BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted since he was crowned PM.  Labour saw their majority more than halved in Greater Manchester, while simultaneously losing a council seat on that patch to a Muslim independent.  They were overtaken by Reform in an Essex council seat (unable to replicate the two gains they made in that county last week) and they entered a Hampshire contest only to finish last with 41 votes.

The Burnham bounce seen in recent polls is clearly not being reflected in actual elections.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

First preferences

Bev Craig (Lab): 251,449 (47.2%) -16.2%

Sian Astley (Ref): 111,928 (21.0%) +13.5%

Geraldine Coggins (Grn): 64,968 (12.2%) +5.3%

Marlon West (Res): 46,289 (8.7%) New

Phil Eckersley (Con): 41,021 (7.7%) -2.7%

Richard Kilpatrick (LDm): 14,702 (2.2%) -2.0%

Marcus Farmer (Ind): 2,969 (0.6%) New

Second round

Bev Craig (Lab): 309,525 (66.3%) 

Sian Astley (Ref): 157,178 (33.7%) 

Lab HOLD

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power cost taxpayers around £4.7million to stage this by-election, in which only one in four voters bothered to show up.  Burnham wants people to embrace devolution, but judging by this turnout, he's got a lot of work to do to.

This election deployed the supplementary vote system, in which voters record their first and second preferences.  If no candidate surpasses a 50 per cent vote share on first preferences, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes are then added to their existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.  Burnham never needed a run-off, as he received first preference votes of 63 per cent in 2017 and 2024, and 67 per cent in 2021.  Step forward to 2026 and things did not look as rosy for his successor.

The second placed Conservative was more than 350,000 votes behind Burnham in 2024, with Reform lagging further behind in fourth place.  This time around, the Tories slumped to fifth place as Reform surged into second and more than halved Labour's majority.  Even Restore Britain beat Kemi Badenoch's candidate, although both parties rescued their £5,000 deposit.  There was disappointment for the Greens, who finished a considerable way behind Reform in third place.

The count was somewhat controversial, in that it took the entirety of Friday to complete and first preference totals were not confirmed until after 19:00.  An initial declaration was expected by mid-afternoon and officials gave no explanation as to the delay.  A final declaration took a further four hours to arrive, with the Labour candidate beating Reform comfortably in the run-off.  Labour topped the poll in all ten of Greater Manchester's local authorities, with Reform second in all but two - Manchester itself, where the Greens finished with more than twice the Reform vote, and Trafford, where the Conservatives were runners-up.  Reform's best vote share was 30.2 per cent in Wigan, but the closest they came to Labour was in Oldham, where the gap between the two parties was 12.2 per cent.

The winning candidate was Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is a member of the Fabian Society and an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

Andy Burnham will be privately concerned about Labour's performance here.  The by-election was partially an indictment of his own mayoralty and partially an indictment on his new government.  Labour's majority crashed from 351,803 to 152,347.  The atrocious turnout meant that the cost of the election was almost £9 for every vote cast, suggesting widespread apathy with the kind of devolution that Burnham is currently pushing.

There was not even a Burnham bounce in the place where he was coined 'King in the North'.

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 09.07.26

14 vacant seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with a further two having been decided earlier this week on the somewhat unorthodox polling day of Tuesday.  The contests were once again fairly spread out across the country, with four in south Wales, three in north Wales, three in London and one each in Scotland, the north east, Midlands and East Anglia.

It was also a variety of defences and free-for-alls.  The Greens were defending all three London vacancies, on account of poor candidate vetting which ended up costing them two of the three.  The Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru were also defending three each, Labour two, Reform one and there were also two free-for-alls triggered by outgoing independents.

It was a mixed week for Labour as lost a seat, held one and gained one.  Their vote share was down in nine of the seats the party contested, against an increase in three.  This is still an improvement on much of the Starmer era, during which they struggled to hold seats and saw vote shares routinely collapsing  by more than 20 percentage points. They finished bottom of the pile in two seats, while the Greens collected the wooden spoon in three.  The Greens appear to have slumped back down to where they were before their media-sponsored boom and are once again vying for fourth place in national polls with the Lib Dems.

