Prior to the general election we focused on eight UK cities as part of our 'In Focus' weekly feature. We included an election prediction for each of the 44 constituencies within those cities. We are quite proud to announce we only got two wrong. Of course it's relatively easy to predict most holds as they are generally safe seats, it's seat changes that are more difficult to forecast. We said five seats would change hands and we got three of those correct.
First of all the ones we got correct...
Birmingham Edgbaston (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Hall Green (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Hodge Hill (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Ladywood (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Northfield (Con GAIN)
Birmingham Perry Barr (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Selly Oak (Lab HOLD)
Birmingham Yardley (Lab HOLD)
Sutton Coldfield (Con HOLD)
Blackley & Broughton (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Central (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Gorton (Lab HOLD)
Manchester Withington (Lab HOLD)
Wythenshawe & Sale East (Lab HOLD)
Glasgow Central (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow East (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow North (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow North East (SNP GAIN)
Glasgow North West (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow South (SNP HOLD)
Glasgow South West (SNP HOLD)
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield Central (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield Heeley (Lab HOLD)
Sheffield South East (Lab HOLD)
Penistone & Stocksbridge (Con GAIN)
Liverpool Riverside (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool Walton (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool Wavertree (Lab HOLD)
Liverpool West Derby (Lab HOLD)
Garston & Halewood (Lab HOLD)
Bristol East (Lab HOLD)
Bristol North West (Lab HOLD)
Bristol South (Lab HOLD)
Bristol West (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff Central (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff North (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff South & Penarth (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff West (Lab HOLD)
Romsey & Southampton North (Con HOLD)
Southampton Itchen (Con HOLD)
Southampton Test (Lab HOLD)
And the ones we got wrong...
Birmingham Erdington (Lab HOLD) - we said this would be a Con GAIN
Sheffield Hallam (Lab HOLD) - we said this would be a Lib Dem GAIN
In Focus should return at some point in the New Year.
Showing posts with label In Focus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label In Focus. Show all posts
Tuesday, 24 December 2019
Thursday, 12 December 2019
IN FOCUS: SOUTHAMPTON
The major seaport of Southampton has been a city since 1964, although it did not obtain full unitary authority status until 1997. Before this Southampton was administered as a district within Hampshire County Council. Since then Southampton City Council has been administered by all three of the main parties. For Westminster elections the city has been fought over by the same parties for decades. Going into this election the Tories have two of the three seats.
City Council: Labour, since 2012
Composition: Labour (29 cllrs), Conservative (18), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 85.9%, Asian 8.4%, black 2.2, mixed 2.4%, other 1.1%
EU referendum: 54% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Romsey & Southampton North (Caroline Nokes, Con) majority 18,006
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Southampton Itchen (Royston Smith, Con) majority 31
Southampton City Council consists of 16 electoral wards, each returning three councillors. Labour has controlled the council twice - from 1997-2000 and since 2012. The Conservatives had control between 2008-2012. There were eight years of no overall control in the noughties, during which Labour ran a minority administration for two years, followed by the Lib Dems for four years, followed by the Tories for two. The Lib Dems lost their last council seats in 2014, due in large part to their role in the coalition government.
The last time a party won all the Parliamentary seats in Southampton was following the 1987 general election when the Tories won a clean sweep. At this time the seat of Romsey did not include any Southampton territory, but boundary changes in 1997 took in one Southampton council ward. Further boundary changes in 2010 took in another Southampton council ward and it was re-named Romsey and Southampton North.
The constituencies of Test and Itchen are named after the two major rivers that meet here.
Southampton returned a Leave vote in 2016, although the Labour member for Test opposed the triggering of Article 50. His constituency returned a narrow 50.59% Remain vote. Leave voting Itchen is currently held by the Conservatives with one of the smallest majorities in the UK at just 31 votes. None of these seats are expected to change hands at this election.
Incumbent: Royston Smith (Con), majority 31
Born: Southampton, 1955
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Leave
Notes: Former RAF engineer. Former leader of Southampton City Council. Elected to Parliament at second attempt. Recipient of George Medal in 2012 after helping to apprehend an armed killer.
Southampton Itchen has been held by the Conservatives since 2015, before which it was Labour. Smith is defending one of the smallest majorities in the country.
EU referendum: 60% Leave
General election 2017
Royston Smith (Con) 21,773 (46.5%) +4.8%
Simon Letts (Lab) 21,742 (46.5%) +9.9%
Eleanor Bell (Lib Dem) 1,421 (3.0%) -0.5%
Kim Rose (UKIP) 1,122 (2.4%) -11.0%
Rosie Pearce (Green) 725 (1.6%) -2.6%
General election candidates 2019
Royston Smith (Con)
Simon Letts (Lab)
Liz Jarvis (Lib Dem)
Kim Rose (UKIP)
Osman Sen-Chadun (Green)
BTLP general election prediction: Con HOLD
Born: Middlesex, 1950
First elected: 1997
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Another former leader of Southampton City Council. Elected to Parliament at the fourth attempt. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 Labour leadership election.
Southampton Test has been held by Labour since 1997, before which it was held by the Conservatives
EU referendum: 51% Remain
General election 2017
Alan Whitehead (Lab) 27,509 (58.7%) +17.4%
Paul Holmes (Con) 16,006 (34.1%) +1.6%
Thomas Gravatt (Lib Dem) 1,892 (4.0%) -0.9%
Andrew Pope (S'oton) 816 (1.7%) New
Keith Morrell (Ind) 680 (1.4%) New
General election candidates 2019
Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Steven Galton (Con)
Population (2017 est): 252,400
Composition: Labour (29 cllrs), Conservative (18), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 85.9%, Asian 8.4%, black 2.2, mixed 2.4%, other 1.1%
EU referendum: 54% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Romsey & Southampton North (Caroline Nokes, Con) majority 18,006
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Southampton Itchen (Royston Smith, Con) majority 31
Southampton City Council consists of 16 electoral wards, each returning three councillors. Labour has controlled the council twice - from 1997-2000 and since 2012. The Conservatives had control between 2008-2012. There were eight years of no overall control in the noughties, during which Labour ran a minority administration for two years, followed by the Lib Dems for four years, followed by the Tories for two. The Lib Dems lost their last council seats in 2014, due in large part to their role in the coalition government.
The last time a party won all the Parliamentary seats in Southampton was following the 1987 general election when the Tories won a clean sweep. At this time the seat of Romsey did not include any Southampton territory, but boundary changes in 1997 took in one Southampton council ward. Further boundary changes in 2010 took in another Southampton council ward and it was re-named Romsey and Southampton North.
The constituencies of Test and Itchen are named after the two major rivers that meet here.
Southampton returned a Leave vote in 2016, although the Labour member for Test opposed the triggering of Article 50. His constituency returned a narrow 50.59% Remain vote. Leave voting Itchen is currently held by the Conservatives with one of the smallest majorities in the UK at just 31 votes. None of these seats are expected to change hands at this election.
Southampton Itchen
Born: Southampton, 1955
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Leave
Notes: Former RAF engineer. Former leader of Southampton City Council. Elected to Parliament at second attempt. Recipient of George Medal in 2012 after helping to apprehend an armed killer.
Southampton Itchen has been held by the Conservatives since 2015, before which it was Labour. Smith is defending one of the smallest majorities in the country.
EU referendum: 60% Leave
General election 2017
Royston Smith (Con) 21,773 (46.5%) +4.8%
Simon Letts (Lab) 21,742 (46.5%) +9.9%
Eleanor Bell (Lib Dem) 1,421 (3.0%) -0.5%
Kim Rose (UKIP) 1,122 (2.4%) -11.0%
Rosie Pearce (Green) 725 (1.6%) -2.6%
General election candidates 2019
Royston Smith (Con)
Simon Letts (Lab)
Liz Jarvis (Lib Dem)
Kim Rose (UKIP)
Osman Sen-Chadun (Green)
BTLP general election prediction: Con HOLD
Southampton Test
Incumbent: Alan Whitehead (Lab), majority 11,508Born: Middlesex, 1950
First elected: 1997
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Another former leader of Southampton City Council. Elected to Parliament at the fourth attempt. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 Labour leadership election.
Southampton Test has been held by Labour since 1997, before which it was held by the Conservatives
EU referendum: 51% Remain
General election 2017
Alan Whitehead (Lab) 27,509 (58.7%) +17.4%
Paul Holmes (Con) 16,006 (34.1%) +1.6%
Thomas Gravatt (Lib Dem) 1,892 (4.0%) -0.9%
Andrew Pope (S'oton) 816 (1.7%) New
Keith Morrell (Ind) 680 (1.4%) New
General election candidates 2019
Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Steven Galton (Con)
Joe Richards (Lib Dem)
Philip Crook (Brexit)
Katherine Barbour (Green)
Kev Barry (Ind)
Katherine Barbour (Green)
Kev Barry (Ind)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Caroline Nokes (Con) 28,668 (57.1%) +2.8%
Catherine Royce (Lib Dem) 10,662 (21.3%) +3.5%
Darren Paffey (Lab) 9,614 (19.2%) +7.3%
Ian Callaghan (Green) 953 (1.9%) -2.8%
Don Jerrard (Justice) 271 (0.5%) New
Romsey & Southampton North
Incumbent: Caroline Nokes (Con), majority 18,006
Born: Hampshire, 1972
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Nokes was elected to Parliament at the third attempt. A member of Theresa May's cabinet until she was sacked by new PM Boris Johnson. She was one of 21 MPs to have the whip removed after voting to extend Article 50, but later had the whip restored. She is defending her seat in this election as a Conservative.
Romsey & Southampton North has been held by the Conservatives since it was created through boundary changes in 2010. The new entity largely resembled the abolished Romsey constituency, this had been held by the Liberal Democrats since a by-election in 2000.
EU referendum: 54% Remain, strongest Remain vote in Southampton
General election 2017
Caroline Nokes (Con) 28,668 (57.1%) +2.8%
Catherine Royce (Lib Dem) 10,662 (21.3%) +3.5%
Darren Paffey (Lab) 9,614 (19.2%) +7.3%
Ian Callaghan (Green) 953 (1.9%) -2.8%
Don Jerrard (Justice) 271 (0.5%) New
General election candidates 2019
Caroline Nokes (Con)
Caroline Nokes (Con)
Craig Fletcher (Lib Dem)
Claire Ransom (Lab)
Claire Ransom (Lab)
Geoff Bentley (UKIP)
Note: This is a Remain Alliance seat where the Green Party have stood aside to give the Liberal Democrats a free run.
BTLP general election prediction: Con HOLD
Thursday, 5 December 2019
IN FOCUS: CARDIFF
The capital city of Wales is the eleventh largest city in the UK. The Welsh name for Cardiff is Caerdydd, although only one in five residents can speak the language. Despite being surrounded by one of Labour's most famous heartlands - the Valleys - Labour have rarely held all four Parliamentary seats over the years. In 2017 they captured Cardiff North from the Conservatives and for the first time in 12 years the city turned completely red. The city is split into these same divisions for elections to the Welsh Assembly (the Senedd) and all four seats are also currently held by Labour. The First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, represents Cardiff West in the Senedd.
City & County Council: Labour, since 2012
Composition: Labour (38 cllrs), Conservative (21), Lib Dem (11), Ind (5)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 84.7%, Asian 8.0%, mixed 2.9%, black 2.4, other 2.0%
EU referendum: 60% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens, Lab) majority 17,196
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin, Lab) majority 4,174
Cardiff is the seat of devolved power in Wales, despite voting decisively to reject devolution in the 1997 referendum. The city returned a 56% no vote, but the national result meant devolution was carried by the slimmest of margins - 0.6%. Labour became the biggest party in Cardiff's unwanted assembly following the first elections to it in 1999. The party has been in government ever since, albeit never with a majority, governing by coalition or minority. Following the last elections in 2016 Labour has been in government with the Liberal Democrats (for the second time). Labour was also in a coalition with Plaid Cymru between 2007 and 2011.
