COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 09.07.26

14 vacant seats were up for grabs on Thursday, with a further two having been decided earlier this week on the somewhat unorthodox polling day of Tuesday.  The contests were once again fairly spread out across the country, with four in south Wales, three in north Wales, three in London and one each in Scotland, the north east, Midlands and East Anglia.

It was also a variety of defences and free-for-alls.  The Greens were defending all three London vacancies, on account of poor candidate vetting which ended up costing them two of the three.  The Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru were also defending three each, Labour two, Reform one and there were also two free-for-alls triggered by outgoing independents.

It was a mixed week for Labour as lost a seat, held one and gained one.  Their vote share was down in nine of the seats the party contested, against an increase in three.  This is still an improvement on much of the Starmer era, during which they struggled to hold seats and saw vote shares routinely collapsing  by more than 20 percentage points. They finished bottom of the pile in two seats, while the Greens collected the wooden spoon in three.  The Greens appear to have slumped back down to where they were before their media-sponsored boom and are once again vying for fourth place in national polls with the Lib Dems.

Regent's Park, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 574 (32.4%) -0.4%

Grn: 482 (27.2%) -11.1%

Ind: 407 (22.9%) New

Con: 137 (7.7%) -1.5%

Ref: 123 (6.9%) -5.0%

LDm: 51 (2.9%) -3.5%

Lab GAIN from Grn

The first of three London by-elections triggered in humiliating fashion by the Greens.  In this seat they fielded an ineligible winning candidate on May 7, who was unable to take up his new council role as he was already employed by the council as a secondary school teacher.  This is the second by-election the party have caused in this way, having selected a primary school teacher who won in Hackney, also on May 7.  They narrowly held the resulting by-election last month.  While much attention in previous years has been given (quite rightly) to the poor vetting of Reform candidates, not so much attention has been drawn to the shoddy vetting of Zack's crazy gang.  The National Housing Party, who fought this ward in May, dropped out for the by-election.  Only three of the six candidates had Western European names and the winning candidate was Nanouche Umeadi for Labour.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Splott, Cardiff Council

Lab: 765 (40.3%) +6.3%

Grn: 678 (35.7%) +18.4%

Ref: 286 (15.1%) +2.1%

LDm: 114 (6.0%) -8.0%

Con: 54 (2.8%) n/c

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd on May 7, one of just nine Labour MSs elected across the whole of Wales.  He had been Cardiff council leader for nine years, but is still undoubtedly most famous for his comments about people flying the Cross of St George - who he described as 'simpletons', 'casual racists' and advised friends to throw Tipp-Ex on cars that displayed the flag.  Just typical of the university-educated bourgeois snobs that dominate the modern Labour party.  The previous election here was a by-election in December 2024, when Labour's majority was slashed by almost 1,200 votes.  Plaid Cymru and Propel did not stand candidates this time, and the absence of the former appears to have benefited Labour.  Labour increased their vote share, but the Greens surged into second place to keep Labour's majority in check.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Argoed & New Brighton, Flintshire County Council

LDm: 614 (39.8%) +3.8%

Ref: 490 (31.7%) New

Pld: 191 (12.4%) -2.3%

Con: 113 (7.3%) New

Lab: 113 (7.3%) -17.2%

Grn: 23 (1.5%) -8.8%

LDm HOLD

The death of the 76-year-old incumbent triggered this contest.  The Lib Dems won both seats here back in 2022, with Labour a fairly distant second.  Labour crashed to fifth on this occasion, with only the Greens preventing them from collecting the wooden spoon.  It was an impressive new entry by Reform who replaced Labour in the runner up position.  An independent candidate picked up 341 votes in 2022, but did not stand this time.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Connah's Quay Central, Flintshire County Council

Ref: 256 (48.1%) New

Lab: 101 (19.0%) -15.1%

Pld: 71 (13.3%) New

Ind: 59 (11.1%) New

Con: 21 (3.9%) New

Ind: 13 (2.1%) New

Grn: 11 (2.4%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

The resignation of the controversial incumbent led to this vacancy.  An ex-Labour councillor, he quit the party in 2019 after an internal row, but went on to be re-elected in 2022 as an independent.  In 2024 he was suspended by the council for four months after 'sending sexual messages to a vulnerable resident'.  He was later readmitted, but has now retired due to ill health.  Back in 2022 only Labour and independents stood here, but we had a much more crowded ballot paper this time, topped by Reform in an impressive gain at the first time of asking.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

High Fell, Gateshead Metropolitan Borough Council

Ref: 564 (40.1%) -4.9%

Lab: 559 (39.7%) +11.2%

LDm: 98 (7.0%) -2.2%

Con: 79 (5.6%) New

Grn: 71 (5.0%) -8.7%

TUS: 36 (2.6%) -1.0%

Ref HOLD

Reform swept to power in Gateshead on May 7, a council that Labour had controlled for the entirety of its 52 year existence.  In High Fell the party won all three seats, but just 11 days later the second placed candidate resigned unexpectedly - citing 'work commitments'.  The new Reform council pledged to mitigate the roughly £20,000 cost of the resulting by-election by having one of its cabinet members forgo their council-funded allowance.  Honourable, but a bit harsh if you're the member earmarked for that loss!  Reform took a bit of a hit regardless, but clung on by the slender margin of just five votes.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✔

