BY-ELECTIONS 30.07.26

We had a big by-election this week in Greater Manchester, with Labour currently riding much higher in the polls than they have done in a long time.  Once again, we were looking for evidence of a 'Burnham bounce', which so far has been pretty muted since he was crowned PM.  Labour saw their majority more than halved in Greater Manchester, while simultaneously losing a council seat on that patch to a Muslim independent.  They were overtaken by Reform in an Essex council seat (unable to replicate the two gains they made in that county last week) and they entered a Hampshire contest only to finish last with 41 votes.

The Burnham bounce seen in recent polls is clearly not being reflected in actual elections.

There were no head-to-head forecasts again this week.  Karl is now out of hospital, but bed bound and under strict orders to rest for a few more days.  His full recovery is expected to last months.

Greater Manchester Mayor

First preferences

Bev Craig (Lab): 251,449 (47.2%) -16.2%

Sian Astley (Ref): 111,928 (21.0%) +13.5%

Geraldine Coggins (Grn): 64,968 (12.2%) +5.3%

Marlon West (Res): 46,289 (8.7%) New

Phil Eckersley (Con): 41,021 (7.7%) -2.7%

Richard Kilpatrick (LDm): 14,702 (2.2%) -2.0%

Marcus Farmer (Ind): 2,969 (0.6%) New

Second round

Bev Craig (Lab): 309,525 (66.3%) 

Sian Astley (Ref): 157,178 (33.7%) 

Lab HOLD

This one needs little introduction, except to say that a certain opportunistic narcissist vacated the role two years into a four year term to take advantage of his party leader's self-inflicted troubles.  Burnham's hunger for power cost taxpayers around £4.7million to stage this by-election, in which only one in four voters bothered to show up.  Burnham wants people to embrace devolution, but judging by this turnout, he's got a lot of work to do to.

This election deployed the supplementary vote system, in which voters record their first and second preferences.  If no candidate surpasses a 50 per cent vote share on first preferences, there is a run-off between the top two candidates.  Supplementary votes are then added to their existing totals and the candidate with the most votes overall wins.  Burnham never needed a run-off, as he received first preference votes of 63 per cent in 2017 and 2024, and 67 per cent in 2021.  Step forward to 2026 and things did not look as rosy for his successor.

The second placed Conservative was more than 350,000 votes behind Burnham in 2024, with Reform lagging further behind in fourth place.  This time around, the Tories slumped to fifth place as Reform surged into second and more than halved Labour's majority.  Even Restore Britain beat Kemi Badenoch's candidate, although both parties rescued their £5,000 deposit.  There was disappointment for the Greens, who finished a considerable way behind Reform in third place.

The count was somewhat controversial, in that it took the entirety of Friday to complete and first preference totals were not confirmed until after 19:00.  An initial declaration was expected by mid-afternoon and officials gave no explanation as to the delay.  A final declaration took a further four hours to arrive, with the Labour candidate beating Reform comfortably in the run-off.  Labour topped the poll in all ten of Greater Manchester's local authorities, with Reform second in all but two - Manchester itself, where the Greens finished with more than twice the Reform vote, and Trafford, where the Conservatives were runners-up.  Reform's best vote share was 30.2 per cent in Wigan, but the closest they came to Labour was in Oldham, where the gap between the two parties was 12.2 per cent.

The winning candidate was Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council.  Raised on a Protestant estate in Belfast, she relocated to Manchester aged 18 in order to study politics and modern history.  Unlike her predecessor, Craig held down some proper jobs before progressing into local government.  She is a member of the Fabian Society and an unabashed lesbian (no great surprise when you see her) and prides herself on being 'one of the most visible lesbians in politics', despite the fact no-one outside of Manchester had ever heard of her prior to this costly by-election.

Andy Burnham will be privately concerned about Labour's performance here.  The by-election was partially an indictment of his own mayoralty and partially an indictment on his new government.  Labour's majority crashed from 351,803 to 152,347.  The atrocious turnout meant that the cost of the election was almost £9 for every vote cast, suggesting widespread apathy with the kind of devolution that Burnham is currently pushing.

There was not even a Burnham bounce in the place where he was coined 'King in the North'.

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday, four of which were triggered by the deaths of the incumbents.

Rumworth, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,458 (42.3%) New

Lab: 1,054 (30.6%) -4.6%

Grn: 517 (15.0%) -34.7%

Ref: 279 (8.1%) -1.7%

Con: 60 (1.7%) -0.8%

Ind: 45 (1.3%) New

LDm: 37 (1.1%) -1.8%

Ind GAIN from Lab

This ward has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims (primarily Pakistanis) in the UK.  Its Muslim incumbent stepped down in order to take on other employment, triggering a diverse contest in which most of the candidates are either black or Asian - the exceptions being the Lib Dem, Green and one of two independents.  Labour were defending the last of three seats they won here in 2023, having lost the other two seats already.  The first one went to a Muslim independent in 2024, while the Greens triumphed here on May 7.  The Greens slumped to third this time around, while Labour lost their last remaining seat in this ward to another Muslim independent.

Hedge End South, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,086 (46.1%) +2.7%

Con: 589 (25.0%) +4.1%

Ref: 443 (18.8%) -8.2%

Grn: 199 (8.4%) -0.3%

Lab: 41 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

The death of the 72-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The longstanding councillor died following an unspecified illness.  Eastleigh is rock solid Lib Dem territory, a local authority they have controlled outright since 1994.  They cemented this reputation in the borough by gaining both Westminster seats from the Conservatives in 2024.  Hedge End is a growing town just to the east of Southampton, separated from the city by the M27 and a thin wedge of farmland.  This was a routine hold for the Lib Dems, who finished with almost twice the number of votes as the second placed Conservatives.  Just 41 votes and a wooden spoon for the Labour candidate!

Bro'r Llynnoedd, Isle of Anglesey County Council

Pld: 551 (48.5%) +13.8%

Ref: 446 (39.3%) New

Con: 93 (8.2%) -14.1%

Grn: 45 (4.0%) New

Pld HOLD

A sparsely populated ward on the island Welsh speaking locals call Ynys Môn.  This contest was triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who died suddenly from causes not made public.  Plaid gained outright control on Anglesey in the 2022 local elections, but their numbers have dwindled since, through a series of defections and by-election losses.  The council officially slipped into no overall control following a council by-election in February, which Plaid lost to Reform.  There were no independent candidates this time, which both Plaid and Reform appear to have benefited from.