Regent's Park, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 574 (32.4%) -0.4%

Grn: 482 (27.2%) -11.1%

Ind: 407 (22.9%) New

Con: 137 (7.7%) -1.5%

Ref: 123 (6.9%) -5.0%

LDm: 51 (2.9%) -3.5%

Lab GAIN from Grn

The first of three London by-elections triggered in humiliating fashion by the Greens.  In this seat they fielded an ineligible winning candidate on May 7, who was unable to take up his new council role as he was already employed by the council as a secondary school teacher.  This is the second by-election the party have caused in this way, having selected a primary school teacher who won in Hackney, also on May 7.  They narrowly held the resulting by-election last month.  While much attention in previous years has been given (quite rightly) to the poor vetting of Reform candidates, not so much attention has been drawn to the shoddy vetting of Zack's crazy gang.  The National Housing Party, who fought this ward in May, dropped out for the by-election.  Only three of the six candidates had Western European names and the winning candidate was Nanouche Umeadi for Labour.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Splott, Cardiff Council

Lab: 765 (40.3%) +6.3%

Grn: 678 (35.7%) +18.4%

Ref: 286 (15.1%) +2.1%

LDm: 114 (6.0%) -8.0%

Con: 54 (2.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd on May 7, one of just nine Labour MSs elected across the whole of Wales.  He had been Cardiff council leader for nine years, but is still undoubtedly most famous for his comments about people flying the Cross of St George - who he described as 'simpletons', 'casual racists' and advised friends to throw Tipp-Ex on cars that displayed the flag.  Just typical of the university-educated bourgeois snobs that dominate the modern Labour party.  The previous election here was a by-election in December 2024, when Labour's majority was slashed by almost 1,200 votes.  Plaid Cymru and Propel did not stand candidates this time, and the absence of the former appears to have benefited Labour.  Labour increased their vote share, but the Greens surged into second place to keep Labour's majority in check.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Argoed & New Brighton, Flintshire County Council

LDm: 614 (39.8%) +3.8%

Ref: 490 (31.7%) New

Pld: 191 (12.4%) -2.3%

Con: 113 (7.3%) New

Lab: 113 (7.3%) -17.2%

Grn: 23 (1.5%) -8.8%

LDm HOLD

The death of the 76-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The Lib Dems won both seats here back in 2022, with Labour a fairly distant second.  Labour crashed to fifth on this occasion, with only the Greens preventing them from collecting the wooden spoon.  It was an impressive new entry by Reform who replaced Labour in the runner up position.  An independent candidate picked up 341 votes in 2022, but did not stand this time.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Connah's Quay Central, Flintshire County Council

Ref: 256 (48.1%) New

Lab: 101 (19.0%) -15.1%

Pld: 71 (13.3%) New

Ind: 59 (11.1%) New

Con: 21 (3.9%) New

Ind: 13 (2.1%) New

Grn: 11 (2.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

The resignation of the controversial incumbent led to this vacancy.  An ex-Labour councillor, he quit the party in 2019 after an internal row, but went on to be re-elected in 2022 as an independent.  In 2024 he was suspended by the council for four months after 'sending sexual messages to a vulnerable resident'.  He was later readmitted, but has now retired due to ill health.  Back in 2022 only Labour and independents stood here, but we had a much more crowded ballot paper this time, topped by Reform in an impressive gain at the first time of asking.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

High Fell, Gateshead Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 564 (40.1%) -4.9%

Lab: 559 (39.7%) +11.2%

LDm: 98 (7.0%) -2.2%

Con: 79 (5.6%) New

Grn: 71 (5.0%) -8.7%

TUS: 36 (2.6%) -1.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform swept to power in Gateshead on May 7, a council that Labour had controlled for the entirety of its 52 year existence.  In High Fell the party won all three seats, but just 11 days later the second placed candidate resigned unexpectedly - citing 'work commitments'.  The new Reform council pledged to mitigate the roughly £20,000 cost of the resulting by-election by having one of its cabinet members forgo their council-funded allowance.  Honourable, but a bit harsh if you're the member earmarked for that loss!  Reform took a bit of a hit regardless, but clung on by the slender margin of just five votes.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Llanrug, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Ind: 394 (57.4%) New

Pld: 262 (38.2%) -61.8%

Ref: 17 (2.5%) New

Con: 6 (0.9%) New

Grn: 4 (0.6%) New

LDm: 3 (0.4%) New

Ind GAIN from Pld

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  She was re-elected unopposed to this ward in 2022, which is situated in one of the most predominantly Welsh-speaking communities in the country.  Voters certainly had a choice this time around, but it was an independent who triumphed in a shock gain from the fake nationalists.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

