TORIES FOURTH IN NEW POLL

The latest YouGov poll suggests Keir Starmer's tough talk on migration has had little effect on his party's popularity, quite the opposite in fact.  Labour have actually dropped a percentage point, while Reform UK have gained one.  The most significant aspect of the poll is the fact that the Tories have slumped into fourth place behind the Lib Dems, garnering their lowest ever vote share in the history of the polling organisation.

The poll was carried out between the 18th and 19th of May.  Here are the changes (in brackets) against the previous YouGov poll, carried out between 11th and 12th of May.

Reform UK = 29% (+1)

Labour = 22% (-1)

Lib Dem = 17% (+1)

Conservative = 16% (-2)

Green = 10% (+1)

SNP = 2% (-1)

Plaid = 1% (n/c)

Others = 2% (-1)

Kemi Badenoch's faltering leadership is probably on borrowed time, with her defeated leadership opponent Robert Jenrick currently engaged in an aggressive social media campaign to portray himself as a hard right alternative to both Badenoch and Nigel Farage.  The problem with Jenrick is that he is no more detached from the Tory party's disastrous last term than Badenoch, and his attempt to paint himself as a real conservative now is too little, too late.

Another catastrophic performance in next May's elections could prompt a leadership challenge, but all this will achieve is to merely rearrange the deckchairs on a sinking Tory Titantic.

BUILDING BACK WORSE

The words 'Build Back Better' emblazoned all over the Tory party conference is a familiar slogan for those who follow world politics.  It has been used as a slogan by Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau of Canada and Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand.  Not one of them is a conservative, in fact quite the opposite, which begs the question as to why a 'conservative' government in the UK would adopt the same slogan so enthusiastically.  Some would argue that they have all bought into Klaus Schwab's 'Fourth Industrial Revolution' - alternatively known as the Great Reset.  Certainly everything that is currently happening across the West suggests a co-ordinated direction of travel that would deliver precisely what Schwab and his World Economic Forum are after - total digital enslavement of the human race by way of a QR code.

Lockdown sceptic Steve Baker is not convinced by his party's adoption of the slogan.  The Tory backbencher conducted his own poll on Twitter and after 27,172 votes his concern was clearly shared.

Now Steve Baker is not one for 'wild conspiracy theories', but has said that it's little wonder that such views were gaining a foothold given his government's behaviour over the last 18 months.  Baker will have no doubt been disappointed to hear Sajid Javid adopting a hard line over vaccines in Wednesday's press briefing.  It had been hoped by many, including Baker, that Matt Hancock's replacement would take a more libertarian approach.  However, Javid suggested that a third Covid jab would be required in order to 'keep your freedoms'.

In a further blow to libertarian fears, Javid confirmed that he met with prominent globalist Bill Gates on Thursday.  Gates also met with the Prime Minister earlier this week.

Plan B and digital IDs are on their way.

GALLOWAY'S PENALTY POLL

George Galloway has posed a somewhat surprising question in the wake of David Amess's brutal murder.  The former Labour MP posted a Twitter poll on Sunday evening, asking if the death penalty should be brought back.  He only gave the poll an airing of one hour, so the response wasn't huge, but with 2,744 votes it was still a bigger sample size than the average YouGov poll.  Furthermore, the outcome raised more than a few eyebrows...

The result certainly didn't reflect the angry comments found on his tweet, the majority of which poured scorn on the suggestion.  If it was a binding referendum would they respect the result?  Or would they campaign for another vote, perhaps suggesting that voters were ill-informed or poorly educated?

Galloway conducted his poll ahead of his Russia Today show - the Mother of All Talk Shows aka #MOATS.

LONDON TO KEEP ON FALLING

Aspiring politician Laurence Fox will get his first big test today when he stands in London's mayoral election.  A record 20 candidates are standing in the election, so Fox is among a very crowded field.  Each candidate needs at least five per cent of the vote in order to save their deposit, which is a whopping £10,000 in this election.  With the two leading candidates set to receive as much as 80 per cent between them, it doesn't take a genius to work out that most of those candidates will lose their deposits.

Fox will do well to keep his, but with a household name and big money backing his Reclaim Party, he could potentially do much better.  Some Tories are worried that his presence will 'split the vote' and hamper Shaun Bailey's chances.  Unfortunately, for everyone, Bailey has little chance of success anyway.

In the most recent opinion poll Bailey was 12 points behind Khan in the first ballot and 18 points behind in the final round.  The final round is required if no candidate achieves more than 50 per cent in the first ballot.  Khan had been polling more than 50 per cent earlier in the spring, peaking at 53 per cent in March.  Having fallen to 43 per cent on the eve of polling will dent his massive ego.