Long Sutton, South Holland District Council

Ref: 866 (56.3%) New

Con: 445 (28.9%) -20.7%

Grn: 227 (14.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This semi-rural ward includes the small market town of Long Sutton.  Another 71-year-old perished in order to create the vacancy, again with no cause of death provided.  He had topped the poll here in 2023, with one of the Conservative candidates winning the second seat.  The Tories controlled South Holland from 2003 until last December, when a defection tipped the council into no overall control.  They now run the council as a minority administration, but could have regained outright control had they won this seat.  A significant swing to Reform denied them the opportunity.  Despite its name and location, South Holland is actually located in the East Anglian county furthest from the Netherlands.  

Great Dunmow North, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 705 (50.5%) +11.9%

Ref: 390 (27.9%) New

Ind: 138 (9.9%) -29.5%

Lab: 126 (9.0%) -3.3%

LDm: 37 (2.7%) -7.1%

Con GAIN from Ind

Yet another contest triggered by the death of the incumbent.  The 77-year-old Residents for Uttlesford councillor passed away following a short illness.  This local residents group ended a seven year stint of outright control on the council back in February, when two of its number defected to Reform UK.  They remain at the helm, but as a minority administration.  Had they won this by-election, they would have got back to within one seat of outright control, but as it happened they were overtaken by both the Tories and Reform.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.07.26

We had a county-wide election this week, but it wasn't for the council.  The position of Police and Crime Commissioner in Norfolk was up for grabs...

Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner

Colin Sutton (Ref) 32,647 (26.7%) New

Matthew Taylor (Con) 18,348 (15.0%) -18.9%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 16,907 (13.8%) -2.0%

Marcus Pearcey (Ind) 16,402 (13.4%) New

Beth Jones (Lab) 14,192 (11.6%) -23.6%

Mark Buckton (Res) 13,319 (10.9%) New

Christopher Brown (LDm) 10,499 (8.6%) -6.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Labour won this election in 2024, with a relatively narrow victory over the Conservatives.  This time the result wasn't even close and Labour crashed to fifth.  Police and Crime Commissioners are being abolished in two years time, with the responsibilities being transferred into the remit of elected mayors.  This announcement last year led to a backlash from Norfolk's PCC, who quit Labour in anguish, accusing the government of a 'lack of consultation'.  She continued in the role as an independent, before vacating the post last month due to a family illness.  She also left her role as a district councillor (see below).  There were a few new faces on the PCC ballot paper this time, all stumping up £500 for the privilege.  All four parties saved their deposits last time, as it proved this time around - every single candidate surpassed the required five per cent mark in order to get their deposit back.  This included Restore Britain, who were hoping for a decent result as Rupert Lowe's constituency falls entirely within the catchment area.  Any hopes they may have had of denting Reform's chances were not realised, as Reform won with an impressive majority of 14,299 (compared to Labour's 1,888 majority in 2024).  Reform's first ever PCC is highly respected former detective Colin Sutton, who led various high profile murder investigations during a long career.  This has been a costly election to the taxpayer, with a bill of £2million that on a 17.1 per cent turnout worked out at more than £16 per vote!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

There were also eight council seats to be decided this week, all of which fell inside England and all but one sit across a central belt from Staffordshire in the west to Norfolk in the east.  The only exception is a seat in the Rushmoor borough of Hampshire.

Dereham Toftwood, Breckland District Council

Con: 458 (45.8%) -1.7%

Ref: 369 (36.9%) New

Lab: 172 (17.2%) -35.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who simultaneously vacated her post as Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner (see above).  This ward was a straight head-to-head last time between Labour and the Conservatives.  Reform had won all three of the previous council by-elections held in Breckland, but their Turkish candidate could not persuade enough voters in this semi-rural ward to swing it for her party.  She did however enjoy a huge swing from Labour that dumped the incumbent party in last place and delivered a Conservatives gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Ramsey & Bury, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 506 (29.7%) -17.3%

Ind: 417 (24.5%) New

Con: 412 (24.2%) -5.2%

LDm: 126 (7.4%) +0.6%

Grn: 123 (7.2%) +1.2%

Lab: 118 (6.9%) -4.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform gained this seat from the Conservatives in last year's local elections, but the winner recently stood down, citing 'personal circumstances'.  Last year's defeated Conservative sought to get her former seat back at this by-election, but slipped to third place.  She was narrowly beaten by an independent, who took a significant swing from Reform.  Labour finished third here last year, but collect the wooden spoon this time around.  No Burnham bounce here!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Kidlington West, Cherwell District Council

LDm: 1,028 (58.8%) +13.7%

Ref: 331 (18.9%) -4.3%

Con: 232 (13.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 158 (9.0%) -5.4%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem incumbent, who gained this seat from the Conservatives in 2021.  She resigned for 'personal reasons', primarily to spend more time with her family.  The Lib Dems were very keen to hold here, as their coalition majority hung by a thread.  They did so with ease, garnering three times as many votes as second placed Reform, while their coalition partners the Greens picked up the wooden spoon.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Old Catton, Norfolk County Council

Con: 973 (34.6%) +8.5%

Grn: 921 (32.7%) +14.0%

Ref: 561 (19.9%) -10.1%

Lab: 147 (5.2%) -10.6%

LDm: 100 (3.6%) -5.6%

Res: 98 (3.5%) New

Loon: 13 (0.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent less than four weeks after he was elected in May, citing 'poor health'.  Did he not expect to win?  A very poor show that left his colleague with what turned out to be an insurmountable task of holding the seat.  The former Conservative councillor selected by Reform was heavily defeated by her old party, while the Greens pushed her into third.  This was the first ever local election fought in the name of Restore Britain, but it was disastrous.  Their candidate pulled out shortly after the nomination papers were handed in, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.  It's not going well is it, Rupert?

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Grn: 664 (41.2%) +3.4%

Ref: 479 (29.7%) +2.9%

Lab: 213 (13.2%) +3.7%

Con: 208 (12.9%) -3.2%

LDm: 37 (2.3%) New

YrP: 11 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

As often tends to be the case with the Banana Republic of Peterborough, this by-election was mired in controversy before a single vote had been cast.  Triggered by the resignation of a young native lady who was elected as a Labour councillor in the 2024 elections, she quit the party a year later after accusing her comrades of 'sustained bullying and marginalisation'.  Why was she targeted?  She simply called for CCTV to be installed in the city's taxis.  This led to her facing accusations of 'racism' from Muslim comrades, who also tarred her family with the same brush.  In resigning her seat recently, she accused the council of 'systemic cover-ups', which Labour's Muslim council leader denied.  As Peterborough wards go, this one is not overtly Muslim, but it did opt for the Greens in May.  An independent candidate who stood here in that election dropped out, while there was a rare outing for the Fruit and Nutters.  The Corbyn shitshow finished last with just 11 votes, while the party that stole their far left thunder roared into the lead and garnered more than three times the number of votes received by Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Wellington, Rushmoor Borough Council

Lab: 408 (42.1%) +9.2%

Con: 199 (20.5%) -3.0%

Ref: 196 (20.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 118 (12.2%) New

