Showing posts with label General Election 2019. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Election 2019. Show all posts

Sunday, 29 December 2019

IN BREXIT DENIAL

Eleven ousted Labour MPs and failed candidates have written an open letter to the Observer in which they bemoan their losses and mention Brexit just once.  Labour Remainers who lost their seats in the Brexit heartlands are in complete denial about the impact of their remoaning.  The odious Mary Creagh is the first signatory on the letter, still railing about Corbyn and the hard left while ignoring the fact her 63% Leave voting constituents were furious with her arrogant Brexit stance.  Likewise Anna Turley's 68% Leave voting Redcar constituents, the 68% Leave seat of Wolverhampton North East, 58% Leave Wrexham, 59% Leave Sedgefield and 58% Leave Stockton South.

To lay the blame solely at Corbyn's feet is disingenuous to say the least, particularly for the likes of Creagh and Turley, whose constant remoaning clearly riled their constituents.  Their letter is reproduced in full below.

We have all given significant periods of our lives to the Labour movement, most recently as MPs and candidates in the general election. We have been horrified by the damage that Tory government austerity has wreaked in our communities, crippling our NHS, starving our struggling schools and transport networks, normalising street sleeping and failing to keep our streets safe. Yet sadly, when it came to polling day, Labour was led to its biggest defeat since 1935. We lost seats in every region and nation with a swing against us in every social class – with the biggest swing against us from the poorest people.

The scale of this defeat means that we have to look unflinchingly at what went wrong, way beyond a simple review, welcome as that might be. We need to be honest about why our outgoing leadership’s reflexive anti-western worldview was so unpopular and address the reasons.

We were rejected on doorsteps not just because of our woolly, changing position on Brexit, or in Scotland because of our weak commitment to the union, but because the very people we were supposed to be fighting for did not think the policies in our manifesto related to their lives. The focus on nationalisation and uncontrolled spending commitments meant people simply didn’t believe us. Sadly, this was particularly true with those most affected by the poverty and injustice that 10 years of Tory government has created.

Lastly, cronyism at the top of our party and repeated unwillingness to stand up to the stain of antisemitism were constantly relayed back to us on the doorstep, shaming the traditional values of our once great anti-racist party.

We are devastated that, across the country, we can no longer help our residents to whom we have devoted ourselves, still struggling under a Tory government. It is our duty to speak up now, so that our leadership candidates keep these people at the heart of their campaigns to lead our party.

The challenge for the eventual winner is immense. We need to win 150 seats in every corner of the country, gaining votes from a coalition of communities. Labour needs to be in government – and for that, fundamental change at the top of our party is required. Only this will help us recover from the catastrophic loss of 12 December.


Mary Creagh, former MP for Wakefield
Emma Reynolds, former MP for Wolverhampton North East
Anna Turley, former MP for Redcar
Dr Paul Williams, former MP for Stockton South
Gerard Killen, former MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Martin Whitfield, former MP for East Lothian
Mary Wimbury, Labour candidate for Wrexham
Sheila Gilmore, Labour candidate for Edinburgh East
Ashley Dalton, Labour candidate for Rochford and Southend East
Kate Watson, Labour candidate for Glasgow East
Phil Wilson, former MP for Sedgefield

Tuesday, 24 December 2019

IN FOCUS PREDICTIONS

Prior to the general election we focused on eight UK cities as part of our 'In Focus' weekly feature.  We included an election prediction for each of the 44 constituencies within those cities.  We are quite proud to announce we only got two wrong.  Of course it's relatively easy to predict most holds as they are generally safe seats, it's seat changes that are more difficult to forecast.  We said five seats would change hands and we got three of those correct.

First of all the ones we got correct...

Birmingham Edgbaston (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Hall Green (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Hodge Hill (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Ladywood (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Northfield (Con GAIN)
Birmingham Perry Barr (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Selly Oak (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Yardley (Lab HOLD)
Sutton Coldfield (Con HOLD)
Blackley & Broughton (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Central (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Gorton (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Withington (Lab HOLD)
Wythenshawe & Sale East (Lab HOLD)
Glasgow Central (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow East (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow North (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow North East (SNP GAIN)
Glasgow North West (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow South (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow South West (SNP HOLD)
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield Central (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield Heeley (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield South East (Lab HOLD)
Penistone & Stocksbridge (Con GAIN)
Liverpool Riverside (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool Walton (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool Wavertree (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool West Derby (Lab HOLD)
Garston & Halewood (Lab HOLD)
Bristol East (Lab HOLD)
Bristol North West (Lab HOLD)
Bristol South (Lab HOLD)
Bristol West (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff Central (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff North (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff South & Penarth (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff West (Lab HOLD)
Romsey & Southampton North (Con HOLD)
Southampton Itchen (Con HOLD)
Southampton Test (Lab HOLD)

And the ones we got wrong...

Birmingham Erdington (Lab HOLD) - we said this would be a Con GAIN
Sheffield Hallam (Lab HOLD) - we said this would be a Lib Dem GAIN

In Focus should return at some point in the New Year.

