STARMER CRACKS THE WHIP

Top: Rebecca Long-Bailey, John McDonnell, Zarah Sultana and Richard Burgon
Bottom: Imran Hussain, Apsana Begum and Ian Byrne

Keir Starmer sent a clear message on Tuesday that he will not tolerate dissidents, suspending the party whip from seven hard left MPs following a minor rebellion in the Commons.  The seven were all from the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs.  Of course, when you have a 174 seat majority, one can afford to suspend a fair number - in fact Starmer could have suspended the entire Socialist Campaign Group of 24 MPs if they had all voted accordingly.  The seven, who include the likes of John McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey, will remain suspended for six months and sit as independents during that time.

It was an SNP-backed amendment that led to the first rebellion of Starmer's premiership.  The amendment demanded an end to the two child benefit cap, introduced by the Tories in 2017.  Naturally, those on the left favour a never-ending flow of state handouts to families, regardless of the size and ability to earn a living.

The government won the vote 363-103.  The Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid and all the Northern Ireland parties supported the SNP motion.  The Conservatives abstained, while 41 Labour MPs abstained or were absent, including eight members of the Socialist Campaign Group - Diane Abbott, Mary Foy, Kim Johnson, Ian Lavery, Andy McDonald, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Jon Trickett and Nadia Whittome.  The remainder of the SCG voted with the government, one of whom tried to con her way out of her 'scabby' vote...

Dawn Butler declared on X that she supported an end to the two child benefit cap, publishing a letter she had written to Liz Kendall, who is now Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.  The BBC even erroneously reported that Butler had abstained on the vote.  She didn't, her vote is recorded with the noes, alongside SCG comrades (or scabs, as the left might say) Tahir Ali, Olivia Blake, Marsha de Cordova, Clive Lewis, Rachael Maskell, Grahame Morris, Kate Osamor and Kate Osborne.  None of these others tried to weasel their way out like Butler tried (and failed, judging by the comments on her post).

This significant three-way split for Labour's hard left will no doubt please centrists like Starmer.

When Starmer won the Labour leadership in 2020, it soon became clear that the hard left - under which he had served as a shadow minister - were going to feel the squeeze.  Former front bench comrades such as Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and co were going to the sword at the first opportunity.  Corbyn was felled, but got his revenge earlier this month by robbing Starmer of Islington North.  Abbott was felled, then she was readmitted.  McDonnell kept his head down and kept his seat.  Others who were suspended, expelled and/or deselected were Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Sam Tarry and Claudia Webbe.

TOON TUESDAY #15

A truly remarkable period in US politics continues this week as Sleepy Joe stands down from re-election.  Exactly how much he knows about this decision remains to be seen, as he hasn't been seen for five days and the nature of his announcement has given rise to multiple conspiracy theories.  Does he really have Covid?  How bad is it??  Is he even alive???

Tom Stiglich depicts the growing number of knives that have struck Biden in the back
since his debate humiliation

Ben Garrison mirrors recent tyre marking vandalism against LGBT-themed streets by
showing Trump burning rubber all over Biden's campaign logo

Harking back to Friday's disastrous Windows update, Ella Baron for The Times

LEWIS RETAKES THE OATH

Labour's Clive Lewis has been forced to retake his oath of allegiance as an MP, following an objection and omission during his first attempt.  Despite having previously taken the oath three times, the hard left MP for Norwich South decided to make an issue of it in 2024.  A republican, Lewis objects to the wording of the oath, which reads: "I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King Charles, his heirs and successors, according to law."

Lewis prefaced his oath with the statement: "I take this oath under protest and in the hope that one day my fellow citizens will democratically decide to live in a republic".  He then proceeded to omit the words 'his heirs and successors' (see video clip below).

If MPs do not complete the oath of allegiance, they cannot take their seats or salary.  Sinn Fein MPs traditionally refuse the oath and therefore do not take their seats in the Commons or draw a salary.

Clive obviously didn't want to miss out on either, so when asked to retake his oath, he duly obliged - albeit with reworded protest.  Lewis prefaced his second attempt to swear in with the preface: "I was elected to Parliament to represent my constituents and our country to the best of my ability to defend democracy and uphold human rights and one day I hope all members of parliament will be entitled to swear an oath of allegiance based on those values".

Lewis went on to complete the wording this time and successfully take up his seat in the Commons (see video clip below).

Lewis was not alone in protesting the oath.  SDLP leader Colum Eastwood declared words of protest before and after he completed the oath.  The MP for Foyle (which includes the city of Londonderry) prefaced his oath with the statement: "I read out this empty formula in order to represent my constituents, but it’s under protest".  After he completed the oath, he added: "My true allegiance is to the people of Derry and to the people of Ireland."

Eastwood's colleague, Claire Hanna (Belfast South & Mid Down), voiced a similar protest: "In friendship and in hope of a reconciled new Ireland, my allegiance is to the people of Belfast South and Mid Down.  I say these words in order to serve them".

TWO MILLION HITS

Thanks to an increase in content during the election campaign, traffic to our website exploded and we have recently surpassed two million hits.  Karl's meme work was showcased in important shares from big names such as Laurence Fox, with the ever present binlabour.com tag intact for all to see.  Richey's work on the website has also aided number visitors, having already more than doubled the number of posts from the entirety of 2023.

Thank you, and if you're here for the first time - welcome!

TOON TUESDAY #14

The attempted assassination of President Trump on Saturday created one of the most iconic moments of all time.  After miraculously surviving the shooter's bullets, Trump rose to his feet and punched the air defiantly.  The resulting imagery all but nailed Trump for a presidential return in November - presuming they don't try and kill him again.

Divine intervention was how Ben Garrison saw Trump's survival, while Tom Stiglich recreated the moment of defiance.  Wokely Correct Comics used the shooting as yet another opportunity to mock Sleepy Joe.

VAUGHAN GETHING RESIGNS

Vaughan Gething has resigned as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister of Wales after just four months in the roles.  Gething had been dogged by corruption scandals from day one of his short tenure, albeit he continued to deny wrongdoing in his resignation speech.

Gething announced his decision after four members of his cabinet resigned on Tuesday and publicly called on him to go.  Mick Antoniw, Lesley Griffiths, Julie James and Jeremy Miles all quit and posted their resignation letters to social media.  Gething was left with little option.

