COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.02.26

After last week's solitary by-election, there were twice as many seats available this week - including a tricky Labour defence in the West Country.  We had this down as a Labour defeat, but they managed to hold the seat by the slender margin of 16 votes over newcomers Reform.  Labour had won this seat previously in a head to head with the Conservatives, with Labour ahead by 96 votes.  As you can see, there was a huge swing away from both Labour and the Conservatives, but not enough to give Reform the winning edge.

Reform still managed a gain on the night, winning the other by-election in a surprisingly easy win over the defending Plaid Cymru.  Reform came from nowhere to dislodge the phoney nationalists by 260 votes on the small island of Ynys Gybi (Holy Island in English).

Ynys Gybi, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Ref: 603 (43.9%) New

Pld: 343 (25.0%) -3.7%

Lab: 171 (12.5%) -11.3%

Grn: 118 (8.6%) New

Con: 112 (8.2%) -13.1%

Ind: 26 (1.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Pld

Clevedon South, North Somerset Council

Lab: 350 (29.0%) -25.4%

Ref: 334 (27.7%) New

Con: 224 (18.6%) -27.0%

Grn: 197 (16.3%) New

LDm: 100 (8.3%) New

Lab HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.11.25

Just the five seats were contested on Thursday, with Labour absent among the defending parties.  We expected at least three of these to be holds, with Reform UK a potential gain in Lincolnshire and the Lib Dems a possible upset in North Somerset.  Reform did indeed take the East Lindsey seat from the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems went in completely the wrong direction and crashed to fourth in North Somerset, where the Greens held easily.

It was a good week for the Greens, who also bested the Lib Dems in Canterbury, where they dislodged the incumbents.  They did not impress so much in leafy Oxfordshire, whey they entered as newcomers in lowly fourth place.

Labour stood in four of the five seats, finishing last in two and fourth elsewhere.  In Oxfordshire they could only muster a pathetic eight votes.

Wincheap, Canterbury City Council

Grn: 842 (39.1%) +24.1%

LDm: 518 (24.1%) -12.2%

Ref: 351 (16.3%) New

Lab: 276 (12.8%) -25.5%

Con: 166 (7.7%) -2.6%

Grn GAIN from LDm

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey District Council

Ref: 586 (65.8%) New

Con: 139 (15.6%) -20.7%

Ind: 60 (6.7%) New

Lab: 48 (5.4%) -27.7%

LDm: 42 (4.7%) New

Ind: 15 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Bethel a'r Felinheli, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Pld: 659 (59.2%) -25.0%

Ind: 369 (33.2%) New 

Ref: 76 (6.8%) New 

Con: 9 (0.8%) New

Pld HOLD

Long Ashton, North Somerset Council

Grn: 1,254 (55.7%) +25.1%

Con: 399 (17.7%) -7.2%

Ref: 349 (15.5%) New

LDm: 129 (5.7%) -28.8%

Lab: 121 (5.4%) -4.5%

Grn HOLD

Ridgeway, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 442 (43.1%) -14.9%

Con: 250 (24.4%) -17.6%

Ref: 204 (19.9%) New

Grn: 144 (11.9%) New

Lab: 8 (0.8%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 03.07.25

Nine by-elections were held this week, including two on Wednesday.  Labour were defending both of the Wednesday contests and fell to Reform in one, while holding off a Reform surge in the other.

On Thursday there was a gain each for the Lib Dems, Reform and Tories, plus an independent.  Reform were defending seats for the first time and lost both.  It seems that voters are not too happy when they are asked to go to the polls again just two months after they elected these councillors.  In one of those seats Reform slipped to third place behind Labour, who saw a marginal increase in vote share.  Reform  lost their other seat to the Conservatives by the narrowest margin of just eight votes.

In a somewhat merry-go-round of gains and losses, the Tories lost a seat to Reform in Suffolk, while Reform narrowly missed out on a gain in mid Wales.  The Lib Dems held them off by just six votes.

Killingworth, North Tyneside Metropolitan Borough Council

(held on Wednesday)

Ref: 771 (38.5%) New

Lab: 639 (31.9%) -22.7%

Con: 441 (21.4%) -3.5%

Grn: 85 (4.2%) -16.3%

LDm: 81 (4.0%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Longbenton & Benton, North Tyneside Metropolitan Borough Council

(held on Wednesday)

Lab: 739 (39.6%) -16.8%

Ref: 602 (32.3%) +19.3%

Grn: 259 (13.9%) -7.8%

LDm: 183 (9.8%) New

Con: 83 (4.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Mendip, Bath and North East Somerset Council