Llanrug, Cyngor Gwynedd Council

Ind: 394 (57.4%) New

Pld: 262 (38.2%) -61.8%

Ref: 17 (2.5%) New

Con: 6 (0.9%) New

Grn: 4 (0.6%) New

LDm: 3 (0.4%) New

Ind GAIN from Pld

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  She was re-elected unopposed to this ward in 2022, which is situated in one of the most predominantly Welsh-speaking communities in the country.  Voters certainly had a choice this time around, but it was an independent who triumphed in a shock gain from the fake nationalists.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

Clapham Park, Lambeth London Borough Council

Grn: 842 (43.8%) +11.6%

Lab: 799 (41.5%) +5.7%

LDm: 108 (5.6%) -4.5%

Con: 85 (4.4%) -4.2%

Ref: 71 (3.7%) -2.9%

CPA: 12 (0.6%) New

Soc: 6 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Another London Green shitshow.  With all three seats up for grabs on May 7, the top two spots went to Labour candidates, while the third went to a Green candidate who resigned just 11 days later.  She cited 'ill health' that would not allow her to 'do the job justice'.  She clearly did not expect to win and it has cost local taxpayers tens of thousands to replace her.  The SDP contested this seat in May, but are absent this time, passing their wooden spoon to one of the newcomers.  The race to avoid last place was a straight fight between the right-wing Christian Peoples Alliance and the far left Socialist Party of Great Britain.  The Marxists won't be happy with the outcome, with the CPA garnering twice their vote - 12 in all!  The Greens increased their vote share, despite triggering a contest that should have been avoided.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth London Borough Council

LDm: 1,161 (41.7%) +26.4%

Grn: 972 (35.0%) -12.5%

Lab: 421 (15.1%) -7.8%

Con: 119 (4.3%) -3.1%

Ref: 71 (2.6%) -4.2%

CPA: 37 (1.3%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

Probably the most serious Green vetting disaster yet, with two candidates arrested during the local election campaign on suspicion of 'stirring up racial hatred'.  The party suspended one of its candidates in this ward, but it was too late to take her off the ballot paper and she ended up picking up the third council seat in a Green clean sweep.  This was despite Labour having desperately drawn attention to the anti-Semitic social media posts that led to her arrest.  She quickly vacated her seat following the election, creating another costly embarrassment for the Greens in London.  They chose not to select a Muslim candidate for the by-election, but it was a lost cause as the Lib Dems surged from third to first.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✘

Trebanos, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council

Pld: 223 (51.1%) -18.3%

Ref: 88 (20.2%) New

LDm: 77 (17.7%) New

Lab: 37 (8.5%) -22.1%

Con: 7 (1.6%) New

Grn: 4 (0.9%) New

Pld HOLD

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  She was re-elected to this ward in the 2022 local elections, in a straight head-to-head with Labour.  That election saw Labour lose control of the council for the first time ever, as it slipped into no overall control.  It is currently run by a minority coalition of Plaid and independents.  This by-election presented a routine hold for Plaid, despite a plummeting vote share.  Yet another wooden spoon for Zack's crazy gang - four votes!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Suffield Park, North Norfolk Districk Council

LDm: 485 (65.4%) +4.3%

Ref: 136 (18.3%) New

Con: 88 (11.9%) -14.1%

Grn: 20 (2.7%) -2.9%

Lab: 13 (1.8%) -5.6%

LDm HOLD

The Lib Dem incumbent recently moved to Poland, triggering this by-election.  The seaside resort of Cromer that hosted this contest has become fairly solid ground for the Lib Dems and it was a simple hold for them.  They held this seat in 2023 with more than double the vote of the second placed Conservatives, but it was Reform who finished runners-up on this occasion.  

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Pembroke Dock Market, Pembrokeshire County Council

Con: 143 (36.0%) New

Ind: 100 (25.2%) New

Pld: 79 (19.9%) New

Ref: 48 (12.1%) New

Ind: 11 (2.8%) New

LDm: 9 (2.3%) New

Ind: 7 (1.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

This free-for-all was triggered by the death of the longstanding 78-year-old incumbent.  He was re-elected unopposed in 2022, but it was a busy ballot to succeed him.  They like their independents in these parts, with the council having been governed by independents for the entirety of its 30 year existence.  However, this contest went to the Conservatives, despite the presence of no less than three independents.  One of the independents is reportedly affiliated to Restore Britain, but did not stand under that banner, which is probably just as well considering he has a criminal record and was previously disqualified from public office.  He received 11 votes.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Larkhall, South Lanarkshire Council

(first preference votes)

Ref: 1,150 (35.2%) New

SNP: 975 (29.9%) +1.0%

Lab: 799 (24.5%) -8.5%

Con: 342 (10.5%) -14.0%

Ref GAIN from Lab (elected at stage 4)

Triggered by the death of the Labour incumbent.  She was narrowly re-elected to this ward in 2022, collecting the fourth available council seat after no less than nine rounds of the single transferable vote system.  Her Labour colleague topped the poll on first preferences, while the other two seats went to the Conservatives and SNP.  Prior to this election, Labour were evenly split with the SNP in terms of council representation at 25 seats apiece, but it's Labour that lead the minority administration alongside a handful of Lib Dems and independents.  There were no Libertarian or UKIP candidates this time and, embarrassingly, the Labour candidate resorted to a crowdfunding site to fund his campaign.  A wee bit of party support would have probably had only a negligable bearing on his dreadful third place.  A stunning gain for Reform, which is sure to wind up the left-wing establishment north of the border.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Kinwarton, Stratford-upon-Avon District Council