In a four minute somewhat narcissistic resignation speech, Gething made clear that he had hoped the scandals would blow over:  "I had hoped that over the summer, a period of reflection, rebuilding and renewal could take place under my leadership.  I recognise now that this is not possible".  He then went on to list his supposed achievements, before flat out denying any misconduct:  "A growing assertion that some kind of wrongdoing has taken place has been pernicious, politically motivated and patently untrue".

Gething's full resignation speech can be seen below.

The main sticking point in Gething's tenure was his relationship with environmental convict David Neal, who had donated £200,000 to Gething during his leadership campaign.  Gething had also lobbied for Neal and his waste company in past dealings as a Welsh minister.  There were also awkward questions about deleted WhatsApp messages from Gething's phone during the period of the Covid scamdemic.

The resignation also reflects badly on Keir Starmer, the new PM having publicly backed Gething throughout.  Labour will now seek a third Welsh leader since the turn of the year with Jeremy Miles, who was narrowly defeated by Gething in March, an early favourite.

Amid the turmoil, Plaid Cymru called for a snap election two years ahead of schedule.

GOOD FORM, SIR KEIR!

Starmer loved almost every minute in the limelight

Keir Starmer was clearly delighted to join other globalist puppets at the NATO war summit this week.  He was all smiles and nods as he mingled with Davos comrades, but none more so than with the current resident of the White House nursing home.  Sir Squeaky happily gave the media interview after interview detailing how he spent 'the best part of an hour' with Joe Biden, as opposed to the 45 minutes he was allocated.  Perhaps the extra 15 minutes came about because Sleepy Joe dozed off several times, or maybe it was the amount of times his brain shut down mid-sentence, rewound and tried to repeat coherently whatever garbled nonsense had just exited his mouth.

Who knows, but Starmer was clearly cock-a-hoop about spending time with his US counterpart and even found time for a GB News interview, alongside the Beeb, Sky, ITV and others.  The entire establishment media has recently declared that Joe might not be mentally cognitive enough to justify his position, having previously chosen to ignore an ever increasing litany of gaffes and falls.  Just as they had covered for Senile Joe over the last four years, it now fell to our new PM to cover for him.

"He was on good form" Starmer repeated in every single interview, sometimes more than once.  "Is he senile?" asked the Beeb's Chris Mason.  "No" replied Starmer in a not entirely convincing tone as he moved on within a millisecond.

Starmer's defence of Biden's mental agility bit him on the arse the moment Joe next hit the stage.  As the delegates gathered to hear from money launderer in chief - Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Biden introduced him as 'President Putin'.  The Ukrainian stood bemused for a few seconds, as Joe hastily rewound and corrected himself.  The humiliation, for both men, was there for the world to see.  The media can no longer hide Joe's decline any more, which is why they changed their tune following the car crash presidential debate between Biden and Trump earlier this month.

It would have been bad enough if that had been the end of it, but there was more to come later in the day.  As Biden attempted to field questions from journalists, he was asked if he felt his Vice President Kamala Harris would be up to the job of tackling Trump (the insinuation being that Joe fell by the wayside somehow).  Biden didn't take offence at the suggestion, but he got his names diametrically confused a second time in referring to his VP as 'Vice President Trump'.

The two incidents led to widespread mockery and will have done nothing to assuage wave upon wave of attack dogs baying for his exit from the presidential race.

As for Keir Starmer, the awkward questions didn't end with Joe's cognitive ability.  A couple of journalists pointed out that if Biden were a member of the House of Lords he would be kicked out under Labour plans to retire peers after their 80th birthday.  Joe is 81.

This article can be enjoyed in all its hilarious technicolour in the following YouTube compilation, enjoy...

OWN TRUMPET BLOWN

Prior to last week's election we made a series of seat forecasts numbering 51 in total.  The seats chosen were somewhat random, ranging from the glaringly obvious (Dave Lammy to hold Tottenham) to narrow marginals such as Chingford and Woodford Green.  With the Tory vote expected to crash, many seats became potential three-way contests drawing in a combination of parties.  The performance of Reform UK and the party's effect on the uniparty was viewed with particular interest.

A long standing prediction for Islington North was included in the list.  We predicted that Jeremy Corbyn would defeat Labour as an independent and we stood by it.  It was one of many outcomes we correctly predicted.

Overall, were we Mystic Mega accurate or staggeringly hopeless?

Aberafan Maesteg: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN (new seat) ✔

Airdrie & Shotts: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Ashfield: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Ashton-under-Lyne: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Banbury: Lab GAIN from Con  - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Basildon & Billericay: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Boston & Skegness: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Braintree: Con HOLD - Con HOLD  ✔

Bristol Central: Lab WIN (new seat) - Grn WIN (new seat) ✘

Castle Point: RefUK GAIN from Con -  - Con HOLD ✘

Chichester: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Clacton: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Derby North: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Doncaster Central: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Doncaster North: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Dumfries & Galloway: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

Edinburgh South West: SNP HOLD - Lab GAIN from SNP ✘

Glasgow North East: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Godalming & Ash: LDem WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✘

Great Yarmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✘

Fareham & Waterlooville: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Hartlepool: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Islington North: Ind GAIN from Lab - Ind GAIN from Lab ✔

Leeds West & Pudsey: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN  ✔

Leicester East: Lab HOLD  - Con GAIN from Lab ✘

Livingston: SNP HOLD  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✘

Louth & Horncastle: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

North Cornwall: LDem GAIN from Con  - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

North East Fife: LDem HOLD - LDem HOLD ✔

North West Essex: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

North West Leicestershire: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Portsmouth North: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Richmond & Northallerton: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Rochdale: WPB HOLD - Lab GAIN from WPB ✘

Rushcliffe: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Skipton & Ripon: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

South Ribble: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

South West Devon: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

South West Norfolk: Con HOLD - Lab GAIN from Con ✘

Stalybridge & Hyde: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Telford: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Tonbridge: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Tottenham: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Truro & Falmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Vale of Glamorgan: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

West Dorset: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Witney: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Wrexham: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Ynys Môn: Plaid GAIN from Con - Plaid GAIN from Con ✔

Politics is a funny old game and some of the predictions we were pretty confident about, surprised us.  For example, Leicester East was one of the most shocking results of the night.  Amid a sea of Labour gains, this urban constituency bucked the trend and fell to the Conservatives.  It was one of those seats where the Muslim population abandoned Labour, with independents polling strongly.  Two of those independents were former Labour MPs for Leicester East - Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe - both of whom largely discredited and ridiculed.  They actually polled rather well, with Vaz fifth on 7.9 per cent and Webbe fourth with 11.8 per cent.

