COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.07.26

We had a county-wide election this week, but it wasn't for the council.  The position of Police and Crime Commissioner in Norfolk was up for grabs...

Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner

Colin Sutton (Ref) 32,647 (26.7%) New

Matthew Taylor (Con) 18,348 (15.0%) -18.9%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 16,907 (13.8%) -2.0%

Marcus Pearcey (Ind) 16,402 (13.4%) New

Beth Jones (Lab) 14,192 (11.6%) -23.6%

Mark Buckton (Res) 13,319 (10.9%) New

Christopher Brown (LDm) 10,499 (8.6%) -6.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Labour won this election in 2024, with a relatively narrow victory over the Conservatives.  This time the result wasn't even close and Labour crashed to fifth.  Police and Crime Commissioners are being abolished in two years time, with the responsibilities being transferred into the remit of elected mayors.  This announcement last year led to a backlash from Norfolk's PCC, who quit Labour in anguish, accusing the government of a 'lack of consultation'.  She continued in the role as an independent, before vacating the post last month due to a family illness.  She also left her role as a district councillor (see below).  There were a few new faces on the PCC ballot paper this time, all stumping up £500 for the privilege.  All four parties saved their deposits last time, as it proved this time around - every single candidate surpassed the required five per cent mark in order to get their deposit back.  This included Restore Britain, who were hoping for a decent result as Rupert Lowe's constituency falls entirely within the catchment area.  Any hopes they may have had of denting Reform's chances were not realised, as Reform won with an impressive majority of 14,299 (compared to Labour's 1,888 majority in 2024).  Reform's first ever PCC is highly respected former detective Colin Sutton, who led various high profile murder investigations during a long career.  This has been a costly election to the taxpayer, with a bill of £2million that on a 17.1 per cent turnout worked out at more than £16 per vote!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

There were also eight council seats to be decided this week, all of which fell inside England and all but one sit across a central belt from Staffordshire in the west to Norfolk in the east.  The only exception is a seat in the Rushmoor borough of Hampshire.

Dereham Toftwood, Breckland District Council

Con: 458 (45.8%) -1.7%

Ref: 369 (36.9%) New

Lab: 172 (17.2%) -35.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who simultaneously vacated her post as Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner (see above).  This ward was a straight head-to-head last time between Labour and the Conservatives.  Reform had won all three of the previous council by-elections held in Breckland, but their Turkish candidate could not persuade enough voters in this semi-rural ward to swing it for her party.  She did however enjoy a huge swing from Labour that dumped the incumbent party in last place and delivered a Conservatives gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Ramsey & Bury, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 506 (29.7%) -17.3%

Ind: 417 (24.5%) New

Con: 412 (24.2%) -5.2%

LDm: 126 (7.4%) +0.6%

Grn: 123 (7.2%) +1.2%

Lab: 118 (6.9%) -4.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform gained this seat from the Conservatives in last year's local elections, but the winner recently stood down, citing 'personal circumstances'.  Last year's defeated Conservative sought to get her former seat back at this by-election, but slipped to third place.  She was narrowly beaten by an independent, who took a significant swing from Reform.  Labour finished third here last year, but collect the wooden spoon this time around.  No Burnham bounce here!

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Kidlington West, Cherwell District Council

LDm: 1,028 (58.8%) +13.7%

Ref: 331 (18.9%) -4.3%

Con: 232 (13.2%) -4.1%

Grn: 158 (9.0%) -5.4%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem incumbent, who gained this seat from the Conservatives in 2021.  She resigned for 'personal reasons', primarily to spend more time with her family.  The Lib Dems were very keen to hold here, as their coalition majority hung by a thread.  They did so with ease, garnering three times as many votes as second placed Reform, while their coalition partners the Greens picked up the wooden spoon.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Old Catton, Norfolk County Council

Con: 973 (34.6%) +8.5%

Grn: 921 (32.7%) +14.0%

Ref: 561 (19.9%) -10.1%

Lab: 147 (5.2%) -10.6%

LDm: 100 (3.6%) -5.6%

Res: 98 (3.5%) New

Loon: 13 (0.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent less than four weeks after he was elected in May, citing 'poor health'.  Did he not expect to win?  A very poor show that left his colleague with what turned out to be an insurmountable task of holding the seat.  The former Conservative councillor selected by Reform was heavily defeated by her old party, while the Greens pushed her into third.  This was the first ever local election fought in the name of Restore Britain, but it was disastrous.  Their candidate pulled out shortly after the nomination papers were handed in, but it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.  It's not going well is it, Rupert?

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✔

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Grn: 664 (41.2%) +3.4%

Ref: 479 (29.7%) +2.9%

Lab: 213 (13.2%) +3.7%

Con: 208 (12.9%) -3.2%

LDm: 37 (2.3%) New

YrP: 11 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

As often tends to be the case with the Banana Republic of Peterborough, this by-election was mired in controversy before a single vote had been cast.  Triggered by the resignation of a young native lady who was elected as a Labour councillor in the 2024 elections, she quit the party a year later after accusing her comrades of 'sustained bullying and marginalisation'.  Why was she targeted?  She simply called for CCTV to be installed in the city's taxis.  This led to her facing accusations of 'racism' from Muslim comrades, who also tarred her family with the same brush.  In resigning her seat recently, she accused the council of 'systemic cover-ups', which Labour's Muslim council leader denied.  As Peterborough wards go, this one is not overtly Muslim, but it did opt for the Greens in May.  An independent candidate who stood here in that election dropped out, while there was a rare outing for the Fruit and Nutters.  The Corbyn shitshow finished last with just 11 votes, while the party that stole their far left thunder roared into the lead and garnered more than three times the number of votes received by Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Wellington, Rushmoor Borough Council

