WHATEVER HAPPENED TO CHANGE UK?

The eleven Change UK founders
back row l-r: Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, Chuka Umunna, Mike Gapes
middle: Angela Smith, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey
bottom: Sarah Wollaston, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry, Joan Ryan

One year ago today a group of eleven MPs formed Change UK, a party whose primary objective was to overturn the EU referendum.  Despite leaving the parties for whom they were elected, all refused to fight by-elections under their new banner.  The party was crushed in the European elections and was dissolved following the general election, at which none were re-elected to Parliament.

So, who faced the electorate and who bottled it?

Chris Leslie 

Leslie was the Labour MP for Nottingham East from 1997, a 57% Remain seat.  He defended the seat and finished fourth, losing his deposit.

Nadia Whittome (Lab) 25,735 (64.3%) -7.1%
Victoria Stapleton (Con) 8,342 (20.9%) -0.8%
Robert Swift (Lib Dem) 1,954 (4.9%) +2.3%
Chris Leslie (Change) 1,447 (3.6%) New
Damian Smith (Brexit) 1,343 (3.4%) New
Michelle Vacciana (Green) 1,183 (3.0%) +1.2%

Gavin Shuker

Shuker was the Labour MP for Luton South from 2010, a 55% Leave seat.  He left Change UK in June, but stood as an independent, finishing third.

Rachel Hopkins (Lab) 21,787 (51.8%) -10.6%
Parvez Akhtar (Con) 13,031 (31.0%) -1.3%
Gavin Shuker (Ind) 3,893 (9.3%) New
Garry Warren (Brexit) 1,601 (3.8%) New
Ben Foley (Green) 995 (2.4%) +1.4%
Mohammed Ashraf (Ind) 489 (1.2%) New
John French (Luton) 268 (0.6%) New

Chuka Umunna

Umunna was the Labour MP for Streatham from 2010, a 79% Remain seat.  He left Change UK in June and joined the Lib Dems later the same month.  He stood for the party in the Cities of London &Westminster, but failed to win.

Nickie Aiken (Con) 17,049 (39.9%) -6.7%
Chuka Umunna (Lib Dem) 13,096 (30.7%) +19.6% 
Gordon Nardell (Lab) 11,624 (27.2%) -11.2%
Zack Polanski (Green) 728 (1.7%) -0.4%
Jill McLachlan (Christian) 125 (0.3%) New
Dirk van Heck (Lib) 101 (0.2%) New

Mike Gapes

Gapes was the Labour MP for Ilford South from 1992, a 57% Remain seat.  He defended the seat, but finished third.

Sam Tarry (Lab) 35,085 (65.6%) -10.2%
Ali Azeem (Con) 10,984 (20.5%) -0.4%
Mike Gapes (Change) 3,891 (7.3%) New
Ashburn Holder (Lib Dem) 1,795 (3.4%) +2.0%
Munish Sharma (Brexit) 1,008 (1.9%) New
Rosemary Warrington (Green) 714 (1.3%) +0.4%

Angela Smith

Smith was the Labour MP for Penistone & Stocksbridge from 2005, a 61% Leave seat.  She left Change UK in June and joined the Lib Dems in September.  She stood for the party in Altrincham & Sale West and finished third.

Graham Brady (Con) 26,311 (48.0%) -3.0%
Andrew Western (Lab) 20,172 (36.8%) -2.0%

Angela Smith (Lib Dem) 6,036 (11.0%) +3.3%
Geraldine Coggins (Green) 1,566 (2.9%) +1.0%
Neil Taylor (Lib) 454 (0.8%) +0.3%
Iram Kiani (Ind) 224 (0.4%) New

Luciana Berger

Berger was the Labour MP for Liverpool Wavertree from 2010, a 65% Remain seat.  She left Change UK in June and joined the Lib Dems in September.  She stood for the party in Finchley & Golders Green, but failed to win.

Mike Freer (Con) 24,162 (43.8%) -3.1%
Luciana Berger (Lib Dem) 17,600 (31.9%) +25.3%
Ross Houston (Lab) 13,347 (24.2%) -19.6%

Ann Coffey

Coffey was the Labour MP for Stockport from 1992, a 53% Remain seat.  She stood down at the election.

Sarah Wollaston

Wollaston was the Conservative MP for Totnes from 2010, a 54% Leave seat.  She left Change UK in June and joined the Lib Dems in August.  She defended her seat as a Lib Dem, but lost.