Chingford and Woodford Green was another seat in which we underestimated the impact of an independent candidate.  We thought Iain Duncan Smith's slender majority was nailed on for Labour to overturn, but a controversial Labour selection saved IDS.  Labour's hard left candidate from 2019 - Faiza Shaheen - was ousted in favour of one of Starmer's moderates, but she decided to wreak vengeance by standing as an independent.  That she did, ending up just 78 votes shy of pushing Labour into third, robbing them of an easy gain.

Rochdale was another seat we called wrong.  With Muslim anger still raw, we expected George Galloway to hold.  He didn't.  Labour must have thrown the kitchen sink at this one.

Still, 74.5 per cent accuracy with our forecasts is not bad.  We suspect the next general election will be eminently harder to predict.

TOON TUESDAY #13

This week a selection of cartoons commemorating Labour's election victory and what comes next.

Bob Moran depicts the uniparty hand over, complete with WEF wrecking ball.  Steve Bright goes with Starmer and Reeves chopping down our green and pleasant land - ironically Bright's cataclysmic Starmer cartoon from last week was followed up two days later by his employers (The Sun) declaring for Labour!  Finally, Andy Davey for The Daily Telegraph, predicts that Nigel Farage will be a major thorn in Starmer's side...

DIANE RACE BAITS REFORM

Less than 72 hours into her new term as a Labour MP, Diane Abbott was back to her race baiting routine on Sunday.  The day after the England football team beat Switzerland on penalties, Abbott shared a montage of the five penalty takers on X, who all happened to be either black or mixed race.  She used this incidental fact in a bizarre swipe at Reform UK's immigration stance.

The penalty takers (from left to right) were Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Ivan Toney and Trent Alexander-Arnold - all of whom were born in England and only one of which is a second generation immigrant (Saka).  None of their parents, three of which are of native English descent, came on the boats that Nigel Farage and most of the British public are mostly concerned about.

X users were quick to lay into Diane, those whom she has not yet blocked (she blocked BTLP years ago).

If Abbott continues in this vein she will probably find herself sitting as an independent again, only this time she'll have to cross the floor and sit with the opposition - including Farage and the other Reform MPs!  At least she'll be able to sit with Jeremy...

Abbott is now the longest serving female MP in Westminster and succeeds her colleague Harriet Harman as the 'Mother of the House'.  Harman stood down at the election after 42 years in office.  On Thursday, Abbott was returned as the MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington with a drastically reduced majority.  Like her colleagues across London and other major cities, Abbott could only watch as her vote tally crashed.  Having amassed a colossal 39,972 votes and a 33,188 majority in 2019, Abbott picked up 24,355 on Thursday as her majority more than halved to 15,080.

If she can't keep her intolerant views to herself, we suspect a 75-year-old Abbott will be fighting the next election as an independent.

HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS

Gaza, a low turnout and Jeremy Corbyn give Starmer a headache

In the early hours of Thursday the newly re-elected member for Holborn and St Pancras stood up at the podium to deliver his victory speech.  He appeared strangely subdued, downbeat even, considering he had just held his seat for the third successive election.  Keir Starmer knew what was happening around the country and he was acutely aware of what had just transpired in his own constituency.

When the exit poll landed at 22:00 hours, Starmer and his party would have surely been delighted.  Then the first results started to trickle in and as the night wore on it became clear that Labour were winning with fewer votes.  The long anticipated landslide was happening not so much on Labour's merit, as it was the Tory vote was crumbling harder.  There were also a series of other factors in Labour's poor return and Starmer's seat was a prime example.

Holborn and St Pancras was created in 1983 and has been red ever since.  New Labour's Frank Dobson held the seat up to 2010, before Starmer replaced him at the 2015 election.  Starmer's majority in 2017, at 30,509, was the highest ever Labour majority in this seat.  It fell slightly in 2019 to 27,763, but in 2024 - the year of the Labour landslide - it crashed.

In 2019 Starmer scored an impressive 64.5 per cent vote share with 36,641 votes.  On Thursday he received just 18,884 votes and 48.9 per cent.  This came about despite the collapse in the Tory vote.  They finished second in 2019, but dropped to fourth behind an independent and the Greens.  The independent candidate (and a reduced turnout) was key to Starmer's disappearing vote.

The independent candidate, who surged straight into second place on Thursday, was one of dozens of Gaza enthusiasts who took on Labour in cities and Muslim-dominated mill towns up and down the country.  Don't let his Jewish surname fool you, Feinstein is a former member of the communist ANC in his native South Africa.  He moved to London in 2001 and joined Labour under Corbyn's leadership.  He resigned in protest at Starmer's direction and stood against him primarily on a Gaza/Palestine platform.

If the Palestine issue is still live come the next election, Labour could be in real trouble in their heartlands - and that includes Starmer himself in Holborn.  Gaza independents hammered Labour's vote in the big cities and northern mill towns, taking seats from Labour in Leicester (bye Jon Ashworth), Birmingham (cheerio Khalid Mahmood), Blackburn and Dewsbury.  Labour's rising star Wes Streeting scraped to victory over another Gaza independent by a wafer thin majority of 528.  Other Gaza enthusiasts such as George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain also damaged Labour's vote in key areas.

Starmer had good reason to be subdued and reticent in his celebration of Labour's landslide victory.  Questions remain over the fairness of a democracy in which Reform UK received more votes and a larger share than the Lib Dems, but ended up with five seats compared to 72 Lib Dems.  On a more personal note for Starmer, he will also be well aware that his Labour garnered less votes at this election than Corbyn's Labour received at both 2017 and 2019.  And worse still, Corbyn will be back in Westminster to haunt his successor for the next five years...

EXIT POLL

It has just gone 22:00 on polling day and the exit poll has been released...

If this is to prove fairly accurate there are a few surprises here.

The Tories have outperformed expectations and as such the Labour landslide is not as devastating as previously thought.  If Reform do pick up more than ten seats that is an astonishing result.  Finally, the SNP reduced to ten seats?  A crushing blow for separatism!

