LABOUR SET FOR HARTLEPOOL DEFEAT

The current Hartlepool constituency was formed in 1974 and has been held by Labour ever since.  Before then it was known as The Hartlepools, which Labour held from 1964.  That's an unbroken stretch of 57 years of Labour representation.  In just over four week's time that impressive run could be at an end.

Defeat in the big by-election of May 6 could spell disaster for Keir Starmer, but that is exactly what's on the cards.  The bookies have got the Tories odds on favourites to win and a new opinion poll has them seven points ahead of Labour.  Perhaps the decision to install a staunch Remainer as their candidate has already lost Labour the seat.  In 2016 the constituency returned a 70 per cent Leave vote, one of the largest in the country.  Three years later the Brexit Party picked up more than 25 per cent in the general election - their second best result across the country.  Hartlepool is unarguably Brexit country and it's the destination of those 10,603 Brexit Party voters from 2019 that will decide the outcome of this by-election.

If this election was to follow the pattern of previous elections, most of those voters would return to Labour.  However, it is being claimed by Survation pollsters that this time most Brexit voters will actually switch to the Conservatives for the first time, turning their backs on Labour altogether.

Survation poll 29 Mar-3 April

Con 49%

Lab 42%

NIP 2%

Ref 1%

Green 1%

LDem 1%

Other 4%

NIP = Northern Independence Party

Ref = Reform UK, previously the Brexit Party

The sample size in this poll was just 502.  Intriguingly, the client was the Communication Workers' Union.  Not sure how their members would feel about their subs being used to commission opinion polls, but it appears that the CWU has an axe to grind with Keir Starmer.  The union was a staunch supporter of Jeremy Corbyn and backed Long-Bailey in last year's leadership election.  Other questions in the Survation/CWU poll asked voters whether they supported Corbyn policies such as free broadband and renationalising Royal Mail.

How is this relevant now?  It is only relevant if you're trying to undermine the current party leader and that seems to be the motive behind the poll.  Dave Ward, the general secretary of the CWU, discussed the poll in an interview with Michael Walker of the far left Novara Media site.  Ward claims in the interview that the strategy of his union is to 'unite working class people'.  Good luck with that pal.  The workers continue to abandon Labour regardless of whether it's Corbyn or Starmer running the show.

We strongly suspect that the left are gearing up for a leadership challenge in the wake of the May elections and defeat in Hartlepool is key to triggering it.  However, given that so many of Corbyn's allies either lost their seats or failed to get elected in 2019, they may not have the numbers to launch a challenge.

An unnamed Labour source quoted in the Telegraph on Tuesday suggested that Hartlepool may already be lost: "Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the Brexit Party.  In the context of the vaccine bounce, the Conservatives should take this seat".

The candidates for the by-election were confirmed on Thursday afternoon.  Here they are in full, followed by the most recent election result.  Note that there are no less than three former Labour MPs standing in this election.

2021 by-election candidates

David Bettney (SDP)

Hilton Dawson (North East Party) - Labour MP for Lancaster and Wyre 1997-2005

The Incredible Flying Brick (Loony)

Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)

Rachael Featherstone (Green)

Adam Gaines (Ind)

Andy Hagon (LDem) - third consecutive time he's stood for Hartlepool

Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance)

Chris Killick (Ind)

Samantha Lee (Ind)

Claire Martin (Heritage)

Jill Mortimer (Con) - North Yorkshire county councillor

John Prescott (Reform) - no, not that John Prescott

Thelma Walker (Northern Independence Party) - Labour MP for Colne Valley 2017-19

W. Ralph Ward-Jackson (Ind)

Paul Williams (Lab) - Labour MP for Stockton South 2017-19

2019 general election

Mike Hill (Lab) 15,464 (37.7%) -14.8%

Stefan Houghton (Con) 11,869 (28.9%) -5.3%

Richard Tice (Brexit) 10,603 (25.8%) New

Andy Hagon (LDem) 1,696 (4.1%) +2.3%

Joe Bousfield (Ind) 911 (2.2%) New

Kevin Cranney (Soc Lab) 494 (1.2%) New

BRUTAL POLL EXPOSES LABOUR DIVIDE

A Survation poll of more than 5,000 Labour members has exposed just how sharply divided the party remains.  The pollsters asked if they thought Starmer was right or wrong not to restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn and remarkably a slight majority of those asked said they thought he was wrong.  The result will worry Starmer, particularly given that his thumping leadership victory back in April was followed by an exodus of members who were clearly sympathetic to Corbyn.  The party has lost almost 60,000 members since Starmer took over and yet here's a poll backing his predecessor.