LDm: 496 (57.1%) -18.2%

Ref: 191 (22.0%) New

Con: 84 (9.7%) +6.7%

Grn: 57 (6.6%) +2.0%

Lab: 40 (4.6%) +0.9%

LDm HOLD

Benfieldside, Durham County Council

LDm: 824 (28.3%) +17.3%

Lab: 800 (27.4%) +0.8%

Ref: 747 (25.6%) -6.6%

Ind: 459 (15.7%) -8.0%

Con: 76 (1.6%) -5.0%

Grn: 40 (1.4%) New

LDm GAIN from Ref

Calverton, Gedling Borough Council

Ind: 1,245 (66.3%) New

Ref: 337 (17.9%) New

Lab: 150 (8.0%) -20.6%

Con: 117 (6.2%) -44.1%

Grn: 21 (1.1%) New

LDm: 8 (0.4%) New

Ind GAIN from Con

Fulham Town, Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council

Con: 647 (43.3%) -1.7%

LDm: 345 (23.1%) -4.5%

Lab: 251 (16.8%) -10.6%

Ref: 187 (12.5%) New

Grn: 63 (4.2%) New

Con HOLD

Newark West, Nottinghamshire County Council

Con: 680 (34.7%) +4.8%

Ref: 672 (34.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 316 (16.1%) -3.9%

Grn: 190 (9.7%) +2.1%

LDm: 90 (4.6%) -1.9%

SDP: 11 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Llanidloes, Powys County Council

LDm: 557 (35.5%) +5.2%

Ref: 551 (35.1%) New

Pld: 225 (14.3%) +1.9%

Con: 118 (7.5%) -7.7%

Lab: 112 (7.1%) -4.8%

Ind: 6 (0.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Tower, Suffolk County Council

Ref: 1,332 (28.8%) New

Grn: 1,155 (25.0%) -4.5%

Con: 808 (17.5%) -16.2%

Lab: 667 (14.4%) -6.4%

Ind: 407 (8.8%) New

LDm: 269 (5.6%) +1.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independent

DAN NORRIS ARRESTED

Dan Norris pictured with Keir Starmer

Labour's Dan Norris has been arrested on suspicion of multiple offences including rape and child abduction.  Norris is the outgoing Mayor of the West of England, having already chosen to stand down at the May 1st elections.  He is also the MP for North East Somerset and Hanham, having defeated longstanding Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg in last year's general election.

Avon and Somerset Police arrested Norris on Friday on suspicion of rape, child abduction, sexual offences against a girl and misconduct in a public office.  He has since been released without charge, on conditional bail while the police investigation continues.  Most of the alleged offences are understood to have occurred in the 2000s, but an allegation of rape is much more recent and is alleged to have occurred in the 2020s.

Norris is reported to have previously worked as a child protection officer, trained by the NSPCC.  A BBC biography of him from 2002 reads: "He has been an extremely active campaigner against paedophiles and promotes child safety at every opportunity".  He is also an ambassador for children's charity Kidscape, which specialises in children's safety.  How very interesting...

65-year-old Norris has a long career in the Labour party, having first stood for parliamentary election in 1987.  He was later elected as a Bristol councillor in 1989, before again failing to join the Westminster gravy train in 1992.  He succeeded at the third attempt in 1997 and went on to serve the entire duration of the Blair/Brown governments as MP for the Somerset seat of Wansbeck.

After having lost his Westminster seat in 2010, he went on to work for David Miliband and supported his failed leadership bid.  After a spell in the political wilderness, Norris returned as the triumphant Mayor of the West of England in 2021.  Despite this role - and Keir Starmer's supposed opposition to second jobs - Norris shamelessly got himself selected for the 2024 general election and subsequently rejoined the Westminster gravy train.

Prior to his arrest he had agreed not to seek re-election as West of England Mayor on May 1, and will instead try to serve out his term as the MP for North East Somerset and Halton.  Following news of his arrest, he was immediately suspended from the Labour party and will remain an independent until further notice.

RESPITE FOR REFORM?

Farage and Yusuf unveil almost 30 new councillors

The very public mudslinging that has wracked Reform UK in recent weeks won't go away, but Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf hoped to get the fledgling party back on track with a major announcement on Monday.  The pair announced 29 council defections to Reform from other parties or having previously been independents or members of local residents' groups.  26 of the new members were in attendance at the press conference.

Some of the defections actually occurred up to a month ago, such as the defections of Conservatives Kirk Harrison, Joanne Monk and Stephen Reed, who announced their defections weeks ago.  Clearly, Monday's event was intended as a distraction from the rumblings within.

Of the defections, 15 were Conservatives, 12 were independents or from local residents' groups (two of which had previously been Conservatives) and one each came from Labour and the Lib Dems.  Most of the new Reformers are county councillors.

These are the new Reform councillors that Farage named...

