DE PIERO ADMITS NO DEAL CULPABILITY

Ex-Labour MP Gloria De Piero has expressed regret that she did not back Theresa May's Brexit deal last year.  With a no deal exit drawing closer, the former Ashfield MP said she 'was an idiot' for not backing it.  She concurred with The Independent's John Rentoul, who tweeted a piece he wrote last year that predicted a December election that Boris could win - ultimately leading to the no deal Brexit Labour MPs were so vehemently against.

While the overwhelming majority of her colleagues blocked Brexit at every turn last year, De Piero increasingly softened her stance as the year progressed.  Her Nottinghamshire constituency backed Leave in a big way (70 per cent), but despite her opposition to a second referendum she chose to stand down rather than defend her seat.  It was a good call as Ashfield fell to the Tories and Labour crashed to third.

It's highly doubtful that De Piero's colleagues (especially those who survived December the 12th) will be so forthright in bearing responsibility for the dreaded no deal they spent so long telling us would be catastrophic.

NANDY VISITS ASHFIELD

Lisa Nandy spent Monday visiting former Labour voters in the Nottinghamshire constituency of Ashfield.  There's little doubt that she's gearing up for a leadership campaign with this latest stunt.  Accompanied by the former Labour MP for Ashfield, Nandy was told by one former Labour voter that people didn't want to return to the chaotic 1970s with Corbyn's policies.  Another told her that Labour no longer cared for the north and was now the party of students and inner London.  Watch below.

Gloria De Piero was Ashfield's incumbent going into this election and had a wafer thin majority.  She stood down rather than contest the seat and it turned out to be a wise move.  The Labour vote plummeted and the Tories ended up taking the seat despite haemorrhaging 1,600 votes themselves.  It was a strange place to come to be asking voters why they switched to the Conservatives because in this case most Labour votes were lost to the Ashfield Independents who finished second.

Ashfield general election 2019

Lee Anderson (Con) 19,231 (39.3%) -2.4%
Jason Zadrozny (Ind) 13,498 (27.6%) +18.4%
Natalie Fleet (Lab) 11,971 (24.4%) -18.1%
Martin Daubney (Brexit) 2,501 (5.1%) New
Rebecca Wain (Lib Dem) 1,105 (2.3%) +0.3%
Rose Woods (Green) 674 (1.4%) +0.6%

DE PIERO'S POLL SNIPE

Ashfield MP Gloria De Piero is no fan of Jeremy Corbyn, but she revealed just how deep that resentment goes with one click yesterday.  Over on Twitter we noticed that she'd liked a new Opinium poll that suggested Labour had slipped a further three points behind the Tories.

De Piero is standing down at the next election citing a "lack of tolerance" in the party, so she clearly has nothing to lose now.  She was also one of the 19 rebels who voted in favour of the withdrawal agreement last week.  Once again the Labour trolls appear incapable of realising that actions have consequences.

De Piero's constituency is definitely one to watch when the next election comes around.  Ashfield is the top marginal in Nottinghamshire and returned a whopping 70% Leave vote in 2016.  Labour should be dead certs to lose this seat at the next election, except they almost certainly won't.  The Brexit Party have identified this as one of their top targets, selecting prominent MEP Martin Daubney as their candidate.  They will do well, but will split the Tory vote so much that Labour will probably increase their majority, rather than lose the seat.  This is just another fine example of why it is vital that Boris comes to his senses and does a deal with the Brexit Party.

Ashfield general election 2017

Gloria De Piero (Lab) 21,285 (42.6%) +1.6%
Tony Harper (Con) 20,844 (41.7%) +19.3%
Gail Turner (Ind) 4,612 (9.2%) New
Ray Young (UKIP) 1,885 (3.8%) -17.6%
Bob Charlesworth (Lib Dem) 969 (1.9%) -12.9%
Arran Rangi (Green) 398 (0.8%) New

ODDS SHORTENING ON BREXIT DEAL

The bookies now have Boris Johnson's revised withdrawal agreement passing tomorrow as 'odds on'.  Ladbrokes and Coral have the ayes at 8/11, while Betfred and Paddy Power have 4/6.  There's clearly not much in it as the same bookies have the deal failing at evens (Ladbrokes/Coral), 11/10 (Paddy Power) and 6/5 (Betfred).  However, all major bookmakers report that odds of the deal passing are shortening and odds of it failing are drifting, albeit it's worth noting that this doesn't take into account potentially fatal amendments that would pave the way for another Brexit delay.

The shortening of odds may have something to do with the tiny trickle of Labour MPs voicing their support for the deal throughout the afternoon and into this evening.  With the DUP and every opposition party opposed to the deal, Boris will need as many Labour rebels as possible to get his deal through.  Labour MPs who have either indicated or are expected to vote in favour of the agreement are as follows:

Ronnie Campbell
Sarah Champion (expected)
Jim Fitzpatrick (expected)
Caroline Flint (expected)
John Mann
Melanie Onn

Others who are keeping their cards close to their chest include Kevin Barron, Gloria De Piero, Stevie Kinnock, Stephanie Peacock, Ruth Smeeth, Gareth Snell and Graham Stringer.

Several independents are also undeclared, but it's highly likely that Ian Austin, Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins will back the government.

Threats such as this one will have no impact at all on the way that I vote.

But I do have a question for Jon, as a vocal supporter of local member led democracy, why did you think it was appropriate to not shortlist ANY local members for the upcoming selection in Rother Valley? https://t.co/og4o7kjtyM

— Kevin Barron MP (@KevinBarronMP) October 18, 2019

My constituent Graham Norman just came to my surgery. He is a lifelong Unite member who voted Leave. He begged me to vote for a deal tomorrow. I haven’t decided what I’ll do but when I look at some people’s comments on twitter calling people like him a Tory - I despair pic.twitter.com/D46z07KHwb

— Gloria De Piero (@GloriaDePiero) October 18, 2019

And here is Jason, another Ashfield Labour member who voted to Leave. He is just as much of a socialist as those Labour members who voted to Remain. https://t.co/UuAs53q73U

— Gloria De Piero (@GloriaDePiero) October 18, 2019

Every single one of these MPs have faced the full keyboard tapping fury of anti-Brexit Labour activists and Remainers at large.  The bile and hate that has spewed forth will hopefully toughen their resolve, but we don't have long to wait now.  One thing is for sure - if biased Bercow and his Remain Alliance have anything to do with it, proceedings will be far from simple.