COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.04.26

It was all about Reform this week, with the party defending both of the two vacant seats.  After last week's surprise loss to the Greens, they were looking for a pair of holds and to prevent Polanski's crazy gang from hijacking their momentum.  Both vacancies arose through resignations of incumbents elected last May, both ostensibly on health grounds.  In Leicestershire the Reform councillor had been forced to issue a statement as to the motive for his departure, after it was linked to his poor attendance record.  The Northumberland councillor had also been accused of poor attendance, in addition to a lack of engagement with local residents.  Having confirmed he is being treated for kidney cancer, perhaps they could have cut him a little slack.

We expected podium finishes in Northumberland to go to Reform, the Conservatives and Greens, and probably in that order.  We also predicted a narrow Tory gain in Leicestershire, but as it turned out we got the results the wrong way around.  The narrow Tory gain actually came in Northumberland and Labour kept the Greens down in fourth place.

The Reform hold in Leicestershire was quite comfortable, with the party more than a thousand votes in front of the second placed Conservatives.  The presence of Advance UK did nothing to dent Reform's performance, with their rivals finishing in last place with just 28 votes.

Results have been slow to appear this week as we were both attending a funeral on Friday.

Narborough & Whetstone, Leicestershire County Council

Ref: 1,033 (33.0%) -9.3%

Con: 927 (29.6%) +5.1%

Grn: 884 (28.2%) +13.4%

LDm: 134 (4.3%) -3.6%

Lab: 124 (4.0%) -4.8%

Adv: 28 (0.9%) New

Ref HOLD

Cramlington South West, Northumberland County Council

Con: 278 (34.2%) +9.0%

Ref: 212 (26.1%) -13.3%

Lab: 187 (23.0%) -5.8%

Grn: 116 (14.3%) New

Ind: 13 (1.6%) New

LDm: 7 (0.9%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

COUNCIL RESULTS

23 council authorities held elections on Thursday, the vast majority of them county councils.  Labour were defending just one - the City of Doncaster - which they lost to Reform with a huge swing.  Ed Miliband and the rest of the local Labour MPs are likely to be toast based on these results, although a lot can change in four years.

The astonishing level of support for Reform meant that zero councils at the start of the day turned into ten by the end of it.  Eight of those gains came from the Conservatives, who had an exceptionally torrid day, losing control of every single council they were defending.  While Reform had an overall net gain of 677 council seats, the Tories had a net loss of 676.  It's no coincidence that these two figures are so close.  Reform are not just a threat to Labour, they are demolishing the Conservatives as well.

The only other party that won control of any councils on Thursday was the Lib Dems, who gained three in total.

The results are as follows.  The figures provided are the total number of council seats won per party and the difference in brackets from previous local elections.

Buckinghamshire County Council

Con: 46 (-31)

LDm: 27 (+19)

Ind: 13 (+6)

Lab: 5 (+1)

Ref: 3 (+3)

Grn: 3 (+2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Cambridgeshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+11)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Con: 10 (-18)

Lab: 5 (-4)

Grn: 3 (+3)

Ind: 2 (-2)

LDm GAIN from NOC

City of Doncaster Council

Ref: 37 (+37)

Lab: 12 (-28)

Con: 6 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Lab

Cornwall Council

Ref: 28 (+28)

LDm: 26 (+13)

Ind: 16 (n/c)

Con: 7 (-40)

Lab: 4 (-1)

Grn: 3 (+2)

MebK: 3 (-2)

NOC HOLD

Derbyshire County Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 12 (-33)

LDm: 3 (-1)

Lab: 3 (-11)

Ind: 2 (+2)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Devon County Council

LDm: 27 (+18)

Ref: 18 (+18)

Con: 7 (-32)

Grn: 6 (+4)

Ind: 2 (-1)

Lab: 0 (-7)

NOC GAIN from Con

Durham County Council

Ref: 65 (+65)

LDm: 14 (+1)

Ind: 12 (-14)

Lab: 4 (-38)

Grn: 2 (+1)

Con: 1 (-15)

Ref GAIN from NOC

Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 27 (+11)

Ref: 11 (+11)

Grn: 9 (+5)

Con: 6 (-24)

Ind: 1 (+1)

Lab: 1 (-4)

NOC HOLD

Hertfordshire County Council

LDm: 31 (+8)

Con: 22 (-24)

Ref: 14 (+14)

Grn: 5 (+4)

Lab: 5 (-2)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

Kent County Council

Ref: 57 (+57)

LDm: 12 (+6)

Grn: 5 (+1)

Con: 5 (-57)

Lab: 2 (-5)

Ind: 0 (-1)