Anthony Mangnall (Con) 27,751 (53.2%) - 0.5%
Sarah Wollaston (Lib Dem) 15,027 (28.8%) +15.9%
Louise Webberley (Lab) 8,860 (17.0%) -9.9%
John Kitson (Ind) 544 (1.0%) New

Heidi Allen

Allen was the Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire from 2015, a 62% Remain seat.  She left Change UK in June and joined the Lib Dems in October.  She stood down at the election.

Anna Soubry

Soubry was the Conservative MP for Broxtowe from 2010, a 53% Leave seat.  She defended the seat, but finished third.

Darren Henry (Con) 26,602 (48.1%) +1.3%
Greg Marshall (Lab) 21,271 (38.5%) -6.8%
Anna Soubry (Change) 4,668 (8.5%) New
Kat Boettge (Green) 1,806 (3.3%) +2.0%
Amy Dalla Mura (Eng Dem) 432 (0.8%) New
Teck Khong (Ind) 321 (0.6%) New
David Bishop (Elvis) 172 (0.3%) New

Joan Ryan

Ryan was the Labour MP for Enfield North from 1997, a 51% Remain seat.  She stood down at the election.

IN FOCUS: LIVERPOOL

A supposed bastion of the hard left, Liverpool contains four Parliamentary constituencies inside its city boundaries.  A fifth seat - Garston and Halewood - overlaps with neighbouring Knowsley and consists of five Liverpool council wards and three Knowsley wards.  At the 2017 general election all five seats returned Labour MPs, but two of whom have since resigned from the party (Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman).

Population (2018 est):  494,814
City Council:  Labour, since 2010
Composition:  Labour (72 cllrs), Lib Dem (10), Green (4), Liberal (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 88.8%, Asian 4.1%, black 2.6%, mixed 2.5%, Arab 1.2%, other 0.8%
EU referendum:  58% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman, Ind*) majority 35,947
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Wavertree (Luciana Berger, Lib Dem*) majority 29,466

* Elected as Labour MPs

Liverpool has returned a solid slate of Labour MPs since the Labour landslide of 1997.  The last non-Labour MP elected here was the Liberal Democrat David Alton who held the seat of Liverpool Mossley Hill until its abolition in 1997.  All five MPs elected in 2017 had huge majorities and Liverpool Walton is regarded as the safest Labour seat in Britain.  However, of the five members elected in 2017 only two are defending their seats at the forthcoming election.  Two Jewish MPs (Berger and Ellman) were driven out of the party and Stephen Twigg has opted not to stand again.

The recent selection process to replace these MPs was marred by controversy.  Accusations of a stitch-up swirled as outsiders were installed on the ballot paper in favour of local candidates.  One of those in the running was a councillor all the way from Islington no less.  It wouldn't be the first time outsiders were chosen for the ultra safe seats of Liverpool, but this time the stitch-up was largely defeated.  It should be noted that only one of the five incumbents is a Scouser.  In a month's time this is highly likely to have risen to four out of five.

Although the Parliamentary return has been a solid red for more than two decades, contrary to popular opinion the city council has been less so.  The famed hard left have frequently lost control in Liverpool over the years.  Following the last Tory-led council of 1972 the council has actually spent more time out of Labour's control.  Intermittent periods of no overall control was followed by a stable period of Lib Dem control between 1998 and 2010.  Following the electoral backlash against Lib Dem involvement in the coalition government, Labour has asserted itself with an overwhelming majority.  This is currently the longest ever period of Labour control in Liverpool.

A secondary layer of local government here is the Liverpool City Region.  This combined authority also takes in the neighbouring local authorities of Halton, Knowsley, St Helens, Sefton and the Wirral.  The elected mayor is Labour's Joe Anderson, also the leader of Liverpool City Council.

Liverpool voted to Remain in 2016 and all its MPs are Remainers, including three hard Remainers who in 2017 voted against triggering Article 50 (Ellman, Berger and Eagle).  Despite the city's reputation, Jeremy Corbyn found little support among its MPs during the 2016 leadership challenge, four out of five of whom backed Owen Smith.

Liverpool Riverside

Incumbent:  Louise Ellman (Ind), majority 35,947

Born:  Manchester, 1945

First elected:  1997, as a Labour MP

Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50

Notes:  Ellman is Jewish and quit Labour in October 2019 in protest at Labour anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.  This followed multiple attempts to have her deselected.  She became Dame Louise Ellman in 2018.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.  Ellman is not standing in the forthcoming election.