• Cllr Heather Asker, Uttlesford District Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Atkinson, Ribble Valley Borough Council (was Conservative and leader of the council)
• Cllr Bill Barrett, Ashford Borough Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Felix Bloomfield, Oxfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Mandy Clare, Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council (was Labour, reportedly left in opposition to trans ideology)
• Cllr Stuart Davies, North Somerset Council (was independent)
• Cllr Emma Ellison, Blackpool Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Paul Ellison, Wyre Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Robert Gibson, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Kirk Harrison, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Manzur Hasan, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Cathy Hunt, Durham County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Paul Irwin, Buckinghamshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Claire Jonson-Wood, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Reg Kain, Cheshire East Council (was Liberal Democrat)
• Cllr Edward Kirk, Wiltshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Karl Lewis, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Graham McAndrew, Hertfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Iain McIntosh, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Joanne Monk, Worcestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Geoff Morgan, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Jan O'Hara, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Christine Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Richard Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Reed, North East Derbyshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Dirk Ross, Kent County Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Matthew Salter, Lancashire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Vernon Smith, Gloucestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Thomas Sneath, South Holland District Council (was independent)

A further defection was announced in the form of Julian Kirk, who has resigned his seat on Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council in protest at delayed local elections.  He was an independent, having previously been a Conservative councillor.

These announcements came just as another existing Reform councillor quit the party, a member of East Riding Yorkshire Council.  Still, a big net gain for Farage with the news of such a large influx.

There was quite possibly more important news for Reform on Monday.  Convict MP Mike Amesbury has officially stood down as the member for Runcorn and Helsby, triggering the by-election we've all been waiting for.  This will be a huge indicator of Reform's electoral prowess and ability to shake off its recent troubles.  They remain odds on favourites with the bookies to win the Cheshire seat and those odds have now stabilised, having previously been drifting a little in response to the infighting.

There is no date for the Runcorn by-election as yet.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.01.25

Council by-elections are back, but it's a slow start with just a couple of Lib Dem defences in the West Country to report.  It was 50 per cent success rate for the Europhiles, with an independent swiping a Somerset seat from them by the margin of just five votes...

Saltford, Bath and North East Somerset Council

Ind: 587 (29.8%) +5.4%

LDm: 583 (29.6%) -10.5%

Con: 375 (19.0%) -1.7%

Ref: 205 (10.4%) New

Grn: 159 (8.1%) +1.4%

Lab: 60 (3.0%) -5.0%

Ind GAIN from LDm

Chesterton, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 296 (48.1%) -15.8%

Ref: 152 (24.7%) New

Con: 106 (17.2%) -7.6%

Lab: 61 (9.9%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.11.24

15 council seats were available in this week's round of by-elections.  Labour were defending just five of these, three of which were in Glasgow.  With the SNP in freefall in Scotland's second city, Labour would not have many problems holding here and they did so, albeit with dips in their vote across two of the wards.  They also held in Sefton (Merseyside), again not surprising, but their vote share plummeted by more than 30 points with a huge swing to the second placed Greens.

Of course there couldn't be a week in Starmer's Britain where Labour didn't lose something and they did.  In Gosport (Hampshire) they lost a seat, with a swing to both Reform and the victorious Conservatives.

Labour also gained a rare seat, taking advantage of a vacant independent seat in Dacorum (Hertfordshire).  Reform also made gains at the expense of residents' groups in Kent, gaining two seats, one of which they had not previously contested.

The Tories improved on last week's performance, gaining three seats from the Lib Dems.

Bennetts End, Dacorum Borough Council

Lab: 318 (37.1%) +6.4%

Con: 313 (36.5%) +14.5%

Grn: 102 (11.9%) +1.7%

Ref: 92 (10.7%) New

LDm: 32 (3.7%) -3.6%

Lab GAIN from Ind

Hemel Hempstead Town, Dacorum Borough Council

Con: 347 (43.7%) +17.3%

LDm: 174 (21.9%) -24.8%

Lab: 147 (18.5%) -8.4%

Ref: 79 (9.9%) New

Grn: 45 (5.9%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Greenhithe & Knockhall, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 284 (31.2%) New

Ind: 251 (27.6% ) -17.2%

Grn: 150 (16.5%) New

Lab: 113 (12.4%) -7.0%

Con: 112 (12.3%) -23.5%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Drumchapel & Anniesland, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,084 (34.3%) -3.8%

SNP: 830 (26.3%) -11.6%

Ref: 405 (12.8%) New

Ind: 297 (9.4%) +4.2%

Grn: 263 (8.3%) +2.3%

Con: 184 (5.8%) -3.7%

LDm: 93 (2.9%) +1.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Maryhill, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 999 (35.9%) +1.9%

SNP: 814 (29.2%) -12.9%

Ref: 353 (12.7%) New

Grn: 338 (12.1%) -0.2%

Alb: 118 (4.2%) New

Con: 89 (3.2%) -5.0%

LDm: 75 (2.7%) +0.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

North East, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 630 (34.3%) -9.7%

SNP: 591 (32.2%) -10.4%

Ref: 336 (18.3%) New

Con: 99 (5.4%) -3.3%

Grn: 77 (4.2%) +1.2%

TUS: 68 (3.7%) +2.5%

LDm: 36 (2.0%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Harbourside & Town, Gosport Borough Council