A FINAL SLATE OF SEAT FORECASTS

We are aiming to get at least 50 seat predictions in before polling closes at 22:00.  Here are some more we've looked at today...

Ashfield

One to watch and tricky to call.  Ex-Labour councillor Lee Anderson was elected a Tory MP in 2019 and has since defected to Reform UK.  Ashfield is historically a Labour seat, but they were pushed into third in 2019 by a local independent who is standing again, despite awaiting trial on multiple criminal charges.  A lot of votes could be up for grabs there and if Anderson can take votes from both Labour and the Tories, he could take this seat.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Ashton-under-Lyne

Considering she is deputy leader (with aspirations to be PM we strongly suspect), Angela Rayner is in possession of a relatively small majority of 4,263.  However, because her main challenger in 2019 was the Conservative candidate, she is going to be safe, regardless of George Galloway's threats to oust her with his Workers Party of Britain candidate.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Basildon & Billericay

A relatively new seat, created in 2010 and held by the Conservatives since.  Tory chair Richard Holden will try and defend a 20,412 majority over Labour, but in previous elections it was much closer.  There is strong Brexit support here and Holden could potentially fall to Reform.  It's going to be close and Labour could sneak it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Boston & Skegness

A blue seat since its creation in 1997, the Tory incumbent will attempt to defend his 25,621 majority against major challenges from Labour and Reform.  Richard Tice is standing for Reform and will desperately want to join Farage in the Commons.  This will be a tight three-way, but we see Tice narrowly victorious.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Braintree

The Home Secretary's seat has been blue since 2005 and Mr Cleverly will be defending a 24,673 majority.  Labour will run him close here, but not close enough in our opinion.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Castle Point

This Essex seat is traditionally blue and the incumbent is defending a lofty 26,634 majority.  The challengers here could be Reform and there is a healthy history of Euroscepticism.  Reform will win a handful of seats at best today, but we believe this will be one of them.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Chingford & Woodford Green

Iain Duncan Smith has held this London seat since 1992, but from 2010 onwards his majority has shrunk at each successive election.  He is now in ultra marginal territory with just a 1,262 advantage over Labour in 2019.  One wonders why he didn't stand down at this election and maintain some dignity.  Is he hoping for another punt at the Tory leadership?  He's toast.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Derby North

This seat changed has hands between incumbent Amanda Solloway and Labour crank Chris Williamson several times.  Solloway is defending a marginal 2,540 majority.  There's no Williamson this time, so the Labour victor will be a new MP.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Doncaster Central

A Labour seat since its creation in 1983, Doncaster Central is vacated by the retiring Rosie Winterton.  She clung on in 2019 with a dramatically reduced majority of 2,278 and a successful governing party would be looking to take this seat.  However, the Tories are non-starters and the main challenger will be Reform UK.  They could spring an upset here and it will be close.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Fareham & Waterlooville

A new seat comprising mostly of the old Fareham constituency, this was a seat that always voted Conservative.  Suella Braverman has been the MP since 2015 and would be a prized scalp for the left here.  Her majority in 2019 was an impressive 26,086 and it's probably going to be too much for either Labour or the Lib Dems to overcome.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Great Yarmouth

An ancient constituency that has been represented by Tory Brandon Lewis since 2010.  Despite a 17,663 majority, Lewis didn't fancy his chances this time and stood down.  Reform will poll well here, but we've got this turning red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Hartlepool

Before things turned bad for Boris, there was the Hartlepool by-election, which returned a Tory victor for the first time in its history.  That victory will be short-lived as this seat is reverting to red.  The Conservatives could be pushed into third by Reform here.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Leicester East

This seat has produced some toxic MPs from Labour, namely Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe, who are both standing as independents.  Webbe's majority in 2019 was 6,019, but the second placed Tories are no challengers here.  Labour hold all day long.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Louth & Horncastle

Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, incumbent Victoria Adkins has a whopping majority of 28,868.  For Labour to win it would present a huge swing and they'll probably come close.  Reform will get a big vote here too, potentially creating a three-way contest.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

North West Essex

If the (not at all racist) left were to see Braverman out, they would be punching the air if they got Kemi Badenoch too.  This is a new seat formed mostly from Badenoch's Saffron Walden constituency from which she obtained an impressive 27,594 majority in 2019.  That seat had been held by a Tory since 1929.  Labour and the Lib Dems will cancel each other out here, leaving Badenoch to hold on.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

North West Leicestershire

Big pharma foe Andrew Bridgen has held this seat for the Conservatives since 2010, before which it had spent the entire Blair/Brown years with a Labour MP.  Bridgen's majority in 2019 was 20,400 and his successor will be hoping to hold for the Tories (Bridgen is standing as an independent).  Two important factors here are how many Tory voters will jump ship for Bridgen and how many Lab-Con voters will jump ship for Reform?  This could be a potential three-way tussle between the Tories, Reform and Labour.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Rochdale

All the big three parties have held Rochdale at some point or another, but it was George Galloway who was victorious in the by-election earlier this year with a 5,697 majority.  He and his Workers Party of Britain have been the focus of a sustained smear campaign by Labour and their allies during this campaign and on that basis alone we hope he holds.  Labour were some way off in the by-election, but by-elections are not the same as general elections.  Still, we fancy Gaza Galloway to cling on by the skin of his teeth.

BTLP seat prediction: WPB HOLD

Rushcliffe

Ken Clarke gained this seat from Labour in 1970 and may have held it beyond 2019 were it not for his Brexit hissy fit.  His successor will be defending a 7,643 majority and is a likely casualty to the red wave.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Skipton & Ripon

This Yorkshire seat has been blue since its creation in 1983 and the incumbent believes he can win again.  Julian Smith has a 23,694 majority over Labour, but all the talk here is about Reform.  They are debutants, but UKIP have polled very strongly in the past.  They would need to take a lot of votes off both Labour and the Tories.  Very tricky to call, but the Tories may cling on by a thread.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

South Ribble

This Lancastrian seat has been held by the Conservatives since 2010 and the incumbent fancies her chances with a 11,199 majority.  Reform will poll strongly here, but it will be Labour who enjoy the spoils.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Devon

Gary Streeter was the Tory MP for this seat since 1997, but he clearly didn't fancy his chances this time round - despite a 21,430 majority.  We see this one turning red for the first time ever.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Norfolk