LDm: 49 (5.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The retirement of the Labour incumbent triggered this contest.  He had served as a Rushmoor councillor on and off since 1976 and his successor scored an impressive hold for a party that is not used to expanding their vote share and moving further ahead of their rivals.  An independent candidate who stood here in May did not stand this time.  This area was historically a Conservative stronghold, but this all changed in 2024 when Labour took control of the council and won the local Aldershot Westminster constituency for the first time in history.  Labour lost outright control of the council following several defections last year, but they remain the largest party and run it as a minority administration.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Himley & Swindon, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 298 (43.2%) -21.0%

Ref: 187 (27.1%) New

Ind: 129 (18.7%) New

Lab: 28 (4.1%) New

Grn: 22 (3.2%) New

Ind: 16 (2.3%) -12.0%

LDm: 10 (1.4%) -20.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 82-year-old Tory incumbent, who had been council leader as recently as 2024.  He was re-elected to this ward in 2023, having bested the only two other candidates - a Lib Dem and an independent.  It was a much more crowded ballot paper this time and the votes were dispersed very thinly in this sparsely populated ward on the edge of the Black Country.  The Conservatives managed to hold off Reform by more than 100 votes.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Manor, Stafford Borough Council

Lab: 481 (36.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 414 (31.2%) New

Con: 237 (17.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 197 (14.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

As with the previous seat, this was triggered by the death of the 82-year-old incumbent.  The longstanding councillor had been re-elected most recently in 2023, when she topped the poll with both ward seats up for grabs.  She and her Labour colleague easily saw off the Conservatives, while a solitary Green candidate collected the wooden spoon.  The Greens finished last again this time, while there was a significant swing from both Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Richey has extended his lead further, with Karl suffering another poor performance.  Karl has now dropped below the 50 per cent accuracy rate and at best can only close the gap next week as there are only five by-elections.

BY-ELECTIONS 18.06.26

It's an absolute bonanza this week, with no less than three Westminster by-elections and 18 council seats up for grabs.  The full list of results can be found below in three sections, beginning with the big three...

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS

Aberdeen South

Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%

Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%

Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%

Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%

Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%

David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New

Con GAIN from SNP

A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019.  Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion.  The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections.  Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).

Karl - SNP HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP HOLD ✘

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Lara Bird  (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%

Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%

Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%

Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%

Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%

SNP HOLD

This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position.  Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems.  This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election.  It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP.  The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859.  They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Makerfield

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%)  +0.7%

Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%

Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New

Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%

Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%

Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%

Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New

Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%)  New

Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous.  On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997.  Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983.  There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street.  Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

(three seats)

LDm: 2,784 (19.0%)

LDm: 2,746 (18.7%)

LDm: 2,714 (18.5%)

Ref: 1,582 (10.8%)

Ref: 1,573 (10.7%)

Ref: 1,528 (10.4%)

Grn: 237 (1.6%)

Grn: 229 (1.6%)

Lab: 208 (1.4%)

Grn: 204 (1.4%)

LDm HOLD x 3

This election was rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council.  It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away.  The Lib Dems usually romp home here, but the boundaries have been redrawn slightly for this election.  There was a small dip in their vote share, but they held off newcomers Reform with ease.  Intriguingly, Labour only fielded a single candidate.  They needn't have bothered at all.

Karl - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%

Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New

WPB: 609 (18.4%) New

Grn: 200 (6.0%) New

Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%

Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%

Lab HOLD

Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate.  The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents.  Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform.  George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Chelmsford Springfield, Essex County Council

LDm: 3,203 (54.6%) +8.6%

Ref: 1,616 (27.5%) New

Con: 723 (12.3%) -25.1%

Grn: 216 (3.7%) -2.3%

Lab: 110 (1.9%) -7.3%

LDm HOLD

Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council wards, this seat was postponed after the incumbent passed away.  The boundaries were redrawn slightly, which appeared to favour the Lib Dems.  There was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council

(two seats)

Con: 1,084 (24.4%)

Con: 949 (21.3%)

Lab: 470 (10.6%)

Ref: 433 (9.7%)

Lab: 362 (8.1%)

Grn: 353 (7.9%)

Ref: 347 (7.8%)

Grn: 341 (7.7%)

LDm: 63 (1.4%)

LDm: 49 (1.1%)

Con HOLD x 2

This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away.  Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share.  The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent.  The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.

Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔

Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1  ✘

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 496 (33.8%) New

Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%

Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%

LDm: 178 (12.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month.  Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs.  Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 357 (43.4%) New

Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%

Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%

Grn: 71 (8.6%) New

LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way.  There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Rayleigh West, Essex County Council

Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5% LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9% Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3% Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%

Ind: 117 (2.7%) New Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9% Ind: 35 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections.  Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office.  Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below).  Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out.  The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council

Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%

Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%

Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%

LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%

Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%

Ind: 10 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor.  Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor.  This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens.  There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%

Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%

Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%

LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%

Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%

Con HOLD

A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote.  This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council

Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%

Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%

LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%

Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%

Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details).  The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion.  There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out.  Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Mumbles, Swansea Council

Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%

Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%

Ref: 458 (18.3%) New

Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%

Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 118 (4.7%) New

LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd.  The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025.  Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour.  It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Morriston, Swansea Council

Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%

Ref: 882 (31.8%) New

Pld: 569 (21.9%) New

Grn: 107 (4.1%) New

LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%

Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78.  His daughter became his successor, but only just.  She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✘

Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%

Ref: 300 (34.1%) New

Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%

Ind: 78 (8.2%) New

Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%

LDm: 8 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%

Pld HOLD

This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd.  Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%

Ref: 105 (22.0%) New

Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%

Ind: 22 (4.6%) New

YrP: 20 (4.2%) New

Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%

Grn: 11 (2.3%) New

LDm: 2 (0.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month.  This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around.  Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn.  Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%

Ref: 86 (37.4%) New

Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 11 (4.7%) New

Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%

Pld HOLD

The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member.  Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut.  Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

With both lads going mostly like for like this week, Karl's lead was unlikely to be threatened.  Richey bested Karl this week by one seat, cutting his opponent's overall lead down to two.  Both now have more respectable success rates, above 50 per cent.  There are even more council seats up for grabs next week - a whopping 24 - so the numbers are set to change radically again.

PS. This is a bit of fun, but we fully acknowledge the absolute seriousness of these election results.

BY-ELECTIONS 26.02.26

It was a night dominated by claims of illegal 'family voting', but in the end the result was not even close.  The Green Party overturned a 13,413 Labour majority in Gorton and Denton, leading second placed Reform by 4,402 votes.  It was the first ever Green victory in a Westminster by-election and followed months of media hype about a 'Green surge'.  Labour trailed in third, a disastrous turnaround which will heap more pressure on the embattled Keir Starmer.