Lab: 408 (42.1%) +9.2%

Con: 199 (20.5%) -3.0%

Ref: 196 (20.2%) -7.5%

Grn: 118 (12.2%) New

LDm: 49 (5.1%) New

Lab HOLD

The retirement of the Labour incumbent triggered this contest.  He had served as a Rushmoor councillor on and off since 1976 and his successor scored an impressive hold for a party that is not used to expanding their vote share and moving further ahead of their rivals.  An independent candidate who stood here in May did not stand this time.  This area was historically a Conservative stronghold, but this all changed in 2024 when Labour took control of the council and won the local Aldershot Westminster constituency for the first time in history.  Labour lost outright control of the council following several defections last year, but they remain the largest party and run it as a minority administration.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Himley & Swindon, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 298 (43.2%) -21.0%

Ref: 187 (27.1%) New

Ind: 129 (18.7%) New

Lab: 28 (4.1%) New

Grn: 22 (3.2%) New

Ind: 16 (2.3%) -12.0%

LDm: 10 (1.4%) -20.0%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 82-year-old Tory incumbent, who had been council leader as recently as 2024.  He was re-elected to this ward in 2023, having bested the only two other candidates - a Lib Dem and an independent.  It was a much more crowded ballot paper this time and the votes were dispersed very thinly in this sparsely populated ward on the edge of the Black Country.  The Conservatives managed to hold off Reform by more than 100 votes.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Manor, Stafford Borough Council

Lab: 481 (36.2%) -19.6%

Ref: 414 (31.2%) New

Con: 237 (17.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 197 (14.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

As with the previous seat, this was triggered by the death of the 82-year-old incumbent.  The longstanding councillor had been re-elected most recently in 2023, when she topped the poll with both ward seats up for grabs.  She and her Labour colleague easily saw off the Conservatives, while a solitary Green candidate collected the wooden spoon.  The Greens finished last again this time, while there was a significant swing from both Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Richey has extended his lead further, with Karl suffering another poor performance.  Karl has now dropped below the 50 per cent accuracy rate and at best can only close the gap next week as there are only five by-elections.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.02.26

Two seats were available on Thursday, with a third having been decided earlier this week.  All three of this week's vacancies have come about through the demise of the incumbents.

As we predicted, the Tories had too much in Bradford to easily hold off Reform.  The defending party was aided by a campaign gift from Reform, who had demanded the election go ahead despite the fact that the seat is vacated in 12 weeks time anyway.  The cost to the taxpayer was reportedly £30,000.

Not for the first time this week, the Labour party slumped to fourth place from first in Thursday's other contest.  Reform came from nowhere to take the Peterborough seat by a slender margin of 36 votes over the Greens.  As you can see from all three seats - the Labour vote is in freefall.

Worth Valley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

Con: 1,815 (51.7%) -4.7%

Ref: 917 (26.1%) New

Lab: 425 (12.1%) -19.6%

Grn: 245 (7.0%) -1.0%

LDm: 83 (2.4%) -1.6%

Ind: 29 (0.8%) New

Con HOLD

Fletton & Woodston, Peterborough City Council

Ref: 565 (29.4%) New

Grn: 529 (27.6%) +16.2%

Con: 419 (21.8%) -11.8%

Lab: 323 (16.8%) -31.2%

LDm: 84 (4.4%) -0.7%

Ref GAIN from Lab

In Tuesday's action, Labour plummeted to fourth place in west Wales.  They had previously won the seat in a head-to-head with the Conservatives, but on Tuesday fell behind three newcomers.  The untimely death of their disabled councillor at the age of 34 didn't draw much sympathy among voters in the port town, with Plaid taking advantage of a very poor turnout.

Fishguard North East, Pembrokeshire County Council

Pld: 253 (33.8%) New

LDm: 135 (18.0%) New

Ref: 95 (12.7%) New

Lab: 83 (11.1%) -47.9%

Ind: 79 (10.5%) New

Con: 69 (9.2%) -31.9%

Ind: 35 (4.7%) New

Pld GAIN from Lab

BY-ELECTIONS 23.10.25

Plaid Cymru have taken the Senedd seat of Caerphilly in a crucial indicator of how next May's Senedd elections could pan out.

Labour's red wall in south Wales has never fallen, not even in the 2019 Brexit election that saw many seats in the red wall across northern England turn Tory blue.  However, recent council by-elections had seen Reform taking several Labour seats in the Valleys that make up the sturdiest red wall of all.

Reform were also expected to take the Senedd seat of Caerphilly on Thursday, but polls and bookmakers called it wrong.  The most recent poll conducted in the constituency found Reform leading on 42 per cent, closely followed by Plaid Cymru on 38 per cent.  Labour were way back on just 12 per cent.  Bookies put even more faith in Reform gaining this seat, making them odds on favourites, considerably ahead of Plaid, but miles in front of Labour who were languishing way back on 33-1.

It would have been a colossal victory for Reform, having previously finished last in 2021 with less than two per cent of the vote.  They still surged past every other party in this by-election - except for one.  Plaid Cymru emerged victorious with a fairly comfortable margin over Reform of 3,848.  Labour finished a distant third, as predicted, but they will take solace in the fact that their left-wing comrades in Plaid were the victors and not the dreaded Reform.

