BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted since he was crowned PM.  Labour saw their majority more than halved in Greater Manchester, while simultaneously losing a council seat on that patch to a Muslim independent.  They were overtaken by Reform in an Essex council seat (unable to replicate the two gains they made in that county last week) and they entered a Hampshire contest only to finish last with 41 votes.

The Burnham bounce seen in recent polls is clearly not being reflected in actual elections.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

First preferences

Bev Craig (Lab): 251,449 (47.2%) -16.2%

Sian Astley (Ref): 111,928 (21.0%) +13.5%

Geraldine Coggins (Grn): 64,968 (12.2%) +5.3%

Marlon West (Res): 46,289 (8.7%) New

Phil Eckersley (Con): 41,021 (7.7%) -2.7%

Richard Kilpatrick (LDm): 14,702 (2.2%) -2.0%

Marcus Farmer (Ind): 2,969 (0.6%) New

Second round

Bev Craig (Lab): 309,525 (66.3%) 

Sian Astley (Ref): 157,178 (33.7%) 

Lab HOLD

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power cost taxpayers around £4.7million to stage this by-election, in which only one in four voters bothered to show up.  Burnham wants people to embrace devolution, but judging by this turnout, he's got a lot of work to do to.

This election deployed the supplementary vote system, in which voters record their first and second preferences.  If no candidate surpasses a 50 per cent vote share on first preferences, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes are then added to their existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.  Burnham never needed a run-off, as he received first preference votes of 63 per cent in 2017 and 2024, and 67 per cent in 2021.  Step forward to 2026 and things did not look as rosy for his successor.

The second placed Conservative was more than 350,000 votes behind Burnham in 2024, with Reform lagging further behind in fourth place.  This time around, the Tories slumped to fifth place as Reform surged into second and more than halved Labour's majority.  Even Restore Britain beat Kemi Badenoch's candidate, although both parties rescued their £5,000 deposit.  There was disappointment for the Greens, who finished a considerable way behind Reform in third place.

The count was somewhat controversial, in that it took the entirety of Friday to complete and first preference totals were not confirmed until after 19:00.  An initial declaration was expected by mid-afternoon and officials gave no explanation as to the delay.  A final declaration took a further four hours to arrive, with the Labour candidate beating Reform comfortably in the run-off.  Labour topped the poll in all ten of Greater Manchester's local authorities, with Reform second in all but two - Manchester itself, where the Greens finished with more than twice the Reform vote, and Trafford, where the Conservatives were runners-up.  Reform's best vote share was 30.2 per cent in Wigan, but the closest they came to Labour was in Oldham, where the gap between the two parties was 12.2 per cent.

The winning candidate was Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is a member of the Fabian Society and an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

Andy Burnham will be privately concerned about Labour's performance here.  The by-election was partially an indictment of his own mayoralty and partially an indictment on his new government.  Labour's majority crashed from 351,803 to 152,347.  The atrocious turnout meant that the cost of the election was almost £9 for every vote cast, suggesting widespread apathy with the kind of devolution that Burnham is currently pushing.

There was not even a Burnham bounce in the place where he was coined 'King in the North'.

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.07.26

Twelve seats were up for grabs on Thursday - four Conservative defences, two each for Labour and the Lib Dems, one each for Plaid Cymru and a local independent group, plus two free-for-alls.

Labour only contested eight seats this week and the apparent bounce they enjoyed last week on the back of Starmer's resignation was muted at best.  They collected three wooden spoons, which included tallies of just 14 votes in the Cotswolds and 15 votes in mid-Wales.  Their vote share was mostly down, they lost a seat to Reform in Leicestershire and only just held them off for a narrow hold in Shropshire.

Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 741 (36.5%) -10.0%

Ref: 465 (22.9%) New

Con: 431 (21.3%) -20.0%

Ind: 150 (7.4%) New

Ind: 132 (6.5%) New

LDm: 56 (2.8%) -9.4%

SFP: 54 (2.7%) New

SNP GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)

Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent, who had been serving as an independent since leaving the Conservatives a year after he was elected in 2022.  The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats.  Labour and the Greens remain absent from this ward, which helped the SNP to a relatively easy gain, despite a dip in vote share attributable to multiple newcomers in Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents.  One of the independents was ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.  He couldn't even beat the other independent and finished fifth on first preferences.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,186 (50.0%) +10.8%

Ref: 541 (22.8%) -2.8%

Lab: 343 (14.5%) +3.4%

Grn: 189 (8.0%) -4.1%

Con: 71 (3.0%) -2.3%

LDm: 27 (1.1%) -0.4%

Ind: 13 (0.5%) New

Ind HOLD

An easy defence for local independent group the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents.  The incumbent had been elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent.  He resigned from the council in May.

Karl - Ind HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind HOLD ✔

Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Ind: 1,365 (35.7%) New

Con: 974 (25.5%) +3.7%

Ref: 778 (20.3%) New

Lab: 564 (14.7%) -5.8%

LDm: 142 (3.7%) -11.9%

Ind GAIN from Con

Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'.  He was elected in 2023, having finished third and taking the third and final available seat.  Independent candidates have finished in first place here since 2019 and that remained the case on Thursday, with the Conservatives closing on them slightly, despite an impressive new entry from Reform.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✔

St Michael's, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 344 (58.4%) -10.0%

Con: 112 (19.0%) -12.5%

Ref: 91 (15.4%) New

Grn: 27 (4.6%) New

Lab: 15 (2.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Three new entries took votes away from the only parties that contested this seat in 2023, but it was a routine hold for the Lib Dems nonetheless.  A change of career led to the resignation of their incumbent, who had a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age.  He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years.  He simultaneously stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also held on Thursday (see Cirencester Park below).