RA: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Lancashire County Council

Ref: 53 (+53)

Ind: 9 (+9)

Con: 8 (-40)

Lab: 5 (-27)

LDm: 5 (+3)

Grn: 4 (+2)

Ref GAIN from Con

Leicestershire County Council

Ref: 25 (+25)

Con: 15 (-27)

LDm: 11 (+2)

Lab: 2 (-2)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (+1)

NOC GAIN from Con

Lincolnshire County Council

Ref: 44 (+44)

Con: 14 (-40)

LDm: 5 (+2)

Ind: 4 (-5)

Lab: 3 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

North Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 39 (+39)

Con: 13 (-37)

Grn: 8 (+5)

Lab: 4 (-8)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

LDm: 1 (+1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Northumberland County Council

Con: 26 (-10)

Ref: 23 (+23)

Lab: 8 (-12)

Ind: 7 (-1)

LDm: 3 (n/c)

Grn 2 (n/c)

NOC HOLD

Nottinghamshire County Council

Ref: 40 (+40)

Con: 17 (-19)

Lab: 4 (-10)

Ind: 2 (-1)

RA: 1 (-9)

LDm: 0 (-1)

Ref GAIN from Con

Oxfordshire County Council

LDm: 36 (+12)

Lab: 12 (-3)

Con: 10 (-15)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Ind: 2 (+1)

Ref: 1 (+1)

RA: 1 (n/c)

LDm GAIN from NOC

Shropshire County Council

LDm: 42 (+29)

Ref: 16 (+16)

Con: 7 (-38)

Grn: 4 (n/c)

Lab: 4 (-5)

Ind: 1 (-2)

LDm GAIN from Con

Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 49 (+49)

Con: 10 (-46)

Grn: 1 (+1)

Ind: 1 (n/c)

Lab: 0 (-4)

Ref GAIN from Con

Warwickshire County Council

Ref: 23 (+23)

LDm: 14 (+9)

Con: 9 (-33)

Grn: 7 (+4)

Lab: 3 (-3)

RA: 1 (n/c)

NOC GAIN from Con

West Northamptonshire Council

Ref: 42 (+42)

Con: 17 (-35)

Lab: 9 (-9)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Ref GAIN from Con

Wiltshire County Council

LDm: 43 (+16)

Con: 37 (-24)

Ref: 10 (+10)

Ind: 7 (n/c)

Lab: 1 (-2)

NOC GAIN from Con

Worcestershire County Council

Ref: 27 (+27)

Con: 12 (-33)

Grn: 8 (+5)

LDm: 6 (+2)

Ind: 2 (n/c)

Lab: 2 (-1)

NOC GAIN from Con

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.03.22

It was no change in last night's by-elections with all the incumbent parties holding seats.  In the south of England the Lib Dems held both their defences with slightly reduced margins.  Labour held easily in Kent and appeared to take advantage of the absence of Green and UKIP candidates.

The Conservatives held a seat in Northumberland, where newcomers the Greens and Lib Dems siphoned off the Labour vote.

Denne, Horsham District Council

LDem: 832 (46.0%) -4.9%

Con: 628 (34.7%) +0.3%

Lab: 241 (13.3%) -1.2%

Grn: 107 (5.9%) New

LDem HOLD

Seghill with Seaton Delaval, Northumberland County Council

Con: 702 (55.6%) +1.1%

Lab: 511 (40.5%) -5.1%

Grn: 29 (2.3%) New

LDem: 21 (1.7%) New

Con HOLD

North Baddesley, Test Valley Borough Council

LDem: 1,095 (63.9%) -3.6%

Con: 618 (36.1%) +3.6%

LDem HOLD

Nethercourt, Thanet District Council

Lab: 505 (55.5%) +16.8%

Con: 230 (25.3%) -1.7%

Ind: 175 (19.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ind = Independents

BY-ELECTIONS 16.12.21

A huge swing to the Liberal Democrats in North Shropshire dealt a crushing blow to the embattled Conservatives in Thursday's Westminster by-election.  The Lib Dems came third here in 2019, but swept to victory in a previously safe Tory seat, more than trebling their vote from 5,643 to 17,957.  Labour slumped to an embarrassing third place, dropping 8,806 votes in a further blow to Keir Starmer's uninspiring leadership.

Helen Morgan is the first non-Tory to ever win this rural seat, first created in 1832, abolished in 1876 and then re-established in 1983.  The Conservative majority in 2019 was 22,949.

