There were five by-elections this week, including a Cotswold vacancy that was decided on the unorthodox polling day of Tuesday. The four seats being decided on Thursday consisted of two Lib Dem defences, one Reform and one free-for-all.
Reform continued to strike out for a fourth successive week, losing yet another seat to Labour. Restore Britain were present again, as they have been in three out of the four Reform losses to Labour during this period. Reform's slide coincides with a poll boost for Labour, who are now holding and gaining seats under Burnham. No wonder Starmer has skulked off to do his NGO thing...
Higher Kinnerton, Flintshire County Council
Ind: 566 (91.3%) New
Con: 21 (3.4%) New
Ref: 21 (3.4%) New
Hrt: 10 (1.6%) New
Ind: 2 (0.3%) New
Ind GAIN from Ind
This vacancy was triggered in somewhat murky circumstances. While Flintshire Council has stated that the incumbent resigned, other sources suggest that he passed away. Of course, he could have resigned his seat and then passed away. Either way, we had a free-for-all to replace an unaligned councillor, who was elected unopposed in 2022. Independent candidates are very popular in Flintshire, with as many independent councillors as those belonging to the largest party - currently Labour. Labour run Flintshire alongside 13 of these independents, but they did not contest this rural ward on Thursday. In fact there were no left-wing parties standing. Reform, the Conservatives and Heritage went up against two independents (one of which from local group the 'Flintshire People's Voice'). The Flintshire People's Voice triumphed, while Reform and the Tories tied for second place a considerable way off.
Karl - Ind GAIN (Flintshire People's Voice) ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✘
Shepshed, Leicestershire County Council
Lab: 1,163 (32.8%) +14.9%
Ref: 1,110 (31.3%) -13.6%
Con: 819 (23.1%) -2.4%
Res: 228 (6.4%) New
LDm: 115 (3.2%) -3.4%
Grn: 112 (3.2%) -1.9%
Lab GAIN from Ref
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, citing family commitments. She had been elected in May 2025 by a considerable margin over the sitting Conservative. Reform demolished the Tories in that election, taking 24 seats from the party that had controlled the council outright since 2001. However, the newcomers were three seats short of a majority and have run the council as a minority administration since. Reform's loss in this small market town on Thursday did not affect the status quo with regards to the administration. As we have repeatedly seen in recent weeks, the addition of a Restore Britain candidate spells disaster for Reform. Reform may well have held off Labour, were it not for the 228 votes that went to Restore. Reform lost by 53 votes.
Karl - Con GAIN ✘
Rich - Ref HOLD ✘
Bradninch, Mid Devon District Council
LDm: 476 (72.6%) -9.6%
Ref: 91 (13.9%) New
Con: 37 (5.6%) -0.6%
Lab: 31 (4.7%) -6.9%
Grn: 21 (3.2%) New
LDm HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who is relocating to the United States for work. He was previously the council leader, but resigned that post back in May in preparation for his big move. The Lib Dems have a strong grip on the council following the 2023 election, from which they emerged with 34 of the council's 42 seats. This ended more than two decades of no overall control. The party romped home in this rural ward in 2023 against Labour and the Conservatives. A dip in vote share, as Reform jumped straight in at second, wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to cop defeat here.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
Salisbury Milford, Wiltshire Council
LDm: 759 (45.6%) +1.8%
Con: 605 (36.4%) +12.4%
Ref: 189 (11.4%) -6.7%
Lab: 110 (6.6%) -2.1%
LDm HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent for 'personal reasons'. This was probably the most important by-election of the night, because its outcome could have affected what parties run the council. In 2025, the Conservatives lost outright control of the council for the first time in 25 years. The Lib Dems emerged the largest party and currently run the council as a minority administration. They had to rely on support from independent councillors in order to form that administration, but defeat on Thursday to either Reform or the Tories would have tipped the numbers against them. The Conservatives were four seats behind the Lib Dems and looked set to form either a minority administration of their own - with Reform support - or a formal coalition with Reform. The scene for this decider was this upmarket ward that covers the enture eastern side of the city of Salisbury. The Greens finished last here in 2025 with 81 votes and did not contest this time around. The Tories delivered a valiant effort to try and take the seat - and the council - but the Lib Dem machine was too much for them.
Karl - LDm HOLD ✔
Rich - LDm HOLD ✔
The following by-election was held on Tuesday.
Rodborough, Stroud District Council
Lab: 697 (47.0%) +13.2%
Grn: 470 (31.7%) +1.5%
Ref: 191 (12.9%) New
Con: 103 (6.9%) -3.9%
LDm: 23 (1.5%) New
Lab HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, on health grounds. This semi-rural ward to the south of Stroud has very much been a battle between Labour and the Greens in recent years, much like control of the council. Stroud has been in no overall control since 2012, much of that period having a minority Labour administration. However, since 2022 it has been a minority Green administration at the helm and they remain two seats away from outright control after Tursday's result. With no independent standing this time, there had been a significant amount of independent votes up for grabs. Labour scored another impressive result, extending their lead over the Greens and reflecting their recent national polling. Reform bested the Tories as the best of the rest.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Grn GAIN ✘
Karl beat Richey for the third successive week to close the lead to three points. Karl has been one short of a perfect score two weeks on the trot.