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council

Con: 928 (37.9%) -25.0%

Ref: 823 (33.6%) New

LDm: 629 (25.7%) -11.4%

Grn: 68 (7.8%) +2.8%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s.  He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems.  The victorious candidate this time was the deceased's elderly widow, who finished comfortably ahead of second placed Reform despite a significant swing to the newcomers.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 1,369 (58.7%) +6.6%

Con: 429 (18.4%) +2.9%

Ref: 366 (15.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 111 (4.8%0 -1.2%

Lab: 59 (2.5%) -2.6%

LDm HOLD

The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously.  He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025 and his successor held with an expanded share of the vote.  Another wooden spoon for Labour.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council

Ref: 403 (28.2%) +21.5%

Con: 386 (27.0%) +4.5%

Lab: 271 (19.0%) -13.4%

LDm: 270 (18.9%) -11.6%

Grn: 97 (6.8%) -0.9%

Ref GAIN from Lab

This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79, which had a huge impact on the council.  His passing meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader.  The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration.  With Labour losing this seat to Reform, the finely balanced numbers remain in the Tories' favour and they can continue with their own minority administration.  All three of the rainbow parties saw their vote share take a dip here, with Labour plummeting to third.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Glantwymyn, Powys County Council

Pld: 513 (81.8%) -18.2%

Ref: 63 (10.0%) New

Con: 28 (4.5%) New

LDm: 23 (3.7%) New

Pld HOLD

The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7.  Plaid were elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022 and it was a routine hold for them on Thursday, despite the presence of three new entries.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council

Ref: 359 (41.6%) New

LDm: 226 (26.2%) -20.1%

Con: 210 (24.3%) New

Ind: 51 (5.9%) New

Grn: 18 (2.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

A nice result for Reform in rural Wales, turning a defection into a gain.  The incumbent vacated the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen.  She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election.  By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had left Abolish and was elected as an independent.  Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd.  Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council

LDm: 297 (39.7%) -1.1%

Ref: 259 (34.6%) New

Pld: 96 (12.8%) New

Con: 68 (9.1%) -50.2%

Grn: 15 (2.0%) New

Lab: 14 (1.9%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK.  Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025.  He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper was much more crowded on Thursday.  The Tories ended up slumping to fourth, while Reform went straight in at second and lost out by just 38 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 590 (42.9%) -32.2% Ref: 569 (41.4%) New Con: 104 (7.6%) -10.3% Grn: 76 (5.5%) New LDm: 35 (2.5%) -4.4%

Lab HOLD

A narrow 21 vote hold for Labour as they saw their majority crumble with a colossal swing to Reform.  The incumbent Labour councillor has been the town's MP for the last two years, but unlike Scotland and Wales - where Holyrood and Senedd members are forced to relinquish council roles - there is no such mechanism for Westminster MPs.  He only stood down from the council following his recent appointment as a government whip, and even then only after being 'advised' to do so.  His wife continues to serve as a councillor for the same ward.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council

Ref: 505 (42.7%) New Lab: 362 (30.6%) +3.4% Pld: 190 (16.1%) -1.6% Con: 58 (4.9%) New Grn: 49 (4.1%) -6.8%

LDm: 18 (1.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK.  And again, the new MS was never elected as a Reform councillor.  The journeyman was initially elected in 2017 as an independent, joined the Conservatives a year later and then quit the party the following year.  He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year.  Regardless of the incumbent's back and forth, Reform turned this contest into an impressive gain at the first time of asking.  No independents stood this time, while Labour selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.  Worrying that he finished a strong second.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Karl led Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from the 54 seats contested since May 7.  Richey has managed to claw a point back, correctly predicting nine results against Karl's eight and moving back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark.

BY-ELECTIONS 18.06.26

It's an absolute bonanza this week, with no less than three Westminster by-elections and 18 council seats up for grabs.  The full list of results can be found below in three sections, beginning with the big three...

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS

Aberdeen South

Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%

Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%

Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%

Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%

Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%

David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New

Con GAIN from SNP

A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019.  Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion.  The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections.  Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).

Karl - SNP HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP HOLD ✘

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Lara Bird  (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%

Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%

Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%

Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%

Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%

SNP HOLD

This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position.  Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems.  This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election.  It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP.  The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859.  They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Makerfield

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%)  +0.7%

Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%

Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New

Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%

Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%

Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%

Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New

Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%)  New

Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous.  On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997.  Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983.  There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street.  Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

(three seats)

LDm: 2,784 (19.0%)

LDm: 2,746 (18.7%)

LDm: 2,714 (18.5%)

Ref: 1,582 (10.8%)

Ref: 1,573 (10.7%)

Ref: 1,528 (10.4%)

Grn: 237 (1.6%)

Grn: 229 (1.6%)

Lab: 208 (1.4%)

Grn: 204 (1.4%)

LDm HOLD x 3

This election was rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council.  It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away.  The Lib Dems usually romp home here, but the boundaries have been redrawn slightly for this election.  There was a small dip in their vote share, but they held off newcomers Reform with ease.  Intriguingly, Labour only fielded a single candidate.  They needn't have bothered at all.

Karl - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%

Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New

WPB: 609 (18.4%) New

Grn: 200 (6.0%) New

Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%

Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%

Lab HOLD

Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate.  The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents.  Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform.  George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Chelmsford Springfield, Essex County Council

LDm: 3,203 (54.6%) +8.6%

Ref: 1,616 (27.5%) New

Con: 723 (12.3%) -25.1%

Grn: 216 (3.7%) -2.3%

Lab: 110 (1.9%) -7.3%

LDm HOLD

Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council wards, this seat was postponed after the incumbent passed away.  The boundaries were redrawn slightly, which appeared to favour the Lib Dems.  There was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council

(two seats)

Con: 1,084 (24.4%)

Con: 949 (21.3%)

Lab: 470 (10.6%)

Ref: 433 (9.7%)

Lab: 362 (8.1%)

Grn: 353 (7.9%)

Ref: 347 (7.8%)

Grn: 341 (7.7%)

LDm: 63 (1.4%)

LDm: 49 (1.1%)

Con HOLD x 2

This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away.  Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share.  The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent.  The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.

Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔

Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1  ✘

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 496 (33.8%) New

Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%

Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%

LDm: 178 (12.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month.  Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs.  Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 357 (43.4%) New

Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%

Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%

Grn: 71 (8.6%) New

LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way.  There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Rayleigh West, Essex County Council

Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5% LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9% Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3% Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%

Ind: 117 (2.7%) New Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9% Ind: 35 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections.  Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office.  Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below).  Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out.  The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council

Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%

Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%

Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%

LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%

Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%

Ind: 10 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor.  Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor.  This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens.  There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%

Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%

Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%

LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%

Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%

Con HOLD

A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote.  This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council

Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%

Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%

LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%

Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%

Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details).  The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion.  There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out.  Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Mumbles, Swansea Council

Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%

Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%

Ref: 458 (18.3%) New

Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%

Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 118 (4.7%) New

LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd.  The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025.  Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour.  It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Morriston, Swansea Council

Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%

Ref: 882 (31.8%) New

Pld: 569 (21.9%) New

Grn: 107 (4.1%) New

LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%

Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78.  His daughter became his successor, but only just.  She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✘

Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%

Ref: 300 (34.1%) New

Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%

Ind: 78 (8.2%) New

Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%

LDm: 8 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%

Pld HOLD

This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd.  Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%

Ref: 105 (22.0%) New

Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%

Ind: 22 (4.6%) New

YrP: 20 (4.2%) New

Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%

Grn: 11 (2.3%) New

LDm: 2 (0.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month.  This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around.  Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn.  Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%

Ref: 86 (37.4%) New

Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 11 (4.7%) New

Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%

Pld HOLD

The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member.  Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut.  Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

With both lads going mostly like for like this week, Karl's lead was unlikely to be threatened.  Richey bested Karl this week by one seat, cutting his opponent's overall lead down to two.  Both now have more respectable success rates, above 50 per cent.  There are even more council seats up for grabs next week - a whopping 24 - so the numbers are set to change radically again.

PS. This is a bit of fun, but we fully acknowledge the absolute seriousness of these election results.

ANDY FOR HIMSELF

Richey has been out enjoying the sunshine and recording his insights along the way.  In the first of three videos, here he discusses the travesty that is Andy Burnham - who may well be our next Prime Minister.

Watch below or on YouTube (five minute watch)

Nominations for the Makerfield by-election close on Tuesday at 16:00.  At this moment in time, the Green Party do not have a candidate, as their first choice dropped out on the same day they announced his candidacy.  There are calls from within the party to stand down in order to give Burnham a free run, so Reform will be holding their breath and hoping they do not.  Chances of a Reform victory have already been damaged by Rupert Lowe's decision to debut in Makerfield, so for the Greens to pull out at this late stage certainly won't help their chances.

We said people should be careful for what they wish for, and Burnham's succession of Starmer could be the turning point that resuscitates a party that was not just on life support - it was close to death.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 23.04.26

Just the one by-election took place on Thursday, with another having been held on Wednesday.  Reform were defending Thursday's vacancy, the third week in a row they have been on the defence.  However, this time it is not a resignation - the incumbent tragically died from a brain tumour at the age of just 46.  The late Cllr Kevin Towill defected from the Conservatives prior to last year's local elections and gained the seat at the expense of his old party, who were pushed into third.

We expected a Reform hold here, but there was a surprisingly strong challenge from the Greens who came from nowhere to claim second place with almost a quarter of the vote.  Labour should be as deeply concerned about the rise of the Greens to their left as they are about Reform to their right.  With both insurgent parties set to pincer Labour in May, there is every likelihood that the Greens will win more council seats than Labour and - more worryingly for Labour - there is an outside chance Polanski's crazy gang could push Labour into fourth in both the Senedd and the Scottish Parliament.

We are currently witnessing the final weeks of Starmer's premiership, with a resignation likely in May.  If the scale of the electoral disaster is such, he will resign the morning after.  If he opts to cling on a wee bit longer, he will be forced out by cabinet resignations and a total collapse in PLP support.  Labour MPs and potential successors are now merely counting down the days.

Newquay Porth & Tretherras, Cornwall Council

Ref: 645 (30.2%) -7.7%

Grn: 529 (24.8%) New

Ind: 361 (16.9%) New

LDm: 349 (16.3%) -9.9%

Con: 132 (6.2%) -14.6%

Lab: 120 (5.6%) -9.6%

Ref HOLD

Wednesday's by-election was also triggered by the death of an incumbent, the 81-year-old Labour councillor having passed away due to old age.  This was an exceptionally strong Labour ward, with the party having won here in 2024 by more than 1,200 votes.  Despite this, we predicted a Green gain, but defeat to anyone here would have been indicative of the massive scale of Labour's looming electoral disaster in May.  Labour have controlled Salford since its inception as a metropolitan borough in 1974.

As it turned out, this previously solid left-wing ward opted for Reform with a huge swing from Labour.  We predicted that Labour would haemorrhage votes to both the Greens and Reform, but the swing was almost exclusively towards Reform.  The Greens slumped from second to third and ended up with less votes than they received in 2024, while a hard left independent endorsed by Your Party finished last.  The Greens only increased their vote share courtesy of Labour's almost 30 point dip against a low turnout.

This was a devastating result for Labour, but another first for Reform as they added their first Salford council seat.

Barton & Winton, Salford City Council

Ref: 676 (34.9%) New

Lab: 643 (33.2%) -29.1%

Grn: 363 (18.7%) +4.0%

Con: 118 (6.1%) -8.2%

LDm: 94 (4.9%) -3.8%

Ind: 44 (2.3%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

There is now just one more council by-election before the May elections.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.04.26

Thursday delivered a set of fascinating results, with four gains from four wards and some spectacular shifts in voting.  We predicted a mixed bag of results and called one out of four correctly, a step down from our 50 per cent success rate last week.

The free-for-all in Devon was particularly difficult to predict, with no independent candidates in a ward that overwhelmingly backed them last time round.  The Tories were the closest political party on that occasion, but were more than a thousand votes behind the winning candidate.  We thought they would triumph in this well-to-do rural ward, but they slumped to fourth as newcomers the Greens and Reform pushed past them.  However, it was the Lib Dems who stormed to victory, thanks to a huge surge that easily bested second placed Reform.  Labour finished last with just 12 votes.