The four assembly members for Cardiff are as follows:
Cardiff Central - Jenny Rathbone (Lab)
Cardiff North - Julie Morgan (Lab)
Cardiff South & Penarth - Vaughan Gething (Lab)
Cardiff West - Mark Drakeford (Lab), First Minister of Wales
For local government the city is administered by the City and County of Cardiff Council. A bit of a mouthful it is usually referred to as merely Cardiff Council. This replaced the former city council authority in 1995. Labour has been the dominant power over the years, regaining full control in 2012 following the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. The Lib Dems ran a minority administration between 2004 and 2008, prior to forming a coalition with Plaid Cymru. The last time the Tories were in control here was in 1987.
Cardiff returned a significant Remain vote in 2016 and all four of its MPs are ardent Remainers. When MPs voted on triggering Article 50 in 2017 the three Labour MPs at that time all voted against. The Conservative MP for Cardiff North, Craig Williams, voted in favour. In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn all the Cardiff Labour MPs supported Owen Smith.
Please note the following constituency details relate to Westminster seats.
Jo Stevens (Lab) 25,193 (62.4%) +22.4%
Gregory Stafford (Con) 7,997 (19.8%) +5.1%
Eluned Parrott (Lib Dem) 5,415 (13.4%) -13.7%
Mark Hooper (Plaid) 999 (2.5%) -2.5%
Benjamin Smith (Green) 420 (1.0%) -5.3%
Mohammed Sarul-Islam (UKIP) 343 (0.8%) -5.6%
Incumbent: Anna McMorrin (Lab), majority 4,174
Born: 1971
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Ardent Remainer. She claims to have grown up near Brecon, but for some unknown reason her birthplace is a closely guarded secret.
Cardiff North has been held by Labour since 2017, before which it was Conservative. The seat has been held by the Tories for most of its 69 year history, during which it has returned just three Labour MPs.
EU referendum: 61% Remain
General election 2017
Anna McMorrin (Lab) 26,081 (50.1%) +11.9%
Craig Williams (Con) 21,907 (42.1%) -0.3%
Steffan Webb (Plaid) 1,738 (3.3%) -1.2%
Matt Hemsley (Lib Dem) 1,714 (3.3%) -0.5%
Gary Oldfield (UKIP) 582 (1.1%) -6.6%
General election candidates 2019
Anna McMorrin (Lab)
Mo Ali (Con)
Steffan Webb (Plaid)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Cardiff, 1980
First elected: 2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: One of Labour's most ardent Parliamentary Remainers. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.
Cardiff South & Penarth has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983
EU referendum: 57% Remain
General election 2017
Stephen Doughty (Lab) 30,182 (59.5%) +16.7%
Bill Rees (Con) 15,318 (30.2%) +3.4%
Ian Titherington (Plaid) 2,162 (4.3%) -3.1%
Emma Sands (Lib Dem) 1,430 (2.8%) -2.1%
Andrew Bevan (UKIP) 942 (1.9%) -11.9%
Anthony Slaughter (Green) 532 (1.0%) -2.7%
Jebediah Hedges (Pirate) 170 (0.3%) New
General election candidates 2019
Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Phillippa Broom (Con)
Population (2017 est): 364,248
Composition: Labour (38 cllrs), Conservative (21), Lib Dem (11), Ind (5)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 84.7%, Asian 8.0%, mixed 2.9%, black 2.4, other 2.0%
EU referendum: 60% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens, Lab) majority 17,196
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin, Lab) majority 4,174
Cardiff is the seat of devolved power in Wales, despite voting decisively to reject devolution in the 1997 referendum. The city returned a 56% no vote, but the national result meant devolution was carried by the slimmest of margins - 0.6%. Labour became the biggest party in Cardiff's unwanted assembly following the first elections to it in 1999. The party has been in government ever since, albeit never with a majority, governing by coalition or minority. Following the last elections in 2016 Labour has been in government with the Liberal Democrats (for the second time). Labour was also in a coalition with Plaid Cymru between 2007 and 2011.
The four assembly members for Cardiff are as follows:
Cardiff Central - Jenny Rathbone (Lab)
Cardiff North - Julie Morgan (Lab)
Cardiff South & Penarth - Vaughan Gething (Lab)
Cardiff West - Mark Drakeford (Lab), First Minister of Wales
For local government the city is administered by the City and County of Cardiff Council. A bit of a mouthful it is usually referred to as merely Cardiff Council. This replaced the former city council authority in 1995. Labour has been the dominant power over the years, regaining full control in 2012 following the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. The Lib Dems ran a minority administration between 2004 and 2008, prior to forming a coalition with Plaid Cymru. The last time the Tories were in control here was in 1987.
Cardiff returned a significant Remain vote in 2016 and all four of its MPs are ardent Remainers. When MPs voted on triggering Article 50 in 2017 the three Labour MPs at that time all voted against. The Conservative MP for Cardiff North, Craig Williams, voted in favour. In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn all the Cardiff Labour MPs supported Owen Smith.
Please note the following constituency details relate to Westminster seats.
Cardiff Central
Incumbent: Jo Stevens (Lab), majority 17,196
Born: Swansea, 1966
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: A solicitor and ardent Remainer. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Cardiff Central has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Liberal Democrats since 2005.
EU referendum: 68% Remain, strongest Remain vote in Cardiff
General election 2017
Jo Stevens (Lab) 25,193 (62.4%) +22.4%
Gregory Stafford (Con) 7,997 (19.8%) +5.1%
Eluned Parrott (Lib Dem) 5,415 (13.4%) -13.7%
Mark Hooper (Plaid) 999 (2.5%) -2.5%
Benjamin Smith (Green) 420 (1.0%) -5.3%
Mohammed Sarul-Islam (UKIP) 343 (0.8%) -5.6%
General election candidates 2019
Jo Stevens (Lab)
Jo Stevens (Lab)
Meirion Jenkins (Con)
Bablin Molik (Lib Dem)
Gareth Pearce (Brexit)
Brian Johnson (Socialist)
Siân Caiach (Gwlad)
Akil Kata (Ind)
Akil Kata (Ind)
Note: This is a Remain Alliance seat where Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have stood aside to give the Liberal Democrats a free run.
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Cardiff North
Born: 1971
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Ardent Remainer. She claims to have grown up near Brecon, but for some unknown reason her birthplace is a closely guarded secret.
Cardiff North has been held by Labour since 2017, before which it was Conservative. The seat has been held by the Tories for most of its 69 year history, during which it has returned just three Labour MPs.
EU referendum: 61% Remain
General election 2017
Anna McMorrin (Lab) 26,081 (50.1%) +11.9%
Craig Williams (Con) 21,907 (42.1%) -0.3%
Steffan Webb (Plaid) 1,738 (3.3%) -1.2%
Matt Hemsley (Lib Dem) 1,714 (3.3%) -0.5%
Gary Oldfield (UKIP) 582 (1.1%) -6.6%
General election candidates 2019
Anna McMorrin (Lab)
Mo Ali (Con)
Steffan Webb (Plaid)
Rhys Taylor (Lib Dem)
Chris Butler (Brexit)
Michael Cope (Green)
Richard Jones (Ind)
Chris Butler (Brexit)
Michael Cope (Green)
Richard Jones (Ind)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Cardiff South & Penarth
Incumbent: Stephen Doughty (Lab), majority 14,864Born: Cardiff, 1980
First elected: 2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: One of Labour's most ardent Parliamentary Remainers. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.
Cardiff South & Penarth has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983
EU referendum: 57% Remain
General election 2017
Stephen Doughty (Lab) 30,182 (59.5%) +16.7%
Bill Rees (Con) 15,318 (30.2%) +3.4%
Ian Titherington (Plaid) 2,162 (4.3%) -3.1%
Emma Sands (Lib Dem) 1,430 (2.8%) -2.1%
Andrew Bevan (UKIP) 942 (1.9%) -11.9%
Anthony Slaughter (Green) 532 (1.0%) -2.7%
Jebediah Hedges (Pirate) 170 (0.3%) New
General election candidates 2019
Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Phillippa Broom (Con)
Nasir Adam (Plaid)
Dan Schmeising (Lib Dem)
Green Ken Barker (Green)
Tim Price (Brexit)
Dan Schmeising (Lib Dem)
Green Ken Barker (Green)
Tim Price (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Cwmbran, 1959
First elected: 2001
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: A member of both the Blair and Brown governments. Another ardent Remainer and backer of Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election.
Scandals: Tiegate, Expenses scandal
Cardiff West has been held by Labour since 1987, before which it was briefly held by the Conservatives for one Parliamentary term
EU referendum: 56% Remain
General election 2017
Kevin Brennan (Lab) 26,425 (56.7%) +16.0%
Matt Smith (Con) 13,874 (29.8%) +4.6%
Michael Deem (Plaid) 4,418 (9.5%) -4.4%
Alex Meredith (Lib Dem) 1,214 (2.6%) -2.1%
Richard Lewis (UKIP) 698 (1.5%) -9.7%
General election candidates 2019
Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Carolyn Webster (Con)
Boyd Clack (Plaid)
Callum Littlemore (Lib Dem)
Cardiff West
Incumbent: Kevin Brennan (Lab), majority 12,551Born: Cwmbran, 1959
First elected: 2001
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: A member of both the Blair and Brown governments. Another ardent Remainer and backer of Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election.
Scandals: Tiegate, Expenses scandal
Cardiff West has been held by Labour since 1987, before which it was briefly held by the Conservatives for one Parliamentary term
EU referendum: 56% Remain
General election 2017
Kevin Brennan (Lab) 26,425 (56.7%) +16.0%
Matt Smith (Con) 13,874 (29.8%) +4.6%
Michael Deem (Plaid) 4,418 (9.5%) -4.4%
Alex Meredith (Lib Dem) 1,214 (2.6%) -2.1%
Richard Lewis (UKIP) 698 (1.5%) -9.7%
General election candidates 2019
Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Carolyn Webster (Con)
Boyd Clack (Plaid)
Callum Littlemore (Lib Dem)
Nick Mullins (Brexit)
David Griffin (Green)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
David Griffin (Green)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Thursday, 28 November 2019
IN FOCUS: BRISTOL
The city of Bristol contains four Parliamentary constituencies, all of which returned a Labour candidate in 2017 - the first time it has done so since 2001.
Population (2018 est): 463,400
City Council: Labour, since 2016
Composition: Labour (36 cllrs), Conservative (15), Green (11), Lib Dem (8)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 84.0%, black 6,0%, Asian 5.5%, mixed 3.6%, Arab 0.3%, other 0.6%
EU referendum: 62% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Bristol West (Thangam Debbonaire, Lab) majority 37,336
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Bristol North West (Darren Jones, Lab) majority 4,761
Bristol South and Bristol East have been held by Labour for decades, while Bristol North West is a marginal that has regularly changed hands between blue and red since its creation in 1950. Bristol West has been held by all three main parties, but threw a curve ball in the 2017 election. Having been recaptured by Labour in 2015 from the Lib Dems, the party inexplicably increased its majority from a mere 5,673 to more than 37,000 - the biggest swing to Labour in the entire country. The result was totally unexpected and raised a few eyebrows.
Bristol City Council has been controlled by Labour for most of its history, except for two years of Lib Dem control (2009-2011) and several periods of no overall control. After being punished by voters for their part in the coalition government, the Lib Dems have gradually fallen behind the Conservatives and the Greens.
Following a referendum in 2012, Bristol chose to elect its mayor. A local campaigner won the first contest on behalf of 'Bristol 1st', beating Labour into second place. Labour turned the tables in the second mayoral election and since 2016 the post has been held by Marvin Rees.
Bristol returned a big Remain vote in 2016 and does not have any Leave-voting seats. All of its MPs are Remainers, two of whom ignored party whips to vote against the triggering of Article 50. Only one of the four MPs was born in Bristol. Jeremy Corbyn found no support among Bristol's Labour MPs during the leadership challenge of 2016 as they all backed Owen Smith.
Kerry McCarthy (Lab) 30,847 (60.7%) +21.5%
Theodora Clarke (Con) 17,453 (34.4%) +3.7%
Chris Lucas (Lib Dem) 1,389 (2.7%) -3.1%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 1,110 (2.2%) -6.1%
Incumbent: Darren Jones (Lab), majority 4,761
Born: Bristol, 1986
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: An ardent Remainer, following his surprise election in 2017 he stated that stopping Brexit was his number one priority. Jones is also a solicitor and leads the Future Britain Group, a gathering of Labour moderates established by Tom Watson.
