COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 20.11.25

Seven seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with Labour on the defence in the north Yorkshire borough of Redcar and Cleveland.  No-one had come close to unseating Labour in this ward previously, but the Reform juggernaut was new in town and they missed out on a gain by a margin of just 25 votes!

Labour were also on the defence in Macclesfield, where the disgraced incumbent was elected on their ticket in 2019.  Cllr Ashley Farrall was suspended by the party last year after being charged with assaulting his partner.  He was cleared of the charge, but later convicted of perverting the course of justice and is now serving a twelve month sentence.  Labour had a huge majority here, but the Green Party dislodged them with a huge swing.

Elsewhere, there were some interesting results.  North of the border, a free-for-all election went to the Conservatives, despite finishing second to Reform on first preference votes.  By the time all the transfer votes were whittled down, the Tory candidate pipped Reform to what would have been a stunning victory first time out.

Reform fared even better south of the border, taking two Tory seats - one of which by the ultra thin margin of three votes.  The merry-go-round continued in Greater Manchester, where the Tories usurped the Green Party.  Despite Trafford Council being under Labour for six years, they did not even bother contesting this seat.

Labour's vote was down everywhere they stood, including a pathetic nine votes in one of two Warwickshire seats.

Macclesfield Central, Cheshire East District Council

Grn: 750 (41.8%) +19.7%

Lab: 513 (28.6%) -25.7%

Ref: 283 (15.8%) New

Con: 164 (9.1%) -4.5%

Eql: 45 (2.5%) New

LDm: 40 (2.2%) -7.7%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Stranraer and the Rhins, Dumfries and Galloway Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,386 (34.4%) New

Con: 1,302 (33.5%) -7.4%

SNP: 541 (13.9%) -9.1%

Lab: 239 (6.1%) -3.7%

Ind: 207 (5.3%) New

Grn: 141 (3.6%) +1.1%

LDm: 96 (2.5%) New

Hrt: 27 (0.7%) New

Con GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 7)

Ashdown & Conquest, East Sussex County Council

Ref: 797 (32.2%) New

Grn: 607 (24.5%) +16.4%

Con: 494 (19.9%) -39.8%

Lab: 395 (15.9%) -7.4%

LDm: 129 (5.2%) -3.5%

Ind: 55 (2.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

South Bank, Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council

Lab: 368 (47.4%) -17.8%

Ref: 344 (44.3%) New

Con: 64 (8.2%) -4.3%

Lab HOLD

Quinton, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

LDm: 437 (47.3%) +3.5%

Ref: 306 (33.1%) New

Con: 137 (14.8%) -26.2%

Grn: 35 (3.8%) -4.7%

Lab: 9 (1.0%) -5.7%

LDm HOLD

Salford Priors & Alcester Rural, Stratford-on-Avon District Council

Ref: 272 (33.3%) New

LDm: 269 (32.9%) +9.7%

Con: 227 (27.8%) -29.1%

Grn: 31 (3.8%) -5.3%

Lab: 18 (2.2%) -8.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

Hale, Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,521 (46.5%) +9.8%

Grn: 1,245 (38.1%) -9.6%

Ref: 264 (0.1%) New

LDm: 101 (3.1%) -0.6%

Con GAIN from Grn

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Eql = Equality

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Hrt = Heritage

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 18.09.25

Five seats were all being defended by the left on Thursday - four of which were Labour.  Labour managed to lose three of those four seats - one each to the Greens, Reform and an independent.  The one seat they held was by the narrowest of margins - just 13 votes ahead of the Lib Dems.

Reform picked up yet another seat in the red wall of south Wales, a key battleground as they look to emerge as the largest party in next May's Senedd elections.  Labour finished a humiliating third place in that Cardiff election.  Equally humiliating was a defeat in one of their London strongholds.  They were unseated by a Newham Independent on debut, who received more than double the Labour vote.  Newham is a council Labour have controlled since 1971 and held 58 of 66 seats.

The Greens capped off their Brighton gain from Labour with an easy hold in Warwick.

Queen's Park, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 1,133 (48.4%) +19.9%

Lab: 729 (31.1%) -15.0%

Ref: 237 (10.1%) New

LDm: 98 (4.2%) +1.7%

Con: 82 (3.5%) -2.7%

Ind: 64 (2.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Trowbridge, Cardiff City Council

Ref: 1,142 (39.6%) New

LDm: 681 (23.6%) +15.9%

Lab: 615 (21.3%) -31.2%

Pld: 223 (7.7%) -3.5%

Con: 90 (3.1%) -14.8%

Grn: 67 (2.3%) -8.2%

Ppl: 63 (2.2%) -4.5%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Plaistow South, Newham London Borough Council

Ind: 913 (44.7%) New

Lab: 436 (21.4%) -34.0%

Ref: 328 (16.1%) New

Grn: 152 (7.4%) -8.4%

Con: 123 (6.0%) -11.5%

LDm: 90 (4.4%) -6.9%

Ind GAIN from Lab

Kenilworth Park Hill, Warwick District Council

Grn: 1,006 (40.3%) -7.2%

Con: 588 (23.6%) -4.0%

Ref: 447 (18.1%) New

LDm: 344 (13.9%) +2.2%

Lab: 81 (3.3%) -9.5%

Grn HOLD

Leamington Clarendon, Warwick District Council

Lab: 574 (30.3%) -21.4%

LDm: 561 (29.6%) +14.7%

Ref: 309 (16.3%) New

Grn: 240 (12.7%) -2.1%

Con: 140 (7.4 %) -9.2%

Ind: 72 (3.8%) New

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Grn = Green

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Pld = Plaid Cymu

Ppl = Propel

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.07.25

Ten seats were up for election this week, all in England.  Labour were defending two seats and lost both to Reform, who also gained a seat from independents in Gloucestershire.  Labour's vote share was down in all seven seats it contested, ranging from a 4.6 per cent decrease in Surrey, to 27.8 per cent in Nottinghamshire.  The party finished last in two seats.

Elsewhere, there was no change as the Lib Dems held all four of its seats and the Greens successfully defended a seat in East Sussex, fending off Reform by 50 votes.

