COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.07.26

We had a county-wide election this week, but it wasn't for the council.  The position of Police and Crime Commissioner in Norfolk was up for grabs...

Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner

Colin Sutton (Ref) 32,647 (26.7%) New

Matthew Taylor (Con) 18,348 (15.0%) -18.9%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 16,907 (13.8%) -2.0%

Marcus Pearcey (Ind) 16,402 (13.4%) New

Beth Jones (Lab) 14,192 (11.6%) -23.6%

Mark Buckton (Res) 13,319 (10.9%) New

Christopher Brown (LDm) 10,499 (8.6%) -6.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Labour won this election in 2024, with a relatively narrow victory over the Conservatives.  This time the result wasn't even close and Labour crashed to fifth.  Police and Crime Commissioners are being abolished in two years time, with the responsibilities being transferred into the remit of elected mayors.  This announcement last year led to a backlash from Norfolk's PCC, who quit Labour in anguish, accusing the government of a 'lack of consultation'.  She continued in the role as an independent, before vacating the post last month due to a family illness.  She also left her role as a district councillor (see below).  There were a few new faces on the PCC ballot paper this time, all stumping up £500 for the privilege.  All four parties saved their deposits last time, as it proved this time around - every single candidate surpassed the required five per cent mark in order to get their deposit back.  This included Restore Britain, who were hoping for a decent result as Rupert Lowe's constituency falls entirely within the catchment area.  Any hopes they may have had of denting Reform's chances were not realised, as Reform won with an impressive majority of 14,299 (compared to Labour's 1,888 majority in 2024).  Reform's first ever PCC is highly respected former detective Colin Sutton, who led various high profile murder investigations during a long career.  This has been a costly election to the taxpayer, with a bill of £2million that on a 17.1 per cent turnout worked out at more than £16 per vote!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

There were also eight council seats to be decided this week, all of which fell inside England and all but one sit across a central belt from Staffordshire in the west to Norfolk in the east.  The only exception is a seat in the Rushmoor borough of Hampshire.

Dereham Toftwood, Breckland District Council

Con: 458 (45.8%) -1.7%

Ref: 369 (36.9%) New

Lab: 172 (17.2%) -35.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who simultaneously vacated her post as Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner (see above).  This ward was a straight head-to-head last time between Labour and the Conservatives.  Reform had won all three of the previous council by-elections held in Breckland, but their Turkish candidate could not persuade enough voters in this semi-rural ward to swing it for her party.  She did however enjoy a huge swing from Labour that dumped the incumbent party in last place and delivered a Conservatives gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Ramsey & Bury, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 506 (29.7%) -17.3%

Ind: 417 (24.5%) New

Con: 412 (24.2%) -5.2%

LDm: 126 (7.4%) +0.6%

Grn: 123 (7.2%) +1.2%

Lab: 118 (6.9%) -4.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform gained this seat from the Conservatives in last year's local elections, but the winner recently stood down, citing 'personal circumstances'.  Last year's defeated Conservative sought to get her former seat back at this by-election, but slipped to third place.  She was narrowly beaten by an independent, who took a significant swing from Reform.  Labour finished third here last year, but collect the wooden spoon this time around.  No Burnham bounce here!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Kidlington West, Cherwell District Council

LDm: 1,028 (58.8%) +13.7%

Ref: 331 (18.9%) -4.3%

Con: 232 (13.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 158 (9.0%) -5.4%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem incumbent, who gained this seat from the Conservatives in 2021.  She resigned for 'personal reasons', primarily to spend more time with her family.  The Lib Dems were very keen to hold here, as their coalition majority hung by a thread.  They did so with ease, garnering three times as many votes as second placed Reform, while their coalition partners the Greens picked up the wooden spoon.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Old Catton, Norfolk County Council

Con: 973 (34.6%) +8.5%

Grn: 921 (32.7%) +14.0%

Ref: 561 (19.9%) -10.1%

Lab: 147 (5.2%) -10.6%

LDm: 100 (3.6%) -5.6%

Res: 98 (3.5%) New

Loon: 13 (0.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent less than four weeks after he was elected in May, citing 'poor health'.  Did he not expect to win?  A very poor show that left his colleague with what turned out to be an insurmountable task of holding the seat.  The former Conservative councillor selected by Reform was heavily defeated by her old party, while the Greens pushed her into third.  This was the first ever local election fought in the name of Restore Britain, but it was disastrous.  Their candidate pulled out shortly after the nomination papers were handed in, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.  It's not going well is it, Rupert?

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Grn: 664 (41.2%) +3.4%

Ref: 479 (29.7%) +2.9%

Lab: 213 (13.2%) +3.7%

Con: 208 (12.9%) -3.2%

LDm: 37 (2.3%) New

YrP: 11 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

As often tends to be the case with the Banana Republic of Peterborough, this by-election was mired in controversy before a single vote had been cast.  Triggered by the resignation of a young native lady who was elected as a Labour councillor in the 2024 elections, she quit the party a year later after accusing her comrades of 'sustained bullying and marginalisation'.  Why was she targeted?  She simply called for CCTV to be installed in the city's taxis.  This led to her facing accusations of 'racism' from Muslim comrades, who also tarred her family with the same brush.  In resigning her seat recently, she accused the council of 'systemic cover-ups', which Labour's Muslim council leader denied.  As Peterborough wards go, this one is not overtly Muslim, but it did opt for the Greens in May.  An independent candidate who stood here in that election dropped out, while there was a rare outing for the Fruit and Nutters.  The Corbyn shitshow finished last with just 11 votes, while the party that stole their far left thunder roared into the lead and garnered more than three times the number of votes received by Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Wellington, Rushmoor Borough Council