It was a notional Conservative defence in Bury, with the incumbent having left the party last year following an acrimonious split in the local party.  We predicted a Tory hold, with Reform polling well and Labour slumping to at least third.  Labour did indeed find themselves in third, but it was Reform who triumphed, coming from nowhere to deny the Tories a comeback.

In Luton there was a very strong Lib Dem ward up for grabs.  Their biggest problem in defending the seat was the nature of the incumbent's departure - he was kicked off the council for not attending a single meeting in six months.  Despite this, we saw the Lib Dems holding off a challenge from the independent.  As it turned out, the independent trailed in a pitiful last place and it was Reform who were victorious.  Once again they stormed into first place as newcomers to the ward.

Finally, we get to the Labour defence in Rossendale, Lancashire.  This seat was vacated by an incumbent who upped sticks and left Labour Britain to set up home in Sicily.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Starmer and Reeves.  We predicted a Green gain, with Labour plummeting to at least third and Reform a strong second.  We were spot on with this forecast, as the Greens saw off newcomers Reform by 54 votes.

The Greens did not fare particularly well in the other three seats, with two third places and a fourth.  Reform, on the other hand, were top two finishes all round.  The May elections are now just five weeks away and it's going to be very, very interesting.

Tottington, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 929 (39.5%) New Con: 627 (26.7%) -19.1% Lab: 346 (14.7%) -14.5% Grn: 257 (10.9%) New Ind: 193 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Wigmore, Luton Borough Council

Ref: 576 (32.9%) New

LDm: 533 (30.4%) -24.2%

Grn: 344 (19.6%) +10.5%

Lab: 170 (9.7%) -0.3%

Con: 116 (6.6%) -4.4%

Ind: 13 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Fremington, North Devon District Council

LDm: 752 (49.9%) +42.4%

Ref: 496 (32.9%) New

Grn: 131 (8.7%) New

Con: 116 (7.7%) -4.4%

Lab: 12 (0.8%) -7.8%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Hareholme & Waterfoot, Rossendale Borough Council

Grn: 636 (37.7%) +9.2% Ref: 582 (34.5%) New Lab: 324 (19.2%) -27.9% Con: 115 (6.8%) -17.6% LDm: 31 (1.8%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

LITTLE OWEN LANDS

Everyone's favourite little lefty gobshite has landed in Gorton and Denton for the big by-election.  The Guardian's Owen Jones has shifted his allegiance yet again recently, this time to the Greens, who have overtaken Reform to be the favourites to take the seat on Thursday.

In between campaigning for the open borders lunatics, he has been making videos for his social media followers.  Two days ago he posted a 25 minute video that mostly consisted of vox pop type interviews he'd made with constituents in the street.  He singled one such segment for a post on his social media channels that smacked of the condescending attitude we have come to associate with legacy media hacks.

Despite a plethora of intriguing responses and a variety of endorsements for the three main contenders in Gorton and Denton, the wee man honed in on a short exchange with one particular voter.

Watch below, with Richey's commentary.

Kudos to this lady, she came off eminently better in this clip than little Owen, who doesn't appreciate that small gestures matter a lot to ordinary people.  Manners and etiquette are still important to some folk in the godless debauched anything-goes society promoted by leftists like Jones.  The great irony is that the working classes will be the downfall of an ideology that was founded in their name.  Bourgeois twats like Jones will never comprehend that, as they exist purely in a middle class echo chamber that regards the proletariat with the same kind of disdain they would show towards a piece of dog shit they have stepped in.

The people are rising little man, and regardless of the result in Gorton and Denton they will not swing left.

NEC BLOCKS BURNHAM BID

Labour's National Executive Committee has rejected Andy Burnham's request to be considered for the Gorton and Denton by-election.  The NEC took less than 24 hours to consider his request, which was blocked on the grounds of cost and unity.  The decision was reportedly put to a vote of ten members, which included Shabana Mahmood, Lucy Powell, Ellie Reeves (sister of Rachel) and the PM himself.  Mahmood abstained in her position as chair, while the vote went against Burnham almost unanimously by 8-1.  Powell voted in favour of Burnham, having publicly backed his candidacy.

Prior to the vote, Mahmood told reporters that allowing a directly elected mayor to vacate their post had 'organisational implications' for the party.  While allies of Starmer were keen to block Burnham as a defensive move in order to prevent him manoeuvring for a leadership challenge, party sources are briefing that the decision was primarily down to the cost of a mayoral election to replace Burnham were he to win the by-election.  However, another source was quoted as saying the decision was also motivated by the prospect of a 'divisive campaign'.  It is true that some MPs and activists have declared their reluctance to campaign in Gorton and Denton if Burnham was the candidate.

The move is likely to provoke anger among supporters of Burnham, which includes a significant number of MPs.

BURNHAM GOES FOR IT

Andy Burnham has confirmed he has sought permission from Labour's National Executive Committee to seek the nomination for the forthcoming Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election.  As a directly elected mayor, he must secure permission from the NEC to be considered for selection.

Burnham confirmed the news shortly after the 17:00 deadline he was given in order to make the request.  He will now have to wait for the decision, which could go either way.  Starmer allies on the NEC could deny Burnham's request, which will potentially cause friction among others, who are keen to see the Greater Manchester Mayor back in the Commons.  Lucy Powell, the party's deputy leader, sits on the NEC and has publicly backed Burnham for the seat.

Outside the NEC, Burnham has received public backing from both Sadiq Khan and Ed Miliband.  Angela Rayner is also thought to be on side.  MPs Ian Byrne (Liverpool West Derby) and Chris Hinchcliff (NE Herts) have expressed support.  Fellow MPs Karl Turner (Hull East), Chris Webb (Blackpool South) and Jo White (Bassetlaw) have cautioned against blocking Burnham's request.

Burnham announced his request on X, publishing his letter to the NEC.  His decision to choose X could be seen as a slight towards Starmer, who has made no secret of his contempt for the free speech platform.  Burnham's letter can be read below, in full.