Clapham Park, Lambeth London Borough Council

Grn: 842 (43.8%) +11.6%

Lab: 799 (41.5%) +5.7%

LDm: 108 (5.6%) -4.5%

Con: 85 (4.4%) -4.2%

Ref: 71 (3.7%) -2.9%

CPA: 12 (0.6%) New

Soc: 6 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Another London Green shitshow.  With all three seats up for grabs on May 7, the top two spots went to Labour candidates, while the third went to a Green candidate who resigned just 11 days later.  She cited 'ill health' that would not allow her to 'do the job justice'.  She clearly did not expect to win and it has cost local taxpayers tens of thousands to replace her.  The SDP contested this seat in May, but are absent this time, passing their wooden spoon to one of the newcomers.  The race to avoid last place was a straight fight between the right-wing Christian Peoples Alliance and the far left Socialist Party of Great Britain.  The Marxists won't be happy with the outcome, with the CPA garnering twice their vote - 12 in all!  The Greens increased their vote share, despite triggering a contest that should have been avoided.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth London Borough Council

LDm: 1,161 (41.7%) +26.4%

Grn: 972 (35.0%) -12.5%

Lab: 421 (15.1%) -7.8%

Con: 119 (4.3%) -3.1%

Ref: 71 (2.6%) -4.2%

CPA: 37 (1.3%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

Probably the most serious Green vetting disaster yet, with two candidates arrested during the local election campaign on suspicion of 'stirring up racial hatred'.  The party suspended one of its candidates in this ward, but it was too late to take her off the ballot paper and she ended up picking up the third council seat in a Green clean sweep.  This was despite Labour having desperately drawn attention to the anti-Semitic social media posts that led to her arrest.  She quickly vacated her seat following the election, creating another costly embarrassment for the Greens in London.  They chose not to select a Muslim candidate for the by-election, but it was a lost cause as the Lib Dems surged from third to first.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✘

Trebanos, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Pld: 223 (51.1%) -18.3%

Ref: 88 (20.2%) New

LDm: 77 (17.7%) New

Lab: 37 (8.5%) -22.1%

Con: 7 (1.6%) New

Grn: 4 (0.9%) New

Pld HOLD

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  She was re-elected to this ward in the 2022 local elections, in a straight head-to-head with Labour.  That election saw Labour lose control of the council for the first time ever, as it slipped into no overall control.  It is currently run by a minority coalition of Plaid and independents.  This by-election presented a routine hold for Plaid, despite a plummeting vote share.  Yet another wooden spoon for Zack's crazy gang - four votes!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Suffield Park, North Norfolk Districk Council

LDm: 485 (65.4%) +4.3%

Ref: 136 (18.3%) New

Con: 88 (11.9%) -14.1%

Grn: 20 (2.7%) -2.9%

Lab: 13 (1.8%) -5.6%

LDm HOLD

The Lib Dem incumbent recently moved to Poland, triggering this by-election.  The seaside resort of Cromer that hosted this contest has become fairly solid ground for the Lib Dems and it was a simple hold for them.  They held this seat in 2023 with more than double the vote of the second placed Conservatives, but it was Reform who finished runners-up on this occasion.  

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Pembroke Dock Market, Pembrokeshire County Council

Con: 143 (36.0%) New

Ind: 100 (25.2%) New

Pld: 79 (19.9%) New

Ref: 48 (12.1%) New

Ind: 11 (2.8%) New

LDm: 9 (2.3%) New

Ind: 7 (1.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

This free-for-all was triggered by the death of the longstanding 78-year-old incumbent.  He was re-elected unopposed in 2022, but it was a busy ballot to succeed him.  They like their independents in these parts, with the council having been governed by independents for the entirety of its 30 year existence.  However, this contest went to the Conservatives, despite the presence of no less than three independents.  One of the independents is reportedly affiliated to Restore Britain, but did not stand under that banner, which is probably just as well considering he has a criminal record and was previously disqualified from public office.  He received 11 votes.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Larkhall, South Lanarkshire Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,150 (35.2%) New

SNP: 975 (29.9%) +1.0%

Lab: 799 (24.5%) -8.5%

Con: 342 (10.5%) -14.0%

Ref GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 4)

Triggered by the death of the Labour incumbent.  She was narrowly re-elected to this ward in 2022, collecting the fourth available council seat after no less than nine rounds of the single transferable vote system.  Her Labour colleague topped the poll on first preferences, while the other two seats went to the Conservatives and SNP.  Prior to this election, Labour were evenly split with the SNP in terms of council representation at 25 seats apiece, but it's Labour that lead the minority administration alongside a handful of Lib Dems and independents.  There were no Libertarian or UKIP candidates this time and, embarrassingly, the Labour candidate resorted to a crowdfunding site to fund his campaign.  A wee bit of party support would have probably had only a negligable bearing on his dreadful third place.  A stunning gain for Reform, which is sure to wind up the left-wing establishment north of the border.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Kinwarton, Stratford-upon-Avon District Council