Lab: 408 (42.1%) +9.2%

Con: 199 (20.5%) -3.0%

Ref: 196 (20.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 118 (12.2%) New

LDm: 49 (5.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The retirement of the Labour incumbent triggered this contest.  He had served as a Rushmoor councillor on and off since 1976 and his successor scored an impressive hold for a party that is not used to expanding their vote share and moving further ahead of their rivals.  An independent candidate who stood here in May did not stand this time.  This area was historically a Conservative stronghold, but this all changed in 2024 when Labour took control of the council and won the local Aldershot Westminster constituency for the first time in history.  Labour lost outright control of the council following several defections last year, but they remain the largest party and run it as a minority administration.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Himley & Swindon, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 298 (43.2%) -21.0%

Ref: 187 (27.1%) New

Ind: 129 (18.7%) New

Lab: 28 (4.1%) New

Grn: 22 (3.2%) New

Ind: 16 (2.3%) -12.0%

LDm: 10 (1.4%) -20.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 82-year-old Tory incumbent, who had been council leader as recently as 2024.  He was re-elected to this ward in 2023, having bested the only two other candidates - a Lib Dem and an independent.  It was a much more crowded ballot paper this time and the votes were dispersed very thinly in this sparsely populated ward on the edge of the Black Country.  The Conservatives managed to hold off Reform by more than 100 votes.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Manor, Stafford Borough Council

Lab: 481 (36.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 414 (31.2%) New

Con: 237 (17.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 197 (14.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

As with the previous seat, this was triggered by the death of the 82-year-old incumbent.  The longstanding councillor had been re-elected most recently in 2023, when she topped the poll with both ward seats up for grabs.  She and her Labour colleague easily saw off the Conservatives, while a solitary Green candidate collected the wooden spoon.  The Greens finished last again this time, while there was a significant swing from both Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Richey has extended his lead further, with Karl suffering another poor performance.  Karl has now dropped below the 50 per cent accuracy rate and at best can only close the gap next week as there are only five by-elections.

MEME MONDAY #90

Another fairly quiet week as we await the coronation of Burnham.  Distribution was significantly down, which could be due to any number of factors - summer, football, disillusion, the algorithm as set by left-wing technocrats in Dublin and so on.

Mon 29 Jun - 134 shares

Tue 30 Jun - 68 shares

Tue 30 Jun - 49 shares

Thu 2 Jul - 46 shares

Thu 2 Jul - 55 shares

Fri 3 Jul - 229 shares

Sat 4 Jul - 33 shares

Sun 5 Jul - 3 shares

Sun 5 Jul - 41 shares

Karl didn't produce any Facebook Stories the previous week, but he more than made up for it last week with a record eight editions - six of which are part of his ongoing 'Diversity Is Strength' series.  He also added a new Welsh design, featuring Comrade ap Iorwerth, who is very much a subscriber to the cultural Marxist doctrine.  How exactly the Boat People are going to strengthen the Welsh language and Welsh culture is anyone's guess!

You can help us create more content by purchasing a couple of metaphorical pints here or by donating via PayPal.  This helps fund our campaign and serves as a vital morale booster.  We can't do this without your support.

Thank you.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 26.03.26

It was two Tory defences and one each for Labour and the Lib Dems in Thursday's four contests.  We predicted a trio of gains for Reform, but in actual fact it was the Conservatives who emerged with three seats.  However, on closer inspection the results were not exactly inspiring for Kemi Badenoch.  Her party's share of the vote plummeted by around 20 percentage points in all but one of the four seats, mustering a meagre 2.5 per cent increase to take a Lib Dem seat in Oxfordshire.

That seat in the Vale of White Horse was a hard one to call, but we predicted that Reform's presence would eat into the Tory vote enough to hand them a sensational gain in an overwhelmingly middle class battleground.  In fact, what happened was Reform took a significant swing from the Lib Dems and helped deliver the seat to the Conservatives.  This marked a return for the Tories to a council that has been dominated by Lib Dems and Greens in recent years.  Perhaps we should now keep an eye out for the Vale of White Horse's solitary Tory councillor, judging by Lee Evans' sinister number of votes!

In Sevenoaks, Kent, we thought Reform would decide that seat as well - potentially gifting it to the Lib Dems, but more likely winning it outright.  Instead, the Lib Dem vote went down and Reform took second place as the Tories held on, despite dropping more than 20 percentage points.

Having wrongly predicted two Reform gains, we finally hit some form in the two Lincolnshire seats.  The two vacancies had arisen through the deaths of long-standing Lab-Con incumbents.  In Axholme Central ward, we correctly forecast a Conservative hold, while in Brumby we felt that Reform may have too much for Labour.  Labour's vote there collapsed by more than 33 per cent, allowing Reform to storm ahead from scratch with more than half of the vote.

Labour's vote also collapsed in the other Lincolnshire seat, by more than 25 per cent, and they finished last in the Vale of White Horse with just 13 votes.  The Greens didn't exactly set the results on fire, mustering a couple of third places and collecting the wooden spoon in Kent.

