THE COPY AND PASTE PARTY

Following the latest Israeli atrocity in Gaza and looking to retain Muslim votes, many Labour MPs are finally getting around to condemning Israel's war crimes.  On Twitter, sorry 'X', three MPs posted identical tweets, while a fourth tweaked the same tweet.  All four tagged Keir Starmer and delivered the same message, led by backbencher Wayne David, who is retiring after 23 years as the MP for Caerphilly.  David posted his tweet at 12:14.

Nine minutes later, Angela Rayner's account posted the exact same message.  47 minutes after that, her frontbench colleague Lisa Nandy posted a very similar tweet tweet, having clearly just copied, pasted and edited a few details.  Some hours later a third frontbencher - Jo Stevens - posted the original unedited version.

We can't help but think of Rachel Reeves in this instance.  She has already earned a nickname before she completes a single day as Chancellor of the Exchequer.  She will be known as the 'copy and paste Chancellor', in reference to the rampant plagiarism found in her economics book published last year.

The scenes in Rafah are truly horrific and merit something more from an opposition front bench than a mere copy and paste job.

STEVENS RELEASED FROM HOSPITAL

Labour's Jo Stevens has been released from hospital after her battle with coronavirus.  The MP for Cardiff Central spent around five days in hospital, her team tweeting two days ago that her condition was 'improving'.  Stevens thanked staff in a tweet (see below), although curiously there was no mention of the NHS in her tweet.  This may suggest that she was treated privately (oh, the irony).

Stevens is the third Labour MP to have been hospitalised by coronavirus during the pandemic.  Both Yasmin Qureshi (Bolton South East) and Tony Lloyd (Rochdale) made full recoveries.  It is not clear how lockdown enthusiast Stevens caught the virus, but she managed to record a proxy vote in favour of the England lockdown yesterday - despite the fact she represents a Welsh seat!

CARDIFF MP STRUCK DOWN BY COVID

Labour frontbencher Jo Stevens was admitted to hospital over the weekend suffering from coronavirus.  Her staff issued a statement via social media on Saturday night confirming the news, two days after posting that she had been 'laid low with Covid for a while'.  No further details have been released since, so it's not clear how this ultra lockdown enthusiast came to catch the virus.  Was she not practising as she so regularly preaches?

In any case, at the age of 54 and with no apparent underlying health conditions, the odds are stacked overwhelmingly in her favour to make a full recovery.  She is the third Labour MP to have been hospitalised by the virus during the course of the pandemic.  Tony Lloyd (Rochdale) and Yasmin Qureshi (Bolton South East) both made full recoveries.

IN FOCUS: CARDIFF

The capital city of Wales is the eleventh largest city in the UK.  The Welsh name for Cardiff is Caerdydd, although only one in five residents can speak the language.  Despite being surrounded by one of Labour's most famous heartlands - the Valleys - Labour have rarely held all four Parliamentary seats over the years.  In 2017 they captured Cardiff North from the Conservatives and for the first time in 12 years the city turned completely red.  The city is split into these same divisions for elections to the Welsh Assembly (the Senedd) and all four seats are also currently held by Labour.  The First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, represents Cardiff West in the Senedd.

Population (2017 est):  364,248

City & County Council:  Labour, since 2012
Composition:  Labour (38 cllrs), Conservative (21), Lib Dem (11), Ind (5)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 84.7%, Asian 8.0%, mixed 2.9%, black 2.4, other 2.0%
EU referendum:  60% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens, Lab) majority 17,196
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin, Lab) majority 4,174

Cardiff is the seat of devolved power in Wales, despite voting decisively to reject devolution in the 1997 referendum.  The city returned a 56% no vote, but the national result meant devolution was carried by the slimmest of margins - 0.6%.  Labour became the biggest party in Cardiff's unwanted assembly following the first elections to it in 1999.  The party has been in government ever since, albeit never with a majority, governing by coalition or minority.  Following the last elections in 2016 Labour has been in government with the Liberal Democrats (for the second time).  Labour was also in a coalition with Plaid Cymru between 2007 and 2011.

The four assembly members for Cardiff are as follows:

Cardiff Central - Jenny Rathbone (Lab)
Cardiff North - Julie Morgan (Lab)
Cardiff South & Penarth - Vaughan Gething (Lab)
Cardiff West - Mark Drakeford (Lab), First Minister of Wales

For local government the city is administered by the City and County of Cardiff Council.  A bit of a mouthful it is usually referred to as merely Cardiff Council.  This replaced the former city council authority in 1995.  Labour has been the dominant power over the years, regaining full control in 2012 following the collapse of the Lib Dem vote.  The Lib Dems ran a minority administration between 2004 and 2008, prior to forming a coalition with Plaid Cymru.  The last time the Tories were in control here was in 1987.

