Saturday, 30 November 2019

THE WEEK IN CARTOONS 24-30 NOV 2019

24.11.19 - Bob Moran, Sunday Telegraph 
24.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Sunday Telegraph
24.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Sunday Telegraph
24.11.19 - Scott Clissold, Sunday Express
25.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
25.11.19 - Steve Bright, The Sun
26.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
26.11.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
27.11.19 - Graeme Bandeira, Yorkshire Post
27.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph
27.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
27.11.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
28.11.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
29.11.19 - Bob Moran, Daily Telegraph
29.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph
29.11.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
29.11.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
30.11.19 - Graeme Bandeira, Yorkshire Post 
30.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph

KEELEY FEELS THE BURN

The following video was sent in by David, one of our Facebook followers.  It's fair to say his Brexit-blocking Labour MP Barbara Keeley won't be getting his vote and why should she?  Worsley & Eccles South returned a 60% Leave vote in 2016.


According to the YouGov 'MRP model' released earlier this week, Keeley is expected to cling onto her seat, albeit with a slashed majority.  Other Labour Remainers won't be so lucky.  Unlike every other polling method, the MRP poll accurately predicted a hung Parliament in 2017.

Worsley & Eccles South candidates 2019

Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Arnie Saunders (Con)
Joe Johnson-Tod (Lib Dem)
Daniel Towers (Green)
Seamus Martin (Brexit)

Worsley & Eccles South general election 2017

Barbara Keeley (Lab) 26,046 (57.1%) +12.8%
Iain Lindley (Con) 17,667 (38.7%) +8.6%
Kate Clarkson (Lib Dem) 1,087 (2.4%) -0.2%
Tom Dylan (Green) 842 (1.8%) -1.1%

CORBYN QUESTIONS ISRAEL'S "RIGHT TO EXIST"

Jeremy Corbyn has been exposed in a newly uncovered interview where he questions Israel's right to exist.  The 2011 piece conducted with Iranian Press TV shows Corbyn discussing what he perceives as a pro-Israeli bias on the BBC.  He name-checks the then director-general of the BBC - Mark Thompson - as someone who "has an agenda".  Thompson's wife is Jewish.

In the video Corbyn says that the BBC displays a bias towards saying that "Israel is a democracy", "Israel has a right to exist" and "Israel has its security concerns".  The mind boggles.  How did this man become the leader of the Labour Party?  The hard left elected him.  How is anti-Semitism rampant in the Labour Party?  The hard left are in control now.

Friday, 29 November 2019

GISELA STUART BACKS BORIS

Former Labour MP Gisela Stuart appeared alongside Boris Johnson and Michael Gove today and urged voters to back the Conservatives.  While several of her former colleagues have already voiced support for the Tories at this election, this is the first time a former Labour MP has actually appeared at a Conservative event.  Stuart was a prominent figure in the Leave campaign and stood down as the MP for Birmingham Edgbaston in 2017.  Her message today was clearly aimed at Labour Leave voters in the Labour heartlands, whose votes could very well decide the outcome of this election.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 28.11.19

Just three by-elections last night.  It was a great night for the Remain parties with the Lib Dems successfully defending one seat, taking another and also a gain for the Greens.  The Green win came largely thanks to the absence of a Lib Dem candidate, while the Lib Dems succeeded in Wiltshire largely thanks to the absence of both the Greens and Labour.  The Conservative vote in that election dipped a little, but rose in the other two seats.  The Labour vote was down slightly in the two seats it contested, finishing last in both.

Sheringham North, North Norfolk District Council

Lib Dem: 364 (48.4%) -15.0%
Con: 323 (43.0%) +17.8%
Lab: 65 (8.6%) -2.8%

Lib Dem HOLD

Wallingford, Oxfordshire County Council

Green: 998 (40.9%) +30.0%
Con: 755 (31.0%) +6.9%
Ind: 483 (19.8%) New
Lab: 202 (8.3%) -4.2%

Green GAIN from Ind

Trowbridge Lambrok, Wiltshire Council

Lib Dem: 622 (57.8%) +25.6%
Con: 455 (42.2%) -3.4%

Lib Dem GAIN from Con

Thursday, 28 November 2019

IN FOCUS: BRISTOL

The city of Bristol contains four Parliamentary constituencies, all of which returned a Labour candidate in 2017 - the first time it has done so since 2001.


Population (2018 est):  463,400
City Council:  Labour, since 2016
Composition:  Labour (36 cllrs), Conservative (15), Green (11), Lib Dem (8)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 84.0%, black 6,0%, Asian 5.5%, mixed 3.6%, Arab 0.3%, other 0.6%
EU referendum:  62% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Bristol West (Thangam Debbonaire, Lab) majority 37,336
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Bristol North West (Darren Jones, Lab) majority 4,761

Bristol South and Bristol East have been held by Labour for decades, while Bristol North West is a marginal that has regularly changed hands between blue and red since its creation in 1950.  Bristol West has been held by all three main parties, but threw a curve ball in the 2017 election.  Having been recaptured by Labour in 2015 from the Lib Dems, the party inexplicably increased its majority from a mere 5,673 to more than 37,000 - the biggest swing to Labour in the entire country.  The result was totally unexpected and raised a few eyebrows.

