COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.10.26

Six council seats were filled on Thursday, including a twin defence for the Tories and one each for Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform.  Nottinghamshire was a key battleground, with three seats available.

Labour stood in all five of the contests south of the border, with mixed results.  The Burnham bounce was evident in the Black Country and Cheshire, less so in Nottinghamshire.  They lost a seat to Reform, but gained one from the same party - albeit by the slender margin of two votes.  The downturn of the Greens continued, with the party collecting a wooden spoon in all four of the by-elections it fought.

There was much better news for Reform, who had been flagging of late with no wins or holds in six weeks going into this round.  There was bitter disappointment in Dudley, where they lost a seat by two votes, but they unexpectedly gained two seats elsewhere.

Mid Argyll, Argyll and Bute Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 820 (46.1%) +14.9%

LDm: 310 (17.4%) +14.1%

Con: 230 (12.9%) +1.3%

Ref: 151 (8.5%) New

Res: 124 (7.0%) New

ISP: 95 (5.3%) +2.9%

Ind: 50 (2.8%) New

SNP GAIN (elected at stage 5)

Triggered by the death of the 64-year-old incumbent, who passed away following a long cancer battle.  He topped the poll on first preferences the last time this colossal ward was contested, back in 2022.  Mid Argyll is by no means the largest council ward in Britain, but at 323 square miles it is 30 times larger than the average council ward and larger than many council authorities, such as Birmingham.  Don't be surprised if this is the last result out of the bag on Friday.  The ballot paper was a busy affair here in 2022, with nine candidates in total - four of which were independents.  This Thursday there are seven candidates and just the one independent.  Labour also dropped out this time, having finished fourth in 2022 with 157 votes.  The downturn in candidates, in particular the 2022 winner, meant that all the parties increased their vote shares on Thursday.  The SNP won the seat with more than twice the vote of the second placed Lib Dems.  The sixth-placed party (ISP) are the seldom heard of Independence for Scotland Party.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Worksop East, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 600 (45.9%) New

Lab: 485 (37.1%) -34.4%

Res: 91 (7.0%) New

Con: 89 (6.8%) -21.7%

Grn: 42 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who is also the Member of Parliament for Bassetlaw and a government minister.  Jo White stood down as a councillor last month, citing conflicts of interest between her council role and her role as a Home Office minister.  She was appointed a minister by Burnham in July, having been elected to Westminster in the 2024 general election.  Bassetlaw has been under Labour control since 2011, but there haven't been a round of elections here since 2023 when Labour won all three seats in this ward in a head-to-head against the Conservatives.  Reform had won the last four by-elections in Bassetlaw and sensationally made it five in a row on Thursday.  A shocking result for the Uniparty, more so considering that Restore Britain also entered the contest and it did not result in a Labour hold.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

St James's, Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 874 (38.0%) +16.2%

Ref: 872 (37.9%) -11.0%

Con: 317 (13.8%) -0.1%

Res: 159 (6.9%) New

Grn: 79 (3.4%) -7.2%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, after just four months in office.  He resigned due to a combination of 'personal and health-related' reasons, having easily unseated Labour in May with a majority of 903.  However, it was the Tories who suffered the most at the hands of Reform in Dudley, losing outright control of the council in that election.  They have continued in office as a minority administration.  The losing Labour candidate in this central ward managed to regain her seat on Thursday after a nail-biting recount and the wafer thin margin of just two votes.  Many will look to a swing from Reform to Restore as yet another example of a split vote on the right gifting victory to Labour.  Two parties did not stand on Thursday - the Lib Dems (fourth in May with 130 votes) and the Trade Unionist Socialist Coalition (last with 30 votes).

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Beechwood & Heath, Halton Borough Council

Ref: 750 (35.3%) -4.2%

LDm: 559 (26.3%) -18.3%

Lab: 535 (25.2%) New

Res: 134 (6.3%) New

Ind: 90 (4.2%) New

Con: 56 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in her late 70s.  She had served on the council continuously since 1997.  She had last been re-elected in 2024, when Labour were runners-up.  The most recent election here was back in May this year, when Labour did not stand and Reform surged into second spot behind her Lib Dem colleague.  This suburban Runcorn ward was one of the few seats that Reform did not win at that election.  They demolished Labour, but as only a third of seats were being filled, Labour maintained control of the council.  Despite dropping slightly, both in terms of votes and vote share, Reform overtook the Lib Dems to win the seat.  The absence of the Greens (third in May with 356 votes) and the Libertarian Party (last with 69 votes) did not help the Lib Dems.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Dover Beck, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Con: 409 (41.7%) -29.5%

Ref: 328 (33.5%) New

Lab: 148 (15.1%) -13.7%

LDm: 73 (7.4%) New

Grn: 22 (2.2%) New

Con HOLD

Thursday's second Notts contest was triggered by the death of the 70-year-old incumbent, following a lengthy cancer battle.  He had served on the council since 2003, also serving concurrently on Nottinghamshire County Council since 2013 (triggering a separate by-election, see below).  This rural ward was last contested in 2023, when the Tories emerged victorious in a head-to-head against Labour, receiving more than twice the Labour vote.  The Conservatives lost control of the council in 2023 to no overall control and it has been run since by a chaotic minority coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and independents.  There will be a full election here next May, despite plans to abolish the council in 2028 and absorb it into a new unitary authority for Nottinghamshire.  Thursday's result saw a big swing from the Conservatives to Reform, but the defending party hung on.  This ward falls in the Sherwood Forest constituency, a major target seat for Reform at the next general election, currently held by Labour's Michelle Welsh.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Southwell, Nottinghamshire County Council

Con: 2,019 (45.3%) +7.8%

Ref: 1,159 (26.0%) +1.8%

Lab: 646 (14.5%) +1.1%

LDm: 545 (12.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 88 (2.0%) -3.2%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was serving concurrently on Newark and Sherwood Council and triggered a separate by-election there (see above).  Notts County Council was also previously held by the Conservatives, but a colossal shift to Reform in the 2025 local elections gave control to Farage's party.  Reform gained a whopping 39 seats in that election, 19 of which were gains from the Conservatives.  Most of these gains were in the north and west of the county, with Southwell lying to the east and remaining firmly in Tory hands.  The Conservatives extended their lead here on Thursday, which will be of some concern to local MP Robert Jenrick, having jumped the Uniparty ship for Reform.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

The one differential in their head-to-head predictions proved pivotal for Karl, who beat Richey by a single point to draw level overall.  It was the fifth consecutive week that Karl has beaten Richey.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.09.26

It's four vacancies again this week, including a Nottinghamshire seat filled on the somewhat unorthodox polling day of Tuesday.

It was a bad week for the Greens as they lost two seats to the Uniparty, slumping to a distant third in one and getting smashed by more than a thousand votes in the other.  With the big Holborn and St Pancras Westminster by-election in a few weeks, the bubble is bursting at the wrong time for Zack's crazy gang.

An impressive gain from the Greens asides, it was not a stunning week for Labour.  However, they have still improved their performance from the bad old Starmer days, when double digit slumps in vote share were common place.