Con: 507 (36.4%) +2.9%

LDm: 500 (35.9%) -20.8%

Ref: 231 (16.6%) New

Grn: 128 (9.2%) +6.0%

Lab: 28 (2.0%) -4.7%

Con GAIN from LDm

Another globetrotting Lib Dem was responsible for this vacancy, having relocated to Australia.  The Lib Dems won here by a reasonable margin in 2023, following boundary changes.  The Conservatives finished second on that occasion, but appeared to have been aided by the injection of a Reform candidate this time.  A significant and highly unusual swing from the Lib Dems to Reform allowed the Tories to take first place by the slender margin of seven votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Baruc, Vale of Glamorgan Council

Pld: 856 (47.7%) +11.2%

Ref: 429 (23.9%) New

Con: 219 (12.2%) -8.2%

Lab: 179 (10.0%) -15.1%

Grn: 90 (5.0%) -13.1%

LDm: 23 (1.3%) New

Pld HOLD

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent's election to the Senedd on May 7.  Despite being situated in the predominantly English-speaking town of Barry, this ward routinely returns Plaid councillors and the party led second-placed Labour in 2022 by a decent margin.  Plaid managed to hold with an increased majority - almost twice the votes of second placed Reform - while Labour crashed to fourth, indicative of their overall decline across Wales.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

The following contests were held earlier this week, on Tuesday, both stemming from the death of the same councillor.

Haslemere, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,181 (47.8%) -5.4%

Con: 797 (32.3%) -10.7%

Grn: 280 (11.3%) New

Ref: 213 (8.6%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the sudden death of the incumbent, aged 78.  The Lib Dem councillor had a long career in local government, including spells as mayor of the town of Haslemere and the borough of Waverley.  He also represented the ward of Haslemere West on Waverley Council, triggering an additional by-election (see below).  There hasn't been an election here since 2021, because the county council is being abolished next year and split into two entities.  Labour finished a distant last here in 2021 and did not bother to contest this time.  The Lib Dem and Tory vote share took a hit with new entries from the Greens and Reform.

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Haslemere West, Waverley Borough Council

LDm: 551 (58.6%) -5.4%

Grn: 164 (17.4%) New

Con: 141 (15.0%) -7.0%

Ref: 84 (8.9%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who also represented Haslemere on Surrey County Council (see above).  Labour finished last here in 2023 and didn't contest this time.  Again, there was a swing to the incoming Greens and Reform from both the Lib Dems and Tories, but not enough to dramatically alter the outcome.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Karl led Richey by two points going into week 8 of their head to head, which closed to one point following Tuesday's double bill.  Their accuracy rate on Thursday wasn't great, but Richey stunned Karl by correctly predicting twice as many results as his opponent.  Richey now leads Karl for the first time, while their combined accuracy rate remains above the 50 per cent mark.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.07.26

Twelve seats were up for grabs on Thursday - four Conservative defences, two each for Labour and the Lib Dems, one each for Plaid Cymru and a local independent group, plus two free-for-alls.

Labour only contested eight seats this week and the apparent bounce they enjoyed last week on the back of Starmer's resignation was muted at best.  They collected three wooden spoons, which included tallies of just 14 votes in the Cotswolds and 15 votes in mid-Wales.  Their vote share was mostly down, they lost a seat to Reform in Leicestershire and only just held them off for a narrow hold in Shropshire.

Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 741 (36.5%) -10.0%

Ref: 465 (22.9%) New

Con: 431 (21.3%) -20.0%

Ind: 150 (7.4%) New

Ind: 132 (6.5%) New

LDm: 56 (2.8%) -9.4%

SFP: 54 (2.7%) New

SNP GAIN from Con (elected at stage 6)

Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent, who had been serving as an independent since leaving the Conservatives a year after he was elected in 2022.  The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats.  Labour and the Greens remain absent from this ward, which helped the SNP to a relatively easy gain, despite a dip in vote share attributable to multiple newcomers in Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents.  One of the independents was ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.  He couldn't even beat the other independent and finished fifth on first preferences.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

Ind: 1,186 (50.0%) +10.8%

Ref: 541 (22.8%) -2.8%

Lab: 343 (14.5%) +3.4%

Grn: 189 (8.0%) -4.1%

Con: 71 (3.0%) -2.3%

LDm: 27 (1.1%) -0.4%

Ind: 13 (0.5%) New

Ind HOLD

An easy defence for local independent group the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents.  The incumbent had been elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent.  He resigned from the council in May.

Karl - Ind HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind HOLD ✔

Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

Ind: 1,365 (35.7%) New

Con: 974 (25.5%) +3.7%

Ref: 778 (20.3%) New

Lab: 564 (14.7%) -5.8%

LDm: 142 (3.7%) -11.9%

Ind GAIN from Con

Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'.  He was elected in 2023, having finished third and taking the third and final available seat.  Independent candidates have finished in first place here since 2019 and that remained the case on Thursday, with the Conservatives closing on them slightly, despite an impressive new entry from Reform.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✔

St Michael's, Cotswold District Council

LDm: 344 (58.4%) -10.0%

Con: 112 (19.0%) -12.5%

Ref: 91 (15.4%) New

Grn: 27 (4.6%) New

Lab: 15 (2.5%) New

LDm HOLD

Three new entries took votes away from the only parties that contested this seat in 2023, but it was a routine hold for the Lib Dems nonetheless.  A change of career led to the resignation of their incumbent, who had a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age.  He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years.  He simultaneously stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also held on Thursday (see Cirencester Park below).