Brumby, North Lincolnshire Council

Ref: 769 (52.3%) New

Lab: 410 (27.9%) -33.6%

Grn: 133 (9.1%) +4.2%

Con: 110 (7.5%) -21.9%

LDm: 37 (3.2%) -1.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Axholme Central, North Lincolnshire Council

Con: 928 (49.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 668 (35.5%) New

Grn: 157 (8.3%) New

Lab: 103 (5.5%) -25.7%

LDm: 28 (1.5%) New

Con HOLD

Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount, Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 561 (44.2%) -20.7%

Ref: 378 (29.8%) New

LDm: 266 (20.9%) -14.2%

Grn: 58 (5.1%) New

Con HOLD

Stanford, Vale of White Horse District Council

Con: 666 (45.9%) +2.5%

LDm: 395 (27.2%) -17.0%

Ref: 261 (18.0%) New

Grn: 115 (7.9%) -4.5%

Lab: 13 (1.0%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.03.26

Five seats were contested on Thursday, with this week's round being very much about the Lib Dems.  The party were defending three seats, all of which became vacant after the incumbents resigned.  Despite the resignations, we predicted three holds for the party.  Well, two out of three's not bad as the song goes.

The Lib Dems held in Cumbria and the Cotswolds, the latter featuring a particularly humiliating result for Labour who finished last with just seven votes.  Their third seat went to the Greens, who surged to victory in a middle class Liverpool suburb.  However, it was a mixed week for the new insurgents on the left.  

The swanky surroundings of Abingdon in Oxfordshire was the scene of another battle between the Lib Dems and Greens.  The Greens had won this seat previously when two seats were up for grabs, with the Lib Dems narrowly topping the poll.  The Greens would have fancied this one with all the media hype surrounding them.  However, as we predicted, the Lib Dems took the seat.  The Greens did not compete much beyond the two woke middle class seats, with finishes of 4/5, 4/7 and 3/4.

Finally, a local independent group slipped to defeat in Lincolnshire, a Reform gain as we predicted.  

Following last week's atrocious round of predictions - one out of five - we have returned to form this week with a more respectable four out of five.  Trumpet blown!

The Beeches, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 390 (52.7%) -3.0%

Ref: 168 (22.7%) New

Con: 122 (16.5%) -17.9%

Grn: 53 (7.2%) -3.0%

Lab: 7 (0.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Aigburth, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 782 (45.0%) +31.1%

LDm: 637 (36.7%) -13.6%

Lab: 177 (10.2%) -21.7%

Ref: 121 (7.0%) New

Ind: 12 (0.7%) New

Con: 8 (0.5%) -1.8%

Grn GAIN from LDm

Sleaford Westholme, North Kesteven District Council

Ref: 243 (45.1%) New

Ind: 87 (16.1%) -13.4%

Con: 81 (15.0%) New

Grn: 55 (10.2%) New

Ind: 49 (9.1%) -20.2%

Ind: 12 (2.2%) New

LDm: 12 (2.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Abingdon Abbey Northcourt, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 647 (43.7%) +3.3%

Grn: 480 (32.5%) -2.1%

Ref: 204 (13.8%) New

Con: 101 (6.8%) -7.3%

Lab: 47 (3.2%) -7.7%

LDm GAIN from Grn

Penrith South, Westmorland and Furness Council

LDm: 749 (43.1%) -1.5%

Ref: 588 (33.9%) New

Grn: 225 (13.0%) +2.6%

Con: 174 (10.0%) -15.5%

LDm HOLD

"NAB THE BASTARDS"

Cllr Susanna Pressel hates British flags

The left have some sinister priorities when it comes to policing.  This was exemplified recently by a Labour councillor in Oxford, who made it abundantly clear that she would like her local plod to target people who commit the heinous 'crime' of hanging flags from lamp posts!  In leaked audio from an internal council meeting, Cllr Susanna Pressel asks if police can trace the culprits through social media or, failing that, lie in wait and 'nab the bastards'.  "That's the sort of thing I would like to see from the police", she added.

She went on to describe flags placed outside the council building as 'appalling'.

Of course she was referring to her own national flags, which only the left appear to find abhorrent.  One wonders if she would feel the same way if local Muslims were erecting Pakistani or Palestinian flags?  Highly doubtful.  Oxford was the base for some of the most appalling Muslim rape gangs and with key members of one gang released early last year, there is little doubt that such activity is ongoing.  Cllr Pressel has served on the council for a whopping 32 years, during which time it's a safe bet she has not asked the police to 'lie in wait' for the gang rapists.

What about street theft and burglaries?  Violent crime?  All three categories are on the rise in Oxford, but Cllr Pressel thinks police time should be dedicated to 'catching' people erecting British flags on British streets.

Listen to her outburst below.

There has been a very fitting response to Cllr Pressel's remarks, very similar to that which met football commentator Gary Neville's own denunciation of the colours.  Activists have erected flags in the street where she lives!

If Pressel had any sense, she would have toned down the rhetoric after that, but instead she has complained that her neighbours are 'incensed'.  What she actually means is that she is incensed, as her intolerance to the flags is already well known.  Not all of her neighbours will share that hatred towards this country and our flag - if any at all.

She added: "I also hear complaints from a very large number of people who find the flags intimidating and, in fact, racist".  A very large number of people, or just one or two comments on social media?  The bottom of a barrel can be heard being scraped.  The only people who could possibly regard our own national flag 'racist' are treacherous leftist buffoons like Pressel.

