

Con: 190 (18.1%) -31.4%

Grn: 87 (8.3%) -1.0%

Ref GAIN from Con

Prestatyn Central, Denbighshire County Council

Con: 230 (21.7%) -1.8%

Ind: 223 (21.1%) New

Ref: 195 (18.4%) New

Pld: 152 (14.3%) New

Grn: 144 (13.6%) -35.4%

Lab: 95 (9.0%) -14.5%

LDm: 19 (1.8%) New

Con HOLD

Market Harborough-Logan, Harborough District Council

Con: 410 (31.3%) +4.1%

LDm: 355 (27.1%) -19.8%

Grn: 290 (22.2%) +14.5%

Ref: 190 (14.1%) New

Lab: 44 (3.4%) -9.1%

Ind: 10 (0.7%) -4.8%

CPB: 9 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Sefton Park, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 468 (49.8%) -7.0%

Lab: 211 (22.4%) -11.1%

LDm: 193 (20.5%) +15.4%

Ref: 54 (5.7%) New

Con: 14 (1.5%) -3.0%

Grn HOLD

Baglan, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Lab: 708 (37.5%) -16.8%

Ind: 532 (28.2%) New

Ref: 447 (23.7%) New

Pld: 149 (7.9%) New

Con: 19 (1.0%) -14.1%

Grn: 18 (1.0%) New

LDm: 13 (0.7%) New

Lab HOLD

Pontypridd Town, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 540 (51.6%) -2.2%

Ref: 253 (24.2%) New

Lab: 203 (19.4%) -16.8%

Con: 27 (2.6%) -7.3%

Grn: 23 (2.2%) New

Pld HOLD

Eccleshall & Gnosall, Staffordshire County Council

Con: 1,689 (44.4%) +10.1%

Grn: 1,037 (27.3%) +8.2%

Ref: 938 (24.7%) -10.3%

Lab: 140 (3.7%) -3.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

CPB = Communist Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 31.10.24

Seven contests this week and just two Labour defences.  They held with a reduced majority in the deepest of red territory - Salford - but lost spectacularly to newcomers Reform in Wolverhampton.  Labour's vote share was down in all six of the seats the party contested, including almost 40 percentage points in that aforementioned Wolverhampton seat.

Sileby & Seagrove, Charnwood Borough Council

Grn: 752 (52.9%) +0.1%

Ref: 297 (20.9%) New

Con: 262 (18.4%) -8.2%

Lab: 70 (4.9%) -12.0%

LDm: 40 (2.8%) -0.8%

Grn HOLD

Bishops Waltham, Hampshire County Council

LDm: 2,210 (52.2%) +28.6%

Con: 1,431 (33.8%) -23.1%

Grn: 477 (11.3%) -2.0%

Lab: 115 (2.7%) -2.6%

LDm GAIN from Con

North Middleton, Rochdale Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 812 (51.7%) +8.3%

Lab: 572 (36.4%) -11.9%

Con: 108 (6.9%) +0.3%

LDm: 80 (5.1%) +3.4%

Ind HOLD

Eccles, Salford City Council

Lab: 951 (51.2%) -11.8%

Con: 426 (23.0%) +6.2%

Grn: 261 (14.1%) -0.2%

LDm: 142 (7.6%) New

TUS: 61 (4.1%) -1.8%

Lab HOLD

Bramhall South & Woodford, Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,909 (47.9%) +4.6%

LDm: 1,733 (43.5%) -1.4%

Ref: 133 (3.3%) New

Lab: 115 (2.9%) -4.2%

Grn: 95 (2.4%) 2.3%

Con GAIN from LDm

Kirkby Stephen & Tebay, Westmorland and Furness Council

LDm: 887 (82.7%) +39.1%

Con: 186 (17.3%) -24.8%

LDm GAIN from Con

Bilston North, Wolverhampton City Council

Ref: 652 (34.8%) New

Lab: 471 (25.1%) -39.9%

Grn: 438 (23.4%) New

Con: 257 (13.7%) -14.3%

LDm: 55 (2.9%) -4.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.10.22

Five council seats were up for grabs this week and despite overwhelmingly negative media coverage and dreadful polling, it was a good return for the Conservatives.  They not only held their one defence (Gloucester), they gained seats from both Labour and the Greens.