Con: 507 (36.4%) +2.9%

LDm: 500 (35.9%) -20.8%

Ref: 231 (16.6%) New

Grn: 128 (9.2%) +6.0%

Lab: 28 (2.0%) -4.7%

Con GAIN from LDm

Another globetrotting Lib Dem was responsible for this vacancy, having relocated to Australia.  The Lib Dems won here by a reasonable margin in 2023, following boundary changes.  The Conservatives finished second on that occasion, but appeared to have been aided by the injection of a Reform candidate this time.  A significant and highly unusual swing from the Lib Dems to Reform allowed the Tories to take first place by the slender margin of seven votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Baruc, Vale of Glamorgan Council

Pld: 856 (47.7%) +11.2%

Ref: 429 (23.9%) New

Con: 219 (12.2%) -8.2%

Lab: 179 (10.0%) -15.1%

Grn: 90 (5.0%) -13.1%

LDm: 23 (1.3%) New

Pld HOLD

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent's election to the Senedd on May 7.  Despite being situated in the predominantly English-speaking town of Barry, this ward routinely returns Plaid councillors and the party led second-placed Labour in 2022 by a decent margin.  Plaid managed to hold with an increased majority - almost twice the votes of second placed Reform - while Labour crashed to fourth, indicative of their overall decline across Wales.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

The following contests were held earlier this week, on Tuesday, both stemming from the death of the same councillor.

Haslemere, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,181 (47.8%) -5.4%

Con: 797 (32.3%) -10.7%

Grn: 280 (11.3%) New

Ref: 213 (8.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the sudden death of the incumbent, aged 78.  The Lib Dem councillor had a long career in local government, including spells as mayor of the town of Haslemere and the borough of Waverley.  He also represented the ward of Haslemere West on Waverley Council, triggering an additional by-election (see below).  There hasn't been an election here since 2021, because the county council is being abolished next year and split into two entities.  Labour finished a distant last here in 2021 and did not bother to contest this time.  The Lib Dem and Tory vote share took a hit with new entries from the Greens and Reform.

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Haslemere West, Waverley Borough Council

LDm: 551 (58.6%) -5.4%

Grn: 164 (17.4%) New

Con: 141 (15.0%) -7.0%

Ref: 84 (8.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who also represented Haslemere on Surrey County Council (see above).  Labour finished last here in 2023 and didn't contest this time.  Again, there was a swing to the incoming Greens and Reform from both the Lib Dems and Tories, but not enough to dramatically alter the outcome.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Karl led Richey by two points going into week 8 of their head to head, which closed to one point following Tuesday's double bill.  Their accuracy rate on Thursday wasn't great, but Richey stunned Karl by correctly predicting twice as many results as his opponent.  Richey now leads Karl for the first time, while their combined accuracy rate remains above the 50 per cent mark.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

BY-ELECTIONS 18.06.26

It's an absolute bonanza this week, with no less than three Westminster by-elections and 18 council seats up for grabs.  The full list of results can be found below in three sections, beginning with the big three...

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS

Aberdeen South

Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%

Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%

Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%

Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%

Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%

David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New

Con GAIN from SNP

A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019.  Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion.  The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections.  Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).

Karl - SNP HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP HOLD ✘

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Lara Bird  (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%

Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%

Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%

Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%

Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%

SNP HOLD

This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position.  Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems.  This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election.  It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP.  The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859.  They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Makerfield

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%)  +0.7%

Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%

Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New

Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%

Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%

Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%

Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New

Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%)  New

Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous.  On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997.  Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983.  There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street.  Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

(three seats)

LDm: 2,784 (19.0%)

LDm: 2,746 (18.7%)

LDm: 2,714 (18.5%)

Ref: 1,582 (10.8%)

Ref: 1,573 (10.7%)

Ref: 1,528 (10.4%)

Grn: 237 (1.6%)

Grn: 229 (1.6%)

Lab: 208 (1.4%)

Grn: 204 (1.4%)

LDm HOLD x 3

This election was rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council.  It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away.  The Lib Dems usually romp home here, but the boundaries have been redrawn slightly for this election.  There was a small dip in their vote share, but they held off newcomers Reform with ease.  Intriguingly, Labour only fielded a single candidate.  They needn't have bothered at all.

