RESPITE FOR REFORM?

Farage and Yusuf unveil almost 30 new councillors

The very public mudslinging that has wracked Reform UK in recent weeks won't go away, but Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf hoped to get the fledgling party back on track with a major announcement on Monday.  The pair announced 29 council defections to Reform from other parties or having previously been independents or members of local residents' groups.  26 of the new members were in attendance at the press conference.

Some of the defections actually occurred up to a month ago, such as the defections of Conservatives Kirk Harrison, Joanne Monk and Stephen Reed, who announced their defections weeks ago.  Clearly, Monday's event was intended as a distraction from the rumblings within.

Of the defections, 15 were Conservatives, 12 were independents or from local residents' groups (two of which had previously been Conservatives) and one each came from Labour and the Lib Dems.  Most of the new Reformers are county councillors.

These are the new Reform councillors that Farage named...

• Cllr Heather Asker, Uttlesford District Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Atkinson, Ribble Valley Borough Council (was Conservative and leader of the council)
• Cllr Bill Barrett, Ashford Borough Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Felix Bloomfield, Oxfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Mandy Clare, Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council (was Labour, reportedly left in opposition to trans ideology)
• Cllr Stuart Davies, North Somerset Council (was independent)
• Cllr Emma Ellison, Blackpool Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Paul Ellison, Wyre Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Robert Gibson, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Kirk Harrison, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Manzur Hasan, Lincolnshire County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Cathy Hunt, Durham County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Paul Irwin, Buckinghamshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Claire Jonson-Wood, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Reg Kain, Cheshire East Council (was Liberal Democrat)
• Cllr Edward Kirk, Wiltshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Karl Lewis, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Graham McAndrew, Hertfordshire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Iain McIntosh, Powys County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Joanne Monk, Worcestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Geoff Morgan, Powys County Council (was independent)
• Cllr Jan O'Hara, North Northamptonshire Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Christine Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Richard Palmer, Swale Borough Council (was independent)
• Cllr Stephen Reed, North East Derbyshire District Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Dirk Ross, Kent County Council (was independent, previously Conservative)
• Cllr Matthew Salter, Lancashire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Vernon Smith, Gloucestershire County Council (was Conservative)
• Cllr Thomas Sneath, South Holland District Council (was independent)

A further defection was announced in the form of Julian Kirk, who has resigned his seat on Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council in protest at delayed local elections.  He was an independent, having previously been a Conservative councillor.

These announcements came just as another existing Reform councillor quit the party, a member of East Riding Yorkshire Council.  Still, a big net gain for Farage with the news of such a large influx.

There was quite possibly more important news for Reform on Monday.  Convict MP Mike Amesbury has officially stood down as the member for Runcorn and Helsby, triggering the by-election we've all been waiting for.  This will be a huge indicator of Reform's electoral prowess and ability to shake off its recent troubles.  They remain odds on favourites with the bookies to win the Cheshire seat and those odds have now stabilised, having previously been drifting a little in response to the infighting.

There is no date for the Runcorn by-election as yet.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 14.11.24

A dozen seats were up for election on Thursday, with Labour defending nine of them.  Two of those fell - both to the Lib Dems - and in both instances (Edinburgh and Oxfordshire) Labour crashed to third place.  Labour's vote share was down in all the seats it contested, except for two seats in Ayrshire.

Colinton & Fairmilehead, City of Edinburgh Council

(First preference votes)

LDm: 2,683 (36.3%) +23.8%

Con: 1,454 (19.6%) -10.3%

Lab: 1,441 (19.5%) -13.9%

SNP: 800 (10.8%) -6.4%

Grn: 393 (5.3%) -0.1%

Ref: 268 (3.6%) New

Ind: 173 (2.3%) New

Ind: 57 (0.8%) New

SFP: 51 (0.7%) -0.9%

Ind: 50 (0.7%) New

Ind: 22 (0.3%) New

SLP: 9 (0.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab (elected stage TBC)

Calver & Longstone, Derbyshire Dales District Council

Con: 290 (47.6%) +2.2%

Grn: 263 (43.2%) -11.4%

Lab: 56 (9.2%) New

Con GAIN from Grn

Doon Valley, East Ayrshire Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 516 (32.4%) +9.1%