Ranskill, Bassetlaw District Council

Ref: 323 (52.7%) New

Lab: 89 (15.7%) -27.8%

Con: 66 (14.5%) -42.0%

Ind: 44 (7.2%) New

LDm: 40 (6.5%) New

Grn: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Throston, Hartlepool Borough Council

Ref: 595 (48.7%) +32.5%

Lab: 475 (38.8%) -23.7%

Grn: 62 (5.1%) New

Con: 59 (4.8%) -16.6%

LDm: 32 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Isle of Wight Council

Ind: 475 (48.1%) New

Ref: 225 (22.9%) New

Con: 153 (15.6%) -4.7%

LDm: 53 (5.4%) New

Vec: 46 (4.7%) New

Lab: 33 (3.4%) -8.9%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Bookham East & Eastwick Park, Mole Valley District Council

LDm: 1,056 (56.0%) -6.6%

Ref: 387 (20.5%) New

Con: 386 (20.5%) -10.1%

Grn: 56 (3.0%) -1.5%

LDm HOLD

Keppel, Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 1,160 (40.3%) New

Ind: 801 (27.8%) -1.9%

Lab: 558 (19.4%) -13.4%

Con: 105 (3.6%) -6.9%

Yrk: 100 (3.5%) -7.8%

LDm: 80 (2.8%) -1.4%

Grn: 77 (2.7%) -7.1%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Woking South, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,939 (63.8%) +5.8%

Ref: 584 (19.2%) New

Con: 291 (9.6%) -16.0%

Grn: 134 (4.4%) -2.5%

Lab: 91 (3.0%) -4.6%

LDm HOLD

Northway, Tewkesbury Borough Council

Ref: 374 (41.4%) New

LDm: 279 (30.9%) +7.0%

Con: 116 (12.8%) -11.6%

Grn: 91 (10.1%) New

Lab: 44 (4.9%) -15.8%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Botley & Sunningwell, Vale of White Horse District Council

LDm: 732 (71.5%) +7.9%

Con: 162 (15.8%) -1.8%

Grn: 130 (12.7%) +11.2%

LDm HOLD

Horam & Punnetts Town, Wealden District Council

Grn: 611 (35.9%) -29.0%

Ref: 561 (32.9%) New

Con: 336 (20.2%) -15.0%

Ind: 188 (11.0%) New

Grn HOLD

Hoe Valley, Woking Borough Council

LDm: 1,118 (63.3%) -8.1%

Ref: 379 (21.1%) New

Con: 130 (7.2%) -9.0%

Lab: 83 (3.8%) -8.6%

Grn: 69 (4.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

Vec = Vectis

Yrk = Yorkshire

Ind = Independents and residents' groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 26.06.25

A whopping ten by-elections were held this week, from Edinburgh in the north to Sussex in the south.  Labour were defending half the seats and finished the day on just one, a hold in Stevenage.  Labour's vote share was down in every single seat, from a marginal decrease of 1.7 per cent in Edinburgh to a crushing 34.3 per cent in Chorley, Lancs.

Reform continued their good form, with gains in Basildon and Rossendale from local independents and also taking a Labour seat in Sheffield.  In all three seats they came from nowhere to win first time round.

The other Labour losses came at the hands of the Greens in London, Conservatives in Chorley and Lib Dems in Edinburgh.  Labour enjoyed a narrow lead in Edinburgh on the first round, but eventually lost out to the Lib Dems thanks to Scotland's single transferable vote system.

Wickford Park, Basildon Borough Council

Ref: 922 (40.6%) New

Con: 840 (37.0%) +6.1%

LDm: 171 (7.5%) -6.8%

Ind: 148 (6.5%) -25.4%

Lab: 146 (6.4%) -16.4%

Grn: 43 (1.9%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Buckshaw & Whittle, Chorley Borough Council

Con: 576 (35.5%) +3.2%

Ref: 530 (32.7%) New

Lab: 412 (25.4%) -34.3%

Grn: 103 (6.4%) -1.6%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart, Edinburgh City Council

(first preferences)

Lab: 1,293 (20.8%) -1.7%

LDm: 1,269 (20.4%) +13.3%

Grn: 1,133 (18.2%) -1.7%

SNP: 905 (14.5%) -8.2%

Con: 857 (13.8%) -12.8%

Ref: 489 (7.9%) New

Ind: 111 (1.8%) New

Ind: 39 (0.6%) New

Ind: 36 (0.6%) New

SFP: 34 (0.5%) -0.2%

SLP: 25 (0.4%) -0.1%

Ind: 25 (0.4%) New

Ind: 9 (0.1%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 13)

Shooters Hill, Greenwich London Borough Council

Grn: 869 (34.6%) +19.5%

Lab: 756 (30.1%) -29.1%

Ref: 402 (16.0%) +13.2%

Con: 288 (11.5%) -2.4%

LDm: 128 (5.1%) -3.6%

Ind: 57 (2.3%) New

Ind: 9 (0.4%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Crediton Lawrence, Mid Devon District Council

LDm: 540 (64.9%) +12.8%

Ref: 226 (27.2%) New

Lab: 66 (7.9%) -18.3%

LDm HOLD

Whitworth, Rossendale Borough Council

Ref: 733 (47.5%) New

Con: 449 (29.1%) -0.7%

Lab: 251 (16.3%) -4.8%

Grn: 110 (7.1%) -4.0%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Catsfield & Crowhurst, Rother District Council

LDm: 267 (36.6%) -11.9%

Ref: 200 (27.4%) New

Con: 162 (22.2%) -10.9%

Lab: 101 (13.8%) -4.7%

LDm HOLD

Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Sheffield City Council

Ref: 1,789 (32.9%) New

LDm: 1,595 (29.3%) +12.1%

Lab: 1,324 (24.4%) -25.2%

Con: 332 (6.1%) -21.6%

Grn: 294 (5.4%) -7.1%

Yrk: 58 (1.1%) New

TUS: 43 (0.8%) -1.2%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Great Wyrley Landywood, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 358 (48.7%) +9.1%

Ref: 292 (39.7%) New

Lab: 55 (7.5%) -30.3%

LDm: 30 (4.1%) New

Con HOLD

Bedwell, Stevenage Borough Council

Lab: 506 (43.2%) -2.5%

Ref: 404 (34.5%) New

Con: 105 (9.0%) -9.9%

Grn: 79 (6.7%) -7.8%

LDm: 78 (6.7%) -8.6%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

SNP = Scottish National Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

Yrk = Yorkshire

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 19.06.25

Six council by-elections were held on Thursday, with action from the northern reaches of Britain to the very south.  Seven seats were up for grabs, with a double header in the Highlands.  Although Labour's vote share was down in all of the seats it contested, the figures were not as dramatic as they have been for the previous six months.  Only in Sefton was their vote share reduced by double figures, with a large swing to both the Greens and Reform.