Karl - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%

Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New

WPB: 609 (18.4%) New

Grn: 200 (6.0%) New

Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%

Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%

Lab HOLD

Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate.  The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents.  Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform.  George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Chelmsford Springfield, Essex County Council

LDm: 3,203 (54.6%) +8.6%

Ref: 1,616 (27.5%) New

Con: 723 (12.3%) -25.1%

Grn: 216 (3.7%) -2.3%

Lab: 110 (1.9%) -7.3%

LDm HOLD

Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council wards, this seat was postponed after the incumbent passed away.  The boundaries were redrawn slightly, which appeared to favour the Lib Dems.  There was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council

(two seats)

Con: 1,084 (24.4%)

Con: 949 (21.3%)

Lab: 470 (10.6%)

Ref: 433 (9.7%)

Lab: 362 (8.1%)

Grn: 353 (7.9%)

Ref: 347 (7.8%)

Grn: 341 (7.7%)

LDm: 63 (1.4%)

LDm: 49 (1.1%)

Con HOLD x 2

This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away.  Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share.  The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent.  The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.

Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔

Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1  ✘

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 496 (33.8%) New

Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%

Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%

LDm: 178 (12.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month.  Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs.  Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 357 (43.4%) New

Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%

Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%

Grn: 71 (8.6%) New

LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way.  There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Rayleigh West, Essex County Council

Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5% LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9% Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3% Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%

Ind: 117 (2.7%) New Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9% Ind: 35 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections.  Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office.  Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below).  Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out.  The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council

Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%

Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%

Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%

LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%

Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%

Ind: 10 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor.  Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor.  This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens.  There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%

Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%

Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%

LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%

Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%

Con HOLD

A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote.  This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council

Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%

Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%

LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%

Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%

Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details).  The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion.  There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out.  Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Mumbles, Swansea Council

Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%

Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%

Ref: 458 (18.3%) New

Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%

Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 118 (4.7%) New

LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd.  The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025.  Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour.  It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Morriston, Swansea Council

Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%

Ref: 882 (31.8%) New

Pld: 569 (21.9%) New

Grn: 107 (4.1%) New

LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%

Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78.  His daughter became his successor, but only just.  She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✘

Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%

Ref: 300 (34.1%) New

Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%

Ind: 78 (8.2%) New

Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%

LDm: 8 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%

Pld HOLD

This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd.  Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%

Ref: 105 (22.0%) New

Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%

Ind: 22 (4.6%) New

YrP: 20 (4.2%) New

Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%

Grn: 11 (2.3%) New

LDm: 2 (0.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month.  This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around.  Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn.  Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%

Ref: 86 (37.4%) New

Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 11 (4.7%) New

Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%

Pld HOLD

The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member.  Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut.  Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

With both lads going mostly like for like this week, Karl's lead was unlikely to be threatened.  Richey bested Karl this week by one seat, cutting his opponent's overall lead down to two.  Both now have more respectable success rates, above 50 per cent.  There are even more council seats up for grabs next week - a whopping 24 - so the numbers are set to change radically again.

PS. This is a bit of fun, but we fully acknowledge the absolute seriousness of these election results.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.02.26

After last week's solitary by-election, there were twice as many seats available this week - including a tricky Labour defence in the West Country.  We had this down as a Labour defeat, but they managed to hold the seat by the slender margin of 16 votes over newcomers Reform.  Labour had won this seat previously in a head to head with the Conservatives, with Labour ahead by 96 votes.  As you can see, there was a huge swing away from both Labour and the Conservatives, but not enough to give Reform the winning edge.

Reform still managed a gain on the night, winning the other by-election in a surprisingly easy win over the defending Plaid Cymru.  Reform came from nowhere to dislodge the phoney nationalists by 260 votes on the small island of Ynys Gybi (Holy Island in English).

Ynys Gybi, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Ref: 603 (43.9%) New

Pld: 343 (25.0%) -3.7%

Lab: 171 (12.5%) -11.3%

Grn: 118 (8.6%) New

Con: 112 (8.2%) -13.1%

Ind: 26 (1.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Pld

Clevedon South, North Somerset Council

Lab: 350 (29.0%) -25.4%

Ref: 334 (27.7%) New

Con: 224 (18.6%) -27.0%

Grn: 197 (16.3%) New

LDm: 100 (8.3%) New

Lab HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.01.26

Five seats were contested on Thursday, with two additional by-elections held in Derbyshire on Tuesday.  In those earlier elections, the Greens finally got a result they could truly celebrate, with an impressive gain from Reform.  Tuesday was a mixed evening for Reform, with the party gaining from Labour in the other seat.  These were also the first electoral outings for Ben Habib's Advance UK, with mixed results.  They did not have a particularly damaging effect on Reform in either seat, but this could change over time.