Con: 410 (25.6%) +8.9%

SNP: 379 (23.7%) +2.9%

Ind: 172 (10.7%) New

LDm: 68 (4.2%) New

Grn: 48 (3.0%) New

Ind: 9 (0.6%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage TBC)

Kilmarnock West & Crosshouse, East Ayrshire Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,213 (39.4%) +11.1%

SNP: 1,025 (33.3%) -5.1%

Con: 623 (20.2%) -1.8%

LDm: 145 (4.7%) New

Ind: 75 (2.4%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage TBC)

Shooters Hill, Greenwich London Borough Council

Lab: 1,043 (57.9%) -1.6%

Con: 237 (13.2%) -0.8%

Grn: 185 (10.3%) -4.8%

Ref: 179 (9.9%) +7.1%

LDm: 158 (8.8%) +0.1%

Lab HOLD

Bradwell, Milton Keynes City Council

LDm: 1,129 (56.1%) +2.3%

Lab: 329 (16.3%) -8.6%

Ref: 228 (11.3%) New

Con: 226 (11.2%) -2.5%

Grn: 101 (5.0%) -2.5%

LDm HOLD

Broughton, Milton Keynes City Council

LDm: 1,169 (51.5%) +5.6%

Con: 541 (23.8%) -2.2%

Lab: 360 (15.9%) -5.5%

Grn: 138 (6.1%) +1.2%

Hrt: 61 (2.7%) +0.9%

LDm HOLD

Wanstead Park, Redbridge London Borough Council

Lab: 934 (46.9%) -5.5%

Con: 349 (17.5%) -1.5%

Ind: 284 (14.2%) New

Grn: 222 (11.1%) -7.5%

LDm: 109 (5.5%) -4.6%

Ref: 95 (4.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Hadley & Leegomery, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 778 (45.3%) -11.8%

Con: 539 (31.4%) +16.7%

Ref: 274 (15.9%) New

Grn: 75 (4.4%) -3.1%

LDm: 53 (3.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The Nedge, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 636 (33.8%) -20.6%

Con: 620 (33.0%) +7.0%

Ref: 427 (22.7%)  New

Grn: 84 (4.5%) New

Ind: 61 (3.2%) -6.6%

LDm: 53 (2.8%) -7.0%

Lab HOLD

Whitburn & Blackburn, West Lothian Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,093 (30.9%) -6.7%

SNP: 1,022 (28.9%) -9.8%

Ref: 578 (16.3%) New

Ind: 421 (11.9%) New

Con: 239 (6.7%) -11.7%

LDm: 97 (2.7%) +0.3%

Grn: 92 (2.6%) -0.5%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire District Council

LDm: 403 (31.3%) +24.6%

Con: 383 (29.7%) +9.0%

Lab: 350 (27.2%) -34.2%

Grn: 152 (11.8%) +0.5%

LDm GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

SNP = Scottish National Party

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.09.24

Ten council contests this week, including three in London.  Labour held in Tower Hamlets with an increased vote share, but their vote fell in Hackney where they lost a seat to the Greens.

Elsewhere there were Labour holds in Cambridge, Gateshead and Milton Keynes, but the Labour vote was down in all three.  They gained a seat from the Conservatives on the Isle of Arran with a huge swing, due in part to the absence of an SNP candidate and the Scotting voting system.  The Labour vote was down in seven of the ten by-elections.

The Lib Dems held two of the three seats they were defending, but surrendered a seat to an independent candidate in Norfolk.  The Lib Dems chose not to defend the seat after the sitting councillor passed away, instead endorsing the independent candidate who ended up winning the seat.