Bristol City Council has been controlled by Labour for most of its history, except for two years of Lib Dem control (2009-2011) and several periods of no overall control.  After being punished by voters for their part in the coalition government, the Lib Dems have gradually fallen behind the Conservatives and the Greens.

Following a referendum in 2012, Bristol chose to elect its mayor.  A local campaigner won the first contest on behalf of 'Bristol 1st', beating Labour into second place.  Labour turned the tables in the second mayoral election and since 2016 the post has been held by Marvin Rees.

Bristol returned a big Remain vote in 2016 and does not have any Leave-voting seats.  All of its MPs are Remainers, two of whom ignored party whips to vote against the triggering of Article 50.  Only one of the four MPs was born in Bristol.  Jeremy Corbyn found no support among Bristol's Labour MPs during the leadership challenge of 2016 as they all backed Owen Smith.

Bristol East

Incumbent:  Kerry McCarthy (Lab), majority 13,394
Born:  Luton, 1965
First elected:  2005
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Briefly a member of Corbyn's shadow cabinet for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, despite being a vegan and a vocal critic of meat-eating.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Expenses scandal, electoral fraud, Twitter train outburst

Bristol East has been held by Labour since 1992

EU referendum:  53% Remain

General election 2017

Kerry McCarthy (Lab) 30,847 (60.7%) +21.5%
Theodora Clarke (Con) 17,453 (34.4%) +3.7%
Chris Lucas (Lib Dem) 1,389 (2.7%) -3.1%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 1,110 (2.2%) -6.1%

General election candidates 2019

Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Sarah Codling (Con)
Nick Coombes (Lib Dem)
Conan Connolly (Green)
Tim Page (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Bristol North West

Incumbent:  Darren Jones (Lab), majority 4,761
Born:  Bristol, 1986
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  An ardent Remainer, following his surprise election in 2017 he stated that stopping Brexit was his number one priority.  Jones is also a solicitor and leads the Future Britain Group, a gathering of Labour moderates established by Tom Watson.

Bristol North West has been held by Labour since 2017, but has regularly changed hands between Labour and the Tories since its creation in 1950.

EU referendum:  61% Remain

General election 2017

Darren Jones (Lab) 27,400 (50.7%) +16.2%
Charlotte Leslie (Con) 22,639 (41.8%) -2.1%
Celia Downie (Lib Dem) 2,814 (5.2%) -1.0%
Sharmila Bousa (Green) 1,243 (2.3%) -3.4%

General election candidates 2019

Darren Jones (Lab)
Mark Weston (Con)
Chris Coleman (Lib Dem)
Heather Mack (Green)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Bristol South

Incumbent:  Karin Smyth (Lab), majority 15,987
Born:  London, 1964
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  The daughter of Irish immigrants.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.

Bristol South has been held by Labour since 1935

EU referendum:  52% Remain

General election 2017

Karin Smyth (Lab) 32,666 (60.1%) +21.7%
Mark Weston (Con) 16,679 (30.7%) +6.3%
Ben Nutland (Lib Dem) 1,821 (3.3%) -5.3%
Ian Kealey (UKIP) 1,672 (3.1%) -13.4%
Tony Dyer (Green) 1,428 (2.6%) -8.9%
John Langley (Ind) 116 (0.2%) New

General election candidates 2019

Karin Smyth (Lab)
Rick Morgan (Con)
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem)
Tony Dyer (Green)
Robert Boutin (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Bristol West

Incumbent:  Thangam Debbonaire (Lab), majority 37,336
Born:  Peterborough, 1966
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Privately educated.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.  She holds the fourth highest majority of any MP in the country.

Bristol West has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems from 2005

EU referendum:  79% Remain, the third strongest Remain vote in the UK

General election 2017

Thangam Debbonaire (Lab) 47,213 (65.9%) +30.3%
Annabel Tall (Con) 9,877 (13.8%) -1.4%
Molly Scott Cato (Green) 9,216 (12.9%) -14.0%
Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) 5,201 (7.3%) -11.6%
Jodian Rodgers (Money Free) 101 (0.1%) New

General election candidates 2019

Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)
Suria Aujla (Con)
Carla Denyer (Green)
Neil Hipkiss (Brexit)

Note:  This is a Remain Alliance seat, where the Liberal Democrats have stood down in order to give the Green Party a free run.

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Cardiff

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YOUGOV BOOST FOR BORIS

Despite Labour showing a slight recovery in opinion polls this week, a major YouGov analysis released last night suggests a comfortable 68 seat majority for the Conservatives.  The seat-by-seat analysis suggests the Tories will make most of their gains in the north of England.  There would be no seats for the Brexit Party and little advance for the Lib Dems.  Only the SNP would add any significant number of seats to their current tally.


Of course all opinion polls should be treated with great caution, as the only one that truly matters will be taken on December 12th, but it should be noted that the 'MRP model' deployed by YouGov was the only poll that correctly predicted a hung Parliament in 2017.  The seat by seat predictions can be accessed via the YouGov site here.

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

TAKING THE NORTH-EAST FOR GRANTED?

A podcast from Robert Peston earlier this week focused on the north-east of England.  Despite being one of the Labour heartlands, Peston's correspondent said there was a distinct lack of Labour presence n the campaign thus far.  Listen below.