Bristol North West has been held by Labour since 2017, but has regularly changed hands between Labour and the Tories since its creation in 1950.
EU referendum: 61% Remain
General election 2017
Darren Jones (Lab) 27,400 (50.7%) +16.2%
Charlotte Leslie (Con) 22,639 (41.8%) -2.1%
Celia Downie (Lib Dem) 2,814 (5.2%) -1.0%
Sharmila Bousa (Green) 1,243 (2.3%) -3.4%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: London, 1964
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: The daughter of Irish immigrants. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.
Bristol South has been held by Labour since 1935
EU referendum: 52% Remain
General election 2017
Karin Smyth (Lab) 32,666 (60.1%) +21.7%
Mark Weston (Con) 16,679 (30.7%) +6.3%
Ben Nutland (Lib Dem) 1,821 (3.3%) -5.3%
Ian Kealey (UKIP) 1,672 (3.1%) -13.4%
Tony Dyer (Green) 1,428 (2.6%) -8.9%
John Langley (Ind) 116 (0.2%) New
General election candidates 2019
Karin Smyth (Lab)
City Council: Labour, since 2016
Composition: Labour (36 cllrs), Conservative (15), Green (11), Lib Dem (8)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 84.0%, black 6,0%, Asian 5.5%, mixed 3.6%, Arab 0.3%, other 0.6%
EU referendum: 62% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Bristol West (Thangam Debbonaire, Lab) majority 37,336
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Bristol North West (Darren Jones, Lab) majority 4,761
Bristol South and Bristol East have been held by Labour for decades, while Bristol North West is a marginal that has regularly changed hands between blue and red since its creation in 1950. Bristol West has been held by all three main parties, but threw a curve ball in the 2017 election. Having been recaptured by Labour in 2015 from the Lib Dems, the party inexplicably increased its majority from a mere 5,673 to more than 37,000 - the biggest swing to Labour in the entire country. The result was totally unexpected and raised a few eyebrows.
Bristol City Council has been controlled by Labour for most of its history, except for two years of Lib Dem control (2009-2011) and several periods of no overall control. After being punished by voters for their part in the coalition government, the Lib Dems have gradually fallen behind the Conservatives and the Greens.
Following a referendum in 2012, Bristol chose to elect its mayor. A local campaigner won the first contest on behalf of 'Bristol 1st', beating Labour into second place. Labour turned the tables in the second mayoral election and since 2016 the post has been held by Marvin Rees.
Bristol returned a big Remain vote in 2016 and does not have any Leave-voting seats. All of its MPs are Remainers, two of whom ignored party whips to vote against the triggering of Article 50. Only one of the four MPs was born in Bristol. Jeremy Corbyn found no support among Bristol's Labour MPs during the leadership challenge of 2016 as they all backed Owen Smith.
Bristol East
Incumbent: Kerry McCarthy (Lab), majority 13,394
Born: Luton, 1965
First elected: 2005
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Briefly a member of Corbyn's shadow cabinet for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, despite being a vegan and a vocal critic of meat-eating. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Expenses scandal, electoral fraud, Twitter train outburst
Scandals: Expenses scandal, electoral fraud, Twitter train outburst
Bristol East has been held by Labour since 1992
EU referendum: 53% Remain
General election 2017
Kerry McCarthy (Lab) 30,847 (60.7%) +21.5%
Theodora Clarke (Con) 17,453 (34.4%) +3.7%
Chris Lucas (Lib Dem) 1,389 (2.7%) -3.1%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 1,110 (2.2%) -6.1%
General election candidates 2019
Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Sarah Codling (Con)
Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Nick Coombes (Lib Dem)
Conan Connolly (Green)
Tim Page (Brexit)
Conan Connolly (Green)
Tim Page (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Bristol North West
Born: Bristol, 1986
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: An ardent Remainer, following his surprise election in 2017 he stated that stopping Brexit was his number one priority. Jones is also a solicitor and leads the Future Britain Group, a gathering of Labour moderates established by Tom Watson.
Bristol North West has been held by Labour since 2017, but has regularly changed hands between Labour and the Tories since its creation in 1950.
EU referendum: 61% Remain
General election 2017
Darren Jones (Lab) 27,400 (50.7%) +16.2%
Charlotte Leslie (Con) 22,639 (41.8%) -2.1%
Celia Downie (Lib Dem) 2,814 (5.2%) -1.0%
Sharmila Bousa (Green) 1,243 (2.3%) -3.4%
General election candidates 2019
Darren Jones (Lab)
Darren Jones (Lab)
Mark Weston (Con)
Chris Coleman (Lib Dem)
Heather Mack (Green)
Heather Mack (Green)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Bristol South
Incumbent: Karin Smyth (Lab), majority 15,987Born: London, 1964
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: The daughter of Irish immigrants. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.
Bristol South has been held by Labour since 1935
EU referendum: 52% Remain
General election 2017
Karin Smyth (Lab) 32,666 (60.1%) +21.7%
Mark Weston (Con) 16,679 (30.7%) +6.3%
Ben Nutland (Lib Dem) 1,821 (3.3%) -5.3%
Ian Kealey (UKIP) 1,672 (3.1%) -13.4%
Tony Dyer (Green) 1,428 (2.6%) -8.9%
John Langley (Ind) 116 (0.2%) New
General election candidates 2019
Karin Smyth (Lab)
Rick Morgan (Con)
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem)
Tony Dyer (Green)
Robert Boutin (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Peterborough, 1966
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Privately educated. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge. She holds the fourth highest majority of any MP in the country.
Bristol West has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems from 2005
EU referendum: 79% Remain, the third strongest Remain vote in the UK
General election 2017
Thangam Debbonaire (Lab) 47,213 (65.9%) +30.3%
Annabel Tall (Con) 9,877 (13.8%) -1.4%
Molly Scott Cato (Green) 9,216 (12.9%) -14.0%
Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) 5,201 (7.3%) -11.6%
Jodian Rodgers (Money Free) 101 (0.1%) New
General election candidates 2019
Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)
Suria Aujla (Con)
Carla Denyer (Green)
Neil Hipkiss (Brexit)
Note: This is a Remain Alliance seat, where the Liberal Democrats have stood down in order to give the Green Party a free run.
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Tony Dyer (Green)
Robert Boutin (Brexit)
Bristol West
Incumbent: Thangam Debbonaire (Lab), majority 37,336Born: Peterborough, 1966
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Privately educated. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge. She holds the fourth highest majority of any MP in the country.
Bristol West has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems from 2005
EU referendum: 79% Remain, the third strongest Remain vote in the UK
General election 2017
Thangam Debbonaire (Lab) 47,213 (65.9%) +30.3%
Annabel Tall (Con) 9,877 (13.8%) -1.4%
Molly Scott Cato (Green) 9,216 (12.9%) -14.0%
Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) 5,201 (7.3%) -11.6%
Jodian Rodgers (Money Free) 101 (0.1%) New
General election candidates 2019
Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)
Suria Aujla (Con)
Carla Denyer (Green)
Neil Hipkiss (Brexit)
Note: This is a Remain Alliance seat, where the Liberal Democrats have stood down in order to give the Green Party a free run.
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Thursday, 21 November 2019
IN FOCUS: LIVERPOOL
A supposed bastion of the hard left, Liverpool contains four Parliamentary constituencies inside its city boundaries. A fifth seat - Garston and Halewood - overlaps with neighbouring Knowsley and consists of five Liverpool council wards and three Knowsley wards. At the 2017 general election all five seats returned Labour MPs, but two of whom have since resigned from the party (Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman).
Population (2018 est): 494,814
City Council: Labour, since 2010
Composition: Labour (72 cllrs), Lib Dem (10), Green (4), Liberal (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.8%, Asian 4.1%, black 2.6%, mixed 2.5%, Arab 1.2%, other 0.8%
EU referendum: 58% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman, Ind*) majority 35,947
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Liverpool Wavertree (Luciana Berger, Lib Dem*) majority 29,466
* Elected as Labour MPs
Liverpool has returned a solid slate of Labour MPs since the Labour landslide of 1997. The last non-Labour MP elected here was the Liberal Democrat David Alton who held the seat of Liverpool Mossley Hill until its abolition in 1997. All five MPs elected in 2017 had huge majorities and Liverpool Walton is regarded as the safest Labour seat in Britain. However, of the five members elected in 2017 only two are defending their seats at the forthcoming election. Two Jewish MPs (Berger and Ellman) were driven out of the party and Stephen Twigg has opted not to stand again.
The recent selection process to replace these MPs was marred by controversy. Accusations of a stitch-up swirled as outsiders were installed on the ballot paper in favour of local candidates. One of those in the running was a councillor all the way from Islington no less. It wouldn't be the first time outsiders were chosen for the ultra safe seats of Liverpool, but this time the stitch-up was largely defeated. It should be noted that only one of the five incumbents is a Scouser. In a month's time this is highly likely to have risen to four out of five.
Although the Parliamentary return has been a solid red for more than two decades, contrary to popular opinion the city council has been less so. The famed hard left have frequently lost control in Liverpool over the years. Following the last Tory-led council of 1972 the council has actually spent more time out of Labour's control. Intermittent periods of no overall control was followed by a stable period of Lib Dem control between 1998 and 2010. Following the electoral backlash against Lib Dem involvement in the coalition government, Labour has asserted itself with an overwhelming majority. This is currently the longest ever period of Labour control in Liverpool.
A secondary layer of local government here is the Liverpool City Region. This combined authority also takes in the neighbouring local authorities of Halton, Knowsley, St Helens, Sefton and the Wirral. The elected mayor is Labour's Joe Anderson, also the leader of Liverpool City Council.
Liverpool voted to Remain in 2016 and all its MPs are Remainers, including three hard Remainers who in 2017 voted against triggering Article 50 (Ellman, Berger and Eagle). Despite the city's reputation, Jeremy Corbyn found little support among its MPs during the 2016 leadership challenge, four out of five of whom backed Owen Smith.
Louise Ellman (Lab) 40,599 (84.5%) +17.1%
Pamela Hall (Con) 4,652 (9.7%) +0.1%
Stephanie Pitchers (Green) 1,582 (3.3%) -8.8%
Tom Sebire (Lib Dem) 1,187 (2.5%) -1.4%
General election candidates 2019
Kim Johnson (Lab)
Incumbent: Dan Carden (Lab), majority 32,551
Born: Liverpool, 1986
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
Scandals: Hey Jews
Walton has been held by Labour since 1964. After the last general election it is the safest Labour seat in Britain.
EU referendum: 52% Leave, only Leave seat in Liverpool
General election 2017
Dan Carden (Lab) 36,175 (85.7%) +4.4%
Laura Evans (Con) 3,624 (8.6%) +3.9%
Terry May (Ind) 1,237 (2.9%) New
Kris Brown (Lib Dem) 638 (1.5%) -0.8%
Colm Feeley (Green) 523 (1.2%) -1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: London, 1981
First elected: 2010, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Berger is Jewish and quit Labour in February 2019 alongside six other MPs to form Change UK. She later switched to the Liberal Democrats, but will not defend her seat at the next election. Instead, she will be contesting the London seat of Finchley & Golders Green. Berger was privately educated. In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.
Wavertree was held by Labour since its creation in 1997
EU referendum: 65% Remain
General election 2017
Luciana Berger (Lab) 34,717 (79.5%) +10.2%
Denise Haddad (Con) 5,251 (12.0%) +2.0%
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem) 2,858 (6.5%) +0.5%
General election candidates 2019
Paula Barker (Lab)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: London, 1966
First elected: 1997, for Enfield Southgate
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Twigg rose to fame when he unseated cabinet minister Michael Portillo in 1997. The Tories retook the seat in 2005 and Twigg was out of Parliament until 2010 when he was selected for the safe Labour seat of Liverpool West Derby. Served on the front benches in both government and opposition, but is not standing this time. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Drunk and incapable
West Derby has been held by Labour since 1964
EU referendum: 50.2% Remain
General election 2017
Stephen Twigg (Lab) 37,371 (82.8%) +7.6%
Paul Richardson (Con) 4,463 (9.9%) +3.3%
Steve Radford (Liberal) 2,150 (4.8%) -0.2%
Paul Parr (Lib Dem) 545 (1.2%) -1.1%
Will Ward (Green) 329 (0.7%) -1.7%
Graham Hughes (Ind) 305 (0.7) New
General election candidates 2019
Steve Radford (Liberal)
Paul Parr (Lib Dem)
Will Ward (Green)
Ray Pearson (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: East Yorkshire, 1961
First elected: 1997
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Elected to Parliament at the second attempt (she unsuccessfully contested Crosby in 1992). Twin sister of fellow Labour MP Angela Eagle. Served on the front benches in both government and opposition. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Garston & Halewood has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010. It largely follows the boundaries of the previous seat of Liverpool Halewood which was held by Labour between 1983-2010. The new seat absorbed three council wards from neighbouring Knowsley.