NANDY VISITS ASHFIELD

Lisa Nandy spent Monday visiting former Labour voters in the Nottinghamshire constituency of Ashfield.  There's little doubt that she's gearing up for a leadership campaign with this latest stunt.  Accompanied by the former Labour MP for Ashfield, Nandy was told by one former Labour voter that people didn't want to return to the chaotic 1970s with Corbyn's policies.  Another told her that Labour no longer cared for the north and was now the party of students and inner London.  Watch below.


Gloria De Piero was Ashfield's incumbent going into this election and had a wafer thin majority.  She stood down rather than contest the seat and it turned out to be a wise move.  The Labour vote plummeted and the Tories ended up taking the seat despite haemorrhaging 1,600 votes themselves.  It was a strange place to come to be asking voters why they switched to the Conservatives because in this case most Labour votes were lost to the Ashfield Independents who finished second.

Ashfield general election 2019

Lee Anderson (Con) 19,231 (39.3%) -2.4%
Jason Zadrozny (Ind) 13,498 (27.6%) +18.4%
Natalie Fleet (Lab) 11,971 (24.4%) -18.1%
Martin Daubney (Brexit) 2,501 (5.1%) New
Rebecca Wain (Lib Dem) 1,105 (2.3%) +0.3%
Rose Woods (Green) 674 (1.4%) +0.6%

Wednesday, 18 December 2019

A BIT RICH MARY!

Fresh from reportedly berating her party leader last night in a 20 minute tirade, defeated Wakefield MP Mary Creagh took her grievances to the airwaves.  Creagh lashed out at Corbyn in multiple interviews, blaming him for the election disaster and failing to take responsible for it.  Come again?  Talk about someone failing to take responsibility Mary - how about looking a bit closer to home?  You've spent the last three and a half years trying to overturn the 63% Leave vote in your own constituency.  You also accuse Corbyn of 'narcissism'.  How's this for narcissism - campaigning for a second referendum to overturn the first and then going into an election thinking that your Leave voting constituents would meekly return you as their MP?


Abhorrent woman.  PS. if you care so much about your staff, how about sharing around some of that £30,000 'golden goodbye' payout you're going to receive now that you've been voted out?

FAREWELL (AND GOOD RIDDANCE)

We made this very emotional video chronicling some of those MPs who perished in the Tory election victory.  How apt that we begin with the hideous, self-serving and eternally out of touch Mary Creagh who this evening reportedly confronted Corbyn and gave him a 20 minute lecture about how it was his leadership that cost Remainer MPs like her their place on the gravy train.  Never mind the fact that her constituents returned a 63% Leave vote after which she spent three and a half years trying to overturn - that had nothing to with it?


We couldn't include all the MPs who lost their jobs as there wasn't a sad piano track long enough, but for those featured you can see how they bowed out in their 2019 election results below.  The incumbents are in bold (changes versus 2017 general election).

Wakefield - 63% Leave

Imran Ahmad-Khan (Con) 21,283 (47.3%) +2.3%
Mary Creagh (Lab) 17,925 (39.8%) -9.9%
Peter Wiltshire (Brexit) 2,725 (6.1%) New
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem) 1,772 (3.9%) +1.9%
Ryan Kett (Yorks) 868 (1.9%) -0.6%
Stephen Whyte (Ind) 454 (1.0%) -1.5%

Kensington - 69% Remain

Felicity Buchan (Con) 16,768 (38.3%) -3.9%
Emma Dent Coad (Lab) 16,618 (38.0%) -4.3%
Sam Gyimah (Lib Dem) 9,312 (21.3%) +9.1%
Vivien Lichtenstein (Green) 535 (1.2%) -0.8%
Jay Aston Colquhoun (Brexit) 384 (0.9%) New
Roger Phillips (Christian) 70 (0.2%) New
Harriet Gore (Touch Love) 47 (0.1%) New
Scott Dore (Workers) 28 (0.1%) New

Peterborough - 61% Leave

Paul Bristow (Con) 22,334 (46.7%) -0.1%
Lisa Forbes (Lab) 19,754 (41.3%) -6.7%Beki Sellick (Lib Dem) 2,334 (4.9%) +1.5%
Mike Greene (Brexit) 2,127 (4.4%) New
Joseph Wells (Green) 728 (1.5%) -0.3%
Luke Ferguson (Ind) 260 (0.5%) New
Tom Rogers (Christian) 151 (0.3%) New
The Very Raving Mr P (Loony) 113 (0.2%) New

Beaconsfield - 51% Remain

Joy Morrissey (Con) 32,477 (56.1%) -9.1%
Dominic Grieve (Ind) 16,765 (29.0%) NewAlexa Collins (Lab) 5,756 (9.9%) -11.5%
Zoe Hatch (Green) 2,033 (3.5%) +1.0%
Adam Cleary (Ind) 837 (1.4%) New

Heywood & Middleton - 62% Leave

Chris Clarkson (Con) 20,453 (43.1%) +5.1%
Liz McInnes (Lab) 19,790 (41.7%) -11.6%Anthony Smith (Lib Dem) 2,073 (4.4%) +2.2%
Nigel Ainsworth-Barnes (Green) 1,220 (2.6%) New