If Corbyn's name is truly bombing on the doorsteps of the north-east this is yet another blow to Labour's chances of forming a coalition government.  In YouGov's big regional polls last month it was one of only three regions where Labour maintained a lead over the Tories and remained the strongest Labour region outside London.  Perhaps, as Peston's correspondent alludes, therein lies the problem.  London should not be Labour's strongest region, the Labour heartlands are traditionally the north of England and south Wales.  Corbyn and co are increasingly, and quite rightly, being seen as a London clique.  If Labour were to win next month then all four of the Great Offices of State would be occupied by London MPs - Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry.  They truly are the Party of London and they are going to lose many seats in their heartlands next month.

Tuesday, 26 November 2019

YOUNG BRICKIE PREFERS BORIS


The bricklaying publicity stunt is an electioneering standard, but it somewhat backfired on Jeremy Corbyn.  The young Nottinghamshire apprentice who appeared in his tweet told reporters afterwards that he prefers Boris Johnson "100 per cent".  Oops.

ANDREW NEIL DESTROYS CORBYN

It's been dubbed one of the worst car crash interviews of all time.  Really?  As bad as Diane, Lady Nugee or Dickie Burgon?  Watch below for the full Andrew Neil dissection of Jeremy Corbyn's disastrous leadership and decide for yourselves...

MOMENTUM'S DIVIDE & CONQUER

Momentum have come under fire again for one of their bizarre election videos.  Following on from the Batman and Coca-Cola disasters, they've dedicated their latest effort into attacking every single boss and landlord in Britain - without exception.  Watch below.


It would have been simple enough to single out 'bad bosses' and 'bad landlords', but clearly the hatred is strong in these far left zealots.  There are good bosses and there are decent landlords, we cannot allow this divide and rule tactic to deliver a Marxist coalition next month.  With Labour creeping up the polls in the last couple of days there is no room for complacency.  Make sure you do your bit.

Monday, 25 November 2019

CAN TICE TAKE HARTLEPOOL?

The Brexit Party's Richard Tice, pictured in Hartlepool

With Nigel Farage not standing in this election, the decision to parachute party chairman Richard Tice into Leave-voting Hartlepool appears to be a clear message of intent.  Tice told reporters earlier this month that the Brexit Party "plan to win and win big" in the town.  It's no wonder that his party has chosen Hartlepool as a key target.  They are the joint largest party on Hartlepool Borough Council and have led the council since September, having formed a coalition with the Conservatives.  In 2016 Hartlepool returned one of the strongest Leave votes in the country at almost 70%.  The party romped to victory in the European elections earlier this year.

However, not many are convinced that the Brexit Party can win Hartlepool, let alone anywhere else.  The local Tory chairman responded to Tice's candidature by saying that the Brexit Party had "effectively handed the seat to Labour".  Is he right?  He may well be.

While there is no constituency polling information for Hartlepool there was a recent poll conducted for the seat of Great Grimsby.  Like Hartlepool, Grimsby is a northern coastal town whose fishing industries have declined over the years, due in no small part to our membership of the EU.  Both have returned Labour MPs since the middle of the last century and both voted Leave by huge margins.  However, the Survation poll suggested that the Brexit Party would trail both Labour and the Tories by a long way.

Great Grimsby polling intention (Survation, 14-15 Nov)

Con: 44% (+2%)
Lab: 31% (-18%)
Brexit: 17% (New)
Lib Dem: 4% (+1%)
Green: 3% (New)

(increase/decrease based on 2017 result)

If this poll was repeated at the general election a whopping 17% from nowhere would be an otherwise stunning result for any party.  However, this is a seat that the Brexit Party would be looking to win, not merely come a strong third.  While it could be argued that the party's higher profile campaigning in Hartlepool may swing it for them, it's difficult to see it happening.  If you look at Great Grimsby what appears to be happening is that the Labour vote is collapsing and transferring almost entirely to the Brexit Party.  The result is potentially a Tory gain with just a small swing.

Let's say that something very similar happens in Hartlepool, but perhaps the Brexit Party takes even more votes off Labour.  Imagine that the Tories replicate that tiny swing also.  What would happen in that scenario is Labour would hold Hartlepool with a much smaller majority.  The Brexit Party would almost certainly finish third, albeit an impressive result for a brand new party.

In summary, the Tory chairman is wrong to blame the Brexit Party if his party doesn't win Hartlepool.  Electoral history here suggests the Tories have no right to take this seat anyway.  The town has not returned a Conservative MP since 1959, so no-one is really 'handing the seat to Labour' and in any case, the Brexit Party is demolishing the Labour vote - not the Tory vote.  Like many other northern, Midland and Welsh seats at this election, a Brexit Party presence may actually help the Tories, not hinder them.

In an ideal world the Tories would have stood down in places like Hartlepool and given the Brexit Party a free run at Labour.  Sadly the Conservatives would not entertain a 'Leave Alliance' in the same way that the Lib Dems have arranged a 'Remain Alliance' with the Greens and Plaid.  Will this failure ultimately open the door to a Labour/SNP nightmare coalition?  We'll soon find out.