Labour had held Caerphilly since the dawn of what was then known as the Welsh Assembly.  Its first AM (now termed MS) was Ron Davies, the leader of Welsh Labour who led the charge for devolution back in the late 90s, before an infamous incident on Clapham Common in London brought him down in disgrace.

The most recent MS for Caerphilly was Hefin David, who was found dead in a suspected suicide two months ago.  In the 2021 Senedd election he secured Labour's biggest ever majority in the constituency, which has now been overturned by the fake nationalists of Plaid Cymru.  And check out that huge swing from Labour to Reform...

Caerphilly, Senedd

Lindsay Whittle (Pld) 15,961 (47.4%) +19.0%

Llŷr Powell (Ref) 12,113 (36.0%) +34.2%

Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.0%) -34.9%

Gareth Potter (Con) 690 (2.0%) -15.3%

Gareth Hughes (Grn) 516 (1.5%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 497 (1.5%) -1.2%

Anthony Cook (Gwd) 117 (0.3%) New

Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.2%) New

Previous result

Hefin David (Lab) 13,289 (46.0%) +10.7%

Delyth Jewell (Pld) 8,211 (28.4%) -1.1%

Steven Mayfield (Con) 5,013 (17.3%) +8.4%

Stephen Jones (AbAs) 1,119 (3.9%) New

Steven Aicheler (LDm) 787 (2.7%) +1.3%

Tim Price (Ref) 495 (1.7%) New

There were also seven council contests taking place on Thursday, with Labour defending two seats - one each in south Birmingham and Colchester, Essex.  They were defeated in Birmingham by the Lib Dems, who were very much in the ascendancy overall.  The Moseley ward was previously contested for two seats, which is why the vote shares look a little off.  It is very much a left-leaning 'progressive' ward, which is why Reform and the Tories were nowhere to be seen.

Labour managed to cling on in Colchester, holding off a Lib Dem challenge, but saw their vote share plummet.  The Labour vote share was down in every seat contested, with the exception of Glastonbury in Somerset, where they were newcomers.

Reform made a gain in Portsmouth at the hands of an outgoing independent, garnering more than five times the vote of the second placed Tories.  Overall, Reformers would probably be disheartened by this election night, but the truth is that they are still taking the electoral landscape by storm.  From the other six council seats contested, they finished second in four at the first time of asking.

The Tories held a seat in Cambridgeshire, but lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Somerset.  The Lib Dems really were the success story of these council by-elections, gaining three and holding another.  There is still little evidence of a Green bounce, as per opinion polling, although they did marginally increase their vote share in three of five seats contested.

Moseley, Birmingham City Council

LDm: 1,634 (34.7%) -11.9%

Lab: 1,149 (24.4%) -14.1%

Ind: 923 (19.6%) New

Grn: 474 (10.1%) +1.5%

Ref: 345 (7.3%) New

Con: 101 (2.4%) -4.1%

Ind: 80 (1.7%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

New Town & Christ Church, Colchester City Council

Lab: 800 (29.7%) -27.6%

LDm: 657 (24.4%) +12.1%

Ref: 600 (22.3%) New

Grn: 401 (14.9%) +5.3%

Con: 200 (7.4%) -8.9%

Ind: 38 (1.4%) -3.1%

Lab HOLD

Whittlesey North West, Fenland District Council

Con: 483 (47.5%) -9.8%

Ref: 346 (34.1%) New

Ind: 127 (12.5%) New

Lab: 60 (5.9%) -16.2%

Con HOLD

Paulsgrove, Portsmouth City Council

Ref: 1,770 (64.2%) New

Con: 311 (11.3%) -4.0%

Lab: 289 (10.5%) -4.1%

LDm: 239 (8.7%) +5.7%

Grn: 143 (5.3%) +1.9%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Glastonbury, Somerset Council

LDm: 882 (36.4%) -0.7%

Ref: 523 (21.6%) New

Con: 506 (20.9%) -9.7%

Grn: 480 (19.8%) -7.5%

Lab: 35 (1.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Dunster, Somerset Council

LDm: 1142 (49.6%) +8.4%

Ref: 666 (28.9%) New

Con: 449 (19.5%) -22.8%

Lab: 44 (1.9%) -4.2%

LDm GAIN from Con

Milton & Tamarside, Torridge District Council

LDm: 428 (37.5%) New

Ref: 355 (31.1%) New

Con: 191 (16.7%) New

Ind: 101 (8.8%) New

Grn: 67 (5.9%) -23.9%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Gwd = Gwlad

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

AbAs = Abolish the Welsh Assembly

Ind = Independent

MAYORAL RESULTS

There were six regional and metropolitan mayoral elections held on Thursday, including two new posts - Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire.  Labour were defending the four existing posts and successfully fought off strong Reform challenges in three of them.  Labour narrowly beat Reform by just a few hundred votes in both Doncaster and North Tyneside.  The Conservatives scored a gain from Labour in Cambridgeshire, which at the time of writing is the only piece of good news for the Tories on a torrid day.

Having wreaked devastating damage on the Tories on county councils across England, Reform UK took both of the new mayoral posts.  Ex-Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns triumphed for Reform in Greater Lincolnshire, while former Team GB boxer Luke Campbell became the first mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire.