It's a crowded ballot paper for this seat and it's little wonder.  Our short-lived premier Liz Truss is fighting on for her place on the Westminster gravy train, despite her recent embrace of actual real conservatism.  Still carrying a Tory flag, she will try and defend an otherwise healthy 26,195 majority.  It's a big swing for Labour to pull this off and the presence of Reform could be a deciding factor.  We predict a paper thin hold for Liz.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Telford

Telford turned blue in 2015 and its MP built it from a marginal to a 10,941 majority in 2019.  Reform will poll well here and could push the Tories into third.  This seat is reverting to red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

West Dorset

It will come as no surprise to find that this affluent-sounding seat has been blue since 1885.  Strangely, there's no Reform candidate here, which may help the incumbent fight off his Lib Dem challenger.  Chris Loder is defending a 14,106 majority, but we don't foresee success for him.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

CELTIC CALCULATIONS

Polling day is here and we'll be churning out some more quickfire seat predictions before polls close.  Here we'll take a look at some of the intriguing contests taking place in the Celtic nations of Great Britain.  We won't be delving into Northern Ireland, as those seats will not have a direct bearing on who enters government tomorrow.

Here we go...

SCOTLAND

Airdrie & Shotts

Narrowly held by the SNP since 2015, this marginal was the scene of a by-election in 2021 in which the young candidate (a former general secretary of Muslim Friends of Labour) emerged with a 1,757 majority.  It's too narrow a margin for a party in decline and Labour will take this one.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Dumfries & Galloway

Since its creation in 2005, this seat has been held by Labour (2005-15), the SNP (2015) and since 2017 by the Conservatives.  Its MP Alister Jack is one of many Tories who jumped ship at this election, sensing the inevitable.  However, a Tory loss is not set in stone.  They have a small majority of 1,805, but that is against the declining SNP.  Labour were a distant third in 2019, but could potentially surge through the pair of them.  Debutants Reform could be king makers here.  Tough one to call...

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Edinburgh South West

SNP bigwig Joanna Cherry won Alistair Darling's old seat from Labour in 2015 and is now defending an 11,982 majority.  The Tories have finished runners-up here since 2017, leaving Labour with a mountain to climb to dislodge Cherry.  Cherry will hang on, probably.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

Glasgow North East

Glasgow used to be a Labour stronghold, but that all changed in 2015 when the SNP swept the board and won every seat.  Since then, only Glasgow North East has changed hands - Labour regained it in 2017 and then lost it again in 2019.  The SNP will be defending a marginal 2,548 majority this time round and given all their recent woes this has Labour gain written all over it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Livingston

This is going to be a tussle between Labour and the incumbent SNP.  Hannah Bardell is defending a 13,435 majority, but the question is how many of her voters will abandon the SNP and revert back to the party that held this seat prior to 2015?  The result is likely to be very tight here.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

North East Fife

The Lib Dems have held this seat at every election since 1987, with the exception of 2015 and 2017, the latter of which the SNP held it with a majority of just two votes.  The Lib Dems are defending a majority of 1,316 today, but with the SNP in decline and no other clear challengers - they're clear favourites.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem HOLD

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

This is an intriguing contest between two struggling parties.  The SNP gained this seat in 2015 from the Lib Dems, but lost it to the Tories in 2017.  The Tory incumbent defends a tiny majority of just 843 votes going into this election and it's difficult to see the second placed SNP not retaking it.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP GAIN from Con

WALES

Vale of Glamorgan

This seat has repeatedly changed hands over the years between Tories and Labour, albeit the Conservatives have held it longer overall.  Tory incumbent Alun Cairns has held the seat since 2010 and thinks he can win again, despite a relatively small majority of 3,562.  The Reform vote could be decisive here, tipping the balance either way.  Despite discontent with Drakeford and Gething, Labour will just about take this.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Wrexham

This was a surprise gain for the Conservatives in 2019 and they are defending a marginal 2,131 majority.  The incumbent clearly thinks she has a chance this time, but she is almost certainly a goner.  Voter discontent with Labour in Cardiff won't save her.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Ynys Môn

Anglesey (its English name) has gone through cycles over the decades - Labour (1951-79), Conservative (1979-87), Plaid (1987-2001), Labour (2001-2019), Conservative (2019).  It was a tight three-way contest in 2019, with the Tories victorious on a narrow 1,968 majority.  This time around it will be a two-horse race between Labour and Plaid.  Very difficult to call this one, but we feel that Reform are going to take votes from Labour and give Plaid Cymru the win.

BTLP seat prediction: Plaid GAIN from Con

CORNWALL

North Cornwall

Scott Mann has held this seat for the Tories since 2015, winning it from the Lib Dems.  Mann is defending a 14,752 majority over the Lib Dems and this could be a tight contest.  It will be interesting to see what bearing Reform's debut presence has on the outcome, but the result will likely be a Tory defeat.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

Truro & Falmouth

This constituency was drawn up in 2010 and has returned a Conservative MP at every subsequent election, peaking with a 14,000 majority in 2015.  The Tory majority being defended this time is 4,561 and second placed Labour will be looking to overturn it.  They will.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

THE WEFMINSTER SEVEN

Polling day is almost upon us now and we're trying to squeeze in as many seat predictions as we can.  We posted the above meme to Facebook earlier today, leaving some wondering if it was possible to get rid of any of these committed globalists at all.  We've already covered Ed Miliband's seat, so here we will do a very quick rundown of the other seven featured in the meme.