Hartlepool candidates 2019

Mike Hill (Lab)
Stefan Houghton (Con)
Richard Tice (Brexit)
Andy Hagon (Lib Dem)
Kevin Cranney (Soc Lab)
Joe Bousfield (Ind)

Hartlepool general election 2017

Mike Hill (Lab) 21,969 (52.5%) +16.9%
Carl Jackson (Con) 14,319 (34.2%) +13.3%
Phillip Broughton (UKIP) 4,801 (11.5) -16.5%
Andy Hagon (Lib Dem) 746 (1.8%) -0.1%

CAMPAIGN STATS 25.11.19

Ups and downs last week, but crucially Karl managed to design some very good memes.  Sadly he's going to continue to be very busy at work in the run-up to Christmas, but there is nothing we can do about that.  Richey continues to eke out an existence on the breadline and we've enjoyed much more traffic towards the blog in the last week.  No new donations to speak of, so it'll be a pretty miserable Christmas except we're both hoping for one big consolation - no Corbyn in Number Ten.  Richey will almost certainly have to go back to work in the New Year, so make the most of BTLP while it's being run full-time.  You can donate via PayPal here.

Blog

478,784 total page views (+12,937)

Facebook

94,776 likes (+744)
100,305 follows (+807)

5,540 most shared post (-7,504)
26 number of posts

1,789,923 post reach (-514,981)
442,884 post engagement (-206,675)

Facebook (backup page)

4,622 likes (+73)
4,893 follows (+87)

Twitter

799 followers (+4)

YouTube

175 subscribers (+5)

Figures correct at time of publishing.

A TALE OF TWO LEAFLETS

There are currently two almost identical leaflets being distributed in the Cheshire seat of Altrincham & Sale West.  One from Labour claims that they are the nearest challengers to the incumbent, while the other claims it is the Lib Dems who are closest.  So, who is correct?


The Lib Dems are renowned for their use of dodgy bar charts and the Altrincham example is no exception.  While the Labour leaflet uses figures from the 2017 general election, the Lib Dem leaflet uses figures from the 2019 European elections.  This is disingenuous to say the least and they know it, having neglected to quote the source in full.  Instead they only refer to the "most recent 2019 elections" in the small print.

So why is this wrong, and why is it irrelevant?

People vote very differently in elections to the UK Parliament and the European Parliament.  If people voted the same way in both then we would have had a UKIP government elected in 2015 and we'd be looking at a Brexit Party majority next month.  European election results are simply no indicator of how people will vote in a general election.  While this is a strong Remain seat, electors overwhelmingly chose Leave-mandated parties in 2017 - both the Tories and Labour stood on pro-Leave manifestos.  Meanwhile, the Lib Dems and Greens came nowhere.

Altrincham & Sale West candidates 2019

Graham Brady (Con)
Andrew Western (Lab)
Angela Smith (Lib Dem)
Geraldine Coggins (Green)
Neil Taylor (Lib)
Iram Kiani (Ind)

EU referendum vote

61% Remain

Altrincham & Sale West general election 2017

Graham Brady (Con) 26,933 (51.0%) -2.0%
Andrew Western (Lab) 20,507 (38.8%) +12.2%
Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) 4,051 (7.7%) -0.7%
Geraldine Coggins (Green) 1,000 (1.9%) -2.0%
Neil Taylor (Lib) 299 (0.6%) New

Sunday, 24 November 2019

MOST SHARED: WEEK 240


Thankfully the British public appear to be immune to the increasingly outlandish promises being rolled out by Labour.  Since Corbyn launched his 'little red book' on Thursday the party has continued to flatline in the opinion polls.  Still, there's no room for complacency, no matter how bad it looks for the Great Leader.

The above meme was shared 5,540 times via the Facebook page.

McDONNELL VS RIDGE

John McDonnell's eyebrows were working overtime this morning as he got a thorough grilling from Sophy Ridge on Sky.  An array of bizarre facial expressions were on display as he faced tough questions on the costing of Labour's absurd Britain-busting manifesto.  He was also challenged on Labour's second referendum and confirmed that he would oppose the deal that Labour negotiate, perhaps leaving Jeremy Corbyn as the only member of the Parliamentary party to be left sitting on the fence.  Asked whether he would put money on Labour winning the election, the Quartermaster dodged the question by saying he's "given up on gambling".  Watch below.

Saturday, 23 November 2019

THE WEEK IN CARTOONS 17-23 NOV 2019

17.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Sunday Telegraph
17.11.19 - Morten Morland, Sunday Times 
19.11.19 - Morten Morland, The Times
19.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph
19.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
20.11.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
21.11.19 - Paul Thomas, Daily Mail
21.11.19 - Matt Pritchett, Daily Telegraph 
21.11.19 - Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph
22.11.19 - Bob Moran, Daily Telegraph
22.11.19 - Christian Adams, Evening Standard 
22.11.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
23.11.19 - Bob Moran, Daily Telegraph
23.11.19 - Peter Brookes, The Times
23.11.19 - Morten Morland, The Spectator

CORBYN'S QT LIE EXPOSED

A damning video appeared following Corbyn's appearance on the Question Time special on Friday night.  During the show Corbyn was taken to task on anti-Semitism by a member of the audience, in particular his interaction with a far left thug in 2016.  The question related to an incident in which Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth walked out of a Labour event to mark the launch of the Chakrabarti Inquiry.  Hard left activist Marc Wadsworth had accused her of working with 'right-wing' press against the party leadership.  Wadsworth was later expelled, but continues to back Corbyn.

The Great Leader responded to the audience member's accusation by admitting that he said 'hello' to Wadsworth, but in fact he did much more than that as the video revealed.  "I'll send you a text" Corbyn tells Wadsworth who responds moments later by announcing "I outed Smeeth".  They may as well have high-fived.