Bridgend  - 50.28% Leave

Jamie Wallis (Con) 18,193 (43.1%) +3.3%
Madeleine Moon (Lab) 17,036 (40.3%) -10.3%
Jonathan Pratt (Lib Dem) 2,368 (5.6%) +3.5%
Leanne Lewis (Plaid) 2,013 (4.8%) +0.7%
Robert Morgan (Brexit) 1,811 (4.3%) New
Alex Harris (Green) 815 (1.9%) -1.9%

North West Durham - 55% Leave

Richard Holden (Con) 19,990 (41.9%) +7.5%
Laura Pidcock (Lab) 18,846 (39.5%) -13.3%John Wolstenholme (Brexit) 3,193 (6.7%) New
Michael Peacock (Lib Dem) 2,831 (5.9%) -1.2%
Watts Stelling (Ind) 1,216 (2.6%) New
David Sewell (Green) 1,173 (2.5%) +1.4%
David Lindsay (Ind) 414 (0.9%) New

Dewsbury - 57% Leave

Mark Eastwood (Con) 26,179 (46.4%) +1.3%
Paula Sherriff (Lab) 24,618 (43.7%) -7.3%John Rossington (Lib Dem) 2,406 (4.3%) +2.1
Philip James (Brexit) 1,874 (3.3%) New
Simon Cope (Green) 1,060 (1.9%) +0.1%
Sir Archibald Earl Eaton Stanton (Loony) 252 (0.4%) New

Bolsover - 70% Leave

Mark Fletcher (Con) 21,791 (47.4%) +6.9%
Dennis Skinner (Lab) 16,492 (35.9%) -16.0%
Kevin Harper (Brexit) 4,151 (9.0%) New
David Hancock (Lib Dem) 1,759 (3.8%) +0.9%
David Kesteven (Green) 758 (1.7%) New
Ross Walker (Ind) 517 (1.1%) New
Natalie Hoy (Ind) 470 (1.0%) New

Wolverhampton South West - 54% Leave

Stuart Anderson (Con) 19,864 (48.3%) +4.1%
Eleanor Smith (Lab) 18,203 (44.3%) -5.1%
Leo Grandison (Brexit) 1,028 (2.5%) New
Bart Ricketts (Lib Dem) 2,041 (5.0%) +3.1%

Crewe & Nantwich - 60% Leave

Kieran Mullan (Con) 28,704 (53.1%) +6.1%
Laura Smith (Lab) 20,196 (37.4%) -9.7%Matthew Theobald (Lib Dem) 2,618 (4.8%) +2.4%
Matt Wood (Brexit) 1,390 (2.6%) New
Te Ata Browne (Green) 975 (1.8%) New
Andrew Kinsman (Libertarian) 149 (0.3%) New

Broxtowe - 53% Leave

Darren Henry (Con) 26,602 (48.1%) +1.3%
Greg Marshall (Lab) 21,271 (38.5%) -6.8%
Anna Soubry (Change) 4,668 (8.5%) New
Kat Boettge (Green) 1,806 (3.3%) +2.0%
Amy Dalla Mura (End Dem) 432 (0.8%) New
Teck Khong (Ind) 321 (0.6%) New
David Bishop (Elvis) 172 (0.3%) New

East Dunbartonshire - 73% Remain

Amy Callaghan (SNP) 19,672 (37.1%) +6.8%
Jo Swinson (Lib Dem) 19,523 (36.8%) -3.8%Pam Gosal (Con) 7,455 (14.1%) -0.5%
Callum McNally (Lab) 4,839 (9.1%) -5.4%
Carolynn Scrimgeour (Green) 916 (1.7%) New
Rosie Dickson (Ind) 221 (0.4%) New
David Murdo MacKay (UKIP) 208 (0.4%) New
Liam McKechnie (Family) 197 (0.4%) New

Redcar - 68% Leave

Jacob Young (Con) 18,811 (46.1%) +12.8%
Anna Turley (Lab) 15,289 (37.4%) -18.1%Jacqui Cummins (Brexit) 2,915 (7.1%) New
Karen King (Lib Dem) 2,018 (4.9%) -1.8%
Frankie Wales (Ind) 1,323 (3.2%) New
Rowan Mclaughlin (Green) 491 (1.2%) New

Derby North - 54% Leave

Amanda Solloway (Con) 21,259 (45.2) +0.8%
Tony Tinley (Lab) 18,719 (39.8%) -8.7%
Greg Webb (Lib Dem) 3,450 (7.3%) +2.7%
Alan Graves (Brexit) 1,908 (4.1%) New
Helen Hitchcock (Green) 1,046 (2.2%) New
Chris Williamson (Ind) 635 (1.4%) New

Tuesday, 17 December 2019

ETERNAL LOSERS OF THE LEFT

Everything that we've been saying for years has been condensed by Paul Joseph Watson into this awesome ten minute video.  Focusing on Labour's latest election humiliation, Watson explores the reasons for it and the moronic inability of the hard left to comprehend why it keeps happening.  All the sad losers are in here - Ash Sarkar, Little Owen, Paul Mason, Femi Izawally, Steve Coogan, Lily Allen and Hugh Grant.  We really ought to stop telling them how they're going wrong, one day they may get the message.  Then again, five minutes on Twitter will tell you that these hateful morons are never going to get the message.  It's on repeat, bring on 2024.