Wreake Valley, Charnwood Borough Council

Con: 1,091 (48.2%) +8.0%

Ref: 706 (31.2%) New

Grn: 372 (16.4%) -34.3%

Lab: 69 (3.1%) -6.0%

LDm: 24 (1.1%) New

Con GAIN from Grn

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, due to ongoing health issues and 'changes in her personal circumstances'.  She was elected in 2023, topping the poll in a clean sweep for the Greens as they took all three of this rural ward's seats following boundary changes.  It was an odd result on Thursday, with both the Tories and Reform pushing the hard left Greens into distant third.  There appeared to be a significant Green swing to Reform, but it was the Tories who topped the poll.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Walkley, Sheffield City Council

Lab: 2,315 (53.4%) +14.4%

Grn: 1,249 (28.8%) -11.2%

Ref: 541 (12.5%) -1.6%

LDm: 112 (2.6%) -0.2%

Con: 59 (1.4%) -0.7%

TUS: 56 (1.3%) +0.3%

Lab GAIN from Grn

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, just three months after he sensationally unseated the Labour council leader.  It was a close fought contest on May 7, with the Green candidate winning by a narrow margin of 73 votes.  However, it turned out to be another case of poor candidate selection on the part of the Greens.  The new councillor stood down citing pressure and stress, as a direct result of what he called the 'huge weight of expectation and obligation'.  Labour were looking to win the seat back from their Sheffield coalition partners and did so in style, smashing the Greens by over a thousand votes.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Avondale & Stonehouse, South Lanarkshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,025 (27.6%) -0.8%

Lab: 743 (20.0%) +0.2%

Ref: 727 (19.6%) New

Con: 393 (10.6%) -10.0%

Grn: 357 (8.2%) +1.8%

LDm: 357 (9.6%) New

Ind: 107 (2.9%) New

YrP: 45 (1.2%) New

ADF: 12 (0.3%) New

SNP GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 8)

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, following a lengthy illness.  She had been elected as a Labour councillor in 2012, but left the party shortly after being re-elected in 2017.  She was re-elected again in 2022, topping the poll on first preference votes.  The ballot paper will be a crowded affair this time, with no less than five newcomers.  There is no Alba candidate this time, with the party having folded earlier this year.  It was an SNP gain on the night, with many stages of voting required until there was a run-off against Labour at stage 8 (the council erroneously declared it stage 9, which is an error as there weren't enough candidates for nine rounds).  Corbyn's venture was propped up from the bottom by the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

East Markham, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 436 (49.6%) New

Con: 250 (28.4%) -37.6%

Lab: 151 (17.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 42 (4.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Tuesday's action was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, for undisclosed reasons.  The Conservatives have held this single seat rural ward for almost the entirety of its existence, although the outgoing councillor served less than one term.  He easily defeated second placed Labour in 2023, garnering more than three times their vote.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time as Reform swept the Tories aside for an impressive gain.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

It was a clean sweep for Richey this week as he pushed even further ahead of Karl after week 15 of the head to head.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.08.26

Four council seats were contested on Thursday, with two defences apiece for Reform and Labour.  It's more or less a dead heat between these two parties in the national polls and results were certainly mixed for both parties.  Reform suffered a net loss of one, while Labour flatlined with a loss, a gain and a hold.  Labour scored a 30.1 per cent average across the four wards, narrowly beating Reform's average of 29.6 per cent.  It is clear from this week's small sample size of results that Labour under Burnham are outperforming Starmer's regime, but they are far from indicative of a party that is set to win a general election outright.  Labour clung onto a seat in Nottingham with a dip in vote share of 33.8 per cent, which was largely down to voters switching to new options on the ballot paper like Reform and the Greens.  Labour also avoided a wooden spoon finish in Cambridgeshire by just two votes.

Penistone East, Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,728 (51.6%) +14.4%

Ref: 795 (23.8%) -6.7%

Con: 387 (11.6%) -7.6%

Res: 218 (6.5%) New

Ind: 87 (2.6%) New

LDm: 70 (2.1%) -3.6%

Grn: 59 (1.7%) -5.6%

Ind: 2 (0.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent after just eight weeks in the role.  She had been elected on May 7, but stood down due to unspecified 'personal reasons'.  Reform swept Labour aside in Barnsley that day, no mean feat considering the local authority had been in Labour hands for the entirety of its 52 year history.  Labour had maintained control in the 2024 elections with 48 seats, but were reduced to just 11 as the red wall town turned turqoise.  Penistone East resisted the Reform surge to a degree, with two of its three seats going to Labour (first and third).  With an impressive result on Thursday, all three of those seats are now red and the ward has lost its only Reform councillor.  Perhaps this is no great surprise given the circumstances of a resignation that cost local taxpayers a reported £35,000 to organise a by-election to replace her.  These rapid departures could get much worse for Reform after next May's elections, as most of their best people are now already councillors and at some point the barrel is going to be scraped.  Shout out to Restore Britain, who scored an impressive result here in a very rare local election outing, albeit once again failing to dent Reform's supremacy.  And spare a thought for that lowly independent candidate - just two votes!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Harraby South, Cumberland Council

Ref: 560 (46.2%) New

Lab: 469 (33.3%) -7.6%

Con: 236 (16.8%) -18.5%

Grn: 29 (2.1%) New

LDm: 23 (1.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Another by-election triggered by a resignation for unspecified 'personal reasons'.  The Labour incumbent won this seat in the inaugural Cumberland Council election of 2022.  This curiously named authority lends its name to an ancient county that ceased to exist in 1974 when it was replaced by the new entity of Cumbria.  While Cumbria still exists as the official county name, its county council was abolished and divided into two administrations for the 2022 election, one of which was Cumberland.  Labour won control of Cumberland with relative ease and were by far the largest party with 30 seats to the Conservatives' seven.  Labour have since lost five of those seats - through resignations and defections - and have now lost a sixth to Reform, who on Thursday surged into first place from scratch.  Interesting to note that Reform were not the only newcomers, but the Greens and Lib Dems could muster only 52 votes between them.  There was no independent candidate this time, having finished last in 2022 with 369 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Leen Valley, Nottingham City Council

Lab: 689 (30.5%) -33.8%

Ind: 523 (23.2%) New

Ref: 410 (18.2%) New

Grn: 378 (16.7%) New

Con: 189 (8.4%) -13.3%

LDm: 68 (3.0%) -11.0%

Lab HOLD

We're used to seeing Reform and Green novices disregard their duties, but this by-election was triggered by a lousy Labour councillor who failed to attend a single council meeting for more than six months.  Despite being warned in writing, the councillor did not respond and was automatically disqualified from office.  The hijab-wearing individual was elected in the 2023 election, but quit Labour six months later on account of Keir Starmer's position on Gaza.  She went on to serve for two and a half years as an independent.  Nottingham is about as red as it gets and we're not talking about the football team.  Labour have been in control here since 1991, and a split in their ranks last year did not seriously impact their majority.  Six councillors left to form the 'Nottingham People's Alliance' and they made Leen Valley their debut election.  It's fair to say they pushed Labour hard for victory, with Labour's majority crashing from almost a thousand votes to less than 200.  It was also an impressive new entry for Reform in a ward that has a huge Muslim population and a white minority of 42 per cent.  Despite these demographics, only Labour and the Nottingham People's Alliance fielded Muslim candidates.  It was therefore no great surprise to see these were the top two candidates as our country develops into an increasingly sectarian political landscape.  For the sake of consistency, the Nottingham People's Alliance are referred to in brackets as 'Independents', as per all localised groups.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