Oxfordshire County Council has reportedly somehow spent £15,000 removing flags from lamp posts up to this point.  That is a colossal waste of taxpayers' money that could easily have been saved by simply leaving the flags where they are.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.11.25

Just the five seats were contested on Thursday, with Labour absent among the defending parties.  We expected at least three of these to be holds, with Reform UK a potential gain in Lincolnshire and the Lib Dems a possible upset in North Somerset.  Reform did indeed take the East Lindsey seat from the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems went in completely the wrong direction and crashed to fourth in North Somerset, where the Greens held easily.

It was a good week for the Greens, who also bested the Lib Dems in Canterbury, where they dislodged the incumbents.  They did not impress so much in leafy Oxfordshire, whey they entered as newcomers in lowly fourth place.

Labour stood in four of the five seats, finishing last in two and fourth elsewhere.  In Oxfordshire they could only muster a pathetic eight votes.

Wincheap, Canterbury City Council

Grn: 842 (39.1%) +24.1%

LDm: 518 (24.1%) -12.2%

Ref: 351 (16.3%) New

Lab: 276 (12.8%) -25.5%

Con: 166 (7.7%) -2.6%

Grn GAIN from LDm

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey District Council

Ref: 586 (65.8%) New

Con: 139 (15.6%) -20.7%

Ind: 60 (6.7%) New

Lab: 48 (5.4%) -27.7%

LDm: 42 (4.7%) New

Ind: 15 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Bethel a'r Felinheli, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Pld: 659 (59.2%) -25.0%

Ind: 369 (33.2%) New 

Ref: 76 (6.8%) New 

Con: 9 (0.8%) New

Pld HOLD

Long Ashton, North Somerset Council

Grn: 1,254 (55.7%) +25.1%

Con: 399 (17.7%) -7.2%

Ref: 349 (15.5%) New

LDm: 129 (5.7%) -28.8%

Lab: 121 (5.4%) -4.5%

Grn HOLD

Ridgeway, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 442 (43.1%) -14.9%

Con: 250 (24.4%) -17.6%

Ref: 204 (19.9%) New

Grn: 144 (11.9%) New

Lab: 8 (0.8%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.07.25

Ten seats were up for election this week, all in England.  Labour were defending two seats and lost both to Reform, who also gained a seat from independents in Gloucestershire.  Labour's vote share was down in all seven seats it contested, ranging from a 4.6 per cent decrease in Surrey, to 27.8 per cent in Nottinghamshire.  The party finished last in two seats.

Elsewhere, there was no change as the Lib Dems held all four of its seats and the Greens successfully defended a seat in East Sussex, fending off Reform by 50 votes.

Ranskill, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 323 (52.7%) New

Lab: 89 (15.7%) -27.8%

Con: 66 (14.5%) -42.0%

Ind: 44 (7.2%) New

LDm: 40 (6.5%) New

Grn: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Ref: 595 (48.7%) +32.5%

Lab: 475 (38.8%) -23.7%

Grn: 62 (5.1%) New

Con: 59 (4.8%) -16.6%

LDm: 32 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Isle of Wight Council

Ind: 475 (48.1%) New

Ref: 225 (22.9%) New

Con: 153 (15.6%) -4.7%

LDm: 53 (5.4%) New

Vec: 46 (4.7%) New

Lab: 33 (3.4%) -8.9%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Bookham East & Eastwick Park, Mole Valley District Council

LDm: 1,056 (56.0%) -6.6%

Ref: 387 (20.5%) New

Con: 386 (20.5%) -10.1%

Grn: 56 (3.0%) -1.5%

LDm HOLD

Keppel, Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,160 (40.3%) New

Ind: 801 (27.8%) -1.9%

Lab: 558 (19.4%) -13.4%

Con: 105 (3.6%) -6.9%

Yrk: 100 (3.5%) -7.8%

LDm: 80 (2.8%) -1.4%

Grn: 77 (2.7%) -7.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Woking South, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,939 (63.8%) +5.8%

Ref: 584 (19.2%) New

Con: 291 (9.6%) -16.0%

Grn: 134 (4.4%) -2.5%

Lab: 91 (3.0%) -4.6%

LDm HOLD

Northway, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ref: 374 (41.4%) New

LDm: 279 (30.9%) +7.0%

Con: 116 (12.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 91 (10.1%) New

Lab: 44 (4.9%) -15.8%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Botley & Sunningwell, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 732 (71.5%) +7.9%

Con: 162 (15.8%) -1.8%

Grn: 130 (12.7%) +11.2%

LDm HOLD

Horam & Punnetts Town, Wealden District Council

Grn: 611 (35.9%) -29.0%

Ref: 561 (32.9%) New

Con: 336 (20.2%) -15.0%

Ind: 188 (11.0%) New

Grn HOLD

Hoe Valley, Woking Borough Council

LDm: 1,118 (63.3%) -8.1%

Ref: 379 (21.1%) New

Con: 130 (7.2%) -9.0%

Lab: 83 (3.8%) -8.6%

Grn: 69 (4.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Vec = Vectis

Yrk = Yorkshire

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

RESPITE FOR REFORM?

Farage and Yusuf unveil almost 30 new councillors

The very public mudslinging that has wracked Reform UK in recent weeks won't go away, but Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf hoped to get the fledgling party back on track with a major announcement on Monday.  The pair announced 29 council defections to Reform from other parties or having previously been independents or members of local residents' groups.  26 of the new members were in attendance at the press conference.