Here are the results in full.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough

Paul Bristow (Con) 60,243 (28.4%)

Ryan Coogan (Ref) 49,647 (23.4%)

Anna Smith (Lab) 42,671 (20.1%)

Lorna Dupré (LDm) 41,611 (19.6%)

Bob Ensch (Grn) 18,255 (8.6%)

Con GAIN from Lab

Doncaster

Ros Jones (Lab) 23,805 (32.6%) 

Alexander Jones (Ref) 23,107 (31.6%)

Nick Fletcher (Con) 18,982 (26.0%)

Julie Buckley (Grn) 2,449 (3.4%)

Andrew Walmsley (Yrks) 1,164 (1.6%)

David Bettney (SDP) 929 (1.3%)

Mihai Melenciuc (LDm) 895 (1.2%)

Frank Calladine (BDm) 448 (0.6%)

Ahsan Jamil (WPB) 434 (0.6%)

Andy Hiles (TUS) 393 (0.5%)

Richie Vallance (Ind) 245 (0.3%)

Doug Wright (Ind) 157 (0.2%)

Lab HOLD

Greater Lincolnshire

Andrea Jenkyns (Ref) 104,133 (42.0%)

Rob Waltham (Con) 64,585 (26.1%)

Jason Stockwood (Lab) 30,384 (12.3%)

Marianne Overton (Ind) 19,911 (8.0%)

Sally Horscroft (Grn) 15,040 (6.1%)

Trevor Young (LDm) 13,728 (5.5%)

Ref WIN (new post)

Hull & East Yorkshire

Luke Campbell (Ref) 48,491 (35.8%)

Mike Ross (LDm) 37,510 (27.7%)

Anne Handley (Con) 21,393 (15.8%)

Margaret Pinder (Lab) 18,568 (13.7%)

Kerry Harrison (Grn) 5,049 (3.7%)

Rowan Halstead (Yrks) 4,372 (3.2%)

Ref WIN (new post)

North Tyneside

Karen Clark (Lab) 16,230 (30.2%)

John Falkenstein (Ref) 15,786 (29.4%)

Liam Bones (Con) 11,017 (20.5%)

Chloe-Louise Reilly (Grn) 3,980 (7.4%)

John Appleby (LDm) 3,453 (6.4%)

Cath Davis (Ind) 1,780 (3.3%)

Martin Uren (Ind) 1,460 (2.7%)

Lab HOLD

West of England

Helen Godwin (Lab) 51,197 (25.0%)

Arron Banks (Ref) 45,252 (22.1%)

Mary Page (Grn) 41,094 (20.0%)

Steve Smith (Con) 34,092 (16.6%)

Oli Henman (LDm) 28,711 (14.0%)

Ian Scott (Ind) 4,682 (2.3%)

Lab HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.10.24

A total of 13 seats were available in this week's round of by-elections, with Labour defending six of them.  It was yet another grim set of results for them, with three of those seats lost to the Conservatives.  Labour finished last in two contests, while the vote share was also down in all 11 of the seats it contested - including some huge margins.  It was down 31.4 per cent in Calderdale, 26.3 per cent in South Ribble and 30.2 per cent in Surrey Heath.

Muscliff & Strouden Park - Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council

Con: 1,008 (42.3%) +16.4%

Lab: 424 (17.8%) -3.0%

Ind: 406 (17.0%) New

Ind: 188 (7.9%) New

LDm: 174 (7.3%) +1.9%

Ind: 100 (4.2%) New

Grn: 84 (3.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Calder - Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,009 (36.3%) -31.4%

Grn: 784 (28.2%) +13.8%

LDm: 410 (14.6%) +9.6%

Ind: 316 (11.4%) New

Con: 251 (9.0%) -3.9%

SDP: 12 (0.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Northgate & West Green - Crawley Borough Council

Lab: 704 (38.5%) -15.0%

Con: 492 (26.9%) -2.0%

Ref: 292 (16.0%) New

Grn: 174 (9.5%) -3.0%

WPB: 133 (7.3%) New

TUS: 35 (1.9%) -3.2%

Lab HOLD

Prestatyn North - Denbighshire County Council

Con: 295 (25.9%) +0.1%

Ind: 221 (19.4%) New

Ref: 218 (19.2%) New

Lab: 212 (18.6%) -18.7%

Plaid: 169 (14.9%) -4.4%

LDm: 33 (2.0%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Croft - East Lindsey District Council

Con: 198 (46.5%)

Ind: 79 (18.5%)

LDm: 75 (17.6%)

Ind: 48 (11.3%)

Grn: 21 (4.9%)

Lab: 5 (1.2%)

Con HOLD (previously elected unopposed)

Whickham North - Gateshead Borough Council

LDm: 902 (64.6%) +6.7%

Lab: 285 (20.4%) -6.3%

Con: 137 (9.8%) +0.9%

Grn: 72 (5.2%) -1.3%

LDm HOLD

Talybolion - Isle of Anglesey County Council

Ind: 678 (51.6%) +24.6%

Plaid: 518 (39.4%) -9.6%

Con: 72 (5.5%) -14.5%

Grn: 46 (3.5%) +0.5%

Ind GAIN from Plaid

Hemlington - Middlesbrough Borough Council

Lab: 422 (53.1%) -10.2%

Con: 251 (31.6%) +16.0%

Ind: 55 (6.9%) New

WPB: 47 (5.9%) New

LDm: 20 (2.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Town - Monmouthshire County Council