Friday, 22 November 2019

MOMENTUM DELETES COKE VIDEO

Following last week's bizarre Batman video, Momentum have now tried to get Corbyn's communist message across by rejigging an old Coca Cola advert.  They've taken the classic Christmas advert and replaced the Coke logos with Labour manifesto pledges, including the brazen lie that only the 'top five per cent' will have their taxes increased under Corbyn.  Watch below.


By utilising one of the most recognisable brands of global capitalism to broadcast their message suggests there's no lack of irony in the Momentum media team.  However, the 'capitalist scum' at Coca Cola were not amused.

An official statement said:  "We have been made aware of a social post from Momentum which uses footage from the Coca-Cola Christmas advert.  The film is in no way endorsed by the Coca-Cola Company and we have not given permission for any footage to be used in this way.  We are taking steps to ensure this is removed."

Despite all of Momentum's cocky arrogance in taking on the might of the capitalist system, they deleted their video within half an hour of Coca-Cola's statement.  The damages probably would have bankrupted them.  The irony.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.11.19

There were six by-elections last night - three in England, two in Scotland and one in Wales.  Labour contested four of these and once again their share of the vote was down in each.  They managed to hold a seat in Lancashire, despite plummeting 28 points thanks to the recently formed Skelmersdale Independent Party.  They lost a seat to the Conservatives in Cardiff thanks to a Tory swing.

The Tories had a stunning night all round, gaining three seats overall and holding another.  Their vote share was up in five out of the six seats.  As the weeks tick down to the big election, there is absolutely no sign of a Labour surge.

Torry/Ferryhill, Aberdeen City Council

SNP: 1,618 (43.2%) +11.8%
Con: 972 (26.0%) +2.1%
Lab: 395 (10.6%) -12.8%
Lib Dem: 315 (8.4%) +3.3%
Green: 304 (8.1%) +3.3%
Ind: 86 (2.3%) New
UKIP: 53 (1.4%) +0.5%

SNP HOLD

Llanishen, Cardiff City Council

Con: 1,566 (43.4%) +6.3%
Lab: 1,254 (34.7%) -1.2%
Lib Dem: 387 (10.7%) +3.1%
Plaid: 209 (5.8%) -2.7%
Green: 138 (3.8%) -3.0%
Ind: 59 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Loxwood, Chichester District Council

Con: 1,005 (61.8%) +17.4%
Lib Dem: 486 (29.9%) -25.7%
Green: 126 (7.7%) New
Patria: 9 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lib Dem

Keith & Cullen, Moray Council

Con: 1,339 (41.5%) +7.1%
SNP: 1,184 (38.1%) -0.7%
Ind: 430 (12.7%) +3.3%
Lib Dem: 212 (7.7%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Birch Green, West Lancashire Borough Council

Lab: 390 (60.8%) -28.0%
Skelm: 191 (29.8%) New
Con: 60 (9.4%) -1.8%

Lab HOLD

Bourne, West Sussex County Council

Con: 1,368 (48.9%) +8.7%
Lib Dem: 1,009 (36.0%) +16.5%
Green: 250 (8.9%) +2.0%
Lab: 161 (5.8%) -2.1%
Patria: 12 (0.4%) New

Con HOLD

'IRA SCUM' CORBYN HECKLED IN DUDLEY

As we pointed out on Facebook yesterday morning, the launch of Labour's manifesto in Birmingham happened to coincide with the anniversary of the Birmingham pub bombings.


One of the worst atrocities of the Troubles, many locals were understandably outraged that Labour chose Birmingham on that specific day.  As Corbyn arrived in a Black Country marginal yesterday afternoon he was confronted by angry protesters who shouted "IRA scum" and asked if he would be attending a memorial for the victims.  As per usual, the Labour leader was quickly ushered away from the scene.


Dudley North candidates 2019

Melanie Dudley (Lab)
Marco Longhi (Con)
Ian Flynn (Lib Dem)
Mike Harrison (Green)

Dudley North general election 2017

Ian Austin (Lab) 18,090 (46.5%) +4.7%
Les Jones (Con) 18,068 (46.4%) +15.6%
Bill Etheridge (UKIP) 2,144 (5.5%) -18.5%
Ben France (Lib Dem) 368 (0.9%) -0.3%
Andrew Nixon (Green) 240 (0.6%) -0.7%

Dudley South candidates 2019

Mike Wood (Con)
Lucy Caldicott (Lab)
Jonathan Bramall (Lib Dem)
Cate Mohr (Green)

Dudley South general election 2017

Mike Wood (Con) 21,588 (56.4%) +12.7%
Natasha Millward (Lab) 13,858 (36.2%) +3.6%
Mitchell Bolton (UKIP) 1,791 (4.7%) -14.3%
Jonathan Bramall (Lib Dem) 625 (1.6%) -0.5%
Jenny Maxwell (Green) 382 (1.0%) -1.5%

KEEP YOUR ALLOTMENT HANDS OFF!

Yet another high profile former Labour supporter has publicly slammed the party.  Jewish actress Maureen Lipman has appeared in a video produced by Ian Austin's Mainstream organisation, reviving an old TV character.  Lipman plays 'Beattie', the same character she played in BT adverts in the 1980s and 1990s.  However, this time she is primarily concerned with slating Jeremy Corbyn's party, from his broadband policy to anti-Semitism.  In a move that's sure to trigger Corbynista keyboard warriors a Star of David is displayed prominently throughout the video.  Watch below.

Thursday, 21 November 2019

IN FOCUS: LIVERPOOL

A supposed bastion of the hard left, Liverpool contains four Parliamentary constituencies inside its city boundaries.  A fifth seat - Garston and Halewood - overlaps with neighbouring Knowsley and consists of five Liverpool council wards and three Knowsley wards.  At the 2017 general election all five seats returned Labour MPs, but two of whom have since resigned from the party (Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman).


Population (2018 est):  494,814
City Council:  Labour, since 2010
Composition:  Labour (72 cllrs), Lib Dem (10), Green (4), Liberal (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 88.8%, Asian 4.1%, black 2.6%, mixed 2.5%, Arab 1.2%, other 0.8%
EU referendum:  58% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman, Ind*) majority 35,947
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Wavertree (Luciana Berger, Lib Dem*) majority 29,466

* Elected as Labour MPs

Liverpool has returned a solid slate of Labour MPs since the Labour landslide of 1997.  The last non-Labour MP elected here was the Liberal Democrat David Alton who held the seat of Liverpool Mossley Hill until its abolition in 1997.  All five MPs elected in 2017 had huge majorities and Liverpool Walton is regarded as the safest Labour seat in Britain.  However, of the five members elected in 2017 only two are defending their seats at the forthcoming election.  Two Jewish MPs (Berger and Ellman) were driven out of the party and Stephen Twigg has opted not to stand again.

The recent selection process to replace these MPs was marred by controversy.  Accusations of a stitch-up swirled as outsiders were installed on the ballot paper in favour of local candidates.  One of those in the running was a councillor all the way from Islington no less.  It wouldn't be the first time outsiders were chosen for the ultra safe seats of Liverpool, but this time the stitch-up was largely defeated.  It should be noted that only one of the five incumbents is a Scouser.  In a month's time this is highly likely to have risen to four out of five.

Although the Parliamentary return has been a solid red for more than two decades, contrary to popular opinion the city council has been less so.  The famed hard left have frequently lost control in Liverpool over the years.  Following the last Tory-led council of 1972 the council has actually spent more time out of Labour's control.  Intermittent periods of no overall control was followed by a stable period of Lib Dem control between 1998 and 2010.  Following the electoral backlash against Lib Dem involvement in the coalition government, Labour has asserted itself with an overwhelming majority.  This is currently the longest ever period of Labour control in Liverpool.

A secondary layer of local government here is the Liverpool City Region.  This combined authority also takes in the neighbouring local authorities of Halton, Knowsley, St Helens, Sefton and the Wirral.  The elected mayor is Labour's Joe Anderson, also the leader of Liverpool City Council.

Liverpool voted to Remain in 2016 and all its MPs are Remainers, including three hard Remainers who in 2017 voted against triggering Article 50 (Ellman, Berger and Eagle).  Despite the city's reputation, Jeremy Corbyn found little support among its MPs during the 2016 leadership challenge, four out of five of whom backed Owen Smith.

Liverpool Riverside

Incumbent:  Louise Ellman (Ind), majority 35,947
Born:  Manchester, 1945
First elected:  1997, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Ellman is Jewish and quit Labour in October 2019 in protest at Labour anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.  This followed multiple attempts to have her deselected.  She became Dame Louise Ellman in 2018.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.  Ellman is not standing in the forthcoming election.

Riverside was held by Labour since its creation in 1983

EU referendum:  73% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Louise Ellman (Lab) 40,599 (84.5%) +17.1%
Pamela Hall (Con) 4,652 (9.7%) +0.1%
Stephanie Pitchers (Green) 1,582 (3.3%) -8.8%
Tom Sebire (Lib Dem) 1,187 (2.5%) -1.4%

General election candidates 2019

Kim Johnson (Lab)
Sean Malkeson (Con)
Tom Crone (Green)
Robert McAllister-Bell (Lib Dem)
David Leach (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Walton

Incumbent:  Dan Carden (Lab), majority 32,551
Born:  Liverpool, 1986
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
Scandals:  Hey Jews

Walton has been held by Labour since 1964.  After the last general election it is the safest Labour seat in Britain.

EU referendum:  52% Leave, only Leave seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Dan Carden (Lab) 36,175 (85.7%) +4.4%
Laura Evans (Con) 3,624 (8.6%) +3.9%
Terry May (Ind) 1,237 (2.9%) New
Kris Brown (Lib Dem) 638 (1.5%) -0.8%
Colm Feeley (Green) 523 (1.2%) -1.2%

General election candidates 2019

Dan Carden (Lab)
Alex Phillips (Con)
David Newman (Lib Dem)
Ted Grant (Green)
Billy Lake (Liberal)

Note:  UKIP came second here with 9% of the vote in 2015, so the absence of a Brexit Party candidate is rather inexplicable.

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Wavertree

Incumbent:  Luciana Berger (Lib Dem), majority 29,466
Born:  London, 1981
First elected:  2010, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Berger is Jewish and quit Labour in February 2019 alongside six other MPs to form Change UK.  She later switched to the Liberal Democrats, but will not defend her seat at the next election.  Instead, she will be contesting the London seat of Finchley & Golders Green.  Berger was privately educated.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.

