Five council seats were filled this week - three Tory defences across the south of England and a pair of Reform defences in Essex. With Karl out of action, possibly for some time, head-to-head forecasts are on hold.
Labour contested four of the five seats, with all eyes on any signs of a 'Burnham bounce'. The headline results will undoubtedly be two Labour gains from Reform, something unheard of during Starmer's reign. However, those results were skewed by the circumstances surrounding the departure of the incumbents. Elsewhere, there was nothing for Labour to crow about. They suffered an almost double digit dip in vote share in Kent, as Reform came from nowhere to push them down from third to fourth. They were new entries in Gloucestershire, but finished a distant fourth, while fellow newcomers Reform garnered almost three times as many votes.
Exmouth Brixington, East Devon District Council
Con: 537 (35.2%) -2.1%
LDm: 450 (29.5%) -3.1%
Ref: 439 (28.7%) New
Grn: 101 (6.6%) -2.0%
Con HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, for reasons that she did not make public. The Conservatives won all three seats in this ward in 2023 and held one of them in a by-election the following year, albeit with a reduced majority. They managed to increase their majority slightly this time, as the Lib Dems slipped further behind. Labour, who finished third previously with 339 votes, dropped out this time. Reform were the only party that benefited from Labour's absence.
Cuxton, Halling & Riverside, Medway Council
Ref: 838 (35.7%) New
Con: 726 (30.9%) -12.9%
Grn: 482 (20.5%) -11.4%
Lab: 269 (11.4%) -9.1%
LDm: 35 (1.5%) -2.3%
Ref GAIN from Con
Triggered by the death of the 74-year-old Conservative incumbent. He had served as a councillor for more than 30 years, but had reportedly been suffering from vascular dementia for some time. This begs the question as to why he did not stand down earlier. He and his Tory colleague won both seats in this ward in 2023, a set of elections that ended 20 years of Conservative control in Medway. Labour required a significant Burnham bounce in order to add this seat to their ruling majority, but in fact they slumped from third to fourth as all the parties ceded vote share to Reform. A stunning gain from scatch for Farage's party.
Longwell Green, South Gloucestershire Council
Con: 951 (37.3%) -11.2%
Ref: 698 (27.4%) New
LDm: 511 (20.0%) -10.4%
Lab: 246 (9.7%) New
Grn: 143 (5.6%) New
Con HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the Conservative incumbent, who quit his role in order to join the Royal Navy. The Tories won both seats here in 2023, a contest in which they went up against only two Lib Dems and an independent. The independent received more than 600 votes, but did not stand this time. Of the three new entries, Reform topped the pile, with an underwhelming result for Labour.
Grays Riverside, Thurrock Council
Lab: 389 (30.2%) +3.8%
Ref: 362 (28.1%) -5.1%
Grn: 354 (27.5%) -1.9%
Con: 182 (14.1%) +3.1%
Lab GAIN from Ref
The first of an Essex double bill triggered by Reform councillors standing down just two weeks after being elected on May 7. The newly elected Riverside candidate said he needed to focus on supporting a family member with a serious illness. It must have been a sudden illness, either that or he didn't expect to win. Reform swept to power in Thurrock on May 7, taking all but four of the council's 49 seats. Labour went from controlling the council with 26 seats, to just two seats. They managed to double that tally on Thursday, thanks to a poor show by Reform. In Riverside, Labour sought to capitalise on historic social media posts by the defending Reform candidate. These posts dated back more than 12 years and were mostly of a misogynistic nature, alongside the use of a racial slur and some anti-disabled comments. It's difficult to present this result as evidence of a 'Burnham bounce'.
Grays Town, Thurrock Council
Lab: 673 (37.0%) +5.3%
Ref: 491 (27.0%) -7.8%
Ind: 235 (13.0%) New
Con: 224 (12.3%) +1.3%
Grn: 160 (8.8%) -7.3%
LDm: 34 (1.9%) -4.5%
Lab GAIN from Ref
The newly elected Reform councillor stood down after May 7, citing 'a change in personal circumstances'. With just a fortnight having passed, those circumstances must have changed pretty damn quick! As with the Riverside vacancy (see above), Reform chose one of its four unsuccessful candidates from May 7 in order to defend the seat. He failed to do so, with Labour climbing from second place to take an unlikely gain. Perhaps Reform activists had been diverted to Clacton during the campaign, or perhaps this really was a Burnham bounce. Multiple factors were at play in the two Thurrock seats, not least an electorate unhappy with being asked to vote again so soon due to poor candidate vetting.
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