The sectarian tactics deployed by the Green Party is set to dominate the conversation, with more evidence on public display on polling day itself.  Hannah Spencer was filmed dancing in the street to south Asian music in the morning, while later in the day Green activists were filmed flying the flags of Pakistan and Palestine on a major traffic junction.

The result may be grim for Labour, but it's far worse for Britain.

Gorton and Denton Parliamentary By-Election Result

Hannah Spencer (Grn) 14,980 (40.6%) +27.4%

Matt Goodwin (Ref) 10,578 (28.7%) +14.6%

Angeliki Stogia (Lab) 9,364 (25.4%) -25.4%

Charlotte Cadden (Con) 706 (1.9%) -6.0%

Jackie Pearcey (LDm) 653 (1.8%) -2.0%

Sir Oink A-Lot (Loon) 159 (0.4%) New

Nick Buckley (Adv) 154 (0.4%) New

Joseph O'Meachair (REU) 98 (0.3%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 47 (0.1%) New

Sebastian Moore (SDP) 46 (0.1%) New

Hugo Wils (CmL) 29 (0.1%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Updates

04:31

The Green Party has won the Gorton and Denton by-election.

04:28

A result is now imminent.

04:19

Green candidate Hannah Spencer has finally arrived at the count, accompanied by party leader Zack Polanski.  His presence indicates a Green victory.

03:54

Reform candidate Matt Goodwin has arrived, but without Nigel Farage.  This strongly suggests a Green victory.

03:47

Counting is complete.

03:45

A result appears to be close, but there is no sign of either candidate for Reform or the Greens yet.

03:42

Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia enters the count with Lucy Powell and they are met by complete silence from their activists.

03:38

Labour's Lucy Powell appears to be conceding again: "I wanted Angeliki Stogia to be my colleague in Parliament.  But I think what is really clear is that there is a big majority in this constituency that hasn’t voted for Reform.  And on the day the Greens have managed to win that argument that they were best placed to do that."

03:15

An unnamed Labour MP has sent the BBC's Chris Mason the following text message: "Everyone knew the only chance to beat both the Greens and Reform was Andy Burnham.  Keir clearly thought he would look tough blocking him but with the disastrous few weeks and terrible policy across a number of areas we've managed to isolate not only our base but the broad coalition we rely on to win elections.  Keir needs to own this.  He's out of chances.  You can't claim to be the party of unity when you’re adopting the divisive policies of Reform.  Vote Labour to stop Reform rings hollow when you’re mimicking them."

02:55

Labour's deputy leader says: "It is clear that the Green Party have turned out their vote more tonight than we have".  Lucy Powell's statement is the strongest hint yet that Labour have conceded defeat to the Greens.

02:53

A Green source tells the BBC: "We are very confident of a win."

02:14

Sky News reports that an unnamed Labour MP has attacked the decision to block Andy Burnham from standing.  The MP reportedly said: "Keir has got away, for too long, with saying he hadn’t been involved when decisions taken have gone wrong.  This time he, Keir, must own this catastrophe."

02:11

All future updates will relate to Gorton and Denton only.

02:08

As we predicted, the Lib Dems have held the council by-election in Southampton, albeit narrowly over Labour.

01:59

A Green source quoted by the BBC, also suggests Labour will finish third in Gorton and Denton.

01:46

A Reform source quoted by the BBC, suggests that Labour will finish third in Gorton and Denton.

01:38

36,903 votes were cast, which is a few hundred more than the 36,560 that turned out in Gorton and Denton for the 2024 general election.  Voter turnout was almost identical.  In 2024 it was 47.8 per cent, compared to 47.6 in this by-election.  This is an impressive turnout for a by-election.

01:09

Labour sources have told the Press Association: "Early signs at the count indicate the Greens have been able to turn out support in a way they wouldn't be able to replicate at a general election".

00:53

The returning officer has addressed the count and says that a result is not expected until after 04:00, but with the potential for recounts it could be much later.

00:32

Reform's Nadhim Zarhawi has told Sky News that he does not expect his current party to win.  He said industrial levels of voter fraud and sectarian politics meant that either the Greens or Labour would triumph.

00:21

A result is reportedly expected some time between 03:00 and 04:00, but if the result is particularly tight there could be recounts.

00:03

Manchester City Council has hit back at claims of 'family voting' in polling stations, saying that no such issues have been reported: "It is extremely disappointing that Democracy Volunteers have waited until after polls have closed to make such claims."

23:45

Labour sources have told the Press Association that over a thousand party activists descended on the constituency today and 'spoke to more voters that we have done in any previous by-election polling day'.  They added that they expect the result to be 'very close'.

23:26

Reform's David Bull tells BBC Newsnight that Labour would have successfully held Gorton and Denton with Andy Burnham as their candidate.

23:18

More on that report from the Democracy Volunteers from Times political editor Steven Swinford: "Family voting is an illegal practice where two voters use one polling booth at the same time. It can involve husbands instructing their wives how to vote."

23:06

Newspaper columnist Dan Hodges has spent the day in Gorton and Denton.  He says that both Reform and Labour think the Greens will win.  Reform sources think they will come second, while Labour believe they will be second.

22:25

It's being reported that activists from the NGO Democracy Volunteers have observed 32 instances of illegal 'family voting' in 15 polling stations in Gorton and Denton today.

22:01

The polls have now closed in tonight's two by-elections - the Westminster by-election in Gorton and Denton and the council by-election in Shirley, Southampton.

Council by-elections

One council by-election also took place on Thursday, down on the south coast.  Shirley is the birthplace of Rishi Sunak, but there was to be no Tory surprises here.  As we predicted, the seat was held by the Lib Dems, but only by a margin of 21 votes.  Labour finished a surprisingly strong second, including an ultra rare increase in vote share.

Shirley, Southampton City Council

LDm: 975 (27.3%) -11.9%

Lab: 954 (26.7%) +2.7%

Ref: 681 (19.0%) New

Grn: 539 (15.1%) +7.5%

Con: 288 (8.1%) -16.1%

Ind: 122 (3.4%) -0.3%

TUS: 16 (0.4%) -0.9%

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 15.01.26

The first council contests of 2026 have taken place, with Labour on the defence in York and the Lib Dems in Hampshire.  Labour's vote plummeted in York, but they were starting from a very strong position in a largely middle class ward.  As such, the size of their existing majority gave them a comfortable cushion against challengers from Reform, the Greens and Lib Dems.  Despite all the recent media propagation in favour of Polanski and the (non-existent) 'Green surge', the Lib Dems benefited from a much bigger swing from Labour than the Greens did.

Recent controversial Tory defections to Reform did not appear to damage their electoral appeal - judging by this brace, which included an impressive gain from the Lib Dems in Hampshire.  Labour finished last here, garnering a pathetic 35 votes.