EU referendum: 52% Remain
General election 2017
Maria Eagle (Lab) 41,599 (77.7%) +8.6%
Adam Marsden (Con) 9,450 (17.7%) +4.0%
Anna Martin (Lib Dem) 1,723 (3.2%) -1.5%
Lawrence Brown (Green) 750 (1.4%) -2.1%
General election candidates 2019
Maria Eagle (Lab)
City Council: Labour, since 2010
Composition: Labour (72 cllrs), Lib Dem (10), Green (4), Liberal (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.8%, Asian 4.1%, black 2.6%, mixed 2.5%, Arab 1.2%, other 0.8%
EU referendum: 58% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman, Ind*) majority 35,947
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Liverpool Wavertree (Luciana Berger, Lib Dem*) majority 29,466
* Elected as Labour MPs
Liverpool has returned a solid slate of Labour MPs since the Labour landslide of 1997. The last non-Labour MP elected here was the Liberal Democrat David Alton who held the seat of Liverpool Mossley Hill until its abolition in 1997. All five MPs elected in 2017 had huge majorities and Liverpool Walton is regarded as the safest Labour seat in Britain. However, of the five members elected in 2017 only two are defending their seats at the forthcoming election. Two Jewish MPs (Berger and Ellman) were driven out of the party and Stephen Twigg has opted not to stand again.
The recent selection process to replace these MPs was marred by controversy. Accusations of a stitch-up swirled as outsiders were installed on the ballot paper in favour of local candidates. One of those in the running was a councillor all the way from Islington no less. It wouldn't be the first time outsiders were chosen for the ultra safe seats of Liverpool, but this time the stitch-up was largely defeated. It should be noted that only one of the five incumbents is a Scouser. In a month's time this is highly likely to have risen to four out of five.
Although the Parliamentary return has been a solid red for more than two decades, contrary to popular opinion the city council has been less so. The famed hard left have frequently lost control in Liverpool over the years. Following the last Tory-led council of 1972 the council has actually spent more time out of Labour's control. Intermittent periods of no overall control was followed by a stable period of Lib Dem control between 1998 and 2010. Following the electoral backlash against Lib Dem involvement in the coalition government, Labour has asserted itself with an overwhelming majority. This is currently the longest ever period of Labour control in Liverpool.
A secondary layer of local government here is the Liverpool City Region. This combined authority also takes in the neighbouring local authorities of Halton, Knowsley, St Helens, Sefton and the Wirral. The elected mayor is Labour's Joe Anderson, also the leader of Liverpool City Council.
Liverpool voted to Remain in 2016 and all its MPs are Remainers, including three hard Remainers who in 2017 voted against triggering Article 50 (Ellman, Berger and Eagle). Despite the city's reputation, Jeremy Corbyn found little support among its MPs during the 2016 leadership challenge, four out of five of whom backed Owen Smith.
Liverpool Riverside
Incumbent: Louise Ellman (Ind), majority 35,947
Born: Manchester, 1945
First elected: 1997, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Ellman is Jewish and quit Labour in October 2019 in protest at Labour anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. This followed multiple attempts to have her deselected. She became Dame Louise Ellman in 2018. In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith. Ellman is not standing in the forthcoming election.
Riverside was held by Labour since its creation in 1983
EU referendum: 73% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Liverpool
General election 2017
Pamela Hall (Con) 4,652 (9.7%) +0.1%
Stephanie Pitchers (Green) 1,582 (3.3%) -8.8%
Tom Sebire (Lib Dem) 1,187 (2.5%) -1.4%
General election candidates 2019
Sean Malkeson (Con)
Tom Crone (Green)
Tom Crone (Green)
Robert McAllister-Bell (Lib Dem)
David Leach (Brexit)
David Leach (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Liverpool Walton
Born: Liverpool, 1986
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
Scandals: Hey Jews
Walton has been held by Labour since 1964. After the last general election it is the safest Labour seat in Britain.
EU referendum: 52% Leave, only Leave seat in Liverpool
General election 2017
Dan Carden (Lab) 36,175 (85.7%) +4.4%
Laura Evans (Con) 3,624 (8.6%) +3.9%
Terry May (Ind) 1,237 (2.9%) New
Kris Brown (Lib Dem) 638 (1.5%) -0.8%
Colm Feeley (Green) 523 (1.2%) -1.2%
General election candidates 2019
Dan Carden (Lab)
Alex Phillips (Con)
David Newman (Lib Dem)
Ted Grant (Green)
Billy Lake (Liberal)
Alex Phillips (Con)
David Newman (Lib Dem)
Ted Grant (Green)
Billy Lake (Liberal)
Note: UKIP came second here with 9% of the vote in 2015, so the absence of a Brexit Party candidate is rather inexplicable.
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Liverpool Wavertree
Incumbent: Luciana Berger (Lib Dem), majority 29,466Born: London, 1981
First elected: 2010, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Berger is Jewish and quit Labour in February 2019 alongside six other MPs to form Change UK. She later switched to the Liberal Democrats, but will not defend her seat at the next election. Instead, she will be contesting the London seat of Finchley & Golders Green. Berger was privately educated. In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.
Wavertree was held by Labour since its creation in 1997
EU referendum: 65% Remain
General election 2017
Luciana Berger (Lab) 34,717 (79.5%) +10.2%
Denise Haddad (Con) 5,251 (12.0%) +2.0%
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem) 2,858 (6.5%) +0.5%
Ted Grant (Green) 598 (1.4%) -3.8%
Adam Heatherington (Ind) 216 (0.5%) New
Adam Heatherington (Ind) 216 (0.5%) New
General election candidates 2019
Paula Barker (Lab)
Catherine Mulhern (Con)
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem)
Kay Inckle (Green)
Adam Heatherington (Brexit)
Mick Coyne (Liberal)
Mick Coyne (Liberal)
Liverpool West Derby
Incumbent: Stephen Twigg (Lab), majority 32,908Born: London, 1966
First elected: 1997, for Enfield Southgate
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Twigg rose to fame when he unseated cabinet minister Michael Portillo in 1997. The Tories retook the seat in 2005 and Twigg was out of Parliament until 2010 when he was selected for the safe Labour seat of Liverpool West Derby. Served on the front benches in both government and opposition, but is not standing this time. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Drunk and incapable
West Derby has been held by Labour since 1964
EU referendum: 50.2% Remain
General election 2017
Stephen Twigg (Lab) 37,371 (82.8%) +7.6%
Paul Richardson (Con) 4,463 (9.9%) +3.3%
Steve Radford (Liberal) 2,150 (4.8%) -0.2%
Paul Parr (Lib Dem) 545 (1.2%) -1.1%
Will Ward (Green) 329 (0.7%) -1.7%
Graham Hughes (Ind) 305 (0.7) New
General election candidates 2019
Ian Byrne (Lab)
Tom Bradley (Con)Steve Radford (Liberal)
Paul Parr (Lib Dem)
Will Ward (Green)
Ray Pearson (Brexit)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Garston & Halewood
Incumbent: Maria Eagle (Lab), majority 32,149Born: East Yorkshire, 1961
First elected: 1997
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Elected to Parliament at the second attempt (she unsuccessfully contested Crosby in 1992). Twin sister of fellow Labour MP Angela Eagle. Served on the front benches in both government and opposition. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Garston & Halewood has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010. It largely follows the boundaries of the previous seat of Liverpool Halewood which was held by Labour between 1983-2010. The new seat absorbed three council wards from neighbouring Knowsley.
EU referendum: 52% Remain
General election 2017
Maria Eagle (Lab) 41,599 (77.7%) +8.6%
Adam Marsden (Con) 9,450 (17.7%) +4.0%
Anna Martin (Lib Dem) 1,723 (3.2%) -1.5%
Lawrence Brown (Green) 750 (1.4%) -2.1%
General election candidates 2019
Maria Eagle (Lab)
Neva Novaky (Con)
Kris Brown (Lib Dem)
Jean-Paul Roberts (Green)
Jake Fraser (Brexit)
Hazel Williams (Liberal)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
NEXT WEEK: Bristol
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Jean-Paul Roberts (Green)
Jake Fraser (Brexit)
Hazel Williams (Liberal)
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
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Thursday, 14 November 2019
IN FOCUS: SHEFFIELD
The Steel City contains five Parliamentary constituencies inside its boundaries. A sixth seat - Penistone and Stocksbridge - overlaps Sheffield and Barnsley, consisting of three council wards from each. At the 2017 general election all six seats returned Labour MPs, but two of whom have since resigned from the party.
Population (2018 est): 582,506
City Council: Labour, since 2011
Composition: Labour (49 cllrs), Lib Dem (26), Green (8), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.1%, Asian 6.8%, black 2.5%, mixed 1.9%, other 0.7%
EU referendum: 51% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Sheffield Central (Paul Blomfield, Lab) majority 27,748
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Penistone & Stocksbridge (Angela Smith, Lib Dem*) majority 1,322
* Elected as a Labour MP
The 2017 general election turned Sheffield 100% red for the first time in history, having finally taken the seat of Hallam. The Lib Dems had held Hallam for twenty years up to that point, before which it was a Conservative seat. Hallam will be one to watch in the forthcoming election, as will Penistone & Stocksbridge. The Lib Dems will look to retake Hallam and the Tories will have their eye on Penistone, although the presence of a Brexit Party candidate could prevent a Tory gain there.
Sheffield City Council was fought over by Labour and the Lib Dems for more than a decade before Labour took decisive control in 2011. The Lib Dems remain the main opposition party and there are no Conservative councillors.
Sheffield is part of another layer of local government, the Sheffield City Region. This is headed by an elected mayor - Labour's Dan Jarvis. Jarvis is a controversial figure, having refused to give up his seat in Parliament when he took on the role. This has led to him being called 'Two Jobs Jarvis'. He will be defending his Barnsley Central seat again at the next election.
The city voted narrowly to Leave in 2016 and its constituencies are divided between strong Leave and strong Remain votes. All the MPs elected in 2017 were Remainers.
Gill Furniss (Lab) 28,193 (67.3%) +10.8%
Michael Naughton (Con) 9,050 (21.6%) +10.6%
Shane Harper (UKIP) 2,645 (6.3%) -15.8%
Simon Clement-Jones (Lib Dem) 1,061 (2.5%) -2.0%
Christine Kubo (Green) 737 (1.8%) -2.5%
Mike Driver (Workers) 137 (0.3%) New
Muzafar Rahman (SDP) 47 (0.1%) New
Sheffield Central
Incumbent: Paul Blomfield (Lab), majority 27,748
Born: Kent, 1953
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge
Sheffield Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983
EU referendum: 68% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Sheffield
General election 2017
Paul Blomfield (Lab) 33,963 (70.9%) +15.9%
Stephanie Roe (Con) 6,215 (13.0%) +1.8%
Natalie Bennett (Green) 3,848 (8.0%) -7.8%
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem) 2,465 (5.1%) -4.5%
Dominic Cook (UKIP) 1,060 (2.2%) -5.2%
Jack Carrington (Yorkshire) 197 (0.4%) New
Rob Moran (Pirate) 91 (0.2%) New
Joe Westnidge (SDP) 38 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Sheffield, 1981
First elected: 2017, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: O'Mara was not expected to win the seat and it was one of the biggest shocks on election night. He suffers from various health problems including cerebral palsy. He didn't make his maiden speech in the Commons until July 2018, more than a year after he was elected. He was the final MP to do so. He was suspended by Labour in October 2017 over misogynistic and homophobic comments, but the party announced in July 2018 that he would be reinstated. However, he resigned from the party days later and clung onto his seat as an independent. He will not stand in the forthcoming election.
