Thursday 28 February 2019


The Newport West by-election will take place on April 4th.  The seat was vacated by the death of sitting Labour MP Paul Flynn.  It's a 54% Leave-voting seat.

2017 General Election

Paul Flynn (Lab) 22,723
Angela Jones-Evans (Con) 17,065
Stan Edwards (UKIP) 1,100
Morgan Bowler-Brown (PC) 1,077
Sarah Lockyer (LD) 976
Pippa Bartolotti (G) 497

2015 General Election

Paul Flynn (Lab) 16,633
Nick Webb (Con) 13,123
Gordon Norrie (UKIP) 6,134
Simon Coopey (PC) 1,604
Ed Townsend (LD) 1,581
Pippa Bartolotti (G) 1,272

Labour will be defending a majority of 5,658.  Between the 2015 and 2017 elections this majority increased by more than 2,000.  The UKIP vote crashed in 2017 by 5,000, some of which clearly went to the Tories whose own vote increased by 3,000.

The by-election is scheduled to take place the week after Britain is due to leave the EU.  This could be a crucial factor.  If we don't leave the voters could severely punish the Tories.  Time will tell...