Con: 445 (48.5%) +10.6%

Lab: 255 (27.8%) -12.8%

LDm: 108 (11.8%) +3.4%

Ref: 85 (9.3%) New

Ind: 13 (1.4%) New

Hrt: 11 (1.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Highland Council

(First preference votes)

LDm: 1,428 (58.9%) +21.4%

SNP: 619 (25.5%) -8.0%

Grn: 146 (6.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 109 (4.5%) New

Con: 107 (4.4%) -5.7%

SLP: 15 (0.6%) New

LDm HOLD (elected stage 1)

Denne, Horsham District Council

Con: 712 (38.6%) +9.3%

LDm: 672 (36.4%) -13.2%

Grn: 255 (13.8%) +5.0%

Lab: 205 (11.1%) -1.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

Swanscombe & Greenhithe, Kent County Council

Ref: 695 (29.1%) +27.5%

Lab: 588 (24.6%) -7.5%

Ind: 395 (16.5%) -23.9%

Con: 374 (15.6%) -10.3%

Grn: 296 (12.4%) New

LDm: 44 (1.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Litherland, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 495 (43.7%) -30.3%

Grn: 385 (34.0%) +27.1%

Ref: 141 (12.4%) New

Con: 48 (4.2%) -0.6%

WPB: 40 (3.5%) New

TUS: 25 (2.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Oakham North East, Rutland County Council

LDm: 244 (40.9%) -30.7%

Con: 237 (39.7%) +11.3%

Ref: 93 (15.6%) New

Lab: 23 (3.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Blackmoor Vale, Somerset County Council

Con: 1,120 (57.4%) +13.1%

LDm: 724 (36.6%) -19.1%

Grn: 86 (4.4%) New

Lab: 32 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Rowbarton & Staplegrove, Somerset County Council

LDm: 817 (58.3%) +1.7%

Con: 396 (28.3%) -2.4%

Grn: 102 (7.3%) New

Lab: 96 (6.1%) -6.6%

LDm HOLD

Murston, Swale Borough Council

Ind: 269 (34.5%) -6.1%

Lab: 229 (29.4%) +2.2%

Ref: 139 (17.8%) New

Con: 116 (14.9%) +0.4%

LDm: 26 (3.3%) -6.2%

Ind HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Hrt = Heritage

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and local groups

BY-ELECTIONS 20.07.23

The comprehensive Tory disaster that was widely anticipated on Super Thursday did not materialise thanks to a surprise result in the one seat that, on paper, they were most likely to lose.  A backlash against Khan's despicable ULEZ expansion saved them in Uxbridge, albeit with a reduced majority - down from 7,210 in 2019 to just 495.  Despite the backlash, Labour still piled on almost six percentage points.  Everyone else lost their deposit.

In the other two parliamentary elections, the Conservatives suffered crushing defeats.  In North Yorkshire they lost a seat they had held since its inception in 2010, with Labour overturning a 2019 majority of 20,137.  Their 25-year-old candidate comfortable surged past his Tory opponent with a 4,151 majority of his own, instantly replacing Nadia Whittome as the new Baby of the House.  The third placed Green Party candidate was the only other to save his deposit.

In Somerset the Lib Dems ploughed resources into a seat they had previously held between 1997 and 2015.  Since then the Tories had created a solid majority which stood at 19,213 in 2019.  On Thursday the Lib Dems decimated the Conservative lead and returned to Somerton and Frome with an 11,008 majority.  Again, the Green Party saved their deposit in third place.

Turnout was predictably low in all three seats: 44.8% in Selby, 44.2% in Somerton and 46.2% in Uxbridge.

Selby & Ainsty

Keir Mather (Lab) 16,456 (46.0%) +21.4%

Claire Holmes (Con) 12,295 (34.3%) -26.0%

Arnold Warneken (Grn) 1,838 (5.1%) +1.9%

Mike Jordan (Yrks) 1,503 (4.2%) +0.8%

Dave Kent (RefUK) 1,332 (3.7%) New

Matt Walker (LDem) 1,188 (3.3%) -5.3%

Nick Palmer (Ind) 342 (1.0%) New

John Waterstone (SDP) 314 (0.9%) New

Sir Archibald Stanton (Loon) 172 (0.5%) New

Guy Phoenix (Herit) 162 (0.5%) New

Andrew Gray (Ind) 99 (0.3%) New

Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 67 (0.2%) New

Luke Wellock (Clim) 39 (0.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Somerton & Frome

Sarah Dyke (LDem) 21,187 (54.6%) +28.4%

Faye Purbrick (Con) 10,179 (26.2%) -29.6%

Martin Dimery (Grn) 3,944 (10.2%) +5.1%

Bruce Evans (RefUK) 1,303 (3.4%) New

Neil Guild (Lab) 1,009 (2.6%) -10.3%

Rosie Mitchell (Ind) 635 (1.6%) New

Peter Richardson (UKIP) 275 (0.7%) New

Lorna Corke (CPA) 256 (0.7%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Steve Tuckwell (Con) 13,965 (45.2%) -7.5%

