Twelve seats were up for grabs on Thursday - four Conservative defences, two each for Labour and the Lib Dems, one each for Plaid Cymru and a local independent group, plus two free-for-alls.
Labour only contested eight seats this week and the apparent bounce they enjoyed last week on the back of Starmer's resignation was muted at best. They collected three wooden spoons, which included tallies of just 14 votes in the Cotswolds and 15 votes in mid-Wales. Their vote share was mostly down, they lost a seat to Reform in Leicestershire and only just held them off for a narrow hold in Shropshire.
Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council
(first preference votes)
SNP: 741 (36.5%) -10.0%
Ref: 465 (22.9%) New
Con: 431 (21.3%) -20.0%
Ind: 150 (7.4%) New
Ind: 132 (6.5%) New
LDm: 56 (2.8%) -9.4%
SFP: 54 (2.7%) New
SNP GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)
Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent, who had been serving as an independent since leaving the Conservatives a year after he was elected in 2022. The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats. Labour and the Greens remain absent from this ward, which helped the SNP to a relatively easy gain, despite a dip in vote share attributable to multiple newcomers in Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents. One of the independents was ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19. He couldn't even beat the other independent and finished fifth on first preferences.
Karl - Con HOLD ✘
Rich - SNP GAIN ✔
Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council
Ind: 1,186 (50.0%) +10.8%
Ref: 541 (22.8%) -2.8%
Lab: 343 (14.5%) +3.4%
Grn: 189 (8.0%) -4.1%
Con: 71 (3.0%) -2.3%
LDm: 27 (1.1%) -0.4%
Ind: 13 (0.5%) New
Ind HOLD
An easy defence for local independent group the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents. The incumbent had been elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent. He resigned from the council in May.
Karl - Ind HOLD ✔
Rich - Ind HOLD ✔
Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council
Ind: 1,365 (35.7%) New
Con: 974 (25.5%) +3.7%
Ref: 778 (20.3%) New
Lab: 564 (14.7%) -5.8%
LDm: 142 (3.7%) -11.9%
Ind GAIN from Con
Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'. He was elected in 2023, having finished third and taking the third and final available seat. Independent candidates have finished in first place here since 2019 and that remained the case on Thursday, with the Conservatives closing on them slightly, despite an impressive new entry from Reform.
Karl - Ind GAIN ✔
Rich - Ind GAIN ✔
St Michael's, Cotswold District Council
LDm: 344 (58.4%) -10.0%
Con: 112 (19.0%) -12.5%
Ref: 91 (15.4%) New
Grn: 27 (4.6%) New
Lab: 15 (2.5%) New
LDm HOLD
Three new entries took votes away from the only parties that contested this seat in 2023, but it was a routine hold for the Lib Dems nonetheless. A change of career led to the resignation of their incumbent, who had a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age. He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years. He simultaneously stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also held on Thursday (see Cirencester Park below).
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council
Con: 928 (37.9%) -25.0%
Ref: 823 (33.6%) New
LDm: 629 (25.7%) -11.4%
Grn: 68 (7.8%) +2.8%
Con HOLD
Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s. He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems. The victorious candidate this time was the deceased's elderly widow, who finished comfortably ahead of second placed Reform despite a significant swing to the newcomers.
Karl - Con HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm GAIN ✘
Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council
LDm: 1,369 (58.7%) +6.6%
Con: 429 (18.4%) +2.9%
Ref: 366 (15.7%) -5.7%
Grn: 111 (4.8%0 -1.2%
Lab: 59 (2.5%) -2.6%
LDm HOLD
The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously. He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025 and his successor held with an expanded share of the vote. Another wooden spoon for Labour.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council
Ref: 403 (28.2%) +21.5%
Con: 386 (27.0%) +4.5%
Lab: 271 (19.0%) -13.4%
LDm: 270 (18.9%) -11.6%
Grn: 97 (6.8%) -0.9%
Ref GAIN from Lab
This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79, which had a huge impact on the council. His passing meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader. The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration. With Labour losing this seat to Reform, the finely balanced numbers remain in the Tories' favour and they can continue with their own minority administration. All three of the rainbow parties saw their vote share take a dip here, with Labour plummeting to third.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - LDm GAIN ✘
Glantwymyn, Powys County Council
Pld: 513 (81.8%) -18.2%
Ref: 63 (10.0%) New
Con: 28 (4.5%) New
LDm: 23 (3.7%) New
Pld HOLD
The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7. Plaid were elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022 and it was a routine hold for them on Thursday, despite the presence of three new entries.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council
Ref: 359 (41.6%) New
LDm: 226 (26.2%) -20.1%
Con: 210 (24.3%) New
Ind: 51 (5.9%) New
Grn: 18 (2.1%) New
Ref GAIN from Ind
A nice result for Reform in rural Wales, turning a defection into a gain. The incumbent vacated the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen. She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election. By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had left Abolish and was elected as an independent. Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd. Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - LDm GAIN ✘
Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council
LDm: 297 (39.7%) -1.1%
Ref: 259 (34.6%) New
Pld: 96 (12.8%) New
Con: 68 (9.1%) -50.2%
Grn: 15 (2.0%) New
Lab: 14 (1.9%) New
LDm GAIN from Con
Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK. Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025. He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper was much more crowded on Thursday. The Tories ended up slumping to fourth, while Reform went straight in at second and lost out by just 38 votes.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - LDm GAIN ✔
Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council
Lab: 590 (42.9%) -32.2%
Ref: 569 (41.4%) New
Con: 104 (7.6%) -10.3%
Grn: 76 (5.5%) New
LDm: 35 (2.5%) -4.4%
Lab HOLD
A narrow 21 vote hold for Labour as they saw their majority crumble with a colossal swing to Reform. The incumbent Labour councillor has been the town's MP for the last two years, but unlike Scotland and Wales - where Holyrood and Senedd members are forced to relinquish council roles - there is no such mechanism for Westminster MPs. He only stood down from the council following his recent appointment as a government whip, and even then only after being 'advised' to do so. His wife continues to serve as a councillor for the same ward.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab HOLD ✔
Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council
Ref: 505 (42.7%) New
Lab: 362 (30.6%) +3.4%
Pld: 190 (16.1%) -1.6%
Con: 58 (4.9%) New
Grn: 49 (4.1%) -6.8%
LDm: 18 (1.5%) New
Ref GAIN from Ind
This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK. And again, the new MS was never elected as a Reform councillor. The journeyman was initially elected in 2017 as an independent, joined the Conservatives a year later and then quit the party the following year. He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year. Regardless of the incumbent's back and forth, Reform turned this contest into an impressive gain at the first time of asking. No independents stood this time, while Labour selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct. Worrying that he finished a strong second.
Karl - Grn GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Karl led Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from the 54 seats contested since May 7. Richey has managed to claw a point back, correctly predicting nine results against Karl's eight and moving back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark.