Reform UK continue to impress, including a gain in Yorkshire.

Buckingham, Adur District Council

Lab: 609 (43.7%) -7.2%

Ref: 311 (22.3%) New

Con: 301 (21.6%) -10.1%

LDm: 153 (10.9%) -1.4%

BrFt: 22 (1.6%) New

Lab HOLD

Cromarty Firth, Highland Council

(two seats, first preference votes)

LDm: 481 (20.3%) -7.6%

SNP: 403 (17.0%) -2.2%

Ind: 326 (13.7%) New

Ind: 323 (13.6%) New

Ind: 285 (12.0%) New

Ind: 182 (6.8%) New

Ind: 97 (4.1%) New

Grn: 89 (3.7%) +0.9%

Lab: 77 (3.2%) -0.9%

Ref: 57 (3.2%) New

Con: 52 (2.4%) -4.3%

LDm HOLD x 1 (elected stage 11)

Ind HOLD x 1 (elected stage 11)

Eilean á Chèo, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 823 (23.5%) New

LDm: 741 (21.5%) +18.0%

Ind: 655 (18.7%) New

SNP: 527 (15.0%) -7.5%

Ind: 276 (7.3%) New

Grn: 239 (6.8%) New

Ref: 157 (4.5%) New

Con: 86 (2.5%) -8.3%

Ind GAIN from Ind

Eastfield, North Yorkshire Council

Ref: 538 (62.7%) New

Lab: 121 (14.1%) -1.6%

SJP: 118 (13.8%) New

Con: 40 (4.7%) -1.8%

LDm: 24 (2.8%) -23.3%

Grn: 17 (2.0%) +0.2%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Blundellsands, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,290 (43.8%) -22.2%

Grn: 420 (15.5%) New

Ref: 386 (14.2%) New

LDm: 370 (13.6%) +2.3%

Con: 287 (10.6%) -12.1%

TUS: 36 (1.3%) New

Ind: 28 (1.0%) -7.2%

Lab HOLD

Ashford Town, Spelthorne Borough Council

LDm: 539 (27.4%) New

Ref: 459 (23.4%) New

Con: 374 (19.0%) -18.5%

Ind: 359 (18.3%) -9.7%

Lab: 234 (11.9%) -2.2%

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Ref =  Reform UK

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

BrFt = Britain First

SNP = Scottish National Party

SJP = Social Justice Party

Grn = Green

TUS = Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

BY-ELECTIONS 05.06.25

It was a busy Thursday this week, with a major by-election north of the border, plus eight council by-elections south of the border.

In Hamilton there was an MSP vacancy following the death of the SNP incumbent.  Usually such elections are a walkover for the defending party, but the declining popularity of the SNP saw the party lose to Labour and narrowly avoid a third place finish.  The SNP had been defending a 4,582 majority.  

Once again, Reform UK came from nowhere to push the main parties in a tight three-way contest.  Reform also enjoyed a significant swing from the SNP, in line with recent polling that suggested even some pro-independence voters were considering a vote for Reform.  We live in interesting times.

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, Scottish Parliament

(first past the post)

Lab: 8,559 (31.5%) -2.0%

SNP: 7,957 (29.4%) -16.8%

Ref: 7,088 (26.2%) New

Con: 1,621 (6.0%) -11.5%

Grn: 695 (2.6%) New

LDm: 533 (2.0%) -0.8%

SSP: 278 (1.0%) New

SFP: 219 (0.8%) New

Ind: 109 (0.4%) New

UKIP: 50 (0.2%) New

Lab GAIN from SNP

While Labour will be cock-a-hoop with the Holyrood result, the story further south was dismal.  They lost all three seats they were defending to Reform.  The Labour vote share was down in every single ward, ranging from a marginal 0.2 per cent to a whopping 50.5 per cent.

Reform also gained a seat from the Conservatives, while it was also a good night for the Lib Dems who held two and gained two, both from the Tories.

Somercotes, Amber Valley Borough Council

Ref: 396 (45.3%) New

Lab: 346 (39.6%) -27.0%

Con: 53 (6.1%) -15.1%

LDm: 48 (5.5%) -1.1%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) -3.3%

Ind: 11 (1.3%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Fairstead, Borough Council of King's Lynn and West Norfolk

Ref: 289 (39.1%) New

LDm: 275 (37.2%) New

Lab: 118 (16.0%) -29.7%

Grn: 36 (4.9%) -16.9%

Ind: 21 (2.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

North Lynn, Borough Council of King's Lynn and West Norfolk

Ref: 278 (49.6%) New

LDm: 123 (22.0%) New

Lab: 107 (19.1%) -50.5%

Grn: 52 (9.3%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Frinton, Tendring District Council

Ref: 1,222 (57.2%) New

Con: 577 (27.0%) -15.0%

Lab: 168 (7.9%) -7.0%

Grn: 93 (4.3%) -8.0%

LDm: 78 (3.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

Burgess Hill North, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 1,088 (40.9%) n/c

Ref: 707 (26.6%) New

Con: 618 (23.3%) -14.9%

Grn: 153 (5.8%) -5.4%

Lab: 92 (4.7%) -5.0%

LDm HOLD

Hassocks & Burgess Hill South, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 1,694 (55.3%) -6.6%

Ref: 762 (24.9%) New

Con: 310 (10.1%) -15.9%

Grn: 175 (5.7%) New

Lab: 123 (4.0%) -8.1%

LDm HOLD

St Leonard's Forest, West Sussex County Council

LDm: 644 (32.5%) +2.2%

Ref: 584 (29.5%) New

Con: 401 (20.2%) -34.3%

Grn: 259 (13.1%) New

Lab: 94 (4.7%) -10.5%

LDm GAIN from Con

Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, Wokingham Borough Council

LDm: 1,028 (31.2%) +3.2%

Lab: 793 (24.1%) -0.2%

Con: 788 (23.9%) -4.2%

Ref: 486 (14.8%) New

Grn: 189 (5.5%) -6.2%

TUS: 17 (0.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

SNP = Scottish National Party

Lab = Labour

Ref = Reform UK

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SSP = Scottish Socialist Party

SFP = Scottish Family Party

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 29.05.25

Four seats were up for grabs this week - two in Essex, one in Sussex and one in south Wales.  Reform scored a sensational gain from Labour in the latter, with a huge swing from a standing start.  Reform were newcomers in all four contests, gaining an independent seat in Essex and finishing second place in the other two seats.