Cardiff returned a significant Remain vote in 2016 and all four of its MPs are ardent Remainers.  When MPs voted on triggering Article 50 in 2017 the three Labour MPs at that time all voted against.  The Conservative MP for Cardiff North, Craig Williams, voted in favour.  In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn all the Cardiff Labour MPs supported Owen Smith.

Please note the following constituency details relate to Westminster seats.

Cardiff Central

Incumbent:  Jo Stevens (Lab), majority 17,196

Born:  Swansea, 1966

First elected:  2015

Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50

Notes:  A solicitor and ardent Remainer.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.

Cardiff Central has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Liberal Democrats since 2005.

EU referendum:  68% Remain, strongest Remain vote in Cardiff

General election 2017

Jo Stevens (Lab) 25,193 (62.4%) +22.4%
Gregory Stafford (Con) 7,997 (19.8%) +5.1%
Eluned Parrott (Lib Dem) 5,415 (13.4%) -13.7%
Mark Hooper (Plaid) 999 (2.5%) -2.5%
Benjamin Smith (Green) 420 (1.0%) -5.3%
Mohammed Sarul-Islam (UKIP) 343 (0.8%) -5.6%

General election candidates 2019

Jo Stevens (Lab)

Meirion Jenkins (Con)

Bablin Molik (Lib Dem)

Gareth Pearce (Brexit)

Brian Johnson (Socialist)

Siân Caiach (Gwlad)
Akil Kata (Ind)

Note:  This is a Remain Alliance seat where Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have stood aside to give the Liberal Democrats a free run.

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Cardiff North

Incumbent:  Anna McMorrin (Lab), majority 4,174
Born:  1971
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Ardent Remainer.  She claims to have grown up near Brecon, but for some unknown reason her birthplace is a closely guarded secret.

Cardiff North has been held by Labour since 2017, before which it was Conservative.  The seat has been held by the Tories for most of its 69 year history, during which it has returned just three Labour MPs.

EU referendum:  61% Remain

General election 2017

Anna McMorrin (Lab) 26,081 (50.1%) +11.9%
Craig Williams (Con) 21,907 (42.1%) -0.3%
Steffan Webb (Plaid) 1,738 (3.3%) -1.2%
Matt Hemsley (Lib Dem) 1,714 (3.3%) -0.5%
Gary Oldfield (UKIP) 582 (1.1%) -6.6%

General election candidates 2019

Anna McMorrin (Lab)
Mo Ali (Con)
Steffan Webb (Plaid)

Rhys Taylor (Lib Dem)
Chris Butler (Brexit)
Michael Cope (Green)
Richard Jones (Ind)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Cardiff South & Penarth

Incumbent:  Stephen Doughty (Lab), majority 14,864
Born:  Cardiff, 1980
First elected:  2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  One of Labour's most ardent Parliamentary Remainers.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership contest.

Cardiff South & Penarth has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983

EU referendum:  57% Remain

General election 2017

Stephen Doughty (Lab) 30,182 (59.5%) +16.7%
Bill Rees (Con) 15,318 (30.2%) +3.4%
Ian Titherington (Plaid) 2,162 (4.3%) -3.1%
Emma Sands (Lib Dem) 1,430 (2.8%) -2.1%
Andrew Bevan (UKIP) 942 (1.9%) -11.9%
Anthony Slaughter (Green) 532 (1.0%) -2.7%
Jebediah Hedges (Pirate) 170 (0.3%) New

General election candidates 2019

Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Phillippa Broom (Con)

Nasir Adam (Plaid)
Dan Schmeising (Lib Dem)
Green Ken Barker (Green)
Tim Price (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Cardiff West

Incumbent:  Kevin Brennan (Lab), majority 12,551
Born:  Cwmbran, 1959
First elected:  2001
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  A member of both the Blair and Brown governments.  Another ardent Remainer and backer of Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election.
Scandals:  Tiegate, Expenses scandal

Cardiff West has been held by Labour since 1987, before which it was briefly held by the Conservatives for one Parliamentary term

EU referendum:  56% Remain

General election 2017

Kevin Brennan (Lab) 26,425 (56.7%) +16.0%
Matt Smith (Con) 13,874 (29.8%) +4.6%
Michael Deem (Plaid) 4,418 (9.5%) -4.4%
Alex Meredith (Lib Dem) 1,214 (2.6%) -2.1%
Richard Lewis (UKIP) 698 (1.5%) -9.7%

General election candidates 2019

Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Carolyn Webster (Con)
Boyd Clack (Plaid)
Callum Littlemore (Lib Dem)

Nick Mullins (Brexit)
David Griffin (Green)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

NEXT WEEK:  Southampton

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