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council

Con: 928 (37.9%) -25.0%

Ref: 823 (33.6%) New

LDm: 629 (25.7%) -11.4%

Grn: 68 (7.8%) +2.8%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s.  He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems.  The victorious candidate this time was the deceased's elderly widow, who finished comfortably ahead of second placed Reform despite a significant swing to the newcomers.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council

LDm: 1,369 (58.7%) +6.6%

Con: 429 (18.4%) +2.9%

Ref: 366 (15.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 111 (4.8%0 -1.2%

Lab: 59 (2.5%) -2.6%

LDm HOLD

The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously.  He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025 and his successor held with an expanded share of the vote.  Another wooden spoon for Labour.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council

Ref: 403 (28.2%) +21.5%

Con: 386 (27.0%) +4.5%

Lab: 271 (19.0%) -13.4%

LDm: 270 (18.9%) -11.6%

Grn: 97 (6.8%) -0.9%

Ref GAIN from Lab

This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79, which had a huge impact on the council.  His passing meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader.  The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration.  With Labour losing this seat to Reform, the finely balanced numbers remain in the Tories' favour and they can continue with their own minority administration.  All three of the rainbow parties saw their vote share take a dip here, with Labour plummeting to third.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Glantwymyn, Powys County Council

Pld: 513 (81.8%) -18.2%

Ref: 63 (10.0%) New

Con: 28 (4.5%) New

LDm: 23 (3.7%) New

Pld HOLD

The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7.  Plaid were elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022 and it was a routine hold for them on Thursday, despite the presence of three new entries.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council

Ref: 359 (41.6%) New

LDm: 226 (26.2%) -20.1%

Con: 210 (24.3%) New

Ind: 51 (5.9%) New

Grn: 18 (2.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

A nice result for Reform in rural Wales, turning a defection into a gain.  The incumbent vacated the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen.  She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election.  By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had left Abolish and was elected as an independent.  Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd.  Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council

LDm: 297 (39.7%) -1.1%

Ref: 259 (34.6%) New

Pld: 96 (12.8%) New

Con: 68 (9.1%) -50.2%

Grn: 15 (2.0%) New

Lab: 14 (1.9%) New

LDm GAIN from Con

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK.  Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025.  He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper was much more crowded on Thursday.  The Tories ended up slumping to fourth, while Reform went straight in at second and lost out by just 38 votes.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council

Lab: 590 (42.9%) -32.2% Ref: 569 (41.4%) New Con: 104 (7.6%) -10.3% Grn: 76 (5.5%) New LDm: 35 (2.5%) -4.4%

Lab HOLD

A narrow 21 vote hold for Labour as they saw their majority crumble with a colossal swing to Reform.  The incumbent Labour councillor has been the town's MP for the last two years, but unlike Scotland and Wales - where Holyrood and Senedd members are forced to relinquish council roles - there is no such mechanism for Westminster MPs.  He only stood down from the council following his recent appointment as a government whip, and even then only after being 'advised' to do so.  His wife continues to serve as a councillor for the same ward.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council

Ref: 505 (42.7%) New Lab: 362 (30.6%) +3.4% Pld: 190 (16.1%) -1.6% Con: 58 (4.9%) New Grn: 49 (4.1%) -6.8%

LDm: 18 (1.5%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK.  And again, the new MS was never elected as a Reform councillor.  The journeyman was initially elected in 2017 as an independent, joined the Conservatives a year later and then quit the party the following year.  He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year.  Regardless of the incumbent's back and forth, Reform turned this contest into an impressive gain at the first time of asking.  No independents stood this time, while Labour selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.  Worrying that he finished a strong second.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Karl led Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from the 54 seats contested since May 7.  Richey has managed to claw a point back, correctly predicting nine results against Karl's eight and moving back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

BY-ELECTIONS 18.06.26

It's an absolute bonanza this week, with no less than three Westminster by-elections and 18 council seats up for grabs.  The full list of results can be found below in three sections, beginning with the big three...

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTIONS

Aberdeen South

Douglas Lumsden (Con) 14,308 (49.5%) +25.1%

Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.6%) -4.3%

Jo Hart (Ref) 2,478 (8.6%) +1.7%

Nurul Hoque Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.4%) -19.4%

Mel Sullivan (LDm) 1,270 (4.4%) -1.9%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Grn) 974 (3.4%) -0.1%

David Ballantine (AfD) 59 (0.2%) New

Con GAIN from SNP

A huge win for the Conservatives this, and a hard fought victory that will bring relief to a beleaguered leader in Westminster who visited this seat multiple times during the campaign.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Stephen Flynn, who stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  The seat historically flipped between Labour and Conservative, up until the SNP wave of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly in 2017, but it has been in the grip of the SNP since 2019.  Their candidate was defending a 3,758 majority, but capitulated to the Tories in spectacular fashion.  The new Conservative MP will have a 6,050 majority going into the next elections.  Labour only just saved their deposit here, while there was a disappointing debut for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, a little known right-wing libertarian party led by someone called Dr Teck Khong (not a made up name, seriously).