Labour stood in three seats, including a humiliating last place finish in East Sussex where they garnered just 23 votes.

Lliedi, Carmarthenshire County Council

Ref: 568 (42.6%) New

Lab: 312 (23.4%) -34.9%

Ind: 116 (8.7%) New

Pld: 107 (8.0%) New

Con: 93 (7.0%) -8.7%

Ind: 86 (6.5%) New

LDm: 41 (3.1%) New

Gwd: 9 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Canvey Island Winter Gardens, Castle Point Borough Council

Ref: 712 (53.1%) New

Con: 232 (17.3%) +1.3%

Ind: 200 (14.9%) -22.7%

Lab: 131 (9.8%) -2.8%

Grn: 67 (5.0%) -6.1%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Newhaven North, Lewes District Council

LDm: 697 (51.7%) +4.1%

Ref: 389 (28.9%) New

Grn: 122 (9.1%) +1.8%

Con: 59 (4.4%) -14.2%

Ind: 57 (4.2%) -22.2%

Lab: 23 (1.7%) New

LDm HOLD

Maldon West, Maldon District Council

LDm: 573 (41.5%) +6.8%

Ref: 488 (35.3%) New

Con: 204 (14.8%) -2.6%

Ind: 83 (6.0%) -28.5%

Grn: 33 (2.4%) New

LDm GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Pld = Plaid Cymru

Con = Conservative

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Gwd = Gwlad

Grn = Green

Ind = Independent

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 22.05.25

It was very much a southern affair this week and all three seats were successfully defended by the Lib Dems.  The top four finish in each seat was identical - Lib Dem, Tory, Reform then Labour.  Labour's decline in vote share was not as dramatic this week, but they were starting from a low bar in these wards.  Reform continue to eat into the Lab-Con vote, entering each by-election as newcomers.

Eastleigh Borough Council, Hedge End South

LDm: 1,266 (44.4%) -8.7%

Con: 735 (25.8%) -3.8%

Ref: 728 (25.5%) New

Lab: 122 (4.3%) -6.6%

LDm HOLD

Sutton London Borough Council, Carshalton South & Clockhouse

LDm: 1,674 (52.2%) +12.1%

Con: 767 (23.9%) -18.2%

Ref: 573 (17.9%) New

Lab: 89 (2.8%) -5.4%

Grn: 79 (2.5%) -7.1

CPA: 23 (0.7%) New

LDm HOLD

West Sussex County Council, Horsham Riverside

LDm: 1,193 (45.7%) -0.2%

Con: 569 (21.8%) -12.8%

Ref: 547 (21.0%) New

Lab: 181 (6.9%) -6.7%

Grn: 118 (4.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.04.25

The four by-elections held on Thursday were the last to be held before next week's watered down local elections in England.  Barely ten per cent of England's council seats will be up for grabs next Thursday, with nine councils having their scheduled elections postponed.  However, there will be six regional mayors elected, plus the hotly anticipated Westminster by-election for Runcorn and Helsby.

Three of the four vacancies on Thursday were held by incumbents, while Reform won a seat at the first time of asking in West Sussex.

Marine, Arun District Council

Ref: 306 (26.0%) New

LDm: 296 (25.2%) -2.8%

Lab: 236 (20.1%) -1.1%

Con: 192 (16.3%) -1.3%

Grn: 115 (9.8%) New

Ind: 31 (2.6%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Glenrothes Central & Thornton, Fife Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 1,439 (47.6%) -1.1%

Lab: 649 (21.5%) -6.4%

Ref: 541 (17.9%) New

LDm: 207 (6.9%) +2.9%

Con: 185 (6.1%) -5.9%

SNP HOLD (elected at stage 4)

St John's, Suffolk County Council

Lab: 600 (28.0%) -19.7%

Grn: 458 (21.4%) +13.6%

Ref: 442 (20.6%) New

LDm: 323 (15.1%) +9.8%

Con: 318 (14.9%) -24.4%

Lab HOLD

Thatcham North East, West Berkshire Council

LDm: 690 (41.1%) -14.8%

Con: 428 (25.5%) +0.1%

Ref: 367 (21.9%) New

Grn: 127 (7.6%) -11.0%

Lab: 65 (3.9%) New

LDm HOLD

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 17.04.25

Just two seats were available on Thursday and it was two gains for the Lib Dems.  The introduction of a Reform candidate in Horsham appeared to hit the Tories (probably cost Labour a few votes, also), helping the Lib Dems to victory there.  In Torridge the Lib Dems came from nowhere to take a previously independent seat.

Colgate & Rusper, Horsham

LDm: 453 (30.3%) -0.3%

Con: 406 (27.2%) -15.8%

Grn: 375 (25.1%) +12.6%

Ref: 206 (13.8%) New

Lab: 53 (3.5%) -10.4%

LDm GAIN from Con

Appledore, Torridge District Council

LDm: 304 (40.8%) New

Con: 235 (31.5%) New

Ind: 116 (15.5%) New

Grn: 91 (12.2%) -32.3%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Abbreviations

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Con= Conservative

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

Lab = Labour

Ind = Independent

CAPLIN'S POWERFUL FOLLOWERS

Just a few of the prominent faces who follow Caplin's sordid X account

*** UPDATE *** Caplin deleted his X account on Thursday afternoon

Earlier this week we exposed the sickening debauchery of Ivor Caplin's X feed.  It was a small microcosm of something that would take Caplin hours, if not days, to delete now that he has been released from custody.  While it's not yet clear if he has been charged or released on bail, we know that he began using his X account again on Wednesday, because he retweeted several (non-pornographic) posts.  If no charges are brought against Caplin it would be an outrage, as the self-styled 'paedophile hunters' who snared him will have supplied police with all the proof they need.  Furthermore, police officers are known to have raided Caplin's Hove flat while he was in custody and according to neighbours the search 'took several hours'.