London Mayoral Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

Sadiq Khan (Lab) 43% (-4)

Shaun Bailey (Con) 31% (+5)

Siân Berry (Green) 10% (+1)

Luisa Porritt (LDem) 5% (-2)

Laurence Fox (Rec)  3% (-1)

Others 8% (+1)

Final Round

Khan 59% (-7)

Bailey 41% (+7)

The sample size was 1,147.  Changes are against YouGov's poll conducted 29 March-1 April.

Contrary to the warblings of some Tory backers, there is nothing wrong with Shaun Bailey's candidacy.  They will blame Bailey when he fails to defeat Khan, but the sad truth is that there was no-one else they could put forward who would have been a significant threat to the mayor of this painfully woke city.  A rapidly changing demographic killed off their chances, not their candidate.

Bailey is a great candidate who is more than a match for Khan and has the common touch that Khan lacks.  Khan is great when it comes to ego-massaging selfies with his adoring woke electorate, but he runs a mile when a disgruntled peasant approaches.  He is archetypal of the modern Labour politician - working class people are like vermin to him and the sooner they are run out of London completely the better.  The future is grim for our capital city and it seems that no matter how much crime spirals out of control, the middle classes can't get enough of Khan.

For now all we can hope is that Bailey does better than expected and Fox, too.  A saved deposit for the latter would spare his blushes and give him a base on which to build.  The continuing overlap between his party and Reform may lead to an official merger later on, but the British people are crying out for a third party to challenge the two-party protection racket that offers nothing but lockdown and misery.

London Mayoral Candidates

Shaun Bailey (Conservative)

Kam Balayev (Renew)

Siân Berry (Green)

Count Binface (Count Binface Party)

Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)

Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)

Max Fosh (Ind)

Laurence Fox (Reclaim)

Peter Gammons (UKIP)

Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)

Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare)

Steve Kelleher (SDP)

Sadiq Khan (Labour)

David Kurten (Heritage)

Farah London (Ind)

Niko Omilana (Ind)

Nims Obunge (Ind)

Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)

Mandu Reid (Women's Equality)

Brian Rose (London Real)

STARMER ROCKED BY NEW POLL

Keir Starmer has been rocked by a double whammy ahead of the crucial by-election in Hartlepool.  A new poll by Survation has put the Tory candidate a whopping 17 points ahead of Labour, while canvassing returns from the party's own activists suggests only 40 per cent of existing Labour voters are prepared to back the party on Thursday.

The sample size for Survation's poll is pitifully small at 517, but the canvassing returns of Labour activists are not.  According to The Guardian, Labour teams have canvassed more than 10,000 voters in Hartlepool, representing around 14 per cent of the electorate.  Labour is defending a 3,595 majority going into the by-election and it's not looking good for Sir Squeaky.

Hartlepool Parliamentary By-Election Poll (Survation, 23-29 April)

Con 50% (+1)

Lab 33% (-9)

Ind (Walker) 6% (+4)

Ind (Lee) 6% (+2)

Green 3% (+2)

LDem  1% (-)

Reform  1% (-)

The sample size was 517 and changes are against Survation's poll conducted 29 March-3 April.

STURGEON ON COURSE

Undoubtedly the most important election taking place on Thursday will be north of the border.  The outcome of the Holyrood elections could potentially shape the future of the entire United Kingdom.  If Sturgeon and her separatist allies win a majority of seats they will push for another independence referendum, despite telling everybody in 2014 that such an event was 'once in a generation'.

According to most recent polling the SNP are projected to win an outright majority, but even if they fall short they can rely on the pro-indy Greens to back them up.  The highly respected pollster Professor John Curtice predicts that the SNP will win 68 seats, a majority of four.  The Greens would more than double their current tally of five and pick up 13 seats.  The other pro-indy party of Alex Salmond would enter Holyrood with one seat, but according to Professor Curtice it is unlikely to be Salmond who picks up that solitary seat (bit awkward).

Nicola Sturgeon has reason to be cheerful

Hapless Salmond, seen here trying to spell the name of his own party, may not be
victorious on Thursday.  The only Alba gain is likely to be Eva Comrie (far right)

Despite the mainstream media talking up Labour's new leader Anas Sarwar, his party looks set to finish third for the second consecutive election.  According to Professor Curtice, the Tories will pick up around 26 seats - down five - but will stay well clear of Labour who will lose seven seats and end up with as little as 17.

Curtice's predictions are based on the following YouGov polling.  Note that like Wales, Scottish voters get two votes - one constituency and one regional.

Holyrood Constituency Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

SNP 52% (+3)

Con 20% (-1)

Lab 19% (-2)

LDem 6% (-)

Green 2% (+1)

Other 1% (-1)

Holyrood Regional Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

SNP 38% (-1)

Con 22% (-)

Lab 16% (-1)

Green 13% (+3)

LDem 5% (-)

Alba 3% (+1)

Reform 1% (-)

Other 2% (-)

The sample size was 1,000 and changes are against YouGov's poll conducted 16-20 April.

While Sturgeon will be over the moon if these polls are reproduced on Thursday, there is less enthusiasm for her independence dream.  Polling on independence swung away from Yes last month, including a Savanta poll that gave No a seven point lead.  However, in two of the most recent polls the question has returned a dead heat.

Scottish Independence Polls

Yes 45% (-) No 45% (+2) Opinium, 28 April-3 May

Yes 48% (+1) No 45% (-3) Panelbase, 28-30 April

Yes 47% (-2) No 47% (-1) BMG, 27-30 April

Yes 42% (-2) No 49% (+1) Savanta, 23-27 April

Yes 42% (-2) No 47% (+2) Survation, 23-26 April

STARMER'S WELSH PINT

The socialist governments in Scotland and Wales have finally allowed hospitality venues to reopen - two weeks after England.  Nicola Sturgeon has gone one step further than Boris Johnson and Mark Drakeford, in that venues can open indoors, but only until 20:00 and no alcohol is allowed (another absurd rule in these absurd times).

One man, it seems, was allowed to sup a pint in Wales before the mere mortals (aka plebs).  Sir Squeaky was visiting a Wrexham brewery on Thursday and as part of his photo op poured himself a pint.  Welsh Tory leader Andrew RT Davies wasn't best pleased with the Labour leader's timing...

RT Davies will be similarly bemused by his party's recent poll slump in Wales.  In the most recent poll, conducted 18-21 April, his party have dropped six points and are now level pegging with Plaid Cymru. During the same period Labour have bizarrely gained three points.

Senedd Constituency Poll (ITV Cymru)

Lab 35% (+3)

Con 24% (-6)

Plaid 24% (+1)

Reform 4% (+1)

LDem 3% (-2)

Green 3% (+1)

AWAP 3% (+1)

Other 3% (+2)

In polling for regional seats (Senedd voters get two votes, one constituency and one regional), the Tories are lagging in third place.  However, despite Labour's lead they are still polling around five seats short of a majority and overall would be three seats down from 2016.  In 2016 they were able to govern thanks to the addition of a solitary Lib Dem.  This time around that wouldn't be enough and they are widely expected to reach out to the separatist socialists of Plaid Cymru in the event they fail to win enough seats to form a majority by themselves.

Senedd Regional Poll (ITV Cymru)

Lab 33% (+2)

Plaid 23% (+1)

Con 22% (-6)

AWAP 7% (-)

Green 5% (+2)

LDem 4% (-)

Other 6% (+4)

AWAP = Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party

The sample size was 1,142 and changes are against ITV Cymru's poll conducted 16-19 March.

LABOUR SET FOR HARTLEPOOL DEFEAT

The current Hartlepool constituency was formed in 1974 and has been held by Labour ever since.  Before then it was known as The Hartlepools, which Labour held from 1964.  That's an unbroken stretch of 57 years of Labour representation.  In just over four week's time that impressive run could be at an end.

Defeat in the big by-election of May 6 could spell disaster for Keir Starmer, but that is exactly what's on the cards.  The bookies have got the Tories odds on favourites to win and a new opinion poll has them seven points ahead of Labour.  Perhaps the decision to install a staunch Remainer as their candidate has already lost Labour the seat.  In 2016 the constituency returned a 70 per cent Leave vote, one of the largest in the country.  Three years later the Brexit Party picked up more than 25 per cent in the general election - their second best result across the country.  Hartlepool is unarguably Brexit country and it's the destination of those 10,603 Brexit Party voters from 2019 that will decide the outcome of this by-election.

If this election was to follow the pattern of previous elections, most of those voters would return to Labour.  However, it is being claimed by Survation pollsters that this time most Brexit voters will actually switch to the Conservatives for the first time, turning their backs on Labour altogether.

Survation poll 29 Mar-3 April

Con 49%

Lab 42%

NIP 2%

Ref 1%

Green 1%

LDem 1%

Other 4%

NIP = Northern Independence Party

Ref = Reform UK, previously the Brexit Party

The sample size in this poll was just 502.  Intriguingly, the client was the Communication Workers' Union.  Not sure how their members would feel about their subs being used to commission opinion polls, but it appears that the CWU has an axe to grind with Keir Starmer.  The union was a staunch supporter of Jeremy Corbyn and backed Long-Bailey in last year's leadership election.  Other questions in the Survation/CWU poll asked voters whether they supported Corbyn policies such as free broadband and renationalising Royal Mail.