Some of the defections actually occurred up to a month ago, such as the defections of Conservatives Kirk Harrison, Joanne Monk and Stephen Reed, who announced their defections weeks ago.  Clearly, Monday's event was intended as a distraction from the rumblings within.

Of the defections, 15 were Conservatives, 12 were independents or from local residents' groups (two of which had previously been Conservatives) and one each came from Labour and the Lib Dems.  Most of the new Reformers are county councillors.

These are the new Reform councillors that Farage named...

• Cllr Heather Asker, Uttlesford District Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Atkinson, Ribble Valley Borough Council (was Conservative and leader of the council)
• Cllr Bill Barrett, Ashford Borough Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Felix Bloomfield, Oxfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Mandy Clare, Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council (was Labour, reportedly left in opposition to trans ideology)
• Cllr Stuart Davies, North Somerset Council (was independent)
• Cllr Emma Ellison, Blackpool Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Paul Ellison, Wyre Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Robert Gibson, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Kirk Harrison, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Manzur Hasan, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Cathy Hunt, Durham County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Paul Irwin, Buckinghamshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Claire Jonson-Wood, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Reg Kain, Cheshire East Council (was Liberal Democrat)
• Cllr Edward Kirk, Wiltshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Karl Lewis, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Graham McAndrew, Hertfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Iain McIntosh, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Joanne Monk, Worcestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Geoff Morgan, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Jan O'Hara, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Christine Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Richard Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Reed, North East Derbyshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Dirk Ross, Kent County Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Matthew Salter, Lancashire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Vernon Smith, Gloucestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Thomas Sneath, South Holland District Council (was independent)

A further defection was announced in the form of Julian Kirk, who has resigned his seat on Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council in protest at delayed local elections.  He was an independent, having previously been a Conservative councillor.

These announcements came just as another existing Reform councillor quit the party, a member of East Riding Yorkshire Council.  Still, a big net gain for Farage with the news of such a large influx.

There was quite possibly more important news for Reform on Monday.  Convict MP Mike Amesbury has officially stood down as the member for Runcorn and Helsby, triggering the by-election we've all been waiting for.  This will be a huge indicator of Reform's electoral prowess and ability to shake off its recent troubles.  They remain odds on favourites with the bookies to win the Cheshire seat and those odds have now stabilised, having previously been drifting a little in response to the infighting.

There is no date for the Runcorn by-election as yet.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.12.24

In this week's round of by-elections there were mixed results for Labour, with an overall net loss of one seat.  They defended a safe seat in Cardiff, albeit their vote share plummeted by more than 30 points.  They lost a seat in Berkshire to the Conservatives and also a seat to the SNP in Stirling.  However, they also gained a seat from the SNP in Glasgow.

Splott, Cardiff City Council

Lab: 717 (34.4%) -31.1%

Grn: 362 (17.3%) +3.6%

Ppl: 305 (14.6%) +11.2%

LDm: 292 (14.0%) +8.6%

Ref: 271 (13.0%) New

Pld: 88 (4.2%) New

Con: 60 (2.9%) -5.9%

Lab HOLD

Kilgrimol, Fylde Borough Council

Con: 340 (46.1%) +9.4%

Ref: 204 (27.6%) New

LDm: 108 (14.6%) New

Lab: 86 (11.7%) -11.6%

Con GAIN from Ind

Partick East/Kelvindale, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,723 (37.5%) +5.3%

SNP: 1,062 (23.1%) -5.2%

Grn: 837 (18.2%) -2.7%

Con: 632 (13.8%) +0.4%

LDm: 339 (7.4%) +3.6%

Lab GAIN from SNP (elected stage 4)

Cholsey, South Oxfordshire District Council

LDm: 949 (62.2%) +16.1%

Con: 362 (23.7%) +0.9%

SDP: 116 (7.6%) +2.3%

Lab: 71 (4.7%) New

Ind: 28 (1.8%) New

LDm HOLD

Stirling East, Stirling Council

(First preference votes)

SNP: 650 (34.6%) +2.9%

Lab: 480 (25.5%) +2.2%

Ref: 265 (14.1%) New

Con: 230 (12.2%) -11.1%

Ind: 106 (5.6%) -2.9%

Grn: 95 (5.1%) +0.4%

LDm: 55 (2.9%) +0.4%

SNP GAIN from Lab (elected stage 7)

Shinfield, Wokingham Borough Council

Con: 765 (49.0%) +10.4%

Lab: 387 (24.8%) -18.9%

LDm: 336 (21.5%) +3.8%

Grn: 73 (4.7%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ppl = Propel

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Ref = Reform UK

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Con = Conservative

SNP = Scottish National Party

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 14.11.24

A dozen seats were up for election on Thursday, with Labour defending nine of them.  Two of those fell - both to the Lib Dems - and in both instances (Edinburgh and Oxfordshire) Labour crashed to third place.  Labour's vote share was down in all the seats it contested, except for two seats in Ayrshire.