Dear Chair

I write to seek the permission of the NEC to enter the process for the selection of Labour's candidate for the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election.

This has been a difficult decision for me to make and I thought it would help members of the NEC if I shared my reasoning in reaching it.

Of course, nobody wanted or expected a by-election at this time and I have given careful thought to what is in the best interests of our Party and the city-region I represent. With that in mind, I have come to the conclusion that this is the moment to mount the strongest possible defence of what we stand for and what we have built in this city over many generations.

Manchester inspires because it is a place that has always stood for the equality of all people, right back to the cotton workers of 1862 who refused to handle slave-picked cotton. In my time as Mayor, I have drawn strength from that tradition and worked hard to unite people. We are famous for our togetherness and, from that foundation, we are achieving huge success as the UK's fastest-growing city region.

And yet, there is now a direct threat to everything Greater Manchester has always been about from a brand of politics which seeks to pit people against each other. It brings with it a poison we should not let enter our city-region. I see this by-election as the frontline of that fight for the Manchester Way and I feel I owe it to a city which has given me so much to lead it from the front, despite the risks involved.

With your permission to stand, I would run a hopeful and unifying campaign with broad appeal to voters, focusing on the positivity around what we have achieved, whilst at the same time being honest about the alienation people feel from politics.

I left Westminster almost 10 years ago because I felt it too and had a strong sense that it wasn't working for people in our part of the world.

In my current job, I have tried to pioneer a different way of doing things with some success. But I have learnt in my nine years as Mayor that Manchester won't be able to be everything it should be without similar changes at a national level. This is why I feel the need to go back.

When so many people in a city-region like this are struggling to afford the daily basics, they are surely right to question why the country gave away control of them in the first place, in whose interests it is run and why no government of any colour has corrected these things for them.

I applaud this Government for being the first in a long time to face up to them and put people before profit. The progress already made on rail renationalisation, bus re-regulation, the housing crisis and devolution is truly impressive. My role in returning would be to use my experience to help it to go further and faster, as well as communicate the difference it is making. I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister.

I can assure the NEC that, if allowed to stand and successful in the by-election, I would give my all to the subsequent Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election. We have such a powerful story to tell of the change Greater Manchester Labour has brought to the city-region and I am confident we can win and take that success story into a new era.

I hope this makes my reasoning clear and I attach the required form with further information. Out of respect for this internal process, I will not be giving any further public statements until it is concluded beyond the release of this letter. I am sad at the circumstances in which all this has come about and, while he clearly made mistakes, I want to recognise the dedicated service of Andrew Gwynne to this area over many years.

Yours sincerely

Andy Burnham

RT HON ANDY BURNHAM

"I would be there to support the government, not undermine it".  Yeah, right.  Pull the other one.

There may be trouble ahead for the Parliamentary Labour Party and Starmer's leadership, but there are many hurdles to overcome before Burnham can even get close to his desired outcome of challenging the PM.

If he was selected for the by-election, he is by no means guaranteed victory.  Having previously been considered a safe seat, in the current climate it's all to play for and both Reform and the Greens will be looking to take the seat.

WILL HE, WON'T HE?

Andy Burnham has until 17:00 on Saturday to decide if he wants to stand for selection to the Gorton and Denton constituency, vacated by Labour MP Andrew Gwynne two days ago.  His first step towards his ultimate goal of dislodging Keir Starmer from Number Ten is to seek permission to contest the forthcoming by-election.  Labour's National Executive Committee stands in his way and reports suggest the NEC is split on its sympathies.  Some are said to favour the status quo and want to block Burnham's request, while others - like deputy leader Lucy Powell - are said to be in favour of his candidacy.

We suspect Mr Burnham will have been making plenty of phone calls in the last 48 hours, sounding out the potential pitfall of this first step.  He has so far said nothing publicly about his intentions.

Will he, won't he?

IS THIS REALLY BURNHAM'S CHANCE?

by Richey Edwards

Disgraced former minister Andrew Gwynne has sensationally decided to quit Westminster, ostensibly 'on doctor's orders' due to what he has strongly insinuated is a mental health problem.  He is reported to have quit only after he secured a lucrative pension deal with Commons authorities.  Gwynne's departure creates a potential route to the Labour leadership challenge prized by the Mayor of Greater Manchester.  On the face of it, Gwynne's Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton appears to be the perfect vehicle for Andy Burnham to achieve his ultimate goal of replacing Starmer in Number Ten.

However, it won't be that simple, and a significant amount of factors come into play before Burnham 

even gets close to challenging Starmer for the top job.

For Burnham to challenge Starmer, he firstly has to get himself back into the Commons as a Labour MP.  As the self-styled 'King in the North', Burnham will favour a northern seat in order to achieve this, and for a vacancy to arise in Greater Manchester - with a solid existing Labour majority of 13,413 - he is unlikely to get a better opportunity in this parliament.

This could end in humiliating fashion for Burnham, should he go for it.  Failing to get through the selection process wouldn't be the biggest embarrassment, but getting the nod and then failing to hold the seat would be truly humbling, potentially career ending.  What would traditionally be considered a Labour 'safe' seat is no longer safe.  The old political order is crumbling, the game has changed and there is every chance that either Reform or the Greens could dislodge Labour in this forthcoming by-election.

Gorton and Denton, 2024 general election

Andrew Gwynne (Lab) 18,555 (50.8%) -16.4%

Lee Moffitt (Ref) 5,142 (14.1%) +9.2%

Amanda Gardner (Grn) 4,810 (13.2%) +10.7%

Amir Burney (WPB) 3,766 (10.3%) New

Ruth Welsh (Con) 2,888 (7.9%) -11.0%

John Reid (LDm) 1,399 (3.8%) -2.0%

As you can see, there was already a swing away from Labour in 2024, with the benefactors being a combination of Reform, the Greens and Workers Party.  The swing will be even greater this time round, which will bring both Reform and the Greens closer to victory.  The seat is more likely to favour Reform and we would expect the contest to be very tight.

Failure to hold this seat would provide yet another example of how far Labour have slumped in less than two years of government.  Gorton and Denton was created by boundary changes in 2024, but most of the land from which it was amalgamated has been held by Labour for decades.  The new seat took around half of its territory from Manchester Gorton, a seat held by Labour since 1935.  Denton and Reddish - the seat held by Gwynne prior to the boundary change - was held by Labour since its own creation back in 1983.  Manchester Withington had a Lib Dem MP from 2005 to 2015, after which it was taken back by Labour, who had previously held the seat since 1987.

Losing a seat like Gorton and Denton would be hard to bear for such a high profile ego as the 'King in the North'.  The stakes could not be higher and Burnham's well publicised desire to challenge Starmer could rob him of vital activists during a campaign in which he would need to throw the kitchen sink.  A split in support could also prevent him from winning selection, but he may not even get that far.  An elected mayor has to get special permission from the party to contest a Westminster seat, which could be denied.  He could resign his mayoralty in order to work around this first obstacle, but that would be seen in a very poor light and could hinder him in later stages, when he will need to call upon the local CLP, MPs and party members for support.

Now let's say that Burnham gets approval to run, wins selection and then successfully holds the seat for Labour.  Having re-entered the House of Commons as an MP, he will have a new set of obstacles to get what he ultimately desires.  Firstly, there needs to be a will to replace Starmer.  While Starmer is perceived by the majority of the electorate as a catastrophic disaster, Labour's polling has improved in recent polls.  YouGov now has Labour back in second place behind Reform, having halved Reform's poll lead from 10 points to five in just a month.  It's doubtful that Starmer can keep up this momentum, and there is a potentially very embarrassing trial looming large in April, involving three young 'aspiring male models' from eastern Europe.

Leadership challenges are usually born out of discontent, much of which is orchestrated.  However, in order to sow dissent successfully, plotters need negative circumstances.  This wasn't a problem when Jeremy Corbyn's leadership was stumbling in 2016.  Negative publicity, poor polling and a desire to scapegoat Corbyn for the EU referendum result, all combined to create the negative circumstances required to launch a leadership challenge, aided by the loss of a no confidence vote and a string of resignations from his shadow front bench.

Corbyn easily survived the leadership challenge from little known backbencher Owen Smith and went on to exceed expectations in Theresa May's absurd snap general election of 2017.  Taking the Tory majority away meant that Brexit could be stalled indefinitely and this saved Corbyn's leadership from any further attempts to mount a challenge.

Burnham could try and mount a challenge without significant negative circumstances, but it would not be wise.  If Starmer is seen to have steadied the ship after a disastrous 2025, MPs would be less inclined to support a challenge.  Unpopular leaders are much easier to dislodge.  Burnham would be best equipped to bide his time, but not too much time as his slim chances of rescuing Labour's majority diminishes the closer the end of the parliamentary term.  He would need to sow a little dissent in the ranks, but not too much as no-one likes a concerted plotter.  It's a tightrope.

Alternatively, he could wait for another plotter to come along and allow them to do the ground work in triggering a challenge and then jump on the ballot paper.  Either way, Burnham would have to canvass and gain the support of 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party in order to get on the ballot.  This is double the threshold since the last leadership challenge, the party having voted to increase it from 10 per cent in 2021.  Having achieved that, the challenger then has to secure nominations from five per cent of Constituency Labour Parties and/or Labour affiliates such as trades unions.

If Burnham succeeded in mounting a solo challenge, the party would be entering new territory and the self-styled King would be making history, regardless of whether or not he defeats Starmer in the ballot.  No Labour Prime Minister has ever faced a leadership challenge, let alone one in which a fifth of Labour MPs are required to turn on the incumbent.

The ultimate question is then answered by the Labour membership and affiliate supporters - stick with Starmer or take the plunge with Burnham?  It's anyone's guess as to which way that would go.

The whole process from start to finish is an exceptionally tall order for Burnham and he may choose to duck out from the off.  The possibilities may be too tempting to miss out, but of course he would need to get that special permission first.  At the time of writing, he has said precisely nothing about Gwynne's departure.

As for Andrew Gwynne, he may still yet be remembered as the man who made it possible for Burnham to dislodge Starmer, but he is more likely to go down in history for the WhatsApp scandal.  And quite rightly so!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.11.25

Seven seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with Labour on the defence in the north Yorkshire borough of Redcar and Cleveland.  No-one had come close to unseating Labour in this ward previously, but the Reform juggernaut was new in town and they missed out on a gain by a margin of just 25 votes!

Labour were also on the defence in Macclesfield, where the disgraced incumbent was elected on their ticket in 2019.  Cllr Ashley Farrall was suspended by the party last year after being charged with assaulting his partner.  He was cleared of the charge, but later convicted of perverting the course of justice and is now serving a twelve month sentence.  Labour had a huge majority here, but the Green Party dislodged them with a huge swing.

Elsewhere, there were some interesting results.  North of the border, a free-for-all election went to the Conservatives, despite finishing second to Reform on first preference votes.  By the time all the transfer votes were whittled down, the Tory candidate pipped Reform to what would have been a stunning victory first time out.

Reform fared even better south of the border, taking two Tory seats - one of which by the ultra thin margin of three votes.  The merry-go-round continued in Greater Manchester, where the Tories usurped the Green Party.  Despite Trafford Council being under Labour for six years, they did not even bother contesting this seat.

Labour's vote was down everywhere they stood, including a pathetic nine votes in one of two Warwickshire seats.

Macclesfield Central, Cheshire East District Council

Grn: 750 (41.8%) +19.7%

Lab: 513 (28.6%) -25.7%

Ref: 283 (15.8%) New

Con: 164 (9.1%) -4.5%

Eql: 45 (2.5%) New

LDm: 40 (2.2%) -7.7%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Stranraer and the Rhins, Dumfries and Galloway Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,386 (34.4%) New

Con: 1,302 (33.5%) -7.4%

SNP: 541 (13.9%) -9.1%

Lab: 239 (6.1%) -3.7%

Ind: 207 (5.3%) New

Grn: 141 (3.6%) +1.1%

LDm: 96 (2.5%) New

Hrt: 27 (0.7%) New

Con GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 7)

Ashdown & Conquest, East Sussex County Council

Ref: 797 (32.2%) New

Grn: 607 (24.5%) +16.4%

Con: 494 (19.9%) -39.8%

Lab: 395 (15.9%) -7.4%

LDm: 129 (5.2%) -3.5%

Ind: 55 (2.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

South Bank, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council

Lab: 368 (47.4%) -17.8%

Ref: 344 (44.3%) New

Con: 64 (8.2%) -4.3%

Lab HOLD

Quinton, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

LDm: 437 (47.3%) +3.5%

Ref: 306 (33.1%) New

Con: 137 (14.8%) -26.2%

Grn: 35 (3.8%) -4.7%

Lab: 9 (1.0%) -5.7%

LDm HOLD

Salford Priors & Alcester Rural, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

Ref: 272 (33.3%) New

LDm: 269 (32.9%) +9.7%

Con: 227 (27.8%) -29.1%

Grn: 31 (3.8%) -5.3%

Lab: 18 (2.2%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Hale, Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,521 (46.5%) +9.8%

Grn: 1,245 (38.1%) -9.6%

Ref: 264 (0.1%) New

LDm: 101 (3.1%) -0.6%

Con GAIN from Grn

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Eql = Equality

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.10.25

Ten seats were up for grabs this week, with vacancies in Surrey accounting for more than half of them.  There were two Labour defences, both in the crumbling red wall of the north west of England.  They lost both, one each to the Lib Dems and the Tories.

The Lib Dems and Reform pushed Labour into third place in Preston, the party suffering a cratering 35.7 per cent drop in vote share.  There was a significant swing from Labour to Reform in this seat.  A 19 per cent drop in Trafford was enough to gift the seat to the Tories, who won despite a drop in their own vote share.

Labour finished last in an astonishing five seats, including a humiliating tally of 17 votes in Babergh, Suffolk.

North of the border, the outgoing Ayrshire councillor was elected for the SNP, but left the party a year into his term and served as an independent up to his death.  We had this down as an SNP defence.  They lost to an independent.

Elsewhere, it was very much a Lib Dem affair, with the party successfully defending three seats and making four gains - one each at the expense of Labour, the Greens, Tories and a local residents' group.  However, they did not have it all their own way and lost a seat to Reform in Babergh.  There was a significant swing from the Lib Dems to Reform here.

One other party of interest was the Green Party, whose results on the night did not reflect current polling, in which one poll this week had them tied in second place with Labour.  They were not just beaten in their one defence - they were totally demolished and finished a humiliating fifth place.  They made no impression elsewhere, a distant second in Reigate their best result.

Copdock & Washbrook, Babergh District Council

Ref: 323 (32.0%) New

LDm: 292 (28.9%) -27.5%

Grn: 238 (23.6%) +9.5%

Con: 140 (13.9%) -15.7%

Lab: 17 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Ashton, Preston City Council

LDm: 659 (35.5%) +14.0%

Ref: 548 (29.5%) New

Lab: 429 (23.1%) -35.7%

Ind: 101 (5.4%) New

Con: 61 (3.3%) -16.4%

Ind: 60 (3.2%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

Meadvale & St John's, Reigate & Banstead Borough Council

LDm: 1,009 (48.3%) +11.7%

Grn: 368 (17.6%) -0.5%

Con: 251 (12.0%) -16.9%

Ref: 242 (11.6%) New

Ind: 218 (10.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Ayr North, South Ayrshire Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 850 (25.1%) New

SNP: 790 (23.3%) -22.5%

Lab: 691 (20.4%) -3.7%

Ref: 584 (17.3%) New

Con: 195 (5.8%) -14.8%

Ind: 151 (4.5%) New

LDm: 73 (2.2%) +0.5%

Ind: 51 (1.5%) New

Ind GAIN from SNP (elected at stage 8)

Staines, Spelthorne Borough Council

LDm: 804 (38.0%) New

Ref: 499 (23.6%) +21.6%

Ind: 261 (12.3%) New

Con: 231 (10.9%) -21.9%

Grn: 163 (7.7%) -36.3%

Lab: 158 (7.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

Camberley West, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,617 (49.5%) +16.6%

Ref: 845 (25.9%) New

Con: 666 (20.4%) -28.8%

Lab: 140 (4.3%) -11.4%

LDm GAIN from Con

Caterham Valley, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,182 (48.1%) +0.6%

Ref: 601 (24.5%) New

Con: 320 (13.0%) -23.5%

Grn: 135 (5.5%) New

Ind: 131 (5.3%) New

Lab: 89 (3.6%) -6.9%

LDm HOLD

Guildford South East, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,426 (41.3%) +18.0%

Con: 788 (22.8%) -8.1%

Ind: 565 (16.3%) -21.4%

Ref: 416 (12.0%) New

Grn: 172 (5.0%) New

Lab: 89 (2.6%) -5.6%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Whyteleafe, Tandridge District Council

LDm: 259 (44.9%) +14.2%

Ref: 154 (26.7%) New

Con: 57 (9.9%) +0.4%

Lab: 56 (9.7%) -1.7%

Grn: 51 (8.8%) +3.6%

LDm HOLD

Broadheath, Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,614 (36.8%) -4.4%

Lab: 978 (22.3%) -19.0%

LDm:: 841 (19.2%) +14.9%

Ref: 723 (16.5%) +11.2%

Grn: 204 (4.7%) -1.9%

Ind: 22 (0.5%) -0.8%

Con GAIN from Lab

WOKE WEDNESDAYS #45

If you've followed English football for the last few decades you will of course be familiar with the name of Gary Neville.  A rock solid right-back, Neville was part of the ultra successful Manchester United team of Alex Ferguson, and he also represented the England national team an impressive 85 times.  After retiring from the field of play in 2011, Neville has invested heavily in property, while also maintaining his football interest by becoming a TV pundit and purchasing Salford City Football Club alongside some of his ex-Manchester United team mates.  He also tried - and failed - at club management.