How is this relevant now?  It is only relevant if you're trying to undermine the current party leader and that seems to be the motive behind the poll.  Dave Ward, the general secretary of the CWU, discussed the poll in an interview with Michael Walker of the far left Novara Media site.  Ward claims in the interview that the strategy of his union is to 'unite working class people'.  Good luck with that pal.  The workers continue to abandon Labour regardless of whether it's Corbyn or Starmer running the show.

We strongly suspect that the left are gearing up for a leadership challenge in the wake of the May elections and defeat in Hartlepool is key to triggering it.  However, given that so many of Corbyn's allies either lost their seats or failed to get elected in 2019, they may not have the numbers to launch a challenge.

An unnamed Labour source quoted in the Telegraph on Tuesday suggested that Hartlepool may already be lost: "Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the Brexit Party.  In the context of the vaccine bounce, the Conservatives should take this seat".

The candidates for the by-election were confirmed on Thursday afternoon.  Here they are in full, followed by the most recent election result.  Note that there are no less than three former Labour MPs standing in this election.

2021 by-election candidates

David Bettney (SDP)

Hilton Dawson (North East Party) - Labour MP for Lancaster and Wyre 1997-2005

The Incredible Flying Brick (Loony)

Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)

Rachael Featherstone (Green)

Adam Gaines (Ind)

Andy Hagon (LDem) - third consecutive time he's stood for Hartlepool

Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance)

Chris Killick (Ind)

Samantha Lee (Ind)

Claire Martin (Heritage)

Jill Mortimer (Con) - North Yorkshire county councillor

John Prescott (Reform) - no, not that John Prescott

Thelma Walker (Northern Independence Party) - Labour MP for Colne Valley 2017-19

W. Ralph Ward-Jackson (Ind)

Paul Williams (Lab) - Labour MP for Stockton South 2017-19

2019 general election

Mike Hill (Lab) 15,464 (37.7%) -14.8%

Stefan Houghton (Con) 11,869 (28.9%) -5.3%

Richard Tice (Brexit) 10,603 (25.8%) New

Andy Hagon (LDem) 1,696 (4.1%) +2.3%

Joe Bousfield (Ind) 911 (2.2%) New

Kevin Cranney (Soc Lab) 494 (1.2%) New

LABOUR'S WORST SENEDD ELECTION?

The Tories' vaccine poll surge appears to have extended to Wales with the latest YouGov poll suggesting they have closed the gap on Labour to just two points.  If repeated in May's Senedd election, Labour would suffer its worst performance since power was devolved in 1999.  It would also have to seek a significant coalition partner in order to govern effectively, rather than the handful of Lib Dems it relied on in the 2016 election.  As fellow manky socialists, Plaid Cymru would be the obvious go to choice for comrade Drakeford.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov, 16-19 March)

Lab 32% (-1)

Con 30% (+2)

Plaid 23% (+1)

LDem 5% (+1)

AWAP 3% (+3)

Reform 3% (-1)

Green 2% (-2)

Other 2% (-3)

AWAP = Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party

With regional polling thrown in, the results of the YouGov poll would give Labour just 22 seats, down eight from 2016.  The Tories would win 19 seats, up eight from 2016.  Plaid would win 14, up two, meaning Drakeford's first call after the election would be to Adam Price their leader.

A socialist coalition with a separatist agenda from the junior partner?  Disastrous for Wales.

LABOUR SWING STALLS

The latest round of opinion polling suggests Labour and the Tories are still pretty much neck and neck - one poll putting the Labour lead at four points, while others put the Tories in front by a similar margin.

Please note that polling figures are rounded to the nearest decimal point and therefore may not provide a 100 per cent combined total.

Opinium poll 14-15 Jan (changes from 6-7 Jan)

Lab 41% (+1)

Con 37% (-2)

LD 6% (-)

SNP 6% (+1)

Green 4% (-)

Other 5% (-1)

Survation poll 12-13 Jan (changes from 22 Dec)

Con 40% (+1)

Lab 38% (-)

LD 7% (-1)

Green 5% (+1)

SNP 4% (-1)

Other 7% (-)

Redfield & Wilton poll 11 Jan (changes from 2 Dec)

Con 41% (+1)

Lab 37% (-)

LD 8% (-1)

Green 5% (-1)

SNP 5% (-)

Other 3% (-1)

Savanta ComRes poll 8-10 Jan (changes from 18-21 Dec)

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 37% (-2)

LD 8% (-)

Green 4% (-)

SNP 4% (-1)

Other 7% (+3)

The sample sizes were 2,003 (Opinium), 1,033 (Survation), 2,000 (Redfield) and 1,550 (Savanta).