Scandals: Online comments, treatment of staff, Twitter hijack, sexual harassment, fraud arrest
Hallam has been held by Labour since 2017, before which it was held by the Lib Dems since 1997. Between 1918 and 1997 the seat was held by the Conservatives.
EU referendum: 66% Remain
General election 2017
Jared O'Mara (Lab) 21,881 (38.4%) +2.6%
Nick Clegg (Lib Dem) 19,756 (34.7%) -5.3%
Ian Walker (Con) 13,561 (23.8%) +10.2%
John Thurley (UKIP) 929 (1.6%) -4.8%
Logan Robin (Green) 823 (1.4%) -1.8%
Steven Winstone (SDP) 70 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lib Dem GAIN
Born: Sheffield, 1987
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Shadow Minister of State for Policing. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Heeley has been held by Labour since 1974
EU referendum: 57% Leave
General election 2017
Louise Haigh (Lab) 26,524 (60.0%) +11.8%
Gordon Gregory (Con) 12,696 (28.7%) +12.6%
Joe Otten (Lib Dem) 2,022 (4.6%) -6.7%
Howard Denby (UKIP) 1,977 (4.5%) -12.9%
Declan Walsh (Green) 943 (2.1%) -4.0%
Jaspreet Oberoi (SDP) 64 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Sheffield, 1950
First elected: 1992
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Elected for Sheffield Attercliffe in 1992, his third attempt to enter Parliament. Suspended from Parliament for seven days in 2003 over the Brazilian male escort scandal. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Brazilian male escort visa, expenses scandal, McDonalds trip
Sheffield South East has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010. Its predecessor seat (Sheffield Attercliffe) was held by Labour from 1935.
EU referendum: 66% Leave, strongest Leave seat in Sheffield
General election 2017
Clive Betts (Lab) 25,520 (58.5%) +7.1%
Lindsey Cawrey (Con) 13,722 (31.5%) +14.1%
Dennise Dawson (UKIP) 2,820 (6.5%) -15.4%
Colin Ross (Lib Dem) 1,432 (3.3%) -2.1%
Ishleen Oberoi (SDP) 102 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Grimsby, 1961
First elected: 2005, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain, abstained in the vote on triggering Article 50
Notes: She represented Sheffield Hillsborough from 2005 until it was abolished in the 2010 boundary changes, after which she switched to the new seat of Penistone & Stocksbridge. A vocal opponent of Jeremy Corbyn, she endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election. In February 2019 she quit Labour along with six other MPs and was a founder member of Change UK. In September she joined the Liberal Democrats, but will contest Altrincham & Sale West in Cheshire at the next election.
Scandals: Expenses scandal, funny tinge
Penistone & Stocksbridge was held by Labour from its creation in 2010. The seat of Penistone on which its boundaries are similar was held by Labour from 1935 to its abolition in 1983.
EU referendum: 61% Leave
General election 2017
Angela Smith (Lab) 22,807 (45.8%) +3.8%
Nicola Wilson (Con) 21,485 (43.2%) +15.5%
John Booker (UKIP) 3,453 (6.9%) -16.0%
Penny Baker (Lib Dem) 2,042 (4.1%) - 2.2%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
NEXT WEEK: Liverpool
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City Council: Labour, since 2011
Composition: Labour (49 cllrs), Lib Dem (26), Green (8), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.1%, Asian 6.8%, black 2.5%, mixed 1.9%, other 0.7%
EU referendum: 51% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Sheffield Central (Paul Blomfield, Lab) majority 27,748
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Penistone & Stocksbridge (Angela Smith, Lib Dem*) majority 1,322
* Elected as a Labour MP
The 2017 general election turned Sheffield 100% red for the first time in history, having finally taken the seat of Hallam. The Lib Dems had held Hallam for twenty years up to that point, before which it was a Conservative seat. Hallam will be one to watch in the forthcoming election, as will Penistone & Stocksbridge. The Lib Dems will look to retake Hallam and the Tories will have their eye on Penistone, although the presence of a Brexit Party candidate could prevent a Tory gain there.
Sheffield City Council was fought over by Labour and the Lib Dems for more than a decade before Labour took decisive control in 2011. The Lib Dems remain the main opposition party and there are no Conservative councillors.
Sheffield is part of another layer of local government, the Sheffield City Region. This is headed by an elected mayor - Labour's Dan Jarvis. Jarvis is a controversial figure, having refused to give up his seat in Parliament when he took on the role. This has led to him being called 'Two Jobs Jarvis'. He will be defending his Barnsley Central seat again at the next election.
The city voted narrowly to Leave in 2016 and its constituencies are divided between strong Leave and strong Remain votes. All the MPs elected in 2017 were Remainers.
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
Incumbent: Gill Furniss (Lab), majority 19,143
Born: Sheffield, 1957
First elected: 2016 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Furniss is the widow of the previous MP Harry Harpham
Brightside & Hillsborough has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010
EU referendum: 60% Leave
General election 2017
Michael Naughton (Con) 9,050 (21.6%) +10.6%
Shane Harper (UKIP) 2,645 (6.3%) -15.8%
Simon Clement-Jones (Lib Dem) 1,061 (2.5%) -2.0%
Christine Kubo (Green) 737 (1.8%) -2.5%
Mike Driver (Workers) 137 (0.3%) New
Muzafar Rahman (SDP) 47 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Sheffield Central
Born: Kent, 1953
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge
Sheffield Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983
EU referendum: 68% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Sheffield
General election 2017
Paul Blomfield (Lab) 33,963 (70.9%) +15.9%
Stephanie Roe (Con) 6,215 (13.0%) +1.8%
Natalie Bennett (Green) 3,848 (8.0%) -7.8%
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem) 2,465 (5.1%) -4.5%
Dominic Cook (UKIP) 1,060 (2.2%) -5.2%
Jack Carrington (Yorkshire) 197 (0.4%) New
Rob Moran (Pirate) 91 (0.2%) New
Joe Westnidge (SDP) 38 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Sheffield Hallam
Incumbent: Jared O'Mara (Ind), majority 2,125Born: Sheffield, 1981
First elected: 2017, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: O'Mara was not expected to win the seat and it was one of the biggest shocks on election night. He suffers from various health problems including cerebral palsy. He didn't make his maiden speech in the Commons until July 2018, more than a year after he was elected. He was the final MP to do so. He was suspended by Labour in October 2017 over misogynistic and homophobic comments, but the party announced in July 2018 that he would be reinstated. However, he resigned from the party days later and clung onto his seat as an independent. He will not stand in the forthcoming election.
Scandals: Online comments, treatment of staff, Twitter hijack, sexual harassment, fraud arrest
Hallam has been held by Labour since 2017, before which it was held by the Lib Dems since 1997. Between 1918 and 1997 the seat was held by the Conservatives.
EU referendum: 66% Remain
General election 2017
Jared O'Mara (Lab) 21,881 (38.4%) +2.6%
Nick Clegg (Lib Dem) 19,756 (34.7%) -5.3%
Ian Walker (Con) 13,561 (23.8%) +10.2%
John Thurley (UKIP) 929 (1.6%) -4.8%
Logan Robin (Green) 823 (1.4%) -1.8%
Steven Winstone (SDP) 70 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lib Dem GAIN
Sheffield Heeley
Incumbent: Louise Haigh (Lab), majority 13,828Born: Sheffield, 1987
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Shadow Minister of State for Policing. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Heeley has been held by Labour since 1974
EU referendum: 57% Leave
General election 2017
Louise Haigh (Lab) 26,524 (60.0%) +11.8%
Gordon Gregory (Con) 12,696 (28.7%) +12.6%
Joe Otten (Lib Dem) 2,022 (4.6%) -6.7%
Howard Denby (UKIP) 1,977 (4.5%) -12.9%
Declan Walsh (Green) 943 (2.1%) -4.0%
Jaspreet Oberoi (SDP) 64 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Sheffield South East
Incumbent: Clive Betts (Lab), majority 11,798Born: Sheffield, 1950
First elected: 1992
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Elected for Sheffield Attercliffe in 1992, his third attempt to enter Parliament. Suspended from Parliament for seven days in 2003 over the Brazilian male escort scandal. Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals: Brazilian male escort visa, expenses scandal, McDonalds trip
Sheffield South East has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010. Its predecessor seat (Sheffield Attercliffe) was held by Labour from 1935.
EU referendum: 66% Leave, strongest Leave seat in Sheffield
General election 2017
Clive Betts (Lab) 25,520 (58.5%) +7.1%
Lindsey Cawrey (Con) 13,722 (31.5%) +14.1%
Dennise Dawson (UKIP) 2,820 (6.5%) -15.4%
Colin Ross (Lib Dem) 1,432 (3.3%) -2.1%
Ishleen Oberoi (SDP) 102 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Incumbent: Angela Smith (Lib Dem), majority 1,322Born: Grimsby, 1961
First elected: 2005, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain: Remain, abstained in the vote on triggering Article 50
Notes: She represented Sheffield Hillsborough from 2005 until it was abolished in the 2010 boundary changes, after which she switched to the new seat of Penistone & Stocksbridge. A vocal opponent of Jeremy Corbyn, she endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election. In February 2019 she quit Labour along with six other MPs and was a founder member of Change UK. In September she joined the Liberal Democrats, but will contest Altrincham & Sale West in Cheshire at the next election.
Scandals: Expenses scandal, funny tinge
Penistone & Stocksbridge was held by Labour from its creation in 2010. The seat of Penistone on which its boundaries are similar was held by Labour from 1935 to its abolition in 1983.
EU referendum: 61% Leave
General election 2017
Angela Smith (Lab) 22,807 (45.8%) +3.8%
Nicola Wilson (Con) 21,485 (43.2%) +15.5%
John Booker (UKIP) 3,453 (6.9%) -16.0%
Penny Baker (Lib Dem) 2,042 (4.1%) - 2.2%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
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Thursday, 7 November 2019
IN FOCUS: GLASGOW
Glasgow is Scotland's largest city and the third most populated city in the UK, after London and Birmingham. It is currently divided into seven constituencies for elections to the UK Parliament and nine constituencies for elections to the Scottish Parliament. All Glasgow seats for the Scottish Parliament are currently held by the SNP, the map below shows the Westminster constituencies.
Population (2018 est): 626,410
City Council: No overall control, since 2017
Composition: SNP (38 cllrs), Labour (30), Conservatives (8), Green (7), Ind (2)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.4%, Asian 8.0%, black 2.5%, mixed 0.5%, Arab 0.4%, other 0.2%
Scottish independence referendum: 53.5% Yes
EU referendum: 66.6% Remain
Largest UK Parliamentary majority: Glasgow North West (Carol Monaghan, SNP) majority 2,561
Smallest UK Parliamentary majority: Glasgow South West (Chris Stephens, SNP) majority 60
Glasgow was until fairly recently a solid Labour city. Before the SNP post-referendum surge of 2015 Labour held every UK Parliamentary seat here. After that election they held none. They also ran the council until 2017, when for the first time since 1980 they lost overall control. The fall in Labour support here mirrored the party's decline across Scotland, due in part to the rise of the SNP, but in Glasgow it also haemorrhaged support to both the Tories and the Greens. The SNP has never controlled Glasgow City Council, but that could well change after the next local elections in 2022.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, once again Labour were in complete control and held every seat up until 2007. In that election they lost one seat to the SNP. Four years later they lost a further four seats and in 2016 they were completely wiped out by the SNP. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has represented the Glasgow Govan constituency since 2007.
Glasgow voted Yes to Scottish independence in 2014 and also voted heavily to Remain in the EU two years later. All city MPs voted to block the triggering of Article 50, at which time all seven were SNP. Labour won one seat back in 2017, albeit with a tiny majority. Two more seats are among the most marginal in the UK, with the SNP clinging on in 2017 with majorities of just 60 and 75. However, with the current state of Labour in Scotland they are not expected to make any gains here next month.
Please note that the following are Westminster constituencies.