It was a narrow hold for the Tories in Gloucester, where the absence of an independent candidate appeared to help the Lib Dems almost surge to victory.  The winning margin was just 15 votes.

In Epping Forest the Greens were defending a seat they had previously gained in a head-to-head contest against the incumbent Conservatives.  It was a two-way battle again, but on this occasion the Tory candidate triumphed.  The most sensational result of the night came in Leicester where Labour were defending one of their 50 council seats (from 54 in total).  The Conservatives stormed to victory, doubling their existing tally of one council seat.  The Green Party also enjoyed a surge, leaving Labour trailing behind in third.

Labour managed to hold its other two defences, but lost ground to the Liberal Democrats in Stockport where the absence of a Conservative candidate appeared to benefit the Lib Dems.  Interesting to note that of the four seats Labour contested on Thursday, their vote share was down in three of them with the fourth presenting a meagre advance of 0.1 per cent.

Waltham Abbey South West, Epping Forest District Council

Con: 260 (55.2%) +17.2%

Grn: 211 (44.8%) -17.2%

Con GAIN from Grn

Tuffley, Gloucester City Council

Con: 502 (34.9%) -13.5%

LDem: 487 (33.8%) +28.3%

Lab: 451 (31.3%) -2.7%

Con HOLD

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Lab: 450 (50.8%) +0.1%

Ind: 280 (31.6%) +4.7%

Con: 124 (14.0%) -8.5%

LDem: 32 (3.6%) New

Lab HOLD

North Evington, Leicester City Council

Con: 3,441 (49.6%) +32.7%

Grn: 1,790 (25.8%) +20.0%

Lab: 1,563 (22.5%) -49.8%

LDem: 100 (1.4%) -3.5%

TUSC: 45 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Edgeley & Cheadle Heath, Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,172 (52.9%) -19.6%

LDem: 844 (38.1%) +32.1%

Grn: 200 (9.0%) +0.5%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.09.22

Eight seats were up for grabs this week up and down the mainland.  In Scotland there was a free-for-all on the west coast following the death of an independent.  Another independent surged to victory, overtaking the SNP and defeating them all the way to the final stage.  Labour were eliminated on first preference votes, finishing a humiliating last place with just 55 votes.  Scotland uses a different voting method to the rest of the UK - the single transferable vote in which voters rank the candidates in order of preference.

In England and Wales there were holds for the Lib Dems (three seats), the Conservatives (two), Labour and Plaid (one each).  The only change of hands was a Labour gain from the Conservatives in Nottinghamshire where a head-to-head battle dramatically turned on its head in favour of red.

There were no absentees in this week's by-elections.  If the opinion polls are to be believed then there will be no need for a 'progressive alliance' at the next election.  Labour are a shoo-in, apparently.  However, while the Tory vote was down in seven of eight of this week's by-elections, Labour's vote was down in five.  The electorate are clearly still not sure about the wooden man of no policies.

Kintyre & the Islands, Argyll and Bute Council

(First preference votes)

Ind: 591 (32.7%) +16.3%

SNP: 525 (29.1%) -0.8%

LDem: 265 (14.7%) -1.7%

Con: 194 (10.7%) +1.2%

Grn: 176 (9.7%) New

Lab: 55 (3.0%) -1.2%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 6)

Logan, Harborough District Council

LDem: 582 (45.7%) +2.7%

Con: 382 (30.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 250 (19.6%) +8.6%

Ind: 60 (4.7%) -8.7%

LDem HOLD

Edwinstowe & Clipstone, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Lab: 804 (59.8%) +10.0%

Con: 540 (40.2%) -10.0%

Lab GAIN from Con

Hinksey Park, Oxford City Council

Lab: 801 (51.3%) -4.7%

Grn: 305 (19.5%) +5.9%

Ind: 270 (17.3%) +3.2%

LDem: 118 (7.6%) -3.2%

Con: 60 (3.8%) -1.8%

TUSC: 8 (0.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Ynysybwl, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Plaid: 435 (59.0%) +3.5%