Karl - SNP HOLD ✘

Rich - SNP HOLD ✘

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Lara Bird  (SNP) 9,802 (41.1%) +5.7%

Jack Cruickshanks (Con) 4,624 (19.4%) +3.9%

Bill Reid (Ref) 4,341 (18.2%) +9.6%

Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.3%) -18.1%

Tanvir Ahmad (LDm) 1,452 (6.1%) +1.0%

SNP HOLD

This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Stephen Gethins, who like Flynn, vacated the seat after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.  However, the SNP faired much better here and actually increased their majority as the pack behind them jostled for position.  Labour crashed from second to fourth, but unusually all candidates saved their deposits, including the last placed Lib Dems.  This seat had been created through the boundary changes that were introduced at the 2024 general election.  It was created from an amalgamation of two now defunct seats Dundee East and Angus, both of which were held by the SNP.  The SNP majority did not fair well in the new seat, keeping Labour at bay in 2024 by the slender margin of 859.  They now have a much healthier majority of 5,178.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Makerfield

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.8%)  +0.7%

Rob Kenyon (Ref) 15,696 (34.5%) +16.4%

Rebecca Shepherd (Res) 3,111 (6.8%) New

Michael Winstanley (Con) 997 (2.2%) -13.4%

Sarah Wakefield (Grn) 308 (0.7%) -2.8%

Jake Austin (LDm) 163 (0.4%) -2.5%

Count Binface (Ind) 95 (0.2%) New

Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 45 (0.1%) New

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.1%) New

Peter Ward (REU) 35 (0.1%) New

Dan Clarke (Lbt) 18 (<0.1%)  New

Ed Gemmell (Clm) 18 (<0.1%) New

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (<0.1%) New

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

A stunning win for Burnham and proof - if it were needed - of why he is so dangerous.  On an increased turnout, he extended his predecessor's 5,399 majority to a 9,231 majority - albeit still way off the 26,177 majority that the party enjoyed at its peak in 1997.  Labour have held this seat since its creation in 1983.  There is little doubt that the 3,111 votes obtained by Restore Britain added to Burnham's majority, but in terms of determining the winner their input was largely irrelevent.  This by-election had been triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons after less than two years in the role, simply in order to allow Burnham to re-enter the Commons and take up residence in Ten Downing Street.  Burnham's victory speech left little doubt about his ambition and there is clearly trouble ahead for Starmer in the coming days.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

POSTPONED COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Idle & Thackley, City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

(three seats)

LDm: 2,784 (19.0%)

LDm: 2,746 (18.7%)

LDm: 2,714 (18.5%)

Ref: 1,582 (10.8%)

Ref: 1,573 (10.7%)

Ref: 1,528 (10.4%)

Grn: 237 (1.6%)

Grn: 229 (1.6%)

Lab: 208 (1.4%)

Grn: 204 (1.4%)

LDm HOLD x 3

This election was rolled over from May 7th, when the ward was due to elect its three members alongside the rest of the council.  It was postponed after one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors passed away.  The Lib Dems usually romp home here, but the boundaries have been redrawn slightly for this election.  There was a small dip in their vote share, but they held off newcomers Reform with ease.  Intriguingly, Labour only fielded a single candidate.  They needn't have bothered at all.

Karl - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD x 3 ✔

Moorside, Bury Metropolitan Borough Council

Lab: 1,308 (39.4%) -4.5%

Ref: 1,030 (31.1%) New

WPB: 609 (18.4%) New

Grn: 200 (6.0%) New

Con: 108 (3.3%) -21.5%

Ind: 61 (1.8%) -29.5%

Lab HOLD

Postponed from May 7th, due to the death of the Reform candidate.  The size of the ballot for this seat doubled from 2024, with Reform, the Greens and Workers Party of Britain joining Labour, the Conservatives and Bury Independents.  Labour managed a rare hold, holding off a challenge from Reform.  George Galloway's party also fared well on debut, amassing more than three times the number of votes received by the Greens.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Chelmsford Springfield, Essex County Council

LDm: 3,203 (54.6%) +8.6%

Ref: 1,616 (27.5%) New

Con: 723 (12.3%) -25.1%

Grn: 216 (3.7%) -2.3%

Lab: 110 (1.9%) -7.3%

LDm HOLD

Due to be held on May 7th along with the rest of the council wards, this seat was postponed after the incumbent passed away.  The boundaries were redrawn slightly, which appeared to favour the Lib Dems.  There was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Hillingdon West, Hillingdon London Borough Council

(two seats)

Con: 1,084 (24.4%)

Con: 949 (21.3%)

Lab: 470 (10.6%)

Ref: 433 (9.7%)

Lab: 362 (8.1%)

Grn: 353 (7.9%)

Ref: 347 (7.8%)

Grn: 341 (7.7%)

LDm: 63 (1.4%)

LDm: 49 (1.1%)

Con HOLD x 2

This election for two seats was postponed after one of the two Reform candidates passed away.  Reform and the Lib Dems were on debut here and the formwe did a fair bit of damage to the Lab-Con vote share.  The Tory vote share was down almost 10 per cent, while Labour's was down almost 15 per cent.  The Lib Dems made virtually no impact at all.

