Monday 21 September 2020

YOUGOV TIES LAB-CON

The latest YouGov poll for Westminster voting has the Tories and Labour tied on 40 per cent.  This is the worst YouGov poll result for the Conservatives since June 2019 when they were tied with the Brexit Party on 22 per cent.  To put Westminster opinion polls into perspective, six months after that poll the Brexit Party failed to pick up a single Westminster seat.


The latest poll suggests a five point Tory lead has been wiped out in the space of a week (see changes below).

YouGov poll 16-17 Sept (changes from 8-9 Sept)

Con 40% (-2)
Lab 40% (+3)
LD 6% (-)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 4% (-1)
Brexit 3% (-)
Plaid 1% (-)
Other 1% (-)

Other polling organisations still have the Tories in front with slender leads.  On current trends it's likely we'll see Labour overtake the Conservatives in opinion polling in a matter of weeks.

Redfield & Wilton poll 15-16 Sept (changes from 1-2 Sept)

Con 41% (-2)
Lab 39% (+2)
LD 8% (-)
Green 5% (-)
SNP 5% (+1)
Other 3% (-)

Opinium poll 9-11 Sept (changes from 26-28 Aug)

Con 42% (+2)
Lab 39% (-1)
LD 6% (-)
Green 4% (+1)
SNP 5% (-)
Other 4% (+2)

Samples sizes were 1,618 (YouGov), 2,500 (Redfield) and 2,001 (Opinium).