The Newport West by-election will take place on April 4th. The seat was vacated by the death of sitting Labour MP Paul Flynn. It's a 54% Leave-voting seat.
2017 General Election
Paul Flynn (Lab) 22,723
Angela Jones-Evans (Con) 17,065
Stan Edwards (UKIP) 1,100
Morgan Bowler-Brown (PC) 1,077
Sarah Lockyer (LD) 976
Pippa Bartolotti (G) 497
2015 General Election
Paul Flynn (Lab) 16,633
Nick Webb (Con) 13,123
Gordon Norrie (UKIP) 6,134
Simon Coopey (PC) 1,604
Ed Townsend (LD) 1,581
Pippa Bartolotti (G) 1,272
Labour will be defending a majority of 5,658. Between the 2015 and 2017 elections this majority increased by more than 2,000. The UKIP vote crashed in 2017 by 5,000, some of which clearly went to the Tories whose own vote increased by 3,000.
The by-election is scheduled to take place the week after Britain is due to leave the EU. This could be a crucial factor. If we don't leave the voters could severely punish the Tories. Time will tell...
Showing posts with label Paul Flynn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Flynn. Show all posts
Thursday, 28 February 2019
17 SEATS LOST IN UNDER TWO YEARS...
It's still less than two years since the last general election, but many in Labour are desperate for another. Why? Because they mistakenly believe that the momentum from the last general election, where they stripped the Tories of a majority, will continue in the next election. This confidence is misplaced. They are not polling particularly well and they are limping from one PR disaster to another. True, this Tory government won't go down in history as one of the greats, but they are simply not as hapless as HM Opposition.
One small indicator of this is in the current state of the parties. Remember, it is still less than two years since the 2017 general election, but in that time Labour have haemorrhaged a whopping 17 MPs. Admittedly one (Paul Flynn) passed away, but there is no guarantee Labour will win that by-election either. Flynn commanded a 5,658 majority, but two factors could come into play. It's a 54% Leave seat and voters could be unhappy about Corbyn's u-turn on a second referendum. Secondly, what if Chuka and co throw in a candidate and split the Labour vote? It could be very interesting!
The Tories, by contrast, have lost just three MPs in the same period. These all came in the trio of defections to the Independent Group. We've listed Labour's 17 lost MPs below. Williamson will undoubtedly return at some stage, certainly if his idol Corbyn has anything to do with it.
Kelvin Hopkins - suspended by Labour in November 2017 pending an investigation into alleged sexual harassment. Nothing has been heard since and Hopkins is currently listed as an independent.
Jared O'Mara - resigned from Labour in July 2018, nine days after being reinstated following his suspension over allegations of misogyny and homophobia.
John Woodcock - resigned from Labour in July 2018 having been suspended since April 2018 over allegations of sexual harassment.
Frank Field - resigned from Labour in August 2018 in protest over anti-Semitism.
Ivan Lewis - resigned from Labour in December 2018 having been suspended since November 2018 over allegations of sexual harassment.
Fiona Onasanya - expelled from Labour in January 2019 following her conviction for perverting the course of justice.
Paul Flynn - died in February 2019 aged 84.
Luciana Berger - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Ann Coffey - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Mike Gapes - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Chris Leslie - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Gavin Shuker - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Angela Smith - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Chuka Umunna - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Joan Ryan - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to join the Independent Group.
Ian Austin - resigned from Labour in February 2019 in protest over anti-Semitism.
Chris Williamson - suspended by Labour in February 2019 pending an investigation into remarks made about the ongoing anti-Semitism scandal.
One small indicator of this is in the current state of the parties. Remember, it is still less than two years since the 2017 general election, but in that time Labour have haemorrhaged a whopping 17 MPs. Admittedly one (Paul Flynn) passed away, but there is no guarantee Labour will win that by-election either. Flynn commanded a 5,658 majority, but two factors could come into play. It's a 54% Leave seat and voters could be unhappy about Corbyn's u-turn on a second referendum. Secondly, what if Chuka and co throw in a candidate and split the Labour vote? It could be very interesting!
The Tories, by contrast, have lost just three MPs in the same period. These all came in the trio of defections to the Independent Group. We've listed Labour's 17 lost MPs below. Williamson will undoubtedly return at some stage, certainly if his idol Corbyn has anything to do with it.
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| Click to enlarge |
Kelvin Hopkins - suspended by Labour in November 2017 pending an investigation into alleged sexual harassment. Nothing has been heard since and Hopkins is currently listed as an independent.
Jared O'Mara - resigned from Labour in July 2018, nine days after being reinstated following his suspension over allegations of misogyny and homophobia.
John Woodcock - resigned from Labour in July 2018 having been suspended since April 2018 over allegations of sexual harassment.
Frank Field - resigned from Labour in August 2018 in protest over anti-Semitism.
Ivan Lewis - resigned from Labour in December 2018 having been suspended since November 2018 over allegations of sexual harassment.
Fiona Onasanya - expelled from Labour in January 2019 following her conviction for perverting the course of justice.
Paul Flynn - died in February 2019 aged 84.
Luciana Berger - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Ann Coffey - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Mike Gapes - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Chris Leslie - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Gavin Shuker - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Angela Smith - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Chuka Umunna - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to form the Independent Group.
Joan Ryan - resigned from Labour in February 2019 to join the Independent Group.
Ian Austin - resigned from Labour in February 2019 in protest over anti-Semitism.
Chris Williamson - suspended by Labour in February 2019 pending an investigation into remarks made about the ongoing anti-Semitism scandal.
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| Corbyn has a real issue keeping hold of his MPs |
Monday, 18 February 2019
LITTLE OWEN'S SMEAR CAMPAIGN
We should have known the breakaway was a dead cert when little Owen Jones went into smear mode late last night. He singled out Gavin Shuker for particular attention, ironically enough because of his religious beliefs. Shuker is a Christian and abstained on the gay marriage vote. Imagine Owen having a pop at some Muslim MP for doing the same? As if! Double standards wee lad.
However, that wasn't the worst of Owen's Twitter activity yesterday. Within minutes of news breaking of the death of Newport MP Paul Flynn he managed to exploit it with the following...
RIP Paul Flynn, Labour MP for Newport West, who has died at the age of 84. Here he is in 2016 urging his party to stay together. pic.twitter.com/LqVuqzvv56— Owen Jones🌹 (@OwenJones84) 18 February 2019
That's low Owen, even for you lad.
PAUL FLYNN DIES
Paul Flynn, the Labour MP for Newport West, has died aged 84. He was understood to have been ill for some time and had already announced he was stepping down. He was the oldest serving MP after 87-year-old Dennis Skinner.
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