These poll results overall do not show a continued swing towards Labour and the parties remain generally tied as they have since the end of October.  However, twelve months ago pollsters had the Conservative leading Labour by between 11 and 20 points.

LABOUR POLL SWING CONTINUES

The swing to Labour shows no sign of stopping with two of the most recent opinion polls giving Starmer's lockdown enthusiasts a lead.  Opinium and YouGov give Labour a 4 and 5 point lead respectively, while Survation gives the Tories a 2 point lead.

YouGov hasn't exactly showered itself in glory recently, having confidently announced that Joe Biden was going to obliterate Donald Trump.  Using the 'MRP model' that had mixed results predicting last year's general election, YouGov forecast that Biden was going to win a landslide victory 382-156.  In reality the final result looks like being 306-232.  YouGov predicted Florida, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina would turn blue.  They didn't.  To be fair, US pollsters didn't fair any better.

The sample sizes for the following polls were 2,003 (Opinium), 1,034 (Survation) and 1,665 (YouGov).

Opinium poll 5-6 Nov (changes from 22-23 Oct)

Lab 42% (+2)

Con 38% (-)

LD 7% (+1)

SNP 5% (-)

Green 3% (-2)

Other 6% (-)

Survation poll 5-6 Nov (changes from 5-6 Oct)

Con 39% (-2)

Lab 37% (-)

LD 9% (+2)

SNP 5% (+1)

Green 4% (-)

Other 6% (-1)

YouGov poll 4-5 Nov (changes from 28-29 Oct)

Lab 40% (+2)

Con 35% (-3)

LD 7% (+1)

SNP 5% (-)

Green 4% (-1)

Other 9% (+2)

POLLS CONTINUE TO NARROW

A misleading headline appeared on a left-wing news website over the weekend.  The London Economic reported that Labour had taken a lead in the polls, but the story actually concerned a single opinion poll and another poll released the same day showed a Tory lead.

The London Economic was referring to the latest Opinium poll in which Labour had taken a two point lead after support for the Tories dipped (see below).

Opinium poll 22-23 Oct (changes from 8-9 Oct)

Lab 40% (-)

Con 38% (-2)

LD 6% (-)

SNP 5% (-1)

Green 5% (+2)

Other 6% (-)

While some recent polls have suggested the parties are tied, only one other poll this year has shown a Labour lead - last month the same polling organisation showed a three point Labour lead.  It's probably purely coincidental that Opinium conducts its polls on behalf of The Guardian's sister newspaper - The Observer.

Deltapoll released their latest poll on the same day as Opinium's, but suggested that it was the Tories who were in the lead.

Deltapoll poll 22-24 Oct (changes from 24-25 Sept)

Con 42% (-)

Lab 39% (+1)

LD 7% (+1)

SNP 3% (-2)

Green 3% (-1)

Other 7% (+2)

It's also worth noting that Deltapoll conducts its polls on behalf of the Mail on Sunday.

YouGov's latest poll suggests a wafer thin Tory lead of one per cent.

YouGov poll 21-22 Oct (changes from 14-15 Oct)

Con 40% (+1)

Lab 39% (+1)

LD 7% (+1)

SNP 5% (-)

Green 5% (-1)

Other 6% (-1)

Redfield and Wilton's poll suggests the parties are tied.

Redfield & Wilton poll 21 Oct (changes from 6-7 Oct)

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 40% (+1)

LD 7% (-1)

SNP 5% (+1)

Green 4% (-)

Other 4% (+1)

So despite claims by The London Economic, Labour do not lead in the polls.  They lead in one poll.  However, it is clear that things have changed dramatically since the start of the pandemic.  In March the Tories were averaging 50 per cent while Labour were way behind at around 29 per cent.  Now they are almost even, and that's prior to a devastating recession.

Sample sizes for the above polls are 2,002 (Opinium), 1,589 (Deltapoll), 1,665 (YouGov) and 3,000 (Redfield & Wilton).

YOUGOV TIES LAB-CON

The latest YouGov poll for Westminster voting has the Tories and Labour tied on 40 per cent.  This is the worst YouGov poll result for the Conservatives since June 2019 when they were tied with the Brexit Party on 22 per cent.  To put Westminster opinion polls into perspective, six months after that poll the Brexit Party failed to pick up a single Westminster seat.

The latest poll suggests a five point Tory lead has been wiped out in the space of a week (see changes below).

YouGov poll 16-17 Sept (changes from 8-9 Sept)

Con 40% (-2)

Lab 40% (+3)

LD 6% (-)

Green 5% (+1)

SNP 4% (-1)

Brexit 3% (-)

Plaid 1% (-)

Other 1% (-)

Other polling organisations still have the Tories in front with slender leads.  On current trends it's likely we'll see Labour overtake the Conservatives in opinion polling in a matter of weeks.