Leeds West & Pudsey

Technically a new seat, Labour's Rachel Reeves will be hoping to build on the 10,564 majority she received in her previous constituency of Leeds West.  With only the Conservative candidate anywhere near her in 2019, she is likely to be returned fairly easily.  Reform will poll well here and could push the crumbling Tories into third place.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

Stalybridge & Hyde

Held by Labour since 1945, this seat became a marginal in 2019 as Labour's Jonathan Reynolds clung on with a 2,946 majority.  The Tories were the only challengers in 2019, but Reform could push them into third place on Thursday.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Godalming & Ash

This is a new constituency resulting from major boundary changes.  Jeremy Hunt has opted to contest this seat, succeeding the abolished South West Surrey constituency, from which he received an 8,817 majority in 2019.  The Lib Dems were resurgent in that election and while we believe the PM is safe in Richmond, the Chancellor is toast in Godalming.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem WIN (new seat)

Tottenham

A red seat since 1964, Dave Lammy defending a 30,175 majority, no significant challengers to speak of - hands down easy hold for the soon-to-be Foreign Secretary.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Aberafan Maesteg

Another new seat largely formed from Stephen Kinnock's old seat of Aberavon, which he had held since 2015 and signed off with a 10,490 majority in 2019.  While Labour won't poll quite as strongly in Wales as it will in England, the Kinnock dynasty is set to continue in Westminster with no significant challengers to him.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

Tonbridge

Previously known as Tonbridge & Malling, Bilderberg regular Tom Tugendhat obtained an impressive 26,941 majority in 2019.  The boundary changes slightly favour him, with Labour and the Lib Dems likely fighting it out for second place.  Tugendhat will be one of few Tories to save a spot on the WEFminster gravy train and he and his masters will be eyeing up the leadership position, if not now - for the future.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Portsmouth North

Penny Mordaunt will defend a 15,780 majority here on Thursday, having held the seat since 2010 when she gained it from Labour.  This is going to be a tight race between Mordaunt and Labour, with the presence of newcomers Reform likely to decide the contest.  If they take votes from Labour, they could save Mordaunt, but it's unlikely to be enough.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Look out for more BTLP seat predictions on polling day.

NEVER LABOUR, NEVER GREEN

In decades past, a vote for the Green Party was often seen as a harmless protest vote.  Voters saw it as both rejecting the status quo, but doing their bit for the environment in the process.  That was back in the days when the Greens couldn't win and some of their policies were bordering on sensible.

Fast forward to the 21st century and the Greens are now a far left outfit with extremist policies, many of which do nothing for the environment and undermine our green and pleasant land.  They are very much like Labour, except they are straight up and honest about their ill intent.  They are advocating for abolishing our borders altogether at this election.  And as we see with the left as a whole, they are so blinded by ideology that they cannot perceive a conflict in simultaneously embracing both Islamists and the Alphabet People.

Satirical website The Upper Lip has produced a hilarious video mocking the Greens (see below), complete with smug middle class commentator.

The Greens have also now entered the House of Commons, with Caroline Lucas having been the MP for Brighton Pavilion since 2010.  They are also odds on favourites to win Bristol Central at this election, doubling their number of Westminster seats in the process (this would actually unseat the Brit-hating Labour incumbent Thangam Debbonaire, so not all bad!)

A Green victory in Bristol Central would be an impressive result, with Debbonaire defending an otherwise comfortable majority of 28,219.  She has been the MP for the seat's predecessor Bristol West since 2015, prior to which it spent ten years as a Lib Dem seat.  The boundary changes favour the Greens, who earlier this year won every available council in this newly formed constituency.  They are now the largest party on Bristol City Council and the city is fast becoming one of Britain's premier far left strongholds.

But can hideous lesbian midget Carla Denyer triumph over Debbonaire?  This is one of the most difficult seats to call, a very tight two-horse race in which the Greens have thrown everything at.  Will it be enough?  We are going to buck all polling and betting odds to suggest that Debbonaire will cling on here.  Six candidates are standing, including the awesome Kellie-Jay Keen for the Party of Women (that is, actual biological females, and not the make believe women that Labour and the Greens advocate for).

Robert Clarke (RefUK)

Nicholas Coombes (LDem)

Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)

Carla Denyer (Grn)

Kellie-Jay Keen (Wom)

Samuel Williams (Con)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

RISHI'S RICHMOND BLUES?

Rishi will say farewell to Number Ten, but what of his constituency?

Two things are nailed on certainties in this election - the Tories will be hammered and Rishi Sunak will resign as party leader on Friday.  Sunak will rightly take the blame for his party's utter humiliation, but it was actually his predecessor Boris Johnson who bears much of the responsibility.  Johnson made it all too easy for the media to hang him out to dry following the shitshow of the scamdemic, during which he descended us towards a globalist Hell of nanny state absurdity.

After the all-too-brief intermission of Liz Truss, Sunak never looked like reversing the Tories' poll deficit.  He continued Johnson's lurch to the left of Labour, failed to stop the boats and was almost less inspiring than Keir Starmer himself.  On Friday he will be replaced by his dull opponent Starmer in one of the most absurd electoral turnarounds in history.  An 80 seat majority will not just be turned on its head, it will be ground into dust.

Rishi will leave Downing Street, but will he maintain his place on a Westminster gravy train that is small fry to Sunak?  Five years on the backbenches may turn out to be a distraction for one of the richest men in Britain and we strongly suspect he won't see it through.  That is, of course, were he to hold onto his seat...

Following a relatively minor boundary change, Richmond in North Yorkshire has been remodelled as Richmond and Northallerton for this election.  A mostly rural and affluent constituency, it is perhaps very apt that mega rich Rishi was parachuted in here to replace William Hague in 2015.  The Tories have held Richmond since 1910 and Sunak is defending a 27,210 majority from 2019, which is the biggest ever Tory majority in the seat's history.

Labour have been a distant second here in the last two elections and it is hard to see them mount a serious challenge.  Reform will be contesting this seat for the first time and will likely poll well, but are no threat to Sunak's majority.  Rich boy is likely to hold, but we expect him to stand down within two or three years when he tires of political play.

As one would expect for a sitting Prime Minister, the ballot paper in Richmond is a long one.  The usual jokers are there - Binface and the Loons - plus three independents, the Yorkshire Party and a somewhat odd appearance from George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain.  The workers' revolution is not likely to find too many roots in Richmond and Northallerton.

Jason Barnett (Ind)

Count Binface (Bin)

Daniel Callaghan (LDem)

Angie Campion (Ind)

Louise Dickens (WPB)

Kevin Foster (Grn)

Rio Goldhammer (Yrks)

Niko Omilana (Ind)

Brian Richmond (Ind)

Sir Archibald Stanton (Loon)

Rishi Sunak (Con)

Lee Taylor (RefUK)

Tom Wilson (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

CAN FARAGE WIN CLACTON?

Farage made the most of the milkshake incident during his campaign launch

Can he?  Well, put it this way - if Nigel Farage does not enter the House of Commons at this election, he may never get a better chance.  Reform UK simply must deliver at this election, and that means not just gathering millions of votes and dozens of second places - they must actually win seats.  Their newly reappointed leader must also be one of Reform's victors.