Labour lost to Reform again on Thursday, losing a seat in north Wales.  Their vote share was down across the board, finishing last in Norfolk and pushed into distant third by Reform in an embarrassing result north of the border.

Despite their gain on Tuesday, the Greens failed to impress elsewhere and their vote share was down in the four other seats the party contested.  This included two wooden spoons that included a particularly disastrous result in which they lost a seat to the Lib Dems.

It was a better week for the Tories, despite the notion of their looming demise gaining traction.  They managed to hold onto two seats, in spite of a decreased vote share in both.  Straws clutched.

Willaston & Thornton, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Con: 997 (53.8%) -7.1%

Lab: 318 (17.2%) -9.3%

Ref: 299 (16.1%) New

LDm: 132 (7.1%) +2.4%

Grn: 107 (5.8%) -2.2%

Con HOLD

The Rissingtons, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 321 (37.5%) New

Con: 268 (31.3%) -11.5%

Ref: 221 (25.8%) New

Grn: 47 (5.5%) -51.7%

LDm GAIN from Grn

Glenrothes West & Kinglassie, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,167 (44.3%) -5.3%

Ref: 725 (27.5%) New

Lab: 413 (15.7%) -16.8%

Con: 182 (6.9%) -4.7%

LDm: 125 (4.7%) +0.9%

SFP: 25 (0.9%) New

SNP HOLD

Leeswood, Flintshire County Council

Ref: 160 (22.3%) New

Ind: 138 (19.2%) -5.6%

Ind: 135 (18.8%) +4.3%

Lab: 87 (12.1%) -48.5%

Ind: 79 (11.0%) New

LDm: 68 (9.5%) New

Con: 34 (4.7%) New

Ind: 17 (2.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Central Wymondham, South Norfolk District Council

Con: 545 (31.1%) -4.6%

Grn: 454 (25.9%) -3.7%

Ref: 363 (20.7%) +15.1%

LDm: 211 (12.0%) New

Lab: 182 (10.4%) -18.8%

Con HOLD

The following contests were held on Tuesday.

Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar, Amber Valley Borough Council

Ref: 595 (45.6%) +24.1%

Lab: 249 (19.1%) -20.8%

Adv: 161 (12.3%) New

Con: 130 (10.0%) -15.3%

Grn: 77 (5.9%) -5.5%

Ind: 50 (3.8%) New

LDm: 42 (3.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Horsley, Derbyshire County Council

Grn: 1,341 (43.6%) +16.7%

Ref: 1,091 (35.5%) +0.6%

Con: 426 (13.9%) -8.9%

Lab: 116 (3.8%) -6.5%

Adv: 57 (1.9%) New

LDm: 43 (1.4%) -2.0%

Grn GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

Adv = Advance UK

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.11.25

Just the five seats were contested on Thursday, with Labour absent among the defending parties.  We expected at least three of these to be holds, with Reform UK a potential gain in Lincolnshire and the Lib Dems a possible upset in North Somerset.  Reform did indeed take the East Lindsey seat from the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems went in completely the wrong direction and crashed to fourth in North Somerset, where the Greens held easily.

It was a good week for the Greens, who also bested the Lib Dems in Canterbury, where they dislodged the incumbents.  They did not impress so much in leafy Oxfordshire, whey they entered as newcomers in lowly fourth place.

Labour stood in four of the five seats, finishing last in two and fourth elsewhere.  In Oxfordshire they could only muster a pathetic eight votes.

Wincheap, Canterbury City Council

Grn: 842 (39.1%) +24.1%

LDm: 518 (24.1%) -12.2%

Ref: 351 (16.3%) New

Lab: 276 (12.8%) -25.5%

Con: 166 (7.7%) -2.6%

Grn GAIN from LDm

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey District Council

Ref: 586 (65.8%) New

Con: 139 (15.6%) -20.7%

Ind: 60 (6.7%) New

Lab: 48 (5.4%) -27.7%

LDm: 42 (4.7%) New

Ind: 15 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Bethel a'r Felinheli, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Pld: 659 (59.2%) -25.0%

Ind: 369 (33.2%) New 

Ref: 76 (6.8%) New 

Con: 9 (0.8%) New

Pld HOLD

Long Ashton, North Somerset Council

Grn: 1,254 (55.7%) +25.1%

Con: 399 (17.7%) -7.2%

Ref: 349 (15.5%) New

LDm: 129 (5.7%) -28.8%

Lab: 121 (5.4%) -4.5%

Grn HOLD

Ridgeway, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 442 (43.1%) -14.9%