Born: Lanark, 1982
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow Central has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since 1950
EU referendum: 71% Remain
General election 2017
Alison Thewliss (SNP) 16,096 (44.7%) -7.8%
Faten Hameed (Lab) 13,829 (38.4%) +5.4%
Charlotte Fairbanks (Con) 5,014 (13.9%) +7.9%
Isabel Nelson (Lib Dem) 1,045 (2.9%) +1.3%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Born: Glasgow, 1990
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Glasgow East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP three times since. It is one of the tightest marginals in the UK.
EU referendum: 56% Remain
General election 2017
David Linden (SNP) 14,024 (38.8%) -18.1%
Kate Watson (Lab) 13,949 (38.6%) +6.2%
Thomas Kerr (Con) 6,816 (18.8%) +12.8%
Matthew Clark (Lib Dem) 576 (1.6%) +0.8%
John Ferguson (UKIP) 502 (1.4%) -1.2%
Karin Finegan (Ind) 158 (0.4%) New
Steven Marshall (SDP) 148 0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Born: Edinburgh, 1980
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Also a member of Plaid Cymru
Glasgow North has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005
EU referendum: 78% Remain
General election 2017
Patrick Grady (SNP) 12,597 (37.6%) -15.5%
Pam Duncan-Glancy (Lab) 11,537 (34.5%) +6.5%
Stuart Cullen (Con) 4,935 (14.7%) +6.9%
Patrick Harvie (Green) 3,251 (9.7%) +3.5%
Calum Shepherd (Lib Dem) 1,153 (3.4%) +0.7%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Born: Glasgow, 1989
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: A former army reservist, one of three Labour MPs to have served in HM Armed Forces.
Glasgow North East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP twice since.
EU referendum: 59% Remain
General election 2017
Paul Sweeney (Lab) 13,637 (42.9%) +9.2%
Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 13,395 (42.2%) -15.9%
Jack Wylie (Con) 4,106 (12.9%) +8.2%
Daniel Donaldson (Lib Dem) 637 (2.0%) +1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP GAIN
Born: Glasgow, 1972
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow North West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 69% Remain
General election 2017
Carol Monaghan (SNP) 16,508 (42.5%) -12.0%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 13,947 (35.9%) +5.0%
Christopher Land (Con) 7,002 (18.0%) +9.6%
James Speirs (Lib Dem) 1,387 (3.6%) +0.8%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Born: Glasgow, 1986
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: LGBT activist
Glasgow South has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 72% Remain
General election 2017
Stewart McDonald (SNP) 18,312 (41.1%) -13.8%
Eileen Dinning (Lab) 16,285 (36.6%) +6.8%
Taylor Muir (Con) 8,506 (19.1%) +9.4%
Ewan Hoyle (Lib Dem) 1,447 (3.2%) +1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Born: Glasgow, 1973
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow South West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 59% Remain
General election 2017
Chris Stephens (SNP) 14,386 (40.7%) -16.5%
Matt Kerr (Lab) 14,326 (40.5%) +7.7%
Thomas Haddow (Con) 5,524 (15.6%) +10.6%
Ben Denton-Cardew (Lib Dem) 661 (1.9%) +0.9%
Sarah Hemy (UKIP) 481 (1.4%) -1.0%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
NEXT WEEK: Sheffield
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City Council: No overall control, since 2017
Composition: SNP (38 cllrs), Labour (30), Conservatives (8), Green (7), Ind (2)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 88.4%, Asian 8.0%, black 2.5%, mixed 0.5%, Arab 0.4%, other 0.2%
Scottish independence referendum: 53.5% Yes
EU referendum: 66.6% Remain
Largest UK Parliamentary majority: Glasgow North West (Carol Monaghan, SNP) majority 2,561
Smallest UK Parliamentary majority: Glasgow South West (Chris Stephens, SNP) majority 60
Glasgow was until fairly recently a solid Labour city. Before the SNP post-referendum surge of 2015 Labour held every UK Parliamentary seat here. After that election they held none. They also ran the council until 2017, when for the first time since 1980 they lost overall control. The fall in Labour support here mirrored the party's decline across Scotland, due in part to the rise of the SNP, but in Glasgow it also haemorrhaged support to both the Tories and the Greens. The SNP has never controlled Glasgow City Council, but that could well change after the next local elections in 2022.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, once again Labour were in complete control and held every seat up until 2007. In that election they lost one seat to the SNP. Four years later they lost a further four seats and in 2016 they were completely wiped out by the SNP. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has represented the Glasgow Govan constituency since 2007.
Glasgow voted Yes to Scottish independence in 2014 and also voted heavily to Remain in the EU two years later. All city MPs voted to block the triggering of Article 50, at which time all seven were SNP. Labour won one seat back in 2017, albeit with a tiny majority. Two more seats are among the most marginal in the UK, with the SNP clinging on in 2017 with majorities of just 60 and 75. However, with the current state of Labour in Scotland they are not expected to make any gains here next month.
Please note that the following are Westminster constituencies.
Glasgow Central
Incumbent: Alison Thewliss (SNP), majority 2,267Born: Lanark, 1982
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow Central has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since 1950
EU referendum: 71% Remain
General election 2017
Alison Thewliss (SNP) 16,096 (44.7%) -7.8%
Faten Hameed (Lab) 13,829 (38.4%) +5.4%
Charlotte Fairbanks (Con) 5,014 (13.9%) +7.9%
Isabel Nelson (Lib Dem) 1,045 (2.9%) +1.3%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Glasgow East
Incumbent: David Linden (SNP), majority 75Born: Glasgow, 1990
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Glasgow East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP three times since. It is one of the tightest marginals in the UK.
EU referendum: 56% Remain
General election 2017
David Linden (SNP) 14,024 (38.8%) -18.1%
Kate Watson (Lab) 13,949 (38.6%) +6.2%
Thomas Kerr (Con) 6,816 (18.8%) +12.8%
Matthew Clark (Lib Dem) 576 (1.6%) +0.8%
John Ferguson (UKIP) 502 (1.4%) -1.2%
Karin Finegan (Ind) 158 (0.4%) New
Steven Marshall (SDP) 148 0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Glasgow North
Incumbent: Patrick Grady (SNP), majority 1,060Born: Edinburgh, 1980
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Also a member of Plaid Cymru
Glasgow North has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005
EU referendum: 78% Remain
General election 2017
Patrick Grady (SNP) 12,597 (37.6%) -15.5%
Pam Duncan-Glancy (Lab) 11,537 (34.5%) +6.5%
Stuart Cullen (Con) 4,935 (14.7%) +6.9%
Patrick Harvie (Green) 3,251 (9.7%) +3.5%
Calum Shepherd (Lib Dem) 1,153 (3.4%) +0.7%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Glasgow North East
Incumbent: Paul Sweeney (Lab), majority 242Born: Glasgow, 1989
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: A former army reservist, one of three Labour MPs to have served in HM Armed Forces.
Glasgow North East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP twice since.
EU referendum: 59% Remain
General election 2017
Paul Sweeney (Lab) 13,637 (42.9%) +9.2%
Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 13,395 (42.2%) -15.9%
Jack Wylie (Con) 4,106 (12.9%) +8.2%
Daniel Donaldson (Lib Dem) 637 (2.0%) +1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP GAIN
Glasgow North West
Incumbent: Carol Monaghan (SNP), majority 2,561Born: Glasgow, 1972
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow North West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 69% Remain
General election 2017
Carol Monaghan (SNP) 16,508 (42.5%) -12.0%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 13,947 (35.9%) +5.0%
Christopher Land (Con) 7,002 (18.0%) +9.6%
James Speirs (Lib Dem) 1,387 (3.6%) +0.8%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Glasgow South
Incumbent: Stewart McDonald (SNP), majority 2,027Born: Glasgow, 1986
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: LGBT activist
Glasgow South has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 72% Remain
General election 2017
Stewart McDonald (SNP) 18,312 (41.1%) -13.8%
Eileen Dinning (Lab) 16,285 (36.6%) +6.8%
Taylor Muir (Con) 8,506 (19.1%) +9.4%
Ewan Hoyle (Lib Dem) 1,447 (3.2%) +1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
Glasgow South West
Incumbent: Chris Stephens (SNP), majority 60Born: Glasgow, 1973
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Glasgow South West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.
EU referendum: 59% Remain
General election 2017
Chris Stephens (SNP) 14,386 (40.7%) -16.5%
Matt Kerr (Lab) 14,326 (40.5%) +7.7%
Thomas Haddow (Con) 5,524 (15.6%) +10.6%
Ben Denton-Cardew (Lib Dem) 661 (1.9%) +0.9%
Sarah Hemy (UKIP) 481 (1.4%) -1.0%
BTLP general election prediction: SNP HOLD
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Thursday, 31 October 2019
IN FOCUS: MANCHESTER
There are five Parliamentary seats that cover the city of Manchester. Two of these seats cross the city boundaries and are partially composed of neighbouring council authorities. These are Blackley & Broughton (includes part of Trafford) and Wythenshawe & Sale East (includes part of Salford).
Population (2018 est): 547,627
City Council: Labour, since 1973 (inception)
Composition: Labour (92 cllrs), Lib Dem (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 66.7%, Asian 14.4%, black 8.6%, mixed 4.7%, Chinese 2.7%, Arab 1.9%, other 1.2%
EU referendum: 60.4% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Manchester Gorton (Afzal Khan, Lab) majority 31,730
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Wythenshawe & Sale East (Mike Kane, Lab) majority 14,944
Manchester is a solid Labour city and there has not been a single Conservative councillor elected here since 2010. Following the 2014 and 2015 local elections Labour held all 96 seats on the council. The Lib Dems were a significant presence here until 2011, after which they lost most of their seats over their involvement in the coalition government. At the next general election they also lost Manchester Withington, making the city all red again for the first time since 2001.
The city has a significant Muslim population, 15.8% according to the 2011 census. They are represented disproportionately in the council chamber and make up one in five Labour councillors.
In the 2017 general election Conservative candidates came runners-up in three of Manchester's seats, but won't be expecting to make any gains here next time. The Lib Dems will be hoping to surge back into contention, taking advantage of Manchester's strong Remain sympathies. However, they are too far behind now to retake Withington from Labour, a seat that in any case is represented by ardent Labour Remainer Jeff Smith.
With the exception of Afzal Khan, all of Manchester's MPs were born in the city. All but one (Graham Stringer) are Remainers. In the 2016 leadership election three MPs backed Owen Smith, while two did not publicly endorse either candidate.
Born: Manchester, 1950
First elected: 1997 (for Manchester Blackley)
Leave/Remain: Leave
Notes: Led Manchester City Council between 1984 and 1996. Did not publicly endorse either candidate in the 2016 leadership challenge. Attempts were made to deselect him in 2018 over his pro-Brexit stance, but the vote failed to carry.
Blackley & Broughton has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010, prior to that the seat of Manchester Blackley was held by Labour since 1964. While most of the current seat falls within the city boundaries, it also comprises two wards from neighbouring Salford.
EU referendum: 50.04% Leave (only Leave seat in Manchester)
General election 2017
Graham Stringer (Lab) 28,258 (70.5%) +8.6%
David Goss (Con) 8,657 (21.6%) +6.6%
Martin Power (UKIP) 1,825 (4.6%) -12.0%
Richard Gadsden (Lib Dem) 737 (1.8%) -0.6%
David Jones (Green) 462 (1.2%) -3.1%
Abi Ajoku (Christian) 174 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Manchester, 1974
First elected: 2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Manchester's first female MP. Endorsed Owen Smith in 2016 leadership challenge.
Manchester Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974
EU referendum: 64% Remain
General election 2017
Lucy Powell (Lab) 38,490 (77.4%) +16.1%
Xingang Wang (Con) 7,045 (14.2%) +0.6%
John Bridges (Lib Dem) 1,678 (3.4%) -0.7%
Kalvin Chapman (UKIP) 1,469 (3.0%) -8.1%
Rachael Shah (Green) 846 (1.7%) -6.8%
Neil Blackburn (Pirate) 192 (0.4%) -0.4%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Pakistan, 1958
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Scandals: Anti-Semitism
Notes: Came to the UK aged 11. Qualified solicitor. Awarded a CBE in 2012 for race relations work. Manchester's first Muslim MP.