Colinton & Fairmilehead, City of Edinburgh Council

(First preference votes)

LDm: 2,683 (36.3%) +23.8%

Con: 1,454 (19.6%) -10.3%

Lab: 1,441 (19.5%) -13.9%

SNP: 800 (10.8%) -6.4%

Grn: 393 (5.3%) -0.1%

Ref: 268 (3.6%) New

Ind: 173 (2.3%) New

Ind: 57 (0.8%) New

SFP: 51 (0.7%) -0.9%

Ind: 50 (0.7%) New

Ind: 22 (0.3%) New

SLP: 9 (0.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab (elected stage TBC)

Calver & Longstone, Derbyshire Dales District Council

Con: 290 (47.6%) +2.2%

Grn: 263 (43.2%) -11.4%

Lab: 56 (9.2%) New

Con GAIN from Grn

Doon Valley, East Ayrshire Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 516 (32.4%) +9.1%

Con: 410 (25.6%) +8.9%

SNP: 379 (23.7%) +2.9%

Ind: 172 (10.7%) New

LDm: 68 (4.2%) New

Grn: 48 (3.0%) New

Ind: 9 (0.6%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage TBC)

Kilmarnock West & Crosshouse, East Ayrshire Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,213 (39.4%) +11.1%

SNP: 1,025 (33.3%) -5.1%

Con: 623 (20.2%) -1.8%

LDm: 145 (4.7%) New

Ind: 75 (2.4%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage TBC)

Shooters Hill, Greenwich London Borough Council

Lab: 1,043 (57.9%) -1.6%

Con: 237 (13.2%) -0.8%

Grn: 185 (10.3%) -4.8%

Ref: 179 (9.9%) +7.1%

LDm: 158 (8.8%) +0.1%

Lab HOLD

Bradwell, Milton Keynes City Council

LDm: 1,129 (56.1%) +2.3%

Lab: 329 (16.3%) -8.6%

Ref: 228 (11.3%) New

Con: 226 (11.2%) -2.5%

Grn: 101 (5.0%) -2.5%

LDm HOLD

Broughton, Milton Keynes City Council

LDm: 1,169 (51.5%) +5.6%

Con: 541 (23.8%) -2.2%

Lab: 360 (15.9%) -5.5%

Grn: 138 (6.1%) +1.2%

Hrt: 61 (2.7%) +0.9%

LDm HOLD

Wanstead Park, Redbridge London Borough Council

Lab: 934 (46.9%) -5.5%

Con: 349 (17.5%) -1.5%

Ind: 284 (14.2%) New

Grn: 222 (11.1%) -7.5%

LDm: 109 (5.5%) -4.6%

Ref: 95 (4.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Hadley & Leegomery, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 778 (45.3%) -11.8%

Con: 539 (31.4%) +16.7%

Ref: 274 (15.9%) New

Grn: 75 (4.4%) -3.1%

LDm: 53 (3.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The Nedge, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 636 (33.8%) -20.6%

Con: 620 (33.0%) +7.0%

Ref: 427 (22.7%)  New

Grn: 84 (4.5%) New

Ind: 61 (3.2%) -6.6%

LDm: 53 (2.8%) -7.0%

Lab HOLD

Whitburn & Blackburn, West Lothian Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,093 (30.9%) -6.7%

SNP: 1,022 (28.9%) -9.8%

Ref: 578 (16.3%) New

Ind: 421 (11.9%) New

Con: 239 (6.7%) -11.7%

LDm: 97 (2.7%) +0.3%

Grn: 92 (2.6%) -0.5%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire District Council

LDm: 403 (31.3%) +24.6%

Con: 383 (29.7%) +9.0%

Lab: 350 (27.2%) -34.2%

Grn: 152 (11.8%) +0.5%

LDm GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

SNP = Scottish National Party

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independents

WOKE WEDNESDAYS #6

The pretty Oxfordshire market town of Abingdon-on-Thames seems like a place you would expect to be free of the cosmopolitan middle class bullshit of PC wokery.  Well, thanks to a middle class cosmopolitan university lecturer who got wind of a 'controversial' pub name, said pub is now changing its name!

Dr Erin Pritchard is a 'disability lecturer' at Liverpool Hope University, which is 180 miles away from sleepy Abingdon.  As a dwarf, Dr Pritchard has made it her life's mission to hunt down 'offensive' terms that she claims are offensive to the wee folk.  In 2022 she successfully managed to persuade Marks and Spencer to rename their 'midget gems' to 'mini gems', because she claimed that the word 'midget' is a form of 'hate speech'.  Tesco, Morrisons, Maynards and other retailers soon followed suit, simply out of fear for not being deemed progressive enough by the cancel mob.

Dr Pritchard's X feed is basically a long list of her attempts to cleanse the English speaking world of the word 'midget'.  So when she found out that there was a pub in Oxfordshire called The Midget, she swung into action and started a petition demanding that the brewery change the name.  That the pub is actually named after a classic sports car that was produced in the town's former MG factory, thereby reflecting a piece of local heritage, is anathema to the frothy-mouthed lunatic from Liverpool.

Despite the fact that her online petition only garnered a somewhat paltry 1,344 signatures after ten months, the brewery caved in and the pub will be renamed The Roaring Raindrop when it reopens next month following refurbishment.  The new name refers to another MG model, made famous in 1957 when it broke the land speed record driven by British racing legend Stirling Moss.

Since the news of the name change broke, angry locals have begun their own online petition in opposition to the change.  This new petition garnered more than twice that of Pritchard's in just a matter of days and at the time of writing is approaching 3,000 signatures.  However, it is unlikely to provoke a change of heart from Greene King, as we know only too well that the communist speech police of cosmopolitan middle class suburbia hold more sway than disgruntled local people who actually live there and use these amenities...

