14 vacant seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with a further two having been decided earlier this week on the somewhat unorthodox polling day of Tuesday. The contests were once again fairly spread out across the country, with four in south Wales, three in north Wales, three in London and one each in Scotland, the north east, Midlands and East Anglia.
It was also a variety of defences and free-for-alls. The Greens were defending all three London vacancies, on account of poor candidate vetting which ended up costing them two of the three. The Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru were also defending three each, Labour two, Reform one and there were also two free-for-alls triggered by outgoing independents.
It was a mixed week for Labour as lost a seat, held one and gained one. Their vote share was down in nine of the seats the party contested, against an increase in three. This is still an improvement on much of the Starmer era, during which they struggled to hold seats and saw vote shares routinely collapsing by more than 20 percentage points. They finished bottom of the pile in two seats, while the Greens collected the wooden spoon in three. The Greens appear to have slumped back down to where they were before their media-sponsored boom and are once again vying for fourth place in national polls with the Lib Dems.
Regent's Park, Camden London Borough Council
Lab: 574 (32.4%) -0.4%
Grn: 482 (27.2%) -11.1%
Ind: 407 (22.9%) New
Con: 137 (7.7%) -1.5%
Ref: 123 (6.9%) -5.0%
LDm: 51 (2.9%) -3.5%
Lab GAIN from Grn
The first of three London by-elections triggered in humiliating fashion by the Greens. In this seat they fielded an ineligible winning candidate on May 7, who was unable to take up his new council role as he was already employed by the council as a secondary school teacher. This is the second by-election the party have caused in this way, having selected a primary school teacher who won in Hackney, also on May 7. They narrowly held the resulting by-election last month. While much attention in previous years has been given (quite rightly) to the poor vetting of Reform candidates, not so much attention has been drawn to the shoddy vetting of Zack's crazy gang. The National Housing Party, who fought this ward in May, dropped out for the by-election. Only three of the six candidates had Western European names and the winning candidate was Nanouche Umeadi for Labour.
Karl - Grn HOLD ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔
Splott, Cardiff Council
Lab: 765 (40.3%) +6.3%
Grn: 678 (35.7%) +18.4%
Ref: 286 (15.1%) +2.1%
LDm: 114 (6.0%) -8.0%
Con: 54 (2.8%) n/c
Lab HOLD
Triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd on May 7, one of just nine Labour MSs elected across the whole of Wales. He had been Cardiff council leader for nine years, but is still undoubtedly most famous for his comments about people flying the Cross of St George - who he described as 'simpletons', 'casual racists' and advised friends to throw Tipp-Ex on cars that displayed the flag. Just typical of the university-educated bourgeois snobs that dominate the modern Labour party. The previous election here was a by-election in December 2024, when Labour's majority was slashed by almost 1,200 votes. Plaid Cymru and Propel did not stand candidates this time, and the absence of the former appears to have benefited Labour. Labour increased their vote share, but the Greens surged into second place to keep Labour's majority in check.
Karl - Grn GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab HOLD ✔
Argoed & New Brighton, Flintshire County Council
LDm: 614 (39.8%) +3.8%
Ref: 490 (31.7%) New
Pld: 191 (12.4%) -2.3%
Con: 113 (7.3%) New
Lab: 113 (7.3%) -17.2%
Grn: 23 (1.5%) -8.8%
LDm HOLD
The death of the 76-year-old incumbent triggered this contest. The Lib Dems won both seats here back in 2022, with Labour a fairly distant second. Labour crashed to fifth on this occasion, with only the Greens preventing them from collecting the wooden spoon. It was an impressive new entry by Reform who replaced Labour in the runner up position. An independent candidate picked up 341 votes in 2022, but did not stand this time.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Connah's Quay Central, Flintshire County Council
Ref: 256 (48.1%) New
Lab: 101 (19.0%) -15.1%
Pld: 71 (13.3%) New
Ind: 59 (11.1%) New
Con: 21 (3.9%) New
Ind: 13 (2.1%) New
Grn: 11 (2.4%) New
Ref GAIN from Ind
The resignation of the controversial incumbent led to this vacancy. An ex-Labour councillor, he quit the party in 2019 after an internal row, but went on to be re-elected in 2022 as an independent. In 2024 he was suspended by the council for four months after 'sending sexual messages to a vulnerable resident'. He was later readmitted, but has now retired due to ill health. Back in 2022 only Labour and independents stood here, but we had a much more crowded ballot paper this time, topped by Reform in an impressive gain at the first time of asking.