Manchester Gorton has been held by Labour since 1935
EU referendum: 62% Remain
General election 2017
Afzal Khan (Lab) 35,085 (76.3%) +9.3%
Shaden Jaradat (Con) 3,355 (7.3%) -2.4%
George Galloway (Ind) 2,615 (5.7%) New
Jackie Pearcey (Lib Dem) 2,597 (5.7%) +1.4%
Jess Mayo (Green) 1,038 (2.3%) -7.5%
Phil Eckersley (UKIP) 952 (2.1%) -6.1%
Kemi Abidogun (Christian) 233 (0.5%) New
David Hopkins (Ind) 51 (0.1%) New
Peter Clifford (Communist) 27 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Manchester, 1963
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Manchester Withington has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems since 2005
EU referendum: 75% Remain (strongest Remain seat in Manchester)
General election 2017
Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Manchester, 1969
First elected: 2014 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Wythenshawe & Sale East has been held by Labour since its creation in 1997. Most of the current boundaries lie within the city, but it includes three council wards from neighbouring Trafford.
EU referendum: 50.35% Remain
General election 2017
Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
NEXT WEEK: Glasgow
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City Council: Labour, since 1973 (inception)
Composition: Labour (92 cllrs), Lib Dem (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 66.7%, Asian 14.4%, black 8.6%, mixed 4.7%, Chinese 2.7%, Arab 1.9%, other 1.2%
EU referendum: 60.4% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority: Manchester Gorton (Afzal Khan, Lab) majority 31,730
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Wythenshawe & Sale East (Mike Kane, Lab) majority 14,944
Manchester is a solid Labour city and there has not been a single Conservative councillor elected here since 2010. Following the 2014 and 2015 local elections Labour held all 96 seats on the council. The Lib Dems were a significant presence here until 2011, after which they lost most of their seats over their involvement in the coalition government. At the next general election they also lost Manchester Withington, making the city all red again for the first time since 2001.
The city has a significant Muslim population, 15.8% according to the 2011 census. They are represented disproportionately in the council chamber and make up one in five Labour councillors.
In the 2017 general election Conservative candidates came runners-up in three of Manchester's seats, but won't be expecting to make any gains here next time. The Lib Dems will be hoping to surge back into contention, taking advantage of Manchester's strong Remain sympathies. However, they are too far behind now to retake Withington from Labour, a seat that in any case is represented by ardent Labour Remainer Jeff Smith.
With the exception of Afzal Khan, all of Manchester's MPs were born in the city. All but one (Graham Stringer) are Remainers. In the 2016 leadership election three MPs backed Owen Smith, while two did not publicly endorse either candidate.
Blackley & Broughton
Incumbent: Graham Stringer (Lab), majority 19,601Born: Manchester, 1950
First elected: 1997 (for Manchester Blackley)
Leave/Remain: Leave
Notes: Led Manchester City Council between 1984 and 1996. Did not publicly endorse either candidate in the 2016 leadership challenge. Attempts were made to deselect him in 2018 over his pro-Brexit stance, but the vote failed to carry.
Blackley & Broughton has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010, prior to that the seat of Manchester Blackley was held by Labour since 1964. While most of the current seat falls within the city boundaries, it also comprises two wards from neighbouring Salford.
EU referendum: 50.04% Leave (only Leave seat in Manchester)
General election 2017
Graham Stringer (Lab) 28,258 (70.5%) +8.6%
David Goss (Con) 8,657 (21.6%) +6.6%
Martin Power (UKIP) 1,825 (4.6%) -12.0%
Richard Gadsden (Lib Dem) 737 (1.8%) -0.6%
David Jones (Green) 462 (1.2%) -3.1%
Abi Ajoku (Christian) 174 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Manchester Central
Incumbent: Lucy Powell (Lab), majority 31,445Born: Manchester, 1974
First elected: 2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Manchester's first female MP. Endorsed Owen Smith in 2016 leadership challenge.
Manchester Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974
EU referendum: 64% Remain
General election 2017
Lucy Powell (Lab) 38,490 (77.4%) +16.1%
Xingang Wang (Con) 7,045 (14.2%) +0.6%
John Bridges (Lib Dem) 1,678 (3.4%) -0.7%
Kalvin Chapman (UKIP) 1,469 (3.0%) -8.1%
Rachael Shah (Green) 846 (1.7%) -6.8%
Neil Blackburn (Pirate) 192 (0.4%) -0.4%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Manchester Gorton
Incumbent: Afzal Khan (Lab), majority 31,730Born: Pakistan, 1958
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Scandals: Anti-Semitism
Notes: Came to the UK aged 11. Qualified solicitor. Awarded a CBE in 2012 for race relations work. Manchester's first Muslim MP.
Manchester Gorton has been held by Labour since 1935
EU referendum: 62% Remain
General election 2017
Afzal Khan (Lab) 35,085 (76.3%) +9.3%
Shaden Jaradat (Con) 3,355 (7.3%) -2.4%
George Galloway (Ind) 2,615 (5.7%) New
Jackie Pearcey (Lib Dem) 2,597 (5.7%) +1.4%
Jess Mayo (Green) 1,038 (2.3%) -7.5%
Phil Eckersley (UKIP) 952 (2.1%) -6.1%
Kemi Abidogun (Christian) 233 (0.5%) New
David Hopkins (Ind) 51 (0.1%) New
Peter Clifford (Communist) 27 (0.1%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Manchester Withington
Incumbent: Jeff Smith (Lab), majority 29,875Born: Manchester, 1963
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Manchester Withington has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems since 2005
EU referendum: 75% Remain (strongest Remain seat in Manchester)
General election 2017
Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Wythenshawe & Sale East
Incumbent: Mike Kane (Lab), majority 14,944Born: Manchester, 1969
First elected: 2014 (by-election)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes: Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Wythenshawe & Sale East has been held by Labour since its creation in 1997. Most of the current boundaries lie within the city, but it includes three council wards from neighbouring Trafford.
EU referendum: 50.35% Remain
General election 2017
Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
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Thursday, 24 October 2019
IN FOCUS: BIRMINGHAM
This is a new weekly feature appearing every Thursday. We'll be looking at a specific mainland city each week and we begin with Britain's second city. 'Brum' is comprised of ten Parliamentary constituencies, as shown below.
Population (2018 est): 1,141,374
City Council: Labour, since 2012
Composition: Labour (67 cllrs), Conservative (25), Lib Dem (8), Green (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 57.9%, Asian 26.6%, black 8.9%, mixed 4.4%, other 1.2%, Arab 1.0%
EU referendum: 50.4% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Hall Green (Roger Godsiff, Lab) majority 33,944
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Northfield (Richard Burden, Lab) majority 4,667
Birmingham was once a major battleground between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Tories have not won a seat here (with the exception of Sutton Coldfield) since 1992. The Lib Dems were an electoral force prior to the 2015 general election. They were heavily punished in that election for both local and national coalitions with the Tories, losing their Yardley seat to Labour, a seat they had held since 2005. The Lib Dems were the junior partner in a coalition with the Tories that ran Birmingham City Council between 2004 and 2012.
In the 2017 general election the top two places in all ten seats were taken by Labour and Conservative candidates. The Labour share of the vote was up significantly across all ten seats. This rise was due in small part to the continuing decline in the Lib Dem vote, but primarily it came from the electoral collapse of UKIP following the EU referendum. Contrary to popular opinion, UKIP (and the Brexit Party) draw most of their support from working class communities that would otherwise normally vote Labour.
Birmingham has the largest Muslim population in the UK outside London (21.8% according to the 2011 census) and electoral fraud has been evident. Following the 2004 local elections the results in two council wards were annulled and the six winning Labour candidates removed from office. The six men were: Muhammed Afzal, Mohammed Islam, Mohammed Kazi (Aston ward) and Shafaq Ahmed, Shah Jahan and Ayaz Khan (Bordesley Green ward).
Only three of Birmingham's ten MPs were born in the city - Preet Gill, Shabana Mahmood and Jess Phillips. In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, all of the then Birmingham MPs publicly backed Owen Smith with the exception of Gisela Stuart (Edgbaston), who refused to back him unless he dropped his demand for a second EU referendum.
Incumbent: Preet Gill (Lab), majority 6,917
Born: Birmingham, 1972
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Britain's first female Sikh MP.
Edgbaston has been held by Labour since 1997.
EU referendum: 53% Remain
General election 2017
Preet Gill (Lab) 24,124 (55.3%) +10.5%
Caroline Squire (Con) 17,207 (39.5%) +1.2%
Colin Green (Lib Dem) 1,564 (3.6%) +0.7%
Alice Kiff (Green) 562 (1.3%) -2.0%
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) 155 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Jack Dromey (Lab) 21,571 (58.0%) +12.3%
Robert Alden (Con) 14,286 (38.4%) +7.6%
Ann Holtom (Lib Dem) 750 (2.0%) -0.8%
James Lovatt (Green) 610 (1.6%) -1.1%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
Roger Godsiff (Lab) 42,143 (77.6%) +17.8%
Reena Ranger (Con) 8,199 (15.1%) -2.6%
Jerry Evans (Lib Dems) 3,137 (5.8%) -5.8%
Patrick Cox (Green) 831 (1.5%) -3.1%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Shabana Mahmood (Lab) 34,166 (82.7%) +9.1%
Andrew Browning (Con) 5,452 (13.2%) +0.5%
Lee Dargue (Lib Dem) 1,156 (2.8%) -1.0%
Kefentse Dennis (Green) 533 (1.3%) -2.9%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Richard Burden (Lab) 23,596 (53.2%) +11.6%
Meg Powell-Chandler (Con) 18,929 (42.7%) +7.0%
Roger Harmer (Lib Dem) 959 (2.2%) -1.0%
Eleanor Masters (Green) 864 (1.9%) -0.8%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
Khalid Mahmood (Lab) 30,109 (68.1%) +10.7%
Charlotte Hodivala (Con) 11,726 (26.5%) +5.0%
Harjun Singh (Lib Dem) 1,080 (2.4%) -2.4%
Shangara Bhatoe (Soc Lab) 592 1.3% New
Steve McCabe 30,836 (62.9%) +15.3%
Sophie Shrubsole (Con) 15,629 (31.9%) +2.9%
Dave Radcliffe (Lib Dem) 1,644 (3.4%) -2.2%
Julien Pritchard 876 (1.8%) -3.3%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Jess Phillips (Lab) 25,398 (57.1%) +15.4%
Mohammed Afzal (Con) 8,824 (19.8%) +5.8%
John Hemming (Lib Dem) 7,984 (17.9%) -7.7%
Paul Clayton (UKIP) 1,916 (4.3%) -11.8%
Christopher Garghan (Green) 280 (0.6%) -1.1%
Abu Nowshed (Ind) 100 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Sutton Coldfield is the only Birmingham seat not to carry the city's name. This is because it is a town in its own right and retained that status despite its incorporation into Birmingham in 1974.
Andrew Mitchell (Con) 32,224 (61.0%) +6.3%
Rob Pocock (Lab) 16,885 (31.9%) +9.6%
Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem) 2,302 (4.4%) -0.8%
David Ratcliff (Green) 965 (1.8%) -1.0%
Hannah Sophia (Ind) 482 (0.9%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Con HOLD
City Council: Labour, since 2012
Composition: Labour (67 cllrs), Conservative (25), Lib Dem (8), Green (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011): white 57.9%, Asian 26.6%, black 8.9%, mixed 4.4%, other 1.2%, Arab 1.0%
EU referendum: 50.4% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority: Hall Green (Roger Godsiff, Lab) majority 33,944
Smallest Parliamentary majority: Northfield (Richard Burden, Lab) majority 4,667
Birmingham was once a major battleground between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Tories have not won a seat here (with the exception of Sutton Coldfield) since 1992. The Lib Dems were an electoral force prior to the 2015 general election. They were heavily punished in that election for both local and national coalitions with the Tories, losing their Yardley seat to Labour, a seat they had held since 2005. The Lib Dems were the junior partner in a coalition with the Tories that ran Birmingham City Council between 2004 and 2012.
In the 2017 general election the top two places in all ten seats were taken by Labour and Conservative candidates. The Labour share of the vote was up significantly across all ten seats. This rise was due in small part to the continuing decline in the Lib Dem vote, but primarily it came from the electoral collapse of UKIP following the EU referendum. Contrary to popular opinion, UKIP (and the Brexit Party) draw most of their support from working class communities that would otherwise normally vote Labour.