Romsey, Cambridge City Council

Lab: 596 (42.8%) -2.7%

Grn: 409 (29.4%) +8.7%

LDem: 249 (17.9%) +3.4%

Con: 138 (9.9%) -9.3%

Lab HOLD

Bridges, Gateshead Borough Council

Lab: 320 (30.6%) -27.7%

LDem: 255 (24.4%) +13.0%

Grn: 253 (24.2%) +9.8%

Ref: 166 (15.9%) New

Con: 53 (5.1%) -10.9%

Lab HOLD

London Fields, Hackney London Borough Council

Lab: 746 (54.1%) -6.9%

Ind: 437 (31.7%) New

Con: 72 (5.2%) New

LDem: 71 (5.2%) -8.0%

WPB: 52 (3.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Stoke Newington, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 1,253 (53.0%) +19.5%

Lab: 945 (40.0%) -19.2%

LDem: 78 (3.3%) New

Con: 74 (3.1%) -4.1%

Ind: 12 (0.5%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Bletchley East, Milton Keynes City Council

Lab: 869 (49.7%) -7.1%

Con: 431 (24.7%) -0.7%

Ind: 147 (8.4%) New

Grn: 143 (8.2%) +2.6%

LDem: 127 (7.3%) +0.5%

Herit: 30 (1.7%) New

Lab HOLD

North Jesmond, Newcastle upon Tyne City Council

LDem: 740 (64.5%) +2.9%

Lab: 234 (20.4%) -6.0%

Grn: 93 (8.1%) -0.2%

Con: 35 (3.1%) -0.6%

Ref: 26 (2.3%) New

PoW: 19 (1.7%) New

LDem HOLD

Freebridge Lynn, Norfolk County Council

Ind: 723 (53.8%) New

Con: 454 (33.8%) +2.8%

Lab: 167 (12.4%) +5.8%

Ind GAIN from LDem

Arran, North Ayrshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 748 (45.4%) +35.4%

Ind: 402 (24.4%) +2.4%

Grn: 340 (20.6%) +10.7%

Con: 90 (5.5%) -27.0%

Ref: 55 (3.3%) New

LDem: 12 (0.7%) New

Lab GAIN from Con (elected at stage 5)

North Walsham Market Cross, North Norfolk Council

LDem: 283 (46.5%) -3.8%

Con: 239 (39.3%) +1.8%

Grn: 53 (8.7%) New

Lab: 33 (5.4%) -6.7%

LDem HOLD

Bow East, Tower Hamlets London Borough Council

Lab: 1,266 (53.3%) +6.1%

Grn: 722 (30.4%) +14.1%

Con: 239 (10.1%) +4.4%

LDem: 148 (6.2%) -2.3%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Herit = Heritage

PoW = Party of Women

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 07.07.22

Eight council seats were up for grabs this week with most of the action taking place in London and the south-east of England.  Labour were defending five, the Conservatives one and a residents association one.  The eighth seat was free-for-all in Epsom.

It was a mixed night for Labour.  They held four of the five defences and won the Epsom free-for-all.  However, they had a rough night in London, slipping to third place as the Lib Dems defeated them in Camden.  Their share of the vote also plummeted in Hackney, where they only just managed to hold off the Greens by 27 votes.

The Tories lost their defence in Mole Valley to the Greens and were also overtaken by the Lib Dems.  There was no evidence of the 'progressive alliance' in any of this week's contests.  In Chesterfield there were no Lib Dem or Tory candidates this time.  The only other absentee was UKIP in Mole Valley.

Hampstead Town, Camden London Borough Council

LDem: 919 (40.9%) +18.6%

Con: 620 (27.6%) -12.3%

Lab: 559 (24.9%) -12.9%

Grn: 104 (4.6%) New

Ind: 44 (2.0%) New

NHP: 1 (0.0%) New

LDem GAIN from Lab

Hollingwood & Inkersall, Chesterfield Borough Council

Lab: 747 (48.5%) +15.2%

Ind: 676 (43.9%) -9.1%

Grn: 118 (7.7%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

West Ewell, Epsom and Ewell Borough Council

RA: 549 (43.4%) -35.3%

Lab: 395 (31.2%) +19.1%

Con: 205 (16.2%) +7.0%

LDem: 117 (9.2%) New

RA HOLD

De Beauvoir, Hackney London Borough Council

Lab: 758 (41.8%) -15.5%

Grn: 731 (40.3%) +18.3%

LDem: 133 (7.3%) -5.0%

Ind: 83 (4.6%) -3.8%

Con: 82 (4.5%) New

WEP: 27 (1.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Woughton & Fishermead, Milton Keynes Council