Lab: 246 (33.4%) -1.2%

Con: 34 (4.6%) New

Gwlad: 14 (1.9%) -8.0%

Grn: 8 (1.1%) New

Plaid HOLD

Facit & Shawforth, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 337 (43.5%) -16.7%

Ind: 214 (27.6%) +27.6%

Lab: 203 (26.2%) -13.5%

Grn: 20 (2.6%) New

Con HOLD

Helmshore, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 736 (50.6%) -11.3%

Lab: 540 (37.1%) -1.0%

Grn: 74 (5.1%) New

LDem: 62 (4.3%) New

Ind: 42 (2.9%) New

Con HOLD

Grappenhall, Warrington Borough Council

(two seats)

LDem: 1,073

LDem: 1,047

Con: 524

Con: 462

Lab: 193

Grn: 135

LDem HOLD x 2

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

LDem = Liberal Democrats

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Gwlad = Gwlad

Ind = Independents

OFF HER LEICESTER ROCKER

The disgraced member for Leicester East has been embarrassing herself yet again.  Claudia Webbe's response to ongoing disturbances in Leicester have led to ridicule as she holds up the city as a harmonious shining example of multiculturalism - at a time in which it is tearing itself apart.

In the last few days Claudia has been busying herself on Twitter, repeating the laughable adage 'diversity is strength'.  She even suggested that 'right-wing fascism' was partly to blame for the violence, although some supporters have suggested that she was referring to Hindu nationalists.  But, as comedian Leo Kearse pointed out: "I'm pretty sure Claudia wasn't referring to that, because she's really thick".  That's not in any doubt.  Webbe later tweeted several screenshots that includes Kearse's response, labelling them examples of 'everyday racism, misogyny and abuse'.

In a letter to the acting chief constable of Leicestershire Police, Claudia also quoted constituents who blamed 'underlying Islamophobia' for the clashes.  One things is for sure, neither Webbe or her former comrades in the Labour Party will ever blame decades of mass immigration for importing the ethno-religious tribal politics of the Indian subcontinent for what is happening in UK cities such as Leicester and Birmingham.

Claudia Webbe was expelled from Labour in November 2021 following her harassment conviction, although she remains a member of the Socialist Campaign Group.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 31.03.22

Just three by-elections this week - two in Yorkshire and one in Leicestershire.  No seats changed hands with Labour successfully defending one and the Conservatives two.

This week's absentees were the Greens in Melton and UKIP in Scarborough.

Wheatley Hills & Intake, Doncaster Council

Lab: 827 (46.0%) +6.1%

Con: 419 (23.3%) -2.2%

Yrks: 356 (19.8%) +1.9%

Grn: 135 (7.5%) -2.8%

LDem: 60 (3.3%) -3.0%

Lab HOLD

Melton Sysonby, Melton Borough Council

Con: 396 (53.2%) +8.3%

LDem: 183 (24.6%) +24.6%

Lab: 165 (22.2%) -3.5%

Con HOLD

Mayfield, Scarborough Borough Council

Con: 268 (45.8%) -1.5%

Lab: 142 (24.3%) -6.7%

Ind: 122 (20.9% New

Yrks: 53 (9.1%) New

Con HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Yrks = Yorkshire Party

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.02.22

Nine seats up for grabs this week - two Conservative defences, one defence each for Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, plus four open contests triggered by independents.  

Overall the Tories are up two seats, Labour up one, while the Lib Dems and the Greens broke even.  The Tories took two of the independent seats, Labour took a third.  The Tories lost a seat to an impressive Lib Dem surge in Northamptonshire, but gained a seat from the Lib Dems with a stunning victory of their own in Leicestershire (Oadby and Wigston).

The Green Party did not contest Stainburn and Clifton this time round.  UKIP were absent from Park.  Labour stood down in Wigston Meadowcourt, presumably to give the Lib Dems a free run.  This backfired and the Tories took the seat, despite the Labour absence.