Karl - Ind GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
High Fell, Gateshead Metropolitan Borough Council
Ref: 564 (40.1%) -4.9%
Lab: 559 (39.7%) +11.2%
LDm: 98 (7.0%) -2.2%
Con: 79 (5.6%) New
Grn: 71 (5.0%) -8.7%
TUS: 36 (2.6%) -1.0%
Ref HOLD
Reform swept to power in Gateshead on May 7, a council that Labour had controlled for the entirety of its 52 year existence. In High Fell the party won all three seats, but just 11 days later the second placed candidate resigned unexpectedly - citing 'work commitments'. The new Reform council pledged to mitigate the roughly £20,000 cost of the resulting by-election by having one of its cabinet members forgo their council-funded allowance. Honourable, but a bit harsh if you're the member earmarked for that loss! Reform took a bit of a hit regardless, but clung on by the slender margin of just five votes.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref HOLD ✔
Llanrug, Cyngor Gwynedd Council
Ind: 394 (57.4%) New
Pld: 262 (38.2%) -61.8%
Ref: 17 (2.5%) New
Con: 6 (0.9%) New
Grn: 4 (0.6%) New
LDm: 3 (0.4%) New
Ind GAIN from Pld
Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7. She was re-elected unopposed to this ward in 2022, which is situated in one of the most predominantly Welsh-speaking communities in the country. Voters certainly had a choice this time around, but it was an independent who triumphed in a shock gain from the fake nationalists.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✘
Rich - Pld HOLD ✘
Clapham Park, Lambeth London Borough Council
Grn: 842 (43.8%) +11.6%
Lab: 799 (41.5%) +5.7%
LDm: 108 (5.6%) -4.5%
Con: 85 (4.4%) -4.2%
Ref: 71 (3.7%) -2.9%
CPA: 12 (0.6%) New
Soc: 6 (0.3%) New
Grn HOLD
Another London Green shitshow. With all three seats up for grabs on May 7, the top two spots went to Labour candidates, while the third went to a Green candidate who resigned just 11 days later. She cited 'ill health' that would not allow her to 'do the job justice'. She clearly did not expect to win and it has cost local taxpayers tens of thousands to replace her. The SDP contested this seat in May, but are absent this time, passing their wooden spoon to one of the newcomers. The race to avoid last place was a straight fight between the right-wing Christian Peoples Alliance and the far left Socialist Party of Great Britain. The Marxists won't be happy with the outcome, with the CPA garnering twice their vote - 12 in all! The Greens increased their vote share, despite triggering a contest that should have been avoided.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✘
Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth London Borough Council
LDm: 1,161 (41.7%) +26.4%
Grn: 972 (35.0%) -12.5%
Lab: 421 (15.1%) -7.8%
Con: 119 (4.3%) -3.1%
Ref: 71 (2.6%) -4.2%
CPA: 37 (1.3%) New
LDm GAIN from Grn
Probably the most serious Green vetting disaster yet, with two candidates arrested during the local election campaign on suspicion of 'stirring up racial hatred'. The party suspended one of its candidates in this ward, but it was too late to take her off the ballot paper and she ended up picking up the third council seat in a Green clean sweep. This was despite Labour having desperately drawn attention to the anti-Semitic social media posts that led to her arrest. She quickly vacated her seat following the election, creating another costly embarrassment for the Greens in London. They chose not to select a Muslim candidate for the by-election, but it was a lost cause as the Lib Dems surged from third to first.
Karl - Lab GAIN ✘
Rich - Grn HOLD ✘
Trebanos, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council
Pld: 223 (51.1%) -18.3%
Ref: 88 (20.2%) New
LDm: 77 (17.7%) New
Lab: 37 (8.5%) -22.1%
Con: 7 (1.6%) New
Grn: 4 (0.9%) New
Pld HOLD
Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7. She was re-elected to this ward in the 2022 local elections, in a straight head-to-head with Labour. That election saw Labour lose control of the council for the first time ever, as it slipped into no overall control. It is currently run by a minority coalition of Plaid and independents. This by-election presented a routine hold for Plaid, despite a plummeting vote share. Yet another wooden spoon for Zack's crazy gang - four votes!
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
Suffield Park, North Norfolk Districk Council
LDm: 485 (65.4%) +4.3%
Ref: 136 (18.3%) New
Con: 88 (11.9%) -14.1%
Grn: 20 (2.7%) -2.9%
Lab: 13 (1.8%) -5.6%
LDm HOLD
The Lib Dem incumbent recently moved to Poland, triggering this by-election. The seaside resort of Cromer that hosted this contest has become fairly solid ground for the Lib Dems and it was a simple hold for them. They held this seat in 2023 with more than double the vote of the second placed Conservatives, but it was Reform who finished runners-up on this occasion.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Pembroke Dock Market, Pembrokeshire County Council
Con: 143 (36.0%) New
Ind: 100 (25.2%) New
Pld: 79 (19.9%) New
Ref: 48 (12.1%) New
Ind: 11 (2.8%) New
LDm: 9 (2.3%) New
Ind: 7 (1.8%) New
Con GAIN from Ind
This free-for-all was triggered by the death of the longstanding 78-year-old incumbent. He was re-elected unopposed in 2022, but it was a busy ballot to succeed him. They like their independents in these parts, with the council having been governed by independents for the entirety of its 30 year existence. However, this contest went to the Conservatives, despite the presence of no less than three independents. One of the independents is reportedly affiliated to Restore Britain, but did not stand under that banner, which is probably just as well considering he has a criminal record and was previously disqualified from public office. He received 11 votes.