However, we also know that Caplin has powerful friends.  As soon as news broke of his arrest, X users began to make notes of who followed his account and the names were huge...

The official Labour party X account was following Caplin's account at the time of his arrest, although it was quickly unfollowed after the news broke.  Many other high profile Labour figures also followed Caplin on X, some of whom have since unfollowed him - including the likes of Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting - but not before eagle-eyed X users screenshot their names.

At the time of his arrest, serving Labour MPs who followed Caplin's X account included Luke Akehurst (North Durham), Phil Brickell (Bolton West), Liam Byrne (Birmingham Hodge Hill), Jim Dickson (Dartford), Clive Efford (Eltham & Chislehurst), Fabian Hamilton (Leeds East), Sharon Hodgson (Washington & Gateshead South), Dan Jarvis (Barnsley North), Gerald Jones (Merthyr & Aberdare), Alison McGovern (Birkenhead), Anna McMorrin (Cardiff North), Fred Thomas (Plymouth Moor View), Gareth Thomas (Harrow West), Matt Turmaine (Watford), Paul Waugh (Rochdale) and Catherine West (Hornsey & Friern Barnet).

Serving Labour ministers who follow or followed his account include Janet Daby (Lewisham East), Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South & Penarth), Nia Griffith (Llanelli), Andrew Gwynne (Gorton & Denton), Peter Kyle (Hove & Portslade), Luke Pollard (Plymouth Sutton & Devonport), Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge & Hyde) and last, but not least - Yvette Cooper, Dave Lammy, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting.

A fairly recent photo of Caplin with his local MP and current frontbencher Peter Kyle

At the time of writing, Caplin's account is also followed by Lord (Michael) Cashman, Baroness (Janet) Royall, Baroness (Jacqui) Smith, former MPs Wayne David and Julie Elliot, former PM Gordon Brown and the despicable Alastair Campbell.  However, the name of most interest is that of the deceased former MP Jack Dromey, who - along with Patricia Hewitt and his wife Harriet Harman - were involved in the PIE scandal of the 1970s.  P.I.E stands for the Paedophile Information Exchange, which campaigned for the abolition of the age of consent and was linked to a libertarian group of which the trio were prominent members.

For those who suspect that the total lack of media coverage over the weekend from the major news channels is perhaps indicative of some kind of conspiracy, it will surely be of interest to note that many journalists follow Caplin too - including the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, the senior editor of Newsnight, the i newspaper's Benjamin Butterworth, Dan Hodges of The Daily Mail and many more.  If they were able and/or willing to report freely, why did none of them expose the disgusting content of Caplin's X feed?

Finally, to cap it all off, Caplin's account is followed by the official X account of the Crown Prosecution Service.  It will be of no great surprise to anyone if no charges are brought...

EX-LABOUR MINISTER ARRESTED

A former minister in Tony Blair's government has been arrested after a sting operation by self-styled 'paedophile hunters'.  Ivor Caplin was the MP for Hove between 1997 and 2005.

Caplin was collared by the activists after he allegedly arranged to meet a 15-year-old boy for sex.  The clip below shows an exchange between the former MP and his captors just moments before Sussex Police officers arrived and apprehended him themselves.

The sting took place in Caplin's home town of Brighton.  The former Veterans' Minister was suspended from Labour in June last year over 'serious allegations'.  Those allegations were not made public.  Caplin is openly gay.

His last prominent role in relation to Labour was as chair of the Labour affiliate group the Jewish Labour Movement.  He spent a year in that role before being voted out in 2019.

Sussex Police have released the following statement:

"We are aware of footage circulating on social media showing a man in Brighton being detained on suspicion of engaging in online sexual communications with a child.  Officers can confirm that a local 66-year-old man was arrested on Saturday January 11 and currently remains in custody.  This is an ongoing and active investigation."

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.11.24

15 council seats were available in this week's round of by-elections.  Labour were defending just five of these, three of which were in Glasgow.  With the SNP in freefall in Scotland's second city, Labour would not have many problems holding here and they did so, albeit with dips in their vote across two of the wards.  They also held in Sefton (Merseyside), again not surprising, but their vote share plummeted by more than 30 points with a huge swing to the second placed Greens.

Of course there couldn't be a week in Starmer's Britain where Labour didn't lose something and they did.  In Gosport (Hampshire) they lost a seat, with a swing to both Reform and the victorious Conservatives.

Labour also gained a rare seat, taking advantage of a vacant independent seat in Dacorum (Hertfordshire).  Reform also made gains at the expense of residents' groups in Kent, gaining two seats, one of which they had not previously contested.

The Tories improved on last week's performance, gaining three seats from the Lib Dems.

Bennetts End, Dacorum Borough Council

Lab: 318 (37.1%) +6.4%

Con: 313 (36.5%) +14.5%

Grn: 102 (11.9%) +1.7%

Ref: 92 (10.7%) New

LDm: 32 (3.7%) -3.6%

Lab GAIN from Ind

Hemel Hempstead Town, Dacorum Borough Council

Con: 347 (43.7%) +17.3%

LDm: 174 (21.9%) -24.8%

Lab: 147 (18.5%) -8.4%

Ref: 79 (9.9%) New

Grn: 45 (5.9%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Greenhithe & Knockhall, Dartford Borough Council

Ref: 284 (31.2%) New

Ind: 251 (27.6% ) -17.2%

Grn: 150 (16.5%) New

Lab: 113 (12.4%) -7.0%

Con: 112 (12.3%) -23.5%

Ref GAIN from Ind

Drumchapel & Anniesland, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 1,084 (34.3%) -3.8%

SNP: 830 (26.3%) -11.6%

Ref: 405 (12.8%) New

Ind: 297 (9.4%) +4.2%

Grn: 263 (8.3%) +2.3%

Con: 184 (5.8%) -3.7%

LDm: 93 (2.9%) +1.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Maryhill, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 999 (35.9%) +1.9%