It's a big ask in our two party system for a small party to break through.  The Greens have been going for decades and are still only expected to win one, maybe two seats at this election.  Reform UK have only been around since 2019 and are yet to win a UK Parliamentary election.  Polling suggests they could win a handful of seats on Thursday and anything upward of five in our view would be absolutely stunning.  They could then spend the next five years going full tilt at every by-election, building momentum to quite possibly replace the Conservatives at the next election.  Some believe they could replace them at this election...

Clacton has significant history with Eurosceptic parties, having elected a UKIP member in the 2014 by-election.  Douglas Carswell held the seat for UKIP in the 2015 general election, but his relationship with then leader Farage soured and he had left the party by 2017.  UKIP lost the seat in that election and it was the last time a Leave party contested Clacton, until now.

With no UKIP or Brexit Party candidate in 2019, the Tories extended their lead over Labour and will go into this election defending a very healthy 24,702 majority.  Former actor Giles Watling has been the MP since 2017 and is standing again this time.

Labour would have a sniff here were it not for the Farage circus, but this is a two-horse race and Reform will go head to head with the Tories.  Nine candidates are on the ballot.  Will UKIP and the Heritage Party take enough votes from Reform to save the Conservatives?  Doubtful.

Matthew Bensilum (LDem)

Nigel Farage (RefUK)

Craig Jamieson (Clim)

Tony Mack (Ind)

Natasha Osben (Grn)

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (Lab)

Tasos Papanastasiou (Herit)

Andrew Pemberton (UKIP)

Giles Watling (Con)

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

CLARKSON: ANYONE, BUT LABOUR

Jeremy Clarkson hit out at Labour last month in his column for The Sun, in which he declared them lacking a 'single redeeming feature'.  In his article he explored his conundrum as to who he should vote for in the looming election.  He dedicated a sentence or two to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform, gave very little positive feedback on the Tories, before laying into Labour and failing to endorse any of them.

Clarkson appeals to certain demographics in Britain, one of which is certainly those of us who the left racially abuse as 'gammon'.  Middle class conservatives are at ease with Clarkson, his affluent lifestyle and politically incorrect views are a comfort to them in a world where the left police speech.  We at BTLP have always regarded him and his Top Gear chums as a safety valve for the Beeb, a vehicle for which they can still draw in conservative-minded viewers and claim to be 'balanced'.

Clarkson himself tries to maintain a balance when it comes to his political views.  More often than not, he has promoted conservative and libertarian values, but he also continues to defend a totalitarian European Union and even endorsed Keir Starmer's Labour back in 2020.  His latest article turns that endorsement on its head, while at the same time he joins the Labour leader in his favoured spot seated on top of the fence.  The full article is reprinted below.

Like almost every normal person in Britain, I’m struggling to work out which way I should vote in the forthcoming election.

Here in the Cotswolds, many houses are festooned with Lib Dem posters, and I can see why.

They’ve promised to take us back into Europe and, as a Remainer, I can see the appeal of that.

But then we have Reform, and the fact is that when Lee Anderson opens his mouth on TikTok, I often find myself nodding quietly and thinking: "Well, he does have a point."

So what about the Greens?  Sure, they have some absolutely mad policies on most things, but they do say, and this appeals to me, that they would like cleaner rivers and better soil.

The Tories?  Tricky one this.  For the past few years they’ve been pretty much useless.

Cowed by a fear of social media into a state of near paralysis, they’ve steered us into a world where the trains, the roads, the airports, the NHS and border control just don’t work any more.

And Mr Rishi leaving the D-Day events in France was incomprehensible.

But their heart’s in the right place on taxes and economic stability, and that’s important.

So now we arrive at the Labour Party, and I’m sorry, but I cannot find a single redeeming feature.

In the entire campaign so far, not a single candidate has said one word that I agree with.

They want open borders, zero growth and everyone living in a bucket of shame because their great great grandad once bought a hairbrush that had possibly been made by slaves.

Their manifesto contains just 87 words on farming. Which, when translated into English basically say: “We hate you, you meat-eating rural halfwits.”

It’s even been suggested that inheritance tax will have to be paid on farm land.

Which means that in about 20 years’ time, there will be no farm land.

And therefore no food, apart from in all the town-centre, nuclear-free, South African peace stores, where you will be able to buy sustainable tofu.

I get, of course, that people are fed up with the Tories, but I’d rather vote for my dog than Sir Starmer’s merry bunch of ideological nincompoops.

Half of them don’t know what a woman is, and now it transpires Starmer himself can’t even define the working class.

He thinks it has something to do with people who work.  But King Charles works, you idiot.

Working class is a state of mind.  It’s a community spirit.  It has nothing to do with whether you work or not.

What I hate most of all about Labour, though, is that they believe that if you work hard all your life and make some savings to tide you over in your old age, those savings are theirs.

And that they should be given to people who haven’t worked at all.

Which is why, come polling day, I’m praying there’s a box on the ballot paper which says: "Anyone but Labour."

Clarkson's Diddly Squat Farm is located in the Oxfordshire constituency of Banbury (previously Witney).  As we are currently meting out our predictions for various constituencies this Thursday, it is perhaps an apt moment to lend our forecast for Banbury (and Witney).

The latest boundary review finds Clarkson's farm, south of the small Cotswold town of Chipping Norton, transferred from Witney to Banbury this time around.  Both constituencies are traditionally Tory seats.  Banbury has returned a Conservative MP since 1922, Witney since its creation in 1983, albeit the latter did have a Labour MP briefly when Tory MP Shaun Woodward crossed the floor to Labour in 1999.  The Tories took the seat back in 2001 with a candidate by the name of David Cameron...

The future PM rebuilt the Tory majority in Witney from an all-time low of 7,028 in 1997.  By 2015 he had more than quadrupled it to 25,155, but that was its peak.  The best it would get after that was 21,241 in 2017 and it currently stands at 15,177.

The Tory majority in Banbury also had to be rebuilt after 1997 and currently stands at 16,813.  Both sitting Tory MPs believe they can hold these seats, but can they?

It's a crowded field in Banbury with both the Greens and Climate Party standing, as well as Reform and the SDP (despite a supposed deal that they would not go head to head).  Banbury is very tricky to call as it looks set to be a tight three-way battle between the Tories, Lib-Dems and Labour.