Stainburn & Clifton, Allerdale Borough Council

Lab: 354 (54.6%) +25.1%

Con: 294 (45.4%) +28.2%

Lab GAIN from Ind

Southmead, Bristol City Council

Lab: 780 (41.2%) -1.9%

Grn: 729 (38.5%) +19.7%

Con: 279 (14.8%) -13.4%

LDem: 82 (4.3%) -5.7%

TUSC: 22 (1.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Thurston, Mid Suffolk District Council

Grn: 845 (64.4%) +25.2%

Con: 399 (30.4%) -3.5%

LDem: 37 (2.8%) -8.2%

Lab: 32 (2.4%) -4.8%

Grn HOLD

Collingham, Newark & Sherwood District Council

Con: 982 (56.3%) +26.5%

LDem: 594 (34.1%) +18.8%

Lab: 168 (9.6%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Park, North East Lincolnshire Council

Con: 715 (38.8%) +1.8%

Lab: 578 (31.4%) +13.8%

LDem: 478 (26.0%) -2.0%

TUSC: 70 (3.8%) New

Con HOLD

Oundle, North Northamptonshire Council

LDem: 1,683 (47.2%) +22.6%

Con: 1,423 (39.9%) -3.5%

Lab: 337 (9.4%) -4.9%

Grn: 124 (3.5%) -9.8%

LDem GAIN from Con

Collingham Nottinghamshire County Council

Ind: 2,009 (63.8%) New

Con: 898 (28.5%) -11.7%

Lab: 224 (7.7%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Wigston Meadowcourt, Oadby and Wigston Borough Council

Con: 833 (63.4%) +29.3%

LDem: 377 (27.1%) -24.6%

Grn: 133 (9.5%) New

Con GAIN from LDem

Tavistock North, West Devon Borough Council

Con: 379 (39.3%) +24.4%

LDem: 337 (35.0%) +16.3%

Grn: 163 (16.9%) New

Lab: 85 (8.8%) -9.3%

Con GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrats

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.01.22

Five council seats were up for grabs this week in four by-elections.  All seats were held (three Labour, one Tory) except for a free-for-all in North Yorkshire.  That seat went to the Conservatives in a narrow eight vote win after the incumbent Yorkshire Party failed to put anyone up to defend the seat.

In Charnwood, Leicestershire there were two seats on offer after the death of one Labour councillor and the resignation of another.  It was an easy hold for Labour over the second placed Conservative who  intriguingly only fielded one candidate.  UKIP and the British Democratic Party did not field candidates this time.

Labour held in East Lothian, while the Tories held in East Lindsey, Lincolnshire.  Labour and the Skegness Urban District Society did not field candidates in the latter.

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood Borough Council

(two seats)

Lab: 709

Lab: 654

Con: 311

Ind: 149

LDem: 136

Grn: 108

LDem: 104

Grn: 81

Lab HOLD (both seats)

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey District Council

Con: 436 (62.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 267 (38.0%) +33.1%

Con HOLD

Preston, Seton & Gosford, East Lothian Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 1,793 (38.5%) -4.2%

SNP: 1,217 (26.2%) -1.4%

Con: 1,154 (24.8%) +0.7%

Grn: 231 (5.0%) +1.9%

LDem: 136 (2.9%) +0.5%

Ind: 122 (2.6%) New

Lab HOLD (elected at stage 5)

Byram & Brotherton, Selby District Council

Con: 215 (48.1%) +13.4%

Lab: 207 (46.3%) +26.2%

Grn: 25 (5.6%) New

Con GAIN from Yorks

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

Yorks = Yorkshire Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 11.11.21

Seven by-elections this week with eight seats up for grabs.  Four of the vacancies came about due to the resignation of independent councillors.  Labour gained one of these in Cardiff, while the Tories almost had a clean sweep in North Kesteven.  Three Lincolnshire independents resigned simultaneously, including two in Metheringham where there was drama in the battle for the second seat.  The Conservatives took first place, but tied for second with an independent.  Lots were drawn and the independent won, robbing the Tories of a clean sweep.

