It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland. Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were been carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.
The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests. Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.
This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months. However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three. Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year. However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.
There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce? Time will tell. He is not in place yet. This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.
George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council
(first preference votes)
SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%
Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%
Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%
Ref: 177 (10.1%) New
LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%
Ind: 162 (9.2%) New
Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%
TUS: 31 (1.8%) New
ALS: 13 (0.7%) New
SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)
This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one. They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat. Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.
Karl - SNP GAIN ✔
Rich - SNP GAIN ✔
Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council
Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%
Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%
Ref: 304 (7.3%) New
LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%
Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%
TUS: 31 (0.7%) New
Grn GAIN from Lab
Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February. She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party. It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens. There was no independent candidate this time.
Karl - Grn GAIN ✔
Rich - Lab HOLD ✘
Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council
Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%
Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%
LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%
Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%
Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%
Ref HOLD
A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll. The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result. Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✔
Rich - Con GAIN ✘
Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council
Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%
Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%
Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%
Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%
Ind: 11 (0.9%) New
Grn: 8 (0.7%) New
LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%
Pld GAIN from Ref
Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month. He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August. Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share. Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer. Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✘
Rich - Pld GAIN ✔
Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council
Ref: 297 (44.3%) New
Pld: 167 (23.9%) New
Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%
Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%
LDm: 10 (1.5%) New
Grn: 5 (0.7%) New
Ref GAIN from Lab
Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform. The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'. However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council
Ind: 283 (46.2%) New
Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%
Ref: 47 (7.7%) New
Ind: 24 (3.9%) New
Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%
Ind GAIN from Pld
The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest. Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✘
Rich - Pld HOLD ✘
North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council
Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%
Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%
LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%
Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%
Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%
Ind: 129 (4.8%) New
Grn HOLD
A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place. The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'. If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation. There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✘
Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council
Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%
Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%
Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%
LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%
Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%
Grn HOLD
Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor. Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat. The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Grn HOLD ✔
Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council
Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%
Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%
LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%
Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%
Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%
Grn HOLD
Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate. No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat. An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run. As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names. There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✘
Farnworth, Halton Borough Council
Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6
Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c
Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%
Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%
Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New
Lab HOLD
Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote. A Burnham bounce? The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest. The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council
Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%
Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%
Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%
Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%
LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%
Lab GAIN from Green
Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month. The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction. Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions. The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council. It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs. Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat. A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✔
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔
Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council
Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%
Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%
Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%
Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%
LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%
Grn GAIN from Lab
Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected. The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council. They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night. Oh well!
Karl - Lab HOLD ✘
Rich - Lab HOLD ✘
Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council
Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%
LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%
Ref: 422 (19.1%) New
Grn: 61 (2.8%) New
Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%
Con GAIN from LDm
A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent. The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom. Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?
Karl - LDm HOLD ✘
Rich - LDm HOLD ✘
East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council
(first preference votes)
Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New
LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%
SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%
Ref: 188 (7.2%) New
Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%
Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)
The incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system. The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs. Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even try and defend their seat in 2022 and are absent again this time. Reform are the new entries, while the Libertarians drop out.
Karl - SNP GAIN ✘
Rich - LDm GAIN ✘
Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council
Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%
Ind: 215 (24.2%) New
Ref: 160 (18.0%) New
Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%
Grn: 20 (2.3%) New
Con: 11 (1.2%) New
Lab GAIN from Ind
Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month. He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd. Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✔
Rich - Ind GAIN ✘
Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council
Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%
Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%
Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%
Ref GAIN from Lab
Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds. Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour. However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month. The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council
Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4%
Ref: 260 (16.0%) New
Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1%
Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8%
Grn: 23 (1.4%) New
Pld HOLD
The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result. Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour. There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council
Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%
Ind: 631 (29.0%) New
Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%
Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%
Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%
Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%
Ref HOLD
Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right. The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star. The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway. Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery. Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!
Karl - Ref HOLD ✔
Rich - Grn GAIN ✘
St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council
(two seats)
Ref: 460 (22.2%)
Lab: 436 (21.0%)
Ref: 419 (20.2%)
Lab: 391 (18.8%)
Grn: 146 (7.0%)
Grn: 112 (5.4%)
Ind: 71 (3.4%)
Con: 41 (2.0%)
Ref GAIN from Lab x 1
Lab HOLD x 1
This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away. The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1). Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.
Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘
Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘
Stretton, Staffordshire County Council
Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%
Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%
Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%
Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%
Ref HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office. This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months. Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes. The Lib Dems did not stand this time.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✔
Rich - Con GAIN ✘
Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council
Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2%
Ind: 290 (21.8%) New
Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0%
Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2%
Grn: 109 (8.2%) New
Ref GAIN from Con
This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate. An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories. The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.
Karl - Con HOLD ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council
LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%
Ref: 451 (29.5%) New
Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%
Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%
LDm HOLD
Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly). The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council. The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut. Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time. Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council
Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%
LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%
Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%
Con GAIN from LDm
The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds. There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives. A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✘
Rich - LDm HOLD ✘
Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six. Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy. However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.
There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!
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