Lab: 1,355 (73.3%) +3.4%

Con: 340 (18.4%) -1.8%

LDem: 154 (8.3%) -1.6%

Lab HOLD

Charlwood, Mole Valley District Council

Grn: 284 (41.7%) +13.6%

LDem: 210 (30.8%) +19.5%

Con: 166 (24.4%) -22.0%

Lab: 40 (3.1%) New

Grn GAIN from Con

Hatfield Central, Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council

Lab: 599 (53.5%) +8.4%

Con: 273 (24.7%) -9.0%

LDem: 183 (16.3%) -4.9%

ATV: 61 (5.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Worthing West, West Sussex County Council

Lab: 1,262 (52.0%) +5.7%

Con: 795 (32.8%) -6.4%

LDem: 235 (9.7%) +5.3%

Grn: 133 (5.5%) -1.8%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

NHP = National Housing Party

RA = Residents Association

WEP = Women's Equality Party

ATV = Abolish The TV Licence

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 30.06.22

Ten local elections this week - five Conservative defences, two Labour defences and three open contests.  Two of those free-for-alls came in the Outer Hebrides, where two seats were up for grabs following boundary changes.  The council authority used to be called the Western Isles Council, but this was replaced in 1997 with its Gaelic name - Na h-Eileanan Siar - making it the only council authority in the UK with a Gaelic name.  Both contests were dominated and won by independents.  Please note that Scotland uses a form of proportional representation ie. the single transferable vote.

The other free-for-all was a gain for Labour as they took a seat in Middlesbrough previously held by an independent.

It was another difficult night for the Tories as they lost three of the five seats they were defending - two to the Lib Dems (Bernwood and Bridlington North) and one to Labour (Midway).  Labour held both seats they were defending.

Absences this week were UKIP (Bridlington North, Midway), the Liberal Party (Fazakerley), the Conservatives (Fazakerley) and three independents in Bridlington North.

Bernwood, Buckinghamshire County Council

LDem: 1,158 (38.7%) +21.4%

Grn: 1,030 (34.4%) -3.9%

Con: 723 (24.1%) -9.8%

Lab: 85 (2.8%) -7.7%

LDem GAIN from Con

Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh, Na h-Eileanan Siar

(first preference votes)

Ind: 189 (49.3%)

Ind: 181 (47.3%)

Ind: 13 (3.4%)

Ind GAIN (elected at stage 2)

Sgìr’ Ùige agus Càrlabhagh, Na h-Eileanan Siar

(first preference votes)

Ind: 222 (35.4%)

LDem: 128 (20.4%)

Ind: 113 (18%)

SNP: 96 (15.3%)

Grn: 57 (9.1%)

Ind: 11 (1.8%)

Ind: 1 (0.2%)

Ind GAIN (elected at stage 6)

South Croydon, Croydon London Borough Council

Con: 1,306 (42.9%) +2.9%

Lab: 821 (27.0%) -2.1%

LDem: 448 (14.7%) +0.6%

Grn: 269 (8.8%) -5.5%

Ind: 158 (5.2%) New

UKIP: 25 (0.8%) -1.6%

Ind: 18 (0.6%) New

Con HOLD

Bridlington North, East Riding of Yorkshire Council

LDem: 1,950 (57.1%) +16.8%

Con: 1,077 (31.5%) +6.4%

Lab: 171 (5.0%) -4.7%

SDP: 125 (3.7%) New

Yorks: 93 (2.7%) -8.0%

LDem GAIN from Con

Fazakerley, Liverpool City Council

Lab: 1,365 (57.5%) -25.6%

Ind: 638 (26.9%) New

LDem: 290 (12.2%) +8.2%

Grn: 79 (3.3%) -1.0%

Lab HOLD

Berwick Hills & Pallister, Middlesbrough Council

Lab: 361 (56.8%) +26.5%

Ind: 204 (32.1%) New

Con: 53 (8.3%) +2.8%

LDem: 11 (1.7%) New

Grn: 7 (1.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Ollerton, Newark & Sherwood District Council