Following her most recent victory, we can surely now expect Pritchard to expand her campaign against Abingdon's motoring heritage by demanding that place names be changed, too.  The Midget pub, for example, is located in Midget Place.

We know that the Marxist left who like to police speech are no different from the book burning Nazi socialists they claim to oppose.  Dr Pritchard's own intolerance is perhaps best exemplified by the image on the front of her book about dwarfism.  It is the depiction of a circus tent in flames.  So, rather like the woke dwarf actor Peter Dinklage - who decried a Hollywood remake of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs - Dr Pritchard is only too happy to deprive other dwarves of employment, save that she may be offended on their behalf!

Last week's DEI football meme generated 81 comments and 50 shares on Facebook.

CLARKSON: ANYONE, BUT LABOUR

Jeremy Clarkson hit out at Labour last month in his column for The Sun, in which he declared them lacking a 'single redeeming feature'.  In his article he explored his conundrum as to who he should vote for in the looming election.  He dedicated a sentence or two to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform, gave very little positive feedback on the Tories, before laying into Labour and failing to endorse any of them.

Clarkson appeals to certain demographics in Britain, one of which is certainly those of us who the left racially abuse as 'gammon'.  Middle class conservatives are at ease with Clarkson, his affluent lifestyle and politically incorrect views are a comfort to them in a world where the left police speech.  We at BTLP have always regarded him and his Top Gear chums as a safety valve for the Beeb, a vehicle for which they can still draw in conservative-minded viewers and claim to be 'balanced'.

Clarkson himself tries to maintain a balance when it comes to his political views.  More often than not, he has promoted conservative and libertarian values, but he also continues to defend a totalitarian European Union and even endorsed Keir Starmer's Labour back in 2020.  His latest article turns that endorsement on its head, while at the same time he joins the Labour leader in his favoured spot seated on top of the fence.  The full article is reprinted below.

Like almost every normal person in Britain, I’m struggling to work out which way I should vote in the forthcoming election.

Here in the Cotswolds, many houses are festooned with Lib Dem posters, and I can see why.

They’ve promised to take us back into Europe and, as a Remainer, I can see the appeal of that.

But then we have Reform, and the fact is that when Lee Anderson opens his mouth on TikTok, I often find myself nodding quietly and thinking: "Well, he does have a point."

So what about the Greens?  Sure, they have some absolutely mad policies on most things, but they do say, and this appeals to me, that they would like cleaner rivers and better soil.

The Tories?  Tricky one this.  For the past few years they’ve been pretty much useless.

Cowed by a fear of social media into a state of near paralysis, they’ve steered us into a world where the trains, the roads, the airports, the NHS and border control just don’t work any more.

And Mr Rishi leaving the D-Day events in France was incomprehensible.

But their heart’s in the right place on taxes and economic stability, and that’s important.

So now we arrive at the Labour Party, and I’m sorry, but I cannot find a single redeeming feature.

In the entire campaign so far, not a single candidate has said one word that I agree with.

They want open borders, zero growth and everyone living in a bucket of shame because their great great grandad once bought a hairbrush that had possibly been made by slaves.

Their manifesto contains just 87 words on farming. Which, when translated into English basically say: “We hate you, you meat-eating rural halfwits.”

It’s even been suggested that inheritance tax will have to be paid on farm land.

Which means that in about 20 years’ time, there will be no farm land.

And therefore no food, apart from in all the town-centre, nuclear-free, South African peace stores, where you will be able to buy sustainable tofu.

I get, of course, that people are fed up with the Tories, but I’d rather vote for my dog than Sir Starmer’s merry bunch of ideological nincompoops.

Half of them don’t know what a woman is, and now it transpires Starmer himself can’t even define the working class.

He thinks it has something to do with people who work.  But King Charles works, you idiot.

Working class is a state of mind.  It’s a community spirit.  It has nothing to do with whether you work or not.

What I hate most of all about Labour, though, is that they believe that if you work hard all your life and make some savings to tide you over in your old age, those savings are theirs.

And that they should be given to people who haven’t worked at all.

Which is why, come polling day, I’m praying there’s a box on the ballot paper which says: "Anyone but Labour."

Clarkson's Diddly Squat Farm is located in the Oxfordshire constituency of Banbury (previously Witney).  As we are currently meting out our predictions for various constituencies this Thursday, it is perhaps an apt moment to lend our forecast for Banbury (and Witney).

The latest boundary review finds Clarkson's farm, south of the small Cotswold town of Chipping Norton, transferred from Witney to Banbury this time around.  Both constituencies are traditionally Tory seats.  Banbury has returned a Conservative MP since 1922, Witney since its creation in 1983, albeit the latter did have a Labour MP briefly when Tory MP Shaun Woodward crossed the floor to Labour in 1999.  The Tories took the seat back in 2001 with a candidate by the name of David Cameron...

The future PM rebuilt the Tory majority in Witney from an all-time low of 7,028 in 1997.  By 2015 he had more than quadrupled it to 25,155, but that was its peak.  The best it would get after that was 21,241 in 2017 and it currently stands at 15,177.

The Tory majority in Banbury also had to be rebuilt after 1997 and currently stands at 16,813.  Both sitting Tory MPs believe they can hold these seats, but can they?