Con: 350 (58.9%) +29.9%

Lab: 184 (31.0%) -15.3%

LDm: 41 (6.9%) -1.6%

Grn: 19 (3.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Barton & Becton - New Forest District Council

Con: 671 (57.1%) -0.9%

LDm: 505 (42.9%) +18.9%

Con HOLD

Histon & Impington - South Cambridgeshire District Council

LDm: 942 (38.7%) -2.3%

Ind: 617 (25.3%) +4.1%

Grn: 420 (17.3%) +5.8%

Con: 283 (11.6%) -0.1%

Lab: 172 (7.1%) -7.4%

LDm HOLD

Middleforth - South Ribble Borough Council

Con: 517 (46.3%) +21.7%

Lab: 362 (32.4%) -26.3%

LDm: 173 (15.5%) -0.9%

Grn: 64 (5.7%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Old Dean - Surrey Heath Borough Council

LDm: 394 (44.7%) New

Con: 278 (31.6%) -27.3%

Ref: 109 (12.4%) New

Lab: 96 (10.9%) -30.2%

Ind: 4 (0.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

TUS = Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 19.09.24

There were eight seats up for grabs on Thursday, plus one contest held on Monday.  With the exception of Huntingdonshire, where Labour were newcomers, the Labour vote share was down in all the other seats.  They lost four seats in total, three to the Conservatives and one to the Lib Dems.  They held three others, despite huge swings to the Lib Dems in Cornwall, Reform in Hartlepool and a combination of the Greens and Workers Party in Westminster.

The Tories were defending three seats, two of which were successfully held in Hartlepool, while they lost to an independent in Huntingdonshire.

Sidemoor, Bromsgrove District Council

LDem: 276 (52.6%) +24.9%

Con: 141 (26.9%) +3.1%

Lab: 87 (16.6%) -29.2%

Grn: 21 (4.0%) New

LDem GAIN from Lab

Falmouth Penwerris, Cornwall County Council

Lab: 337 (44.7%) -19.8%

LDem: 228 (30.2%) +25.5%

Grn: 189 (25.1%) +16.6%

Lab HOLD

Burn Valley, Hartlepool Borough Council

Lab: 475 (47.5%) -21.5%

Ref: 399 (39.9%) +23.9%

LDem: 89 (8.9%) New

Grn: 36 (3.6%) New

Lab HOLD

St Neots Eatons, Huntingdonshire District Council

Ind: 531 (32.7%) New

LDem: 426 (26.2%) +2.3%

Con: 420 (25.9%) -5.4%

Ind: 125 (7.7%) New

Lab: 77 (4.7%) New

Grn: 45 (2.8%) -8.7%

Ind GAIN from Con

Harrow Road, Westminster City Council

Lab: 512 (44.2%) -27.5%

Grn: 244 (21.1%) New

WPB: 166 (14.3%) New

Con: 162 (14.0%) -3.9%

LDem: 63 (5.4%) -4.9%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Lab HOLD

West End, Westminster City Council

Con: 627 (48.8%) +8.5%

Lab: 489 (38.1%) -10.5%

Grn: 94 (7.3%) New

LDem: 74 (5.8%) -5.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fairfield, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council (two seats)

Con (2): 1,291 & 1,181 (54.2%) +12.0%

Lab (2): 528 & 496 (22.2%) -4.4%

Ref (2): 344 & 304 (14.5%) +6.4%

Ind: 110 (4.6%) New

Grn: 62 (2.6%) New

LDem (2): 45 & 43 (1.9%) New

Con HOLD (two seats)

Marine, Worthing Borough Council

Con: 865 (40.7%) +7.9%

Lab: 781 (36.8%) -16.0%

Ref: 228 (10.7%) New

Grn: 138 (6.5%) -2.7%

LDem: 113 (5.3%) +0.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Bestwood St Albans, Gedling Borough Council (held on Monday)

Con: 358 (47.8%) +16.3%

Lab: 300 (40.1%) -12.3%

LDem: 91 (12.1%) +6.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 12.09.24

Ten council contests this week, including three in London.  Labour held in Tower Hamlets with an increased vote share, but their vote fell in Hackney where they lost a seat to the Greens.

Elsewhere there were Labour holds in Cambridge, Gateshead and Milton Keynes, but the Labour vote was down in all three.  They gained a seat from the Conservatives on the Isle of Arran with a huge swing, due in part to the absence of an SNP candidate and the Scotting voting system.  The Labour vote was down in seven of the ten by-elections.

The Lib Dems held two of the three seats they were defending, but surrendered a seat to an independent candidate in Norfolk.  The Lib Dems chose not to defend the seat after the sitting councillor passed away, instead endorsing the independent candidate who ended up winning the seat.

Romsey, Cambridge City Council

Lab: 596 (42.8%) -2.7%

Grn: 409 (29.4%) +8.7%

LDem: 249 (17.9%) +3.4%

Con: 138 (9.9%) -9.3%

Lab HOLD

Bridges, Gateshead Borough Council

Lab: 320 (30.6%) -27.7%

LDem: 255 (24.4%) +13.0%

Grn: 253 (24.2%) +9.8%

Ref: 166 (15.9%) New

Con: 53 (5.1%) -10.9%

Lab HOLD

London Fields, Hackney London Borough Council

Lab: 746 (54.1%) -6.9%

Ind: 437 (31.7%) New

Con: 72 (5.2%) New

LDem: 71 (5.2%) -8.0%

WPB: 52 (3.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Stoke Newington, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 1,253 (53.0%) +19.5%