Karl - Con HOLD x 2 ✔

Rich - Con HOLD x 1 ✔ Ref GAIN x 1  ✘

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

Gogarth Mostyn, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 496 (33.8%) New

Con: 406 (27.7%) -6.2%

Lab: 368 (26.3%) -9.7%

LDm: 178 (12.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

One of two complicated vacancies in Conwy, triggered by the election of the incumbents to the Senedd last month.  Both were elected as Tory councillors in 2022, but defected to Reform last summer and are now MSs.  Reform has now managed to convert this defection into an electoral victory, appearing to take advantage of the lack of an independent candidate this time.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Tudno, Conwy County Borough Council

Ref: 357 (43.4%) New

Con: 180 (21.9%) -7.0%

Lab: 171 (20.8%) -9.8%

Grn: 71 (8.6%) New

LDm: 43 (5.2%) -10.5%

Ref GAIN from Con

The second of two Conwy vacancies triggered in the same way.  There were no independents this time around and Reform stormed into first place to cement a defection as an electoral gain.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Rayleigh West, Essex County Council

Con: 1,515 (35.4%) +17.5% LDm: 1,262 (29.5%) +2.9% Ref: 1,046 (24.4%) -15.3% Grn: 225 (5.3%) -0.8%

Ind: 117 (2.7%) New Lab: 85 (2.0%) -1.9% Ind: 35 (0.8%) New

Con GAIN from Ref

This contest was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, less than a week after being elected in last month's council elections.  Labour-linked 'Hope Not Hate' had uncovered 'Islamophobic' social media posts in the run-up to election day and the newly elected councillor was expelled by Reform and effectively pushed out of office.  Having also won a seat on Rochford District Council, his departure also triggered a separate by-election (see below).  Two independents joined the new ballot, while the local residents' group dropped out.  The Tories surged from distant third to first, in what was an impressive gain, while the Lib Dems maintained second place and pushed Reform into third.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Crofton Park, Lewisham London Borough Council

Grn: 1,340 (44.9%) -7.5%

Lab: 1,330 (44.5%) +13.9%

Ref: 127 (4.3%) -0.8%

LDm: 106 (3.5%) -2.9%

Con: 73 (2.4%) -3.1%

Ind: 10 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

The Greens triggered this by-election at a cost of at least £20,000 to local taxpayers, having selected the same person to stand for election as both councillor in this ward and elected mayor.  Having won both contests on May 7th, the new mayor was forced to resign as a councillor.  This ward is about as left as it gets, as shown by the Labour surge that almost won them the seat from the Greens.  There were just ten votes in it, while all the other parties lagged way behind.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, New Forest District Council

Con: 696 (39.3%) -20.7%

Grn: 459 (25.9%) +7.0%

Ref: 452 (25.5%) +10.1%

LDm: 126 (7.1%) +4.0%

Lab: 38 (2.1%) -0.4%

Con HOLD

A Conservative hold despite a sharp drop in their vote.  This followed the resignation of their sitting member, who had been embroiled in a spat with local residents.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Sweyne Park & Grange, Rochford District Council

Con: 1,049 (56.1%) +39.3%

Ref: 464 (24.8%) -14.9%

LDm: 247 (13.2%) -3.3%

Grn: 78 (4.2%) -3.9%

Lab: 31 (1.7%) -1.9%

Con GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent after 'Islamophobic' social media posts were uncovered (see Essex County Council above for more details).  The Tories were a distant second here six weeks ago, but they have turned the tables in spectacular fashion.  There was no candidate for the residents' group this time, which left the five main parties to battle it out.  Labour and the Greens could muster barely a hundred votes between them.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Mumbles, Swansea Council

Con: 933 (37.3%) -4.7%

Lab: 460 (18.4%) -11.0%

Ref: 458 (18.3%) New

Pld: 268 (10.7%) +2.0%

Grn: 200 (8.0%) -5.4%

Ind: 118 (4.7%) New

LDm: 66 (2.6%) -3.9%

Con HOLD

A very similar scenario to Conwy (see above), in which a Reform councillor elected as a Conservative had vacated the seat, having gained election to the Senedd.  The incumbent was elected in 2022 as a Tory, but defected to Reform in 2025.  Reform could not turn the defection into electoral victory and finished third, two votes behind Labour.  It was a comfortable hold for the Conservatives, who will be relieved to have this seat back on the council.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

Morriston, Swansea Council

Lab: 908 (35.2%) -25.8%

Ref: 882 (31.8%) New

Pld: 569 (21.9%) New

Grn: 107 (4.1%) New

LDm: 93 (3.6%) -8.4%

Con: 87 (3.4%) -11.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the long-standing incumbent, whose passing was due in part to a fall from his mobility scooter at the age of 78.  His daughter became his successor, but only just.  She fended off a challenge from the Reform newcomer by just 36 votes, as the Labour vote in the Red Wall of South Wales continues to crumble.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✘

Acton & Maesydre, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 341 (38.8%) +1.8%

Ref: 300 (34.1%) New

Lab: 98 (11.1%) -14.4%

Ind: 78 (8.2%) New

Con: 52 (5.9%) -6.4%

LDm: 8 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.9%) -2.4%

Pld HOLD

This contest, along with the two following Wrexham vacancies, came about through the election of the incumbents to the Senedd.  Reform and the Lib Dems were new on the ballot, but it was Reform who took the fight to Plaid, losing out by just 41 votes and pushing Labour into third.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Grosvenor, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 208 (43.5%) -19.8%

Ref: 105 (22.0%) New

Lab: 99 (20.5%) -5.5%

Ind: 22 (4.6%) New

YrP: 20 (4.2%) New

Con: 12 (2.5%) -8.1%

Grn: 11 (2.3%) New

LDm: 2 (0.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The incumbent vacated the seat after having been elected to the Senedd last month.  This was a crowded ballot paper compared to the last election here in 2022, with Reform, the Greens, Lib Dems, an independent and Your Party standing this time around.  Yes, that is Your Party as in the shitshow created by Sultana and Corbyn.  Reform went straight in at second, but there were some miserly votes trailing them - Corbyn's party received just 20 votes, while the Lib Dems got just two!