SNP: 814 (29.2%) -12.9%

Ref: 353 (12.7%) New

Grn: 338 (12.1%) -0.2%

Alb: 118 (4.2%) New

Con: 89 (3.2%) -5.0%

LDm: 75 (2.7%) +0.3%

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

North East, Glasgow City Council

(First preference votes)

Lab: 630 (34.3%) -9.7%

SNP: 591 (32.2%) -10.4%

Ref: 336 (18.3%) New

Con: 99 (5.4%) -3.3%

Grn: 77 (4.2%) +1.2%

TUS: 68 (3.7%) +2.5%

LDm: 36 (2.0%) New

Lab HOLD (elected stage 7)

Harbourside & Town, Gosport Borough Council

Con: 445 (48.5%) +10.6%

Lab: 255 (27.8%) -12.8%

LDm: 108 (11.8%) +3.4%

Ref: 85 (9.3%) New

Ind: 13 (1.4%) New

Hrt: 11 (1.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Highland Council

(First preference votes)

LDm: 1,428 (58.9%) +21.4%

SNP: 619 (25.5%) -8.0%

Grn: 146 (6.0%) -2.6%

Lab: 109 (4.5%) New

Con: 107 (4.4%) -5.7%

SLP: 15 (0.6%) New

LDm HOLD (elected stage 1)

Denne, Horsham District Council

Con: 712 (38.6%) +9.3%

LDm: 672 (36.4%) -13.2%

Grn: 255 (13.8%) +5.0%

Lab: 205 (11.1%) -1.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

Swanscombe & Greenhithe, Kent County Council

Ref: 695 (29.1%) +27.5%

Lab: 588 (24.6%) -7.5%

Ind: 395 (16.5%) -23.9%

Con: 374 (15.6%) -10.3%

Grn: 296 (12.4%) New

LDm: 44 (1.8%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Litherland, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 495 (43.7%) -30.3%

Grn: 385 (34.0%) +27.1%

Ref: 141 (12.4%) New

Con: 48 (4.2%) -0.6%

WPB: 40 (3.5%) New

TUS: 25 (2.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Oakham North East, Rutland County Council

LDm: 244 (40.9%) -30.7%

Con: 237 (39.7%) +11.3%

Ref: 93 (15.6%) New

Lab: 23 (3.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Blackmoor Vale, Somerset County Council

Con: 1,120 (57.4%) +13.1%

LDm: 724 (36.6%) -19.1%

Grn: 86 (4.4%) New

Lab: 32 (1.6%) New

Con GAIN from LDm

Rowbarton & Staplegrove, Somerset County Council

LDm: 817 (58.3%) +1.7%

Con: 396 (28.3%) -2.4%

Grn: 102 (7.3%) New

Lab: 96 (6.1%) -6.6%

LDm HOLD

Murston, Swale Borough Council

Ind: 269 (34.5%) -6.1%

Lab: 229 (29.4%) +2.2%

Ref: 139 (17.8%) New

Con: 116 (14.9%) +0.4%

LDm: 26 (3.3%) -6.2%

Ind HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

LDm = Liberal Democrat

SNP = Scottish National Party

Alb = Alba

TUS = Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

Hrt = Heritage

SLP = Scottish Libertarian Party

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.10.24

A total of 13 seats were available in this week's round of by-elections, with Labour defending six of them.  It was yet another grim set of results for them, with three of those seats lost to the Conservatives.  Labour finished last in two contests, while the vote share was also down in all 11 of the seats it contested - including some huge margins.  It was down 31.4 per cent in Calderdale, 26.3 per cent in South Ribble and 30.2 per cent in Surrey Heath.

Muscliff & Strouden Park - Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council

Con: 1,008 (42.3%) +16.4%

Lab: 424 (17.8%) -3.0%

Ind: 406 (17.0%) New

Ind: 188 (7.9%) New

LDm: 174 (7.3%) +1.9%

Ind: 100 (4.2%) New

Grn: 84 (3.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Calder - Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,009 (36.3%) -31.4%

Grn: 784 (28.2%) +13.8%

LDm: 410 (14.6%) +9.6%

Ind: 316 (11.4%) New

Con: 251 (9.0%) -3.9%

SDP: 12 (0.4%) New

Lab HOLD

Northgate & West Green - Crawley Borough Council

Lab: 704 (38.5%) -15.0%

Con: 492 (26.9%) -2.0%

Ref: 292 (16.0%) New

Grn: 174 (9.5%) -3.0%

WPB: 133 (7.3%) New

TUS: 35 (1.9%) -3.2%

Lab HOLD

Prestatyn North - Denbighshire County Council

Con: 295 (25.9%) +0.1%

Ind: 221 (19.4%) New

Ref: 218 (19.2%) New

Lab: 212 (18.6%) -18.7%

Plaid: 169 (14.9%) -4.4%

LDm: 33 (2.0%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Croft - East Lindsey District Council

Con: 198 (46.5%)

Ind: 79 (18.5%)

LDm: 75 (17.6%)

Ind: 48 (11.3%)

Grn: 21 (4.9%)

Lab: 5 (1.2%)

Con HOLD (previously elected unopposed)

Whickham North - Gateshead Borough Council

LDm: 902 (64.6%) +6.7%

Lab: 285 (20.4%) -6.3%

Con: 137 (9.8%) +0.9%

Grn: 72 (5.2%) -1.3%

LDm HOLD

Talybolion - Isle of Anglesey County Council

Ind: 678 (51.6%) +24.6%

Plaid: 518 (39.4%) -9.6%

Con: 72 (5.5%) -14.5%

Grn: 46 (3.5%) +0.5%

Ind GAIN from Plaid

Hemlington - Middlesbrough Borough Council

Lab: 422 (53.1%) -10.2%

Con: 251 (31.6%) +16.0%

Ind: 55 (6.9%) New

WPB: 47 (5.9%) New

LDm: 20 (2.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Town - Monmouthshire County Council

Con: 350 (58.9%) +29.9%

Lab: 184 (31.0%) -15.3%

LDm: 41 (6.9%) -1.6%

Grn: 19 (3.2%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Barton & Becton - New Forest District Council