Riverside was held by Labour since its creation in 1983

EU referendum:  73% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Louise Ellman (Lab) 40,599 (84.5%) +17.1%
Pamela Hall (Con) 4,652 (9.7%) +0.1%
Stephanie Pitchers (Green) 1,582 (3.3%) -8.8%
Tom Sebire (Lib Dem) 1,187 (2.5%) -1.4%

General election candidates 2019

Kim Johnson (Lab)

Sean Malkeson (Con)
Tom Crone (Green)

Robert McAllister-Bell (Lib Dem)
David Leach (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Walton

Incumbent:  Dan Carden (Lab), majority 32,551
Born:  Liverpool, 1986
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
Scandals:  Hey Jews

Walton has been held by Labour since 1964.  After the last general election it is the safest Labour seat in Britain.

EU referendum:  52% Leave, only Leave seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Dan Carden (Lab) 36,175 (85.7%) +4.4%
Laura Evans (Con) 3,624 (8.6%) +3.9%
Terry May (Ind) 1,237 (2.9%) New
Kris Brown (Lib Dem) 638 (1.5%) -0.8%
Colm Feeley (Green) 523 (1.2%) -1.2%

General election candidates 2019

Dan Carden (Lab)
Alex Phillips (Con)
David Newman (Lib Dem)
Ted Grant (Green)
Billy Lake (Liberal)

Note:  UKIP came second here with 9% of the vote in 2015, so the absence of a Brexit Party candidate is rather inexplicable.

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Wavertree

Incumbent:  Luciana Berger (Lib Dem), majority 29,466
Born:  London, 1981
First elected:  2010, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Berger is Jewish and quit Labour in February 2019 alongside six other MPs to form Change UK.  She later switched to the Liberal Democrats, but will not defend her seat at the next election.  Instead, she will be contesting the London seat of Finchley & Golders Green.  Berger was privately educated.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.

Wavertree was held by Labour since its creation in 1997

EU referendum:  65% Remain

General election 2017

Luciana Berger (Lab) 34,717 (79.5%) +10.2%
Denise Haddad (Con) 5,251 (12.0%) +2.0%
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem) 2,858 (6.5%) +0.5%

Ted Grant (Green) 598 (1.4%) -3.8%
Adam Heatherington (Ind) 216 (0.5%) New

General election candidates 2019

Paula Barker (Lab)

Catherine Mulhern (Con)

Richard Kemp (Lib Dem)

Kay Inckle (Green)

Adam Heatherington (Brexit)
Mick Coyne (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool West Derby

Incumbent:  Stephen Twigg (Lab), majority 32,908
Born:  London, 1966
First elected:  1997, for Enfield Southgate
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Twigg rose to fame when he unseated cabinet minister Michael Portillo in 1997.  The Tories retook the seat in 2005 and Twigg was out of Parliament until 2010 when he was selected for the safe Labour seat of Liverpool West Derby.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition, but is not standing this time.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Drunk and incapable

West Derby has been held by Labour since 1964

EU referendum:  50.2% Remain

General election 2017

Stephen Twigg (Lab) 37,371 (82.8%) +7.6%
Paul Richardson (Con) 4,463 (9.9%) +3.3%
Steve Radford (Liberal) 2,150 (4.8%) -0.2%
Paul Parr (Lib Dem) 545 (1.2%) -1.1%
Will Ward (Green) 329 (0.7%) -1.7%
Graham Hughes (Ind) 305 (0.7) New

General election candidates 2019

Ian Byrne (Lab)

Tom Bradley (Con)
Steve Radford (Liberal)
Paul Parr (Lib Dem)
Will Ward (Green)
Ray Pearson (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Garston & Halewood

Incumbent:  Maria Eagle (Lab), majority 32,149
Born:  East Yorkshire, 1961
First elected:  1997
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Elected to Parliament at the second attempt (she unsuccessfully contested Crosby in 1992).  Twin sister of fellow Labour MP Angela Eagle.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Expenses scandal

Garston & Halewood has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010.  It largely follows the boundaries of the previous seat of Liverpool Halewood which was held by Labour between 1983-2010.  The new seat absorbed three council wards from neighbouring Knowsley.

EU referendum:  52% Remain

General election 2017

Maria Eagle (Lab) 41,599 (77.7%) +8.6%
Adam Marsden (Con) 9,450 (17.7%) +4.0%
Anna Martin (Lib Dem) 1,723 (3.2%) -1.5%
Lawrence Brown (Green) 750 (1.4%) -2.1%

General election candidates 2019

Maria Eagle (Lab)

Neva Novaky (Con)

Kris Brown (Lib Dem)
Jean-Paul Roberts (Green)
Jake Fraser (Brexit)
Hazel Williams (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

NEXT WEEK:  Bristol

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ELLMAN BINS THE LABOUR PARTY

Ellman becomes not only the second Jewish MP to be driven out of Labour, but the second Jewish female MP to be driven out of the party in Liverpool.  Luciana Berger was subjected to immense pressure and abuse to the extent that she attended the 2018 party conference under a police escort.  She will stand for the Liberal Democrats at the next election, but in London.