Bridgemary, Gosport Borough Council

Ref: 604 (42.5%) New

LDm: 575 (40.5%) -8.0%

Con: 207 (14.6%) -23.7%

Lab: 35 (2.5%) -10.8%

Ref GAIN from LDm

Heworth, City of York Council

Lab: 1,096 (36.7%) -27.3%

Ref: 601 (20.1%) New

Grn: 591 (19.8%) +4.4%

LDm: 528 (17.7%) +10.2%

Con: 118 (4.0%) -9.1%

Ind: 49 (1.6%) New

Lab HOLD

BY-ELECTIONS 23.10.25

Plaid Cymru have taken the Senedd seat of Caerphilly in a crucial indicator of how next May's Senedd elections could pan out.

Labour's red wall in south Wales has never fallen, not even in the 2019 Brexit election that saw many seats in the red wall across northern England turn Tory blue.  However, recent council by-elections had seen Reform taking several Labour seats in the Valleys that make up the sturdiest red wall of all.

Reform were also expected to take the Senedd seat of Caerphilly on Thursday, but polls and bookmakers called it wrong.  The most recent poll conducted in the constituency found Reform leading on 42 per cent, closely followed by Plaid Cymru on 38 per cent.  Labour were way back on just 12 per cent.  Bookies put even more faith in Reform gaining this seat, making them odds on favourites, considerably ahead of Plaid, but miles in front of Labour who were languishing way back on 33-1.

It would have been a colossal victory for Reform, having previously finished last in 2021 with less than two per cent of the vote.  They still surged past every other party in this by-election - except for one.  Plaid Cymru emerged victorious with a fairly comfortable margin over Reform of 3,848.  Labour finished a distant third, as predicted, but they will take solace in the fact that their left-wing comrades in Plaid were the victors and not the dreaded Reform.

Labour had held Caerphilly since the dawn of what was then known as the Welsh Assembly.  Its first AM (now termed MS) was Ron Davies, the leader of Welsh Labour who led the charge for devolution back in the late 90s, before an infamous incident on Clapham Common in London brought him down in disgrace.

The most recent MS for Caerphilly was Hefin David, who was found dead in a suspected suicide two months ago.  In the 2021 Senedd election he secured Labour's biggest ever majority in the constituency, which has now been overturned by the fake nationalists of Plaid Cymru.  And check out that huge swing from Labour to Reform...

Caerphilly, Senedd

Lindsay Whittle (Pld) 15,961 (47.4%) +19.0%

Llŷr Powell (Ref) 12,113 (36.0%) +34.2%

Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.0%) -34.9%

Gareth Potter (Con) 690 (2.0%) -15.3%

Gareth Hughes (Grn) 516 (1.5%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 497 (1.5%) -1.2%

Anthony Cook (Gwd) 117 (0.3%) New

Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.2%) New

Previous result

Hefin David (Lab) 13,289 (46.0%) +10.7%

Delyth Jewell (Pld) 8,211 (28.4%) -1.1%

Steven Mayfield (Con) 5,013 (17.3%) +8.4%

Stephen Jones (AbAs) 1,119 (3.9%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 787 (2.7%) +1.3%

Tim Price (Ref) 495 (1.7%) New

There were also seven council contests taking place on Thursday, with Labour defending two seats - one each in south Birmingham and Colchester, Essex.  They were defeated in Birmingham by the Lib Dems, who were very much in the ascendancy overall.  The Moseley ward was previously contested for two seats, which is why the vote shares look a little off.  It is very much a left-leaning 'progressive' ward, which is why Reform and the Tories were nowhere to be seen.

Labour managed to cling on in Colchester, holding off a Lib Dem challenge, but saw their vote share plummet.  The Labour vote share was down in every seat contested, with the exception of Glastonbury in Somerset, where they were newcomers.

Reform made a gain in Portsmouth at the hands of an outgoing independent, garnering more than five times the vote of the second placed Tories.  Overall, Reformers would probably be disheartened by this election night, but the truth is that they are still taking the electoral landscape by storm.  From the other six council seats contested, they finished second in four at the first time of asking.

The Tories held a seat in Cambridgeshire, but lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Somerset.  The Lib Dems really were the success story of these council by-elections, gaining three and holding another.  There is still little evidence of a Green bounce, as per opinion polling, although they did marginally increase their vote share in three of five seats contested.

Moseley, Birmingham City Council

LDm: 1,634 (34.7%) -11.9%

Lab: 1,149 (24.4%) -14.1%

Ind: 923 (19.6%) New

Grn: 474 (10.1%) +1.5%

Ref: 345 (7.3%) New

Con: 101 (2.4%) -4.1%

Ind: 80 (1.7%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

New Town & Christ Church, Colchester City Council

Lab: 800 (29.7%) -27.6%

LDm: 657 (24.4%) +12.1%

Ref: 600 (22.3%) New

Grn: 401 (14.9%) +5.3%

Con: 200 (7.4%) -8.9%

Ind: 38 (1.4%) -3.1%

Lab HOLD

Whittlesey North West, Fenland District Council

Con: 483 (47.5%) -9.8%

Ref: 346 (34.1%) New

Ind: 127 (12.5%) New

Lab: 60 (5.9%) -16.2%

Con HOLD

Paulsgrove, Portsmouth City Council

Ref: 1,770 (64.2%) New

Con: 311 (11.3%) -4.0%

Lab: 289 (10.5%) -4.1%

LDm: 239 (8.7%) +5.7%

Grn: 143 (5.3%) +1.9%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Glastonbury, Somerset Council

LDm: 882 (36.4%) -0.7%

Ref: 523 (21.6%) New

Con: 506 (20.9%) -9.7%

Grn: 480 (19.8%) -7.5%

Lab: 35 (1.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Dunster, Somerset Council

LDm: 1142 (49.6%) +8.4%

Ref: 666 (28.9%) New

Con: 449 (19.5%) -22.8%

Lab: 44 (1.9%) -4.2%

LDm GAIN from Con

Milton & Tamarside, Torridge District Council

LDm: 428 (37.5%) New

Ref: 355 (31.1%) New

Con: 191 (16.7%) New

Ind: 101 (8.8%) New

Grn: 67 (5.9%) -23.9%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Gwd = Gwlad

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

AbAs = Abolish the Welsh Assembly

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 09.10.25

Seven by-elections were held this week, including a Wednesday contest that was easily held by the Lib Dems.  The following day the Lib Dems held again, this time in Somerset, and also took a seat from the Conservatives in neighbouring Devon.

This week was a good test of how the Tory party conference had played out to the electorate, with three seats being defended - one each in the north of England, south of England and Midlands.  They lost all three.  Furthermore, their vote share was down in all seven seats, including double digit drops in four of them.  In all three losses they slumped to third place.

Reform took two of the Tory seats, while they held in Northamptonshire.  If you recall, Reform were struggling to hold seats following the local elections, but they have now held their last four defences.