We can't share this video to Facebook because Paul Joseph Watson is banned from that platform, but you can subscribe to his YouTube channel here.  You can subscribe to our channel too while you're at it.

Sunday, 15 December 2019

MOST SHARED: WEEK 243

The consequences don't bear thinking about if the election had turned out very differently.  So forgive us this simple meme - if the shoe was on the other foot we'd have a lot more than memes to be worried about.  Shared 2,967 times via the Facebook page.

PARTY OF LONDON

by Richey Edwards

Following their election defeat many Labour supporters immediately began repeating exactly the same mistakes that led them to such a heavy defeat.  It was the same response that followed the EU referendum and fed growing resentment over the following three and a half years.  If Labour thought they could get away with talking down to the people in their heartlands, those who elected them without fail for a century, taking them for granted and trying to reverse their 2016 decision - they were sorely mistaken.  Yes, the election humiliation was about more than just Brexit, they lost seats across the south of England too, including even in their new heartland of London.  But primarily, above all else they were hammered by working class voters in the north of England.

BTLP's #PartyOfLondon hashtag was not understood by everyone.  That didn't matter, it wasn't for everyone.  Its target was the Labour heartlands - the old heartlands of the north of England and south Wales, places that were also the Brexit heartlands.  We tapped into the perception that Labour had abandoned its working class northern roots in favour of a metropolitan London elite.  Its activist base was increasingly being drawn from the middle classes and pro-Brexit voices were slowly being stamped out and excommunicated.  All of the top people on Labour's front bench represented London seats, including all four of those who would occupy the Great Offices of State - Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry.  With the exception of Corbyn, they all indicated they would back 'Remain' in Labour's People's Vote con, in itself an infuriating insult to those who had voted Leave.  Just behind those four was a London barrister and anointed knight Sir Keir Starmer.  His whiny voice was anathema to those northern Leave voters and the fact he'd been appointed Shadow Brexit Secretary whilst consistently opposed to Brexit just made it all the more nauseating.  That he is one of the favourites to succeed Corbyn goes to show that Labour still doesn't get it, even now.

Imagine how the election of Starmer would go down with those northern working class voters who have just ditched Labour and astonishingly crossed straight over to the Tories because of decades of being taken for granted by London elites?  It would only reinforce that 'Party of London' perception.

It also didn't go unnoticed that after the election was called the London-based leadership did everything it could to parachute London candidates into northern seats vacated by those that had been driven out or retired.  Islington councillors popped up in places like Liverpool, Leicester and Coventry as potential Westminster candidates.  In West Bromwich Tom Watson's replacement was a Lambeth councillor who prints anti-Brexit messages on the receipts at his London kebab shops.  West Bromwich voted overwhelmingly to Leave.  The imposition of such candidates sparked huge resentment in local constituency parties that was reported in various local news media outlets.  Again, the perception that Labour had abandoned the Midlands and the north was strengthened.

One of the only decent remaining Labour MPs to make it to this election was Caroline Flint.  A Londoner herself, she represented a Yorkshire seat and had backed Remain in 2016.  However, rather than lie through gritted teeth like many of her colleagues did following the result, she fought to get Brexit done.  Cynics might suggest that she did so to placate her Leave-voting constituents and therefore survive the onslaught that was to come.  The fact she saw it coming actually put her head and shoulders above her Yorkshire colleagues in Westminster.  The likes of Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and the hideous Mary Creagh thought they could continue to bash Brexit and their dopey constituents would continue to slavishly cross their boxes on the ballot paper.  Flint knew there would be consequences and she knew the reasons why.

On election night it was tragically Flint herself that paid the price for the actions of others.  Miliband and Cooper survived, but only just, and saw their majorities slashed so fine that their once safe Labour seats are now marginals.  Creagh departed Westminster, but at her election count used her speech to attack Brexit one last time and in doing so further alienate her former Wakefield constituents.  She was still in denial, something Flint had never been.  She explained to Sophy Ridge on Sky this morning what led to so many seat losses in the north, including her own. Flint namedropped Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry as prime examples of the London elitist snobbery that had taken the north for granted.



Labour is now in serious trouble going forward from this election defeat.  The perception that it is a party of London is no longer a theory, it is fact.  Labour gained one seat at this election - one.  An astonishing fact in itself, but if you were told this at any point in Labour's history your mind would immediately have drifted to the north, Midlands, Wales or Scotland as to where that seat was won.  It was actually won in Putney, a leafy well-to-do heavily Remain voting seat in south-west London.

Labour is far from its roots and is in a state of denial.  Elect Keir Starmer or Lady Nugee as leader by all means.  Then watch what remains of your so-called 'red wall' in the north crumble into dust at the next election.  That's why I'm backing either of those for the leadership.