Lab: 945 (40.0%) -19.2%

LDem: 78 (3.3%) New

Con: 74 (3.1%) -4.1%

Ind: 12 (0.5%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Bletchley East, Milton Keynes City Council

Lab: 869 (49.7%) -7.1%

Con: 431 (24.7%) -0.7%

Ind: 147 (8.4%) New

Grn: 143 (8.2%) +2.6%

LDem: 127 (7.3%) +0.5%

Herit: 30 (1.7%) New

Lab HOLD

North Jesmond, Newcastle upon Tyne City Council

LDem: 740 (64.5%) +2.9%

Lab: 234 (20.4%) -6.0%

Grn: 93 (8.1%) -0.2%

Con: 35 (3.1%) -0.6%

Ref: 26 (2.3%) New

PoW: 19 (1.7%) New

LDem HOLD

Freebridge Lynn, Norfolk County Council

Ind: 723 (53.8%) New

Con: 454 (33.8%) +2.8%

Lab: 167 (12.4%) +5.8%

Ind GAIN from LDem

Arran, North Ayrshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 748 (45.4%) +35.4%

Ind: 402 (24.4%) +2.4%

Grn: 340 (20.6%) +10.7%

Con: 90 (5.5%) -27.0%

Ref: 55 (3.3%) New

LDem: 12 (0.7%) New

Lab GAIN from Con (elected at stage 5)

North Walsham Market Cross, North Norfolk Council

LDem: 283 (46.5%) -3.8%

Con: 239 (39.3%) +1.8%

Grn: 53 (8.7%) New

Lab: 33 (5.4%) -6.7%

LDem HOLD

Bow East, Tower Hamlets London Borough Council

Lab: 1,266 (53.3%) +6.1%

Grn: 722 (30.4%) +14.1%

Con: 239 (10.1%) +4.4%

LDem: 148 (6.2%) -2.3%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Herit = Heritage

PoW = Party of Women

Ind = Independents

POLICE & CRIME COMMISSIONERS 2024

The results of the police and crime commissioner elections will appear below as they come in.

Avon & Somerset

Clare Moody (Lab) 95,982 (32.3%) +8.6%

Mark Shelford (Con) 91,006 (30.6%) -4.1%

Katy Grant (Grn) 64,623 (21.7%) +5.3%

Benet Allen (LDem) 45,864 (15.4%) +2.0%

Lab GAIN from Con

Bedfordshire

John Tizard (Lab) 40,745 (40.5%) +5.5%

Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 35,688 (35.5%) -6.9%

Jasbir Singh Parmar (LDem) 15,857 (15.8%) -2.7%

Waheed Akbar (WkP) 8,396 (8.3%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Cambridgeshire

Darryl Preston (Con) 61,688 (38.1%) -4.8%

Anna Smith (Lab) 58,304 (36.0%) +4.7%

Edna Murphy (LDem) 41,984 (25.9%) +3.6%

Con HOLD

Cheshire

Dan Price (Lab) 86,279 (48.1%) +10.8%

John Dwyer (Con) 65,836 (36.7%) -7.9%

Paul Duffy (LDem) 27,342 (15.2%) +0.7%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cleveland