Danny Beales (Lab) 13,470 (43.6%) +5.9%

Sarah Green (Grn) 893(2.9%) +0.6%

Laurence Fox (Rclm) 714 (2.3%) New

Blaise Baquiche (LDem) 526 (1.7%) -4.6%

Steve Gardner (SDP) 248 (0.8%) New

Kingsley Hamilton Anti-Ulez (Ind) 208 (0.7%) New

Count Binface (Bin) 190 (0.6%) +0.5%

No-Ulez Leo Phaure (Ind) 186 (0.6%) New

Richard Hewison (Rejoin) 105 (0.3%) New

Piers Corbyn (LLL) 101 (0.3%) New

Cameron Bell (Ind) 91 (0.3%) New

Enomfon Ntefon (CPA) 78 (0.3%) New

Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 61 (0.2%) -0.4%

Ed Gemmell (Clim) 49 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 32 (0.1%) -0.2%

77 Joseph (Ind) 8 (0.1%<) New

Con HOLD

There were also three council by-elections on Thursday, one each in West Wales, Swindon and Worcester.  The Lib Dems narrowly held off a Plaid surge in Ceredigion and Labour scored an easy hold in Worcester.  In Swindon there was an intriguing result as the Conservatives gained a seat from Labour.

Llanfarian, Ceredigion County Council

LDem: 298 (48.2%) -19.8%

Plaid: 290 (46.9%) +15.0%

Con: 30 (4.9%) New

LDem HOLD

St Margaret & South Marston, Swindon Borough Council

Con: 1,143 (50.6%) +2.1%

Lab: 1,118 (49.4%) -2.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Nunnery, Worcester City Council

Lab: 1,048 (59.7%) +11.9%

Con: 518 (29.5%) -2.8%

LDem: 102 (5.8%) -0.5%

Ind: 88 (5.0%) -0.1%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Yrks = Yorkshire

RefUK = ReformUK

LDem = Liberal Democrat

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

Clim = Climate

Herit = Heritage

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

Rclm = Reclaim

Bin = Binface

Rejoin = Rejoin EU

LLL = Let London Live

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.10.22

Six council by-elections to report this week, with Labour and the Conservatives defending two each.  It was a routine hold for Labour in inner city Birmingham, but they lost to Plaid Cymru in Ceredigion.  Labour had previously been elected to the latter unopposed, but slipped to third place when presented with Plaid and Lib Dem opposition.

It was another week to forget for the Tories, losing a seat to Labour in Shropshire and clinging on to another, in Somerset, by just four votes.  Labour had stood aside in the latter, allowing the Lib Dems a clear run.

In other action the Lib Dems held a seat in Eastbourne and an independent group held firm in Dorset.

Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath East, Birmingham City Council

Lab: 2,410 (69.6%) +2.0%

LDem: 517 (14.9%) +10.6%

Con: 305 (8.8%) -14.6%

WPB: 158 (4.6%) New

Grn: 72 (2.1%) -1.6%

Lab HOLD

Highcliffe & Walkford, BCP Council (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole)

Ind: 1,778 (62.0%) +13.0%

LDem: 571 (19.9%) +9.5%

Con: 358 (12.5%) -20.1%

Lab: 163 (5.7%) -2.4%

Ind HOLD

Lampeter, Ceredigion County Council

Plaid: 291 (39.5%)

LDem: 268 (36.4%)

Lab: 160 (21.7%)

Ind: 18 (2.4%)

Plaid GAIN from Lab (Lab previously elected unopposed)

St Anthony's, Eastbourne Borough Council

LDem: 972 (49.6%) -2.9%

Con: 513 (26.2%) +8.3%

Grn: 420 (21.4%) New

UKIP: 55 (2.8%) -7.5%

LDem HOLD

Butleigh & Baltonsborough, Mendip District Council

Con: 393 (50.3%) -2.3%

LDem: 389 (49.7%) +16.5%

Con HOLD

Bridgnorth West & Talsey, Shropshire Council

Lab: 887 (55.9%) +6.0%

Con: 480 (30.2%) -4.5%

LDem: 176 (11.1%) -1.6%

Grn: 45 (2.8%) +0.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Grn = Green

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 14.07.22

Eight council seats up for grabs this week - five Labour defences, two Conservative and one Lib Dem.  Labour held all five of their seats and also took one from the Tories in Breckland, Norfolk.  They gained the seat with a small swing and the narrow margin of just 15 votes.

The Conservative vote share was down in all but two of the contests, but they managed to hold a safe seat in Warwickshire despite a Lib Dem surge there.  There was only one absence on Thursday - the Green Party did not contest Binley and Willenhall, Coventry.

Labour's victorious candidate in Coventry, Cllr Seyi Agboola, with MP Zarah
Sultana standing on his right

Thetford Boudica, Breckland Council

Lab: 398 (51.0%) +4.7%

Con: 383 (49.0%) -4.7%

Lab GAIN from Con

Binley & Willenhall, Coventry City Council

Lab: 934 (36.2%) -5.1%

Con: 765 (29.6%) +0.7%

CCP: 746 (28.9%) +9.6%

ADF: 91 (3.5%) +0.1%

TUSC: 46 (1.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Overton, Hyndburn Borough Council

Lab: 773 (52.2%) +5.9%

Con: 600 (40.5%) -0.5%

Ind: 71 (4.8%) New

RefUK: 36 (2.4%) -10.2%

Lab HOLD

Camperdown, North Tyneside Council

Lab: 873 (59.0%) -8.8%

Con: 388 (26.2%) -5.9%

LDem: 124 (8.4%) New

Grn: 58 (3.9%) New

UKIP: 36 (2.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Brympton, South Somerset District Council

LDem: 582 (58.6%) +4.5%

Con: 251 (25.3%) -11.3%

Grn: 71 (7.1%) New

Lab: 61 (6.1%) -3.2%

Ind: 29 (2.9%) New

LDem HOLD

Tooting Broadway, Wandsworth London Borough Council

Lab: 1,429 (62.2%) +1.6%

Con: 491 (21.4%) +2.8%

Grn: 285 (12.4%) -2.5%

LDem: 94 (4.1%) -2.0%

Lab HOLD

Arden, Warwickshire County Council

Con: 1,609 (59.3%) -14.7%

LDem: 854 (31.5%) +24.3%

Lab: 251 (9.2%) -0.8%

Con HOLD

Liscard, Wirral Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,304 (64.8%) +7.9%

Con: 370 (18.4%) -7.8%

Grn: 172 (8.5%) +0.4%

LDem: 167 (8.3%) +1.7%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

CCP = Coventry Citizens Party

ADF = Alliance for Democracy and Freedom

TUSC = Trade Union and Socialist Coalition

RefUK = Reform UK

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

UKIP = UK Independence Party

Ind = Independents

BY-ELECTIONS 03.03.22

The eighth parliamentary by-election of the current Parliament took place on Thursday in Birmingham.  Triggered by the death of Mr Harriet Harman (Jack Dromey), Labour eased to victory in a seat it has held since 1945.  Although Paulette Hamilton increased Labour's share of the vote, the party did not extend its lead over the Conservatives - the Labour majority actually dropped from 3,601 in 2019 to 3,266.  However, this could be largely attributed to the fact that just 27 per cent of voters bothered to show.

Such drastically low turnout will disappoint Labour, who threw the kitchen sink at this election.  Starmer and various other senior frontbenchers all dropped in during the campaign and activists were bussed in from as far and wide as Devon and Hampshire to Yorkshire and the north east.  Labour's candidate was hit by controversy 24 hours before polling day after GB News uncovered a speech from 2015 in which she questioned the virtues of democracy over violence.  We'll post the video over the weekend.

Only the Labour and Conservative candidates saved their deposits in this two-horse race.  Former Labour MP and long-standing far left activist Dave Nellist finished third as a candidate for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, beating Reform UK into fourth place.  The Lib Dems finished an embarrassing sixth.  

Birmingham Erdington

Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.5%) +5.2%

Robert Alden (Con) 6,147 (36.3%) -3.8%

Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.1%) New

Jack Brookes (RefUK) 293 (1.7%) -2.4%

Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Grn) 236 (1.4%) -0.4%

Lee Dargue (LDem) 173 (1.0%) -2.7%

Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.6%) New

Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.5%) New

Thomas O'Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.4%) New

The Good Knight Sir NosDa (Loony) 49 (0.3%) New

Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.1%) New

David Bishop (Elvis) 8 (0.0%) New

Lab HOLD

Westminster's newest MP Paulette Hamilton (left), pictured on the campaign trail with
MP Charlotte Nichols (Warrington North)

There were also eight council by-elections on Thursday, three of which were holds for the Lib Dems who also gained a seat from the Conservatives.  The Tories held the other two seats they were defending and also gained a seat via a free-for-all in East Lindsey, Lincolnshire.

Labour gained a seat in Sunderland thanks to the continuing decline in UKIP.  The outgoing councillor had won his seat for the party, but resigned from the party last year.  UKIP managed to find a candidate to defend the seat, but he finished a distant fourth.

UKIP did not contest Neroche in Somerset this time, while there were no independents for Halton Holegate.