It's a crowded field in Banbury with both the Greens and Climate Party standing, as well as Reform and the SDP (despite a supposed deal that they would not go head to head).  Banbury is very tricky to call as it looks set to be a tight three-way battle between the Tories, Lib-Dems and Labour.

Banbury candidates 2024

Liz Adams (LDem)

Arron Baker (Grn)

Cassi Bellingham (Ind)

Chris Nevile (Clim)

Victoria Prentis (Con)

Declan Soper (SDP)

Paul Topley (RefUK)

Sean Woodcock (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Seven candidates are competing in Witney, including a rare outing for David Kurten's Heritage Party.  This will be a straight fight between the Tories and Lib Dems.

Witney candidates 2024

Robert Courts (Con)

David Cox (Herit)

Barry Ingleton  (Ind)

Richard Langridge (RefUK)

Charles Maynard (LDem)

Andrew Prosser (Grn)

Antonio Weiss (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.09.22

Eight seats were up for grabs this week up and down the mainland.  In Scotland there was a free-for-all on the west coast following the death of an independent.  Another independent surged to victory, overtaking the SNP and defeating them all the way to the final stage.  Labour were eliminated on first preference votes, finishing a humiliating last place with just 55 votes.  Scotland uses a different voting method to the rest of the UK - the single transferable vote in which voters rank the candidates in order of preference.

In England and Wales there were holds for the Lib Dems (three seats), the Conservatives (two), Labour and Plaid (one each).  The only change of hands was a Labour gain from the Conservatives in Nottinghamshire where a head-to-head battle dramatically turned on its head in favour of red.

There were no absentees in this week's by-elections.  If the opinion polls are to be believed then there will be no need for a 'progressive alliance' at the next election.  Labour are a shoo-in, apparently.  However, while the Tory vote was down in seven of eight of this week's by-elections, Labour's vote was down in five.  The electorate are clearly still not sure about the wooden man of no policies.

Kintyre & the Islands, Argyll and Bute Council

(First preference votes)

Ind: 591 (32.7%) +16.3%

SNP: 525 (29.1%) -0.8%

LDem: 265 (14.7%) -1.7%

Con: 194 (10.7%) +1.2%

Grn: 176 (9.7%) New

Lab: 55 (3.0%) -1.2%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 6)

Logan, Harborough District Council

LDem: 582 (45.7%) +2.7%

Con: 382 (30.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 250 (19.6%) +8.6%

Ind: 60 (4.7%) -8.7%

LDem HOLD

Edwinstowe & Clipstone, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Lab: 804 (59.8%) +10.0%

Con: 540 (40.2%) -10.0%

Lab GAIN from Con

Hinksey Park, Oxford City Council

Lab: 801 (51.3%) -4.7%

Grn: 305 (19.5%) +5.9%

Ind: 270 (17.3%) +3.2%

LDem: 118 (7.6%) -3.2%

Con: 60 (3.8%) -1.8%

TUSC: 8 (0.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Ynysybwl, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Plaid: 435 (59.0%) +3.5%

Lab: 246 (33.4%) -1.2%

Con: 34 (4.6%) New

Gwlad: 14 (1.9%) -8.0%

Grn: 8 (1.1%) New

Plaid HOLD

Facit & Shawforth, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 337 (43.5%) -16.7%

Ind: 214 (27.6%) +27.6%

Lab: 203 (26.2%) -13.5%

Grn: 20 (2.6%) New

Con HOLD

Helmshore, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 736 (50.6%) -11.3%

Lab: 540 (37.1%) -1.0%

Grn: 74 (5.1%) New

LDem: 62 (4.3%) New

Ind: 42 (2.9%) New

Con HOLD

Grappenhall, Warrington Borough Council

(two seats)

LDem: 1,073

LDem: 1,047

Con: 524

Con: 462

Lab: 193

Grn: 135

LDem HOLD x 2

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

LDem = Liberal Democrats

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Gwlad = Gwlad

Ind = Independents

COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER PRIVATE JAB

A councillor has had the Labour whip removed after she boasted of receiving a Covid vaccination privately.  Cllr Jamila Azad posted several photos on her Facebook page showing herself receiving the jab alongside a young woman who is thought to be her daughter.  Private jabs for coronavirus are currently illegal in the UK.

The post has since been deleted, but not before it was screen-captured and distributed online.

Cllr Azad serves on both Oxford City Council and Oxfordshire County Council.  The Labour groups leaders on both those councils released the following statement: "Following a recent post on her Facebook account about her Covid-19 vaccination, Councillor Jamila Azad has been suspended by the whips of both the Oxfordshire County Council and Oxford City Council Labour groups, pending further investigation".

'BURN EVERY TORY MP' SAYS COUNCILLOR

A Labour councillor has apologised for two tweets he posted last weekend in which he expressed a desire to burn Oxford University to the ground with every Tory MP inside it (see below).

Cllr Owen Collins was elected to West Oxfordshire District Council in May.  On his Twitter profile Collins describes himself as a "socialist" and "feminist", but since the furore over his tweets he has deleted them and locked down his account.  He has now released a statement regarding the tweets:  "Recent tweets of mine contained thoughtless, and obviously flippant, comments, the content and tone of which I regret.  With that in mind, I have deleted the tweets in question and I sincerely apologise to anyone who has been offended by them".

Quite why it's taken him several days to rethink his words is anyone's guess, but perhaps it is linked to the fact his own council group leader has reported him to Labour HQ?

Cllr Owen Collins celebrates his election in May 2019