Wavertree was held by Labour since its creation in 1997

EU referendum:  65% Remain

General election 2017

Luciana Berger (Lab) 34,717 (79.5%) +10.2%
Denise Haddad (Con) 5,251 (12.0%) +2.0%
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem) 2,858 (6.5%) +0.5%
Ted Grant (Green) 598 (1.4%) -3.8%
Adam Heatherington (Ind) 216 (0.5%) New

General election candidates 2019

Paula Barker (Lab)
Catherine Mulhern (Con)
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem)
Kay Inckle (Green)
Adam Heatherington (Brexit)
Mick Coyne (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool West Derby

Incumbent:  Stephen Twigg (Lab), majority 32,908
Born:  London, 1966
First elected:  1997, for Enfield Southgate
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Twigg rose to fame when he unseated cabinet minister Michael Portillo in 1997.  The Tories retook the seat in 2005 and Twigg was out of Parliament until 2010 when he was selected for the safe Labour seat of Liverpool West Derby.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition, but is not standing this time.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Drunk and incapable

West Derby has been held by Labour since 1964

EU referendum:  50.2% Remain

General election 2017

Stephen Twigg (Lab) 37,371 (82.8%) +7.6%
Paul Richardson (Con) 4,463 (9.9%) +3.3%
Steve Radford (Liberal) 2,150 (4.8%) -0.2%
Paul Parr (Lib Dem) 545 (1.2%) -1.1%
Will Ward (Green) 329 (0.7%) -1.7%
Graham Hughes (Ind) 305 (0.7) New

General election candidates 2019

Ian Byrne (Lab)
Tom Bradley (Con)
Steve Radford (Liberal)
Paul Parr (Lib Dem)
Will Ward (Green)
Ray Pearson (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Garston & Halewood

Incumbent:  Maria Eagle (Lab), majority 32,149
Born:  East Yorkshire, 1961
First elected:  1997
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Elected to Parliament at the second attempt (she unsuccessfully contested Crosby in 1992).  Twin sister of fellow Labour MP Angela Eagle.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Expenses scandal

Garston & Halewood has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010.  It largely follows the boundaries of the previous seat of Liverpool Halewood which was held by Labour between 1983-2010.  The new seat absorbed three council wards from neighbouring Knowsley.

EU referendum:  52% Remain

General election 2017

Maria Eagle (Lab) 41,599 (77.7%) +8.6%
Adam Marsden (Con) 9,450 (17.7%) +4.0%
Anna Martin (Lib Dem) 1,723 (3.2%) -1.5%
Lawrence Brown (Green) 750 (1.4%) -2.1%

General election candidates 2019

Maria Eagle (Lab)
Neva Novaky (Con)
Kris Brown (Lib Dem)
Jean-Paul Roberts (Green)
Jake Fraser (Brexit)
Hazel Williams (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Bristol

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RACHEL RILEY'S VICIOUS CIRCLE

The vicious circle of Rachel Riley's battle with the hard left continues.  The day after her photo appeared in newspapers wearing an anti-Corbyn t-shirt the same newspapers are printing the furious online backlash against her.  Hard left trolls are always triggered by any criticism of Corbyn, but when they pile in on certain individuals they quite often stiffen their target's resolve.  Rachel Riley is one such individual and clearly has no intention of backing down.  The more she lashes out against the Great Leader, the more his tyrannical followers hit back.

We don't use the word 'tyrannical' lightly.  Just look at some of these comments, from calling on her employers to sack her to a rather sinister countdown clock perhaps suggesting that a Labour government would silence her...


As this article was being written, the trolls also have the hashtag #sackRachelRiley trending on Twitter.

RUSSELL-WOTSIT IN TOO DEEP

Perhaps all the important hands were to the pump on Wednesday as Labour prepared to launch its communist manifesto.  How else to explain how the candidate for Brighton Kemptown was rolled out to talk about Labour's NHS conspiracy theory on the BBC's Politics Live.  "You've got no evidence" host Jo Coburn repeatedly told the hapless backbencher as he rattled off the usual Labour scare story about the NHS being sold off to the United States.


Brighton Kemptown candidates 2019

Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Lab)
Joe Miller (Con)
Ben Thomas (Lib Dem)
Graham Cushway (Brexit)
Alexandra Phillips (Green)

Brighton Kemptown general election 2017

Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Lab) 28,703 (58.3%) +19.2%
Simon Kirby (Con) 18,835 (38.3%) -2.4%
Emily Tester (Lib Dem) 1,457 (3.0%) N/c
Doktor Haze (Ind) 212 (0.4%) New

Wednesday, 20 November 2019

BREXIT PARTY VS MORRISONS

Footage emerged today of a Brexit Party candidate being physically prevented from entering a Morrisons supermarket in Manchester.  The video shows Martin Power, the party's candidate for Denton and Reddish, repeatedly trying to enter the store, but being pushed back by both a security guard and a member of the public.  Mr Power is told by the two men to "f*** off" several times while being manhandled, shoved and eventually thrown to the ground.  At this point he gives up and walks away before explaining to a shopper what had happened.

Mr Power was clutching a wad of leaflets, but in the video he tells the security guard repeatedly that he just wants a cup of tea.  A spokesperson for Morrisons claims that Mr Power had been handing out leaflets inside the store and customers had complained.  However, the video only shows the candidate approaching the store and there is no suggestion that he has been previously removed.  Would someone seriously campaign inside a supermarket?  As he himself points out, it was more likely that he was handing out leaflets near the store and someone complained, leading to the overzealous actions of the security guard.  Watch the full video below.