St Neots Eynesbury, Huntingdonshire District Council

LDm: 1,024 (47.9%) +29.8%

Ref: 647 (30.3%) +3.1%

Con: 143 (6.7%) -3.8%

Grn: 118 (5.5%) -12.5%

Lab: 104 (4.9%) New

Ind: 102 (4.8%) New

LDm GAIN from Ref

Another vacancy triggered by a departing Reform councillor, having only been elected seven weeks earlier.  In keeping with the secretive nature of this week's resignations, his decision was put down to those elusive 'personal reasons'.  There were three seats up for grabs here on May 7 and the incumbent topped the poll, with second place going to an independent and third place going to another Reform candidate.  Like Cumberland above, Huntingdonshire was an ancient English county that was also abolished in 1974.  It was incorporated into the county of Cambridgeshire and relegated to district status.  The Conservatives went on to control this new district between 1976 and 2022, when it fell into no overall control.  It is currently administered by a minority coalition of Lib Dems and independents.  The nature of the incumbents' rapid departure was always going to make this a tricky defence and so it proved to be, with Reform losing its second seat on the night.  The Lib Dems have a strong presence in these parts and it showed, with a huge surge.  Voters appear to be abandoning the Greens in ever greater numbers, but on this occasion they largely opted for the Lib Dems rather than reverting back to Labour.  The Labour candidate avoided a wooden spoon finish by the narrow margin of just two votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Richey led Karl by seven points going into week 12 and so it remains.  The pair had unusually diverged in their forecasts across the board, but merely cancelled each other out in a dead heat.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 04.12.25

Five seats were being contested on Thursday, following Tuesday's by-election in Derbyshire.  The Derbyshire vacancy arose through the resignation of one of last May's crop of Reform councillors.  Reform held the seat by a wafer thin majority of 23, with the second placed Tories having significantly closed the gap.

Reform took advantage of an even slimmer margin to take a Lib Dem seat in Middlesbrough, pipping the incumbents by just 13 votes.  Labour finished last here and the best they could muster on Thursday was a couple of fourth places.

Labour were on a proxy defence in Nottinghamshire, where the incumbent was elected as a Labour councillor before he left for the local independent group last January.  He passed away in August, sparking a by-election.  The Broxtowe Alliance to which he belonged easily held the seat, which was technically a gain from Labour.  Labour slumped from first to fourth.

We still await any solid evidence of the Green surge, who only managed to contest four of the six seats and couldn't achieve anything better than Labour's fourth place.  Still, that's better than anything achieved by the Fruit and Nuts of Sultana and Corbyn...

Stapleford South East, Broxtowe Borough Council

Ind: 388 (34.6%) New

Ref: 245 (21.9%) New

LDm: 149 (13.3%) -8.2%

Lab: 128 (11.4%) -14.7%

Con: 108 (9.6%) -9.5%

Ind: 102 (9.2%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Exmouth Halsdon, East Devon District Council

LDm: 551 (35.9%) -4.0%

Ref: 438 (28.5%) New

Con: 393 (25.6%) -4.1%

Grn: 153 (10.0%) New

LDm HOLD

Nunthorpe, Middlesbrough Borough Council

Ref: 563 (35.8%) New

LDm: 550 (35.0%) -1.3%

Con: 328 (20.9%) -14.2%

Grn: 79 (5.0%) New

Lab: 53 (3.3%) -6.7%

Ref GAIN from LDm

Winkleigh, Torridge District Council

LDm: 325 (42.3%) +8.7%

Ref: 252 (32.8%) New

Con: 191 (24.9%) -23.7%

LDm GAIN from Con

Tudor, Watford Borough Council

LDm: 821 (52.6%) +4.3%

Ref: 433 (27.2%) +17.8%

Con: 148 (9.3%) -10.5%

Lab: 111 (7.0%) -16.4%

Grn: 77 (4.8%) New

LDm HOLD

Long Eaton North, Derbyshire County Council

(held on Tuesday)

Ref: 745 (28.1%) -7.7%

Con: 722 (27.2%) +4.2%

Lab: 579 (21.8%) -2.7%

Grn: 314 (11.8%) +4.5%

LDm: 154 (5.8%) -3.6%

Ind: 141 (5.3%) New

Ref HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.11.25

Eight seats were contested on Thursday, including two notional defences for Labour that they were destined to lose.  Both of these seats had been won by the outgoing councillor, having finished second and picking up a seat by way of multi-vacancy elections.

In Scotland, this was achieved by Cllr David Graham, trailing in behind the SNP.  Graham was thrown out of office earlier this year when he was convicted and jailed for grooming and sexually abusing a 15-year-old girl.  The 43-year-old is now serving a sentence of two years and five months.  As expected, the SNP took the seat this time around, with Labour being pushed into third by Reform UK.

You'd be mistaken for thinking that Labour may have stood a better chance of holding in Derbyshire, where they previously trailed behind an independent.  Not so.  This had been a Tory seat up until 2021, but independents topped the last two polls.  We expected this to go either independent or Reform this time around, but it was no contest as the independent candidate romped home with more than twice the Reform vote.  Labour crashed into fourth place, behind the Conservatives.

Labour's vote share was down in all of the seats it contested on Thursday, and down by double digits in all but one.

It was another good week for Reform and the Lib Dems.  Reform either topped the polls or came second in all the seats it contested, gaining two from independents and one from the Conservatives.  The Lib Dems managed to gain two seats, one each from the Conservatives and Greens.  The latter could not even muster a candidate to defend their seat, making yet more mockery of the supposed 'Green surge' hyped up by the media.  The best the Greens could achieve this week was a third place finish in Nottinghamshire, in which only four candidates stood.

Buckhaven, Methil & Wemyss Villages, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,594 (42.6%) -4.8%

Ref: 1,080 (28.9%) New

Lab: 778 (20.8) -11.4%

LDm: 99 (2.6%) +0.3%

Alb: 83 (2.2%) +0.9%

Con: 64 (1.7%) -4.8%

Sov: 45 (1.2%) New

SNP GAIN from Lab (elected stage 6)

Fleckney, Harborough District Council

Ref: 551 (35.0%) New

LDm: 453 (28.7%) +2.1%

Con: 416 (26.4%) -6.0%

Grn: 102 (6.5%) -6.2%

Lab: 54 (3.4%) -11.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Balderton North & Coddington, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Ref: 545 (42.0%) New

Con: 480 (37.0%) +5.0%

Grn: 173 (13.3%) New

Lab: 101 (7.8%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Castle, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Ref: 204 (29.0%) New

Con: 193 (27.4%) -4.0%

Lab: 88 (12.5%) -21.3%

Ind: 74 (10.5%) New

LDm: 70 (9.9%) New

Grn: 61 (8.7%) New

Ind: 14 (2.0%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Seales, South Derbyshire District Council

Ind: 713 (55.7%) New

Ref: 309 (24.1%) New

Con: 105 (8.2%) -14.1%

Lab: 82 (6.4%) -20.0%

LDm: 72 (5.6%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Westway, Tandridge District Council

LDm: 539 (42.3%) -0.6%

Ref: 420 (33.0%) New

Con: 202 (15.9%) -13.3%

Lab: 112 (8.8%) -19.1%

LDm GAIN from Con

Lingfield,  Crowhurst & Tandridge, Tandridge District Council

Ind: 457 (38.0%) +3.2%

Ref: 329 (27.3%) New

Ind: 158 (13.1%) New

Con: 128 (10.6%) -1.3%

LDm: 90 (7.5%) -1.4%

Lab: 42 (3.5%) -13.4%

Ind HOLD

Okehampton South, West Devon Borough Council

LDm: 356 (57.1%) New

Con: 152 (24.4%) -5.9%

Ind: 116 (18.6%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

A further two by-elections were contested earlier in the week, taking place on the somewhat unorthodox day of Tuesday.  These were both Labour defences in Burnley, Lancashire.  The party lost both seats to independents and were pushed into distant third places by Reform in both seats.

Queensgate, Burnley Borough Council

Ind: 679 (55.7%) New

Ref: 240 (19.7%) New

Lab: 133 (10.9%) -9.1%

Grn: 71 (5.8%) New

Ind: 52 (4.3%) New

Con: 43 (3.5%) -7.2%

Ind GAIN from Lab

Lanehead, Burnley Borough Council

Ind: 706 (44.4%) New

Ref: 510 (32.1%) New

Lab: 262 (16.5%) -25.9%

Con: 61 (3.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 50 (3.1%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Alb = Alba

Con = Conservative

Sov = Sovereignty

Grn = Green

Ind = Independents and local residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 28.08.25

We have entered a quiet by-election spell with just two council seats available this week and one next week.  This week it was a Tory defence in Nottinghamshire and a Labour defence in their bourgeois heartland of north London.

The Tories held in Broxtowe, by the narrowest of margins over newcomers Reform - just five votes in it.  There was a big swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives.

In London, very close to Keir Starmer's own constituency, Labour were humiliated by the Lib Dems.  Labour finished a distant second with less than half the votes of the winning candidate.  West Hampstead's MP is Tulip Siddiq, a close friend of the Starmers and currently on trial in Bangladesh on corruption charges (in abstentia)...

Nuthall East & Strelley, Broxtowe Borough Council

Con: 405 (28.6%) -16.5%

Ref: 400 (28.3%) New

Ind: 275 (19.4%) New

Lab: 244 (17.2%) -20.1%

Grn: 71 (4.9%) -6.7%

Ind: 20 (1.5%) New

Con HOLD

West Hampstead, Camden London Borough Council

LDm: 1,176 (54.4%) +15.4%

Lab: 458 (21.2%) -23.4%

Con: 222 (10.3%) -6.3%

Ref: 155 (7.2%) New

Grn: 152 (7.0%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.07.25

Ten seats were up for election this week, all in England.  Labour were defending two seats and lost both to Reform, who also gained a seat from independents in Gloucestershire.  Labour's vote share was down in all seven seats it contested, ranging from a 4.6 per cent decrease in Surrey, to 27.8 per cent in Nottinghamshire.  The party finished last in two seats.

Elsewhere, there was no change as the Lib Dems held all four of its seats and the Greens successfully defended a seat in East Sussex, fending off Reform by 50 votes.

Ranskill, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 323 (52.7%) New

Lab: 89 (15.7%) -27.8%

Con: 66 (14.5%) -42.0%

Ind: 44 (7.2%) New

LDm: 40 (6.5%) New

Grn: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Ref: 595 (48.7%) +32.5%

Lab: 475 (38.8%) -23.7%

Grn: 62 (5.1%) New

Con: 59 (4.8%) -16.6%

LDm: 32 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Isle of Wight Council

Ind: 475 (48.1%) New

Ref: 225 (22.9%) New

Con: 153 (15.6%) -4.7%

LDm: 53 (5.4%) New

Vec: 46 (4.7%) New

Lab: 33 (3.4%) -8.9%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Bookham East & Eastwick Park, Mole Valley District Council

LDm: 1,056 (56.0%) -6.6%

Ref: 387 (20.5%) New

Con: 386 (20.5%) -10.1%

Grn: 56 (3.0%) -1.5%

LDm HOLD

Keppel, Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,160 (40.3%) New

Ind: 801 (27.8%) -1.9%

Lab: 558 (19.4%) -13.4%

Con: 105 (3.6%) -6.9%

Yrk: 100 (3.5%) -7.8%

LDm: 80 (2.8%) -1.4%

Grn: 77 (2.7%) -7.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Woking South, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,939 (63.8%) +5.8%

Ref: 584 (19.2%) New

Con: 291 (9.6%) -16.0%

Grn: 134 (4.4%) -2.5%

Lab: 91 (3.0%) -4.6%

LDm HOLD

Northway, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ref: 374 (41.4%) New

LDm: 279 (30.9%) +7.0%

Con: 116 (12.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 91 (10.1%) New

Lab: 44 (4.9%) -15.8%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Botley & Sunningwell, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 732 (71.5%) +7.9%

Con: 162 (15.8%) -1.8%

Grn: 130 (12.7%) +11.2%

LDm HOLD

Horam & Punnetts Town, Wealden District Council

Grn: 611 (35.9%) -29.0%

Ref: 561 (32.9%) New

Con: 336 (20.2%) -15.0%

Ind: 188 (11.0%) New

Grn HOLD

Hoe Valley, Woking Borough Council

LDm: 1,118 (63.3%) -8.1%

Ref: 379 (21.1%) New

Con: 130 (7.2%) -9.0%

Lab: 83 (3.8%) -8.6%

Grn: 69 (4.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Vec = Vectis

Yrk = Yorkshire

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 03.07.25

Nine by-elections were held this week, including two on Wednesday.  Labour were defending both of the Wednesday contests and fell to Reform in one, while holding off a Reform surge in the other.

On Thursday there was a gain each for the Lib Dems, Reform and Tories, plus an independent.  Reform were defending seats for the first time and lost both.  It seems that voters are not too happy when they are asked to go to the polls again just two months after they elected these councillors.  In one of those seats Reform slipped to third place behind Labour, who saw a marginal increase in vote share.  Reform  lost their other seat to the Conservatives by the narrowest margin of just eight votes.

In a somewhat merry-go-round of gains and losses, the Tories lost a seat to Reform in Suffolk, while Reform narrowly missed out on a gain in mid Wales.  The Lib Dems held them off by just six votes.

Killingworth, North Tyneside Metropolitan Borough Council

(held on Wednesday)

Ref: 771 (38.5%) New

Lab: 639 (31.9%) -22.7%

Con: 441 (21.4%) -3.5%

Grn: 85 (4.2%) -16.3%

LDm: 81 (4.0%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Longbenton & Benton, North Tyneside Metropolitan Borough Council

(held on Wednesday)

Lab: 739 (39.6%) -16.8%

Ref: 602 (32.3%) +19.3%

Grn: 259 (13.9%) -7.8%

LDm: 183 (9.8%) New

Con: 83 (4.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Mendip, Bath and North East Somerset Council

LDm: 496 (57.1%) -18.2%

Ref: 191 (22.0%) New

Con: 84 (9.7%) +6.7%

Grn: 57 (6.6%) +2.0%

Lab: 40 (4.6%) +0.9%

LDm HOLD

Benfieldside, Durham County Council

LDm: 824 (28.3%) +17.3%

Lab: 800 (27.4%) +0.8%

Ref: 747 (25.6%) -6.6%

Ind: 459 (15.7%) -8.0%

Con: 76 (1.6%) -5.0%

Grn: 40 (1.4%) New

LDm GAIN from Ref

Calverton, Gedling Borough Council

Ind: 1,245 (66.3%) New

Ref: 337 (17.9%) New

Lab: 150 (8.0%) -20.6%

Con: 117 (6.2%) -44.1%

Grn: 21 (1.1%) New

LDm: 8 (0.4%) New

Ind GAIN from Con

Fulham Town, Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council

Con: 647 (43.3%) -1.7%

LDm: 345 (23.1%) -4.5%

Lab: 251 (16.8%) -10.6%

Ref: 187 (12.5%) New

Grn: 63 (4.2%) New

Con HOLD

Newark West, Nottinghamshire County Council

Con: 680 (34.7%) +4.8%

Ref: 672 (34.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 316 (16.1%) -3.9%

Grn: 190 (9.7%) +2.1%

LDm: 90 (4.6%) -1.9%

SDP: 11 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Llanidloes, Powys County Council

LDm: 557 (35.5%) +5.2%

Ref: 551 (35.1%) New

Pld: 225 (14.3%) +1.9%

Con: 118 (7.5%) -7.7%

Lab: 112 (7.1%) -4.8%

Ind: 6 (0.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Tower, Suffolk County Council

Ref: 1,332 (28.8%) New

Grn: 1,155 (25.0%) -4.5%

Con: 808 (17.5%) -16.2%

Lab: 667 (14.4%) -6.4%

Ind: 407 (8.8%) New

LDm: 269 (5.6%) +1.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.06.25

Seven council seats are up for grabs this week, with polling day falling on a Wednesday in Gloucestershire.  The other four contests took place on the traditional Thursday, including double vacancies in both Northamptonshire and Nottinghamshire.

Labour were defending two seats this week, losing both of them.  They lost to the Greens in Gloucestershire, slumping to a humiliating fourth place with a big swing to Reform.  They also lost a seat to Reform in Nottinghamshire, where two seats had been vacant.

Elsewhere, Reform continued to perform exceptionally well, taking seats from an independent group in Leeds and the other Nottinghamshire seat from the Tories.  They would probably have also won two new seats in Northamptonshire, except for some bizarre reason they fielded too many candidates.  Three Reform candidates appeared on the ballot paper, but there were only two vacancies!

Severn, Stroud District Council

(held on Wednesday)

Grn: 439 (27.8%) +10.0%

Con: 425 (26.9%) -6.6%

Ref: 421 (26.7%) New

Lab: 177 (11.2%) -21.3%

LDm: 112 (7.1%) -9.1%

UKIP: 5 (0.3%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Morley South, Leeds City Council

Ref: 2,119 (36.8%) +29.8%

Ind: 1,415  (25.2%) -12.9%

LDm: 1,009 (17,5%) +15.9%

Lab: 634 (11.0%) -20.3%

Grn: 314 (5.4%) -3.5%

Con: 230 (4.0%) -5.6%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden, Mid Suffolk District Council

Grn: 901 (64.1%) -11.4%

Con: 444 (31.6%) +7.1%

LDm: 61 (4.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Higham Ferrers, North Northamptonshire Council

(two seats, new boundaries)

Ref: 656, 556 & 335 (27.5%)

Con: 559 & 511 (23.4%)

Grn: 529 & 449 (22.2%)

Lab: 264 & 256 (11.1%)

Ind: 215 & 187 (9.0%)

LDm: 165 (6.9%)

Ref WIN x 1

Con WIN x 1

Mansfield North, Nottinghamshire County Council

(two seats)

Ref: 3,077 & 2,998 (59.3%) +57.5%

Lab: 1,259 & 1,211 (24.3%) -5.7%

Con: 500 & 426 (9.6%) -37.7%

Grn: 292 (5.6%) +2.8%

TUS: 62 & 39 (1.2%) +0.4%

Ref GAIN x 2 (1 from Con, 1 from Lab)

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL RESULTS

23 council authorities held elections on Thursday, the vast majority of them county councils.  Labour were defending just one - the City of Doncaster - which they lost to Reform with a huge swing.  Ed Miliband and the rest of the local Labour MPs are likely to be toast based on these results, although a lot can change in four years.

The astonishing level of support for Reform meant that zero councils at the start of the day turned into ten by the end of it.  Eight of those gains came from the Conservatives, who had an exceptionally torrid day, losing control of every single council they were defending.  While Reform had an overall net gain of 677 council seats, the Tories had a net loss of 676.  It's no coincidence that these two figures are so close.  Reform are not just a threat to Labour, they are demolishing the Conservatives as well.

The only other party that won control of any councils on Thursday was the Lib Dems, who gained three in total.

The results are as follows.  The figures provided are the total number of council seats won per party and the difference in brackets from previous local elections.

Buckinghamshire County Council

Con: 46 (-31)

LDm: 27 (+19)

Ind: 13 (+6)

Lab: 5 (+1)

Ref: 3 (+3)

Grn: 3 (+2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Cambridgeshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+11)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Con: 10 (-18)

Lab: 5 (-4)

Grn: 3 (+3)

Ind: 2 (-2)

LDm GAIN from NOC

City of Doncaster Council

Ref: 37 (+37)

Lab: 12 (-28)

Con: 6 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Lab

Cornwall Council

Ref: 28 (+28)

LDm: 26 (+13)

Ind: 16 (n/c)

Con: 7 (-40)

Lab: 4 (-1)

Grn: 3 (+2)

MebK: 3 (-2)

NOC HOLD

Derbyshire County Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 12 (-33)

LDm: 3 (-1)

Lab: 3 (-11)

Ind: 2 (+2)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Devon County Council

LDm: 27 (+18)

Ref: 18 (+18)

Con: 7 (-32)

Grn: 6 (+4)

Ind: 2 (-1)

Lab: 0 (-7)

NOC GAIN from Con

Durham County Council

Ref: 65 (+65)

LDm: 14 (+1)

Ind: 12 (-14)

Lab: 4 (-38)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Con: 1 (-15)

Ref GAIN from NOC

Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 27 (+11)

Ref: 11 (+11)

Grn: 9 (+5)

Con: 6 (-24)

Ind: 1 (+1)

Lab: 1 (-4)

NOC HOLD

Hertfordshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+8)

Con: 22 (-24)

Ref: 14 (+14)

Grn: 5 (+4)

Lab: 5 (-2)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

Kent County Council

Ref: 57 (+57)

LDm: 12 (+6)

Grn: 5 (+1)

Con: 5 (-57)

Lab: 2 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-1)

RA: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Lancashire County Council

Ref: 53 (+53)

Ind: 9 (+9)

Con: 8 (-40)

Lab: 5 (-27)

LDm: 5 (+3)

Grn: 4 (+2)

Ref GAIN from Con

Leicestershire County Council

Ref: 25 (+25)

Con: 15 (-27)

LDm: 11 (+2)

Lab: 2 (-2)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (+1)

NOC GAIN from Con

Lincolnshire County Council

Ref: 44 (+44)

Con: 14 (-40)

LDm: 5 (+2)

Ind: 4 (-5)

Lab: 3 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

North Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 39 (+39)

Con: 13 (-37)

Grn: 8 (+5)

Lab: 4 (-8)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

LDm: 1 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Northumberland County Council

Con: 26 (-10)

Ref: 23 (+23)

Lab: 8 (-12)

Ind: 7 (-1)

LDm: 3 (n/c)

Grn 2 (n/c)

NOC HOLD

Nottinghamshire County Council

Ref: 40 (+40)

Con: 17 (-19)

Lab: 4 (-10)

Ind: 2 (-1)

RA: 1 (-9)

LDm: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Oxfordshire County Council

LDm: 36 (+12)

Lab: 12 (-3)

Con: 10 (-15)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Ind: 2 (+1)

Ref: 1 (+1)

RA: 1 (n/c)

LDm GAIN from NOC

Shropshire County Council

LDm: 42 (+29)

Ref: 16 (+16)

Con: 7 (-38)

Grn: 4 (n/c)

Lab: 4 (-5)

Ind: 1 (-2)

LDm GAIN from Con

Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 49 (+49)

Con: 10 (-46)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

Lab: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Con

Warwickshire County Council

Ref: 23 (+23)

LDm: 14 (+9)

Con: 9 (-33)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Lab: 3 (-3)

RA: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

West Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 17 (-35)

Lab: 9 (-9)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Ref GAIN from Con

Wiltshire County Council

LDm: 43 (+16)

Con: 37 (-24)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Ind: 7 (n/c)

Lab: 1 (-2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Worcestershire County Council

Ref: 27 (+27)

Con: 12 (-33)

Grn: 8 (+5)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Lab: 2 (-1)

NOC GAIN from Con

LABOUR'S NOTTS WOES

Labour lost control of a borough council last week after 20 of its 26 councillors sensationally ditched the party and set up its own - the Broxtowe Independents.  The party immediately replaced Labour as the largest party on Broxtowe Borough Council, which shifts to no overall control.  Existing council leader Milan Radulovic will continue in his role, but no longer under the Labour banner.  The Conservatives remain the opposition party with 10 councillors.

The Labour councillors quit the party in protest at the national leadership, with particular grievance being felt towards the scrapping of the winter fuel allowance for millions of pensioners.  This appears to have been the tipping point, with existing tensions already present over candidate selections and a row about access to a bank account that had been used to fund a community hub.  The hub ended up having to close, with the Broxtowe Labour group claiming that their own party had barred them from using funds from the account.

The mass resignation from Labour also had a knock on effect for the county council.  Labour had been the joint opposition on Nottinghamshire County Council, but one of its departing Broxtowe councillors was also a county councillor, meaning that Labour slip into third place there also.  Up to that point they had formed an equal joint opposition alongside the Nottinghamshire County Independence Group.

A statement from the now dramatically reduced Broxtowe Labour group played down the resignations, as if only three or four had quit:  "It is incredibly disappointing that some Broxtowe councillors have decided to leave the Labour Party and sit as independents when they were elected on a Labour ticket just over 18 months ago.  These defections have no effect on the commitment of the remaining Labour councillors in serving our residents."

No effect?  Your party no longer controls the council!

With Labour now third and its national popularity in free fall, the Tories will be eyeing up Broxtowe for a gain.  Labour and the Conservatives have competed for control of the Nottinghamshire authority for decades, with Labour having only regained control in 2023.  For almost half of its 51 years, Broxowe has been held by the Tories, thanks largely to the fact they held it for 21 years from its inception in 1974.  It then passed directly into Labour hands, before spending 12 years in no overall control.  The Tories took it back in 2015 and it fell back into no overall control four years later.

There are no local elections scheduled for Broxtowe until 2027, meaning Labour look set to be the third party for the foreseeable future.

Council leader Milan Radulovic (front) launches the Broxtowe Independents

WOKE WEDNESDAYS #3

Nottingham Building Society was founded by a Quaker in 1849 and has used local legend Robin Hood as part of its branding since the 1980s.  Not any more.  He has fallen victim to the globalist DEI agenda.

The Nottingham has decided to drop Robin from its logo because he is not 'inclusive'.  You see, a major organisation cannot possibly associate itself with a white male heterosexual in this woke day and age - even one who appears to be the perfect companion for a communist agenda, namely one who takes from the bourgeoisie and redistributes their wealth to the proletariat.

Race trumps ideology in this instance and Robin has been binned in favour of a black squiggle, which appears to be a black bow that forms the vague shape of a letter 'N'.  What does the bow represent?  No idea, but a black bow usually represents mourning.  Perhaps it is their final 'fuck you' to hordes of customers who are miffed, confused and angry with the rebrand.

Like so many businesses and organisations, the furore and resulting losses appear to be an acceptable cost in order to push the communist agenda favoured by globalists.

Last week's climate meme generated 115 comments and 48 shares on Facebook.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 19.09.24

There were eight seats up for grabs on Thursday, plus one contest held on Monday.  With the exception of Huntingdonshire, where Labour were newcomers, the Labour vote share was down in all the other seats.  They lost four seats in total, three to the Conservatives and one to the Lib Dems.  They held three others, despite huge swings to the Lib Dems in Cornwall, Reform in Hartlepool and a combination of the Greens and Workers Party in Westminster.

The Tories were defending three seats, two of which were successfully held in Hartlepool, while they lost to an independent in Huntingdonshire.

Sidemoor, Bromsgrove District Council

LDem: 276 (52.6%) +24.9%

Con: 141 (26.9%) +3.1%

Lab: 87 (16.6%) -29.2%

Grn: 21 (4.0%) New

LDem GAIN from Lab

Falmouth Penwerris, Cornwall County Council

Lab: 337 (44.7%) -19.8%

LDem: 228 (30.2%) +25.5%

Grn: 189 (25.1%) +16.6%

Lab HOLD

Burn Valley, Hartlepool Borough Council

Lab: 475 (47.5%) -21.5%

Ref: 399 (39.9%) +23.9%

LDem: 89 (8.9%) New

Grn: 36 (3.6%) New

Lab HOLD

St Neots Eatons, Huntingdonshire District Council

Ind: 531 (32.7%) New

LDem: 426 (26.2%) +2.3%

Con: 420 (25.9%) -5.4%

Ind: 125 (7.7%) New

Lab: 77 (4.7%) New

Grn: 45 (2.8%) -8.7%

Ind GAIN from Con

Harrow Road, Westminster City Council

Lab: 512 (44.2%) -27.5%

Grn: 244 (21.1%) New

WPB: 166 (14.3%) New

Con: 162 (14.0%) -3.9%

LDem: 63 (5.4%) -4.9%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Lab HOLD

West End, Westminster City Council

Con: 627 (48.8%) +8.5%

Lab: 489 (38.1%) -10.5%

Grn: 94 (7.3%) New

LDem: 74 (5.8%) -5.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fairfield, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council (two seats)

Con (2): 1,291 & 1,181 (54.2%) +12.0%

Lab (2): 528 & 496 (22.2%) -4.4%

Ref (2): 344 & 304 (14.5%) +6.4%

Ind: 110 (4.6%) New

Grn: 62 (2.6%) New

LDem (2): 45 & 43 (1.9%) New

Con HOLD (two seats)

Marine, Worthing Borough Council

Con: 865 (40.7%) +7.9%

Lab: 781 (36.8%) -16.0%

Ref: 228 (10.7%) New

Grn: 138 (6.5%) -2.7%

LDem: 113 (5.3%) +0.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Bestwood St Albans, Gedling Borough Council (held on Monday)

Con: 358 (47.8%) +16.3%

Lab: 300 (40.1%) -12.3%

LDem: 91 (12.1%) +6.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.11.22

Five seats were up for grabs in this week's council action.  On the unusual polling day of Wednesday, the Ashfield Independents held easily.  The following day it was a routine hold for Labour in Sefton, while there were three Conservative defences.  The Tories lost a seat each to Labour (Bassetlaw) and the Lib Dems (Isle of Wight).  They held their other defence by the wafer thin majority of three votes.

Absentees this week were UKIP in Ashfield, the Conservatives in Sefton and an independent in Warrington.