North Shropshire

Helen Morgan (LDem) 17,957 (47.2%) +37.2%

Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con) 12,032 (31.6%) -31.1%

Ben Wood (Lab) 3,686 (9.7%) -12.4%

Duncan Kerr (Grn) 1,738 (4.6%) +1.4%

Kirsty Walmsley (RefUK) 1,427 (3.8%) New

Andrea Allen (UKIP) 378 (1.0%) New

Martin Daubney (Rec) 375 (1.0%) New

Alan Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 118 (0.3%) New

Suzie Akers-Smith (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

James Elliot (Herit) 79 (0.2%) New

Boris Been Bunged (Rejoin) 58 (0.2%) New

Earl Jesse (Freedom) 57 (0.1%) New

Russell Dean 19 (Party) 0.1 New

Yolande Kenward (Ind) 3 (0.0%) New

There were twelve council by-elections on Thursday - seven Conservative defences, four Labour defences and a free-for-all.

Of those seven Tory defences, they lost four and held three.  Of those four defeats, they lost three to the Lib Dems and one to the Greens.

Labour held three of their four defences (although one of those wins is now void).  They lost a seat to an independent who came from nowhere to win a seat in South Wales.  Labour also gained the free-for-all in Middlesbrough after the independent incumbent had vacated the seat.

Now, let's discuss that void result in Walsall.  The contest was a straightforward battle between Labour and the Tories.  However, the Labour candidate was employed by Walsall Council and should have resigned prior to the election in order to be eligible to serve as a councillor.  Having failed to do so, she could not accept the post she had easily won.  Simran Cheema apologised to ward residents and claimed that she had been unaware her part-time job at a Walsall library barred her from standing.  The farce cost an estimated £20,000 and the seat will now remain vacant until the next local elections in May 2022.

Labour's Simran Cheema at last night's count in Walsall, which turned out to be
a costly waste of time

Lomond North, Argyll and Bute Council

(First preference votes)

Con: 742 (40.7%) +11.3%

SNP: 459 (25.2%) +5.0%

Ind: 418 (22.9%) New

Ind: 259 (11.2%) New

Con HOLD (elected at stage 4)

Highfield, Ashford Borough Council

Grn: 191 (40.0%) +21.2%

Con: 163 (34.1%) -7.0%

Ind: 101 (21.1%) -7.4%

Lab: 23 (4.8%) New

Grn GAIN from Con

Caerau, Bridgend County Borough Council

Ind: 515 (48.8%) New

Lab: 441 (41.8%) -6.4%

Plaid: 82 (7.8%) -10.7%

Con: 18 (1.7%) New

Ind GAIN from Lab

Roffey South, Horsham District Council

LDem: 462 (41.5%) +0.6%

Con: 335 (30.1%) -11.4%

Grn: 222 (19.9%) New

Lab: 95 (8.5%) -9.1%

LDem GAIN from Con

Armitage with Handsacre, Lichfield District Council

Con: 458 (60.3%) -2.2%

Lab: 301 (39.7%) +2.2%

Con HOLD 

Rochester East, Medway Council

Lab: 870 (63.3%) +15.2%

Con: 388 (28.2%) +8.7%

Grn: 69 (5.0%) -9.2%

LDem: 48 (3.5%) -2.8%

Lab HOLD

North Ormesby, Middlesbrough Council

Lab: 172 (74.5%) +47.7%

Ind: 32 (13.9%) +13.9%

Con: 20 (8.7%) +5.5%

LDem: 7 (3.0%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Hexham East, Northumberland County Council

LDem: 584 (47.3%) +11.7%

Con: 370 (30.0%) -13.9%

Lab: 154 (12.5%) -8.1%

Ind: 127 (10.3%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Dawley & Aqueduct, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 996 (55.8%) -6.1%

Con: 735 (41.2%) +3.0%

LDem: 55 (3.1%) +3.1%

Lab HOLD

Pleck, Walsall Council

Lab: 698 (64.6%) -15.5%

Con: 382 (35.4%) +15.5%

Lab HOLD (election VOID due to ineligibility of Labour candidate)

Tilehurst South & Holybrook, West Berkshire Council

Con: 548 (42.3%) -15.6%

Lab: 387 (29.9%) +4.8%

LDem: 359 (27.7%) +10.8%

Con HOLD

Nettleham, West Lindsey District Council

LDem: 585 (51.0%) +1.2%

Con: 374 (32.6%) -17.5%

Lab: 116 (10.1%) New

Grn: 71 (6.2%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

RefUK = Reform UK

UKIP = UK Independence Party

Rec = Reclaim

Loon = Monster Raving Loony

Herit = Heritage

Rejoin = Rejoin EU

Freedom = Freedom Alliance

Party = The Party Party

SNP = Scottish National Party

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents