IN NEED OF PEAS & AR MONEY

We've not heard much from Labour's Paulette Hamilton since she was first elected to Parliament in 2022.  It was her selection for the Birmingham Erdington by-election that drew attention to her black power 'ballot or the bullet' speech in which she said: "I'm not sure we will get what we really deserve in this country using the vote".  Her predominantly white working class constituency wasn't swayed by the controversy and elected her to succeed the deceased Jack Dromey anyway, with an almost identical majority.  She went on to buck the urban trend in last year's general election, more than doubling her majority.

Paulette was back on our screens this week, appearing on Jeremy Vine's Channel 5 daytime show.  One of the topics up for discussion with Vine's stand-in Matt Allwright was inevitably the Ukraine, which has predictably become an opportunity for yet more Trump-bashing.  To be fair to Matt, he repeated the Donald's point that the war has dragged on for three years without so much as an olive branch from any Western power, something that has changed rapidly with his return to the White House.  However, the conversation quickly reverts back to the establishment line that the war must go on and Russia is a threat to us all.

Presenter Matt then ratchets up the fear level by raising the spectre of conscription, in order to 'put British boots' on the ground in the Ukraine.  Now Paulette belongs to a party that openly mocked Rishi Sunak when he proposed national service as one of his party's pledges ahead of last year's general election a policy that obviously was never going to happen anyway.  But now, in response to Matt's question, Paulette was suddenly open to conscription which she said invited 'serious discussion'.

Dear oh dear.  The scares are coming thick and fast now that the Ukraine money laundering scam is under threat.  That is not to say that Paulette - or Matt - are directly profiting from the Ukraine, but they are both useful idiots in the bigger scheme of things.  Hilariously, Paulette backs up her case for conscription by saying that 'our borders are being threatened'.  Unfortunately, the (imaginary) threat of which she speaks is from Russia, and not from wave upon wave of illegal migrants sailing across the Channel!

Paulette does makes a valid point about '70 years of relative peas and ar money' coming on the back of the sacrifices made by our forefathers (that's peace and harmony to non-Brummie speakers out there).

Watch the clip below...

CAPLIN'S POWERFUL FOLLOWERS

Just a few of the prominent faces who follow Caplin's sordid X account

*** UPDATE *** Caplin deleted his X account on Thursday afternoon

Earlier this week we exposed the sickening debauchery of Ivor Caplin's X feed.  It was a small microcosm of something that would take Caplin hours, if not days, to delete now that he has been released from custody.  While it's not yet clear if he has been charged or released on bail, we know that he began using his X account again on Wednesday, because he retweeted several (non-pornographic) posts.  If no charges are brought against Caplin it would be an outrage, as the self-styled 'paedophile hunters' who snared him will have supplied police with all the proof they need.  Furthermore, police officers are known to have raided Caplin's Hove flat while he was in custody and according to neighbours the search 'took several hours'.

However, we also know that Caplin has powerful friends.  As soon as news broke of his arrest, X users began to make notes of who followed his account and the names were huge...

The official Labour party X account was following Caplin's account at the time of his arrest, although it was quickly unfollowed after the news broke.  Many other high profile Labour figures also followed Caplin on X, some of whom have since unfollowed him - including the likes of Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting - but not before eagle-eyed X users screenshot their names.

At the time of his arrest, serving Labour MPs who followed Caplin's X account included Luke Akehurst (North Durham), Phil Brickell (Bolton West), Liam Byrne (Birmingham Hodge Hill), Jim Dickson (Dartford), Clive Efford (Eltham & Chislehurst), Fabian Hamilton (Leeds East), Sharon Hodgson (Washington & Gateshead South), Dan Jarvis (Barnsley North), Gerald Jones (Merthyr & Aberdare), Alison McGovern (Birkenhead), Anna McMorrin (Cardiff North), Fred Thomas (Plymouth Moor View), Gareth Thomas (Harrow West), Matt Turmaine (Watford), Paul Waugh (Rochdale) and Catherine West (Hornsey & Friern Barnet).

Serving Labour ministers who follow or followed his account include Janet Daby (Lewisham East), Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South & Penarth), Nia Griffith (Llanelli), Andrew Gwynne (Gorton & Denton), Peter Kyle (Hove & Portslade), Luke Pollard (Plymouth Sutton & Devonport), Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge & Hyde) and last, but not least - Yvette Cooper, Dave Lammy, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting.

A fairly recent photo of Caplin with his local MP and current frontbencher Peter Kyle

At the time of writing, Caplin's account is also followed by Lord (Michael) Cashman, Baroness (Janet) Royall, Baroness (Jacqui) Smith, former MPs Wayne David and Julie Elliot, former PM Gordon Brown and the despicable Alastair Campbell.  However, the name of most interest is that of the deceased former MP Jack Dromey, who - along with Patricia Hewitt and his wife Harriet Harman - were involved in the PIE scandal of the 1970s.  P.I.E stands for the Paedophile Information Exchange, which campaigned for the abolition of the age of consent and was linked to a libertarian group of which the trio were prominent members.

For those who suspect that the total lack of media coverage over the weekend from the major news channels is perhaps indicative of some kind of conspiracy, it will surely be of interest to note that many journalists follow Caplin too - including the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, the senior editor of Newsnight, the i newspaper's Benjamin Butterworth, Dan Hodges of The Daily Mail and many more.  If they were able and/or willing to report freely, why did none of them expose the disgusting content of Caplin's X feed?

Finally, to cap it all off, Caplin's account is followed by the official X account of the Crown Prosecution Service.  It will be of no great surprise to anyone if no charges are brought...

DROMEY VACATES SEAT

The death of Mr Harriet Harman means there will be yet another Westminster by-election in the near future.  Jack Dromey died suddenly over the weekend at the age of 73, having spoken in the Commons the previous day complaining that the government is not doing enough for Afghan 'refugees'.  Cue lots of glowing tributes from across the establishment and no mention of the numerous scandals he was embroiled in during his life.

Originally from Brent, Dromey spent years trying to get himself parachuted into a safe seat before he finally made it as the candidate for Birmingham Erdington in 2010.  Erdington had been held by Labour since 1945, albeit mostly as a marginal.  Dromey held the seat for Labour in 2010 with a 3,277 majority, followed by 5,129 in 2015, 7,285 in 2017 and 3,601 in 2019.  If the Tories were not in such a desperate state at the moment, they might have fancied their chances here.

A date for the by-election has not yet been decided.

Birmingham Erdington 2019 general election

Jack Dromey (Lab) 17,720 (50.3%) -7.7%

Robert Alden (Con) 14,119 (40.1%) +1.7%

Wendy Garcarz (Brexit) 1,441 (4.1%) New

Ann Holtom (LDem) 1,301 (3.7%) +1.7%

Rob Grant (Grn) 648 (1.8%) +0.2%

BRUM ACTIVIST CAUGHT ON CAMERA

Ansar Ali Khan pictured with Labour's failed West Mids mayoral candidate Liam Byrne

Sinister video doorbells manufactured by Amazon (who else?) are becoming more and more commonplace in the UK and one such device has caught out a Labour leafleter in Birmingham.  The sharp-dressed party activist was captured chatting to a comrade on a doorstep in Erdington and could be heard describing the constituency as 'shit'.  Click below for the video.

Earlier this year a Labour councillor in Nottinghamshire was filmed pilfering a Tory leaflet by one of these camera doorbells.  The man in the Birmingham video is reportedly Ansar Ali Khan, a former councillor and deputy leader of Birmingham City Council.  The MP for whom Khan was leafleting expressed dismay in a statement put out on his website.  Jack Dromey makes no reference to Khan by name and merely describes the individual concerned as a 'volunteer'.

"Like many Erdington residents, I find these comments outrageous and deeply offensive.  I have made my views clear to the volunteer and expressed my digust at what was said.  I strongly disassociate myself from these remarks.  I am proud to have served as the Member of Parliament for Erdington since 2010 and these comments in no way reflect my views of the fantastic and vibrant community we have here.  I have been informed the matter is being referred to the West Midlands Labour Party for them to investigate and take action.  I have also demanded the volunteer apologise to the people of Erdington".

Jack Dromey, Labour MP for Birmingham Erdington

At the time of writing there has not been any statement from Khan, let alone an apology.  There is also a question mark over Dromey's assertion that he is an 'Erdington resident'.  He provided a redacted address in the constituency for his nomination at the 2019 general election, but we have to remember that his wife - Harriet Harman - is a London MP.  She provided a London address in the same general election, so where exactly is the marital home?

IN FOCUS: BIRMINGHAM

This is a new weekly feature appearing every Thursday.  We'll be looking at a specific mainland city each week and we begin with Britain's second city.  'Brum' is comprised of ten Parliamentary constituencies, as shown below.

Population (2018 est):  1,141,374
City Council:  Labour, since 2012
Composition:  Labour (67 cllrs), Conservative (25), Lib Dem (8), Green (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 57.9%, Asian 26.6%, black 8.9%, mixed 4.4%, other 1.2%, Arab 1.0%
EU referendum:  50.4% Leave
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Hall Green (Roger Godsiff, Lab) majority 33,944
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Northfield (Richard Burden, Lab) majority 4,667

Birmingham was once a major battleground between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Tories have not won a seat here (with the exception of Sutton Coldfield) since 1992.  The Lib Dems were an electoral force prior to the 2015 general election.  They were heavily punished in that election for both local and national coalitions with the Tories, losing their Yardley seat to Labour, a seat they had held since 2005.  The Lib Dems were the junior partner in a coalition with the Tories that ran Birmingham City Council between 2004 and 2012.

In the 2017 general election the top two places in all ten seats were taken by Labour and Conservative candidates.  The Labour share of the vote was up significantly across all ten seats.  This rise was due in small part to the continuing decline in the Lib Dem vote, but primarily it came from the electoral collapse of UKIP following the EU referendum.  Contrary to popular opinion, UKIP (and the Brexit Party) draw most of their support from working class communities that would otherwise normally vote Labour.

Birmingham has the largest Muslim population in the UK outside London (21.8% according to the 2011 census) and electoral fraud has been evident.  Following the 2004 local elections the results in two council wards were annulled and the six winning Labour candidates removed from office.  The six men were: Muhammed Afzal, Mohammed Islam, Mohammed Kazi (Aston ward) and Shafaq Ahmed, Shah Jahan and Ayaz Khan (Bordesley Green ward).

Only three of Birmingham's ten MPs were born in the city - Preet Gill, Shabana Mahmood and Jess Phillips.  In the 2016 leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, all of the then Birmingham MPs publicly backed Owen Smith with the exception of Gisela Stuart (Edgbaston), who refused to back him unless he dropped his demand for a second EU referendum.

Birmingham Edgbaston

Incumbent:  Preet Gill (Lab), majority 6,917
Born:  Birmingham, 1972
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Britain's first female Sikh MP.

Edgbaston has been held by Labour since 1997.

EU referendum:  53% Remain

General election 2017

Preet Gill (Lab) 24,124 (55.3%) +10.5%
Caroline Squire (Con) 17,207 (39.5%) +1.2%
Colin Green (Lib Dem) 1,564 (3.6%) +0.7%
Alice Kiff (Green) 562 (1.3%) -2.0%
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) 155 (0.4%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Erdington

Incumbent:  Jack Dromey (Lab), majority 7,285
Born:  Middlesex, 1948
First elected:  2010
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Cash for peerages, illegal donations, failing to declare income, Paedophile Information Exchange
Notes:  Married to former Labour minister/deputy leader/acting leader Harriet Harman since 1982.  Their children were sent to private schools.  Before he became an MP he was Labour's national treasurer and sat on the National Executive Committee.

Erdington has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974.

EU referendum:  63% Leave (strongest Leave vote in Birmingham)

General election 2017

Jack Dromey (Lab) 21,571 (58.0%) +12.3%
Robert Alden (Con) 14,286 (38.4%) +7.6%
Ann Holtom (Lib Dem) 750 (2.0%) -0.8%
James Lovatt (Green) 610 (1.6%) -1.1%

BTLP general election prediction:  Con GAIN

Birmingham Hall Green

Incumbent:  Roger Godsiff (Lab), majority 33,944
Born:  London, 1946 (oldest Birmingham MP)
First elected:  1992 (for Birmingham Small Heath)
Leave/Remain:  Leave, but abstained in the vote to trigger Article 50 in respect of the 66% Remain vote in his constituency
Scandals:  Expenses scandal, Muslim LGBT school protests
Notes:  Godsiff's constituency has been abolished twice due to boundary changes - first in 1997, after which he represented Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath, and again in 2010.  Since then he has represented Birmingham Hall Green, a seat that had previously been held by Labour's Steve McCabe.  As a result of the boundary changes McCabe switched to Birmingham Selly Oak.  Godsiff is currently facing a Corbynite trigger ballot and will have to fight for reselection at the next election.

Hall Green has been held by Labour since 1997.

EU referendum:  66% Remain (strongest Remain vote in Birmingham)

General election 2017

Roger Godsiff (Lab) 42,143 (77.6%) +17.8%
Reena Ranger (Con) 8,199 (15.1%) -2.6%
Jerry Evans (Lib Dems) 3,137 (5.8%) -5.8%
Patrick Cox (Green) 831 (1.5%) -3.1%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Hodge Hill

Incumbent:  Liam Byrne (Lab), majority 31,026
Born:  Warrington, 1970
First elected:  2004
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  "I'm afraid there is no money"
Notes:  Byrne was a minister in both the Blair and Brown governments.  He is currently competing to be Labour's candidate for West Midlands Mayor in 2020.

Hodge Hill has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983.

EU referendum:  51% Leave

General election 2017

Liam Byrne (Lab) 37,606 (81.1%) +12.7%
Ahmereen Reza (Con) 6,580 (14.2%) +2.7%
Mohammed Khan (UKIP) 1,016 (2.2%) -9.1%
Phil Bennion (Lib Dem) 805 (1.7%) -4.7%
Clare Thomas (Green) 387 (0.8%) -1.2%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Ladywood

Incumbent:  Shabana Mahmood (Lab), majority 28,714

Born:  Birmingham, 1980
First elected:  2010
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Muslim LGBT school protests, Sainsburys anti-Israel protest
Notes:  In 2010 became one of the first female Muslim MPs in Britain, alongside her Labour colleagues Rushanara Ali and Yasmin Qureshi.  She is a law graduate and her family roots are in Pakistan.

Ladywood has been held by Labour since 1970.

EU referendum:  64% Remain

General election 2017

Shabana Mahmood (Lab) 34,166 (82.7%) +9.1%
Andrew Browning (Con) 5,452 (13.2%) +0.5%
Lee Dargue (Lib Dem) 1,156 (2.8%) -1.0%
Kefentse Dennis (Green) 533 (1.3%) -2.9%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Northfield

Incumbent:  Richard Burden (Lab), majority 4,667

Born:  Liverpool, 1954
First elected:  1992
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50

Northfield has been held by Labour since 1992.

EU referendum:  62% Leave

General election 2017

Richard Burden (Lab) 23,596 (53.2%) +11.6%
Meg Powell-Chandler (Con) 18,929 (42.7%) +7.0%
Roger Harmer (Lib Dem) 959 (2.2%) -1.0%
Eleanor Masters (Green) 864 (1.9%) -0.8%

BTLP general election prediction:  Con GAIN

Birmingham Perry Barr

Incumbent:  Khalid Mahmood (Lab), majority 18,383

Born:  Kashmir (Pakistan), 1961
First elected:  2001
Leave/Remain:  Remain (initially Leave, but switched to Remain in protest at immigration being used as a campaign tactic), voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Expenses scandal
Notes:  Shares roots in the same Kashmiri region as Ladywood MP Shabana Mahmood, but they are not related.

Perry Barr has been held by Labour since 1974.

EU referendum:  51% Leave

General election 2017

Khalid Mahmood (Lab) 30,109 (68.1%) +10.7%
Charlotte Hodivala (Con) 11,726 (26.5%) +5.0%
Harjun Singh (Lib Dem) 1,080 (2.4%) -2.4%
Shangara Bhatoe (Soc Lab) 592 1.3% New

Vijay Rana (Green) 591 (1.3%) -1.9%
Harjinder Singh (Open Borders) 99 (0.2%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Selly Oak

Incumbent:  Steve McCabe (Lab), majority 15,207

Born:  Inverclyde, 1955
First elected:  1997 (for Birmingham Hall Green)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Expenses scandal
Notes:  Following boundary changes in 2010 McCabe switched to Selly Oak and Roger Godsiff took his place in the redrawn Hall Green constituency.

Selly Oak has been held by Labour since 1992.

EU referendum:  53% Remain

General election 2017

Steve McCabe 30,836 (62.9%) +15.3%
Sophie Shrubsole (Con) 15,629 (31.9%) +2.9%
Dave Radcliffe (Lib Dem) 1,644 (3.4%) -2.2%
Julien Pritchard 876 (1.8%) -3.3%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Birmingham Yardley

Incumbent: Jess Phillips (Lab), majority 16,574

Born:  Birmingham, 1981 (youngest Birmingham MP)
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Cologne rape comments
Notes:  Phillips won Yardley back for Labour after it had been held by the Lib Dems for ten years.  She was educated at one of the top grammar schools in the country (King Edward VI Camp Hill School).  She has just had her second book published since becoming an MP.

Yardley has been held by Labour since 2015.

EU referendum:  60% Leave

General election 2017

Jess Phillips (Lab) 25,398 (57.1%) +15.4%
Mohammed Afzal (Con) 8,824 (19.8%) +5.8%
John Hemming (Lib Dem) 7,984 (17.9%) -7.7%
Paul Clayton (UKIP) 1,916 (4.3%) -11.8%
Christopher Garghan (Green) 280 (0.6%) -1.1%
Abu Nowshed (Ind) 100 (0.2%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Sutton Coldfield

Incumbent: Andrew Mitchell (Con), majority 15,339

Born:  London, 1956
First elected:  1987 (for Gedling, Nottinghamshire)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Scandals:  Plebgate
Notes: He has been the MP for Sutton Coldfield since 2001, having previously served as the MP for Gedling in Nottinghamshire between 1987 and 1997.  Mitchell is ex-Forces, having served in the Royal Tank Regiment in the 1970s.  He served as a minister and chief whip in the coalition government, but resigned in 2012 after 'Plebgate'.  He is not one of the 21 Tory rebels recently expelled by Boris Johnson.  He is the only Birmingham MP who is not on Twitter.

Sutton Coldfield is the only Birmingham seat not to carry the city's name.  This is because it is a town in its own right and retained that status despite its incorporation into Birmingham in 1974.

Sutton Coldfield has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1945.

EU referendum:  52% Leave

General election 2017

Andrew Mitchell (Con) 32,224 (61.0%) +6.3%
Rob Pocock (Lab) 16,885 (31.9%) +9.6%
Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem) 2,302 (4.4%) -0.8%
David Ratcliff (Green) 965 (1.8%) -1.0%
Hannah Sophia (Ind) 482 (0.9%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Con HOLD

NEXT WEEK:  Manchester

Please support our work by donating what you can here

LABOUR'S BRUM OUTSIDERS

One of the refreshing things about the Peterborough by-election was the fact that all the main candidates were from Peterborough itself, all the way down the list as far as UKIP.  In the previous post we heard from the Labour MP for Birmingham Hall Green, Roger Godsiff.  Listening to him drone on in his rather distinctly un-Brummie tones it reminded us of various other instances of Labour people being 'parachuted' in.  Yorkshire has plenty of them - Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeves and Mary Creagh to name a few, coincidentally all hideous Brexit-blocking MPs who are at odds with their Leave-voting constituencies.

Anyway, to cut a long story short we decided to look at Roger Godsiff and his fellow Birmingham Labour MPs and see how many are actually born and bred in the city.  Turns out, not that many...

Roger Godsiff (Hall Green) born in Lewisham, London

Richard Burden (Northfield) born in Liverpool

Liam Byrne (Hodge Hill) born in Warrington

Jack Dromey (Erdington) born in Brent, London

Preet Kaur Gill (Edgbaston) born in Edgbaston, Birmingham

Steve McCabe (Selly Oak) born in Inverclyde

Khalid Mahmood (Perry Barr) born in Pakistan

Shabana Mahmood (Ladywood) born in Small Heath, Birmingham

Jess Phillips (Yardley) born in Birmingham

That's only a third of Birmingham MPs actually born in Birmingham.

In the cause of fairness the Tory MP for Sutton Coldfield (Andrew Mitchell) isn't a Brummie either (another Londoner).  Pretty sure that most London MPs are from London.  Funny that.