Plaid Cymru have taken the Senedd seat of Caerphilly in a crucial indicator of how next May's Senedd elections could pan out.
Labour's red wall in south Wales has never fallen, not even in the 2019 Brexit election that saw many seats in the red wall across northern England turn Tory blue. However, recent council by-elections had seen Reform taking several Labour seats in the Valleys that make up the sturdiest red wall of all.
Reform were also expected to take the Senedd seat of Caerphilly on Thursday, but polls and bookmakers called it wrong. The most recent poll conducted in the constituency found Reform leading on 42 per cent, closely followed by Plaid Cymru on 38 per cent. Labour were way back on just 12 per cent. Bookies put even more faith in Reform gaining this seat, making them odds on favourites, considerably ahead of Plaid, but miles in front of Labour who were languishing way back on 33-1.
It would have been a colossal victory for Reform, having previously finished last in 2021 with less than two per cent of the vote. They still surged past every other party in this by-election - except for one. Plaid Cymru emerged victorious with a fairly comfortable margin over Reform of 3,848. Labour finished a distant third, as predicted, but they will take solace in the fact that their left-wing comrades in Plaid were the victors and not the dreaded Reform.
Labour had held Caerphilly since the dawn of what was then known as the Welsh Assembly. Its first AM (now termed MS) was Ron Davies, the leader of Welsh Labour who led the charge for devolution back in the late 90s, before an infamous incident on Clapham Common in London brought him down in disgrace.
The most recent MS for Caerphilly was Hefin David, who was found dead in a suspected suicide two months ago. In the 2021 Senedd election he secured Labour's biggest ever majority in the constituency, which has now been overturned by the fake nationalists of Plaid Cymru. And check out that huge swing from Labour to Reform...
Caerphilly, Senedd
Lindsay Whittle (Pld) 15,961 (47.4%) +19.0%
Llŷr Powell (Ref) 12,113 (36.0%) +34.2%
Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.0%) -34.9%
Gareth Potter (Con) 690 (2.0%) -15.3%
Gareth Hughes (Grn) 516 (1.5%) New
Steven Aicheler (LDm) 497 (1.5%) -1.2%
Anthony Cook (Gwd) 117 (0.3%) New
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.2%) New
Previous result
Hefin David (Lab) 13,289 (46.0%) +10.7%
Delyth Jewell (Pld) 8,211 (28.4%) -1.1%
Steven Mayfield (Con) 5,013 (17.3%) +8.4%
Stephen Jones (AbAs) 1,119 (3.9%) New
Steven Aicheler (LDm) 787 (2.7%) +1.3%
Tim Price (Ref) 495 (1.7%) New
There were also seven council contests taking place on Thursday, with Labour defending two seats - one each in south Birmingham and Colchester, Essex. They were defeated in Birmingham by the Lib Dems, who were very much in the ascendancy overall. The Moseley ward was previously contested for two seats, which is why the vote shares look a little off. It is very much a left-leaning 'progressive' ward, which is why Reform and the Tories were nowhere to be seen.
Labour managed to cling on in Colchester, holding off a Lib Dem challenge, but saw their vote share plummet. The Labour vote share was down in every seat contested, with the exception of Glastonbury in Somerset, where they were newcomers.
Reform made a gain in Portsmouth at the hands of an outgoing independent, garnering more than five times the vote of the second placed Tories. Overall, Reformers would probably be disheartened by this election night, but the truth is that they are still taking the electoral landscape by storm. From the other six council seats contested, they finished second in four at the first time of asking.
The Tories held a seat in Cambridgeshire, but lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Somerset. The Lib Dems really were the success story of these council by-elections, gaining three and holding another. There is still little evidence of a Green bounce, as per opinion polling, although they did marginally increase their vote share in three of five seats contested.
Moseley, Birmingham City Council
LDm: 1,634 (34.7%) -11.9%
Lab: 1,149 (24.4%) -14.1%
Ind: 923 (19.6%) New
Grn: 474 (10.1%) +1.5%
Ref: 345 (7.3%) New
Con: 101 (2.4%) -4.1%
Ind: 80 (1.7%) New
LDm GAIN from Lab
New Town & Christ Church, Colchester City Council
Lab: 800 (29.7%) -27.6%
LDm: 657 (24.4%) +12.1%
Ref: 600 (22.3%) New
Grn: 401 (14.9%) +5.3%
Con: 200 (7.4%) -8.9%
Ind: 38 (1.4%) -3.1%
Lab HOLD
Whittlesey North West, Fenland District Council
Con: 483 (47.5%) -9.8%
Ref: 346 (34.1%) New
Ind: 127 (12.5%) New
Lab: 60 (5.9%) -16.2%
Con HOLD
Paulsgrove, Portsmouth City Council
Ref: 1,770 (64.2%) New
Con: 311 (11.3%) -4.0%
Lab: 289 (10.5%) -4.1%
LDm: 239 (8.7%) +5.7%
Grn: 143 (5.3%) +1.9%
Ref GAIN from Ind
Glastonbury, Somerset Council
LDm: 882 (36.4%) -0.7%
Ref: 523 (21.6%) New
Con: 506 (20.9%) -9.7%
Grn: 480 (19.8%) -7.5%
Lab: 35 (1.4%) New
LDm HOLD
Dunster, Somerset Council
LDm: 1142 (49.6%) +8.4%
Ref: 666 (28.9%) New
Con: 449 (19.5%) -22.8%
Lab: 44 (1.9%) -4.2%
LDm GAIN from Con
Milton & Tamarside, Torridge District Council
LDm: 428 (37.5%) New
Ref: 355 (31.1%) New
Con: 191 (16.7%) New
Ind: 101 (8.8%) New
Grn: 67 (5.9%) -23.9%
LDm GAIN from Ind
Abbreviations
Pld = Plaid Cymru
Ref = Reform UK
Lab = Labour
Con = Conservative
Grn = Green
LDm = Liberal Democrat
Gwd = Gwlad
UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party
AbAs = Abolish the Welsh Assembly
Ind = Independent
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