Denton & Reddish candidates 2019

Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Iain Bott (Con)
Dominic Hardwick (Lib Dem)
Gary Lawson (Green)
Farmin Lord F'Tang F'tang Dave (Loony)
Martin Power (Brexit)

Denton & Reddish general election 2017

Andrew Gwynne (Lab) 25,161 (63.5%) +12.7%
Rozila Kana (Con) 11,084 (28.0%) +4.3%
Josh Seddon (UKIP) 1,798 (4.5%) -14.1%
Louise Ankers (Lib Dem) 853 (2.2%) -0.3%
Gareth Hayes (Green) 486 (1.2%) -2.6%
Farmin Lord Dave 1st of Haughton (Loony) 217 (0.5%) New

DAWN'S TREBLE CAR CRASH

Labour's Dawn Butler was involved in a disastrous gaffe last night following the head-to-head debate and a further two car crash interviews today.  Speaking after the debate last night she mistakenly endorsed Boris Johnson, much to the amusement of Priti Patel who was standing next to her (watch below).


This morning Butler was interviewed by an increasingly exasperated Dan Walker on BBC Breakfast, in which she was pushed on Labour's bizarre Brexit policy.  Following that she gave a radio interview to LBC's Nick Ferrari in which she got her homelessness figures horribly wrong (watch below).


Nick delved further into Butler's dodgy figures after the interview and found that last year the Greater London Authority estimated there were actually just 248 rough sleepers in the London Borough of Brent.  That's a long way off 3,000.

Greater London Authority homeless estimate (2018)

We're almost thankful that Dawn Butler has a safe seat, hopefully she will be on Labour's hapless front bench for a long time to come.

Brent Central candidates 2019

Dawn Butler (Lab)
David Brescia (Con)
Deborah Unger (Lib Dem)
William Relton (Green)

Brent Central general election 2017

Dawn Butler (Lab) 38,208 (73.1%) +10.9%
Rahoul Bhansali (Con) 10,211 (19.5%) -0.8%
Anton Georgiou (Lib Dem) 2,519 (4.8%) -3.6%
Shaka Lish (Green) 802 (1.5%) -2.6%
Janice North (UKIP) 556 (1.1%) -2.9%

RILEY'S CORBYN T-SHIRT

Many viewers will have noted that Jeremy Corbyn's ultra-cool demeanour on last night's TV debate changed when anti-Semitism was brought up.  There was some laughter among the audience during his nonsensical answer, adding to his discomfort.  One Jew who was taking no nonsense from Corbyn yesterday was Countdown presenter Rachel Riley.  She was photographed wearing a satirical t-shirt echoing the left's slogan 'Israel is a racist endeavour'.  The word 'Israel' was replaced with 'Jeremy Corbyn'.  Quality.


Tuesday, 19 November 2019

BOZZA V JEZZA LIVE UPDATES

21:17

Blimey, YouGov got this one out quick!


20:57

That's it then.  Can't call it either way.  It was all rather tame.  Don't think this debate will have swayed many, if any, voters.

20:54

Big plus for Corbyn was he spoke to the camera without referring to notes.  Boris looking down every few seconds was very off putting.

20:51

Corbyn's face when asked who his favourite foreign leader is.  His mind working overtime - "Don't say Maduro, don't say Maduro"

20:50

Some heckling there for Jezza from somewhere.

20:49

Good call from Corbyn there about the victims.  However, his party was part and parcel of the grooming gang scandal.  Shhh...

20:48

Corbyn's getting animated.  Does he sense that the debate is running away from him?

20:46

"Magic money forest" - a cracking sideswipe from Boris against Corbyn there.

20:44

Corbyn says Labour will end austerity.  The next government would have to bring it back in order to repair the damage done by a Labour government.

20:42

Beautifully put question from the Welsh lady there.

20:39

The Liam Byrne letter is a good shot, should have brought a copy though Boris.

20:37

The NHS has been in trouble for decades, Labour threw money at it for 13 years and got nowhere.

20:35


20:33

Not sure what Corbyn was trying to say at the end there, but no hesitation from Boris on the handshake.  This will play well with viewers.  At half-time it's fairly even, but Jezza wobbled a bit at the end, could put Boris ahead by a whisker.  Impressed with Jezza's calm demeanour up to that point.

20:30

First interruption and it's from Corbyn.  Suddenly he's looking more uncomfortable than Boris.

20:28

Corbyn was threatening to come back into this, but then the host mentioned anti-Semitism.

20:26

What is with Corbyn's spectacles?

20:22

At this point Boris should bring up the fact that Corbyn would be quite happy to see a border down the Irish Sea - he wants a united Ireland.

20:20

Corbyn refusing to answer another question, won't come across well to viewers.

20:18

Some good body blows from Boris on IndyRef2.

20:16

Corbyn says he hopes the Union won't be broken, but he is going to sanction IndyRef2 in order to sneak into Downing Street on the back of an SNP coalition.

20:14

Corbyn says Labour's Brexit policy is "very clear" - audience breaks out into laughter.

20:10

Good stuff from Boris, but please get it across that Labour's fake referendum won't have Leave as an option.

20:07

People don't want to hear anyone say "we will leave on such a date".  Heard it all before.

20:04

Confident opening statement from Corbyn.  Full of bull though.

19:45