Con: 250 (24.4%) -17.6%

Ref: 204 (19.9%) New

Grn: 144 (11.9%) New

Lab: 8 (0.8%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.08.25

An impressive nine seats were up for grabs in eight by-elections on Thursday.  In a marked improvement on recent months, Labour managed to hold both seats they were defending.  They held in bourgeois west London, despite a swing towards both the Tories and Reform.  They also scored a big hold just south of Glasgow, where discontent with the long governing SNP is driving left leaning voters towards Labour.  The Labour candidate appeared to take advantage of an absent independent candidate who took more than a quarter of the vote last time round.

Labour's vote share was down in all the other seats, except for Doncaster, where they campaigned hard to try and gain from Reform.  The vacancy was the result of yet another resignation from one of those elected in May, but Reform managed to extend their vote.  Look out for an embarrassing hard left basement battle between the Trade Unionist Coalition and Galloway's Workers' Party.

The Tories had a woeful night in Surrey, losing all four seats they were defending, three of which to Reform.  The loss of both seats they were defending on Surrey County Council, means they have lost control of the council for the first time since 1997, which slips into no overall control.

Bentley, City of Doncaster Council

Ref: 1,062 (43.8%) +4.2%

Lab: 912 (37.6%) +4.7%

Ind: 169 (7.0%) New

Con: 121 (5.0%) -5.8%

Grn: 79 (3.3%) -5.6%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -3.1%

TUS: 29 (1.2%) -2.0%

WPB: 15 (0.6%) New

Ref HOLD

Alton Amery, East Hampshire District Council

LDm: 407 (54.9%) +1.6%

Ref: 189 (25.5%) New

Con: 145 (19.6%) -9.9%

LDm HOLD

Barrhead, Liboside & Uplawmoor, East Renfrewshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 1,901 (41.9%) +21.7%

SNP: 1,142 (25.1%) -8.3%

Ref: 1,018 (22.4%) New

Grn: 247 (5.4%) +2.0%

Con: 207 (4.6%) -6.2%

AbH: 27 (0.6%) New

Lab HOLD

Abermaw, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Ind: 299 (49.6%) New

Ind: 161 (26.7%) New

Ref: 107 (17.7%) New

Con: 20 (3.3%) -5.1%

PPUK: 11 (1.8%) New

LDm: 5 (0.8%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Cranford, Hounslow London Borough Council

Lab: 951 (40.7%) -12.6%

Con: 679 (29.1%) +10.0%

Ref: 405 (17.3%) New

Grn: 156 (6.7%) -7.5%

LDm: 145 (6.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Addlestone South, Runnymede Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 467 & 414 (32.4%) New

LDm: 356 & 352 (24.7%) +15.5%

Con: 329 & 273 (22.8%) -33.1%

Lab: 146 & 129 (10.1%) -18.1%

Grn: 145 (10.0%) +3.3%

Ref GAIN from Con (two seats)

Addlestone, Surrey County Council

Ref: 931 (34.2%) New

Con: 659 (24.2%) -25.9%

LDm: 473 (17.4%) +9.2%

Grn: 441 (16.2%) +1.9%

Lab: 222 (8.1%) -10.9%

Ref GAIN from Con

Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,656 (38.1%) -6.2%

Con: 1,346 (31.0%) -16.0%

Ind: 659 (15.2%) New

Ref: 551 (12.7%) New

Grn: 101 (2.3%) New 

Lab: 31 (0.7%) -3.6%

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

WPB = Workers Part of Britain

SNP = Scottish National Party

AbH = Abolish Holyrood

PPUK = Pirate Party UK

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.07.25

Nine council seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with action taking place from east to west.

Labour were on the defence in two seats, losing one and holding the other.  In Basildon they lost to Reform who came from nowhere to win fairly comfortably, taking votes from all the other parties.  Labour held in Neath Port Talbot, despite a significant dip in their vote share.  Labour's vote share was down in all nine seats.

The Tories had a mixed week, losing two seats to Reform and gaining two elsewhere, including a Reform defence...

Reform had been defending their third seat in as many weeks, following several resignations within just days or weeks of being elected in May.  They have now lost all three, primarily because the electorate doesn't appreciate being asked to vote twice in a matter of months.  They tumbled to third place in Staffordshire, where the Tories sailed into first for an easy win.