Lab: 962 (64.9%) +0.6%

Con: 395 26.7%) -9.0%

Ind: 125 (8.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Midway, South Derbyshire District Council

Lab: 600 (52.6%) +14.8%

Con: 540 (47.4%) +9.1%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cleveleys Park, Wyre Borough Council

Con: 721 (53.7%) -9.0%

Lab: 621 (46.3%) +9.0%

Con HOLD

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Con =  Conservative

Lab = Labour

SNP = Scottish National Party

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Yorks = Yorkshire

Ind = Independence

LIB DEMS STUN TORIES IN CHESHAM

The Liberal Democrats have pulled off a stunning result in the Chesham and Amersham by-election, overcoming a 16,223 Tory majority to win the seat with an 8,028 majority of their own.  The Lib Dems had earlier claimed they were 'neck and neck' going into this election, a familiar tactic of theirs.  In Buckinghamshire on Thursday they had in fact underplayed their potential.  Sarah Green's victory has been largely put down to local anger over HS2, which will run directly through the constituency.

The Lib Dems now have 12 MPs at Westminster, a boost to a party that has not had much to shout about since going into government with the Tories eleven years ago. 

The Tories will be licking their wounds having lost a seat they had held since its creation in 1974, but the result will not have given Labour much confidence ahead of the Batley and Spen by-election in a fortnight.  They finished an embarrassing fourth place behind the Greens and lost their deposit.  The Lib Dems' fellow Remainers in Rejoin EU finished last.

Chesham & Amersham by-election

Sarah Green (LDem) 21,517 (56.7%) +30.4%

Peter Fleet (Con) 13,489 (35.5%) -19.9%

Carolyne Culver (Green) 1,480 (3.9%) -1.6%

Natasa Panteli (Lab) 622 (1.6%) -11.2%

Alex Wilson (Reform) 414 (1.1%) New

Carla Gregory (Breakthrough) 197 (0.5%) New

Adrian Oliver (Freedom) 134 (0.4%) New

Brendan Donnelly (Rejoin) 101 (0.3%) New

Chesham & Amersham 2019 general election

Cheryl Gillan (Con) 30,850 (55.4%) -5.3%

Dan Gallagher (LDem) 14,627 (26.3%) +13.3%

Matt Turmaine (Lab) 7,166 (12.9%) -7.7%

Alan Booth (Green) 3,042 (5.5%) +2.5%

The by-election was held following the death of the sitting Conservative MP Cheryl Gillan.

NO FREE PASS IN CHESHAM & AMERSHAM

While all the attention is on the Labour marginal of Batley and Spen (July 1) there is another Westminster seat to be decided before then - Chesham and Amersham on June 17.  The by-election is being held due to the death of the incumbent Conservative, Cheryl Gillan, who died of cancer in April aged 68.  However, unlike the Batley and Spen by-election of 2016, held following the murder of Labour's Jo Cox, there will be no free pass for the Tory candidate here.

In 2016 all the main parties stood aside and did not contest the by-election to decide Cox's successor.  Labour's Tracy Brabin was the clear winner on a ballot on which there was no candidate from the Conservatives, Lib Dems or Greens.  That won't be the case in Tory-held Chesham, where none of the main parties have stood aside.

The Tories go into the by-election defending a comfortable 16,223 majority.  Also contesting the seat will be Reform UK, the previously unheard of Breakthrough Party (a new far left party), the remoaner Rejoin EU and the Freedom Alliance (a party formed to oppose coronavirus restrictions).

Chesham and Amersham candidates

Carolyne Culver (Green)

Brendan Donnelly (Rejoin)

Peter Fleet (Con)

Sarah Green (LDem)

Carla Gregory (Breakthrough)

Adrian Oliver (Freedom)

Natasa Pantelic (Lab)

Alex Wilson (Reform)

Chesham and Amersham, 2019 general election

Cheryl Gillan (Con) 30,850 (55.4%) -5.3%

Dan Gallagher (LDem) 14,627 (26.3%) +13.3%

Matt Turmaine (Lab) 7,166 (12.9%) -7.7%

Alan Booth (Green) 3,042 (5.5%) +2.5%