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Queensway, Wrexham County Borough Council

Pld: 94 (40.9%) -33.9%

Ref: 86 (37.4%) New

Lab: 37 (16.1%) -5.9%

Grn: 11 (4.7%) New

Con: 2 (0.9%) -2.3%

Pld HOLD

The third and final Wrexham seat vacated by a newly elected Senedd member.  Plaid held once again, with Reform and the Greens on debut.  Reform capped off an impressive string of second places, losing out by eight votes on an abysmal turnout.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

With both lads going mostly like for like this week, Karl's lead was unlikely to be threatened.  Richey bested Karl this week by one seat, cutting his opponent's overall lead down to two.  Both now have more respectable success rates, above 50 per cent.  There are even more council seats up for grabs next week - a whopping 24 - so the numbers are set to change radically again.

PS. This is a bit of fun, but we fully acknowledge the absolute seriousness of these election results.

ABERDEEN & ARBROATH CANDIDATES

While the media focus remains on Makerfield, two other MPs will be elected the same day.  Two Westminster elections north of the border have been triggered by SNP incumbents having been elected to the Scottish Parliament.  Another reason for the general lack of interest is that both seats are very much expected to return more of the same.

The SNP does not have particularly large majorities in either seat, but with toxic Labour in second place last time around it is highly unlikely voters will swap one left-wing party for one that is currently tanking.  Aberdeen South is marginally more interesting, with the seat having historically switched between Labour and Conservative up until the SNP surge of 2015.  The Tories regained the seat briefly at the 2017 general election, but it returned to the SNP two years later and remained that way in 2024.

The Greens could squeeze Labour here, but then Reform will squeeze the Tories (and Labour).  With all that happening it's difficult to see anything other than an SNP hold.  The Alliance for Democracy and Freedom is a Unionist libertarian Christian party.

Aberdeen South by-election candidates

Nurul Hoque Ali (Labour)

David Ballantine (Alliance for Democracy and Freedom)

Jo Hart (Reform UK)

Douglas Lumsden (Conservative)

Jorg Shelton Eckstein (Green)

Mel Sullivan (Liberal Democrats)

Richard Thomson (Scottish National Party)

Aberdeen South 2024 general election result

Stephen Flynn (SNP) 15,213 (32.8%) -12.5%

M. Tauqeer Malik (Lab) 11,455 (24.7%) +15.9%

John Wheeler (Con) 11,300 (24.4%) -10.0%

Michael Pearce (Ref) 3,199 (6.9%) +6.5%

Jeff Goodhall (LDm) 2,921 (6.3%) -4.4%

Guy Ingerson (Grn) 1,609 (3.5%) +3.0%

Graeme Craib (SFP) 423 (0.9%) New

Sophie Molly (Ind) 225 (0.5%) New

SNP HOLD

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is a relatively new seat born from boundary changes set in 2023 and debuting a year later in the general election.  Most of the new seat comes from the now defunct Dundee East, which historically swayed between Labour and the SNP.  With a small majority of 859, this by-election presents a better chance for Labour usurping the SNP, aided further by the absence of a Green candidate splitting the left-wing vote three ways.

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry candidates

Tanvir Ahmad (Liberal Democrats)

Lara Bird (Scottish National Party)

Jack Cruickshanks (Conservative)

Heather Doran (Labour)

Bill Reid (Reform UK)

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry 2024 general election result

Stephen Gethins (SNP) 15,581 (35.3%) -15.6%

Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank (Lab) 14,722 (33.4%) +23.2%

Richard Brooks (Con) 6,841 (15.5%) -14.8%

Gwen Wood (Ref) 3,800 (8.6%) New

David Evans (LDm) 2,249 (5.1%) -2.9%

Ghazi Khan (Alb) 693 (1.6%) New

Moira Brown (Sov) 231 (0.5%) New

SNP HOLD

HM PRISON ABOLITION

Pink-haired weirdo Kate Nevens is one of the Green candidates for the Scottish Parliament regional list of Edinburgh and Lothians East.  In a campaign video posted to her Bluesky account (where else?) she discusses her desire to abolish the prison system: "Prisons are not safe, they're violent and they're poor for people's wellbeing".  Er, yeah, they're full of criminals you muppet.  They are where we send people who have been very, very naughty - as a punishment, a deterrent and to keep the rest of us safe.  Every single country on this planet has a prison system.

Prisons are not meant to be pleasant holiday homes you wet liberal, that would defeat their very purpose.  Needless to say, Kate is from the same university-educated class that turns a blind eye to all manner of crime, with the exception of the thought crimes they refer to as 'hate speech'.  As well as legalising hard drugs, she would probably decriminalise rape gangs in the name of progress and atonement for the colonial spread of the British Empire.

Watch Kate's prison pitch below, with Richey's input (four minute watch).