Elsewhere, Plaid held a seat they had previously won unopposed and the Greens held in Thanet.  Labour held in Lancaster, which is no great surprise as this ward included the university.  The Conservatives held in Melton, Leicestershire, despite the nature of the vacancy.  The incumbent Tory had been struck off after having failed to attend a single council meeting.

There is little evidence from these results to suggest the Tories are taking a hit from the ongoing sleaze row.

Heath, Cardiff City Council

Lab: 1,729 (47.1%) +16.1%

Con: 1,128 (30.8%) +2.5%

LDem: 561 (15.3%) +11.5%

Plaid: 250 (6.8%) +0.5%

Lab GAIN from Ind

Llandrillo, Denbighshire County Council

Plaid: 179 (44.0%)

Ind: 140 (34.4%)

Con: 80 (21.6%)

Plaid HOLD (previously elected unopposed)

University & Scotforth Rural, Lancaster City Council

Lab: 216 (46.1%) +5.0%

Grn: 193 (41.2%) +11.0%

Con: 44 (9.4%) -7.2%

LDem: 16 (3.4%) -8.8%

Lab HOLD

Melton Dorian, Melton Borough Council

Con: 362 (56.0%) +3.9%

Lab: 284 (44.0%) New

Con HOLD

Metheringham, North Kesteven District Council

(two seats)

Con: 424 (23.7%)

Ind: 404 (22.6%)

Con: 404 (22.6%)

Ind: 369 (20.6%)

Lab: 85 (4.7%)

Lab: 69 (3.8%)

LDem: 29 (1.6%)

Con GAIN from Ind (one seat)

Ind HOLD (one seat after lots drawn)

Sleaford Castle, North Kesteven District Council

Con: 135 (42.2%) +10.2%

Lab: 93 (29.1%) -2.9%

Ind: 49 (15.3%) New

Ind: 22 (6.9%) New

LDem: 21 (6.6%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Thanet Villages, Thanet District Council

Grn: 638 (60.0%) +36.8%

Con: 358 (33.7%) +8.9%

LDem: 67 (6.3%) -15.7%

Grn HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Grn = Green

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.09.21

Of this week's six contests only one seat changed hands, a surprise gain for the Conservatives in Cambridgeshire.  The Tories also successfully held a seat in Leicestershire and there is little sign yet that they are paying an electoral price for the ongoing crises facing Britain.

Having lost a seat to the Tories, the Lib Dems held their other two seats, while Labour and a local resident's association successfully defended one each.

Shepshed West, Charnwood Borough Council

Con: 511 (43.6%) +2.2%

Lab: 316 (26.9%) +0.9%

Grn: 302 (25.7%) +14.4%

LDem: 44 (3.8%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

Soham North, East Cambridgeshire District Council

Con: 484 (50.8%) +8.6%

LDem: 369 (38.8%) -9.1%

Lab: 71 (7.5%) -2.5%

Grn: 28 (2.9%) New

Con GAIN from LDem

Exe Valley, East Devon District Council

LDem: 190 (36.9%) -19.8%

Con: 164 (31.8%) -11.5%

Lab: 161 (31.3%) New

LDem HOLD

Cuddington, Epsom & Ewell Borough Council

RA: 585 (56.0%) -9.1%

Lab: 207 (19.8%) +9.2%

Con: 135 (12.9%) +1.3%

LDem: 117 (11.2%) -1.5%

RA HOLD

Wormholt & White City, Hammersmith & Fulham London Borough Council

Lab: 1,462 (70.0%) -5.6%

Con: 431 (20.6%) +6.3%

Grn: 110 (5.3%) New

LDem: 86 (4.1%) -3.2%

Lab HOLD

Kendal North, South Lakeland District Council

LDem: 622 (46.9%) +8.7%

Grn: 527 (39.8%) +13.0%

Con: 122 (9.2%) -12.1%

Lab: 54 (4.1%) -9.6%

LDem HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

RA = Residents Association