Saturday, 14 December 2019

THE WEEK IN CARTOONS 8-14 DEC 2019

General Election Week

08.12.19 - Andy Davey, Sunday Telegraph 
08.12.19 - Matt Pritchett, Sunday Telegraph
10.12.19 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard
10.12.19 - Morten Morland, The Times 
10.12.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
11.12.19 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard
11.12.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph
11.12.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
12.12.19 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard 
12.12.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph
12.12.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
12.12.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
13.12.19 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard
13.12.19 - Steven Hamley, The Herald
14.12.19 - Bob Moran, Daily Telegraph 
14.12.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times

LEFTISTS PILE ON ROD

Corbynistas were cock-a-hoop about the celebrity endorsements rolling in over the course of the campaign.  Not many came out for Boris it has to be said, a fact that the balloon heads following Corbyn couldn't help but keep reminding their Twitter followers about.  But what happens when a celeb endorses the Conservatives or merely criticises Corbyn?  That's right, they're harassed to the moon and back by the spiteful morons of the left.  Point in case - Rod Stewart this very day.  The rock star made a throwaway remark in a tweet celebrating his latest number one album.  In between references to fellow musicians Robbie Williams and Pete Townshend, he had the audacity to congratulate Boris Johnson.


Cue the hate.

Of course there's always two sides...

MIDDLE CLASS KIDS AGAINST DEMOCRACY

An overwhelmingly white middle-class mob descended on Downing Street on Friday evening to protest against the democratically elected government.  Hours after Boris Johnson called for national healing to begin, the leftists took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction that they lost.  Again.

Did this happen in 1997?  2001?  2005?  Of course not.  So is such intolerance endemic of the left, is it a generational thing, or is it a mixture of both?  Clearly, the hard left has a problem because its ideology is routinely rejected in Western democratic votes.  However, older leftists are used to seeing their politics fail and are not riled by failure in the same way as younger leftists.  Most of the people ranting and raving in the streets of our capital were very young and born into the most privileged generation in human history.  They are used to getting what they want.  They've gotten it most of their lives.  They've never known leftist policies in practice and they've been told that the last Labour government were 'red Tory scum'.  The fact that the last Labour government was the most successful in the party's history, primarily because it abandoned hard left values, really should tell them something.

Whether it's Brexit, Scottish independence or Conservative majorities, there appears to be an inability to accept democratic votes in recent years.  Are we now seeing the fruits of that privileged generation, incapable of humility and grace?  One look at this mob, or their disgusting social media posts is enough to give you the answer.  They're not protesting in Durham or Grimsby, they're in London.  These are middle class privileged individuals who have nothing in common with working class Britain.  What's more, the fact that they are echoing the sentiments of their metropolitan elite elders in belittling working class northerners as 'stupid' and 'racist' for backing Tories and/or Brexit shows that they are neither responsible or intelligent enough to understand how to further their aims through democratic means.  This is why they are nothing but a mindless mob.

Friday, 13 December 2019

HOW THE MOST UNWANTED FARED

It's fair to say Labour got thumped, but how many of our most unwanted list actually got binned?  Last week we conducted a poll on our Facebook page and asked our supporters which one MP they'd most like to see lose their place on the gravy train.  Sadly, only three Labour MPs among the top twenty actually lost their seats, although most of the survivors saw their majorities slashed.  Non-Labour MPs Soubry, Chuka and Grieve did say farewell to Westminster.

1)   Anna Soubry - 234 votes (our prediction - gone)

Gone!  She finished a distant third in Broxtowe behind Labour and the Tories.  To add insult to injury the Tory candidate increased the Conservative majority from her 863 to more than 5,000.

2)   Diane Abbott - 231 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  Diane had a huge majority and she still has, albeit reduced by 2,000.

3)   Yvette Cooper - 137 (our prediction - under threat)

Safe!  Nearly, but not quite enough.  Her 14,499 majority was slashed to just 1,276.  Some have blamed the Brexit Party for her survival, but in actual fact they took thousands of votes off Cooper, not the Tories.  The Tory vote actually went up, while Cooper's plummeted by 11,000.

4)   John McDonnell - 103 (our prediction - likely safe)

Safe!  But he haemorrhaged more than 7,000 votes, halving his majority.

5)   Emily Thornberry - 65 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  She lost more than 3,000 votes, but still has a big majority.

6)   Dominic Grieve - 52 (our prediction - gone tomorrow)

Gone!  Finished an impressive second, beating Labour into third, but he was almost 16,000 behind his Tory replacement.

7)   Ian Blackford - 37 (our prediction - under threat)

Safe!  Despite many Tory and Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems in an attempt to unseat him, Blackford increased his majority by more than 3,000.

8)   Jess Phillips - 35 (our prediction - likely safe)

Safe!  Loudmouth Jess only lost a couple of thousand votes, but the Tories gained and slashed her majority by 6,000.  However, she still has a commanding majority of more than 10,000.

9)   Dave Lammy - 32 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  Still has a huge majority, albeit more than 4,000 votes lighter.

10) Hilary Benn - 15 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  Brexit blocking Benn saw his majority reduced by more than 4,000, but his Remain constituency comfortably re-elected him.

11) Laura Pidcock - 12 (our prediction - under threat)

Gone!  'Future leader' Pidcock was spectacularly binned as the Tories gained North West Durham for the first time in its 134 year history.

11) Barry Sheerman - 12 (our prediction - under threat)

Safe!  His majority was more than halved as all the other parties increased their vote.