Karl - Ind GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Larkhall, South Lanarkshire Council
(first preference votes)
Ref: 1,150 (35.2%) New
SNP: 975 (29.9%) +1.0%
Lab: 799 (24.5%) -8.5%
Con: 342 (10.5%) -14.0%
Ref GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 4)
Triggered by the death of the Labour incumbent. She was narrowly re-elected to this ward in 2022, collecting the fourth available council seat after no less than nine rounds of the single transferable vote system. Her Labour colleague topped the poll on first preferences, while the other two seats went to the Conservatives and SNP. Prior to this election, Labour were evenly split with the SNP in terms of council representation at 25 seats apiece, but it's Labour that lead the minority administration alongside a handful of Lib Dems and independents. There were no Libertarian or UKIP candidates this time and, embarrassingly, the Labour candidate resorted to a crowdfunding site to fund his campaign. A wee bit of party support would have probably had only a negligable bearing on his dreadful third place. A stunning gain for Reform, which is sure to wind up the left-wing establishment north of the border.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✘
Rich - Con GAIN ✘
Kinwarton, Stratford-upon-Avon District Council
Con: 507 (36.4%) +2.9%
LDm: 500 (35.9%) -20.8%
Ref: 231 (16.6%) New
Grn: 128 (9.2%) +6.0%
Lab: 28 (2.0%) -4.7%
Con GAIN from LDm
Another globetrotting Lib Dem was responsible for this vacancy, having relocated to Australia. The Lib Dems won here by a reasonable margin in 2023, following boundary changes. The Conservatives finished second on that occasion, but appeared to have been aided by the injection of a Reform candidate this time. A significant and highly unusual swing from the Lib Dems to Reform allowed the Tories to take first place by the slender margin of seven votes.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - LDm HOLD ✘
Baruc, Vale of Glamorgan Council
Pld: 856 (47.7%) +11.2%
Ref: 429 (23.9%) New
Con: 219 (12.2%) -8.2%
Lab: 179 (10.0%) -15.1%
Grn: 90 (5.0%) -13.1%
LDm: 23 (1.3%) New
Pld HOLD
Another vacancy arising from the incumbent's election to the Senedd on May 7. Despite being situated in the predominantly English-speaking town of Barry, this ward routinely returns Plaid councillors and the party led second-placed Labour in 2022 by a decent margin. Plaid managed to hold with an increased majority - almost twice the votes of second placed Reform - while Labour crashed to fourth, indicative of their overall decline across Wales.
Karl - Pld HOLD ✔
Rich - Pld HOLD ✔
The following contests were held earlier this week, on Tuesday, both stemming from the death of the same councillor.
Haslemere, Surrey County Council
LDm: 1,181 (47.8%) -5.4%
Con: 797 (32.3%) -10.7%
Grn: 280 (11.3%) New
Ref: 213 (8.6%) New
LDm HOLD
Triggered by the sudden death of the incumbent, aged 78. The Lib Dem councillor had a long career in local government, including spells as mayor of the town of Haslemere and the borough of Waverley. He also represented the ward of Haslemere West on Waverley Council, triggering an additional by-election (see below). There hasn't been an election here since 2021, because the county council is being abolished next year and split into two entities. Labour finished a distant last here in 2021 and did not bother to contest this time. The Lib Dem and Tory vote share took a hit with new entries from the Greens and Reform.
Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Haslemere West, Waverley Borough Council
LDm: 551 (58.6%) -5.4%
Grn: 164 (17.4%) New
Con: 141 (15.0%) -7.0%
Ref: 84 (8.9%) New
LDm HOLD
Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who also represented Haslemere on Surrey County Council (see above). Labour finished last here in 2023 and didn't contest this time. Again, there was a swing to the incoming Greens and Reform from both the Lib Dems and Tories, but not enough to dramatically alter the outcome.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Karl led Richey by two points going into week 8 of their head to head, which closed to one point following Tuesday's double bill. Their accuracy rate on Thursday wasn't great, but Richey stunned Karl by correctly predicting twice as many results as his opponent. Richey now leads Karl for the first time, while their combined accuracy rate remains above the 50 per cent mark.