Banbury candidates 2024

Liz Adams (LDem)

Arron Baker (Grn)

Cassi Bellingham (Ind)

Chris Nevile (Clim)

Victoria Prentis (Con)

Declan Soper (SDP)

Paul Topley (RefUK)

Sean Woodcock (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Seven candidates are competing in Witney, including a rare outing for David Kurten's Heritage Party.  This will be a straight fight between the Tories and Lib Dems.

Witney candidates 2024

Robert Courts (Con)

David Cox (Herit)

Barry Ingleton  (Ind)

Richard Langridge (RefUK)

Charles Maynard (LDem)

Andrew Prosser (Grn)

Antonio Weiss (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

TOON TUESDAY #12

We continue the Starmer theme this week thanks to a foreboding effort from Steve Bright for The Sun newspaper.  We can certainly agree with his dark interpretation of what is about to come.  Take a deep breath everyone...

THE TRAVESTY OF DONCASTER NORTH

Ed Miliband (left) and his depiction as Wallace by cartoonist Peter Brookes

Last week we posted a throwaway meme to Facebook featuring Ed Miliband.  One of the comments read: "Rumours have it, he might lose his seat."  This piqued our interest and we looked into it, eagerly anticipating a potential upset.  Unfortunately, we found the exact opposite.

Ed's seat Doncaster North was drawn up in 1983 and has been held by Labour ever since.  The three seats from which this constituency was created had also previously returned Labour MPs dating back to 1964 (Doncaster), 1922 (Don Valley) and 1950 (Goole).  Doncaster North is a mostly rural area, incorporating a small part of Doncaster itself and several towns and villages to the north and west.

Miliband has been the MP here since 2005.  His majority peaked in 2017 with 14,024, but then crashed to an all time low in 2019 of just 2,370.  Now a marginal seat, it's easy to see why someone would assume Ed is now vulnerable. He's not...

The Tories nearly always finish second here, as they did in 2019.  However, in order to win they would need Labour to lose votes and in the very least hold their own.  That is simply not going to happen, with Miliband set to gain votes as the Tories lose thousands.  There could have been another challenger to Miliband this time around, but sadly it's not to be.

The Red Wall overwhelmingly voted Leave in 2016 and as such, there is a healthy Euro-sceptic vote in Doncaster.  The only year the Tories were pushed into third was 2015, when UKIP garnered an impressive vote share of 22.6 per cent.  With an EU referendum secured, their vote dropped significantly in 2017, but then the Brexit Party scored big here in 2019.

With Brexit now under threat from opposition parties stalling the process, the Tories came close to unseating Remainer Miliband.  This was not so much through increasing their own vote as the collapse in Labour's vote.  Ed lost just shy of 10,000 votes, while the Tories gained 1,683 votes.  The large majority of Miliband's AWOL voters went to the third placed Brexit Party.  The newcomers received an impressive 8,294 votes and 20.4 per cent.

The Brexit Party vote in Doncaster North was their fourth best result across the country and one upon which they could have built on this time around, taking votes from the Tories as well as Labour.  However, they have bizarrely opten not to field a candidate this time, apparently due to a deal they made with the Social Democratic Party in which the two parties would not contest the same seats.  As the SDP did not stand stand in Doncaster North in 2019, this decision is mind-numbingly dumb and if Reform did manage to win seats at this election (big ask) Doncaster North could have been one of them.  There are no other potential threats to Miliband to speak of and the SDP itself would do well to get one per cent of the vote, as they traditionally tend to finish last or at the lower end of the table.

It's a crowded ballot in Doncaster North with nine candidates standing on Thursday, including candidates from the Party of Women, the British Democrats, Yorkshire Party and trade unionists (TUSC).

Dave Bettney (SDP)

Glenn Bluff (Con)

Catherine Briggs (Wom)

Frank Calladine (BDem)

Christopher Dawson (Yrks)

Jonathan Harston (LDem)

Andy Hiles (TUSC)

Ed Miliband (Lab)

Tony Nicholson (Gren)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

REFORM SURPRISE FOR BASTANI

The dullest man on the left was in the Tory stronghold of Chichester this week for his communist media outlet Novara Media.  Aaron Bastani was voxpopping residents in the Sussex town and asking them various questions about the looming election.  After speaking to various older residents who voiced a variety of opinions, Bastani appears to be dumbfounded when he speaks to some younger people who all give Reform UK the thumbs up.

Two lads who appear to be unknown to each other both express support for Reform.  One of them vents about getting 'rid of Rishi Sunak', while the other lad - who is mixed race - refers to the PM as 'a mug'.  Bastani is particularly intrigued by the latter, given his racial background (the left, as ever, fascinated by race).  He says that Reform would give 'actual English citizens a voice in what happens in this country'.  Bastani then speaks to two young girls, one of which says 'everyone around [Chichester] is very into it [Reform UK]'.  She puts the apparent fervour down to TikTok videos, which have featured teens from other areas talking up Reform.

Watch the clip below.

In the full 22 minute video on YouTube, Bastani uncovers support for the Lib Dems, Tories and Reform UK - not so much for Labour in this seat.  A Scottish couple who said they had always voted Conservative, said they were both thinking about voting for Reform.  Another lifelong Tory said he was so fed up that he was not going to bother voting at all.  An old lefty expressed delusion with our entire system of democracy and said he wasn't voting either.

During the remainder of the campaign we'll be lending our predictions for various seats and where better to begin than Chichester itself...

The constituency is so old that it predates the creation of both Great Britain and the United Kingdom by several hundred years, having first been established in 1295.  The Conservatives have held the seat for the entire 20th and 21st centuries, aside from 1923 when it was briefly gained by the Liberals, but held for just ten months.  Prior to that the seat had been represented by a Conservative MP since 1837.

It's an impressive record and Gillian Keegan goes into this election defending a 21,490 majority.  The Tory majority has decreased over the last two elections, from a peak in 2015 of 24,413.  We expect it to crumble at this forthcoming election and the seat will change hands.  The Lib Dems, who pushed Labour into third in 2019, appear to be the main challengers.  Reform are starting from scratch, having not fielded a candidate here previously.

There are six candidates in Chichester this time around, as follows.

Jess Brown-Fuller (LDem)

Tom Collinge (Lab)

Teresa De Santis (Ref UK)

Andrew Emerson (Ind)

Gillian Keegan (Con)

Tim Young (Grn)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con