11) Chuka Umunna - 12 (our prediction - gone tomorrow)

Gone!  Now a Lib Dem, Chuka ditched his Streatham constituency and stood in the Cities of London and Westminster.  He leapfrogged Labour into second, but the Tories extended their lead.

14) Richard Burgon - 11 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  All the other parties increased their votes in Leeds East, while Dickie's majority was more than halved.

15) Barry Gardiner - 10 (our prediction - likely safe)

Safe!  Expenses cheat Barry saw his majority slashed from 17,061 to just 8,079.

15) Angela Rayner - 10 (our prediction - likely safe)

Safe!  Her majority plummeted from 11,295 to just 4,263.

17) Dennis Skinner - 9 (our prediction - likely gone)

Gone!  The Barnacle had held this seat since 1970, albeit his majority had shrunk over the years.  The Tories had never won Bolsover in its 79 year history, but Skinner was toast and saw two of his ambitions go up in flames.  His defeat meant he lost the opportunity to become Father of the House (after Ken Clarke stood down) and also the record of being the oldest serving Member of Parliament.

18) Naz Shah - 8 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  One of the few Labour MPs to see her majority increase.  Of course it helps when your constituents vote twice and even the dead ones vote at least once.

18) Keir Starmer - 8 (our prediction - safe as houses)

Safe!  Had a huge majority, so he could afford to have it shaved by 3,000.

18) Anna Turley - 8 (our prediction - under threat)

Gone!  She was defending a 9,485 majority, but the Remainer bit the dust as Redcar went blue for the first time its 45 year history.

18) Karl Turner - 8 (our prediction - under threat)

Safe!  But only just.  His 10,396 majority plummeted to just 1,239 as the Brexit Party took thousands of votes from Labour, just not quite enough to turn the seat Tory blue.

SCUFFLES AT QUARTERMASTER'S COUNT



John McDonnell was repeatedly heckled when he addressed his election count in Hayes and Harlington in the early hours of this morning.  A man in a baseball cap yelled "terrorist" and "liar" while others laughed and openly mocked the Quartermaster.  A fight then broke out between several other men.  It's unclear who was involved.  Watch below.


McDonnell saw his majority halved overnight as he haemorrhaged 7,000 votes on a reduced turnout.  The Tories mopped up around 1,500 of those, while the Lib Dems claimed around 2,500.  The Brexit Party could only match what UKIP received in 2017, despite this being a 58% Leave voting seat.

Hayes and Harlington general election 2019

John McDonnell (Lab) 24,545 (55.8%) -10.7%
Wayne Bridges (Con) 15,284 (34.7%) +6.1%
Alexander Cunliffe (Lib Dem) 1,947 (4.4%) +3.2%
Harry Boparai (Brexit) 1,292 (2.9%) New
Christine West (Green) 739 (1.7%) +0.5%
Chika Amadi (Christian) 187 (0.4%) New

Thursday, 12 December 2019

CORBYN'S BIZARRE CAR CRASH PHOTO OP

Jeremy Corbyn arrives to vote

Jeremy Corbyn arrived at his local polling station this morning for what should have been a standard photo opportunity.  What followed was an absolute car crash in which several protesters arrived, one of which dressed as Elmo from Sesame Street.  The protester seemed intent on causing as much disruption as possible and fought with Corbyn's security, at one point taking the head off the costume and placing it on one of his security guards.  Corbyn tries to calm the situation, but to no avail.

To add to the confusion, one of the protesters appeared to be Bobby Smith, a fathers' rights campaigner who is actually standing in Uxbridge against Boris Johnson.

Corbyn's wife Laura (left) didn't look impressed

Watch below as the chaotic scenes unfolded.

IN FOCUS: SOUTHAMPTON

The major seaport of Southampton has been a city since 1964, although it did not obtain full unitary authority status until 1997.  Before this Southampton was administered as a district within Hampshire County Council.  Since then Southampton City Council has been administered by all three of the main parties.  For Westminster elections the city has been fought over by the same parties for decades.  Going into this election the Tories have two of the three seats.


Population (2017 est):  252,400
City Council:  Labour, since 2012
Composition:  Labour (29 cllrs), Conservative (18), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 85.9%, Asian 8.4%, black 2.2, mixed 2.4%, other 1.1%
EU referendum:  54% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Romsey & Southampton North (Caroline Nokes, Con) majority 18,006
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Southampton Itchen (Royston Smith, Con) majority 31

Southampton City Council consists of 16 electoral wards, each returning three councillors.  Labour has controlled the council twice - from 1997-2000 and since 2012.  The Conservatives had control between 2008-2012.  There were eight years of no overall control in the noughties, during which Labour ran a minority administration for two years, followed by the Lib Dems for four years, followed by the Tories for two.  The Lib Dems lost their last council seats in 2014, due in large part to their role in the coalition government.

The last time a party won all the Parliamentary seats in Southampton was following the 1987 general election when the Tories won a clean sweep.  At this time the seat of Romsey did not include any Southampton territory, but boundary changes in 1997 took in one Southampton council ward.  Further boundary changes in 2010 took in another Southampton council ward and it was re-named Romsey and Southampton North.

The constituencies of Test and Itchen are named after the two major rivers that meet here.