Matt Storey (Lab) 65,418 (52.6%) +23.7%

Steve Turner (Con) 58,977 (47.4%) -6.8%

Lab GAIN from Con

Cumbria

David Allen (Lab) 38,708 (47.4%) +21.3%

Mike Johnson (Con) 24,863 (30.4%) -23.1%

Adrian Waite (LDem) 18,100 (22.2%) +1.8%

Lab GAIN from Con

Derbyshire

Nicolle Ndiweni (Lab) 93,260 (43.6%) +6.1%

Angelique Foster (Con) 65,293 (30.5%) -25.5%

Russell Armstrong (RefUK) 32,944 (15.4%) +11.6%

David Hancock (LDem) 22,540 (12.1%) +2.8%

Lab GAIN from Con

Devon & Cornwall

Alison Hernandez (Con) 131,764 (43.3%) -6.7%

Daniel Steel (Lab) 107,897 (35.4%) +15.2%

Steve Lodge (LDem) 64,790 (21.3%) +3.4%

Con HOLD

Dorset

David Sidwick (Con) 57,994 (38.2%) -4.3%

Howard Legg (LDem) 34,774 (22.9%) +11.1%

Marianne Storey (Ind) 32,237 (21.2%) New

David Stokes (Lab) 26,884 (17.7%) +6.8%

Con HOLD

Durham

Joy Allen (Lab) 66,852 (56.0%) +12.2%

Rob Potts (Con) 37,773 (31.7%) -11.3%

Nigel Boddy (LDem) 14,678 (12.3%) -0.9%

Lab HOLD

Dyfed-Powys

Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) 31,323 (40.9%) -7.3%

Ian Harrison (Con) 19,134 (25.0%) -9.0%

Philippa Thompson (Lab) 18,353 (24.0%) +0.3%

Justin Griffiths (LDem) 7,719 (10.1%) +1.4%

Plaid HOLD

Essex

Roger Hirst (Con) 126,447 (37.1%) -16.9%

Adam Fox (Lab) 116,875 (34.3%) +11.4%

Kieron Franks (LDem) 52,922 (15.5%) +2.2%

Robin Tilbrook (EDem) 34,153 (13.2%) +3.4%

Con HOLD

Gloucestershire

Chris Nelson (Con) 47,838 (32.7%) -8.0%

Martin Surl (LDem) 46,352 (31.7%) +12.7%

Ashley Smith (Lab) 35,069 (24.0%) +7.9%

Matthew Randolph (Ind) 15,240 (10.4%) +10.4%

Con HOLD

Gwent

Jane Mudd (Lab) 28,476 (41.7%) -0.1%

Hannah Jarvis (Con) 21,919 (32.1%) +3.2%

Donna Cushing (Plaid) 9,864 (14.4%) -1.8%

Mike Hamilton (LDem) 8,078 (11.8%) +7.6%

Lab HOLD

Hampshire & Isle of Wight

Donna Jones (Con) 175,953 (42.3%) -7.5%

Becky Williams (Lab) 106,141 (25.5%) +6.2%

Prad Bains (LDem) 92,843 (22.3%) +4.5%

Don Jerrard (JAC) 40,691 (9.8%) New

Con HOLD

Hertfordshire

Jonathan Ash-Edwards (Con) 93,658 (36.7%) -11.8%

Sean Prendergast (LDem) 68,264 (26.7%) -0.7%

Tom Plater (Lab) 66,585 (26.1%) +2.0%

Matt Fisher (Grn) 26,714 (10.5%) New

 

