Thursday 24 October 2019

IN FOCUS: BIRMINGHAM

This is a new weekly feature appearing every Thursday.  We'll be looking at a specific mainland city each week and we begin with Britain's second city.  'Brum' is comprised of ten Parliamentary constituencies, as shown below.


Population (2018 est):  1,141,374
City Council:  Labour, since 2012
Composition:  Labour (67 cllrs), Conservative (25), Lib Dem (8), Green (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 57.9%, Asian 26.6%, black 8.9%, mixed 4.4%, other 1.2%, Arab 1.0%
EU referendum:  50.4% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Hall Green (Roger Godsiff, Lab) majority 33,944
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Northfield (Richard Burden, Lab) majority 4,667

Birmingham was once a major battleground between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Tories have not won a seat here (with the exception of Sutton Coldfield) since 1992.  The Lib Dems were an electoral force prior to the 2015 general election.  They were heavily punished in that election for both local and national coalitions with the Tories, losing their Yardley seat to Labour, a seat they had held since 2005.  The Lib Dems were the junior partner in a coalition with the Tories that ran Birmingham City Council between 2004 and 2012.

In the 2017 general election the top two places in all ten seats were taken by Labour and Conservative candidates.  The Labour share of the vote was up significantly across all ten seats.  This rise was due in small part to the continuing decline in the Lib Dem vote, but primarily it came from the electoral collapse of UKIP following the EU referendum.  Contrary to popular opinion, UKIP (and the Brexit Party) draw most of their support from working class communities that would otherwise normally vote Labour.

Birmingham has the largest Muslim population in the UK outside London (21.8% according to the 2011 census) and electoral fraud has been evident.  Following the 2004 local elections the results in two council wards were annulled and the six winning Labour candidates removed from office.  The six men were: Muhammed Afzal, Mohammed Islam, Mohammed Kazi (Aston ward) and Shafaq Ahmed, Shah Jahan and Ayaz Khan (Bordesley Green ward).

Only three of Birmingham's ten MPs were born in the city - Preet Gill, Shabana Mahmood and Jess Phillips.  In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, all of the then Birmingham MPs publicly backed Owen Smith with the exception of Gisela Stuart (Edgbaston), who refused to back him unless he dropped his demand for a second EU referendum.

Birmingham Edgbaston

Incumbent:  Preet Gill (Lab), majority 6,917
Born:  Birmingham, 1972
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Britain's first female Sikh MP.

Edgbaston has been held by Labour since 1997.

EU referendum:  53% Remain

General election 2017

Preet Gill (Lab) 24,124 (55.3%) +10.5%
Caroline Squire (Con) 17,207 (39.5%) +1.2%
Colin Green (Lib Dem) 1,564 (3.6%) +0.7%
Alice Kiff (Green) 562 (1.3%) -2.0%
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) 155 (0.4%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Erdington

Incumbent:  Jack Dromey (Lab), majority 7,285
Born:  Middlesex, 1948
First elected:  2010
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Cash for peeragesillegal donationsfailing to declare incomePaedophile Information Exchange
Notes:  Married to former Labour minister/deputy leader/acting leader Harriet Harman since 1982.  Their children were sent to private schools.  Before he became an MP he was Labour's national treasurer and sat on the National Executive Committee.

Erdington has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974.

EU referendum:  63% Leave (strongest Leave vote in Birmingham)

General election 2017

Jack Dromey (Lab) 21,571 (58.0%) +12.3%
Robert Alden (Con) 14,286 (38.4%) +7.6%
Ann Holtom (Lib Dem) 750 (2.0%) -0.8%
James Lovatt (Green) 610 (1.6%) -1.1%

BTLP general election prediction:  Con GAIN

Birmingham Hall Green

Incumbent:  Roger Godsiff (Lab), majority 33,944
Born:  London, 1946 (oldest Birmingham MP)
First elected:  1992 (for Birmingham Small Heath)
Leave/Remain:  Leave, but abstained in the vote to trigger Article 50 in respect of the 66% Remain vote in his constituency
Scandals:  Expenses scandal, Muslim LGBT school protests
Notes:  Godsiff's constituency has been abolished twice due to boundary changes - first in 1997, after which he represented Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath, and again in 2010.  Since then he has represented Birmingham Hall Green, a seat that had previously been held by Labour's Steve McCabe.  As a result of the boundary changes McCabe switched to Birmingham Selly Oak.  Godsiff is currently facing a Corbynite trigger ballot and will have to fight for reselection at the next election.

Hall Green has been held by Labour since 1997.

EU referendum:  66% Remain (strongest Remain vote in Birmingham)

General election 2017

Roger Godsiff (Lab) 42,143 (77.6%) +17.8%
Reena Ranger (Con) 8,199 (15.1%) -2.6%
Jerry Evans (Lib Dems) 3,137 (5.8%) -5.8%
Patrick Cox (Green) 831 (1.5%) -3.1%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Hodge Hill

Incumbent:  Liam Byrne (Lab), majority 31,026
Born:  Warrington, 1970
First elected:  2004
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  "I'm afraid there is no money"
Notes:  Byrne was a minister in both the Blair and Brown governments.  He is currently competing to be Labour's candidate for West Midlands Mayor in 2020.

Hodge Hill has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983.