Redfield & Wilton poll 15-16 Sept (changes from 1-2 Sept)

Con 41% (-2)

Lab 39% (+2)

LD 8% (-)

Green 5% (-)

SNP 5% (+1)

Other 3% (-)

Opinium poll 9-11 Sept (changes from 26-28 Aug)

Con 42% (+2)

Lab 39% (-1)

LD 6% (-)

Green 4% (+1)

SNP 5% (-)

Other 4% (+2)

Samples sizes were 1,618 (YouGov), 2,500 (Redfield) and 2,001 (Opinium).

TORY POLL LEAD LOWEST SINCE JULY 2019

A drop of four percentage points in a week has seen the Tory lead fall to its lowest margin since July 2019.  Even at the height of the pandemic the Tories were still enjoying a whopping poll lead of up to 26 per cent.  According to YouGov it is now 2 per cent.

The current poll was carried out 18-19 August with a sample size of 1,652.  An identical poll was carried out precisely one week earlier, where the Tory lead was put at 9 per cent.

YouGov poll 18-19 Aug (changes from 11-12 August)

Con 40% (-4%)

Lab 38% (+3%)

LD 6% (+1%)

Green 6% (+1%)

SNP 5% (-1%)

Brexit 4% (+1%)

Plaid 1% (-)

Other 1% (-)

YouGov attributes the new figures to the A-levels fiasco.  However, not for the first time their percentages don't quite add up.  This time all the party percentages add up to 101 per cent.  One of their three Westminster polls conducted last month added up to 99 per cent.  Presumably this is because the figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.

YouGov also asked those polled on who they thought would make the best PM.  Starmer has now pulled ahead by four points to 35, while Boris is level pegging with the don't knows at 31 (four per cent refused to answer - making it another puzzling 101 per cent in total).  This is promising for Sir Squeaky as his predecessor was never seen as a better potential PM than even Theresa May.  He also consistently failed to poll better than the don't knows.

While YouGov are (somehow) the big name in polling, they are by no means the only team on the field.  Redfield and Wilton Strategies carried out a poll on August 19 with a sample size of 2,000.  Compared to an identical poll they conducted on August 12 they found that there was no change in the Tory lead at all, which they estimated to be at 7 per cent.

Redfield & Wilton poll 19 Aug (changes from 12 Aug)

Con 44% (+1%)

Lab 37% (+1%)

LD 7% (-2%)

Green 4% (+1%)

SNP 4% (-)

Other 3% (-)

And yes, that only makes 99 per cent in total.  Redfield and Wilton also posed the same question about who would make the best PM.  This revealed a stark contrast with YouGov's findings.  Redfield and Wilton put Boris Johnson eight points ahead of Starmer.  However, this lead was a marked decrease on their corresponding poll from a week earlier.  On August 12 they had Boris ahead by 14 per cent.

Of course opinion polls are not necessarily a reliable source of public opinion.  They famously failed to predict the outcome of the 2015 general election, for example.  However, if this month's polling range is within the margin of error then an election tomorrow could potentially end in a hung Parliament.  Given that only nine months ago the Tories romped to victory this is an astonishing turnaround.

A lot can happen in four years, but as we enter the worst recession in living memory it could take a monumental effort to stave off that hung Parliament.

LABOUR MEMBERS NOT CONFIDENT FOR 2024

Pro-Labour website LabourList has conducted a poll of its visitors in which over half said the party could not win the next general election.  Of all the possible outcomes, the most popular response was a Tory majority (26.7%).  This compared with just 8.4% for a Labour majority.  The 7,197 polled thought that a Labour-led coalition (14.9%) or a Labour minority government (11.7%) was more likely than a Labour majority.

There was worse news for Keir Starmer when it came to his leadership.  Asked whether they were happy with his leadership the response was almost a 50-50 split, with 'very unhappy' being the most popular response (34.3%).  This was marginally ahead of 'very happy' (33.8%).

While those polled were split on Starmer, the response was more universal on other questions.  81.5% thought the party should support the cancellation of local authority debt.  75.2% thought that proportional representation should be introduced for all UK elections.  70.8% agreed with Dawn Butler that the Metropolitan Police is institutionally racist.

Readers were also asked who their favourite shadow cabinet members were.  Amazingly the most popular response was David Lammy.  He was followed by Ed Miliband, Rosena Allin-Khan and Angela Rayner.  There were mixed results for the most senior members of Starmer's team.  While Lisa Nandy (Shadow Foreign Secretary) and Anneliese Dodds (Shadow Chancellor) polled well, the incredibly dull Nick Thomas-Symonds (Shadow Home Secretary) appeared way down the list with just 392 votes compared to 2,727 for Lammy.