Halton Holegate, East Lindsey District Council

Con: 306 (66.2%) +41.5%

Lab: 156 (33.8%) +25.7

Con GAIN from Ind

Rayleigh North, Essex County Council

LDem: 1,658 (57.4%) +12.3%

Con: 929 (32.2%) -11.8%

Ind: 164 (5.7%) New

Lab: 137 (4.7%) -6.1%

LDem HOLD

Hythe West & Langdown, New Forest District Council

LDem: 559 (41.3%) -26.6%

Con: 497 (36.7%) +4.6%

Lab: 253 (18.7%) New

Ind: 44 (3.3%) New

LDem HOLD

Downhall & Rawreth, Rochford District Council

LDem: 791 (71.5%) +1.4%

Con: 265 (23.9%) +2.1%

Lab: 51 (4.6%) -3.6%

LDem HOLD

Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge, Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 820 (58.7%) +4.5%

LDem: 524 (37.5%) +1.2%

Lab: 52 (3.7%) -5.7%

Con HOLD

Southchurch, Southend-on-Sea Borough Council

Con: 1,025 (64.3%) +1.1%

Ind: 294 (18.4%) New

Lab: 144 (9.0%) -7.3%

Grn: 87 (5.5%) -2.2%

LDem: 45 (2.8%) +0.1%

Con HOLD

Neroche, South Somerset District Council

LDem: 390 (52.8%) +26.8%

Con: 315 (42.6%) -18.8%

Grn: 19 (2.6%) New

Lab: 15 (2.0%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Redhill, Sunderland City Council

Lab: 709 (50.2%) +12.6%

LDem: 386 (27.4%) New

Con: 196 (13.9%) -0.3%

UKIP: 85 (6.0%) -34.9%

Grn: 35 (2.5%) -4.8%

Lab GAIN from UKIP

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

RefUK = Reform UK

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

Loony = Monster Raving Loony

Elvis = Church of the Militant Elvis

UKIP = UK Independence Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.02.22

Three by-elections this week and all in the south of England.  It was a clean sweep for the Lib Dems who held a seat in Eastleigh, while gaining two more - at the expense of an independent in Somerset and the Conservatives in Wealden.  Their gain in Wealden appears to have been assisted by the absence of a Labour candidate this time.  Last time Labour picked up 24.7 per cent of the vote.

The Lib Dem share of the vote was up in all three seats, while it was another fairly disappointing night for Labour who saw their vote share dip in both seats contested.

There were rare outings for Reform UK and the SDP, both of whom finished last.  A mixture of scant resources and the rarity of electoral appearances will continue to hinder the progress of any small party, regardless of how many MEPs they had three years ago.

Independent candidates were absent from both the Eastleigh and Somerset contests.  The latter was triggered by the incumbent independent having been disqualified from the council due to lack of attendance.

Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDem: 781 (43.9%) +7.0%

Lab: 433 (24.3%) -4.5%

Con: 362 (20.3%) -4.8%

Grn: 140 (7.9%) New

RefUK: 64 (3.6%) +0.2%

LDem HOLD

Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton Council

LDem: 259 (50.2%) +17.7%

Con: 223 (43.2%) +24.2%

Lab: 21 (4.1%) -6.8%

Ind: 13 (2.5%) New

LDem GAIN from Ind

Hailsham South, Wealden District Council

LDem: 394 (59.7%) +30.9%

Con: 254 (38.5%) -8.1%

SDP: 12 (1.8%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrats

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

RefUK = Reform UK

SDP = Social and Democratic Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 07.10.21

Seven council by-elections this week and six holds - two for Labour, four for the Lib Dems.  In Flintshire there was an open contest following the death of the sitting independent who was elected unopposed in 2017.  Labour won the seat this time round.

Penyffordd, Flintshire County Council

Lab: 437 (37.4%) New

Ind: 286 (24.5%) New

Ind: 283 (24.2%) New

Ind: 163 (13.9%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

St Ann’s, Nottingham City Council

Lab: 1,048 (65.5%) +0.9%

Ind: 204 (12.7%) New

Con: 193 (12.1%) +1.2%

Grn: 92 (5.7%) New

LDem: 40 (2.5%) -8.0%

TUSC: 24 (1.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Sherwood, Nottingham City Council

Lab: 1,174 (47.8%) -17.1%

Ind: 629 (25.6%) New

Con: 320 (13.0%) -1.0%

Grn: 195 (7.9%) New

TUSC: 76 (3.1%) New

LDem: 63 (2.6%) -9.8%

Lab HOLD

Musters, Rushcliffe Borough Council

LDem: 557 (45.3%) -11.5%

Lab: 353 (28.7%) +8.9%

Con: 320 (26.0%) +2.6%

LDem HOLD

Comeytrowe & Trull, Somerset County Council

LDem: 1,677 (63.2%) +15.6%

Con: 886 (33.4%) -6.4%

Lab: 92 (3.5%) -2.4%

LDem HOLD

Wilton & Sherford, Somerset West and Taunton Council

LDem: 489 (56.9%) -11.5%

Con: 314 (36.5%) +4.9%

Grn: 57 (6.6%) New

LDem HOLD

Cranleigh East, Waverley Borough Council

LDem: 903 (56.8%) +12.0%

Con: 686 (43.2%) +4.1%

LDem HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Con = Conservative

LDem = Liberal Democrat

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.07.21

There were eight by-elections in total and it was a good night for both the Conservatives (one gain, two holds) and the Greens (one gain, one hold).  The Lib Dems didn't bother selecting a candidate to defend their seat in North Somerset and the Green Party swept to victory on the back of their absence.  Labour held two of the three seats it was defending.