The poll will undoubtedly boost morale in the Corbyn camp as his supporters seek to get him reinstated as a Labour MP.  That campaign looks set to get really messy as news emerged on Thursday night that Corbyn is taking legal action over the party whip.  According to The Guardian Corbyn's team intend to make public details of backroom deals that predetermined his punishment.  This will of course be of huge embarrassment to Starmer and will do no end of harm as he tries to present his divided party as a genuine opposition.  The Conservatives have already recovered a small lead in the last five opinion polls, bucking a trend towards Labour that had seen the huge Tory pre-pandemic lead demolished.

In a further blow to Starmer the Survation poll found that his net favourability rating among members was less than Lisa Nandy's, someone who finished a distant third in the leadership election.  He is also less popular than hapless colleagues such as Jonathan Ashworth, Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner.

The Survation poll wasn't a complete disaster for Starmer as he fared a little better when members were asked if they thought the party was moving in the right direction.  The gulf was still clear to see, but more than half thought he was taking them in the right direction.  Still, for someone who scored such a comprehensive win in the leadership election to have 40 per cent now disavowing his leadership is woeful.

If this poll is anything to go by the future's not looking too bright for Sir Squeaky.

SURVATION BLOW TO LEFT

Pollsters Survation have dealt a blow to the hard left with a new opinion poll for the Labour leadership.  Survation's first poll in mid-January gave Rebecca Long-Bailey a narrow lead over Keir Starmer, but their latest poll gives Starmer an eleven-point lead.  His lead is precisely half the margin shown in YouGov's most recent poll, but both polls are very close when it comes to the second round.  YouGov calls it 66-34 while Survation calls 64-36.

Survation leadership poll (21-24 Feb)

First round

Starmer 45%

Long-Bailey 34%

Nandy 21% (eliminated)

Second round

Starmer 64%

Long-Bailey 36%

(sample size 1,196)

With Richard Burgon miles behind in the deputy leadership race it appears there will be no continuity Corbyn candidates at the helm after the results are announced in five weeks time.  Jeremy Corbyn's decision to come off the fence and demand that Keir Starmer publishes details of his donors shows that desperation and realisation is beginning to sink in.  The loony left are making good capital over Starmer's refusal to publish the details and will naturally jump to all sorts of conclusions and conspiracy theories.

So far the above tweet has got eight retweets.  Long live the revolution!

LONG-BAILEY LEADS IN NEW POLL

Survation have carried out a leadership poll of Labour members and given Rebecca Long-Bailey a 5 point lead over Keir Starmer, with a 2 point lead in the run-off.  The poll of 3,835 members was conducted between 8-13 January, with first preference votes as follows.

Rebecca Long-Bailey 42%
Keir Starmer 37%
Jess Phillips 9%
Lisa Nandy 7%
Emily Thornberry 1%

Don't know/did not answer 4%

The same poll has Long-Bailey leading Starmer 51% to 49% in the final run-off.  This differs markedly from the last poll, conducted by YouGov last month.  In that poll Starmer had a huge lead over Long-Bailey in the final run-off - 61% to 39% - although the sample size of 1,059 was much smaller.

The Survation poll will be a huge boost to Long-Bailey and the hard left, having watched as Starmer becomes increasingly seen as the runaway favourite.  Meanwhile, a 'team photo' emerged this afternoon showing Long-Bailey and her pal Angela Rayner.  She doesn't look very leader-like, while Rayner looks like she's off out on the razzle in this bizarre graphic posted by Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle.

Long-Bailey had begged Momentum to back Rayner for the deputy's position and the organisation has now written to its members making such a recommendation.  Long-Bailey clearly has some clout with Lansman and co, although many Corbynistas will be supporting hard left loon Richard Burgon in the deputy leadership contest.