Hucknall Central, Ashfield District Council

Ind: 710 (54.5%) +17.9%

Lab: 397 (30.5%) +0.8%

Con: 195 (15.0%) -3.9%

Ind HOLD

Sutton, Bassetlaw District Council

Lab: 301 (56.1%) +35.8%

Con: 224 (41.7%) -21.9%

LDem: 13 (2.2%) -13.9%

Lab GAIN from Con

Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet, Isle of Wight Council

LDem: 526 (53.4%) +23.5%

Con: 239 (24.3%) -19.3%

Grn: 153 (15.5%) -11.0%

Ind: 36 (3.7%) New

Lab: 31 (3.1%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Linacre, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 636 (81.5%) +5.3%

Ind: 144 (18.5%) +1.2%

Lab HOLD

Rixton and Woolston, Warrington Borough Council

Con: 648 (42.9%) +2.7%

Lab: 645 (42.7%) +5.5%

LDem: 219 (14.5%) +5.0%

Con HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.11.22

Nine council seats on seven authorities were up for grabs this week.  The Conservatives were defending six seats and held four of these.  They held two seats in South Kesteven, Lincolnshire, narrowly fending off an independent surge in the ward of Grantham St Wulfram's.  They also held in Broxtowe and Cannock Chase, despite a dip in their vote share.

The Tories lost two seats to Labour - one in Braintree, Essex and another in Cannock Chase, Staffordshire, where they slipped to distant third.

It was a tale of independents in the remaining seats, including a gain from the Lib Dems in Kington-upon-Thames.  The only absentees in this week's polls were two independent candidates, one each in Cannock Chase and East Devon.

Braintree South, Braintree District Council

Lab: 372 (45.2%) +15.6%

Con: 317 (38.5%) -10.3%

Grn: 134 (16.3%) -5.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ind: 576 (43.5%) -17.1%

Con: 451 (34.1%) +6.1%

Lab: 297 (22.4%) +11.0%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Greasley, Broxtowe Borough Council

Con: 637 (47.7%) -16.1%

Lab: 555 (41.6%) +5.4%

LDem: 143 (10.7%) New

Con HOLD

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley Borough Council

Lab: 372 (39.4%) +8.5%

LDem: 363 (38.4%) +9.9%

Con: 123 (13.0%) -18.6%

Grn: 87 (9.2%) +0.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cannock West, Cannock Chase District Council

Con: 688 (55.4%) -4.5%

Lab: 430 (34.6%) +7.1%

Grn: 124 (10.0%) +4.5%

Con HOLD

Newton Poppleford & Harpford, East Devon District Council

Ind: 560 (67.1%) New

Lab: 162 (19.4%) New

Con: 113 (13.5%) -0.3%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Green Lane & St James, Kingston-upon-Thames London Borough Council

Ind: 855 (46.3%) +9.0%

LDem: 647 (35.1%) -3.8%

Lab: 265 (14.4%) +3.3%

Con: 78 (4.2%) -8.4%

Ind GAIN from LDem

Bourne East, South Kesteven District Council

Con: 310 (43.5%) +5.6%

Lab: 154 (21.6%) +5.7%

Ind: 120 (16.9%) -29.3%

LDem: 78 (11.0%) New

Grn: 50 (7.0%) New

Con HOLD

Grantham St Wulfram’s, South Kesteven District Council

Con: 359 (39.2%) -20.6%

Ind: 307 (33.6%) New

Lab: 174 (19.0%) +2.1%

Grn: 75 (8.2%) -15.1%

Con HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 03.11.22

Seven seats were on offer this week in six by-elections.  The Conservatives were defending four and lost three.  They held in Croydon, but their vote share plummeted.  They lost to Labour in Lichfield, the Lib Dems in Wiltshire and an independent in Nottinghamshire.  In Wiltshire and Nottinghamshire they slipped to third place.

There was better news for the Tories in South Cambridgeshire, where they took one of two seats the Lib Dems were defending.

In Moray the SNP gained a seat from the Lib Dems in an intriguing contest.  In May's local elections the Lib Dems, SNP and Conservatives each put forward a candidate for three vacancies.  As they were the only three candidates, they were all elected unopposed.  The Lib Dem winner since resigned, hence the by-election.  The Lib Dems came nowhere, leaving the SNP to do battle with an impressive Tory turnout.

Absentees in this week's polls were the Greens in Nottinghamshire and Wiltshire, and the Lib Dems in Nottinghamshire.

Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, Croydon London Borough Council

Con: 983 (46.3%) -21.2%

Grn: 530 (24.9%) +8.8%

Lab: 372 (17.5%) +1.0%

Ind: 168 (7.9%) New

LDem: 72 (3.4%) New

Con HOLD

Chasetown, Lichfield District Council

Lab: 318 (73.3%) +15.2%

Con: 116 (26.7%) -15.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Buckie, Moray Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,172 (48.9%)

Con: 879 (36.7%)

Lab: 239 (10.0%)

LDem: 67 (2.8%)

Ind: 38 (1.6%)

SNP GAIN from LDem (elected at stage 4)

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire County Council

Ind: 1,223 (43.1%) New

Lab: 1,182 (41.7%) -0.1%

Con: 431 (15.2%) -31.2%

Ind GAIN from Con

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire District Council

(two seats)

LDem: 578 (16.9%) elected

Con: 566 (16.5%) elected

LDem: 534 (15.6%)

Ind: 422 (12.3%)

Lab: 411 (12.0%)

Con: 394 (11.5%)

Lab: 266 (7.8%)

Grn: 169 (4.9%)

Grn: 85 (2.5%)

LDem HOLD

Con GAIN from LDem

Salisbury St Paul’s, Wiltshire Council

LDem: 813 (64.8%) +34.8%

Lab: 237 (18.5%) -3.3%

Con: 213 (16.6%) -15.6%

LDem GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.09.22

Eight seats were up for grabs this week up and down the mainland.  In Scotland there was a free-for-all on the west coast following the death of an independent.  Another independent surged to victory, overtaking the SNP and defeating them all the way to the final stage.  Labour were eliminated on first preference votes, finishing a humiliating last place with just 55 votes.  Scotland uses a different voting method to the rest of the UK - the single transferable vote in which voters rank the candidates in order of preference.

In England and Wales there were holds for the Lib Dems (three seats), the Conservatives (two), Labour and Plaid (one each).  The only change of hands was a Labour gain from the Conservatives in Nottinghamshire where a head-to-head battle dramatically turned on its head in favour of red.

There were no absentees in this week's by-elections.  If the opinion polls are to be believed then there will be no need for a 'progressive alliance' at the next election.  Labour are a shoo-in, apparently.  However, while the Tory vote was down in seven of eight of this week's by-elections, Labour's vote was down in five.  The electorate are clearly still not sure about the wooden man of no policies.

Kintyre & the Islands, Argyll and Bute Council

(First preference votes)

Ind: 591 (32.7%) +16.3%

SNP: 525 (29.1%) -0.8%

LDem: 265 (14.7%) -1.7%

Con: 194 (10.7%) +1.2%

Grn: 176 (9.7%) New

Lab: 55 (3.0%) -1.2%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 6)

Logan, Harborough District Council

LDem: 582 (45.7%) +2.7%

Con: 382 (30.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 250 (19.6%) +8.6%

Ind: 60 (4.7%) -8.7%

LDem HOLD

Edwinstowe & Clipstone, Newark and Sherwood District Council

Lab: 804 (59.8%) +10.0%

Con: 540 (40.2%) -10.0%

Lab GAIN from Con

Hinksey Park, Oxford City Council

Lab: 801 (51.3%) -4.7%

Grn: 305 (19.5%) +5.9%

Ind: 270 (17.3%) +3.2%

LDem: 118 (7.6%) -3.2%

Con: 60 (3.8%) -1.8%

TUSC: 8 (0.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Ynysybwl, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Plaid: 435 (59.0%) +3.5%

Lab: 246 (33.4%) -1.2%

Con: 34 (4.6%) New

Gwlad: 14 (1.9%) -8.0%

Grn: 8 (1.1%) New

Plaid HOLD

Facit & Shawforth, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 337 (43.5%) -16.7%

Ind: 214 (27.6%) +27.6%

Lab: 203 (26.2%) -13.5%

Grn: 20 (2.6%) New

Con HOLD

Helmshore, Rossendale Borough Council

Con: 736 (50.6%) -11.3%

Lab: 540 (37.1%) -1.0%

Grn: 74 (5.1%) New

LDem: 62 (4.3%) New

Ind: 42 (2.9%) New

Con HOLD

Grappenhall, Warrington Borough Council

(two seats)

LDem: 1,073

LDem: 1,047

Con: 524

Con: 462

Lab: 193

Grn: 135

LDem HOLD x 2

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

LDem = Liberal Democrats

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

TUSC = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Gwlad = Gwlad

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 15.09.22

Three council by-elections this week and a welcome respite for the Conservatives from a long line of defeats.  They had lost every seat the party was defending in the last six weeks.  Things changed dramatically this week with a hold in Mid Sussex and a stunning victory over Labour in Bolton.  In the latter contest the Labour vote plummeted while the Tories surged.