Southampton returned a Leave vote in 2016, although the Labour member for Test opposed the triggering of Article 50.  His constituency returned a narrow 50.59% Remain vote.  Leave voting Itchen is currently held by the Conservatives with one of the smallest majorities in the UK at just 31 votes.  None of these seats are expected to change hands at this election.

Southampton Itchen

Incumbent:  Royston Smith (Con), majority 31
Born:  Southampton, 1955
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Leave
Notes:  Former RAF engineer.  Former leader of Southampton City Council.  Elected to Parliament at second attempt.  Recipient of George Medal in 2012 after helping to apprehend an armed killer.

Southampton Itchen has been held by the Conservatives since 2015, before which it was Labour.  Smith is defending one of the smallest majorities in the country.

EU referendum:  60% Leave

General election 2017

Royston Smith (Con) 21,773 (46.5%) +4.8%
Simon Letts (Lab) 21,742 (46.5%) +9.9%
Eleanor Bell (Lib Dem) 1,421 (3.0%) -0.5%
Kim Rose (UKIP) 1,122 (2.4%) -11.0%
Rosie Pearce (Green) 725 (1.6%) -2.6%

General election candidates 2019

Royston Smith (Con)
Simon Letts (Lab)
Liz Jarvis (Lib Dem)
Kim Rose (UKIP)
Osman Sen-Chadun (Green)

BTLP general election prediction:  Con HOLD

Southampton Test

Incumbent:  Alan Whitehead (Lab), majority 11,508
Born:  Middlesex, 1950
First elected:  1997
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Another former leader of Southampton City Council.  Elected to Parliament at the fourth attempt.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 Labour leadership election.

Southampton Test has been held by Labour since 1997, before which it was held by the Conservatives

EU referendum:  51% Remain

General election 2017

Alan Whitehead (Lab) 27,509 (58.7%) +17.4%
Paul Holmes (Con) 16,006 (34.1%) +1.6%
Thomas Gravatt (Lib Dem) 1,892 (4.0%) -0.9%
Andrew Pope (S'oton) 816 (1.7%) New
Keith Morrell (Ind) 680 (1.4%) New

General election candidates 2019

Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Steven Galton (Con)
Joe Richards (Lib Dem)
Philip Crook (Brexit)
Katherine Barbour (Green)
Kev Barry (Ind)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Romsey & Southampton North

Incumbent:  Caroline Nokes (Con), majority 18,006
Born:  Hampshire, 1972
First elected:  2010
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Nokes was elected to Parliament at the third attempt.  A member of Theresa May's cabinet until she was sacked by new PM Boris Johnson.  She was one of 21 MPs to have the whip removed after voting to extend Article 50, but later had the whip restored.  She is defending her seat in this election as a Conservative.

Romsey & Southampton North has been held by the Conservatives since it was created through boundary changes in 2010.  The new entity largely resembled the abolished Romsey constituency, this had been held by the Liberal Democrats since a by-election in 2000.

EU referendum:  54% Remain, strongest Remain vote in Southampton

General election 2017

Caroline Nokes (Con) 28,668 (57.1%) +2.8%
Catherine Royce (Lib Dem) 10,662 (21.3%) +3.5%
Darren Paffey (Lab) 9,614 (19.2%) +7.3%
Ian Callaghan (Green) 953 (1.9%) -2.8%
Don Jerrard (Justice) 271 (0.5%) New

General election candidates 2019

Caroline Nokes (Con)
Craig Fletcher (Lib Dem)
Claire Ransom (Lab)
Geoff Bentley (UKIP)

Note:  This is a Remain Alliance seat where the Green Party have stood aside to give the Liberal Democrats a free run.

BTLP general election prediction:  Con HOLD


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FAIZA'S LAW-BREAKING ACTIVIST

A Labour activist was told off this morning outside a polling station in the London seat of Chingford & Woodford Green.  Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen is trying to overturn Iain Duncan Smith's narrow majority here and it is one of Labour's top targets in the capital.  The activist was trying to hand out leaflets in breach of electoral law, but sadly the policeman posted to the station didn't see a problem with it.  When he is told that the actions were illegal his response was "Is it?".  Poor show, constable.


1.9 Tellers should not display or distribute election material (e.g. billboards, posters, placards or pamphlets) on walls or around the polling place. Any display of such material should be brought to the attention of the Presiding Officer immediately.
(Electoral Commission) 

Chingford & Woodford Green candidates 2019

Iain Duncan Smith (Con)
Faiza Shaheen (Lab)
Geoffrey Seeff (Lib Dem)

Chingford & Woodford Green general election 2017

Iain Duncan Smith (Con) 23,076 (49.1%) +1.2%
Bilal Mahmood (Lab) 20,638 (43.9%) +15.2%
Deborah Unger (Lib Dem) 2,043 (4.4%) -1.1%
Sinead King (Green) 1,204 (2.6%) -1.7%

DIANE'S SHOES

The Shadow Home Secretary has finally emerged this morning following her 'stay at home' orders during the election campaign (and her son's troubles).  In a tweet below from her neighbouring candidate Meg Hillier, the pair are seen outside a train station in Hackney (tweet has now been deleted - albeit rather late in the day having already made the news).