Con: 671 (57.1%) -0.9%

LDm: 505 (42.9%) +18.9%

Con HOLD

Histon & Impington - South Cambridgeshire District Council

LDm: 942 (38.7%) -2.3%

Ind: 617 (25.3%) +4.1%

Grn: 420 (17.3%) +5.8%

Con: 283 (11.6%) -0.1%

Lab: 172 (7.1%) -7.4%

LDm HOLD

Middleforth - South Ribble Borough Council

Con: 517 (46.3%) +21.7%

Lab: 362 (32.4%) -26.3%

LDm: 173 (15.5%) -0.9%

Grn: 64 (5.7%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Old Dean - Surrey Heath Borough Council

LDm: 394 (44.7%) New

Con: 278 (31.6%) -27.3%

Ref: 109 (12.4%) New

Lab: 96 (10.9%) -30.2%

Ind: 4 (0.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Abbreviations

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Grn = Green

SDP = Social Democratic Party

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

TUS = Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition

Plaid = Plaid Cymru

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 10.10.24

There were a whopping 20 council seats up for grabs on Thursday, over half of which Labour were defending.  The Labour vote was down in all but two of the seats they contested.  In four seats the Labour vote was down by over 20 per cent and they lost four of the eleven seats they were defending.  The Tories took two of those seats, while the Greens and Lib Dems took one each.

The Conservatives also gained an additional three seats, two of which from independents and one from the Lib Dems.

St Michael's, Coventry City Council

Lab: 899 (49.1%) -20.7%

TUS: 327 (17.9%) +4.2%

WPB: 212 (11.6%) New

Con: 145 (7.9%) -2.0%

Grn: 86 (5.2%) -1.4%

Ind: 94 (5.1%) -0.1%

LDm: 57 (3.1%) -1.0%

Lab HOLD

Hanger Hill, Ealing London Borough Council

LDm: 1,655 (52.3%) +19.3%

Con: 814 (25.7%) -5.1%

Lab: 315 (10.0%) -13.3%

Grn: 245 (7.7%) -5.1%

Ref: 98 (3.1%) New

WPB: 35 (1.1%) New

LDm HOLD

Northolt Mandeville, Ealing London Borough Council

Lab: 1,126 (44.7%) -10.3%

Con:730  (29.0%) +2.5%

Ref: 271 (10.8%) New

Grn: 199 (7.9%) -3.9%

LDm: 114 (4.5%) -2.2%

WPB: 90 (3.2%) New

Lab HOLD

South Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Lab: 1,009 (48.5%) -1.2%

Con: 303 (14.6%) -0.9%

Grn: 287 (13.8%) -6.1%

LDm: 208 (10.0%) -1.8%

Ref: 159 (7.6%) New

Ind: 65 (3.1%) New

WPB: 32 (1.5%) New

TUS: 18 (0.9%) -0.3%

Lab HOLD

Hersham Village, Elmbridge Borough Council

Con: 1,029 (55.4%) +11.0%

LDm: 736 (39.6%) -5.5%

Lab: 94 (5.1%) -5.5%

Con GAIN from LDm

Weybridge St George's Hill, Elmbridge Borough Council

Con: 608 (46.0%) -5.5%

Ind: 598 (45.2%) +9.3%

Grn: 116 (8.8%) New

Con HOLD

Warton, Fylde Borough Council

Con: 351 (51.2%) +20.2%

Ind: 223 (32.5%) New

Lab: 78 (11.4%) -16.7%

Grn: 34 (5.0%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Little Parndon & Town Centre, Harlow District Council

Lab: 511 (50.2%) -9.2%

Con: 227 (22.3%) -8.0%

Ref: 201 (19.7%) New

Grn: 56 (5.5%) -4.9%

UKIP: 23 (2.3%) New

Lab HOLD

Farnley & Wortley, Leeds City Council

Grn: 1,450 (38.7%) +4.7%

Lab: 965 (25.8%) -22.2%

Ref: 912 (24.4%) New

Con: 202 (5.4%) -12.5%

LDm: 118 (3.2%) New

Ind: 70 (1.9%) New

SDP: 26 (0.7%) -0.9%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Wivelsfield, Lewes District Council

Grn: 315 (42.3%) -10.3%

LDm: 216 (29.0%) +18.2%

Con: 213 (28.6%) -7.9%

Grn HOLD

Clay Cross North, North East Derbyshire District Council

Con: 624 (51.0%) +10.1%

Lab: 356 (29.1%) -21.2%

LDm: 175 (14.3%) +5.5%

Grn: 69 (5.6%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Fortissat, North Lanarkshire Council

(first preference votes)

Lab: 807 (36.6%) +0.1%

Ind: 529 (24.0%) New

SNP: 447 (20.3%) -10.6%

BUP: 241 (10.9%) -7.9%

Con: 124 (5.6%) -5.6%

LDm: 57 (2.6%) New

Lab HOLD (stage TBC)

Mossend & Holytown, North Lanarkshire Council

(first preferences votes)

Lab: 616 (36.5%) -2.9%

SNP: 586 (34.8%) -7.8%

Ref: 263 (15.6%) New

Con: 127 (7.5%) -5.3%

LDm: 83 (4.9%) New

UKIP: 11 (0.7%) New

Lab HOLD (elected at stage 5)

Burton & Broughton, North Northamptonshire Council

Con: 939 (46.4)% -2.8%

Grn: 489 (24.2%) -7.9%

LDm: 337 (16.6%) -12.7%

Lab: 260 (12.8%) -16.5%

Con HOLD

The Havens, Pembrokeshire County Council

Con: 365 (49.1%) +7.8%

Ind: 201 (27.0%) New

LDm: 145 (18.1%) New

Ind: 43 (5.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Addlestone South, Runnymede Borough Council