In the other by-election Labour gained a seat from a local independent group in Mansfield.  The only absentees this week were UKIP who did not field a candidate in Bolton this time.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,610 (55.0%) +44.1%

Lab: 1,102 (37.6%) -35.2%

Grn: 156 (5.3%) -2.6%

LDem: 36 (1.2%) -0.8%

RefUK: 23 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Oak Tree, Mansfield District Council

Lab: 141 (47.0%) +13.6%

Ind: 91 (30.3%) -19.8%

Con: 45 (15.0%) +3.5%

Frdm: 15 (5.0%) New

TUSC: 8 (2.7%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Bolney, Mid Sussex District Council

Con: 301 (50.6%) +1.2%

LDem: 163 (27.4%) +8.3%

Lab: 66 (11.1%) +4.6%

Loon: 30 (5.0%) New

Grn: 28 (4.7%) -8.8%

Ind: 7 (1.2%) New

Con HOLD

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrats

RefUK = Reform UK

Frdm = Freedom

TUSC = Trade Union and Socialist Coalition

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 30.06.22

Ten local elections this week - five Conservative defences, two Labour defences and three open contests.  Two of those free-for-alls came in the Outer Hebrides, where two seats were up for grabs following boundary changes.  The council authority used to be called the Western Isles Council, but this was replaced in 1997 with its Gaelic name - Na h-Eileanan Siar - making it the only council authority in the UK with a Gaelic name.  Both contests were dominated and won by independents.  Please note that Scotland uses a form of proportional representation ie. the single transferable vote.

The other free-for-all was a gain for Labour as they took a seat in Middlesbrough previously held by an independent.

It was another difficult night for the Tories as they lost three of the five seats they were defending - two to the Lib Dems (Bernwood and Bridlington North) and one to Labour (Midway).  Labour held both seats they were defending.

Absences this week were UKIP (Bridlington North, Midway), the Liberal Party (Fazakerley), the Conservatives (Fazakerley) and three independents in Bridlington North.

Bernwood, Buckinghamshire County Council

LDem: 1,158 (38.7%) +21.4%

Grn: 1,030 (34.4%) -3.9%

Con: 723 (24.1%) -9.8%

Lab: 85 (2.8%) -7.7%

LDem GAIN from Con

Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh, Na h-Eileanan Siar

(first preference votes)

Ind: 189 (49.3%)

Ind: 181 (47.3%)

Ind: 13 (3.4%)

Ind GAIN (elected at stage 2)

Sgìr’ Ùige agus Càrlabhagh, Na h-Eileanan Siar

(first preference votes)

Ind: 222 (35.4%)

LDem: 128 (20.4%)

Ind: 113 (18%)

SNP: 96 (15.3%)

Grn: 57 (9.1%)

Ind: 11 (1.8%)

Ind: 1 (0.2%)

Ind GAIN (elected at stage 6)

South Croydon, Croydon London Borough Council

Con: 1,306 (42.9%) +2.9%

Lab: 821 (27.0%) -2.1%

LDem: 448 (14.7%) +0.6%

Grn: 269 (8.8%) -5.5%

Ind: 158 (5.2%) New

UKIP: 25 (0.8%) -1.6%

Ind: 18 (0.6%) New

Con HOLD

Bridlington North, East Riding of Yorkshire Council

LDem: 1,950 (57.1%) +16.8%

Con: 1,077 (31.5%) +6.4%

Lab: 171 (5.0%) -4.7%

SDP: 125 (3.7%) New

Yorks: 93 (2.7%) -8.0%

LDem GAIN from Con

Fazakerley, Liverpool City Council

Lab: 1,365 (57.5%) -25.6%

Ind: 638 (26.9%) New

LDem: 290 (12.2%) +8.2%

Grn: 79 (3.3%) -1.0%

Lab HOLD

Berwick Hills & Pallister, Middlesbrough Council

Lab: 361 (56.8%) +26.5%

Ind: 204 (32.1%) New

Con: 53 (8.3%) +2.8%

LDem: 11 (1.7%) New

Grn: 7 (1.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Ollerton, Newark & Sherwood District Council

Lab: 962 (64.9%) +0.6%

Con: 395 26.7%) -9.0%

Ind: 125 (8.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Midway, South Derbyshire District Council

Lab: 600 (52.6%) +14.8%

Con: 540 (47.4%) +9.1%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cleveleys Park, Wyre Borough Council

Con: 721 (53.7%) -9.0%

Lab: 621 (46.3%) +9.0%

Con HOLD

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Con =  Conservative

Lab = Labour

SNP = Scottish National Party

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Yorks = Yorkshire

Ind = Independence

TORIES DENY DEFECTION RUMOURS

Tory MPs, including former Labour councillor Lee Anderson, have ridiculed suggestions they are about to defect to Labour.  According to a report in The Sunday Times, 'at least' six Tories are thought to be considering crossing the floor in order to save their seats at the next election.  However, the report is not derived from Tory sources, it has come from Labour.

In response to the news, Brendan Clarke-Smith (Bassetlaw) tweeted a photo of himself alongside Nottinghamshire colleague Anderson and Ipswich MP Tom Hunt holding up photographs of beer and curry.  Top trolling lads...

One of those to respond to the trio was none other than Bury South's Christian Wakeford - who remains the only Conservative MP to defect to Labour in this parliamentary term.  Wokeford tweeted: "I thought the Inbetweeners had finished?"  That would have been a faintly amusing comeback, only there were four Inbetweeners, not three.  As several people pointed out to him, perhaps the Three Stooges would have been a more appropriate insult.

It may well be that The Sunday Times source was Wakeford himself, with potential deserters reaching out to their former colleague.  Or it could just be some mischief making with little or no basis whatsoever.  Other Tories were also quick to dismiss suggestions they could be leaving the sinking ship.  Two Johnson critics were among them.  Caroline Nokes (Romsey & Southampton North) responded to Bishop Auckland's Dehenna Davison to issue a denial of her own.  Both voted against the PM in the recent confidence vote.

Gary Sambrook (Birmingham Northfield) joked that he was too 'working class to join Labour'.

Only time will tell if any more Tories follow Wokeford across the floor, but it's already been six months since he defected.  We are also still only halfway through this parliament and there remains a faint possibility that Johnson could turn things around or, if things don't improve he could be gone in a confidence vote next year.  Tory backbenchers would perhaps be wise to hang on a little while longer and see if the current car crash can be reversed.