Three seats are up for grabs this week, a gentle warm-up for next week's mammoth round of by-elections (18 council and three Westminster). The lads are mostly favouring Reform for success this week.
Christleton & Huntington, Cheshire West and Chester Council
(Con defence)
This was triggered by the death of the incumbent and the Tories have got a big name defending the seat in his honour. Former local MP Stephen Mosley lost his City of Chester seat at Westminster after just one term in 2015 (Labour have held the seat since). Reform are the only newcomers this time around.
Karl - Ref GAIN
Rich - Grn GAIN
Apsley & Corner Hall, Dacorum Borough Council
(LDm defence)
This is a notional defence, with the incumbent having served as an independent for the last two years. She resigned from the Lib Dems alongside several colleagues, following a row with the then Lib Dem council leader. The Lib Dems lost their majority as a result. There will be three newcomers to the ballot this time - Reform, the Greens and an independent.
Karl - LDm HOLD
Rich - Ref GAIN
Cippenham Green, Slough Borough Council
(Con defence)
The Tories won this seat fairly easily in 2023 and will be looking for a rare hold after the incumbent unexpectedly resigned. Reform and the Greens are new entries in a ward with a significant Asian population. Curiously, the two right-leaning parties are the only ones on the ballot to have selected Asian candidates. The Reform candidate has the unfortunate surname Mahboob (which stems from a term of endearment in Arabic).
Karl - Con HOLD
Rich - Ref GAIN
Karl leads Richey 3-1 going into week four of our forecast.
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