Anti-Semitism asides, there does appear to be a pattern emerging on Merseyside.  Ellman was facing a so-called 'trigger ballot' in which she was being forced to fight for her seat in a reselection process.  She had previously made complaints about an influx of hard left Momentum activists into her local CLP (Constituency Labour Party) and was clearly not guaranteed to win the ballot.  Berger would undoubtedly be facing the same process now, if she had stayed in the party.  Another who would have been facing the process was Frank Field, MP for Birkenhead.  He quit Labour last year after being targeted by activists over his support for Brexit.  A vote of no confidence was held by his CLP a month prior to his resignation, albeit this was non-binding.  A fourth MP on Merseyside, Blairite Stephen Twigg, has announced he is standing down at the next election.

It is the selection process for Twigg's seat that is currently creating lots of fuss in Liverpool Labour.  A popular local councillor has been snubbed, while at the same time various potential candidates from around the country have made it onto the shortlist, including a councillor all the way from Islington no less.  A coincidence or the hand of Corbyn and his enforcers?

Merseyside has clearly been singled out for Momentum's purge and it's no surprise as to why.  The region includes some of the safest Labour seats in the country, four of which are in the top ten safest seats of any party - including Ellman and Twigg's.  Therefore, it's prime territory to install your most loyal comrades.  It's a despotic shame that four rebels have fallen to make way for the Soviets, but that's the nature of the beast unleashed by the rise of Corbyn.

Louise Ellman's resignation letter can be seen below (click to enlarge).

GALLERY OF SHAME

Most of the 161 MPs who signed the Church House Declaration yesterday appeared to be quite proud of themselves.  A handful tweeted a picture of themselves...

Heidi Allen (Ind) and Stephen Doughty (Lab)

Kevin Brennan (Lab)

Luciana Berger (Ind), Bambos Charalambous (Lab) and Stephen Doughty (Lab)

Janet Daby (Lab)

Louise Ellman (Lab)

Luciana Berger (Ind) and Rupa Huq (Lab)

Rachael Maskell (Lab)

Chris Matheson (Lab)

Madeleine Moon (Lab)

For a full list of who signed please click here.

WOODCOCK SLAMS 'GASLIGHTING RACIST'

Ex-Labour MP John Woodcock has laid out his typically forthright views on Corbyn's proposed Parliamentary coup.  He's no fan of Corbyn, as you can see...

Woodcock became an independent after he quit Labour, but for the past four weeks has been affiliated with the group of MPs that left Change UK.  This group, known as 'the Independents' is made up of Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Gavin Shuker and Angela Smith - all hardcore Remainers, naturally.  Despite this, it does appear likely that Woodcock would put his hatred of Corbyn above his hatred of Brexit and most likely abstain in the no confidence vote.  It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Luciana Berger could also abstain, such is the level of shit Corbyn's followers put her through.  These abstentions could be crucial if Boris is to survive the vote.

CHANGE UK SPLITS

'Change UK' met today and its eleven MPs have decided to part ways.  This follows its European election disaster in which it spent shedloads of cash and finished eighth with not a single seat to show for its efforts.  The split itself was thought to have been triggered by a public spat between Anna Soubry and Change leader Heidi Allen.

Soubry will now take Heidi's place as leader while four of her colleagues stay put - Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie and Joan Ryan.

Those who have quit Change UK will return to being just plain old independents - Chuka, Heidi, Luciana Berger, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and Sarah Wollaston.

By-elections anyone?

WHO WERE THE ORIGINAL BREXIT BLOCKERS?

It's been a while since the House of Commons voted to trigger Article 50.  It's been over two years in fact, we know that because we should have left the EU after two years and we're still in!  While the vote went overwhelmingly in favour of triggering Article 50, there were still 114 MPs who voted against it.  The breakdown by party was as follows.

SNP - 50
Labour - 47 (in defiance of party whips)
Lib-Dem - 7
SDLP - 3
Independents - 3
Plaid - 2
Conservative - 1 (Ken Clarke)
Green - 1

The 47 Labour MPs who voted to block Brexit are listed below, along with how their constituencies voted.  Leave constituencies are in bold.