Labour's only defence was a seat in Lancashire, in which the outgoing councillor had resigned from the party last year before continuing as an independent.  Labour failed to retake the seat, losing out to residents' group Our West Lancashire and being pushed into third by Reform.

Widcombe & Lydcombe, Bath and North East Somerset Council

LDm: 769 (44.4%) -11.8%

Grn: 267 (15.4%) +0.6%

Lab: 212 (12.2%) +4.7%

Ref: 206 (11.9%) New

Con: 149 (8.6%) -12.8%

Ind: 83 (4.8%) New

Ind: 45 (2.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Lloyds & Corby Village, North Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 754 (38.5%) +2.1%

Lab: 635 (32.4%) -11.8%

Grn: 371 (18.9%) +9.7%

LDm: 113 (5.8%) +1.5%

Con: 86 (4.4%) -1.5%

Ref HOLD

Skelton East, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council

Ref: 839 (65.3%) New

Lab: 247 (19.2%) -10.7%

Con: 179 (13.9%) -29.4%

LDm: 19 (1.5%) -1.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

Kenn Valley, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 1,116 (50.4%) +11.0%

Ref: 512 (23.1%) New

Con: 212 (9.6%) -19.0%

Ind: 181 (8.2%) New

Grn: 122 (5.5%) -13.9%

Lab: 59 (2.7%) -9.9%

Ind: 12 (0.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Aughton & Holborn, West Lancashire Borough Council

Ind: 704 (35.5%) +10.4%

Ref: 478 (24.1%) +18.6%

Lab: 385 (19.4%) -21.3%

Con: 295 (14.9%) -8.7%

Grn: 78 (3.9%) -1.1%

LDm: 42 (2.1%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Bretforton & Offenham, Wychavon District Council

Ref: 357 (43.5%) New

Grn: 213 (25.9%) New

Con: 165 (20.1%) -35.4%

Lab: 33 (4.0%) -25.9%

LDm: 31 (3.8%) -10.8%

Ind: 12 (1.5%) New

Ind: 10 (1.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Yateley West, Hart District Council

(held on Wednesday)

LDm: 1,101 (54.7%) -5.9%

Ref: 562 (27.9%) New

Con: 348 (17.3%) -8.2%

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.08.25

An impressive nine seats were up for grabs in eight by-elections on Thursday.  In a marked improvement on recent months, Labour managed to hold both seats they were defending.  They held in bourgeois west London, despite a swing towards both the Tories and Reform.  They also scored a big hold just south of Glasgow, where discontent with the long governing SNP is driving left leaning voters towards Labour.  The Labour candidate appeared to take advantage of an absent independent candidate who took more than a quarter of the vote last time round.

Labour's vote share was down in all the other seats, except for Doncaster, where they campaigned hard to try and gain from Reform.  The vacancy was the result of yet another resignation from one of those elected in May, but Reform managed to extend their vote.  Look out for an embarrassing hard left basement battle between the Trade Unionist Coalition and Galloway's Workers' Party.

The Tories had a woeful night in Surrey, losing all four seats they were defending, three of which to Reform.  The loss of both seats they were defending on Surrey County Council, means they have lost control of the council for the first time since 1997, which slips into no overall control.

Bentley, City of Doncaster Council

Ref: 1,062 (43.8%) +4.2%

Lab: 912 (37.6%) +4.7%

Ind: 169 (7.0%) New

Con: 121 (5.0%) -5.8%

Grn: 79 (3.3%) -5.6%

LDm: 39 (1.6%) -3.1%

TUS: 29 (1.2%) -2.0%

WPB: 15 (0.6%) New

Ref HOLD

Alton Amery, East Hampshire District Council

LDm: 407 (54.9%) +1.6%

Ref: 189 (25.5%) New

Con: 145 (19.6%) -9.9%

LDm HOLD

Barrhead, Liboside & Uplawmoor, East Renfrewshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 1,901 (41.9%) +21.7%

SNP: 1,142 (25.1%) -8.3%

Ref: 1,018 (22.4%) New

Grn: 247 (5.4%) +2.0%

Con: 207 (4.6%) -6.2%

AbH: 27 (0.6%) New

Lab HOLD

Abermaw, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Ind: 299 (49.6%) New

Ind: 161 (26.7%) New

Ref: 107 (17.7%) New

Con: 20 (3.3%) -5.1%

PPUK: 11 (1.8%) New

LDm: 5 (0.8%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

Cranford, Hounslow London Borough Council

Lab: 951 (40.7%) -12.6%

Con: 679 (29.1%) +10.0%

Ref: 405 (17.3%) New

Grn: 156 (6.7%) -7.5%

LDm: 145 (6.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Addlestone South, Runnymede Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 467 & 414 (32.4%) New

LDm: 356 & 352 (24.7%) +15.5%

Con: 329 & 273 (22.8%) -33.1%

Lab: 146 & 129 (10.1%) -18.1%

Grn: 145 (10.0%) +3.3%

Ref GAIN from Con (two seats)

Addlestone, Surrey County Council

Ref: 931 (34.2%) New

Con: 659 (24.2%) -25.9%

LDm: 473 (17.4%) +9.2%

Grn: 441 (16.2%) +1.9%

Lab: 222 (8.1%) -10.9%

Ref GAIN from Con

Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,656 (38.1%) -6.2%

Con: 1,346 (31.0%) -16.0%

Ind: 659 (15.2%) New

Ref: 551 (12.7%) New

Grn: 101 (2.3%) New 

Lab: 31 (0.7%) -3.6%

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

WPB = Workers Part of Britain

SNP = Scottish National Party

AbH = Abolish Holyrood

PPUK = Pirate Party UK

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.05.25

It was very much a southern affair this week and all three seats were successfully defended by the Lib Dems.  The top four finish in each seat was identical - Lib Dem, Tory, Reform then Labour.  Labour's decline in vote share was not as dramatic this week, but they were starting from a low bar in these wards.  Reform continue to eat into the Lab-Con vote, entering each by-election as newcomers.

Eastleigh Borough Council, Hedge End South

LDm: 1,266 (44.4%) -8.7%

Con: 735 (25.8%) -3.8%

Ref: 728 (25.5%) New

Lab: 122 (4.3%) -6.6%

LDm HOLD

Sutton London Borough Council, Carshalton South & Clockhouse

LDm: 1,674 (52.2%) +12.1%

Con: 767 (23.9%) -18.2%

Ref: 573 (17.9%) New

Lab: 89 (2.8%) -5.4%

Grn: 79 (2.5%) -7.1

CPA: 23 (0.7%) New

LDm HOLD

West Sussex County Council, Horsham Riverside

LDm: 1,193 (45.7%) -0.2%

Con: 569 (21.8%) -12.8%

Ref: 547 (21.0%) New

Lab: 181 (6.9%) -6.7%

Grn: 118 (4.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 08.05.25

Just the two seats up for grabs this week, following last week's stunning set of elections for Reform UK.  Reform continued their good form by taking a Yorkshire seat from Labour, again coming from a standing start to push Labour into second.  The swing towards Reform also damaged the Tory candidate, who finished last.

Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council, Skircoat

Ref: 1,392 (36.8%) New

Lab: 1,059 (28.0%) -23.1%

Grn: 566 (15.0%) +0.2%

LDm: 411 (10.9%) +2.7%

Con: 355 (9.4%) -15.7%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Eastleigh Borough Council, Eastleigh Central

LDm: 1,020 (46.6%) +9.3%

Ref: 611 (27.9%) +20.0%

Lab: 319 (14.6%) -18.8%

Con: 149 (6.8%) -7.0%

Ind: 90 (4.1%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ind = Independent

WOKE WEDNESDAYS #26

As nations across Europe commemorate the defeat of Nazi Germany this week, the distortion of European history continues.  In recent years popular entertainment has increasingly tried to dramatise historical events with an injection of diversity, in an effort to distort perceptions of history and denigrate the achievements of our ancestors.  This is merely an extension of the Marxist-derived agenda that has slowly been sinking its roots into every institution across the Western world, up to the point in which our daily lives are now effectively dictated by the left, regardless of which party governs.

Much of this infiltration stems from university campuses, from which the next generation of Marxists graduate and rise through the echelons of society, spreading like a cancer.  When Emily Dawes tried to whip up anti-white vandalism in the run-up to remembrance events in 2018, she did so from her university safe space - an environment in which such vile remarks were apparently acceptable.

Unfortunately for Emily, most of us do not go to university and our minds are not tuned to accept woke nonsense.  After she called for a World War I-era mural on Southampton University to be destroyed, the backlash beyond her uni clique was immense and she was suspended as head of the students' union.  A Change.org petition started by a fellow student called for her resignation and quickly gathered more than 20,000 names.  The row reignated after the students' union reinstated her the day after Remembrance Sunday and she later resigned, issuing a 'sincere' apology.  Of course, this apology was a hollow gesture born from a pushback that she neither expected or could possibly contain.

The mural in question was painted in 1916 to commemorate the lives of Southampton students who had perished on the battlefields of Europe and portrays their spirits collecting posthumous degrees.  While there were numerous black soldiers who fought for Britain in Europe, they formed a tiny fraction of the fighting force and it is highly unlikely that any of them attended Southampton University.  Hence, the mural depicts a bunch of historically accurate white men, which clearley triggered poor Emily.

Following graduation, Miss Dawes returned to her native Virginia where she was raised in a six-bed mansion.  This bourgeois leftist hasn't come to much as yet and according to her LinkedIn profile drifts from job to job, although she did briefly gain access to a group of fragile young minds when she worked as a 'teacher' in a nursery.  However, her teaching progress stunted after eight months and she is currently an admin assistant.

Our most recent Woke Wednesday, which featured Glasgow Rangers, generated 50 comments and 30 shares on Facebook.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.03.25

Nine seats were up for grabs on Thursday and all but two were held by the incumbent party.  There was a major upset in London, where a hard left former Labour councillor sensationally unseated his old party as in independent.  The winning margin in the Hounslow seat was just 12 votes!

No gains for Reform this week, but their presence was felt everywhere as they scored a string of impressive second places on first outing.  A big swing from the Tories to Reform in Lancashire helped the Lib Dems take a Conservative seat there.  The defending Tories were pushed into third by Reform in Pendle.

The Labour vote share was down in all by two of the eight seats the party contested.

Finchley Church End, Barnet London Borough Council

Con: 1,509 (45.2% ) 4.2%

Lab: 977 (29.3%) +3.8%

Ref: 351 (10.5%) New

LDm: 231 (6.4%) -19.1%

Grn: 147(4.4%) -3.7%

REU: 119 (3.6%) New

Ind: 20 (0.6%) New

Con HOLD

Gorrell, Canterbury City Council

Grn: 1,210 (49.5%) -0.5%

Lab: 570 (23.3%) -15.4%

Ref: 423 (17.3%) New

Con: 179 (7.3%) -4.0%

LDm: 64 (2.6%) New

Grn HOLD

Herne & Broomfield, Canterbury City Council

Con: 557 (40.7%) -2.0%

Ref: 473 (34.6%) New

Lab: 196 (14.3%) -9.1%

LDm: 102 (7.5) -13.1%

Grn: 41 (3.0%) -5.0%

Con HOLD

St Stephen's, Canterbury City Council

Lab: 628 (47.0%) -12.7%

Ref: 245 (18.3%) New

LDm: 220 (16.5%) -1.1%

Con: 128 (9.6%) -4.9%

Grn: 116 (8.7%) -0.3%

Lab HOLD

Llanddarog, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 397 (57.1%) -27.1%

Ref: 145 (20.9%) New

Con: 139 (20.0%) New

Gwd: 14 (2.0%) New

Pld HOLD

Hamble & Netley, Eastleigh Borough Council

LDm: 1,224 (52.1%) -10.7%

Ref: 542 (23.1%) New

Con: 421 (17.9%) -8.7%

Lab: 164 (7.0%) +0.9%

LDm HOLD

Brentford East, Hounslow London Borough Council

Lab: 439 (48.1%) -14.7%

Ref: 127 (22.0%) New

Con: 99 (11.1%) -7.6%

Grn: 89 (10.0%) -8.6%

LDm: 79 (8.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Syon & Brentford Lock, Hounslow London Borough Council

Ind: 615 (33.5%) +12.3%

Lab: 603 (32.8%) -4.9%

Grn: 218 (11.9%) -4.3%

Con: 150 (8.2%) -6.6%

Ref: 149 (8.1%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Vivary Bridge, Pendle Borough Council

LDm: 388 (34.9%) +10.9%

Ref: 358 (32.2%) New

Con: 244 (22.0%) -23.9%

Lab: 121 (10.9%) -12.2%

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

REU = Rejoin EU

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Gwd = Gwlad

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 13.02.25

Six by-elections were held on Thursday and it was a mixed bag of results with four of the six changing hands.  Labour's vote share was down in all five English seats, including a routine hold for them in north London, whilst in Scotland their vote was up slightly in a complicated contest.  Technically it was a gain from the Lib Dems, but the Lib Dem incumbent had been elected having finished third, as three seats were up for grabs on that occasion.

Labour lost two seats elsewhere, one to Reform in the red stronghold of south Wales and one to the Greens in leafy Warwick.  Reform pushed Labour into third in the latter as they continue to clock up some impressive new entries.  Their results are certainly beginning to measure up to recent polls that show them leading Labour nationally.