NOTE:  The Denbighshire hold for the Conservatives was previously a multi-seat contest in which the Green Party won the first seat and the Tories second.

St Martin's, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 1,057 (44.6%) New

Lab: 833 (35.1%) -3.2%

Con: 320 (13.5%) -7.1%

Grn: 82 (3.4%) -8.9%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -7.8%

TUS: 26 (1.1%) -6.3%

SDP: 13 (0.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 303 (53.7%) New

Con: 158 (28.0%) -40.7%

Lab: 71 (12.6%) -18.7%

Grn: 32 (5.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Stone House, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 475 (45.2%) New

Lab: 299 (28.4%) -12.8%

Con: 190 (18.1%) -31.4%

Grn: 87 (8.3%) -1.0%

Ref GAIN from Con

Prestatyn Central, Denbighshire County Council

Con: 230 (21.7%) -1.8%

Ind: 223 (21.1%) New

Ref: 195 (18.4%) New

Pld: 152 (14.3%) New

Grn: 144 (13.6%) -35.4%

Lab: 95 (9.0%) -14.5%

LDm: 19 (1.8%) New

Con HOLD

Market Harborough-Logan, Harborough District Council

Con: 410 (31.3%) +4.1%

LDm: 355 (27.1%) -19.8%

Grn: 290 (22.2%) +14.5%

Ref: 190 (14.1%) New

Lab: 44 (3.4%) -9.1%

Ind: 10 (0.7%) -4.8%

CPB: 9 (0.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Sefton Park, Liverpool City Council

Grn: 468 (49.8%) -7.0%

Lab: 211 (22.4%) -11.1%

LDm: 193 (20.5%) +15.4%

Ref: 54 (5.7%) New

Con: 14 (1.5%) -3.0%

Grn HOLD

Baglan, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Lab: 708 (37.5%) -16.8%

Ind: 532 (28.2%) New

Ref: 447 (23.7%) New

Pld: 149 (7.9%) New

Con: 19 (1.0%) -14.1%

Grn: 18 (1.0%) New

LDm: 13 (0.7%) New

Lab HOLD

Pontypridd Town, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 540 (51.6%) -2.2%

Ref: 253 (24.2%) New

Lab: 203 (19.4%) -16.8%

Con: 27 (2.6%) -7.3%

Grn: 23 (2.2%) New

Pld HOLD

Eccleshall & Gnosall, Staffordshire County Council

Con: 1,689 (44.4%) +10.1%

Grn: 1,037 (27.3%) +8.2%

Ref: 938 (24.7%) -10.3%

Lab: 140 (3.7%) -3.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Pld = Plaid Cymru

CPB = Communist Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.04.25

Four by-elections took place on Thursday, with Labour in action in three of them.  In those three contests the Labour vote share bombed by double digits and they lost two seats as a consequence.  In Sutton (London), they dropped to fourth place behind both the Tories and Reform, with the Lib Dems holding the seat.  Elsewhere in London they were stunned by the Greens, who pushed them out in Haringey.

However, the most remarkable gain came in Tameside, the Greater Manchester borough at the centre of the Andrew Gwynne WhatsApp scandal.  Labour's vote share plummeted by almost 30 percentage points as Reform came from nowhere to easily take the seat with almost twice as many votes as Labour.

Teigl, Cyngor Gwynedd (Gwynedd Council)

Pld: 289 (68.6%) -30.4%

Ind: 96 (22.8%) New

Con: 28 (6.7%) New

LDm: 8 (1.9%) New

Pld HOLD (previously elected unopposed)

St Ann's, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,059 (55.4%) +14.1%

Lab: 589 (30.8%) -21.5%

Con: 83 (4.3%) New

LDm: 70 (3.7%) -2.8%

Ref: 69 (3.6%) New

TUS: 34 (1.8%) New

CLg: 8 (0.4%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Sutton Central, Sutton London Borough Council

LDm: 1,291 (55.6%) +17.4%

Con: 327 (14.1%) -10.0%

Ref: 282 (12.2%) New

Lab: 216 (9.3%) -17.4%

Grn: 95 (4.1%) -6.8%

Ind: 84 (3.6%) New

CPA: 24 (1.0%) New

LDm HOLD

Longdendale, Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 911 (46.6%) New

Lab: 489 (25.0%) -28.8%

Con: 242 (12.4%) -9.7%

Grn: 237 (12.1%) -12.0%

Ind: 76 (3.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

CLg = Communist League

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

Ind = Independent