Con HOLD

Humberside

Jonathan Evison (Con) 51,083 (39.7%) -5.9%

Simon O'Rourke (Lab) 46,846 (36.4%) -3.0%

Bob Morgan (LDem) 30,834 (24.0%) +8.9%

Con HOLD

Kent

Matthew Scott (Con) 120,491 (44.1%) -13.7%

Lenny Rolles (Lab) 92,508 (33.9%) +8.6%

Graham Colley (LDem) 60,279 (22.1%) +5.1%

Con HOLD

Lancashire

Clive Grunshaw (Lab) 135,638 (47.1%) +2.3%

Andrew Snowden (Con) 101,281 (35.1%) -6.5%

Neil Darby (LDem) 51,252 (17.8%) +9.0%

Lab GAIN from Con

Leicestershire

Rupert Matthews (Con) 62,280 (35.3%) -14.0%

Rory Palmer (Lab) 61,420 (34.8%) +1.5%

Aasiya Bora (Grn) 23,649 (13.4%) New

Ian Sharpe (LDem) 22,041 (12.5%) -5.0%

Fizza Askari (OneL) 7,104 (4.0%) New

Con HOLD

Lincolnshire

Marc Jones (Con) 39,639 (36.5%) -23.2%

Mike Horder (Lab) 31,931 (29.5%) +9.5%

Peter Escreet (RefUK) 15,518 (14.3%) +10.8%

Lesley Rollings (LDem) 13,380 (12.4%) +6.4%

David Dickason (EDem) 7,739 (7.2%) New

Con HOLD

Merseyside

Emily Spurrell (Lab) 152,640 (61.7%) +4.9%

Bob Teesdale (Con) 35,221 (14.2%) -8.6%

Amanda Onwuemene (Grn) 31,330 (12.7%) +12.7%

Christopher Carubia (LDem) 28,093 (11.4%) -5.2%

Lab HOLD

Norfolk

Sarah Taylor (Lab) 52,445 (35.2%) +13.1%

Giles Orpen-Smellie (Con) 50,567 (33.9%) -11.2%

Martin Schmierer (Grn) 23,628 (15.8%) +5.6%

John Crofts (LDem) 22,525 (15.1%) +1.4%

Lab GAIN from Con

Northamptonshire

Danielle Stone (Lab) 43,684 (39.3%) +11.8%

Martyn Emberson (Con) 39,714 (35.7%) -17.5%

Ana Savage Gunn (LDem) 27,799 (25.0%) +9.7%

Lab GAIN from Con

Northumbria

Susan Dungworth (Lab) 176,311 (51.0%) +4.4%

Ros Munro (Con) 78,818 (22.8%) -8.1%

John Appleby (LDem) 58,574 (17.0%) +6.3%

Mustaque Rahman (Ind) 31,773 (9.2%) New

Lab HOLD

North Wales

Andy Dunbobbin (Lab) 31,950 (36.0%) +6.9%

Brian Jones (Con) 26,281 (29.6%) -2.0%

Ann Griffith (Plaid) 23,466 (26.4%) -2.0%

Richard Marbrow (LDem) 7,129 (8.0%) +3.7%

Lab HOLD

Nottinghamshire

Gary Godden (Lab) 119,355 (52.1%) +8.6%

Caroline Henry (Con) 77,148 (33.7%) -14.2%

David Watts (LDem) 32,410 (14.2%) +5.5%

Lab GAIN from Con

South Wales

Emma Wools (Lab) 73,128 (45.2%) +4.2%

George Carroll (Con) 43,344 (26.8%) +2.5%

Dennis Clarke (Plaid) 27,410 (16.9%) -2.1%

Sam Bennett (LDem) 17,908 (11.1%) +6.5%

Lab HOLD

Staffordshire

Ben Adams (Con) 73,500 (45.6%) -10.1%

Alastair Watson (Lab) 70,128 (43.5%) +16.0%

Alec Sandiford (LDem) 17,666 (11.0%) +6.6%

Con HOLD

Suffolk

Tim Passmore (Con) 52,968 (40.2%) -14.5%

Robin Wales (Lab) 41,734 (31.7%) +8.7%

Rachel Smith-Lyte (Grn) 22,488 (17.1%) +3.5%

James Sandbach (LDem) 14,541 (11.0%) -2.8%

Con HOLD

Surrey

Lisa Townsend (Con) 95,538 (36.0%) +2.5%

Paul Kennedy (LDem) 82,213 (30.9%) +10.2%

Kate Chinn (Lab) 42,813 (16.1%) +0.2%

Alex Coley (Ind) 42,052 (15.8%) New

Con HOLD

Sussex

Katy Bourne (Con) 122,495 (39.0%) -8.3%

Paul Richards 99,502 (31.7%) +13.0%

Jamie Bennett (LDem) 48,923 (15.6%) +1.7%

Jonathan Kent (Grn) 43,105 (13.7%) +0.3%

Con HOLD

Thames Valley

Matthew Barber (Con) 144,092 (32.1%) -10.4%

Tim Starkey (Lab) 141,749 (31.6%) +3.8%

Tim Bearder (LDem) 84,341 (18.8%) +1.3%

Ben Holden-Crowther (MPTV) 46,853 (10.4%) New

Russell Douglas Fowler (Ind) 31,460 (7.0%) New

Con HOLD

Warwickshire

Philip Seccomb (Con) 45,638 (39.4%) -12.7%

Labour Co-op Sarah Feeney (Lab) 45,377 (39.2%) +11.5%

Richard Dickson (LDem) 24,867 (21.5%) +5.3%

Con HOLD

West Mercia

John-Paul Campion (Con) 73,395 (34.3%) -21.0%

Richard Overton (Lab) 63,082 (29.5%) +5.5%

Sarah Murray (LDem) 33,782 (15.8%) +0.2%

Julian Dean (Grn) 22,021 (10.3%) New

Henry Curteis (EDem) 21,645 (10.1%) New

Con HOLD

West Midlands

Simon Foster (Lab) 327,844 (57.5%) +12.0%

Tom Byrne (Con) 241,827 (42.5%) +3.1%

Lab HOLD

Wiltshire

Philip Wilkinson (Con) 38,578 (31.0%) -5.0%

Stanka Adamcova (Lab) 36,345 (29.2%) +14.9%

Mike Rees (Ind) 29,035 (23.3%) -4.5%

Alan Hagger (LDem) 20,485 (16.5%) -3.3%

Con HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 03.11.22

Seven seats were on offer this week in six by-elections.  The Conservatives were defending four and lost three.  They held in Croydon, but their vote share plummeted.  They lost to Labour in Lichfield, the Lib Dems in Wiltshire and an independent in Nottinghamshire.  In Wiltshire and Nottinghamshire they slipped to third place.

There was better news for the Tories in South Cambridgeshire, where they took one of two seats the Lib Dems were defending.

In Moray the SNP gained a seat from the Lib Dems in an intriguing contest.  In May's local elections the Lib Dems, SNP and Conservatives each put forward a candidate for three vacancies.  As they were the only three candidates, they were all elected unopposed.  The Lib Dem winner since resigned, hence the by-election.  The Lib Dems came nowhere, leaving the SNP to do battle with an impressive Tory turnout.

Absentees in this week's polls were the Greens in Nottinghamshire and Wiltshire, and the Lib Dems in Nottinghamshire.

Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, Croydon London Borough Council

Con: 983 (46.3%) -21.2%

Grn: 530 (24.9%) +8.8%

Lab: 372 (17.5%) +1.0%

Ind: 168 (7.9%) New

LDem: 72 (3.4%) New

Con HOLD

Chasetown, Lichfield District Council

Lab: 318 (73.3%) +15.2%

Con: 116 (26.7%) -15.2%

Lab GAIN from Con

Buckie, Moray Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,172 (48.9%)

Con: 879 (36.7%)

Lab: 239 (10.0%)

LDem: 67 (2.8%)

Ind: 38 (1.6%)

SNP GAIN from LDem (elected at stage 4)

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire County Council

Ind: 1,223 (43.1%) New

Lab: 1,182 (41.7%) -0.1%

Con: 431 (15.2%) -31.2%

Ind GAIN from Con

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire District Council

(two seats)

LDem: 578 (16.9%) elected

Con: 566 (16.5%) elected

LDem: 534 (15.6%)

Ind: 422 (12.3%)

Lab: 411 (12.0%)

Con: 394 (11.5%)

Lab: 266 (7.8%)

Grn: 169 (4.9%)

Grn: 85 (2.5%)

LDem HOLD

Con GAIN from LDem

Salisbury St Paul’s, Wiltshire Council

LDem: 813 (64.8%) +34.8%

Lab: 237 (18.5%) -3.3%

Con: 213 (16.6%) -15.6%

LDem GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 18.08.22

Just two council seats were up for grabs this week - a Lib Dem defence in Cambridgeshire and a Conservative defence in Lancashire.  The Lib Dems easily held in Cambridge, increasing their majority in the Trumpington ward.  However, the Conservatives were shocked in Wyre, where an independent candidate came from nowhere to take the blue seat.  Labour also saw their share of the vote slump here.

Trumpington, Cambridge City Council

LDem: 1,017 (49.8%) +11.8%

Lab: 472 (23.1%) -4.5%

Grn: 298 (14.6%) -3.1%

Con: 256 (12.5%) -4.2%

LDem HOLD

Preesall, Wyre Council

Ind: 595 (39.5%) New

Con: 495 (32.8%) -29.9%

Lab: 315 (20.9%) -16.4%

Ind: 102 (6.8%) New

Ind GAIN from Con