The Green Party is polling nationally at 16 per cent, level with Labour, according to the most recent YouGov poll,

HOLYROOD REJECTS MURDER BILL

MSPs have dealt another blow to hopes of getting so-called 'assisted dying' (legalised murder) on the statute books in the UK.  Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur had tabled the bill, which looked set to deliver a victory for the death cult following its passage through first reading last year.  However, twelve MSPs who had previously voted in favour, switched their votes on Tuesday's night.  Their decision was crucial in killing off the bill, swinging the vote by 69 votes to 57.

There were splits in all three main parties, with more than a third of SNP members voting against and a majority of Tory and Labour members also against.  Even the Lib Dems did not present a united front, despite the bill being proposed by one of their own.  One SNP member abstained, while there was no vote from Labour's Colin Smyth, who is currently suspended from both his party and the parliament building following several criminal charges relating to child pornography and his allegedly installing a secret camera in one of Holyrood's toilets.

Interesting to note that a clear majority of Labour MSPs rejected the bill, while their counterparts south of the border backed a similar bill by 224-160 (support for which outrageously included 13 Scottish MPs, despite the fact the legislation would only apply to England and Wales).  There was more consistency from the Conservatives who opposed the bills both north and south.

This was the third attempt to get 'assisted dying' through the Scottish Parliament since devolution began in 1999, but the first time it has cleared the first stage.  A similar bill that cleared the House of Commons is likely to be filibustered to death in the House of Lords, meaning that the UK maintains some independence from the aims of the globalist death cult.

Unfortunately, two British territories have recently approved the euthanasia of sick human beings.  Jersey and the Isle of Man could begin executing people next year, although there appear to be safeguards to prevent non-residents travelling from the mainland to take advantage of the legislation.

If such laws are allowed to gain a foothold here, it will open the door to a dystopian future in which euthanasia is a widely available lifestyle choice.  The situation in Canada is a prime example of the direction of travel.  'Assisted dying' was first introduced in Canada in 2016, but its scope has been widened multiple times to the point that one in 20 deaths in Canada are now state-sanctioned executions of human beings.  A further attempt to widen the law to include the mentally ill is currently tied up in court proceedings.

It is no coincidence that attempts to impose euthanasia laws on states and territories across the world are gaining pace and in many cases happening simultaneously (as in the various jurisdictions around the UK and Crown Dependencies).  The globalist death cult is desperate to bring down world population by any means and the useful idiots of parliamentarians in Canada, England, Jersey and the Isle of Man have brought great pleasure to the likes of Gates, Schwab, Soros, Harari and Blair.

MEME MONDAY #73

CCP spying and the Edinburgh stabbing rampage featured prominently in last week's efforts, with a couple of outings for Westminster's newest collaborator MP...  

Mon 2 Mar - 24 shares.  Hannah Spencer, bless.  The country her voters want

is quite different from the one she inhabits

Mon 2 Mar - 60 shares.  Another abhorrent rampage on Britain's
streets, later confirmed to be a consequence of open borders and
liberal immigration policies (by the Conservative government
in this instance)

Mon 2 Mar - 99 shares.  Sad to see in the comments there are a lot
of short-sighted people on the right regarding Israel's latest war

Tue 3 Mar - 74 shares

Tue 3 Mar - 0 shares.  It's fair to say this one confused a few followers.  US singer
Pink absolutely hates any comparison to Eddie Izzard - not necessarily because
she even knows who he is - but because her debauched progressive values
don't extend towards being compared to a biological male.  She threw a hissy
fit on X when someone posted a picture of Eddie to her on her birthday,
calling it 'hateful'.  So whatever you do, don't post a picture of Eddie Izzard
to Pink on her birthday, which is the eighth of September.  That's September 8,
right.  September the 8th.  Don't you do it!!

Tue 3 Mar - 201 shares

Wed 4 Mar - 66 shares.  The Scottish MP has since suspended
herself from the PLP pending the investigation into her husband

Thu 5 Mar - 1 share

Thu 5 Mar - 207 shares

Thu 5 Mar - 67 shares.  A roundabout way of declaring that diversity
is strength, but that's exactly what she is saying!

Fri 6 Mar - 60 shares.  Imagine hearing that you could enter the UK
illegally, get your asylum application rejected and the government offers
you £40,000 to leave?  What a deterrent that will be, not!

Fri 6 Mar - 31 shares.  Entered the UK in 2019, claiming to be a minor and got
British citizenship in 2023.  Seven years ago he couldn't have looked a day
over 46.  We must be mad, literally mad

Fri 6 Mar - 38 shares

Sat 7 Mar - 23 shares.  Didn't think people would be having this,
but turns out that people aren't at all surprised that BBC News has
a website in Pidgin English!

Sat 7 Mar - 46 shares

Sun 8 Mar - 3 shares.  The caption reads something like: Fancy a bit of
communism, I can help, call me

Sun 8 Mar - 54 shares

Sun 8 Mar - 34 shares.  Multiple versions of this photo have gone viral,
but it's not clear if the original was AI-generated or not.  To avoid any
potential legal issues, Karl manipulated it still further, removing items and
giving 'Lauren' a new appearance

Sun 8 Mar - 6 shares

Karl was busy with Facebook Stories last week, including another three editions of 'Diversity is Strength'.  We also received an impressive £40 donation that we are both very grateful for as it goes most of the way towards securing the cost of our domain name for binlabour.com

Thank you, friend.

Want to support our campaign?  You can buy us a metaphorical pint each here - it may not seem much, but it helps us pay for things like our web domain, software, ads and our X subscription.

Thank you.