Con: 520 (55.9%) +11.6%

Lab: 262 (28.2%) +3.5%

LDm: 83 (9.1%) New

Grn: 43 (6.8%) -6.0%

Con HOLD

Shirley, Southampton City Council

LDm: 1,249 (39.2%) +25.6%

Con: 770 (24.2%) -4.4%

Lab: 764 (24.0%) -19.5%

Grn: 241 (7.6%) -4.7%

Ind: 117 (3.7%) New

TUS: 44 (1.4%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

Bamber Bridge West, South Ribble Borough Council

Lab: 253 (44.8%) -21.6%

Con: 186 (32.9%) -0.7%

LDm: 126 (22.3%) New

Lab HOLD

Hoxne & Eye, Suffolk County Council

Con: 895 (45.3%) +0.3%

Grn: 891 (45.1%) New

LDm: 102 (5.2%) -14.0%

Lab: 89 (4.5%) -10.4%

Con HOLD

Heene, Worthing Borough Council

Con: 742 (42.1%) +6.6%

Lab: 704 (39.9%) -13.6%

Grn: 186 (10.5%) -0.5%

LDm: 132 (7.5%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour

TUS = Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Con = Conservative

Grn = Green

LDm = Liberal Democrat

Ref = Reform UK

UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party

SDP = Social Democratic Party

SNP = Scottish National Party

BUP = British Unionist Party

Ind = Independents and local groups

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 19.09.24

There were eight seats up for grabs on Thursday, plus one contest held on Monday.  With the exception of Huntingdonshire, where Labour were newcomers, the Labour vote share was down in all the other seats.  They lost four seats in total, three to the Conservatives and one to the Lib Dems.  They held three others, despite huge swings to the Lib Dems in Cornwall, Reform in Hartlepool and a combination of the Greens and Workers Party in Westminster.

The Tories were defending three seats, two of which were successfully held in Hartlepool, while they lost to an independent in Huntingdonshire.

Sidemoor, Bromsgrove District Council

LDem: 276 (52.6%) +24.9%

Con: 141 (26.9%) +3.1%

Lab: 87 (16.6%) -29.2%

Grn: 21 (4.0%) New

LDem GAIN from Lab

Falmouth Penwerris, Cornwall County Council

Lab: 337 (44.7%) -19.8%

LDem: 228 (30.2%) +25.5%

Grn: 189 (25.1%) +16.6%

Lab HOLD

Burn Valley, Hartlepool Borough Council

Lab: 475 (47.5%) -21.5%

Ref: 399 (39.9%) +23.9%

LDem: 89 (8.9%) New

Grn: 36 (3.6%) New

Lab HOLD

St Neots Eatons, Huntingdonshire District Council

Ind: 531 (32.7%) New

LDem: 426 (26.2%) +2.3%

Con: 420 (25.9%) -5.4%

Ind: 125 (7.7%) New

Lab: 77 (4.7%) New

Grn: 45 (2.8%) -8.7%

Ind GAIN from Con

Harrow Road, Westminster City Council

Lab: 512 (44.2%) -27.5%

Grn: 244 (21.1%) New

WPB: 166 (14.3%) New

Con: 162 (14.0%) -3.9%

LDem: 63 (5.4%) -4.9%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Lab HOLD

West End, Westminster City Council

Con: 627 (48.8%) +8.5%

Lab: 489 (38.1%) -10.5%

Grn: 94 (7.3%) New

LDem: 74 (5.8%) -5.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Fairfield, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council (two seats)

Con (2): 1,291 & 1,181 (54.2%) +12.0%

Lab (2): 528 & 496 (22.2%) -4.4%

Ref (2): 344 & 304 (14.5%) +6.4%

Ind: 110 (4.6%) New

Grn: 62 (2.6%) New

LDem (2): 45 & 43 (1.9%) New

Con HOLD (two seats)

Marine, Worthing Borough Council

Con: 865 (40.7%) +7.9%

Lab: 781 (36.8%) -16.0%

Ref: 228 (10.7%) New

Grn: 138 (6.5%) -2.7%

LDem: 113 (5.3%) +0.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Bestwood St Albans, Gedling Borough Council (held on Monday)

Con: 358 (47.8%) +16.3%

Lab: 300 (40.1%) -12.3%

LDem: 91 (12.1%) +6.3%

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

LDem = Liberal Democrat

Con = Conservative

Lab = Labour

Grn = Green

Ref = Reform UK

WPB = Workers Party of Britain

Ind = Independents

REFORM SURPRISE FOR BASTANI

The dullest man on the left was in the Tory stronghold of Chichester this week for his communist media outlet Novara Media.  Aaron Bastani was voxpopping residents in the Sussex town and asking them various questions about the looming election.  After speaking to various older residents who voiced a variety of opinions, Bastani appears to be dumbfounded when he speaks to some younger people who all give Reform UK the thumbs up.

Two lads who appear to be unknown to each other both express support for Reform.  One of them vents about getting 'rid of Rishi Sunak', while the other lad - who is mixed race - refers to the PM as 'a mug'.  Bastani is particularly intrigued by the latter, given his racial background (the left, as ever, fascinated by race).  He says that Reform would give 'actual English citizens a voice in what happens in this country'.  Bastani then speaks to two young girls, one of which says 'everyone around [Chichester] is very into it [Reform UK]'.  She puts the apparent fervour down to TikTok videos, which have featured teens from other areas talking up Reform.

Watch the clip below.

In the full 22 minute video on YouTube, Bastani uncovers support for the Lib Dems, Tories and Reform UK - not so much for Labour in this seat.  A Scottish couple who said they had always voted Conservative, said they were both thinking about voting for Reform.  Another lifelong Tory said he was so fed up that he was not going to bother voting at all.  An old lefty expressed delusion with our entire system of democracy and said he wasn't voting either.

During the remainder of the campaign we'll be lending our predictions for various seats and where better to begin than Chichester itself...

The constituency is so old that it predates the creation of both Great Britain and the United Kingdom by several hundred years, having first been established in 1295.  The Conservatives have held the seat for the entire 20th and 21st centuries, aside from 1923 when it was briefly gained by the Liberals, but held for just ten months.  Prior to that the seat had been represented by a Conservative MP since 1837.

It's an impressive record and Gillian Keegan goes into this election defending a 21,490 majority.  The Tory majority has decreased over the last two elections, from a peak in 2015 of 24,413.  We expect it to crumble at this forthcoming election and the seat will change hands.  The Lib Dems, who pushed Labour into third in 2019, appear to be the main challengers.  Reform are starting from scratch, having not fielded a candidate here previously.

There are six candidates in Chichester this time around, as follows.

Jess Brown-Fuller (LDem)

Tom Collinge (Lab)

Teresa De Santis (Ref UK)

Andrew Emerson (Ind)

Gillian Keegan (Con)

Tim Young (Grn)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con