In recent years Neville has become increasingly outspoken on political issues, endorsing Labour - and Keir Starmer - on multiple occasions.  He appeared on stage with Starmer at the 2022 party conference and appeared alongside him again in a Labour election broadcast in 2024.

It could be argued that Gary has been inspired by his name-sake, potato crisp salesman and fellow multi millionaire ex-footballing socialist Gary Lineker.  However, while the latter deploys a smug, polished delivery of woke virtue signalling, the pound shop version comes across as eminently less so.  He was absolutely skewered during an appearance on the Beeb's Have I Got News For You, when challenged as to how his supposedly woke progressive persona seemed to give way when Qatari Arabs were offering a fat pay cheque to commentate on the controversial 2022 World Cup.

Earlier this week Neville released a video response to the Islamist attack on a synagogue in north Manchester last week.  Instead of bemoaning the divisive narrative that has been imported to the UK by both historic and ongoing mass migration, coupled with the rise of far left Palestine activism, just 18 seconds into his 'insight', he began attacking the presence of national flags placed on lamp-posts.  He then refers to 'division that's being created' and says it's 'absolutely disgusting'.  Then, in the very next sentence he goes on to specifically blame 'middle-aged white men' for this 'division'.

Just a reminder Gary - the man who carried out the attack on the synagogue was not a middle-aged white man, in fact he was not even British.

Pound Shop Lineker follows this up by proudly declaring that he 'instantly' tore down a Union flag that had appeared at one of his development sites.  More contradictions follow as he says he 'loves his country' and played for England.  Detractors have noted that when it came to the national anthem before England games, Neville tended to bow his head and not sing any lines, almost as if he was ashamed.  Well, now we know.  He really does hate this country and specifically the people who paid his exorbitant wages all those years, because if a football fan can be summed up in one demographic - it's a white middle-aged working class male.

Needless to say, the working class men of Greater Manchester have not reacted too kindly to Neville's absurd comments.  A banner was displayed at Salford City's latest match, in which the co-owner is described as 'traitor scum'.  National flags have also been placed on lamp-posts outside both his existing properties and development sites.

Oops, Gary, didn't anyone ever advise you not to bite the hand that feeds...

Last week's Labour conference meme generated 13 comments and two shares on Facebook.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.10.25

Seven seats were contested on Thursday and it was very nearly a clean sweep for Reform UK.  The party gained five, held one and lost out to Labour by 63 votes in Cheshire.  The latter saw a bruising drop of almost 33 per cent in Labour's vote share.

Reform made relatively easy gains - all as newcomers - from the Tories in Essex and they also took three formerly independent seats in Kent.  They also held a seat on the Isle of Wight with a marginal increase in vote share.

The Labour vote share was down in all four seats the party contested.

Hutton South, Brentwood Borough Council

Ref: 805 (45.8%) New

Con: 544 (30.9%) -14.5%

Lab: 234 (13.3%) -14.5%

LDm: 109 (6.2%) -9.6%

Grn: 66 (3.8%) -7.2%

Ref GAIN from Con

Strawberry, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Lab: 602 (35.8%) -32.9%

Ref: 539 (32.0%) New

Ind: 231 (13.7%) New

Con: 132 (7.8%) -16.8%

LDm: 121 (7.2%) +0.5%

Grn: 58 (3.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Lake North, Isle of Wight Council

Ref: 290 (36.8%) +0.7%

Con: 249 (31.6%) +2.8%

LDm: 118 (15.0%) +4.4%

Grn: 88 (11.2%) -0.9%

Lab: 44 (5.6%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

Harrietsham, Lenham & North Downs, Maidstone Borough Council

(3 seats)

Ref: 1,228, 1,226 & 1,153

Grn: 459, 452 & 430

Con: 342, 285 & 234

LDm: 236, 156 & 123

Hrt: 97

Ind: 74

Ind: 69

Ref GAIN from Ind (x3)

Wigan Central, Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,301 (47.2%) New

Lab: 970 (32.9%) -15.3%

Ind: 196 (6.7%) New

Con: 151 (5.1%) -9.4%

Grn: 130 (4.4%) -2.1%

LDm: 109 (3.7%) +0.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative
Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.04.25

Four by-elections took place on Thursday, with Labour in action in three of them.  In those three contests the Labour vote share bombed by double digits and they lost two seats as a consequence.  In Sutton (London), they dropped to fourth place behind both the Tories and Reform, with the Lib Dems holding the seat.  Elsewhere in London they were stunned by the Greens, who pushed them out in Haringey.

However, the most remarkable gain came in Tameside, the Greater Manchester borough at the centre of the Andrew Gwynne WhatsApp scandal.  Labour's vote share plummeted by almost 30 percentage points as Reform came from nowhere to easily take the seat with almost twice as many votes as Labour.

Teigl, Cyngor Gwynedd (Gwynedd Council)

Pld: 289 (68.6%) -30.4%

Ind: 96 (22.8%) New

Con: 28 (6.7%) New

LDm: 8 (1.9%) New

Pld HOLD (previously elected unopposed)

St Ann's, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,059 (55.4%) +14.1%

Lab: 589 (30.8%) -21.5%

Con: 83 (4.3%) New

LDm: 70 (3.7%) -2.8%

Ref: 69 (3.6%) New

TUS: 34 (1.8%) New

CLg: 8 (0.4%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Sutton Central, Sutton London Borough Council

LDm: 1,291 (55.6%) +17.4%

Con: 327 (14.1%) -10.0%

Ref: 282 (12.2%) New

Lab: 216 (9.3%) -17.4%

Grn: 95 (4.1%) -6.8%

Ind: 84 (3.6%) New

CPA: 24 (1.0%) New

LDm HOLD

Longdendale, Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 911 (46.6%) New

Lab: 489 (25.0%) -28.8%

Con: 242 (12.4%) -9.7%

Grn: 237 (12.1%) -12.0%

Ind: 76 (3.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

CLg = Communist League

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

Ind = Independent