The poll was carried out between 14-16 August and 80.9% of those polled said they were Labour Party members.  Full results can be found here.

KHAN STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDSLIDE

The latest opinion poll for next year's London mayoral election shows that Sadiq Khan still commands a huge lead over his Tory challenger.  The Redfield and Wilton poll was carried out between 5-7 August and uses a sample size of 2,500.  Comparing it to the other most recent poll - carried out by YouGov in March - Khan remains on 49 per cent, while the Conservative's Shaun Bailey has gained two percentage points and is up to 26 per cent.

At 49 per cent Khan is well within the margin of error to take victory in the first round of voting, for which a candidate requires more than 50 per cent of the vote.  This comes despite Khan's woeful record during the pandemic, from his disastrous slashing of public transport services to his avoidance of scrutiny in the Greater London Assembly.

There is better news for Shaun Bailey in head-to-head polling.  If Khan fails to reach the 50 per cent threshold he would go up against Bailey in a run-off.  The latest poll suggests the result would be 61-39 in Khan's favour.  This is 12 points closer than it was in March, when YouGov scored it 67-33 in Khan's favour.

However, the latest polling figures present barely any advance at all when compared to the first YouGov poll conducted almost two years ago.  In December 2018 Bailey was polling 28 per cent in the first round and 38 per cent in the run-off.  The failure to make any impact on Khan's lead has led some in the party to suggest that Bailey should be given the elbow in favour of a 'big hitter'.  Either way, time is running out if they want to avoid a crushing defeat in just eight months time.

FACE MASK DAY FOR ENGLAND

They're already compulsory in Scotland and face coverings are now mandatory in shops in England too.  Northern Ireland will join in on August 1, but oddly the only part of the UK with a Labour administration has no plans to enforce masks in shops.  Mark Drakeford has been stubbornly slow to get Wales out of lockdown and the hospitality industry cannot re-open fully until August 3.  His socialist administration is keen on taking liberties and unbelievably they are looking to ban smoking outdoors if they form the next Welsh government.  While it's surprising that such left-wing control freaks have not leapt at the chance to tell people to mask up, perhaps it's more surprising to see a libertarian Prime Minister suddenly announce that shoppers in England would have to.

The move has been eminently more controversial than lockdown.  A recent YouGov poll suggests that support for mandatory masks in shops is at 80 per cent, while support for lockdown was 93 per cent.  However, the spread of the virus has been in decline for months, so the timing has raised a few eyebrows.

While the YouGov poll had a pitiful sample size - 1,600 - our recent Facebook poll on the same topic attracted 11,000 votes.  The result was much more polarised with 53 per cent in support of the move.  Was this indicative of conservative opinion or was it more reflective of a greater split in the general population?  Four months earlier our lockdown poll was almost identical to YouGov's - support at 94 per cent after 13,800 votes.  The disparity on face masks is huge.

In the days leading up to the introduction of mandatory face masks in England there does not appear to be an overwhelming enthusiasm for masks in shops.  Richey went shopping on Wednesday and found that in one store - B&Q - not one person inside that store wore a mask.  In the supermarket it was a different story, but still only around half of shoppers were masked up.  Will the other half suddenly reach for their masks come Friday?  Perhaps, but if you are unhappy and think the government is taking one too many liberties you can easily exempt yourself.

The Hidden Disabilities charity has produced an exemption card that can be obtained here.  It costs 55p + postage.  There are two exemptions handed down by the government that allow for ambiguity:

• If you have a physical or mental illness or impairment, or a disability that means you cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering
• If putting on, wearing or removing a face covering would cause you severe distress

It's doubtful many fines will be handed out to shoppers who refuse to wear masks, especially if they know about these two easy cop-outs.

LABOUR NOT TRUSTED ON ECONOMY

YouGov released a new poll on Wednesday, but the results were mixed for Boris Johnson.  The public are apparently still wise to Labour on the economy, despite Starmer's attempt to shift the party from the hard left.  Asked on who they trusted to run the economy, those polled backed the Tory government almost two to one over Starmer's Labour (see below).

However, asked on which leader they saw as more competent, Starmer has overtaken Johnson.  The same poll two months ago had Johnson well in front of Starmer, as he had been with Jeremy Corbyn.  Corbyn never overtook a Tory PM in a competence poll, even at Theresa May's lowest ebb, so this latest poll will be of some concern to the Tories.

The latest election polling from YouGov shows Labour narrowing the Tory lead to eight points compared to the previous poll carried out at the end of May.  The poll was carried out a week ago (see below).