Heidi Alexander - Lewisham East 65% Remain
Rushanara Ali - Bethnal Green & Bow 69% Remain
Graham Allen - Nottingham North 64% Leave
Rosena Allin-Khan - Tooting 74% Remain
Luciana Berger - Liverpool Wavertree 65% Remain
Ben Bradshaw - Exeter 55% Remain
Kevin Brennan - Cardiff West 56% Remain
Rupa Huq - Ealing Central & Acton 71% Remain
Lyn Brown - West Ham 52% Remain
Chris Bryant - Rhondda 60% Leave
Karen Buck - Westminster North 66% Remain
Dawn Butler - Brent Central 57% Remain
Ruth Cadbury - Brentford & Isleworth 57% Remain
Ann Clwyd - Cynon Valley 57% Leave
Ann Coffey - Stockport 53% Remain
Neil Coyle - Bermondsey & Old Southwark 74% Remain
Ian Murray - Edinburgh South 78% Remain
Thangam Debbonaire - Bristol West 79% Remain
Mary Creagh - Wakefield 63% Leave
Stella Creasy - Walthamstow 67% Remain
Stephen Doughty - Cardiff South & Penarth 57% Remain
Jim Dowd - Lewisham West & Penge 65% Remain
Maria Eagle - Garston & Halewood 52% Remain
Louise Ellman - Liverpool Riverside 73% Remain
Paul Farrelly - Newcastle-under-Lyme 62% Leave
Vicky Foxcroft - Lewisham Deptford 76% Remain
Mike Gapes - Ilford South 57% Remain
Lilian Greenwood - Nottingham South 54% Remain
Helen Hayes - Dulwich & West Norwood 77% Remain
Meg Hillier - Hackney South & Shoreditch 77% Remain
Peter Kyle - Hove 67% Remain
David Lammy - Tottenham 76% Remain
Rachael Maskell - York Central 61% Remain
Kerry McCarthy - Bristol East 53% Remain
Catherine McKinnell - Newcastle-upon-Tyne North 57% Leave
Madeleine Moon - Bridgend 50.28% Leave
Stephen Pound - Ealing North 54% Remain
Virendra Sharma - Ealing Southall 58% Remain
Tulip Siddiq - Hampstead & Kilburn 76% Remain
Andy Slaughter - Hammersmith 69% Remain
Jeff Smith - Manchester Withington 75% Remain
Owen Smith - Pontypridd 53% Remain
Jo Stevens - Cardiff Central 68% Remain
Stephen Timms - East Ham 54% Remain
Catherine West - Hornsey & Wood Green 75% Remain
Alan Whitehead - Southampton Test 50.59 Remain
Daniel Zeichner - Cambridge 74% Remain

2-4-6-8 IT'S NOT A SPLIT

The will-they-won't-they saga continues.  Various news outlets are now putting figures on how many Labour MPs will quit.  The Daily Mail says 'up to ten', the Express 'eight' and the Guardian says 'six or more'.  They all agree the 'split' is 'imminent', although none can agree on when it will happen.  The Mail claimed it might happen on Friday, the Express says it may happen on Monday.  ITV are very specific and claim it 'may' happen on the 27th of Feb.

Give us a break!  Whether or not these half a dozen(ish) MPs walk out and form their own Remain party, it is hardly a split.

If we take the upper estimate of ten quitters - that's less than 4 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour party and would give the new party less MPs than the Liberal Democrats.  The Lib Dems have their origins in an earlier Labour split, but their current pathetic Parliamentary numbers should be fair warning for anyone trying to set up a new party, let alone something that could possibly challenge the two-party monopoly.  If Chuka and co are serious about prolonging their Parliamentary careers why don't they just join the referendum-ignoring Lib Dems?  After all that is their game - trying to overturn the referendum result.

Whatever happens, whenever it happens, or if it doesn't happen at all (good chance of the latter) - it's hardly a split.

Potential quitters (according to various sources)

Chuka Umunna, of course (but as a leader?)

Ian Austin, having recently voted against extending Article 50 would he join a clique of hardcore Remainers?

Luciana Berger, no-one would blame her for walking away

Angela Eagle, failed leadership bottler of 2016

Peter Kyle, hasn't even served a full Parliamentary term yet

Chris Leslie, long-term critic of Corbyn

Alison McGovern, snowflake who categorically denied on Friday she would be quitting

Gavin Shuker, who?

Ruth Smeeth, another Jewish MP under the cosh

Angela Smith, ardent remoaner embarrassingly turned away from Labour HQ with 'Losers Vote' petition

Owen Smith, failed leadership challenger and another ardent remoaner

A lesson from history Chuka!