EU referendum:  51% Leave

General election 2017

Liam Byrne (Lab) 37,606 (81.1%) +12.7%
Ahmereen Reza (Con) 6,580 (14.2%) +2.7%
Mohammed Khan (UKIP) 1,016 (2.2%) -9.1%
Phil Bennion (Lib Dem) 805 (1.7%) -4.7%
Clare Thomas (Green) 387 (0.8%) -1.2%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Ladywood

Incumbent:  Shabana Mahmood (Lab), majority 28,714
Born:  Birmingham, 1980
First elected:  2010
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Muslim LGBT school protests, Sainsburys anti-Israel protest
Notes:  In 2010 became one of the first female Muslim MPs in Britain, alongside her Labour colleagues Rushanara Ali and Yasmin Qureshi.  She is a law graduate and her family roots are in Pakistan.

Ladywood has been held by Labour since 1970.

EU referendum:  64% Remain

General election 2017

Shabana Mahmood (Lab) 34,166 (82.7%) +9.1%
Andrew Browning (Con) 5,452 (13.2%) +0.5%
Lee Dargue (Lib Dem) 1,156 (2.8%) -1.0%
Kefentse Dennis (Green) 533 (1.3%) -2.9%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Northfield

Incumbent:  Richard Burden (Lab), majority 4,667
Born:  Liverpool, 1954
First elected:  1992
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50

Northfield has been held by Labour since 1992.

EU referendum:  62% Leave

General election 2017

Richard Burden (Lab) 23,596 (53.2%) +11.6%
Meg Powell-Chandler (Con) 18,929 (42.7%) +7.0%
Roger Harmer (Lib Dem) 959 (2.2%) -1.0%
Eleanor Masters (Green) 864 (1.9%) -0.8%

BTLP general election prediction:  Con GAIN

Birmingham Perry Barr

Incumbent:  Khalid Mahmood (Lab), majority 18,383
Born:  Kashmir (Pakistan), 1961
First elected:  2001
Leave/Remain:  Remain (initially Leave, but switched to Remain in protest at immigration being used as a campaign tactic), voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Expenses scandal
Notes:  Shares roots in the same Kashmiri region as Ladywood MP Shabana Mahmood, but they are not related.

Perry Barr has been held by Labour since 1974.

EU referendum:  51% Leave

General election 2017

Khalid Mahmood (Lab) 30,109 (68.1%) +10.7%
Charlotte Hodivala (Con) 11,726 (26.5%) +5.0%
Harjun Singh (Lib Dem) 1,080 (2.4%) -2.4%
Shangara Bhatoe (Soc Lab) 592 1.3% New
Vijay Rana (Green) 591 (1.3%) -1.9%
Harjinder Singh (Open Borders) 99 (0.2%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Selly Oak

Incumbent:  Steve McCabe (Lab), majority 15,207
Born:  Inverclyde, 1955
First elected:  1997 (for Birmingham Hall Green)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Expenses scandal
Notes:  Following boundary changes in 2010 McCabe switched to Selly Oak and Roger Godsiff took his place in the redrawn Hall Green constituency.

Selly Oak has been held by Labour since 1992.

EU referendum:  53% Remain

General election 2017

Steve McCabe 30,836 (62.9%) +15.3%
Sophie Shrubsole (Con) 15,629 (31.9%) +2.9%
Dave Radcliffe (Lib Dem) 1,644 (3.4%) -2.2%
Julien Pritchard 876 (1.8%) -3.3%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Yardley

Incumbent: Jess Phillips (Lab), majority 16,574
Born:  Birmingham, 1981 (youngest Birmingham MP)
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Cologne rape comments
Notes:  Phillips won Yardley back for Labour after it had been held by the Lib Dems for ten years.  She was educated at one of the top grammar schools in the country (King Edward VI Camp Hill School).  She has just had her second book published since becoming an MP.

Yardley has been held by Labour since 2015.

EU referendum:  60% Leave

General election 2017

Jess Phillips (Lab) 25,398 (57.1%) +15.4%
Mohammed Afzal (Con) 8,824 (19.8%) +5.8%
John Hemming (Lib Dem) 7,984 (17.9%) -7.7%
Paul Clayton (UKIP) 1,916 (4.3%) -11.8%
Christopher Garghan (Green) 280 (0.6%) -1.1%
Abu Nowshed (Ind) 100 (0.2%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Sutton Coldfield

Incumbent: Andrew Mitchell (Con), majority 15,339
Born:  London, 1956
First elected:  1987 (for Gedling, Nottinghamshire)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Plebgate
Notes: He has been the MP for Sutton Coldfield since 2001, having previously served as the MP for Gedling in Nottinghamshire between 1987 and 1997.  Mitchell is ex-Forces, having served in the Royal Tank Regiment in the 1970s.  He served as a minister and chief whip in the coalition government, but resigned in 2012 after 'Plebgate'.  He is not one of the 21 Tory rebels recently expelled by Boris Johnson.  He is the only Birmingham MP who is not on Twitter.

Sutton Coldfield is the only Birmingham seat not to carry the city's name.  This is because it is a town in its own right and retained that status despite its incorporation into Birmingham in 1974.

Sutton Coldfield has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1945.

EU referendum:  52% Leave

General election 2017

Andrew Mitchell (Con) 32,224 (61.0%) +6.3%
Rob Pocock (Lab) 16,885 (31.9%) +9.6%
Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem) 2,302 (4.4%) -0.8%
David Ratcliff (Green) 965 (1.8%) -1.0%
Hannah Sophia (Ind) 482 (0.9%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Con HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Manchester

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