Fortune Green, Camden London Borough Council

LDem: 1,197 (46.7%) +10.2%

Lab: 849 (33.1%) -2.7%

Con: 518 (20.2%) +1.7%

LDem HOLD

Alkham & Capel-le-Ferne, Dover District Council

Con: 315 (48.7%) -3.4%

LDem: 173 (26.7%) -9.6%

Lab: 101 (15.6%) +4.0%

Grn: 58 (9.0%) New

Con HOLD

Humberstone & Hamilton, Leicester City Council

Con: 1,062 (44.7%) +18.4%

Lab: 790 (33.2%) -15.6%

LDem: 262 (11.0%) +1.2%

Grn: 190 (8.0%) -7.1%

ForBrit: 37 (1.6%) New

RefUK: 37 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Congresbury & Puxton, North Somerset Council

Grn: 594 (64.5%) New

Con: 270 (29.3%) +15.7%

Lab: 57 (6.2%) -25.8%

Grn GAIN from LDem

Tyn-Y-Nant, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Lab: 411 (80.9%) +8.8%

Con: 62 (12.2%) -15.6%

Plaid: 35 (6.9%) New

Lab HOLD

Staines, Spelthorne Borough Council

Grn: 561 (44.0%) +5.5%

Con: 486 (32.8%) +8.0%

Ind: 275 (18.6%) New

TUSC: 39 (2.6%) New

RefUK: 29 (2.0%) New

Grn HOLD

Cliftonville East, Thanet District Council

Con: 723 (74.5%) +14.8%

Lab: 211 (21.7%) -1.0%

WEP: 37 (3.8%) -13.8%

Con HOLD

Liscard, Wirral Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,137 (53.6%) +2.5%

Con: 582 (27.4%) +9.5%

LDem: 201 (9.5%) +0.1%

Grn: 109 (5.1%) -5.5%

Ind: 68 (3.2%) New

ForBrit: 26 (1.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

RefUK = Reform UK

ForBrit = For Britain

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

TUSC = Trade Union and Socialist Coalition

WEP = Women's Equality Council

Ind = Independents

LABOUR GAIN WEST OF ENGLAND

Labour's victorious Dan Norris (left) and Samuel Williams of the Tories

A shock result has been declared for the West of England mayor.  The Conservatives were expected to hold here, but Labour have taken the post after a run-off.  The incumbent mayor, Tim Bowles, retired ahead of the election.

UKIP did not contest this time round, nor did any independents.

West of England Mayor (Lab GAIN from Con)

Dan Norris (Lab) 84,434 (33.4%) +6.1%

Samuel Williams (Con) 72,415 (28.6%) +1.3%

Jerome Thomas (Green) 54,919 (21.7%) +10.5%

Stephen Williams (LDem) 41,193 (16.3%) -3.9%

Final Round

Dan Norris (Lab) 59.5% 

Samuel Williams (Con) 40.5%

GET OUT OF MY PUB!

Keir Starmer was sensationally barred from a pub in Bath during a walkabout in the Somerset town on Monday.  He was confronted outside The Raven pub by landlord Rod Humphris who had got wind of Starmer's presence.  Humphris was angry about Starmer's persistent support for coronavirus restrictions and even presented him with a graph to back up his argument.  In the video a sneering Starmer is heard to tell Mr Humphris: "I really don't need lectures from you about this pandemic".  The Labour leader then walks away and infuriates Mr Humphris further by entering his pub, the reason for which is not known.

A struggle then ensues in which Starmer's burly minder tries to stop the landlord from entering his own pub.  Mr Humphris manages to force his way in, but is cornered on a staircase.  While he is trapped on the stairs he repeatedly orders Starmer to leave the premises, which Starmer does, after retrieving Mr Humphris's spectacles which had fallen off during the struggle.

Watch below.

Assaulting a lifelong Labour voter on his own property is not a good look for Sir Squeaky.  More Red Wall votes will be lost on the back of this.  The hashtag #GetOutOfMyPub is currently trending on Twitter.

In a damage limitation interview after the incident, Starmer insinuated that Mr Humphris was a conspiracy theorist.  This is a typical establishment response towards lockdown sceptics, many of whom have legitimate concerns based on statistics and facts.  At no point during the exchange did Mr Humphris deny that there was a virus or a pandemic, but Starmer smears him anyway.

The landlord was later quoted by reporters:

"I had heard that the Labour Party were coming round and he turned up and I told him what I thought of him, basically.  I think he has utterly failed us as the leader of the Opposition, he has completely failed to ask the questions that needed asking, like, why did we throw away our previous pandemic preparedness?  Why have we just accepted lockdown?"

A very good question indeed.  The next question will be just how much longer we are going to stand for it?  There were just four coronavirus deaths reported on Monday across the whole of the UK and figures released by the Office for National Statistics show that around a quarter of deaths attributed to Covid-19 are not actually a result of the virus.