Birmingham has the largest Muslim population in the UK outside London (21.8% according to the 2011 census) and electoral fraud has been evident. Following the 2004 local elections the results in two council wards were annulled and the six winning Labour candidates removed from office. The six men were: Muhammed Afzal, Mohammed Islam, Mohammed Kazi (Aston ward) and Shafaq Ahmed, Shah Jahan and Ayaz Khan (Bordesley Green ward).
Only three of Birmingham's ten MPs were born in the city - Preet Gill, Shabana Mahmood and Jess Phillips. In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, all of the then Birmingham MPs publicly backed Owen Smith with the exception of Gisela Stuart (Edgbaston), who refused to back him unless he dropped his demand for a second EU referendum.
Birmingham Edgbaston
Born: Birmingham, 1972
First elected: 2017
Leave/Remain: Remain
Notes: Britain's first female Sikh MP.
Edgbaston has been held by Labour since 1997.
EU referendum: 53% Remain
General election 2017
Preet Gill (Lab) 24,124 (55.3%) +10.5%
Caroline Squire (Con) 17,207 (39.5%) +1.2%
Colin Green (Lib Dem) 1,564 (3.6%) +0.7%
Alice Kiff (Green) 562 (1.3%) -2.0%
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) 155 (0.4%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Erdington
Incumbent: Jack Dromey (Lab), majority 7,285
Born: Middlesex, 1948
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Cash for peerages, illegal donations, failing to declare income, Paedophile Information Exchange
Notes: Married to former Labour minister/deputy leader/acting leader Harriet Harman since 1982. Their children were sent to private schools. Before he became an MP he was Labour's national treasurer and sat on the National Executive Committee.
Erdington has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974.
EU referendum: 63% Leave (strongest Leave vote in Birmingham)
Born: Middlesex, 1948
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Cash for peerages, illegal donations, failing to declare income, Paedophile Information Exchange
Notes: Married to former Labour minister/deputy leader/acting leader Harriet Harman since 1982. Their children were sent to private schools. Before he became an MP he was Labour's national treasurer and sat on the National Executive Committee.
Erdington has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974.
EU referendum: 63% Leave (strongest Leave vote in Birmingham)
General election 2017
Robert Alden (Con) 14,286 (38.4%) +7.6%
Ann Holtom (Lib Dem) 750 (2.0%) -0.8%
James Lovatt (Green) 610 (1.6%) -1.1%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
Birmingham Hall Green
Incumbent: Roger Godsiff (Lab), majority 33,944
Born: London, 1946 (oldest Birmingham MP)
First elected: 1992 (for Birmingham Small Heath)
Leave/Remain: Leave, but abstained in the vote to trigger Article 50 in respect of the 66% Remain vote in his constituency
Scandals: Expenses scandal, Muslim LGBT school protests
Notes: Godsiff's constituency has been abolished twice due to boundary changes - first in 1997, after which he represented Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath, and again in 2010. Since then he has represented Birmingham Hall Green, a seat that had previously been held by Labour's Steve McCabe. As a result of the boundary changes McCabe switched to Birmingham Selly Oak. Godsiff is currently facing a Corbynite trigger ballot and will have to fight for reselection at the next election.
Hall Green has been held by Labour since 1997.
EU referendum: 66% Remain (strongest Remain vote in Birmingham)
General election 2017
Born: London, 1946 (oldest Birmingham MP)
First elected: 1992 (for Birmingham Small Heath)
Leave/Remain: Leave, but abstained in the vote to trigger Article 50 in respect of the 66% Remain vote in his constituency
Scandals: Expenses scandal, Muslim LGBT school protests
Notes: Godsiff's constituency has been abolished twice due to boundary changes - first in 1997, after which he represented Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath, and again in 2010. Since then he has represented Birmingham Hall Green, a seat that had previously been held by Labour's Steve McCabe. As a result of the boundary changes McCabe switched to Birmingham Selly Oak. Godsiff is currently facing a Corbynite trigger ballot and will have to fight for reselection at the next election.
Hall Green has been held by Labour since 1997.
EU referendum: 66% Remain (strongest Remain vote in Birmingham)
General election 2017
Roger Godsiff (Lab) 42,143 (77.6%) +17.8%
Reena Ranger (Con) 8,199 (15.1%) -2.6%
Jerry Evans (Lib Dems) 3,137 (5.8%) -5.8%
Patrick Cox (Green) 831 (1.5%) -3.1%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Incumbent: Liam Byrne (Lab), majority 31,026
Born: Warrington, 1970
First elected: 2004
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: "I'm afraid there is no money"
Notes: Byrne was a minister in both the Blair and Brown governments. He is currently competing to be Labour's candidate for West Midlands Mayor in 2020.
Hodge Hill has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983.
EU referendum: 51% Leave
General election 2017
Liam Byrne (Lab) 37,606 (81.1%) +12.7%
Ahmereen Reza (Con) 6,580 (14.2%) +2.7%
Mohammed Khan (UKIP) 1,016 (2.2%) -9.1%
Phil Bennion (Lib Dem) 805 (1.7%) -4.7%
Clare Thomas (Green) 387 (0.8%) -1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Born: Warrington, 1970
First elected: 2004
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: "I'm afraid there is no money"
Notes: Byrne was a minister in both the Blair and Brown governments. He is currently competing to be Labour's candidate for West Midlands Mayor in 2020.
Hodge Hill has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983.
EU referendum: 51% Leave
General election 2017
Liam Byrne (Lab) 37,606 (81.1%) +12.7%
Ahmereen Reza (Con) 6,580 (14.2%) +2.7%
Mohammed Khan (UKIP) 1,016 (2.2%) -9.1%
Phil Bennion (Lib Dem) 805 (1.7%) -4.7%
Clare Thomas (Green) 387 (0.8%) -1.2%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Ladywood
Incumbent: Shabana Mahmood (Lab), majority 28,714
Born: Birmingham, 1980
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Muslim LGBT school protests, Sainsburys anti-Israel protest
Notes: In 2010 became one of the first female Muslim MPs in Britain, alongside her Labour colleagues Rushanara Ali and Yasmin Qureshi. She is a law graduate and her family roots are in Pakistan.
First elected: 2010
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Muslim LGBT school protests, Sainsburys anti-Israel protest
Notes: In 2010 became one of the first female Muslim MPs in Britain, alongside her Labour colleagues Rushanara Ali and Yasmin Qureshi. She is a law graduate and her family roots are in Pakistan.
Ladywood has been held by Labour since 1970.
EU referendum: 64% Remain
General election 2017
Andrew Browning (Con) 5,452 (13.2%) +0.5%
Lee Dargue (Lib Dem) 1,156 (2.8%) -1.0%
Kefentse Dennis (Green) 533 (1.3%) -2.9%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Northfield
Incumbent: Richard Burden (Lab), majority 4,667
Born: Liverpool, 1954
First elected: 1992
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
First elected: 1992
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Northfield has been held by Labour since 1992.
EU referendum: 62% Leave
General election 2017
Meg Powell-Chandler (Con) 18,929 (42.7%) +7.0%
Roger Harmer (Lib Dem) 959 (2.2%) -1.0%
Eleanor Masters (Green) 864 (1.9%) -0.8%
BTLP general election prediction: Con GAIN
Birmingham Perry Barr
Incumbent: Khalid Mahmood (Lab), majority 18,383
Born: Kashmir (Pakistan), 1961
First elected: 2001
Leave/Remain: Remain (initially Leave, but switched to Remain in protest at immigration being used as a campaign tactic), voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Notes: Shares roots in the same Kashmiri region as Ladywood MP Shabana Mahmood, but they are not related.
First elected: 2001
Leave/Remain: Remain (initially Leave, but switched to Remain in protest at immigration being used as a campaign tactic), voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Notes: Shares roots in the same Kashmiri region as Ladywood MP Shabana Mahmood, but they are not related.
Perry Barr has been held by Labour since 1974.
EU referendum: 51% Leave
General election 2017
Khalid Mahmood (Lab) 30,109 (68.1%) +10.7%
Charlotte Hodivala (Con) 11,726 (26.5%) +5.0%
Harjun Singh (Lib Dem) 1,080 (2.4%) -2.4%
Shangara Bhatoe (Soc Lab) 592 1.3% New
Vijay Rana (Green) 591 (1.3%) -1.9%
Harjinder Singh (Open Borders) 99 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Harjinder Singh (Open Borders) 99 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Selly Oak
Incumbent: Steve McCabe (Lab), majority 15,207
Born: Inverclyde, 1955
First elected: 1997 (for Birmingham Hall Green)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Notes: Following boundary changes in 2010 McCabe switched to Selly Oak and Roger Godsiff took his place in the redrawn Hall Green constituency.
First elected: 1997 (for Birmingham Hall Green)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Expenses scandal
Notes: Following boundary changes in 2010 McCabe switched to Selly Oak and Roger Godsiff took his place in the redrawn Hall Green constituency.
Selly Oak has been held by Labour since 1992.
EU referendum: 53% Remain
General election 2017
Sophie Shrubsole (Con) 15,629 (31.9%) +2.9%
Dave Radcliffe (Lib Dem) 1,644 (3.4%) -2.2%
Julien Pritchard 876 (1.8%) -3.3%
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Birmingham Yardley
Incumbent: Jess Phillips (Lab), majority 16,574
Born: Birmingham, 1981 (youngest Birmingham MP)
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Cologne rape comments
Notes: Phillips won Yardley back for Labour after it had been held by the Lib Dems for ten years. She was educated at one of the top grammar schools in the country (King Edward VI Camp Hill School). She has just had her second book published since becoming an MP.
First elected: 2015
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Cologne rape comments
Notes: Phillips won Yardley back for Labour after it had been held by the Lib Dems for ten years. She was educated at one of the top grammar schools in the country (King Edward VI Camp Hill School). She has just had her second book published since becoming an MP.
Yardley has been held by Labour since 2015.
EU referendum: 60% Leave
General election 2017
Mohammed Afzal (Con) 8,824 (19.8%) +5.8%
John Hemming (Lib Dem) 7,984 (17.9%) -7.7%
Paul Clayton (UKIP) 1,916 (4.3%) -11.8%
Christopher Garghan (Green) 280 (0.6%) -1.1%
Abu Nowshed (Ind) 100 (0.2%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Lab HOLD
Sutton Coldfield
Incumbent: Andrew Mitchell (Con), majority 15,339
Born: London, 1956
First elected: 1987 (for Gedling, Nottinghamshire)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Plebgate
Notes: He has been the MP for Sutton Coldfield since 2001, having previously served as the MP for Gedling in Nottinghamshire between 1987 and 1997. Mitchell is ex-Forces, having served in the Royal Tank Regiment in the 1970s. He served as a minister and chief whip in the coalition government, but resigned in 2012 after 'Plebgate'. He is not one of the 21 Tory rebels recently expelled by Boris Johnson. He is the only Birmingham MP who is not on Twitter.
First elected: 1987 (for Gedling, Nottinghamshire)
Leave/Remain: Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals: Plebgate
Notes: He has been the MP for Sutton Coldfield since 2001, having previously served as the MP for Gedling in Nottinghamshire between 1987 and 1997. Mitchell is ex-Forces, having served in the Royal Tank Regiment in the 1970s. He served as a minister and chief whip in the coalition government, but resigned in 2012 after 'Plebgate'. He is not one of the 21 Tory rebels recently expelled by Boris Johnson. He is the only Birmingham MP who is not on Twitter.
Sutton Coldfield is the only Birmingham seat not to carry the city's name. This is because it is a town in its own right and retained that status despite its incorporation into Birmingham in 1974.
Sutton Coldfield has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1945.
EU referendum: 52% Leave
General election 2017
Andrew Mitchell (Con) 32,224 (61.0%) +6.3%
Rob Pocock (Lab) 16,885 (31.9%) +9.6%
Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem) 2,302 (4.4%) -0.8%
David Ratcliff (Green) 965 (1.8%) -1.0%
Hannah Sophia (Ind) 482 (0.9%) New
BTLP general election prediction: Con HOLD
NEXT WEEK: Manchester
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