It was eagle-eyed Twitter users who spotted the anomaly...

 

Fair to say Diane has been knocking back those mojitos during her absence!

VOTE TODAY, PLEASE


by Richey Edwards

The polls are open and we are potentially witnessing Britain's final hours of freedom, democracy and economic stability.  A hung Parliament would result in more paralysis and if Jeremy Corbyn was to form a government then Brexit is dead and this country will be in the hands of communists for the first time in our history.  Make no mistake, they would not relinquish power easily, no matter how bad things got for them, or us.  Remember that in communist countries the top people always flourish while everyone else suffers.  At the end of a communist regime the only wealthy people left are those in charge.

If tonight's results begin to suggest Labour could be in coalition territory (courtesy of the SNP), then our country would haemorrhage wealth by the hour.  The pound would crash, businesses would offshore their accounts and business people would head to the airports.  The truth about Labour's claim to 'only' tax the top five per cent is unworkable for one simple reason - they can't be taxed if their money isn't here.  If the wealth is not here to pay for Labour's brazen pledges who pays then?  Sure, they'll borrow, they always do.  That's one of the reasons we've had austerity for the last nine years - the last Labour government bankrupted our nation.  They'll do it again, except this time it will be much, much worse.

Corbyn and McDonnell would crash our economy, there's no doubt about that.  After that happens, the blame game begins.  This is when it becomes truly terrifying.  Corbyn's thugs would be empowered and emboldened by his premiership.  You only have to see the unabridged hate and bile they spew forth on social media to know that it would spill out into the streets as they blame anyone but Corbyn.  The rich will be targeted - any that remain.  Business owners will be targeted, and their businesses.  The press would be hit - not just right-leaning rags, but the BBC and Sky - anyone who is broadcasting the truth.  The Conservatives, Brexit Party, Liberal Democrats, anyone who doesn't share their hard left ideology would be fair game.  And, of course, the Jews.  The word pogrom springs to mind.

Things will go downhill pretty fast and it would take our country possibly decades to recover.  If an alternative government was eventually formed they would have to embark on a period of harsh austerity to try and repair the damage.  However, we know what happens when a government conducts austerity - the opposition take advantage (but never responsibility).  It's a vicious cycle, but one that can only be ended by ensuring we do not give Labour the opportunity to ruin our economy (again).

If there is one thing you do today, vote.

Wednesday, 11 December 2019

PIDCOCK TRIES TO DEFEND ASHWORTH

Following yesterday's disastrous leak for Labour's Jon Ashworth, it was Laura Pidcock's turn to field some awkward questions this morning.  Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid were keen to explore some of Ashworth's remarks with Laura, but she was intent on bringing the conversation back to the NHS.  Labour have been desperate to focus on the NHS this election for very good reason.  Their Brexit policy is a disaster in the north of England, south Wales and the Midlands, areas where Labour couldn't afford to lose seats if they were to stand any chance of winning this election.  As a Remainer, Pidcock is also naturally keen to avoid the Brexit issue.  She is under threat of losing her North West Durham seat tomorrow night to the Conservatives and is predicted to cling on at best.


It's almost impossible to fathom how Pidcock is so often spoke of as a 'future Labour leader'.  If this is the best the hard left have to offer, they will never win an election.

MOST UNWANTED POLL


It's a bit later than promised, but the results from the above Facebook post can finally be revealed.  There were almost two thousand responses when we went through them over the weekend and 186 names were submitted.  Not all of them were defending their seats at this election.  The most obvious example was Ken Clarke (six votes) - he stood down.  Around a quarter of the votes were ineligible because they failed to observe the simple rules set down in the post - excluding party leaders, name one MP.  Votes for Corbyn (there were at least a few dozen) and Swinson (a handful) were ignored, as were votes that named more than one individual (hundreds).  There were also a number of votes rejected that we suspect may have been intended for John McDonnell, but were submitted as 'McDonald' and could have been potentially been intended for his colleague Andy McDonald.

These were the top responses and as you can see it was a very close call between the top two.  In brackets we've included the likelihood of them actually losing their seats.

1)   Anna Soubry - 234 (gone tomorrow)
2)   Diane Abbott - 231 (safe as houses)
3)   Yvette Cooper - 137 (under threat)
4)   John McDonnell - 103 (likely safe)
5)   Emily Thornberry - 65 (safe as houses)
6)   Dominic Grieve - 52 (gone tomorrow)
7)   Ian Blackford - 37 (under threat)
8)   Jess Phillips - 35 (likely safe)
9)   Dave Lammy - 32 (safe as houses)
10) Hilary Benn - 15 (safe as houses)
11) Laura Pidcock - 12 (under threat)
11) Barry Sheerman - 12 (under threat)
11) Chuka Umunna - 12 (gone tomorrow)
14) Richard Burgon - 11 (safe as houses)
15) Barry Gardiner - 10 (likely safe)
15) Angela Rayner - 10 (likely safe)
17) Dennis Skinner - 9 (likely gone)
18) Naz Shah - 8 (safe as houses)
18) Keir Starmer - 8 (safe as houses)
18) Anna Turley - 8 (under threat)
18) Karl Turner - 8 (under threat)