IS THIS REALLY BURNHAM'S CHANCE?

by Richey Edwards

Disgraced former minister Andrew Gwynne has sensationally decided to quit Westminster, ostensibly 'on doctor's orders' due to what he has strongly insinuated is a mental health problem.  He is reported to have quit only after he secured a lucrative pension deal with Commons authorities.  Gwynne's departure creates a potential route to the Labour leadership challenge prized by the Mayor of Greater Manchester.  On the face of it, Gwynne's Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton appears to be the perfect vehicle for Andy Burnham to achieve his ultimate goal of replacing Starmer in Number Ten.

However, it won't be that simple, and a significant amount of factors come into play before Burnham 

even gets close to challenging Starmer for the top job.

For Burnham to challenge Starmer, he firstly has to get himself back into the Commons as a Labour MP.  As the self-styled 'King in the North', Burnham will favour a northern seat in order to achieve this, and for a vacancy to arise in Greater Manchester - with a solid existing Labour majority of 13,413 - he is unlikely to get a better opportunity in this parliament.

This could end in humiliating fashion for Burnham, should he go for it.  Failing to get through the selection process wouldn't be the biggest embarrassment, but getting the nod and then failing to hold the seat would be truly humbling, potentially career ending.  What would traditionally be considered a Labour 'safe' seat is no longer safe.  The old political order is crumbling, the game has changed and there is every chance that either Reform or the Greens could dislodge Labour in this forthcoming by-election.

Gorton and Denton, 2024 general election

Andrew Gwynne (Lab) 18,555 (50.8%) -16.4%

Lee Moffitt (Ref) 5,142 (14.1%) +9.2%

Amanda Gardner (Grn) 4,810 (13.2%) +10.7%

Amir Burney (WPB) 3,766 (10.3%) New

Ruth Welsh (Con) 2,888 (7.9%) -11.0%

John Reid (LDm) 1,399 (3.8%) -2.0%

As you can see, there was already a swing away from Labour in 2024, with the benefactors being a combination of Reform, the Greens and Workers Party.  The swing will be even greater this time round, which will bring both Reform and the Greens closer to victory.  The seat is more likely to favour Reform and we would expect the contest to be very tight.

Failure to hold this seat would provide yet another example of how far Labour have slumped in less than two years of government.  Gorton and Denton was created by boundary changes in 2024, but most of the land from which it was amalgamated has been held by Labour for decades.  The new seat took around half of its territory from Manchester Gorton, a seat held by Labour since 1935.  Denton and Reddish - the seat held by Gwynne prior to the boundary change - was held by Labour since its own creation back in 1983.  Manchester Withington had a Lib Dem MP from 2005 to 2015, after which it was taken back by Labour, who had previously held the seat since 1987.

Losing a seat like Gorton and Denton would be hard to bear for such a high profile ego as the 'King in the North'.  The stakes could not be higher and Burnham's well publicised desire to challenge Starmer could rob him of vital activists during a campaign in which he would need to throw the kitchen sink.  A split in support could also prevent him from winning selection, but he may not even get that far.  An elected mayor has to get special permission from the party to contest a Westminster seat, which could be denied.  He could resign his mayoralty in order to work around this first obstacle, but that would be seen in a very poor light and could hinder him in later stages, when he will need to call upon the local CLP, MPs and party members for support.

Now let's say that Burnham gets approval to run, wins selection and then successfully holds the seat for Labour.  Having re-entered the House of Commons as an MP, he will have a new set of obstacles to get what he ultimately desires.  Firstly, there needs to be a will to replace Starmer.  While Starmer is perceived by the majority of the electorate as a catastrophic disaster, Labour's polling has improved in recent polls.  YouGov now has Labour back in second place behind Reform, having halved Reform's poll lead from 10 points to five in just a month.  It's doubtful that Starmer can keep up this momentum, and there is a potentially very embarrassing trial looming large in April, involving three young 'aspiring male models' from eastern Europe.

Leadership challenges are usually born out of discontent, much of which is orchestrated.  However, in order to sow dissent successfully, plotters need negative circumstances.  This wasn't a problem when Jeremy Corbyn's leadership was stumbling in 2016.  Negative publicity, poor polling and a desire to scapegoat Corbyn for the EU referendum result, all combined to create the negative circumstances required to launch a leadership challenge, aided by the loss of a no confidence vote and a string of resignations from his shadow front bench.

Corbyn easily survived the leadership challenge from little known backbencher Owen Smith and went on to exceed expectations in Theresa May's absurd snap general election of 2017.  Taking the Tory majority away meant that Brexit could be stalled indefinitely and this saved Corbyn's leadership from any further attempts to mount a challenge.

Burnham could try and mount a challenge without significant negative circumstances, but it would not be wise.  If Starmer is seen to have steadied the ship after a disastrous 2025, MPs would be less inclined to support a challenge.  Unpopular leaders are much easier to dislodge.  Burnham would be best equipped to bide his time, but not too much time as his slim chances of rescuing Labour's majority diminishes the closer the end of the parliamentary term.  He would need to sow a little dissent in the ranks, but not too much as no-one likes a concerted plotter.  It's a tightrope.

Alternatively, he could wait for another plotter to come along and allow them to do the ground work in triggering a challenge and then jump on the ballot paper.  Either way, Burnham would have to canvass and gain the support of 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party in order to get on the ballot.  This is double the threshold since the last leadership challenge, the party having voted to increase it from 10 per cent in 2021.  Having achieved that, the challenger then has to secure nominations from five per cent of Constituency Labour Parties and/or Labour affiliates such as trades unions.

If Burnham succeeded in mounting a solo challenge, the party would be entering new territory and the self-styled King would be making history, regardless of whether or not he defeats Starmer in the ballot.  No Labour Prime Minister has ever faced a leadership challenge, let alone one in which a fifth of Labour MPs are required to turn on the incumbent.

The ultimate question is then answered by the Labour membership and affiliate supporters - stick with Starmer or take the plunge with Burnham?  It's anyone's guess as to which way that would go.

The whole process from start to finish is an exceptionally tall order for Burnham and he may choose to duck out from the off.  The possibilities may be too tempting to miss out, but of course he would need to get that special permission first.  At the time of writing, he has said precisely nothing about Gwynne's departure.

As for Andrew Gwynne, he may still yet be remembered as the man who made it possible for Burnham to dislodge Starmer, but he is more likely to go down in history for the WhatsApp scandal.  And quite rightly so!