Burnt Oak, Barnet London Borough Council

Lab: 1,064 (45.0%) -18.2%

Con: 501 (21.2%) -2.7%

Ref: 434 (18.4%) New

Grn: 202 (8.6%) -4.3%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) New

REU: 68 (2.9%) New

Lab HOLD

Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar, East Dunbartonshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 958 (30.2%) +2.0%

SNP: 726 (22.9%) -16.0%

LDm: 677 (21.3%) +2.6%

Ref: 476 (15.0%) New

Con: 131 (4.1%) -7.9%

Grn: 128 (4.0%) New

Alb: 63 (2.0%) New

Sov: 18 (0.6%) New

Lab GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 997 (60.0%) +32.5%

Grn: 314 (18.9%) -11.9%

Ref: 257 (15.5%) New

LDm: 52 (3.1%) New

Lab: 42 (2.5%) -5.1%

Con GAIN from Grn

Manor, Stevenage Borough Council

LDm: 760 (55.6%) +0.1%

Ref: 320 (23.4%) New

Con: 139 (10.2%) -5.2%

Lab: 101 (7.4%) -12.3%

Grn: 46 (3.4%) -6.0%

LDm HOLD

Trevethin & Penygarn, Torfaen County Borough Council

Ref: 457 (47.0%) New

Lab: 259 (26.6%) -49.2%

Ind: 117 (12.0%) New

Ind: 114 (11.7%) New

Grn: 25 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Warwick All Saints & Woodloes, Warwick District Council

Grn: 719 (34.9%) +22.1%

Ref: 450 (21.8%) New

Lab: 399 (19.4%) -24.7%

Con: 383 (18.6%) -15.7%

LDm: 110 (5.3%) -3.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

REU = Rejoin EU

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

Sov = Sovereignty

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.11.24

15 council seats were available in this week's round of by-elections.  Labour were defending just five of these, three of which were in Glasgow.  With the SNP in freefall in Scotland's second city, Labour would not have many problems holding here and they did so, albeit with dips in their vote across two of the wards.  They also held in Sefton (Merseyside), again not surprising, but their vote share plummeted by more than 30 points with a huge swing to the second placed Greens.

Of course there couldn't be a week in Starmer's Britain where Labour didn't lose something and they did.  In Gosport (Hampshire) they lost a seat, with a swing to both Reform and the victorious Conservatives.

Labour also gained a rare seat, taking advantage of a vacant independent seat in Dacorum (Hertfordshire).  Reform also made gains at the expense of residents' groups in Kent, gaining two seats, one of which they had not previously contested.

The Tories improved on last week's performance, gaining three seats from the Lib Dems.

Bennetts End, Dacorum Borough Council

Lab: 318 (37.1%) +6.4%

Con: 313 (36.5%) +14.5%

Grn: 102 (11.9%) +1.7%

Ref: 92 (10.7%) New

LDm: 32 (3.7%) -3.6%

Lab GAIN from Ind

Hemel Hempstead Town, Dacorum Borough Council

Con: 347 (43.7%) +17.3%

LDm: 174 (21.9%) -24.8%

Lab: 147 (18.5%) -8.4%

Ref: 79 (9.9%) New

Grn: 45 (5.9%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Greenhithe & Knockhall, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 284 (31.2%) New

Ind: 251 (27.6% ) -17.2%

Grn: 150 (16.5%) New

Lab: 113 (12.4%) -7.0%

Con: 112 (12.3%) -23.5%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Drumchapel & Anniesland, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,084 (34.3%) -3.8%

SNP: 830 (26.3%) -11.6%

Ref: 405 (12.8%) New

Ind: 297 (9.4%) +4.2%

Grn: 263 (8.3%) +2.3%

Con: 184 (5.8%) -3.7%

LDm: 93 (2.9%) +1.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Maryhill, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 999 (35.9%) +1.9%

SNP: 814 (29.2%) -12.9%

Ref: 353 (12.7%) New

Grn: 338 (12.1%) -0.2%

Alb: 118 (4.2%) New

Con: 89 (3.2%) -5.0%

LDm: 75 (2.7%) +0.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

North East, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 630 (34.3%) -9.7%

SNP: 591 (32.2%) -10.4%

Ref: 336 (18.3%) New

Con: 99 (5.4%) -3.3%

Grn: 77 (4.2%) +1.2%

TUS: 68 (3.7%) +2.5%

LDm: 36 (2.0%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Harbourside & Town, Gosport Borough Council

Con: 445 (48.5%) +10.6%

Lab: 255 (27.8%) -12.8%

LDm: 108 (11.8%) +3.4%

Ref: 85 (9.3%) New

Ind: 13 (1.4%) New

Hrt: 11 (1.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Highland Council

(First preference votes)

LDm: 1,428 (58.9%) +21.4%

SNP: 619 (25.5%) -8.0%

Grn: 146 (6.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 109 (4.5%) New

Con: 107 (4.4%) -5.7%

SLP: 15 (0.6%) New

LDm HOLD (elected stage 1)

Denne, Horsham District Council

Con: 712 (38.6%) +9.3%

LDm: 672 (36.4%) -13.2%

Grn: 255 (13.8%) +5.0%

Lab: 205 (11.1%) -1.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

Swanscombe & Greenhithe, Kent County Council

Ref: 695 (29.1%) +27.5%

Lab: 588 (24.6%) -7.5%

Ind: 395 (16.5%) -23.9%

Con: 374 (15.6%) -10.3%

Grn: 296 (12.4%) New

LDm: 44 (1.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Litherland, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 495 (43.7%) -30.3%

Grn: 385 (34.0%) +27.1%

Ref: 141 (12.4%) New

Con: 48 (4.2%) -0.6%

WPB: 40 (3.5%) New

TUS: 25 (2.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Oakham North East, Rutland County Council

LDm: 244 (40.9%) -30.7%

Con: 237 (39.7%) +11.3%

Ref: 93 (15.6%) New

Lab: 23 (3.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Blackmoor Vale, Somerset County Council

Con: 1,120 (57.4%) +13.1%

LDm: 724 (36.6%) -19.1%

Grn: 86 (4.4%) New

Lab: 32 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Rowbarton & Staplegrove, Somerset County Council

LDm: 817 (58.3%) +1.7%

Con: 396 (28.3%) -2.4%

Grn: 102 (7.3%) New

Lab: 96 (6.1%) -6.6%

LDm HOLD

Murston, Swale Borough Council

Ind: 269 (34.5%) -6.1%

Lab: 229 (29.4%) +2.2%

Ref: 139 (17.8%) New

Con: 116 (14.9%) +0.4%

LDm: 26 (3.3%) -6.2%

Ind HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Hrt = Heritage

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and local groups