Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council
(Con defence)
Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent. Elected as a Conservative in 2022, he left the party a year later and had been serving as an independent ever since. The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats. Labour and the Greens did not contest that time and are absent again, which will surely help the SNP. Newcomers to the ballot are Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents, one of which is ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.
Karl - Con HOLD
Rich - SNP GAIN
Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council
(Ind defence)
This is a local independent defence by the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents. The incumbent was elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent. He resigned from the council in May. The ballot paper here remains largely the same as it was in May's local elections, with the same five parties standing, along with an independent and the Horwich group. However, only Labour and the Lib Dems have stuck with the same candidates.
Karl - Ind HOLD
Rich - Ind HOLD
Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council
(Con defence)
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'. He was elected in 2023, having finished third, taking the third and final available seat. Reform are the only newcomers in a ward that has returned independent candidates in first place since 2019.
Karl - Ind GAIN
Rich - Ind GAIN
St Michael's, Cotswold District Council
(LDm defence)
A change of career led to the resignation of the incumbent, who has a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age. He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years. The same councillor also stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also being held today (see Cirencester Park below). In the most recent election here he was elected with more than twice the votes of the only other candidate - a Tory. That was 2023, but there will five on the ballot this time, with Reform, the Greens and Labour joining the fray.
Karl - LDm HOLD
Rich - LDm HOLD
St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council
(Con defence)
Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s. He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems. Reform and the Greens will also be on the ballot this time around. The Tories have selected the deceased's elderly widow as their candidate.
Karl - Con HOLD
Rich - LDm GAIN
Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council
(LDm defence)
The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously. He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025. The ballot paper on Thursday retains the same five parties that stood previously.
Karl - LDm HOLD
Rich - LDm HOLD
Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council
(Lab defence)
Triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79. The Labour man's death had a huge impact on the council, as it meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader. The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration. The Conservatives now hope to impose a minority administration of their own, but the outcome of this by-election will be crucial as it could swing the balance back in favour of the rainbow coalition. The same five parties that contested this seat in 2023 will do so again on Thursday.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - LDm GAIN
Glantwymyn, Powys County Council
(Pld defence)
The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7. The Plaid incumbent was elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022, but the party will have to go up against three opponents this time round - Reform, the Tories and Lib Dems.
Karl - Pld HOLD
Rich - Pld HOLD
Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council
(free-for-all, was Ind)
The incumbent vacates the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform UK - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen. She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election. By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had departed Abolish and was elected as an independent. Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd. Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems, but they will be joined this time by the Greens, Reform, Tories and an independent.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - LDm GAIN
Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council
(Con defence)
Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK. Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025. He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper will be much more crowded on Thursday. The Tories and Lib Dems will be joined by Reform, Plaid, the Greens and Labour.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - LDm GAIN
Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council
(Lab defence)
Multiple by-elections have been triggered in Scotland and Wales recently, due to the election of the incumbents to Holyrood and the Senedd. However, for MPs there is no such requirement to stand down from council roles. Telford elected a new MP in the 2024 general election - Shaun Davies - who had been a local councillor since 2011. He stood down as council leader in order to focus on his Westminster run, but has remained a councillor ever since. Davies, whose wife also serves as a councillor for the same ward, has finally stood down after being appointed a government whip. He may have continued still, but says he was advised not to when he took on his new role in the Commons. Reform and the Greens will be new entries among those trying to prevent a Labour hold.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - Lab HOLD
Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council
(free-for-all, was Ind)
This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK. And again, the new MS was not elected as a Reform councillor. He was elected as an independent in 2017, joined the Conservatives a year later and quit the party the following year. He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year. Reform will be the only newcomers this time, while there are no independents standing. Labour have selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.
Karl - Grn GAIN
Rich - Ref GAIN
Karl leads Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from 54 seats.
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