Westminster Voting Intention (11-12 June)

Con: 45% (-)

Lab: 37% (+2)

LDem: 6% (-)

Green: 4% (-1)

Brexit: 2% (-)

Others: 6% (-1)

STARMER'S STUTTERING START

The latest YouGov findings show that neither coronavirus or new opposition leadership has dramatically impacted on public opinion where Westminster is concerned.  The poll was carried out at the end of last week and although Labour have cut the Tory lead by three points, Keir Starmer is clearly not inspiring the public as a leader.  He is currently trailing in third behind the 'don't knows' when it comes to who would make the best PM.

This is a poll that dogged Jeremy Corbyn throughout his leadership as he never did overtake the 'don't knows', even when he was up against Theresa May at her lowest ebb.  There is some solace here for Sir Keir as he has improved on Corbyn's figures by four points.  However, this still leaves him 24 points behind Boris Johnson.

One obstacle for Starmer appears to be a lack of recognition with the general public.  His painfully dull persona was always going to hold him back, but just compare his YouGov ratings with that of Boris Johnson.  Boris is the most popular and most famous Tory politician, whereas Starmer is the 27th most popular and 30th most famous Labour politician.

In terms of popularity Starmer trails behind dozens of Labour backbenchers, former party leaders and former MPs including Corbyn, McDonnell, Brown, Blair, both Milibands, Neil Kinnock, Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey and Dave Lammy!  The fact that Ed Balls tops this list suggests that reality television is a powerful influence on public opinion.  It's highly doubtful that wooden Starmer would ever be that desperate, but could anyone have ever predicted that one day Labour's shadow chancellor would one day be seen prancing around in green face paint on prime-time Saturday night telly?

In terms of fame Starmer is even further down the list and is leapfrogged by the likes of Diane Abbott, Peter Mandelson and Keith Vaz.  If Starmer wasn't such a heartless monotone-voiced robot this may be disheartening to him, but then he would quite rightly say that Westminster is not a popularity contest.  It does help though, especially if you want people to vote for you.

Back to the nitty-gritty and the latest Westminster voting intention figures.  According to YouGov's latest findings the Labour Party have advanced on the Tories by a net three points, due in most part to a decline for the Lib Dems/Greens.  Remain voters switching to Labour?  This would come as no surprise seeing as Starmer was the chief architect of Labour's second referendum con.

Con: 53% (+1)

Lab: 32% (+4)

LDem: 5% (-3)

SNP: 4% (-1)

Green: 3% (-2)

Brexit: 1% (-)

Plaid: 1% (-)

Others: 1% (-)

Another interesting finding from YouGov is the government's overall approval rating.  Despite desperate attempts by both Labour and the mass media to trash the government's handling of coronavirus, the poll shows public approval of the government has increased during the pandemic.  The following poll tracker shows that public approval rose steeply last month while disapproval fell.

Not an easy task ahead of you Sir Keir!

MAGUIRE CALLS FOR (YET) ANOTHER ELECTION

In the last ten years we've had an astonishing four general elections - May 2010, May 2015, June 2017 and December 2019.  This is the most elections in any one decade since the 1970s when there were also four.  Now, due to the coronacrisis one left-wing journalist believes the reset button should be hit and yet another election should be held when this is all over.

Good Morning Britain regular Kevin Maguire argues that coronavirus renders the Conservative manifesto null and void.  He's not wrong there.  The economic woe and national debt resulting from this will mean the Tories cannot possibly honour their election pledges: "The political kaleidoscope is shaken again and when we’re unsure how the pieces will settle, the democratic argument is clear for another election to take instructions from the people".  Maguire clearly feels that Labour could be well placed to win an election following the crisis, but he should be careful what he wishes for.  

Recent opinion polls show the Tories are stretching even further ahead of Labour and as Maguire says so himself in his article: "Three Labour MPs I canvassed, smart politicians who will be in Starmer’s team, didn’t want one and are confident Tory record poll leads will drain away later when Johnson’s faults are scrutinised forensically on the other side of this apocalypse".  Maguire looks to the way Churchill was unceremoniously dumped from office at the end of the Second World War, but this is a lame argument for a Labour victory now.

The three most recent opinion polls for Westminster voting are as follows:

Opinium (26-27 March)

Con: 54% (+5)

Lab: 28% (-4)

L Dem: 6% (-)

Green: 3% (-2)

Sample size:  2,006

Number Cruncher (24-26 March)

Con: 54% (+11)

Lab: 28% (-5)

L Dem: 7% (-5)

Green: 4% (-1)

Sample size:  1,010

Ipsos MORI (13-16 March)

Con: 52% (+5)

Lab: 30% (-)

L Dem: 9% (-2)

Green: 4% (-1)

Sample size:  1,003